WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[flat_footed]

Whether a sign of the times, or just this Casino in particular, the destruction from earlier did little to interrupt the gambling around you. The bright lights are no longer enough to keep your eyes open and people soon fall asleep at the very machines or tables you're gambling at. With the mind and soul behind Lucky 38 out of the picture, security seems to be lacking.

A jarring *bzzt* startles you all awake some hours later. Blinking the blurred weariness from your eyes, you can see where the offending alarm is coming from. One unfortunate gambler fell asleep with an arm draped across the 'Bet Max' button on a slot machine. The device must have steadily spun away all night, slowly draining what caps had been deposited the day before. With growing dread spreading across her face, the woman realizes the machine had not been content to stop once her money ran out. A large negative sign glows red menacingly in front of a number of caps far larger than what she arrived with. The alarm was for when she owed them enough money, not for when she lost her own.

Several people in suits surround the unfortunate woman. One deftly resets the machine, while the others grab both her and her belongings. A knowing smile flashes across the face of one particularly unsavory man as he sees the imprint of a button on her arm. "Look -ere! Seems like she enjoyed the Wasteland's most expensive pillow." Scattered laughter ripples through the group as they force the woman to start walking along a path following the deep rut in the floor.

Snowblaze has been busted. She was the Drifter.

Signs of life return to the Casino around you as employees shuffle in and out, not least of which is one of the wheeled robots with the ridiculous face. He beams at the group as he begins to tidy up the mess from the previous 24 hours. A familiar message bursts from its speakers, as if it couldn't wait to bring you the good news.

Congratulations, today's Lucky Number is 7!

Day 2 has begun and will end in ~47 hours.

Living Players

1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. MerelBlackbird
4. AvatarVecna
5. Illven
6. Lentrax
7. Persolus
8. Cazero
9. Book Wombat
10. Let'sGetKraken
11. CaoimhinTheCape
12. Cuthalion
13. corncobweb
14. JeenLeen
15. Lady Serpentine
16. BatCatHat

[Batcathat]

Assuming we agree that we should test the current theory (which should also indirectly test AV's suggestion that it alternates or something depending on the day, even if the result wouldn't be what we were aiming for), I suggest that in addition to the actual vote we also mark who we're actually hoping to target in bold or some non-red colour. That should at least make things a little less confusing, I think/hope.

As for who to vote for, I'm less sure. I'm still a little suspicious of both Cao and Kraken, though I think Murska's vote on Cao (even if he did move off him pretty quickly) might make Cao a little less likely than before (not sure what to think of the claim, especially since a power like that would make sense for both a townie and a wolf).

I suppose I'll go with MerelBlackbird (intended as a vote on Let'sGetKraken) for now.

[corncobweb]

I think we should use the Living Players list posted today, not the original list.

I don't have a good vote but I'll go for CaoimhinTheCape (11 + 7 modulo 16 = 2 bladescape)

[Illven]

I will be very busy this day phase.

Placeholder vote on bladescape [Really Bookwombat]

[JeenLeen]

I'll be busy most of this Day, but wanted to chime in early that I got nothing useful to share from Night.
To my knowledge, my power worked.
Also -- for D1 vote interpretation -- stating again that flat told me I had no active vote. I crossed out my vote on AV before Day ended, and tried to vote Cazero after Day ended.

I don't think Snow's death tells us much.
For wolflean today, I think I lean Cao. Although I was trying to save him late Day -- thinking a role scry could out a wolf in a lie -- I hadn't thought through how role-scry is traditionally a wolf role (Devil?). Not to say a townie can't have it, but maybe he's a wolf being honest about his power lest he get caught in a lie later on?
And corncob makes a good point that Murska was voting Cazero. No reason to bus a wolf buddy like that D1.

Do we trust Athedia's view of the voting rules?
I'll just do CaoimhimTheCape for now and adjust later if needed for votes to count as should.

If I'm irresponsible IRL, I might do an ISO on Murska later on.
More likely, I'll skim his and the D1 lead wagons to see if anything makes more sense.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So I tried to use my power on Cazero, but got no feedback. Flat told me that if my target was a villager, I would have received some sort of feedback, so I was messed with in some way.

Anyway, I'd guess if it's a day-vig it's town, if it's a role guesser it's wolf.

Aside from the fact this comes from a Wolf, if there was a role guessed I would (will? if it's Day only) be dead toDay from it. I doubt there's someone who guesses roles and eliminates them.

I don't get any strong pings off anyone, mostly because most of the thread is a blackjack game. So I think I'm going to start off voting on Let'sGetKraken just in case the AV wagon is someone trying to protect a wolf buddy. I think whatever reactions follow will be better fuel for analysis closer to EoD.

Fake edit: I've been trying to post this for a while but my internet spazzed out on me, and it looks like blade got there first. Still, plenty of time in the day yet.

Will not vote with the intent of getting Kraken out today. This is the 5th vote on Kraken, when AV was at 3 and Athedia at 2. It's early and there's plenty of other places to vote than pushing a buddy's wagon to 5.



Vote: Bladescape with the intention of Vote: BookWombat


I am slightly worried that the vote offset won't be in effect, idk if 7 is anything special cause it's lucky number 7 and the highest roll possible.


Vote Count
Merel (1): Bat
Cao (2): corn, Jeen
blade (2): Illven, Cao

Vote Count?
Kraken (1): Bat
blade (2) corn, Jeen
book (2): Illven, Cao

[Batcathat]

Will not vote with the intent of getting Kraken out today. This is the 5th vote on Kraken, when AV was at 3 and Athedia at 2. It's early and there's plenty of other places to vote than pushing a buddy's wagon to 5.

Hmm. I kind of discounted Murska's vote on Kraken since it was so early in the day, but you might have a point (especially since I'm leaning at least a little towards a townread on both AV and Athedia). If Murska was honest about trying to post for a while, he might've missed blade's Kraken vote, but it would still mean pushing Kraken into the lead, at least.

The annoying part of that is that if I choose to trust both you and Kraken for the time being, I'm kind of out of suspects. Jeen's latest post made me a little vary on account of seemingly hesitating to test the voting theory, since even if it's wrong not at least testing it (or finding a better one) seems bad for town, since not being able to vote accurately is almost certainly going to screw us sooner or later.

I suppose I should reread some of Jeen's posts at some point, but at least there's nothing in his vote history that looks particularly towny, so I might as well go with Persolus (JeenLeen).

- - - Updated - - -

"At some point" turned into "right now". It's a pretty shallow ISO, but at least it's all of Jeen's posts in one place if I or someone else wants to get back to it.

As for the ISO itself, I didn't find anything particularly interesting (and I know I'm interpreting some stuff in the worst possible way for Jeen) but at least there's nothing making me regret my vote.

Spoiler: Quick ISO on JeenLeen

Show

Alerting everybody in case someone didn't notice this. Be cautious.

On the #6: if it means anything... I don't think it's tied to the 60 hour day. I reckon 60 hours is the normal 48 + a little bit extra, to make the Day/Night end cycles align with flat_footed's real life preference.
On the other hand, I guess it probably does mean something and perhaps tied to the bastard mechanic or, since it says "game was rigged" maybe we can use it as a clue to find the wolves.


I usually like to have something to really vote on when doing my opening post, but nothing glares at me besides the early Day wagons. So quoting some votes.


Quoting Cao for the votecount.



Then Illven puts a 3rd vote on Kraken.
If Kraken or Illven are wolves, could it mean something? Early Day wagons usually dissipate, so maybe trying to bus a scumbuddy early on but planning to move vote later? An early wagon to yield analysis can be useful, but I'll keep my eye on this.

Cao had put a second vote on Kraken. Eh... I kinda feel similar to how I do about Illven's 3rd vote, but a 2-vote wagon just helps analysis get going.



Mostly quoting this since it's a vote before I posted. (Not quoting, but noting Lentrax also voted AV.)
But, honestly, slight townlean here. I think a wolf would double-check more who posted while they were posting.




And I think a townlean to BCH for finding & posting the dice roll flat made.

---

I'm not liking the Kraken wagon, even though it's early Day so it probably doesn't mean anything.



::squints::
Got a theory. I'll put a 3rd chip on this pile. AvatarVecna.

I could see pointing out the bastard warning as a wolf trying to look helpful. Of course, it could also be a townie genuinely trying to be helpful.

Seems to be seeding suspicions towards several people. Of course, things like that is basically what D1 solving is.

@Jeen: Could you share that theory you spoke of?

This... probably isn't a power usage, but I'd like to rule it out. Yeah, deal me in. Maybe I'll get lucky and draw Exodia on turn 1.

A 16.
Too tired to do the actual statistics. But a 5 or lower, or a face-card, is helpful. That's probably over 50% odds of a better hand. Besides, if I bust, that gives intel.
So I'll take another card. Hit me!



Query: is the Narrator's death not at the beginning due to something, or simply flavor text forgotten until after game start...





Could be a dayvig not wanting to kill anybody today, but wanting to test their power and potentially eliminate some bastardy elements by removing an active Narrator.
If that were the case, I think they'd use it later in the Day, though.

I lean towards this is just fluff flat always planned on posting.

We should see what flavor text is used for deaths/lynches. If "has been busted" has a certain meaning, is the one used for all things, or isn't used again--that might help solve the mystery (or at least give a good guess.)

---

Oh--and on fluff for new players/folk not in Rogan's Hivemind: AV said something like "why do folk keep giving me guns". Context: she was the vig last game. (Or, well, essentially. Town powers worked weird that game, but essentially the town vig.)

The part about Hivemind also feels like it could be a wolf trying to look helpful. I think I might just distrust helpfulness in this game.

Oh, sure, Illven gets a 29 but you say it's an 11. I get a <insert addition here> and it's over 21. Suspicious

Serious note: at least so far I've gotten no feedback or noticeable effect from going bust. Though if it's "instantaneous" could be flat hasn't done it yet, or might resolve at Day's end. I'll keep y'all posted.
My guess (if it's not just fluff Athedia is doing for fun): vote manip power.

Card game note: my daughter got a pack of Yugioh cards. She knows I played back in the day, so she asked me if they were any good. I told her honestly that I had no clue as I have almost no idea how the current rules work.

I feel like theorizing about Athedia's blackjack game could be wolfy filler, but that might just be because I assumed her game was just for fun and whether or not I was right about that, disagreeing with me about that isn't necessarily wolfy.

I still don't like the feel of the Kraken wagon. I can see it being a valid one, but something about the steam of it, with so little opposition besides the AV wagon... feels off.
Thoughts/analysis below (and honestly, rereading I do get folk voting Kraken), but I'll leave my vote on AV for now.



Oddly, this post almost makes me okay with the Kraken wagon. I'll assume it's in response to the one post where I did actual analysis.
It's not that he's accusing me. It's that, if he's accusing me of pocketing him, that doesn't seem right; while I wasn't liking the wagon on Kraken, I also suspected him and Illven of being scumbuddies in the same post.

But maybe I'm misunderstanding.



Not liking this. Seems like casting shade on Merel for an enthusiastic post.
While I guess Merel did post some real life reasons she doesn't have any actual analysis to add, and that's what she did last game while truly busy/sick and being a wolf, this feels like a wolf!Illven trying to cast shade to start a wagon on someone.

But Illven didn't move her vote from Kraken to Merel.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel town, seems an odd post to make. No value; some risk.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken wolf and Merel town, seems odd didn't move her vote when she has a justified reason to.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel wolf, makes sense as distancing.
Or it's town!Illven commmenting and I'm getting bad vibes or misunderstanding; such has happened in games before.




I think a townread for this overall. I could definitely see a wolf or neutral saying this, but you'd gotta be a bold wolf to do this lie. But it's, like, such great cover for a wolf not wanting to get scried/tracked. (Or "watched"; i mix up "track" and "watch".)
So that's the WIFOM spiral.



If you are still the lead wagon, please give your theory close to Day's end.

That sounds incredibly interesting.



True, but isn't that how each Day usually goes?
Yet a good point. The AV wagon isn't doing anything.
::looks over who has at least 1 vote already::
Persolus, don't you usually bet on staying past D1 by now?

Seeing one of the players confidently playing Pokemon at the Blackjack table, Jeen walks another to another table. With utter lack of subtly, he lays down a card from his pocket facedown on the table. "I play a trap card facedown." The other patrons and the dealer look annoyed and start calling for security.

Any reason y'all went after Cazero instead of Persolus?
Not that I have reason to suspect one over the other, but I find it curious the wagon grew on a new person (Cazero) rather than someone already with a vote (like Persolus).

If Jeen does turn out to be a wolf, I'd say this makes Persolus looks pretty towny. I don't see a wolf trying to bring attention to a buddy like this.

"Nah, I'm good", says the sir as he slowly backs away from security. He deftly retrieves his Torrential Tribute from the table.



He did? Dang, I'm usually more mindful of that. Well, that makes sense.
Uh, back to AvatarVecna.
Sometimes wolves are willing to be patient D1, as wagons tend to ebb and flow as folk get bored. If AV is a wolf, might've just been playing chicken with us.



Good point, insofar as no reason to shift from Cazero to Persolus at this stage.

I've been busy today so haven't 100% comprehended everything when the wagons were changing, but AV as a lead wagon again has my attention.





Cao's point is a good one.
AV, did you mean that?



Taking what you said as a joke, but I figured you were
1) wolf wanting to set up an alibi for being seen NKing
2) a serial killer with similar motive
3) actual vig and annoyed about it
4) <redacted since if true I don't wanna state it in case the wolves haven't thought of it>

If 1 or 2, you're a good lynch target.
If 3, well, you are a potentially useful townie but, at least likely in your own estimation based on your known attitudes about vigilantes, it's not a terrible D1 lynch.
If 4, bad to lynch you. Level of bad varies on <redacted>.

In Hivemind, you noted I made a post about your role where it summed up to "AV is a role". I realize this is basically the same. What I really mean is I could see you posting what you did as any alignment and many roles.

Rereading your posts, I'm not sure if it sounds like a townie kinda okay with being the D1 lynch, or a wolf/serial killer trying not to be too defensive.



That's a good insight. Does anyone who has played Fallout 3 know if "Rapidly Changing Conditions" is an allusion to something?

This post makes me a little suspicious but I don't really know why. Maybe it's that it feels a little filler-y?

Also, I wonder if "Rapidly Changing Conditions" is a subtle hint about the voting conditions changing day by day? (Either just by the lucky number or possibly by how it's influencing the vote as well).

Cazero. More to come if I have time before Day ends.

I don't think Jeen would intentionally post after the cut off, regardless of alignment, so I assume the attempt to change his vote was genuine. If he is a wolf, I could see it as Jeen thinking Cao was going to flip and wanting to look towny by seemingly trying to save him last minute (I did something similar as a wolf once).

So, we got Murksa's role flip, but not his fluff or power, right? Or did I miss that?



flat told me my vote didn't count. Too late.
And, actually, I had no vote active. I crossed out my AV vote (in time) before voting Cazero (too late), which meant no vote.

I checked the Lucky Number thread BCH found and see no new roles there. Doesn't mean no RNG was used -- flat might've done it elsewhere this time -- but at least it wasn't here.
https://forums.giantitp.com/showthre...ing-Conditions



Do you think you understand the mechanic, and it's this understanding that you like?
Or just the general craziness/bastardry of it -- regardless of deeper rationale?

I'll try to understand Athedia's theory come Day if I'm alive. ::notices the upcoming Day is probably the weekend:: Maybe... the next Day I'll try to understand.



Examples help me comprehend. Could you spell that out for me?



I'm not certain, but I think trying to figure out the bastard mechanic is probably more helpful to town than wolves, at least since they can discuss stuff privately. (If a wolf hadn't died D1, I'd probably be scared the wolves already know... but that seems doubtful now.)

But I don't think we have any data to help us figure out how our Night Actions would be impacted. Assuming nobody used a Day power -- or the day-vig kill on flat (if that's what it was) is outside the normal bastard mechanic since it didn't target a player -- we don't know if Action targets get altered like the lynch did and won't know until later.

Also, it was toDAY's lucky number. Not sure how precise "today" is, but might mean it's just Day, not Night.

I'll be busy most of this Day, but wanted to chime in early that I got nothing useful to share from Night.
To my knowledge, my power worked.
Also -- for D1 vote interpretation -- stating again that flat told me I had no active vote. I crossed out my vote on AV before Day ended, and tried to vote Cazero after Day ended.

I don't think Snow's death tells us much.
For wolflean today, I think I lean Cao. Although I was trying to save him late Day -- thinking a role scry could out a wolf in a lie -- I hadn't thought through how role-scry is traditionally a wolf role (Devil?). Not to say a townie can't have it, but maybe he's a wolf being honest about his power lest he get caught in a lie later on?
And corncob makes a good point that Murska was voting Cazero. No reason to bus a wolf buddy like that D1.

Do we trust Athedia's view of the voting rules?
I'll just do CaoimhimTheCape for now and adjust later if needed for votes to count as should.

If I'm irresponsible IRL, I might do an ISO on Murska later on.
More likely, I'll skim his and the D1 lead wagons to see if anything makes more sense.

[JeenLeen]

Had a free moment, so I'll answer BCH's question about theory on AV. I had basically posted it later on during the Day (or Night? forget which).

I voted AV thinking she was probably a serial killer or wolf, wanting to set up an alibi if she got caught by a watcher/tracker.
I had hoped AV would give more of a reaction to the votes on her; that she didn't... not sure how to interpret that. There was a reaction I'd have read as town, but she didn't do it yet her not doing it doesn't really mean she's not town, so meh. Guess NAI.

I was later okay removing my vote from AV, in part because it wasn't doing any good pressure-wise, in part because I figured some good reasons a non-vig or vig town!AV might claim (well, imply, but basically claim) vig.
I still don't fully clear AV; even if she didn't kill N1, there's other wolves who could kill, or she could be hoping to set up a long-term serial killer survival by skipping the N1 kill. But, based on some stuff she wrote late Day or during Night, I'm tentatively reading her as town.

[MerelBlackbird]

Morning!
Taking a risk and following the lucky number theory today. Kind of scares me, honestly.

CaomhinTheCape (intent: [COLOR="#FF0000"]Bladescape[/COLOR]. I'll try to explain next time I'm on. No more time atm.

(Also the Murska Constant holds true! Pretty funny, that).

(And I find myself hoping I'm not risking Cao...)

[Cazero]

I don't really know what to vote right now.
I guess I'll park a pressure vote on Cazero {Lady Serpentine} for now.

[AvatarVecna]

I voted AV thinking she was probably a serial killer or wolf, wanting to set up an alibi if she got caught by a watcher/tracker.

People can watch me every night for the rest of the game if the want. I don't mind, cuz there's nothing to see.

I'll also say that part of my lack of reaction to getting voted is cuz part of the power still functions while dead.

[corncobweb]

I'm surprised that several other people are voting bladescape, too. My suspicion of bladescape is very mild and unjustified.
(I realize this post makes me look wolfy because I'm visibly waffling, but I would hate to accidentally cause a sheepy kill of town!bladescape. bladescape is a valuable player)

[AvatarVecna]

Opinions on Cao?

[Batcathat]

Opinions on Cao?

I was obviously suspicious of him D1 and to some degree I still am, though I do think he looks townier after Murska's flip (Murska voting him and then switching could be a ruse, of course, but I don't really see a point to it). I also feel like his defense of Kraken today is probably not something a wolf would do (since he's either working against a potential town wagon or rather openly defending a wolf buddy).

So, still a bit suspicious of Cao, but I feel like there are enough points in his favor that I don't want to vote him right now.

[Illven]

I don't think a wolf would have posted the info about the voting that they did. Since it seems extremely likely that it was correct for day 1 at least.

Like if they are a wolf, why not just post it in wolf chat, so only wolves know how to manipulate the votes.

Like yes people were discussing it, but Cao "proved" it with math.

[JeenLeen]

Murska ISO Part 1 (e.g., # of posts forum lets me put in one post)
A lot of WIFOM.

Spoiler

Show

I am not a six, I am a number! Wait, how did it go again...

Hi all, been a while

NAI

Right, I'm finally back home.

Going over what's happened real quick, I think Illven hopping third on a wagon this early is a pretty good look, doesn't seem overly self-conscious. Lentrax doing the same on the AV wagon kind of likewise, but that of course takes a very different tone if it happens that Kraken is wolf.

JeenLeen is the first player to start actually playing, so they get a pass from me for day one. As for the analysis, well, thin conclusions on thin evidence, fair for so early. I don't particularly like keeping pocket theories at this point - my read of AV's post was that there's maaaybe a bit of vig cover there, but that'd be no reason to vote at them so I don't know what the reasoning here is.

Athedia's thing seems too complex to be a game-mechanical power directly, but of course it might have some kind of connection. I'd guess it's just fluff, for now.

The Narrator getting busted could be bastard cover, but my guess would be some kind of an actual power used on them. Bastardry automatically makes people suspicious of the narrator slot, so it's feasible someone might go that way especially if they don't have anything better to do day 1. If we later choose to want to speculate on who it might've been - which I don't suggest right now - I have some ideas.



I don't like this post. The answer should be obvious, and even if it isn't, why would you 1: assume Kraken knows any more than the public info 2: want them to reveal it even if they do? It doesn't read like a townie putting actual thought into what happened and why, but rather a stock reaction for the sake of having a reaction.

Anyway, I'd guess if it's a day-vig it's town, if it's a role guesser it's wolf.

Aaand that's about all that's happened I guess.

Townread for me, Illven, and sorta Lentrax.
Would a wolf rather state that to support their scumbuddies, or to try to make us suspect townies as scum?

That he "don't like this post" by Illven makes me... well, it's still a lot of WIFOM. Would he be casting shade on a scumbuddy to distance, or laying seeds to hope a wagon goes on a townie.
If the lead wagon at this time was a wolf, that could be why trying to get Illven. But if then, why not vote her?

I don't get any strong pings off anyone, mostly because most of the thread is a blackjack game. So I think I'm going to start off voting on Let'sGetKraken just in case the AV wagon is someone trying to protect a wolf buddy. I think whatever reactions follow will be better fuel for analysis closer to EoD.

Fake edit: I've been trying to post this for a while but my internet spazzed out on me, and it looks like blade got there first. Still, plenty of time in the day yet.

Is AV a wolf he's trying to save?

Actually doing that, sure. I'm all for people giving their reads, but what are we supposed to look into with Cazero? Elaborate please.

Yeah, sure, but why them specifically? I mean, one vote isn't much of a threat, so you need to convince at least a couple others to join in.

I guess. Kraken's doing some kind of solving at least, and nobody pushed AV to save him earlier, so let's put pressure then. But I'd rather we picked targets with a bit more reasoning - hypocritical of me, but I truly don't have the time to go in-depth today.

Cazero.

Sounds like he's reluctantly voting Cazero. But, given how he stayed on Cazero until EOD, I think that it's likely this is just wolf lies.

"When you have little to go on, you go on little. Not nothing."

"Yes, exactly my point. I'm glad we agree."

Banter with Athedia. NAI. Can't find any reason to think it's two scum bantering with each other.

Well, I'm kind of questioning the purpose of a pressure wagon where we don't first wait for the target to actually be around and write their thoughts.

His answer to me. Good answer, but NAI. Could be justification if Persolus is scum, but as Illven noted, Persolus also got D1 killed last game so I think NAI to Persolus and Murska.

Do you have anything to do with what happened to flat?

NAI. Makes sense for wolves to want to know.

So far no real conclusions. He gave some townleans, but WIFOM makes it hard to use that.

Next one a'comin.

- - - Updated - - -

Next round.
By "NAI" here, I mean more he's doing a good wolf cover as town or it's NAI towards anyone else. No useful intel from this.

Spoiler

Show

Different special mechanic in play every day based on the number rolled? But for there to be any point we'd have to have ways to interact with it, either through PRs or by learning the rules over time.

NAI. Good point, though; sounds true.

I wish that the people we're pressuring would get here and talk to us. But I guess it's better to target someone who isn't here than someone who is if we don't have any strong suspicions either way.

NAI. Looks towny, but really has no content since no vote shift.

As far as I'm concerned, AV has claimed Vig hard enough that going 'jk' isn't enough and I will vote there if they try to backtrack without a real good explanation.

Hmm....
Feels like setting up reason to try to lynch AV if AV claims non-vig. So i think town points to AV here, but if AV and Murska are scumbuddies, AV just has to not claim otherwise for Murska to not have to vote her. So... frustratingly useless.

Wait, really? We have a vig claim, they can prove themselves by shooting a wolf. If they're a SK, well, we can kill them if they shoot anywhere other than suspected wolves, so they're practically a vig until then. Why would we lynch there today?

I propose we don't aim for claimed town PRs day one. Really wish Cazero would be here to say something, but in their absence they're still a better target than any of the active posters imo. I can't push any wagon above AV anyway.

- - - Updated - - -



Oh, I missed this one.

Specifically, I want two things.

Why should we not kill you today?

Who should we kill specifically, let's say out of Kraken, Cao and AV as people with votes, plural. And why.

Backs off on reasons to kill AV. Wanting to persuade others to keep her around?

Well, that settles it for me. CaoimhinTheCape.

Hey. Look. I won't be back before EoD, there's a wagon on you. If you've got reasoning, give it now. I'm on you mostly because all the counterwagons claim town PR.

Ugh...

well, Cazero sounds the most sus out of all of the claims imo, and also good night everyone.

This makes Cao seem more town at first. Murska was willing to vote him.
Yet he shifts back his vote to Caz.
I could squint this and see this as scumbuddies Cao and Murska planning for this to give a cover reason for Cao to persuade Murska.

Regardless, that the vote ended on Caz clears Cazero. At least unless wolves are Murska, Cao, and Cazero. But I think if that were the case, Murska woulda voted elsewhere than those earlier in the Day.

Conclusion: Cazero town. Some reasons to think AV and Cao town, but I'm not as convinced.

Hoping to re-read Cao, AV, & Kraken before I really consider changing my vote.

[JeenLeen]

Opinions on Cao?

I think I already wrote this, but
1) he claimed a power common to wolves
2) his competing wagon (Cazero) was almost certainly town since a wolf (Murska) was sticking on it

I reread his posts, thinking to do an ISO, but nothing pinged me strongly one way or another. It's at least NAGL ("Not a Good Look") how he and Caz were at the end of D1... on the other hand, we don't often learn a ton by just lynching the 2nd person D2.

While I get BCH's point that Murska seemed happy to vote Cao or Cazero, it coulda been faked.

I hope to have time to reread Kraken tomorrow.
To someone feeling helpful: who should I vote for my vote to count on Cao? Or maybe just make a lookup table for everyone?

I don't think a wolf would have posted the info about the voting that they did. Since it seems extremely likely that it was correct for day 1 at least.

Like if they are a wolf, why not just post it in wolf chat, so only wolves know how to manipulate the votes.

Like yes people were discussing it, but Cao "proved" it with math.

This is a significant point towards Cao's favor. I want to give myself a little more time to contemplate it. Would a wolf give that for towncred? (And I think that question is basically "Was it just a matter of time before someone else solved it, given the seeds Athedia already figured out?")
I don't have an answer currently. Sometimes when I ask stuff like that, it's with a sly smile as I know my answer and want to hear others' opinions. This time, I still wanna hear y'all's thoughts, but I really haven't dedicated the time; I just know it's a relevant query.

[bladescape]

Kraken has a ~moderate chance to be wolf imo. It didn't stick yesterday but I was serious about it. Add that onto the fact that Murska basically ignored it as an option when it was still around makes me feel better.

Cao ~possible? But not as sold there.

Agreed Caz is town.

I can confirm Snow is town.

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MerelBlackbird Let'sGetKraken

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Oh actually Murska did vote Kraken at first.

Hm.

How much do I care.

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Nevermind I hate my Kraken read now lel.

Cao is the most likely of the wagons to have been wolf but I also think it was just v/v (Caz/Cao) because of how Murska treated it.

Book Wombat (BatCatHat)

Also just realised I'm being wagoned.

Hi.

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I could vote Jeen actually. That vote on me is kinda meh.

[Book Wombat]

Went through the thread, and have some slight pings on JeenLeen.
Persolus

[Batcathat]

I could vote Jeen actually. That vote on me is kinda meh.

Not that I’d mind another vote on Jeen (especially from someone currently voting me), but what vote on you are you referring to? Unless I’ve missed something (always a possibility) Jeen hasn’t voted you in the entire game.

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No, wait. I’m stupid. I forgot that he “only” voted red and got confused.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I think this vote count is up to date.

What's the case on Blade? Or is a vague shrug in that direction and you don't mind blade dying?




Vote Count
Merel (1): Bat
Cao (3): corn, Jeen, Merel
blade (2): Illven, Cao
Persolus (2): Bat, Book
Cazero (1): Cazero
Book (1): blade
No Vote: Athedia, AV, Lentrax, Persolus, Kraken, LadySerpentine

Vote Count?
Kraken (1): Bat
blade (3) corn, Jeen, Merel
book (2): Illven, Cao
Jeen (2): Bat, Book
Lady (1): Cazero
Bat (1): blade
No Vote: Athedia, AV, Lentrax, Persolus, Kraken, LadySerpentine

[Lentrax]

I don’t know enough about this to say anything with surety about who is what.

But if Vault 11 congratulates everyone for not killing anyone, what would happen if we didn’t? I do still have a couple hours to vote, so I’ll wait to see if anyone has anything to say about this.

[JeenLeen]

Not liking something about the blade post, and I think it's not just that he's okay voting me. Feels to wafflely. (blade often waffles with time in-between for folk to react to said waffling.) But I think Cao has more evidence against him?

No, wait. I’m stupid. I forgot that he “only” voted red and got confused.

Could someone tell me who to vote to vote Cao?
I'll cross out my current vote now.

Weekends are bad for me, and I haven't comprehended the voting pattern yet. (I infer it's embarrassingly simple for me not to understand, but yet here I am.)

[Batcathat]

I don’t know enough about this to say anything with surety about who is what.

But if Vault 11 congratulates everyone for not killing anyone, what would happen if we didn’t? I do still have a couple hours to vote, so I’ll wait to see if anyone has anything to say about this.

As I think someone already suggested, I'm guessing the fact that it failed means we don't get another chance. Though if it says it failed again at EoD, it might be worth giving it a try D3.

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Could someone tell me who to vote to vote Cao?

Assuming the theory is correct, your vote will count for the player seven spaces after who you actually vote on the player list. So for Cao, that would be AV.

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Vote Count
Merel (1): Bat
Cao (3): corn, Jeen, Merel
blade (2): Illven, Cao
Persolus (2): Bat, Book
Cazero (1): Cazero
Book (1): blade
No Vote: Athedia, AV, Lentrax, Persolus, Kraken, LadySerpentine

Vote Count?
Kraken (1): Bat
blade (3) corn, Jeen, Merel
book (2): Illven, Cao
Jeen (2): Bat, Book
Lady (1): Cazero
Bat (1): blade
No Vote: Athedia, AV, Lentrax, Persolus, Kraken, LadySerpentine

You have me voting twice on each list (my Merel/Kraken vote is crossed out), otherwise it matches what I have.

[JeenLeen]

Book Wombat (BatCatHat)

Copy/paste.
Book Wombat (BatCatHat)

As I think on it, BCH has twice cast shade on me for not getting the voting mechanic or "forgetting" to post correctly. I get when he did it about me casting doubt on us knowing the method, but I had explicitly asked someone already how to vote Cao and he still casted shade on me.

Y'all should know my ego's too big for me to intentionally look stupid regardless of my alignment
But that he isn't giving me that benefit of the doubt makes me suspect him. Not sure if I suspect him or Cao more, but I'll vote him at least until I know how to vote Cao.

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Assuming the theory is correct, your vote will count for the player seven spaces after who you actually vote on the player list. So for Cao, that would be AV.

Ninja'd, and I guess I'll give him the benefit of the doubt since he answered me that time.

Vote Avatar Vecna with the intent of voting Cao.

[Lady Serpentine]

Hmm.

...a wrinkle I've just realized about the voting: I don't think it can be that simple, because that would mean there's no way to vote Athedia on almost any day, and Athedia through Lentrax today. And while I believe Flat would introduce bastard voting mechanics, bastard voting mechanics that can kill town purely through wolves being untargetable through RNG sounds a lot less likely.

Still. Might as well test it. Persolus (JeenLeen).

[Batcathat]

Hmm.

...a wrinkle I've just realized about the voting: I don't think it can be that simple, because that would mean there's no way to vote Athedia on almost any day, and Athedia through Lentrax today. And while I believe Flat would introduce bastard voting mechanics, bastard voting mechanics that can kill town purely through wolves being untargetable through RNG sounds a lot less likely.

If this is how it works, I'm assuming the list loops around, so that someone wanting to vote Athedia today would vote for Kraken.

[Lady Serpentine]

That would be plausible. Someone off-wagon might want to toss a vote there to confirm via tallies?

[Lentrax]

I suppose that’s true enough. I don’t know enough about how a lot of things work, so I am just fiddling around for now, I guess.

Hmm.

...a wrinkle I've just realized about the voting: I don't think it can be that simple, because that would mean there's no way to vote Athedia on almost any day, and Athedia through Lentrax today. And while I believe Flat would introduce bastard voting mechanics, bastard voting mechanics that can kill town purely through wolves being untargetable through RNG sounds a lot less likely.

Still. Might as well test it. Persolus (JeenLeen).

I’ll add another on, because one could be incidental, but two harder to be coincidence.

[Cazero]

My main problem with this game is that I never like any wagon.
But something's really itching me with the Cao wagon. Even if it's aimed at bladescape. The lucky number changing rules on us might be too bastardy, but maybe 7 is special?

I'll move my vote to bladescape (Book Wombat).