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  1. - Top - End - #31
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Illven View Post

    @Snowblaze Id quote the relevant parts of your statement but mobile posting.

    Any wolf as you define it could know that three of an alignment role is possible since Paddyfoots discard is three separate town alignments.
    ...and that's what I get for only skimming the discards and not really taking them in. Eh. Fewer town points for Luizeu then.
    Quote Originally Posted by Athedia View Post
    I think we should look into what each person tossed role wise. Remember, faction doesn't necessarily matter since we don't know what their other factions on the other cards were. But each person rejected this role specifically (even maybe this role on a different faction).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also now two other people have said it held true for them I will be honest that I got 3 town cards as well. Hence me bringing up that people might not have had a choice.
    So if the first person to declare this gets town points and the second is clearly extremely suspicious... what does that make the third person?

    I guess the fact she did bring this up before people hardclaimed it means it's probably not a jumping-on-the-bandwagon thing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Athedia View Post
    I am operating under the suspicion that most mafia/werewolf faction cards were kept for their role which then paired up to an unknown faction.
    Agreed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Luizeu View Post
    As far as D1 reason for votes go, this is slightly better than randomness

    Wombat
    Isn't it more logical to vote for Xihirli, who's the one who actually did the slightly-more-suspicious-than-random thing and also already has votes?

    Also I see the Obligatory Day One Snowblaze Wagon is in full swing. What fun.

    - - - Updated - - -

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  2. - Top - End - #32
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    As it happens, I am out - I don’t check discord often, sorry!

  3. - Top - End - #33
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    AvatarVecna

    I'm the survivor, my job is to chill and watch y'all have fun.

    Also can't believe y'all didn't pick wolf or mafia. How are we gonna have half the game die at night if we don't have em.
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  4. - Top - End - #34
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    bladescape

    Well lynching the survivor claim seems safest if we're gonna kill someone day 1.
    Survivor could be an asset to any faction depending on how the game goes so it's an unreliable ally.

  5. - Top - End - #35
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    bladescape

    Well lynching the survivor claim seems safest if we're gonna kill someone day 1.
    Survivor could be an asset to any faction depending on how the game goes so it's an unreliable ally.
    It's better than hitting town, obviously, but it's not a good D1 outcome unless we think blade is an SK pretending to be a survivor. It doesn't really give us any new information about who the cult members/aliens are in the way that voting off someone who isn't a claimed survivor is.

    That said, if we have any vigilantes, he's not a bad choice for a nightkill, depending on how willing he is to work with town. There's a pretty big gulf between "don't vote him out day one" and "he gets to survive until the end of the game untouched because he claims survivor".
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  6. - Top - End - #36
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Let'sGetKraken View Post
    It's better than hitting town, obviously, but it's not a good D1 outcome unless we think blade is an SK pretending to be a survivor. It doesn't really give us any new information about who the cult members/aliens are in the way that voting off someone who isn't a claimed survivor is.
    That is why i said IF we're killing someone. So far we have lots of people claiming to have only received town cards to excuse them dumping town cards and a survivor claim as possible suspects but i don't like killing D1 in these games cos town is usually the biggest faction so your more likely to hit town until we have a chance to gain concrete info.

    That said i am new to playing these games on here so if people are convinced someone is suspect based on how they behaved in previous games i'm not opposed to going along with it.

  7. - Top - End - #37
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    So far we have lots of people claiming to have only received town cards to excuse them dumping town cards and a survivor claim as possible suspects but i don't like killing D1 in these games cos town is usually the biggest faction so your more likely to hit town until we have a chance to gain concrete info.
    While it's true that D1 yeets are pretty likely to be town (though I suppose we don't know whether townies are the majority in this particular game), I think trying to rely entirely on power results (I assume that's what you mean by "concrete info"?) seems risky even without accounting for them potentially being screwed with and us not knowing how many info gathering roles we have. So having D1 votes to look back at is useful, regardless of who flips.

    Granted, with two non-town factions even not accounting for neutrals, deducing based on votes might be even less reliable than it is normally, so this might be less true than in a more standard game.

  8. - Top - End - #38
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    That is why i said IF we're killing someone. So far we have lots of people claiming to have only received town cards to excuse them dumping town cards and a survivor claim as possible suspects but i don't like killing D1 in these games cos town is usually the biggest faction so your more likely to hit town until we have a chance to gain concrete info.

    That said i am new to playing these games on here so if people are convinced someone is suspect based on how they behaved in previous games i'm not opposed to going along with it.
    We had 3? 4 if you count Paddy. And we have often had oddly good luck with Day One.

    We also don't really know the other factions end goals unless someone is familiar with them. I assume Cult is standard (aka create converts). SK as a neutral is also a known. But any idea on like Alien? Do they need to ID other people? Pod People them?

  9. - Top - End - #39
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Athedia View Post
    We also don't really know the other factions end goals unless someone is familiar with them. I assume Cult is standard (aka create converts). SK as a neutral is also a known. But any idea on like Alien? Do they need to ID other people? Pod People them?
    The wincons are in the faction info in the first post. Aliens are: "As alien, you have access to a 24/7 factional chat with the other alien players. You win when all other factions (except Survivor) have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from happening", so pretty standard, except they don't necessarily get a NK to do it.

  10. - Top - End - #40
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Athedia View Post
    I wouldn't just go through the list of town people, remember folks take a faction from one card and the role from another. So they may be throwing out town cards because there was another town card in their pile.

    Not thinking of that is tbh a little weird.

    Xihirli

    I find it personally hilarious we eliminated both the Werewolf and Mafia factions though. Like... those are the name of the game!
    No, I thought about it, it just wasn’t enough of a reason not to put "someone discarded a town card" slightly ahead of "random vote" for D1.
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  11. - Top - End - #41
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Well, I suppose they definately don't get a NK, but might have one or more DK.

  12. - Top - End - #42
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    Also can't believe y'all didn't pick wolf or mafia. How are we gonna have half the game die at night if we don't have em.
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  13. - Top - End - #43
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    The wincons are in the faction info in the first post. Aliens are: "As alien, you have access to a 24/7 factional chat with the other alien players. You win when all other factions (except Survivor) have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from happening", so pretty standard, except they don't necessarily get a NK to do it.
    Oops, I should have actually finished reading that instead of tuning it out.

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    AvatarVecna

    I'm the survivor, my job is to chill and watch y'all have fun.

    Also can't believe y'all didn't pick wolf or mafia. How are we gonna have half the game die at night if we don't have em.
    I think people didn't pick them because they are standard. We rarely get cult (at least we haven't really in the games I have played) and aliens is totally new. So folks would likely go for those over something that has a known playstyle.

    Then we have those certain people that will beeline for something like SK. The ones that enjoy that whole cat and mouse game. Looks at some of those people who know who they are

  14. - Top - End - #44
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Benoojian View Post
    That's exactly what someone who knows exactly who their buddies are would say if none of them threw out a town

    Also why start at the bottom, that's just weird. Are you protecting your buddy Wombat by making him the 8th kill, knowing we'll never get that far?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also is Paddyfoot still in the game just without a role?
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post

    Also I see the Obligatory Day One Snowblaze Wagon is in full swing. What fun.
    Starting from the top is exactly as arbitrary as starting from the bottom, but okay. I really don’t like the Snowblaze wagon, so I’ll make BookWombat a wagon.
    Plus, this was always part of my secret plan to avoid voting for my buddy at the bottom of the list, Cap.

    On a more serious note, I don’t expect this voting method to survive past D1, or really past contact with the mob. It is merely, to me, a superior way of D1 voting than just picking a person at random. By D2 we’ll have scrying results, tells, dead bodies to pair up with people, lies, and bloodlust. So I never thought we’d actually go up (or down) the list.

    EDIT: Fixed some typos.
    Last edited by Xihirli; 2024-07-10 at 07:25 AM.
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  15. - Top - End - #45
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Athedia View Post
    Then we have those certain people that will beeline for something like SK. The ones that enjoy that whole cat and mouse game. Looks at some of those people who know who they are
    Are you implying that just because I've talked for literal years about wanting to play SK I would've picked that in two seconds if I had the chance? (Yes. Yes, I almost certainly would have. But alas.)

  16. - Top - End - #46
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Not that I mind the confirmation. But should Paddyfoot have posted if they are out?
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  17. - Top - End - #47
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    AvatarVecna

    I'm the survivor, my job is to chill and watch y'all have fun.

    Also can't believe y'all didn't pick wolf or mafia. How are we gonna have half the game die at night if we don't have em.
    I'll take "things that may as well happen" for 200.

    Also you think that's bad, just wait until we stop yeeting people for "no particular reason".

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    bladescape

    Well lynching the survivor claim seems safest if we're gonna kill someone day 1.
    Survivor could be an asset to any faction depending on how the game goes so it's an unreliable ally.
    There's 1.5 anti-town factions with no guarantee that town is a majority, and you want to yeet the survivor claim?

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    That is why i said IF we're killing someone. So far we have lots of people claiming to have only received town cards to excuse them dumping town cards and a survivor claim as possible suspects but i don't like killing D1 in these games cos town is usually the biggest faction so your more likely to hit town until we have a chance to gain concrete info.

    That said i am new to playing these games on here so if people are convinced someone is suspect based on how they behaved in previous games i'm not opposed to going along with it.
    Oh I see I misunderstood. There's 1.5 anti-town factions with no guarantee that town is a majority, and you want to yeet nobody. Understood.


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  18. - Top - End - #48
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Illven View Post
    Not that I mind the confirmation. But should Paddyfoot have posted if they are out?
    Have a heart, Illven!

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  19. - Top - End - #49
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    AvatarVecna

    I'm the survivor, my job is to chill and watch y'all have fun.

    Also can't believe y'all didn't pick wolf or mafia. How are we gonna have half the game die at night if we don't have em.
    Barring counterclaims I'm fine with letting you chill on the sidelines for a while. Care to claim a role as well as alignment?

    Also: possible Cult Fanatic wiping out aliens + trigger-happy vigilantes.

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    bladescape

    Well lynching the survivor claim seems safest if we're gonna kill someone day 1.
    Survivor could be an asset to any faction depending on how the game goes so it's an unreliable ally.
    Eh, I would prefer to try and find a wolf or at least generate more information by trying to do so.

    Also re: SK pretending to be Survivor, I am completely fine with letting an SK live until we've eliminated the aliens and cult. And since we know when each faction has been eliminated, if there's only an SK left we know who to target first...

    (Actually wait tinfoil: bladescape could have taken the role from the Survivor card and a wolf alignment, and he would then know there's no possibility of counterclaims. So he does not get a free pass to endgame. Still don't particularly want to murder him D1 though.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Starting from the top is exactly as arbitrary as starting from the bottom, but okay. I really don’t like the Snowblaze wagon, so I’ll make BookWombat a wagon.
    Plus, this was always part of my secret plan to avoid voting for my buddy at the bottom of the list, Cap.

    On a more serious note, I don’t expect this voting method to survive past D1, or really past contact with the mob. It is merely, to me, a superior way of D1 voting than just picking a person at random. By D2 we’ll have scrying results, tells, dead bodies to pair up with people, lies, and bloodlust. So I never thought we’d actually go up (or down) the list.

    EDIT: Fixed some typos.
    Pocket attempt denied.

    (For newbies: "pocketing" means, as a wolf, being nice to, agreeing with or townreading town players in the hope that will make them townread you. In this case Xihirli disliking the votes for me could be an attempt to pocket me. That's not a particularly serious accusation though.)

    I'm actually pretty much fine with the votes on me with the possible exception of Benoojian, though.
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  20. - Top - End - #50
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Athedia View Post
    I think people didn't pick them because they are standard. We rarely get cult (at least we haven't really in the games I have played) and aliens is totally new. So folks would likely go for those over something that has a known playstyle.
    We don't normally have them cuz they're a pretty big balance issue. Aliens as a faction are defined by having stronger powers than normal, but with no faction kill; in Crazy Idea, this is fine cuz there might be 2 faction kills and who knows how many kill powers floating around, but in a normal game, you'd need an awful lot of aliens with strong powers to make up for the fact they don't have a factional kill.

    On the flipside, balancing a cult is incredibly difficult. If you've got a 100 player game and the split is 98 town/2 cult, as long as culting is guaranteed to work, cult wins - because you may get one during the day, but each night, a townie becomes a cultist. So D1 it becomes 98/1, N1 it becomes 97/2, D2 it becomes 97/1, N2 it becomes 96/2, etc. And obviously it just goes even worse if town doesn't play perfect and snipe the cultists every single day. Cult is kept in check by baners that make people immune to culting (even just temporarily), roleblockers that prevent cultists from using the factional, and vigilantes who can target either cultists or at least the same townies that the cultists are targeting. It can still be quite a rough game, but it becomes at least possible for town to win. Oh and if the game only starts with 1 cultist, it has exactly the same ability to spiral out of control very quickly, but also might just end immediately with a lucky yeet D1.

    With the above information in mind - that the existence of kill powers and factional kills is what makes it easier for aliens to win, and harder for cult to win - you can probably guess my thoughts on whose game this is.

    Then we have those certain people that will beeline for something like SK. The ones that enjoy that whole cat and mouse game. Looks at some of those people who know who they are
    I did not pick SK. Cross my heart and hope to kill!

    *whistles innocently*


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  21. - Top - End - #51
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    There's 1.5 anti-town factions with no guarantee that town is a majority, and you want to yeet the survivor claim?
    Oh I see I misunderstood. There's 1.5 anti-town factions with no guarantee that town is a majority, and you want to yeet nobody. Understood.
    Well what basis do we have for voting anyone out?

    The cards discarded and the elimination of maf and ww mean that those who discarded town are a bit more likely to be non town and those who discarded non town are slightly more likely to be town* but not enough that i want to lynch any of them.

    So far i've seen random votes and people claiming town but no role or suvivor but no role which gives little to go on.

    Why is a random lynch a good idea?

    *Cos everyone got 1 town card and there were probably a lot of maf+ww cards mixed in.

  22. - Top - End - #52
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    Well what basis do we have for voting anyone out?

    The cards discarded and the elimination of maf and ww mean that those who discarded town are a bit more likely to be non town and those who discarded non town are slightly more likely to be town* but not enough that i want to lynch any of them.

    So far i've seen random votes and people claiming town but no role or suvivor but no role which gives little to go on.

    Why is a random lynch a good idea?

    *Cos everyone got 1 town card and there were probably a lot of maf+ww cards mixed in.
    The basis is "is every vote that doesn't result in someone dying is a win for cult". The ideal game for cult is nobody dies until all townies are culted and all uncultable targets are identified, and then aliens (and any possible SK) gets swept off the board. A poorly-aimed vote/kill might make cult win quicker, but it doesn't actually increase the odds of cult winning as compared to a game where nobody dies.

    There might not necessarily be a logical, explainable reason to yeet any given person in the game - that's more of a vibe thing, at this point in time, you feel out who feels like they're playing anti-town and who isn't. But every kill opportunity that gets skipped is to the cult's advantage. Of course, maybe you don't see that as a problem - after all, from a certain perspective, it's only really a problem for aliens and SK. Town and Survivor can win with cult just fine.


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  23. - Top - End - #53
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    Why is a random lynch a good idea?
    It mostly helps down the line. If I vote you (in a situation where you're likely to get yeeted), even if it's for completely random or irrelevant reasons and you turn out to be an alien, I'm probably not one (yes, it's obviously usually way more complex than that, but you get the idea).

  24. - Top - End - #54
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    Well what basis do we have for voting anyone out?

    The cards discarded and the elimination of maf and ww mean that those who discarded town are a bit more likely to be non town and those who discarded non town are slightly more likely to be town* but not enough that i want to lynch any of them.

    So far i've seen random votes and people claiming town but no role or suvivor but no role which gives little to go on.

    Why is a random lynch a good idea?

    *Cos everyone got 1 town card and there were probably a lot of maf+ww cards mixed in.
    I had this exact thought process when I started playing here - basically, it's not actually a random lynch, because the non-town factions know who they are and are incentivized to push it towards town*. So whoever flips, and whoever voted for them, stats to give us information. Whoever didn't vote for them also gives us information. We can use this, as people start dying, to draw links and make educated guesses about who the aliens and cult are.

    On the other hand, if you wait until night to start yeeting, you're basically handing the wolves an opportunity to start killing - and you know they're going to kill town - before you start trying to yeet them (yeet = lynching, voting off during the day, etc). You're basically in the exact same position, with MAYBE having the chance to get valuable information from investigative powers. You let the first kill be 100% town, instead of only probably town.

    But also, AV, this isn't alignment indicative behaviour from Jolly if they haven't played here in a while and if they're not familiar with our meta.

    *well, sometimes the non-town factions will willingly throw someone under the bus early to cement their position as town. In a high-powered game, this seems less likely to happen, but definitely still possible.
    Last edited by Let'sGetKraken; 2024-07-10 at 11:59 AM. Reason: Edited for typo - I said non-town when I should have said town.
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  25. - Top - End - #55
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BlackDragon

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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Town and Survivor can win with cult just fine.
    Not according to the first post they can't: As town, you are likely part of the largest faction at the start of the game. You win when all other factions (except Survivor) have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from happening. You and your allies do not get a factional chat, and your powers are the standard versions:

    Town still has to kill cult same as every other faction except survivors.

  26. - Top - End - #56
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by JollyChris View Post
    Not according to the first post they can't: As town, you are likely part of the largest faction at the start of the game. You win when all other factions (except Survivor) have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from happening. You and your allies do not get a factional chat, and your powers are the standard versions:

    Town still has to kill cult same as every other faction except survivors.
    I assume AV's point was that townies can win with the cult (by being converted), unlike the other factions.

  27. - Top - End - #57
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    BlackDragon

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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I assume AV's point was that townies can win with the cult (by being converted), unlike the other factions.
    Oh right that makes sense. My bad.

  28. - Top - End - #58
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

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  29. - Top - End - #59
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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Oh and of course there's no guarantee we're locked into a cult victory. Like maybe the only cultist is Snowblaze, and this is a town vs aliens game. Or maybe there's only one townie, and once they're converted the game is 10 aliens/6 cultists and it's a matter of who has more killing power. That'd be pretty silly, but it's possible. Maybe all townies pursue their wincon instead of taking an easy victory by getting converted, and hunt down both cult and aliens.


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    Default Re: Crazy Idea IV: Everything Everywhere All At Once!

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cap View Post
    That makes sense, it's hard to believe Cultists would be this much more frequent, so all those Mafia/Werewolves must have gone somewhere.

    Anyway, yesterday I seem to have left out the second half of the math, so for completeness I'm compelled to also estimate the probability P(S*|-S) of being Scum having discarded Scum:

    P(S*|-S) = P(S*,-S) / P(-S) = 2 * P(S*,-S)

    P(S*,-S) = P(S*,-S|0N) * P(0N) + P(S*,-S|1N) * P(1N) + P(S*,-S|2N) * P(2N) + P(S*,-S|3N) * P(3N)

    P(S*,-S|2N) = P(S*,-S|3N) = 0 obviously
    P(S*,-S|0N) = 1 obviously
    P(S*,-S|1N) ≈ P(S*|1N) ≈ Ps see previous assumptions

    P(S*|-S) ≈ 2 * [P(0N) + Ps * P(1N)]
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