WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[AvatarVecna]

That would be plausible. Someone off-wagon might want to toss a vote there to confirm via tallies?

We confirmed it yesterday. Somebody voted player 17, the lucky number looped it around so those votes were on player 5.

I'll vote CaoimhinTheCape. On phone so figuring out who that really votes for is a pain in the ass, so I won't.

[JeenLeen]

Self-defense on who I think is the lead wagon 'sides me.
Also, if we're wrong and it's normal, well, Cao is my main suspect.

CaomhinTheCape (intent: Bladescape.

[Batcathat]

I should be off to bed soon, so I probably won't be around more before EoD (it's at 6 AM my time and I'm too old to stay up that late but too young to get up that early). I think Jeen remains the best option, though I don't see anything decisively towny about BW or blade either (not sure who I'd prefer out of those two, I think I might have the slightest of townleans on blade, but on the other hand his flip would probably tell us more than BW's).

[bladescape]

We confirmed it yesterday. Somebody voted player 17, the lucky number looped it around so those votes were on player 5.

I'll vote CaoimhinTheCape. On phone so figuring out who that really votes for is a pain in the ass, so I won't.

It's-a me, mario.

- - - Updated - - -

I...

Dunno what to think about this random wagon on me. It feels like people are vaguely voting me for ? reasons.

- - - Updated - - -

Though I guess I haven't been voted out early in a lil while so this could be fun.

If it comes down to it I could self-pres onto Jeen but also I'll be back by EOD and it won't change much rn so I'm keeping my vote.

- - - Updated - - -

I should be off to bed soon, so I probably won't be around more before EoD (it's at 6 AM my time and I'm too old to stay up that late but too young to get up that early). I think Jeen remains the best option, though I don't see anything decisively towny about BW or blade either (not sure who I'd prefer out of those two, I think I might have the slightest of townleans on blade, but on the other hand his flip would probably tell us more than BW's).

I do love seeing people imply a townread and then suggest people should vote them anyway.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Haven't been able to keep up with IRL, but I don't love the blade wagon.... especially since I can milk him for favours in Total War as a result*.

So bladescape, with the intention of voting Book Wombat.


*this is a joke, he owes me a favour anyhow.

[Athedia]

"First before I weigh in on this whole dilemna let me finish off this hand." Athedia had not heard from the other players in a while and so made to reveal her card.

Athedia (Dealer):

🃅🂻

Noting that it was below 16, the dealer drew another card.

🃅🂻🃊

Spoiler: Illven

Show

🂡🂴🂸

Spoiler: MerelBlackbird

Show

🂽🃍

Spoiler: Lentrax

Show

🂦🃄🂶

"Dealer is bust." She distributed caps to the players congratulating them on their winnings.

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I don’t know enough about this to say anything with surety about who is what.

But if Vault 11 congratulates everyone for not killing anyone, what would happen if we didn’t? I do still have a couple hours to vote, so I’ll wait to see if anyone has anything to say about this.

"I did propose this but maybe it is a solution for tomorrow as people seem to wish to test the lucky number theory today."

Hmm.

...a wrinkle I've just realized about the voting: I don't think it can be that simple, because that would mean there's no way to vote Athedia on almost any day, and Athedia through Lentrax today. And while I believe Flat would introduce bastard voting mechanics, bastard voting mechanics that can kill town purely through wolves being untargetable through RNG sounds a lot less likely.

Still. Might as well test it. Persolus (JeenLeen).

"Ah it is good to see you miss. As many pointed out if our theory is correct the loop meets itself like the wheel in a slot machine. The number itself simply represents the slip that all those machines suffer. The cards are a fair game, can I interest you for a hand?"

"As for my suspects, at this time no one has *particularly* struck me as suspicious. But I am watching the ones Murska was with when he accidentally aimed the target at himself. MerelBlackbird do you have any suspects?" The dealers eyes looked in Let'sGetKraken's direction as she spoke.

[bladescape]

This is going to be the weirdest post I'll ever make.

bladescape for self preservation

- - - Updated - - -

This would be funny if 7 = no change and I just die from my own vote.

[flat_footed]

Day 2 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

The events of the previous day and night have left the group shaken. Halfhearted attempts at conversation and gambling barely manage to drown out the sound of the robot cleaning up. It's clear that it's not meant for this kind of work, and actually manages to damage itself attempting to shift a particularly jagged chunk of concrete. A few men in suits stop by to glower at the lack of talk and activity for a time, and you can hear the word Securitron being muttered. Their tone is derisive as if the machine happily whirring along, oblivious to the damage it was causing itself, was a thing to be scorned. If nothing else, it seemed to follow orders without consideration for anything else. The job done, it again approaches the gathered people with the same smile plastered on its screen, though the numbers that flicker in and out have changed.

1-103
3-147
4-211
5-92

Two exposed wires brush against each other with a small explosion, blinding the group with the sharp crackle of electricity. You can smell ozone in the air as your vision slowly starts to return to you. A fourth line now shows against the cold black of the Securitron's monitor.

13-114

Rotating lights, much like you'd see atop a police vehicle, pop out of the top of its head, though it never drops the smile. Its wheel churns in place and the Securitron grabs hold of a hooded figure's wrist, wrenching it painfully. They gasp in pain as cards fall out from under their sleeves; perfect mirrors of the decks being used by the Casino. "Cheating when against The House is not permitted. It is punishable by immediate detention and questioning, followed by loss of possessions and life." Like the others before it, the cloaked figure is dragged to the back of the Casino, too stunned to resist or even scream in protest.

CaoimhinTheCape has been Busted. They were the Card Counter.

Night 2 has begun and will end in ~23 hours.

[bladescape]

So... that vote went the other direction.

Either alternate days or odds go up evens go down.

[AvatarVecna]

3-147
4-211
5-92
13-114

7 became 14.
11 became 2.
2 became 9.
4 became 11.

It's not alternating.

[bladescape]

Could you explain how that works then?

4 = AvatarVecna according to the SOD post. You had 0 votes on you.
11 = Cao according to SOD post. Who died.

If we take bladescape (2 in SOD post) and - 7 however, we get CaoimhinTheCape (16 -5 after -2 off 7.)

Which makes sense to me.

Explain how the votes:
(EOD vc was:
Vote Count
blade (5): Illven, Cao, Caz, Kraken, Blade
Cao (4): corn, Jeen, Merel, AV
Persolus (3): Bat, Book, Ti
Cazero (1): Cazero
Merel (1): Athedia
No Vote: Lentrax, Persolus)

Match up to it still going forwards.

- - - Updated - - -

Also 4 numbers vs 5 people being voted makes me wonder if that's even properly counting.

[Persolus]

1-82
1-1711
1-517
2-104
4-159
4-1812

From the first day end.

[Batcathat]

Also 4 numbers vs 5 people being voted makes me wonder if that's even properly counting.

You have Caz voting both himself and you, so I think the number of voted makes sense, at least. Other than that, I agree that the vote alternating direction makes sense, so I'm curious to hear AV's explanation (I'll admit I kinda skimmed the math about the numbers previously, as I kinda assumed we already had the answer).

- - - Updated - - -

On a different note, no message about failing the Vault 11 wincon this time, so presumably we missed our one chance with that one.

[AvatarVecna]

The math works better if you don't just look at who got yeeted, but look at the number of the votes. Then you'll know what you actually have to be scared about.

Spoiler: Uncrossed Votes D2

Show

CaoimhinTheCape

bladescape

Bladescape

Persolus

CaomhinTheCape

Persolus

Persolus

[B]bladescape

CaoimhinTheCape

CaomhinTheCape

So bladescape

MerelBlackbird

bladescape

These are the votes that were actually cast:

CaoimhinTheCape (4): corncobweb, MerelBlackbird, AvatarVecna, JeenLeen
bladescape (5): Illven, CaoimhinTheCape, Cazero, Let'sGetKraken, bladescape
Persolus (3): Batcathat, Book Wombat, Lady Serpentine
MerelBlackbird (1): Athedia

Living Players

1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. MerelBlackbird
4. AvatarVecna
5. Illven
6. Lentrax
7. Persolus
8. Cazero
9. Book Wombat
10. Let'sGetKraken
11. CaoimhinTheCape
12. Cuthalion
13. corncobweb
14. JeenLeen
15. Lady Serpentine
16. BatCatHat

So prior to any shifting, that would be:

4 votes on player 11
5 votes on player 2
3 votes on player 7
1 vote on player 3

3-147
4-211
5-92

First black number is the number of votes on that wagon.

Second black number is the player number after it's shifted by the lucky number.

Third white number is the player number before it's shifted.

So prior to shifting, the wagons were:

3 votes on player 7
4 votes on player 11
5 votes on player 2

Which is exactly what I calced above, except for some reason Athedia's vote on Merel didn't get accounted for in flat's write-up at all? That could be Athedia has a power where her vote doesn't count, or that Merel has a power where votes against her don't count (maybe just 1 vote against her doesn't count?), or maybe flat just screwed up. But the other 3 wagons exactly match up with how people voted.

EDIT: flat has since clarified that it was narrator mistake, and has posted 1-10 (whitetext 3). This matches up with 1 vote on Merel (player 3) getting shifted +7 to be on player 10 (Kraken), and now all uncrossed votes are accounted for.

Then they get shifted. The 3 votes on Persolus (player 7) get shifted to player 14. The 4 votes on CaoimhinTheCape (player 11) got shifted to player 2 because 11+7=18, but with only 16 players, it loops around (so it goes 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 1, 2). And the 5 votes on bladescape (player 2) got shifted to player 9.

This matches up with the black text in the end-of-day post. 3 votes on player 14, 4 votes on player 2, 5 votes on player 9. So why did player 11 die instead?

3-147
4-211
5-92

Two exposed wires brush against each other with a small explosion, blinding the group with the sharp crackle of electricity. You can smell ozone in the air as your vision slowly starts to return to you. A fourth line now shows against the cold black of the Securitron's monitor.

13-114

Because the first set is the actual vote count. And then something weird happened and Cao got 13 votes dumped on him that don't match up with anything anyone has said in-thread. There's 25 votes in this vote count, on a day when we only have 16 players and some of them didn't even vote. That's what should be worrying you right now.

[Athedia]

"Might votes be cumulative? Or someone has the power to reverse the direction of the lucky number? Or it is in fact an even odd day effect?"

[AvatarVecna]

[B]"Might votes be cumulative?

What, like crossed out votes are also counting? I doubt it. The white text indicates the 13 votes that came from nowhere got shifted to Cao (player 11) from me (player 4), and I don't think people voted me 13 times today, crossed out or otherwise.

[Athedia]

The math works better if you don't just look at who got yeeted, but look at the number of the votes. Then you'll know what you actually have to be scared about.

Because the first set is the actual vote count. And then something weird happened and Cao got 13 votes dumped on him that don't match up with anything anyone has said in-thread. There's 25 votes in this vote count, on a day when we only have 16 players and some of them didn't even vote. That's what should be worrying you right now.

"You make a good point. Which makes me wonder if it was the cumulative. Though I must say for a card counter Cao barely touched the table."

[flat_footed]

flat just screwed up

Numbers are hard

Fixed, no change to result.

[Athedia]

What, like crossed out votes are also counting? I doubt it. The white text indicates the 13 votes that came from nowhere got shifted to Cao (player 11) from me (player 4), and I don't think people voted me 13 times today, crossed out or otherwise.

"I had meant the previous days votes. But there being a mass delusion in what numbers we viewed also makes sense. Glad we cleared that up. So someone shifted all the votes to Cao, that ... is bad. What stops them from pulling that off again?"

[AvatarVecna]

"I had meant the previous days votes. But there being a mass delusion in what numbers we viewed also makes sense. Glad we cleared that up. So someone shifted all the votes to Cao, that ... is bad. What stops them from pulling that off again?"

The fluff made it sound like the 13 votes on me/Cao were additional votes, but there were 13 votes cast, and 13 on me/Cao...maybe it was a replacement instead of an additional. That's a plausible theory.

Of course either way if it's spammable then we may as well just not even vote. If someone can force everyone to vote who they want, it doesn't matter who we vote. If someone can add a number of votes to their target equal to the number of votes in the game, without even having to announce it in-thread, then they're always going to have more votes than the real wagons unless the "real wagons" are literally every vote on the same person (in which case we voters win against the secret super-voter by virtue of having reached the vote total first).

I'm assuming it's limited-use, partly cuz it didn't happen D1, and partly because if it's spammable, 70% of the game is a waste of everyone's time.

[Batcathat]

One thing that might speak against it being the result of a power use is that Cao seems like kind of an odd target. He was more trusted than D1, but I don't think he was at the top of anyone's townreads (though he did have a claimed power, which I guess they might have wanted to get rid of). Though I suppose it might be a targetable power (like, maybe BW has something like "the first time you're about to be busted, a random person voting you is busted instead" or something like that), in which case it could make sense.

And thanks for the explanation about the numbers, it does seem to make sense (even if it's an odd coincidence that the person seven steps away from the intended target ended up dying).

- - - Updated - - -

The above should obviously read "it might not be a targetable power".

Also, the forum seems to be feeling bad again, as I took me roughly five weeks to make this post.

[bladescape]

Huh.

I stand corrected. I just saw result and extrapolated it from my vote-map. That's my bad.

[AvatarVecna]

One thing that might speak against it being the result of a power use is that Cao seems like kind of an odd target. He was more trusted than D1, but I don't think he was at the top of anyone's townreads (though he did have a claimed power, which I guess they might have wanted to get rid of). Though I suppose it might be a targetable power (like, maybe BW has something like "the first time you're about to be busted, a random person voting you is busted instead" or something like that), in which case it could make sense.

And thanks for the explanation about the numbers, it does seem to make sense (even if it's an odd coincidence that the person seven steps away from the intended target ended up dying).

- - - Updated - - -

The above should obviously read "it might not be a targetable power".

Also, the forum seems to be feeling bad again, as I took me roughly five weeks to make this post.

First thought: could be it's not coincidence and whoever did it was trying to create this exact confusion about which way the lucky number shifts things. Idk how much weight to give that possibility tho.

Second thought: it might be a defensive move. Like, the way wagons should've worked, it was a race between blade and book? If one of them is a wolf, maybe a scumbuddy used a 1/game silent "I decide the yeet" power to save them. As for why cao...he was nonwolf claiming an info power yeah? Not a bad target for scumteam.

Third thought: this might just be an extra bastard mechanic? No real evidence to that but it's possible.

- - - Updated - - -

First thought plus second points to scum!blade a bit but I'm hesitant to declare that a certainty, in no small part because between the extra votes, the accid3ntally missing vote, and the vote shifting, getting confused about what happened is perfectly reasonable.

[Lady Serpentine]

Cumulative could include votes from previous days, but I think that's not reflected in the counts?

[Persolus]

For the record, unlike last game, i have absolutely nothing to do with the votes and i genuinely haven't cast a vote this game so far [which is not good but i will change that]

[Athedia]

Cumulative could include votes from previous days, but I think that's not reflected in the counts?

"I was merely confused but we have resolved the issue now the mass delusion is over. Don't breath in Securitron smoke."

"What intrigues me is presumptive alignment of a Card Counter. Now I will be clear, there is nothing wrong with counting cards, it is an honorable tradition with blackjack. But what Card Counter keeps hidden cards up his sleeves? That is the action of a Card Cheat."

[Cazero]

I said I would loot his cape, so *yoink*

For what it's worth, Cao was top of my townreads. And the only one.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I said I would loot his cape, so *yoink*

For what it's worth, Cao was top of my townreads. And the only one.

This has me in a WIFOM spiral.

Like, this is such an outright suspiciously wolfish thing to say to deflect suspicion that I genuinely cannot believe wolf!Cazero would say this. But then... that makes it a townish thing to say, which wolf!Cazero could say because it would get him town points, but would he take the risk in drawing attention to himself? Ahhhhhhhh.

[Cuthalion]

i think bladescape's posts aren't good and the vote movement around him is very dubious i think we should kill him eventually if we're able to figure out how lol

sorry for missing a phase

tempted to just give AV a long-term town pass for doing the mechanical figuring out of stuff