WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[corncobweb]

Robert House is a Fallout character who entered a Vault with a society based around gambling. He was so good at it that he took over the vault, and then kicked everyone out and filled it with cement. He built a Vegas-like city on top of it.

I thought we were in that Vegas-like city, and House was a Saw-like background character, not a player.

Mr. House is not connected to Vault 11, as far as I know. Perhaps Town had a hidden win condition of no deaths on the first day, but I don't think that this forum community is even capable of not killing on the first day. I believe it is one of: the Vault 11 Win Condition is a a neutral's win condition (and they have other win conditions instead), or that the concept of "wolf" in this game is muddy or perhaps nonexistent.

[Athedia]

Possible (it was a 4-4 tie between Cao and Caz, assuming Jeen's last vote didn't count), but the rules says a tie is resolved by who reaches the number first. Of course, it's a bastard game so who knows how much the rules can be trusted?

"Murska was the 18th person to enter this fine establishment. Cao the 12th. 6 people later. It seems it was a lucky number."

[Batcathat]

"Murska was the 18th person to enter this fine establishment. Cao the 12th. 6 people later. It seems it was a lucky number."

Huh. That's a very good point. It should be easy enough to test D2 and unless someone comes up with a better explanation, I kinda think we should. Killing the wrong person if the theory is wrong shouldn't be too bad at this stage, especially with a wolf already busted.

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I was wondering why the roll for the lucky number was -1, which makes sense if this is what it is, as we'd have a slight chance of actually killing the intended target.

[bladescape]

That is... definitely a bastard mechanic. So basically tomorrow votes should be {Lucky number} from your intended target.

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This is where that's not actually what happened and we accidentally vote out the wrong person lol

[AvatarVecna]

Hehe

Hehe hehe

Ohohoho

I like this mechanic.

[Athedia]

The musician likes to finish their set with something upbeat

They collect their pay and then place the handful of caps owed, on Athedia's table. "Didn't get to play much on my break, haha. I'll win tomorrow...

"I can deal you into the next hand"

Evening all.

First order of business: to Athedia, I have 20, right, since I have two face cards? If so, then I'll... stand if that means I'm happy with the cards I have.

Next, I need to vote. Hmm. Oh, wait - too late. I'll vote early for the next several days to make up for it, I suppose.

Well. Guess it's time for night paranoia then, so I'll count votes to myself and see if I can figure out who was lynched before Flat says. Shame on me for not keeping track!!!

"May I suggest young lady, that next time you just gamble on a name early. A wrong guess early on at least shows the others at the table you are there to play the same game." The tone in Athedia's voice spoke of a barely concealed warning tinged with the harsh steel of suspicion.

[QUOTE=flat_footed;25969198]

"Have you ever heard the story of Vault 11? It was quite the social experiment from Vault-Tec! The inhabitants were told to sacrifice one of their fellow Vault dwellers each year or else the Vault computer would kill everyone. In actuality, if the residents refused, a message from Vault-Tec would be played, commending the dwellers that their '-commitment to human life is a shining example to us all' and revealing that no one would be killed. Unfortunately, by the time the Vault 11 inhabitants chose to stop sending sacrifices only five of them remained. And out of those five, only one escaped the vault. What fun!" The voice and figures soon disappear into a door at the rear of the Casino, leaving only a long furrow carved through the carpet leading back to the gaping hole in the wall.

"Could it be also that we are being told to not vote for our fellow players? Or that this will continue until we reach 5? It does raise concerning questions."

1-82
1-1711
1-517
2-104
4-159
4-1812

The dealer peered closer at her memory of the robot. Her face suddenly paling as she processed that she had seen more than she originally thought.

"The numbers, There was more but 17 isn't inclusive of 1-5. So not results. A count?
2 down
17 remaining
4? 9? 12? What do these mean?

Do the 4-15 and 4-18 reference the survivors of the vault who did not survive?"

[JeenLeen]

So, we got Murksa's role flip, but not his fluff or power, right? Or did I miss that?

Possible (it was a 4-4 tie between Cao and Caz, assuming Jeen's last vote didn't count), but the rules says a tie is resolved by who reaches the number first. Of course, it's a bastard game so who knows how much the rules can be trusted?

flat told me my vote didn't count. Too late.
And, actually, I had no vote active. I crossed out my AV vote (in time) before voting Cazero (too late), which meant no vote.

[Batcathat]

flat told me my vote didn't count. Too late.
And, actually, I had no vote active. I crossed out my AV vote (in time) before voting Cazero (too late), which meant no vote.

Funnily enough, if you had voted in time and Athedia's theory is accurate, you would probably have doomed yourself.

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I'm not sure whether discussing this is a good idea, in case it helps the wolves, but... I wonder what the chances are of any potential night powers being affected the same way?

[JeenLeen]

I checked the Lucky Number thread BCH found and see no new roles there. Doesn't mean no RNG was used -- flat might've done it elsewhere this time -- but at least it wasn't here.
https://forums.giantitp.com/showthre...ing-Conditions

Hehe

Hehe hehe

Ohohoho

I like this mechanic.

Do you think you understand the mechanic, and it's this understanding that you like?
Or just the general craziness/bastardry of it -- regardless of deeper rationale?

I'll try to understand Athedia's theory come Day if I'm alive. ::notices the upcoming Day is probably the weekend:: Maybe... the next Day I'll try to understand.

Funnily enough, if you had voted in time and Athedia's theory is accurate, you would probably have doomed yourself.

Examples help me comprehend. Could you spell that out for me?

I'm not sure whether discussing this is a good idea, in case it helps the wolves, but... I wonder what the chances are of any potential night powers being affected the same way?

I'm not certain, but I think trying to figure out the bastard mechanic is probably more helpful to town than wolves, at least since they can discuss stuff privately. (If a wolf hadn't died D1, I'd probably be scared the wolves already know... but that seems doubtful now.)

But I don't think we have any data to help us figure out how our Night Actions would be impacted. Assuming nobody used a Day power -- or the day-vig kill on flat (if that's what it was) is outside the normal bastard mechanic since it didn't target a player -- we don't know if Action targets get altered like the lynch did and won't know until later.

Also, it was toDAY's lucky number. Not sure how precise "today" is, but might mean it's just Day, not Night.

Congratulations, today's Lucky Number is 6!

[AvatarVecna]

Do you think you understand the mechanic, and it's this understanding that you like?

I think that if the theory is correct, it's going to have an interesting effect on powers I'm aware of.

[Batcathat]

Examples help me comprehend. Could you spell that out for me?

The theory is that Cao (#12 on the player list) would've been killed, but the lucky number 6 made Murska (#18) die instead. So if true, another vote on Caz (#9) would've meant you (#15) died.

Also, it was toDAY's lucky number. Not sure how precise "today" is, but might mean it's just Day, not Night.

Yeah, that's something, at least. I suppose there's not really any way of knowing for sure at this point.

[Athedia]

I checked the Lucky Number thread BCH found and see no new roles there. Doesn't mean no RNG was used -- flat might've done it elsewhere this time -- but at least it wasn't here.
https://forums.giantitp.com/showthre...ing-Conditions



Do you think you understand the mechanic, and it's this understanding that you like?
Or just the general craziness/bastardry of it -- regardless of deeper rationale?

I'll try to understand Athedia's theory come Day if I'm alive. ::notices the upcoming Day is probably the weekend:: Maybe... the next Day I'll try to understand.



Examples help me comprehend. Could you spell that out for me?

"I was the first to enter this morning, Athedia. CaoimhinTheCape the twelfth. Cuthalion, one. Corncobweb, two. JeenLeen, three. Lady Serpentine, four. BatCatHat, five. Murska, six."

She counted out the numbers to five on her fingers then squeezed them all shut as she reached six in a short motion as if squashing something.

"Cazero was ninth to enter. So if your vote had gone through..."

She repeated the counting with her fingers.

"Book Wombat, one. Let'sGetKraken, two. CaoimhinTheCape, three. Cuthalion, four. Corncobweb, five."

With all 5 fingers up she gestured flat palmed to Jeenleen.

"And then you were six. It truely was your lucky day."
]

[CaoimhinTheCape]

1-82
1-1711
1-517
2-104
4-159
4-1812

Players
1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. MerelBlackbird
4. AvatarVecna
5. Illven
6. Lentrax
7. Persolus
8. Snowblaze
9. Cazero
10. Book Wombat
11. Let'sGetKraken
12. CaoimhinTheCape
13. Cuthalion
14. corncobweb
15. JeenLeen
16. Lady Serpentine
17. BatCatHat
18. Murska

8. Snow
17. BatCatHat
5. Illven
10. Book
15. Jeen Leen
18. Murska

Six above those players is
2. blade
11. Kracken
17. Bat
4. AV
9. Cazero
12. Cape

"That looks a lot more like the opinions that people gave out. I'm thinking the lucky number is an offset. Not sure how that will factor in with less people on the list now. And flat, the one who got busted early on wasn't even on the list." She slams a hand down on the table. "The extra numbers! They line up."

1-8 - 2
1-17 - 11
1-5 - 17
2-10 - 4
4-15 - 9
4-18 - 12

"It's lookin' like my math works out."

"Could it be also that we are being told to not vote for our fellow players? Or that this will continue until we reach 5? It does raise concerning questions."

I was wondering that as well. Though, there was an announcement that that win condition was failed... does that just mean for the Day? or for... whatever the bigger game is? Are all of us walking out of here still an option?

Since I'm going to flip and you'll see it in 20 minutes, but I'm a Role Seer - I target someone and learn their powers (if any) but not affiliation.

"Well, now that my cards are on the table... who do y'all wanna learn more about?"

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Lol, I need to refresh before posting to see if I was ninja'd. But I like having the math out there anyway.

[Athedia]

8. Snow
17. BatCatHat
5. Illven
10. Book
15. Jeen Leen
18. Murska

Six above those players is
2. blade
11. Kracken
17. Bat
4. AV
9. Cazero
12. Cape

"That looks a lot more like the opinions that people gave out. I'm thinking the lucky number is an offset. Not sure how that will factor in with less people on the list now. And flat, the one who got busted early on wasn't even on the list." She slams a hand down on the table. "The extra numbers! They line up."

"It's lookin' like my math works out."

I was wondering that as well. Though, there was an announcement that that win condition was failed... does that just mean for the Day? or for... whatever the bigger game is? Are all of us walking out of here still an option?

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Lol, I need to refresh before posting to see if I was ninja'd. But I like having the math out there anyway.

"Or would those who walked out lose and those who stayed win. Unless it was unanimous."

Athedia pinched her nose thinking about the second revelation.

"But what importance are those six. And which six? One of the first set is dead. All of them did vote for someone but it wasn't the same person. Was it simply to show us how this all worked? And what of the 1-8, 1-17, 1-5, 2-10, 4-15 and 4-18?"

[CaoimhinTheCape]

"Or would those who walked out lose and those who stayed win. Unless it was unanimous."

Athedia pinched her nose thinking about the second revelation.

"But what importance are those six. And which six? One of the first set is dead. All of them did vote for someone but it wasn't the same person. Was it simply to show us how this all worked? And what of the 1-8, 1-17, 1-5, 2-10, 4-15 and 4-18?"

"I believe it was to show it's process. As much as the house wants to win, if there's no trust in the process then they'll have a lot of upset and desperate gamblers."

Vote Count
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (3): Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, Illven, Murska, CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

"For 4-15-9 and 4-18-12. There were 4 votes on Cazero and myself. The 9th and 12th players. That got shifted by 6, to the 15th and 18th players."

"2 votes on the 4th player, AV, that got shifted to 10th player, Book. But..." she looks at the tally suspiciously. Did Jeen withdraw support? Or did one of those not count?"

1 on Blade, Kraken, and Bat got shifted as well. It looks like corn's most recent choice was the one that mattered there."

[AvatarVecna]

Batcathat

AvatarVecna

AvatarVecna

flat_footed

LetsGetKraken

Cazero

Cazero

Illven

CaoimhinTheCape

CaoimhinTheCape

CaoimhinTheCape

CaoimhinTheCape

Cazero

Cazero

LetsGetKraken

Bladescape

This is every uncrossed vote. There are two people who have multiple uncrossed votes, which makes counting trickier.

Here are the wagons, assuming the first uncrossed vote is counted:

Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (2): Athedia, Lentrax
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Cazero (3): Let'sGetKraken, Illven, Murska
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero

1/1/1/1/2/3/4. 13 votes across 7 wagons. Flat's numbers indicate 1/1/1/2/4/4, 13 votes across 6 wagons. This is not the situation.

Here are the wagons, assuming the last uncrossed vote is counted:

Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (2): Athedia, Lentrax
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, Illven, Murska, CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Batcathat, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Cazero
bladescape (1): corncobweb

1/1/1/2/4/4, 13 votes across 6 wagons. Flat's numbers indicate 1/1/1/2/4/4, 13 votes across 6 wagons. This might be the situation.

1 vote on Batcathat (player 17). 1-17
2 votes on AvatarVecna (player 4). 2-4
1 vote on Let'sGetKraken (player 11). 1-11
4 votes on Cazero (player 9). 4-9
4 votes on CaoimhinTheCape (player 12). 4-12.
1 vote on bladescape (player 2). 1-2

Shifting all votes 6 players down arrives at:

1-2 --> 1-8
1-11 --> 1-17
1-17 --> 1-5
2-4 --> 2-10
4-9 --> 4-15
4-12 --> 4-18

This matches up with flat's numbers precisely, including the white text. It's also worth noting that Cao might've been the winner either from randomly rolling between the two lead wagons, or because his wagon was the first to reach 4 votes.

In any case, this feels like a very solid theory that matches up pretty precisely with the evidence available.

[Cazero]

Thinking about the Vault 11 wincon. I find it weird.
If it remains on the table, it's a bit strange from flat to just explain it in details in thread.
And if someone was aware of it, there should have been some kind of push for it.

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And I also think Cao cracked the code.
You can keep your cape. For now. I'll only loot it after you die naturally.

[AvatarVecna]

Also I initially thought someone was being very mean to Murska, that he died due to deliberate dayvig/vote manipulation powers. Dying to pure random chance that nobody could've predicted is a whole different kind of mean though.

[Athedia]

Also I initially thought someone was being very mean to Murska, that he died due to deliberate dayvig/vote manipulation powers. Dying to pure random chance that nobody could've predicted is a whole different kind of mean though.

"One might call it a bastard move. And no, not pure chance. Just not enough context to connect the information we were given. I do agree that I believe we understand the mechanic of the numbers now. As for the Vault 11 talk, well. We still have to try to make that choice. Even knowing all the information does not make us able to agree on anything. If we fail the condition tomorrow I believe we should consider it."

[AvatarVecna]

One thing I'll caution people against, actually: don't assume it will work exactly the same tomorrow. It might be that the new lucky number shifts it down...but it might be that on even days, the lucky number shifts the vote-target up. Or something stranger that's not occurred to me in the last few minutes. We've got a reliable theory for what happened, but in the same way we had no reason to suspect the votes would be shifted like that yesterday, we have no reason to suspect we know for 100% certain how they'll shift tomorrow.

[Let'sGetKraken]

One thing I'll caution people against, actually: don't assume it will work exactly the same tomorrow. It might be that the new lucky number shifts it down...but it might be that on even days, the lucky number shifts the vote-target up. Or something stranger that's not occurred to me in the last few minutes. We've got a reliable theory for what happened, but in the same way we had no reason to suspect the votes would be shifted like that yesterday, we have no reason to suspect we know for 100% certain how they'll shift tomorrow.

I think AV gets town points for this. There is no reason to bring this up if you're a wolf, I think, if no one is openly considering it.

[Cuthalion]

the person who was saying "let's kill in the pool of claimed town prs d1" flipped wolf, what a shocker

also i don't think i'd processed that this was as funky of a game mechanically as it seems to be

should be interesting though

[corncobweb]

The last uncrossed vote is the correct count,

The game will start on a Day Phase which will last 48 hours. During any Day Phase, all players can vote for who they wish to "lynch" (remove from the game) that phase. Your vote is not set in stone once made, and you can recast your vote at any time provided that the phase has not ended. To cast your vote, please bold and color in red the name of the person you wish to vote. It doesn't have to be their forum name proper, or some official "I vote [name]", as long as it's recognizable who you're voting and the formatting has been done. If you are changing your vote, go back and cross out your old one like so. If more than one legal vote exists, the most recent of them will be considered.

I expected my vote on bladescape would be the only one counted, but I was testing if my other votes would do anything. They didn't do anything.
(I did not perform this test based on a power I have. Just speculation)

Question: Why is everyone saying that Murska was wolf-sided? As far as I can see, we didn't get any flip information besides the name of their role.

[Athedia]

The last uncrossed vote is the correct count,



I expected my vote on bladescape would be the only one counted, but I was testing if my other votes would do anything. They didn't do anything.
(I did not perform this test based on a power I have. Just speculation)

Question: Why is everyone saying that Murska was wolf-sided? As far as I can see, we didn't get any flip information besides the name of their role.

"A red name is indicative of wolf-sideness, green town and black typically neutral." This information seemed to puzzle even the dealer who spoke it, as she did not notice any names around the casino red, green or otherwise.

[AvatarVecna]

"A red name is indicative of wolf-sideness, green town and black typically neutral." This information seemed to puzzle even the dealer who spoke it, as she did not notice any names around the casino red, green or otherwise.

ccw's point is decent though. Yeah that's standard around here but there's nothing requiring it to be the case, and neither Murska's alignment nor powers were announced. I think it's still a safe assumption that he was scumteam, but we already know this is a bastard game.

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Good news, everyone! Flat has agreed that I should probably have a wincon, and will be making it shortly. No word so far on if he'll tell me what it is, but I consider this progress!

[flat_footed]

Good news, everyone! Flat has agreed that I should probably have a wincon, and will be making it shortly. No word so far on if he'll tell me what it is, but I consider this progress!

Spoiler: Super secret, AV only

Show

[corncobweb]

AvatarVecna, do you have an information about the Vault 11 Win Condition?

Also, I produce unique reads, for the first time!

town: Athedia, CaoimhinTheCape (based on public reasoning about the bastard mechanics)
neutral: AvatarVecna (though I'm not yet able to tell which parts of their jokes are coming from truth)
wolf: bladescape (based on vibes only)

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Also
town: Cazero (because Murska was wolf, and voted for Cazero)

I realize this is not the whole story, it could have been wolf bussing wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

If I'm claiming neutral it's only so that I can say bladescape was wrong to townlean me

[Athedia]

"Illven, Lentrax. Hit or stand?"

[flat_footed]

Night 1 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.