A Small Wager – A Practical Guide to Evil

[Caedorus]

Counting is not hard, it is simple. Is this not standard?

Tautologies can be useful on occasion, but i do not see the point in conversation; nothing is said.



It would depend on how skillful each was with their implement. I believe that a Carpenter is often employed for that manner, and I use one myself on occasion.

People often say that, but there are so many things that compel them. I don't understand it.


I take offence at that notion, I stated I was of Below in my first discourse this game. I have been nothing but honest since we began. I have been the Apprentice from the beginning.

[out of character - hopefully people are picking up on the Masego I've been channeling...?]


Oh, yes, and I believe i was supposed to inform you that I am not in fact dead. I was curious as to what happens on the execution, this little experiment has helped greatly.

Ugh, that's not fair, I like masego

And pretending I'm being town I now have to fight you

[3SecondCultist]

The man chuckled over the rim of his glass. Below’s lot were tricky at the best of times, but sometimes the story was on their side. Providence couldn’t be relied on - he had other tricks for that - but it sure made things easier when they lined up right.

He scribbled down the rest of his notes. Folks were dying like flies out here, and though he wasn’t partial to murder mysteries, it seemed possible that a knife could come for him at any time. Not that he thought he was a target, necessarily - he had years of practice at keeping his head down.

Oh well. He’d always been a practical man; best to give the uninformed majority the most information to balance the playing field, just in case.

Spoiler: PGtE Spoilers

Show

Book confirmed pre-game that there would be fewer ‘major’ Named in the game to start, favoring more transitive Names for transformations later (this is one possibility for the bastard mechanic, see below). Therefore, big hitters like Dread Emperor, Tyrant, Dead King etc are less likely to be in the game.

Same with the Woe: confirmed that they ‘do not translate well’ to a Mafia game, so less likely (but not impossible) to see them in final forms. Ranger, Hierophant, Warden, Warlord are less likely to be in play.

Possible Town Names:
White Knight, Rogue Sorcerer, Blessed Artificer, Ashen Priestess, Hunter, Augur, Stalwart Paladin, Exalted Poet (likely flat or AV)

Possible Wolf Names:
Black Knight (?), Chancellor, Assassin, Heir. Most likely 4 wolves, could be more.

• Wolf 1: Persolus (The Apprentice); Aspects are “Discern - ???” and “Twist - ???”
• Wolf 2: ???
• Wolf 3: ???
• Wolf 4: ???

These roles are not exclusive, but they are the most likely to be in the game given the above parameters.

D1 Counterbussers:

• Caedorus (Xi)
• AvatarVecna (Cazero)
• LetsGetKraken (Cazero)
• Snowblaze (Xi)
• MerelBlackbird (Xi)

Town should check these five players and get them to explain their vote movements (again), in light of being last minute counterwagons to confirmed wolf. Why did they move?

Possible Bastard Mechanic:
Culting Squires (2x?): Starting the game with a Neutral Squire (or 2x Squires) role who is eventually pushed through Providence game rules or another mechanic to become White or Black Knight for town or wolf team. Could be only 3 Wolves to start with a cult mechanic. Athedia is most likely one of the Squires.

- - - Updated - - -

I did not comment on possible application of Guide Names into WW archetypes. For the most part, the Names speak for themselves - an Augur for town is almost certainly a seer, for instance, while Hunter is probably a vig - but the Apprentice flip seems to indicate a departure from strict Guide canon, so Aspects are not guaranteed to be the same as in the serial. Speculation at this point would be narrowing the possibilities of what people can do needlessly.

[Book Wombat]

Night One ends now, please wait for results.

[Book Wombat]

In the mists of heavy dark, many seek to make their mark.
To twist the truth and break their tooth.
Yet not all goes to plan, and down falls one man.

Apprentice (Below)
Apprentice to arcane arts, magic is your salvation and the will to remake the world.

Aspects:
- Discern: See another's powers.
- Twist: Redirect all powers from one person to another.
- Bend: Once, you may redirect two strikes of judgement to another of your choosing.

Persolus sustained three minor injuries and two major injuries.

---

Day Two starts now, and will in end in ~46 hours.

[AvatarVecna]

If today I die,

To those that has vexed me so,

Your names will be known.

[Snowblaze]

hums to self

Okay so the "three strikes" thing has mechanical significance. I think we can reasonably suppose that one strike of judgement = one minor injury, so technically the elimination won't kill someone, it'll just reveal their alignment and make them easier to kill.

@Book Wombat does the displayed count of major injuries include those made from two minor injuries?

Anyway. I see 3SC's night post asked me to explain my (second) Xihirli vote since it was on a counterwagon to a wolf. Pretty much what I said: I wanted closer wagons for more information and at the time the count was Persolus 4/Xihirli 2.

And then I didn't switch because I (probably) misread vote movements and thought they made Xihirli more suspicious.

I will go do wagonomics.

[Book Wombat]

@Book Wombat does the displayed count of major injuries include those made from two minor injuries?

They are counted separately.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: wagonomics

Show

Let'sGetKraken 2: CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze
Persolus 2: flat_footed, Athedia
flat_footed 1: 3SecondCultist
Athedia 1: Cazero
Cazero 1: Persolus
Caedorus 1: Xihirli
MerelBlackbird 1: Let'sGetKraken
Xihirli 1: Caedorus

Not voting: AvatarVecna, Dakrsidder, MerelBlackbird

For reference.

Snowblaze: I'm not going to keep my vote on you, don't worry.

Snowblaze: Only 6 hours left! I guess I might keep my vote on you.

Don't love a few players being totally inactive but in the interest of self-preservation, Persolus.

It's a self-preservation vote, this move is basically forced regardless of his alignment. NAI.

I suppose switching to Persolus won't hurt.
Won't hurt me, at least.

Fourth vote on a wolf when no-one else had three votes. Gets town points imo. Except, that is, in wolf!Kraken worlds where this could... okay no a Persolus/Kraken/Cazero world is probably too tinfoil even for me. This vote gets town points, full stop.

I lost track of time. Moving to not be mean to Kraken so Vote: Xihirli.


I'll be around a bit more until deadline, but honestly I don't know what we have to really make a decision on right now. Feels like it's been all random votes and haikus.

Was pretty much my feelings at the time so I can't really argue with it, but looks worse in hindsight. Explain, please?

I was always planning on switching, I just wanted to see if the suggestion I wouldn't would lead to any interesting wagon movements. Which... we actually have wagon movements now, so I'm calling that a victory even though it's probably not due to me leaving my vote on you a little longer.

Caoimhin gets the thinnest of town points for accurately summing up my views on gamestate, but it's not exactly hard for wolves to fake those views.

Xihirli because in the absence of information the best move is to make sure there will be information on future days, which means competing wagons.

I stand by my process at the time even if it didn't lead to the best results later.

I suppose. Why not?

Vote Cazero for the yeet!

Best option, trust me.

Eh. If we knew Persolus/Xihirli were town I'd give this town points, but we most certainly do not know that, so... nullish I guess?

It's more that I realized it's hypocritical if I make a fuss about dying D1 because I love the source material, and then vote out someone else D1 who's also read it. Wish I'd thought about it earlier.

Cazero, my apologies. I did roll a die between the players with votes who had not already read it.

This could be perfectly genuine, but... it could also be a wolf just reaching for any pretext to spare a partner. I feel kind of bad suspecting him for it, but my gut says it is suspicious. (I guess we're doing this again, huh?)

Hello!
I just got home from vacation, and I'm sorry I've been MIA. My mind is not really on the game yet, but I did read, and on the surface, Xi looks like a reasonable decision. I will have more time after the weekend is over and we finish cleaning up..

It is a last-minute vote from someone who did nothing before this on the counterwagon to a wolf, which would have saved said wolf if not for unknown vote manipulation. You can't deny that's suspicious, though I don't want this to become the entire focus of discussion today. Merel, explain why Xihirli over Persolus or Cazero please?

tl;dr town points for Cazero, Merel looks bad surface-level for that vote, gut is suspicious of Kraken but brain isn't convinced, nothing solid on anyone else. Note to self: see who put the first two votes on Persolus, they might also get town points. One of them was flat_footed iirc.

- - - Updated - - -

flat_footed and Athedia.

Both votes were random; more inclined to give town points to the latter since second vote on a wolf on a slow D1 is a risky move for a partner, but it's not particularly strong.

Eh. Good enough for this stage of the game.

Going to sleep, hopefully more people will do stuff overnight.

[Snowblaze]

That did not, in fact, happen.

pokes thread with stick

[Xihirli]

If today I die,

To those that has vexed me so,

Your names will be known.

Okay but what if I REALLY want to?

I’m going to poke Merel; who do you suspect, person?

[3SecondCultist]

Spoiler: wagonomics

Show

For reference.

It's a self-preservation vote, this move is basically forced regardless of his alignment. NAI.

Fourth vote on a wolf when no-one else had three votes. Gets town points imo. Except, that is, in wolf!Kraken worlds where this could... okay no a Persolus/Kraken/Cazero world is probably too tinfoil even for me. This vote gets town points, full stop.

Was pretty much my feelings at the time so I can't really argue with it, but looks worse in hindsight. Explain, please?

I stand by my process at the time even if it didn't lead to the best results later.

Eh. If we knew Persolus/Xihirli were town I'd give this town points, but we most certainly do not know that, so... nullish I guess?

This could be perfectly genuine, but... it could also be a wolf just reaching for any pretext to spare a partner. I feel kind of bad suspecting him for it, but my gut says it is suspicious. (I guess we're doing this again, huh?)

It is a last-minute vote from someone who did nothing before this on the counterwagon to a wolf, which would have saved said wolf if not for unknown vote manipulation. You can't deny that's suspicious, though I don't want this to become the entire focus of discussion today. Merel, explain why Xihirli over Persolus or Cazero please?

tl;dr town points for Cazero, Merel looks bad surface-level for that vote, gut is suspicious of Kraken but brain isn't convinced, nothing solid on anyone else. Note to self: see who put the first two votes on Persolus, they might also get town points. One of them was flat_footed iirc.

- - - Updated - - -

flat_footed and Athedia.

Both votes were random; more inclined to give town points to the latter since second vote on a wolf on a slow D1 is a risky move for a partner, but it's not particularly strong.

Eh. Good enough for this stage of the game.

Going to sleep, hopefully more people will do stuff overnight.

Your answer to my question is fine, Snow, but wouldn’t in and of itself be enough for me to give you town points, as a wolf!you could certainly fake it. Thankfully, I have other sources confirming you are town (that I will not reveal at this time).

(Also I can see Athedia as town or Neutral, see my own tinfoil above, flat possibly as well if he is the Name I think he is)

Since it doesn’t seem like other folks are talking (which is bad for the gamestate and town in particular), I will direct this question to you:

Between Merel and Kraken, who would you say is more likely to be a wolf? You can answer neither, both, or ‘screw off Cultist, this is a false dichotomy’.

[Snowblaze]

Between Merel and Kraken, who would you say is more likely to be a wolf? You can answer neither, both, or ‘screw off Cultist, this is a false dichotomy’.

Screw off Cultist, this is a false dichotomy.

More seriously: I don't think Merel/Kraken are particularly tied to each other or particularly unpaired, they've just both individually done suspicious things. I'd say most likely one wolf between them + Merel more suspicious than Kraken, but really I just want both of them to talk more and to see how the rest of the game treats them before I can say anything with confidence.

What's your read on Kraken?

(...also I'm just going to say this: 3SC probably town but also I reserve the right to backtrack on and/or tinfoil this read at a future point.)

[3SecondCultist]

Screw off Cultist, this is a false dichotomy.

More seriously: I don't think Merel/Kraken are particularly tied to each other or particularly unpaired, they've just both individually done suspicious things. I'd say most likely one wolf between them + Merel more suspicious than Kraken, but really I just want both of them to talk more and to see how the rest of the game treats them before I can say anything with confidence.

What's your read on Kraken?

(...also I'm just going to say this: 3SC probably town but also I reserve the right to backtrack on and/or tinfoil this read at a future point.)

I agree they are not necessarily paired. They just happen to be two of the people I am suspecting currently (mostly because of wagons, same as you). Them voting for different people doesn’t pair or unpair them either; two wolves wouldn’t want to be caught trying to counterwagon a flipped D1 wolf, but it’s equally possible that one is town and another is wolf. I do currently think at least one of them is a wolf, though.

Spoiler: Kraken

Show

Kraken… I will admit it is hard for me to read him. He has been fairly quiet aside from being adamant about not being voted off D1, which is honestly a fair request (we are both big fans of the serial and have been waiting months for this game). That is not all too different from how he normally plays: he prefers to keep things close to the vest early on, but intervenes in big moments. See the last game when you and I were wolves, Snow.

I say ‘normally’ plays, because he does this as both wolf and town. The very first WW forum game we played together, he was a quiet wolf for the first few days before showing up in a big way later. He largely held to that pattern when he and I were wolves together with flat (it was in Tarot Club I believe). But then the last game we played together and he was town, he had a dayvig power and successfully bluffed wolf team, staying below radar as a target and coming closest to upending our victory.

Basically, he could be town or wolf. It is honestly too early to tell. The only reason I suspect him is the wagon movement to Xi, and he hasn’t answered my question about that yet.

That being said, I have a better handle on his play style than Merel’s, who I have played with maybe once or twice. I would be fine pushing either/both as wagons today, if only to put some pressure on them and get a better idea of gamestate.

LetsGetKraken, for now. I reserve the right to move this vote later if he shows up to explain, and/or if there is new information we can act on.

- - - Updated - - -

I realize I mentioned a question but only asked it implicitly. The question is: why the move to jump on Xi/Cazero at the end of D1?

[Let'sGetKraken]

What kind words from Cultist. I don't trust them.

Thankfully, I have other sources confirming you are town (that I will not reveal at this time).

Oh this is suspicious as hell. I do not like this one bit. I'll come back to this later.

Anyhow.

My vote movements D1 were largely motivated by not wanting to be a hypocrite; it occurred to me a little late that as upset as I would be to die D1 in a game themed around a web serial I love, someone else might get that too. Both Persolus and Xihirli were among those in the poll that had indicated that they had fully read Guide, and I would have felt like an ******* being all "I love this series, please don't kill me Day 1" and then doing the same to someone else.

I will say one thing. I know my vote movement was suspicious. But if I was a wolf, why on earth would I initially vote Persolus instead of just starting a wagon on a non-wolf? How does this weird half-measure where I pivot off a wolf after cementing them as a wagon, but in a suspicious manner, possibly benefit me as a wolf? Why wouldn't I just either commit to bussing Persolus, or pick someone else to wagon?

I will actually say one other, unrelated thing. The N1 post certainly strongly implies Persolus is dead. It has not stated it. And when I pushed Book for an answer, he refused to make it explicit.

So...

BEFORE THE GODS ABOVE AND BELOW, I SAY THAT PERSOLUS IS DEAD, AS HE HAS BEEN STRUCK DOWN THREE TIMES, FROM WHICH THERE IS NO RECOVERY.

[Snowblaze]

What kind words from Cultist. I don't trust them.



Oh this is suspicious as hell. I do not like this one bit. I'll come back to this later.

(snip)

I will say one thing. I know my vote movement was suspicious. But if I was a wolf, why on earth would I initially vote Persolus instead of just starting a wagon on a non-wolf? How does this weird half-measure where I pivot off a wolf after cementing them as a wagon, but in a suspicious manner, possibly benefit me as a wolf? Why wouldn't I just either commit to bussing Persolus, or pick someone else to wagon?

(more snipping)

ftr on the "sources saying I'm town" thing, I have no information beyond what Cultist just said. It makes me paranoid but that's probably just a me thing and I'm not digging into it without reason to believe it's false.

And your initial Persolus vote was for self-preservation. He and you were the only two wagons at the time you made it, and if you'd voted elsewhere and one of you had flipped it would have made the other look even worse. You changed to a different wagon only after you were no longer yourself in danger.

I'm not convinced that you're a wolf, but I think there is a logically consistent world where wolf!you does make those choices.

Thoughts on Merel?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Hm, I suppose. I guess I'm looking at it with the benefit of hindsight, but there's no guarantee that Persolus would have flipped there, in which case it wouldn't be the worst? But starting a last-minute wagon that kills a town member seems like a riskier gambit than just trying to start a new wagon halfway through the day, especially since there wasn't much substance to the wagons at that point anyhow.

On Merel? Hm. I don't like the lack of activity, but it's sort of the same thing that I think applies to me - it's such an inherently wolfy thing to do that I think an actual wolf wouldn't have done it. But I can see a world in which wolves try to save Persolus by putting heat on Merel.

I also think that a wolf would probably have posted earlier in the day, but we've had largely AFK wolves before so who knows.

Specifically on the cultist thing - it's a weird thing to say unless you have defenses built into your role, in which case, how do you know Snow is town? Maybe it's a bluff, I can see that happening, but it still bugs me.

No vote for now.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Frankly, given that we have such low activity this game, I feel like anyone with big (or any) posts is most likely either Town or someone who will be around to play the game and make Days easier.

I don't see any reason to suspect Kraken or Snow at this point. Want to see more of 3Sec, but also don't want to vote 3Sec.

Minor points to Xi for voting to make something happen. On that note, Vote: Merel

[Athedia]

So I learned that using aspects can have negative side effects. And that my second aspect does not give feedback.

Can someone explain minor/major wounds to me?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Alright, well, in the absence of movement in the thread, here's the list of players and my rambling thoughts on reading D1 & N1:

1. Caedorus - voted Xihirli. Jokes about pretending to be town. Seems risky to do after Persolus admitted to the same thing, but still, slight wolflean just based off the Xihirli vote.
2. AvatarVecna - Was on the counterwagon to a wolf (Xihirli) last minute, and it's alarming she's getting no shade when Merel is. Choosing only to speak in haikus.
3. Snowblaze - I am always a little suspicious of Snow. Started off on Xihirli. Moved to me to get things going. Gives a bit of credit to Cao in post 43, moves to Xihirli with what is... not the most compelling logic, I think? Overall pretty neutral.
4. flat_footed - voted Persolus in retaliation for poetry. Not quite late enough in the day for this to be definitive, but a risky thing to do as a wolf.
5. Xihirli - voted Caedorus, ostensibly by random chance.
6. Persolus - known wolf, probably dead. Voted Cazero re: random die roll (which makes me a little concerned they could be bussing from the get-go).
7. Dakrsidder - chose not to vote to break what was either a three-way tie. Indicates that they're okay with possibly losing a wolf or is confident in vote manipulation; slight townpoints.
8. Let'sGetKraken - Initially voted Merel. despite being amazing, perfect, and pleasant to deal with, was wrong in pivoting off Persolus to Cazero three hours before the end of turn. Reasoning for moving is in post #
9. 3SecondCultist - voted flat via random. Has done a lot of roleplay and mechanical stuff, which could be alarming, and then of course there's the stuff with Snow's alignment.
10. Cazero - Started off on Athedia via random die roll. Switched to Persolus as the fourth vote. Either a bussing wolf or, more likely, town. Strongest evidence for town so far.
11. MerelBlackbird - suspicious vote activity onto the counterwagon to a wolf with a plausible enough excuse.
12. Athedia - second vote on Persolus, theoretically due to die, but stayed there, which is important. Slight townlean.
13. CaoimhinTheCape - started off on me for unclear insubstantial reasons. Moved to Xihirli, a counterwagon. Declines to shift to Cazero, which is NAI, I think, but is a possible pairing.

And consequently:

List of leans (in descending order):

Townleans
Cazero. Fourth vote onto Persolus means either a bussing wolf or genuinely town.
Xihirli. If Xihirli was a wolf, it means the wolves were totally okay with the two biggest wagons being W/W until I came along last-minute with the Cazero wagon. Town points for this.
Athedia. Second vote on Persolus and more importantly stayed there. Had multiple opportunities to pivot.
Dakrsidder. Was okay with random chance when a wolf was on the line. Mind you, moving would have been risky and could have paired them with Persolus, but still. Could be a wolf with vote manip or knowledge of vote manip, but a wolf flipping makes this less likely.
Flat_footed. First vote on Persolus and stayed there. Flat isn't above bussing, but town points.

Neutral
Cao. Could have shifted to Cazero but chose not to, otherwise I think would be on my wolflean list. If Cazero flips wolf at some point, definitely my pick for a yeet, but I think that's unlikely to happen.
Snowblaze. I am just naturally suspicious and her voting is a bad look overall.
3SecondCultist. A lot of mech and roleplay. Nothing that could not be faked as a wolf here. The Snow thing is both keeping him out of townleans and wolfleans, because it seems like a weird play for either alignment.
Caedorus. Not really anything to base this on? I want more activity if possible. Between the vote and low activity, could be a wolf trying to stay hidden. Most wolfleanish of my neutrals.

Wolfleans
Merel. Slight wolflean based off behaviour but like, I still think this is a bad enough look that it could very well be bad luck and timing.
AV. Especially because she's getting no heat for her Xihirli vote, like I think she should.


Hm. I don't like either of the wolfleans enough to vote them right now. Some potential pairings between Cazero/Cao and Snow/Cultist, but who knows. So here's some questions instead.

1. Cao, was your initial vote on me random?
2. AV, want to explain why you thought that Xihirli was the best yeet D1?
3. Cazero/Xihirli: as the people I think are most townish right now, who do you think might be wolves?
4. Kraken, can you explain that you mixed up Xumtiil and Xihirli in the poll, and that your logic for not voting Xihirli was, uh, not valid at all? In that Xihirli would have been a perfectly fine yeet with your criteria? Oops. I mean, not oops, we got a wolf, but like... my bad. It is interesting that Xihirli hasn't pushed back on that mistake, though. I'd say slight wolflean for that, except the W/W thing makes me less concerned.

[Snowblaze]

...oh, that's what happened with the poll thing. Explains stuff. Okay, yeah, fair enough.

Also, Kraken, AV voted Cazero rather than Xihirli. Yeah, there's an argument against them and I can see why you think they're not getting enough heat (though counterpoint: I don't think anyone is being discussed enough in this gamestate, unfortunately).

I just... don't really have arguments that aren't "this person voted in a way that saved a wolf but I also don't see why town!them wouldn't have made a vote" which is frustrating.

Good point on Xihirli. I, uh, may or may not have you as also a wolf in wolf!Xihirli worlds which would somewhat invalidate your point, but... town!Kraken implies town!Xihirli? I could see that I think.

(I probably should just throw away the Kraken/Xihirli world because it was my working theory from pre-Persolus-flip and the fact I'm still clinging to it despite that significant counterevidence probably means confirmation bias on my part.)

(Also this is WIFOM but 3SC and I do not align in this way if we're w/w.)

More coherent thoughts later. Maybe.

[Athedia]

Okay so, the storyteller cleared some stuff up for me RE the wounds. Also I think I may have been attacked last night.

Also this is making me want to read the story now (aka move it up the to do list). Is there a more convenient method than the blog (like did they make a pdf or put it on AO3 or something?)

[Let'sGetKraken]

...oh, that's what happened with the poll thing. Explains stuff. Okay, yeah, fair enough.

Also, Kraken, AV voted Cazero rather than Xihirli. Yeah, there's an argument against them and I can see why you think they're not getting enough heat (though counterpoint: I don't think anyone is being discussed enough in this gamestate, unfortunately).

I just... don't really have arguments that aren't "this person voted in a way that saved a wolf but I also don't see why town!them wouldn't have made a vote" which is frustrating.

Good point on Xihirli. I, uh, may or may not have you as also a wolf in wolf!Xihirli worlds which would somewhat invalidate your point, but... town!Kraken implies town!Xihirli? I could see that I think.

(I probably should just throw away the Kraken/Xihirli world because it was my working theory from pre-Persolus-flip and the fact I'm still clinging to it despite that significant counterevidence probably means confirmation bias on my part.)

(Also this is WIFOM but 3SC and I do not align in this way if we're w/w.)

More coherent thoughts later. Maybe.

Ah, okay. My bad. Still a little suspicious of AV, but much less so. The problem is that now I don't have any real wolfleans, just players I feel reasonably confident aren't wolves, which is bad. AV, same question for Cazero.

Okay so, the storyteller cleared some stuff up for me RE the wounds. Also I think I may have been attacked last night.

Also this is making me want to read the story now (aka move it up the to do list). Is there a more convenient method than the blog (like did they make a pdf or put it on AO3 or something?)

No, the wordpress/blog is your best bet. There's a paid release on Yander that's somewhat edited but it's not necessary. Would still recommend, it's very good! The first chapter is really rough (it feels VERY amateur YA) but the quality improves dramatically pretty quickly, and especially from Book 2 onward it is just phenomenal.

[Cazero]

I still feel pretty bad at this game. No wolflean so far.

[Xihirli]

Wolfleans
Merel. Slight wolflean based off behaviour but like, I still think this is a bad enough look that it could very well be bad luck and timing.
AV. Especially because she's getting no heat for her Xihirli vote, like I think she should.

Between your wolf leans I only suspect Merel. I’ve got a good gut when it comes to AV by now and I’m learning to trust it, they’re town/above.

[AvatarVecna]

AV, same question for Cazero.

I'm low engagement

Because busy MU games

Ruining my life.

So here I roleplay

...but I should probably vote.

Who has opinions?

I'm not going to say that I'm in favour of switching my vote because Persolus has also read a PGtE...

But I'm going to strongly imply it. Anyone in favour of a last-minute wagon on someone who has not read the serial? Cazero, for instance?

I suppose. Why not?

Vote Cazero for the yeet!

Best option, trust me.

Someone suggested

"Counterwagon to save Pers?"

I said "Sure, why not?"

If you seek a wolf

How about interrogate

The "Let's save Pers" guy?

It's more that I realized it's hypocritical if I make a fuss about dying D1 because I love the source material, and then vote out someone else D1 who's also read it. Wish I'd thought about it earlier.

Cazero, my apologies. I did roll a die between the players with votes who had not already read it.

- - - Updated - - -

It's more that I realized it's hypocritical if I make a fuss about dying D1 because I love the source material, and then vote out someone else D1 who's also read it. Wish I'd thought about it earlier.

Cazero, my apologies. I did roll a die between the players with votes who had not already read it.

Who voted, then gave

Preemptive apology.

Is this TMI?

- - - Updated - - -

I guess my point is,

Some folk can drag me for this.

...you're not one of them.

- - - Updated - - -

If you'll excuse me,

I'm in totality path.

Eclipse time, baby! :3

[Let'sGetKraken]

Between your wolf leans I only suspect Merel. I’ve got a good gut when it comes to AV by now and I’m learning to trust it, they’re town/above.

Good info, because a) it helps move AV up and b) pairs the two of you somewhat.

AV does have a point in that I started the wagon, I just wanted to know her reasons for joining it and saying it was the best option. I get that looks hypocritical but like, trying to poke and prod where I can.

I guess Merel as the least bad option so far? I don't love it but I really don't have any wolfleans right now.

[3SecondCultist]

What kind words from Cultist. I don't trust them.

My vote movements D1 were largely motivated by not wanting to be a hypocrite; it occurred to me a little late that as upset as I would be to die D1 in a game themed around a web serial I love, someone else might get that too. Both Persolus and Xihirli were among those in the poll that had indicated that they had fully read Guide, and I would have felt like an ******* being all "I love this series, please don't kill me Day 1" and then doing the same to someone else.

I will say one thing. I know my vote movement was suspicious. But if I was a wolf, why on earth would I initially vote Persolus instead of just starting a wagon on a non-wolf? How does this weird half-measure where I pivot off a wolf after cementing them as a wagon, but in a suspicious manner, possibly benefit me as a wolf? Why wouldn't I just either commit to bussing Persolus, or pick someone else to wagon?

I will actually say one other, unrelated thing. The N1 post certainly strongly implies Persolus is dead. It has not stated it. And when I pushed Book for an answer, he refused to make it explicit.

So...

BEFORE THE GODS ABOVE AND BELOW, I SAY THAT PERSOLUS IS DEAD, AS HE HAS BEEN STRUCK DOWN THREE TIMES, FROM WHICH THERE IS NO RECOVERY.

Come on: you can't take compliments from a good friend?

I don't see a world where moving off of a wolf to a townie benefits you as a wolf, no... unless you were hoping that with D1 it would mostly be scattered randvotes and could point to your initial vote later to unpair you in the eyes of town. When you first voted Persolus, there was only two votes on them. Furthermore, randvotes on D1 are super easy to justify pivoting from, since they are - as the name suggests - random. If asked, you could say 'they all had equally likely chances to be a wolf'. Also, your stated reason at the time was 'self preservation'.

And, for full style points:

"Didn't you see Persolus fall off that cliff? There's no way he could have survived that."

On Merel? Hm. I don't like the lack of activity, but it's sort of the same thing that I think applies to me - it's such an inherently wolfy thing to do that I think an actual wolf wouldn't have done it. But I can see a world in which wolves try to save Persolus by putting heat on Merel.

I also think that a wolf would probably have posted earlier in the day, but we've had largely AFK wolves before so who knows.

Specifically on the cultist thing - it's a weird thing to say unless you have defenses built into your role, in which case, how do you know Snow is town? Maybe it's a bluff, I can see that happening, but it still bugs me.

No vote for now.

I definitely think Merel needs to get in here soon, otherwise it may end up being a single wagon day (bad for town).

Good info, because a) it helps move AV up and b) pairs the two of you somewhat.

AV does have a point in that I started the wagon, I just wanted to know her reasons for joining it and saying it was the best option. I get that looks hypocritical but like, trying to poke and prod where I can.

I guess Merel as the least bad option so far? I don't love it but I really don't have any wolfleans right now.

To be clear, are you referring to starting the counterwagon to Persolus D1? Because if so, the votes were for Cazero and it was AV who voted first with you jumping on 4 minutes afterwards.

Unless you're talking about starting the Persolus wagon by being the second person on it, in which case never mind.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, I forgot to answer the question about how I'm sure about Snow. I'm going to keep that to myself for now, but I trust my source.

[AvatarVecna]

Between your wolf leans I only suspect Merel. I’ve got a good gut when it comes to AV by now and I’m learning to trust it, they’re town/above.

From my point of view

This is essentially why

I townlean Snow/Xi.

Can't really explain

Or defend in argument.

...but I'm pretty sure?

- - - Updated - - -

To be clear, are you referring to starting the counterwagon to Persolus D1? Because if so, the votes were for Cazero and it was AV who voted first with you jumping on 4 minutes afterwards.

Unless you're talking about starting the Persolus wagon by being the second person on it, in which case never mind.

I quoted the post.

Kraken said "we should save Pers".

"How about Cazero?"

I voted Caz first,

Before LetsKetKraken did,

But he started it.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Come on: you can't take compliments from a good friend?

I don't see a world where moving off of a wolf to a townie benefits you as a wolf, no... unless you were hoping that with D1 it would mostly be scattered randvotes and could point to your initial vote later to unpair you in the eyes of town. When you first voted Persolus, there was only two votes on them. Furthermore, randvotes on D1 are super easy to justify pivoting from, since they are - as the name suggests - random. If asked, you could say 'they all had equally likely chances to be a wolf'. Also, your stated reason at the time was 'self preservation'.

I feel like you're misinterpreting my argument here. Persolus had two votes on him already, six hours before the stated end of day, and I moved onto him in self-defense. I was the third vote onto him. My point is that this is a really risky thing to do if my intention was to move off him shortly before end of day, especially with how quiet the thread was. This is a middle-ground between wagoning Persolus and getting towncred and starting an alternate wagon to save him, which accomplished neither. How is this a better wolf play than just trying to push a wagon elsewhere (votes were really loosely allocated) or just committing to wagoning Persolus for towncred? It's not impossible, I'm just pointing out that it would have been a bad play.

Also, it's not exactly like I totally randvoted, I cross-referenced the three people that had votes already that (I thought) didn't have an attachment to the setting and then rolled the die because I had no reasons to suspect any of them.

And, for full style points:

"Didn't you see Persolus fall off that cliff? There's no way he could have survived that."

Okay so like I am attempting to potentially deal with a bastardish mechanic here re: narrative and you are actively undoing this. I'm not sure if it's just a joke or a wolf hedging their bets, but this is not making me think you're any more town than before.

I definitely think Merel needs to get in here soon, otherwise it may end up being a single wagon day (bad for town).

I want to say that I don't love that there's no resistance to Merel here, tbh, but if Merel flips wolf I will eat **** for it and rightfully so.

To be clear, are you referring to starting the counterwagon to Persolus D1? Because if so, the votes were for Cazero and it was AV who voted first with you jumping on 4 minutes afterwards.

Unless you're talking about starting the Persolus wagon by being the second person on it, in which case never mind.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, I forgot to answer the question about how I'm sure about Snow. I'm going to keep that to myself for now, but I trust my source.

[/QUOTE]

AV has clarified, but I suggested Cazero based off the die roll between the three of them. I started the Cazero wagon and boy am I glad it wasn't successful.

And good, please don't reveal your source, but the fact that you've revealed it at all is making me a little worried. Would town!Cultist do that this early? I don't know. I'm not willing to vote you for a wolf, but I am willing to repeatedly imply you're a neutral.

[3SecondCultist]

I feel like you're misinterpreting my argument here. Persolus had two votes on him already, six hours before the stated end of day, and I moved onto him in self-defense. I was the third vote onto him. My point is that this is a really risky thing to do if my intention was to move off him shortly before end of day, especially with how quiet the thread was. This is a middle-ground between wagoning Persolus and getting towncred and starting an alternate wagon to save him, which accomplished neither. How is this a better wolf play than just trying to push a wagon elsewhere (votes were really loosely allocated) or just committing to wagoning Persolus for towncred? It's not impossible, I'm just pointing out that it would have been a bad play.

Also, it's not exactly like I totally randvoted, I cross-referenced the three people that had votes already that (I thought) didn't have an attachment to the setting and then rolled the die because I had no reasons to suspect any of them.

Okay so like I am attempting to potentially deal with a bastardish mechanic here re: narrative and you are actively undoing this. I'm not sure if it's just a joke or a wolf hedging their bets, but this is not making me think you're any more town than before.

I want to say that I don't love that there's no resistance to Merel here, tbh, but if Merel flips wolf I will eat **** for it and rightfully so.

AV has clarified, but I suggested Cazero based off the die roll between the three of them. I started the Cazero wagon and boy am I glad it wasn't successful.

And good, please don't reveal your source, but the fact that you've revealed it at all is making me a little worried. Would town!Cultist do that this early? I don't know. I'm not willing to vote you for a wolf, but I am willing to repeatedly imply you're a neutral.

Some thoughts, in order.

1) I missed flat's first vote, because it wasn't bolded. So I put you down as the second person to vote Persolus, not the third. That changes the context of the movement closer to what you described.

2) I was looking purely for votes, so didn't see you were the one to suggest the Cazero wagon before AV voted for it.

3) The comment was a joke, not an attempt to bring back a wolf. I also thought you were joking.

4) Merel was one of the people (besides you) that I first identified on my list of suspects for a wolf. I think if you're not a wolf, it's a decent possibility they are, and have since start of day, but there are other suspects (go back up to my post for the list of five people).

I have unvoted you, and am about ready to move on.