WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[AvatarVecna]

As far as I'm concerned, AV has claimed Vig hard enough that going 'jk' isn't enough and I will vote there if they try to backtrack without a real good explanation.

The temptation to respond flippantly is almost overwhelming. Instead I'll just vote CaoimhinTheCape, because someone constantly tracking votes makes it harder to manipulate wagons.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

The temptation to respond flippantly is almost overwhelming. Instead I'll just vote CaoimhinTheCape, because someone constantly tracking votes makes it harder to manipulate wagons.

Wait, what? Isn't it good that it's harder for mafia to manipulate wagons?

Also, as a time check, we've got about 8 hours left of Day, if I'm counting right?

---

Let'sGetKraken (2): Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (3): Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Persolus (1): Cazero
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (3): Let'sGetKraken, Murska, Illven
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Batcathat, AvatarVecna
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

[Athedia]

I look over my cards, and think for a moment as I light another cigarette.

I ponder what all the commotion is about, but I just hit here, so no need to get in everyone’s business.

I look up at Athedia.

“Hit me.”

Athedia frowned disapprovingly at the cigarette but didn't say anything as she laid down another card.

Spoiler: Lentrax

Show

🂦🃄🂶

[AvatarVecna]

Wait, what? Isn't it good that it's harder for mafia to manipulate wagons?

Also, as a time check, we've got about 8 hours left of Day, if I'm counting right?

---

Let'sGetKraken (2): Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (3): Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Persolus (1): Cazero
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (3): Let'sGetKraken, Murska, Illven
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Batcathat, AvatarVecna
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

My post probably makes more sense if you know that I'm a wolf fake claiming vig to cover my tracks if anyone sees me kill the seer.

[JeenLeen]

I've been busy today so haven't 100% comprehended everything when the wagons were changing, but AV as a lead wagon again has my attention.

The temptation to respond flippantly is almost overwhelming. Instead I'll just vote CaoimhinTheCape, because someone constantly tracking votes makes it harder to manipulate wagons.

Wait, what? Isn't it good that it's harder for mafia to manipulate wagons?

Cao's point is a good one.
AV, did you mean that?

My post probably makes more sense if you know that I'm a wolf fake claiming vig to cover my tracks if anyone sees me kill the seer.

Taking what you said as a joke, but I figured you were
1) wolf wanting to set up an alibi for being seen NKing
2) a serial killer with similar motive
3) actual vig and annoyed about it
4) <redacted since if true I don't wanna state it in case the wolves haven't thought of it>

If 1 or 2, you're a good lynch target.
If 3, well, you are a potentially useful townie but, at least likely in your own estimation based on your known attitudes about vigilantes, it's not a terrible D1 lynch.
If 4, bad to lynch you. Level of bad varies on <redacted>.

In Hivemind, you noted I made a post about your role where it summed up to "AV is a role". I realize this is basically the same. What I really mean is I could see you posting what you did as any alignment and many roles.

Rereading your posts, I'm not sure if it sounds like a townie kinda okay with being the D1 lynch, or a wolf/serial killer trying not to be too defensive.

I think the thing I'm most surprised about so far is the fact that playing cards have corresponding unicode characters.
Also, I wonder if the title of the game has something to do with the bastard mechanic or the lucky number.

That's a good insight. Does anyone who has played Fallout 3 know if "Rapidly Changing Conditions" is an allusion to something?

[Snowblaze]

Okay. I have a little time for this game. I will skim-ISO people with votes on them and try to figure out who I want dead. If there's a particular player you want my thoughts on please ask!

[Athedia]

That's a good insight. Does anyone who has played Fallout 3 know if "Rapidly Changing Conditions" is an allusion to something?

"Heard tell of a kid, some kind of fortune teller almost. Calls himself the Forecaster. Sometimes he answers questions, gives the forecast for you."

She shrugged and shifted from foot to foot stretching out her legs.

"Course there is no three about that. South and a bit east of New Vegas. Though I would stay in here, much safer."

[Snowblaze]

Okay AV has yet to start doing any solvy stuff, and I could see them doing what they're doing rn as either alignment. Noting to Murska that AV would absolutely joke-fakeclaim vig as town in much this way imo.

Eh. There are worse options for killing D1. There are also probably better ones, I just don't know what they are yet.

- - - Updated - - -

Cazero's only post of note is this response to pressure:

Thoughts? From me? On day one?

Well. I don't think Athedia running some blackjack is a power thing.
A bit too early to be sure about what happened with flat.

shrug

I could argue that this is towny because it isn't trying to force reads and is fairly casual about the pressure, or that it's wolfy for just commenting on mechanics rather than trying to engage with his wagon or doing solvy stuff.

I think I probably believe the former slightly more but that holds basically zero weight so he's null rn.

[Murska]

Wait, really? We have a vig claim, they can prove themselves by shooting a wolf. If they're a SK, well, we can kill them if they shoot anywhere other than suspected wolves, so they're practically a vig until then. Why would we lynch there today?

I propose we don't aim for claimed town PRs day one. Really wish Cazero would be here to say something, but in their absence they're still a better target than any of the active posters imo. I can't push any wagon above AV anyway.

- - - Updated - - -

Thoughts? From me? On day one?

Well. I don't think Athedia running some blackjack is a power thing.
A bit too early to be sure about what happened with flat.

Oh, I missed this one.

Specifically, I want two things.

Why should we not kill you today?

Who should we kill specifically, let's say out of Kraken, Cao and AV as people with votes, plural. And why.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO

Show

One person out of the group looks around the casino, almost as if they're surprised to see themselves here. They look out of place with the usual gamblers here who are either suave and confident with their piles of caps or desperate with the few they have left.

They tip their straw cowboy hat in greeting and turn to the robot. "Lucky number 6 you say? I guess it ain't exactly my lucky number, I've always favored twelve. But I'm sure it would suit one of us here." They look over to Lentrax.

"Well, it is a pleasure to meet y'all. At least, I hope it will be." She folds her arms. "You see, it's not exactly easy out there. The Legion, Khans, Boomers, and all the smaller raiders causing trouble for people just trying to get by." They eye the group, trying to size everyone up. "Now I'm no good at seeing someone's allegiance, at least, not until they show their cards." She pulls up a chair at one of the tables. "But let's see I can't at least pick out what everyone's skilled at."

They nod to the robot. "Lucky number or no... care to deal us in?"




Ah, I see other people have mentioned the lucky number. It looks like it's meant to be something 0-7, so I'm wondering if hitting 7 means something? I had originally assumed it was player number, but seems like that's not the case.



That isn't loaded... is it?

Is that an actual gun/shot that you can use? Or just a joke?

For now... I'll set my sights on Let's Get Kracken


Votes
Kraken (2): Snowblaze, Cape
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (1): BatCatHat
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (1): Cazero
No Vote: Athedia, bladescape, MerelBlackbird, Illven, Lentrax, Persolus, Cuthalion, corncobweb, JeenLeen, LadySerpentine, Murska

RP, speculation on mechanics. Nothing much AI has happened so far so I can't fault the lack of solving. Probably NAI.

Guess I can be in as well.

Is this a mechanic thing or is it just for fun?

That's a very low-hanging-fruit question to ask... because there's a lot of town players who would ask it. So NAI.

Did someone do that?



In a bastard game? My policy Day 1 (or Night 1) is to make sure the Narrator isn't doing anything funny. With no reads on anyone, I like that kill (assuming "has been busted" is the kill wording).



With whatever happened there, I feel like we should all keep our wits about us. I won't be drinking today.



@Athedia I'll hold, I don't like my odds of pulling low enough to help.

As nice as this card game is, I think it might be time to shift toward figuring out what's going on here. I'll look back and see if there's anything I noticed so far.

So yeah, busy now, no vote count yet. I'll get another post later today.

hums to self NAI; if I squint there's a couple of points I could suspect but that feels pretty uncharitable rn.

I've heard a lot of different stories about couriers. Seems all the information conflicts. Not really sure what to make of 'em, but not really sure if they're relevant. Rumors say they're a free agent and no one really knows where they'll land. Haven't met them myself, so nothing to really back that up. You think this person is still around?



"Well, good mornin' sunshine. I'll give you your space if that's what you're looking for. But do you think that poor feller who got dragged away is still involved? Seemed a bit final to me."

Out of character, do you think voting flat is still relevant given this post?



Vote: Illven

"As much as I like this this little turtle lookin' creature... care to comment on the events so far?" She nods to Athedia. "As much as I appreciate your dealing cards, I've got you in my sights as well. What are you thinking 'bout our situation? I see your thoughts on Merel, but how about anyone else?"

Yeah, I'm voting Illven since she has posts about 1) Squirtle and 2) Merel and that's it. The second post about Merel has substance and was made while I was writing this, but still want more. Same for Athedia - the game is fun but gonna be looking for more going forward.

Also, it seems like we have 2 or 3 people without posts still? it's a longer Day so it's not too much of a problem, but I was surprised to see 4 votes not out.

Votes
Kraken (4): Snowblaze, Illven, bladescape, Murska
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (3): BatCatHat, Athedia, Lentrax
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (2): Cazero, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Illven (1): Cape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

Illven vote is mildly pinging me - I get that it's "I want to poke this person to make them do stuff" -> "oh wait they did stuff while I was writing this post, but... maybe I'm just overthinking things here... it's the fact they didn't change it. I think the natural response from town is "okay this person is doing stuff anyway, maybe I should poke someone else" whereas a wolf is more likely to take the path of least resistance.

Do I actually believe that? I don't know.

Well, now it's 2 votes.

Vote Cazador Cazero



Votes
Kraken (4): Snowblaze, Illven, bladescape, Murska
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (3): BatCatHat, Athedia, Lentrax
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (2): Cazero, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (2): Kracken, Cape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

...sure, decently like the initiative of actually making a pressure wagon happening instead of just talking about pressure wagoning. Unless, of course, there's a wolf in Kraken/AV...

I'm going back to Vote: Illven


Let'sGetKraken (2): Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
Athedia (1): AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna (4): Batcathat, Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): Let'sGetKraken
Persolus (1): Cazero
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, , Murska, Illven
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

...and this switch is contrary to that motivation. Not entirely sure I understand the town motivation for it either though.

Eh. A few points I dislike, one point in their favour, something I want to poke into: can you explain the switch back to Illven please?

Sleep deprivation is hitting hard but I will try and stay awake long enough to vote at least.

- - - Updated - - -

Also Kraken is technically a wagon as well I guess, though my vote at least is 0% serious rn so unless bladescape has a case to present... shrug

Too tired for full ISO. Has been doing vaguely solvy stuff which is good I guess but I don't think wolf!Kraken would struggle to fake any of it. The flat thing is Weird(TM) but probably not wolfy weird. I guess I'm mildly against killing him today then.

CaoimhinTheCape seems to be the closest thing to a wolfread I have of the current wagons, then, and more wagons in contention = more information for later analysis, so...

- - - Updated - - -

Also I like Murska's last post but.

...eh, no, invoking this read this early is a bad idea I think. Poke me about this D3 or so if Murska and I are both still alive. In the meantime let's go with "Murska gets a D1 pass for being decently active and pressuring people and not having done anything suspicious, but that's largely irrelevant since no-one wants him dead rn".

[Cazero]

Why should we not kill you today?

You know, I've been playing for a while and I think I'm due for a D1 lynch. I really should vote myself.
Or at least I'd do it if I was a vanillager. Since I'm not I kinda have to put up more of a fight.

Who should we kill specifically, let's say out of Kraken, Cao and AV as people with votes, plural. And why.

Hmmm, I'd say CaoimhinTheCape. I need to steal his cape. For my role.

[Murska]

Well, that settles it for me. CaoimhinTheCape.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Illven vote is mildly pinging me - I get that it's "I want to poke this person to make them do stuff" -> "oh wait they did stuff while I was writing this post, but... maybe I'm just overthinking things here... it's the fact they didn't change it. I think the natural response from town is "okay this person is doing stuff anyway, maybe I should poke someone else" whereas a wolf is more likely to take the path of least resistance.

I don't get the confusion on my vote on Illven - I vote Illven for lack of helpful posts, acknowledging that she made 1 post with relevant opinions in the meantime. That's still too little for me, so I still think it's a good vote.

I move over to Cazero to help get something going, hence the vote there.

Eh. A few points I dislike, one point in their favour, something I want to poke into: can you explain the switch back to Illven please?

As for moving back to Illven...

Cazero's only post of note is this response to pressure:



shrug

I could argue that this is towny because it isn't trying to force reads and is fairly casual about the pressure, or that it's wolfy for just commenting on mechanics rather than trying to engage with his wagon or doing solvy stuff.

I think I probably believe the former slightly more but that holds basically zero weight so he's null rn.

The pressure wasn't working. My vote wasn't doing any good there. So why leave it? Instead, I go back to Illven because her posts since I voted Cazero were these:

Spoiler: posts

Show

Wasn't Persolus d1'd last game? I imagine that would be the reason.

Cazero

@Athedia deal me in for round 3

Alright, I am REALLY off my game today.

First off. Attach another water energy to Wartortle.

Second. I somehow didn't realize this was a bastard game, and thus Flat being murdered in cold blood makes ALOT more sense.

Three. Is Caedorus playing, or just a spectator? They joined the discord, but I don't see them on the player list? So I assume spectator. I just thought they were a late joiner.


Let's see.

I have no reads on Cuthalion, and Persolus. Especially since RL is affecting Persolus.

Promised I wouldn't wolf read Ti for low activity so....

Yeah, that's it for now.

.....

......

.......

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Not a lot of content.

You know, I've been playing for a while and I think I'm due for a D1 lynch. I really should vote myself.
Or at least I'd do it if I was a vanillager. Since I'm not I kinda have to put up more of a fight.

Hmmm, I'd say CaoimhinTheCape. I need to steal his cape. For my role.

Why would we believe that you killing me is good for town? I'd just give up if it would help, but given what I know about me, I kinda have to put up more of a fight.


Will be busy for the next 3 hours, should be back before phase change.

Vote Count
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (3): Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (2): Let'sGetKraken, Illven
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (5): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero, Murska
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

[Murska]

Hey. Look. I won't be back before EoD, there's a wagon on you. If you've got reasoning, give it now. I'm on you mostly because all the counterwagons claim town PR.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Hey. Look. I won't be back before EoD, there's a wagon on you. If you've got reasoning, give it now. I'm on you mostly because all the counterwagons claim town PR.

Why would we believe that you killing me is good for town? I'd just give up if it would help, but given what I know about me, I kinda have to put up more of a fight.

I was being subtle by saying the same thing Cazero did, but I'm a town PR.

[Murska]

Ugh...

well, Cazero sounds the most sus out of all of the claims imo, and also good night everyone.

[bladescape]

You get a PR, you get a PR, Everybody gets a pr.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

D&D wrapped up early so I'm sort of around. If we're avoiding PRs I don't know that going right back to Cazero is the best move? IDK, do we really wanna risk if he is a real PR?

- - - Updated - - -

Like, I'll vote Cazero over letting myself die if it comes to it, but are there any better options?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I guess Vote: Cazero then.

Since I'm going to flip and you'll see it in 20 minutes, but I'm a Role Seer - I target someone and learn their powers (if any) but not affiliation.




Vote Count
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (3): Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, Illven, Murska, CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

[corncobweb]

The musician likes to finish their set with something upbeat

They collect their pay and then place the handful of caps owed, on Athedia's table. "Didn't get to play much on my break, haha. I'll win tomorrow...

As for what I've observed today, I tried a few times to come up woth something.

If it helps y'all I actually think AV might be more in their townrange than wolf.
- - - Updated - - -
I also just want to keep AV around for Raisons

I'm a sheep and I like the taste of raisins. Yum!
LetsGetKraken

shakes head
Wait, no, I got distracted being by the attractive nonchalance of that old timer!
Bladescape


BTW I'm not crossing out any of my votes today, not even the first one for flat_footed. We'll see what counts by the Bastard Game Rules.

[flat_footed]

Day 1 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[JeenLeen]

Cazero. More to come if I have time before Day ends.

[MerelBlackbird]

Evening all.

First order of business: to Athedia, I have 20, right, since I have two face cards? If so, then I'll... stand if that means I'm happy with the cards I have.

Next, I need to vote. Hmm. Oh, wait - too late. I'll vote early for the next several days to make up for it, I suppose.

Well. Guess it's time for night paranoia then, so I'll count votes to myself and see if I can figure out who was lynched before Flat says. Shame on me for not keeping track!!!

[flat_footed]

Nestled in the Casino as you all are, it's difficult to tell what time of day it is, or even if it is still day. The environment was designed to confound and deceive, keeping patrons in chairs far longer than they would have stayed normally. Still, it's far better than having to brave the Wasteland. Some of you feel the added weight of caps in your pocket, a small ray of hope that your fortunes have turned for the better. Others can feel beads of sweat gathering on your brow, as you eye your dwindling stashes. Memories of the man being drug away earlier prove hard to banish from your mind.

The familiar whirr of an approaching robot starts to get louder and a hush comes over the Casino floor. No one dares to speak, trying to avoid making eye contact with the metallic threat. Instead of the cartoon face, however, a series of numbers glitch in and out of view on a blank screen.

1-82
1-1711
1-517
2-104
4-159
4-1812

Abruptly, the smiling face returns to the robot as it straightens up and turns its screen to the closet wall. With a horrendous THUD, it crashes through the wall to reveal a dark chamber filled with flashing lights. There is a deafening screech of metal rending metal, followed by a deathly silence. Slowly, with even it's mechanical limbs straining under the weight, a large pod containing what appears to be a ghoul is drug across the carpet. People and furniture are shoved out of its way as the smiling face turns to its captive and speaks cheerfully.

"Have you ever heard the story of Vault 11? It was quite the social experiment from Vault-Tec! The inhabitants were told to sacrifice one of their fellow Vault dwellers each year or else the Vault computer would kill everyone. In actuality, if the residents refused, a message from Vault-Tec would be played, commending the dwellers that their '-commitment to human life is a shining example to us all' and revealing that no one would be killed. Unfortunately, by the time the Vault 11 inhabitants chose to stop sending sacrifices only five of them remained. And out of those five, only one escaped the vault. What fun!" The voice and figures soon disappear into a door at the rear of the Casino, leaving only a long furrow carved through the carpet leading back to the gaping hole in the wall.

Murska has been busted. He was Robert House.

Night 1 has begun and will end in ~23.5 hours.

[Cazero]

What.
Did anyone even vote Murska?

[bladescape]

I...

Look I'm not going to complain. But what the hell just happened.

[Batcathat]

I...

Look I'm not going to complain. But what the hell just happened.

Yeah, very much this.

So it seems we have a lucky number, the narrator dying a couple of hours into D1, someone (and a wolf to boot, so presumably not their doing) getting lynched without a single vote and more mysterious numbers (including some hidden ones, in case someone missed them). This game is... certainly something.

[AvatarVecna]

I...

Look I'm not going to complain. But what the hell just happened.

Either vote manipulation, or a daybane combined with a daylight? Either way, someone decided that murska getting to play more than one phase was too dangerous, which feels pretty mean.

[Persolus]

If the fluff text is to be believed, somehow the win conditions of "Vault 11" were not met. Could someone do a vote count? My guess is, "someone needs to die every day phase" and we ended up with a tie vote.

[Batcathat]

If the fluff text is to be believed, somehow the win conditions of "Vault 11" were not met. Could someone do a vote count? My guess is, "someone needs to die every day phase" and we ended up with a tie vote.

Possible (it was a 4-4 tie between Cao and Caz, assuming Jeen's last vote didn't count), but the rules says a tie is resolved by who reaches the number first. Of course, it's a bastard game so who knows how much the rules can be trusted?