Lucky Dice

[SoD]

Do you beleive in a dices luck? Or a way to imbue them with extra luck? My 8d6 (2 lots of 4d6, 4 silver, 4 white) stat dice recently rolled me the equivlant to 59 point buy (16, 15, 16, 17, 18, 10), and I was thrilled. They had always given me slightly better than average stats, but this was amazing! However...since then, they've yet to give me anything amazing. Here, I'll roll 3 lots of stats:

13, 8, 9, 10, 18, 6. (Wow. An 18! Typical...not bad enough to warrent a reroll, but bad enough to be **** annoying)-22 point buy.

15, 16, 14, 11, 13, 8. (I swear this is the first good stat lot I've seen since the lucky rolls.)-32 point buy (I don't beleive it! Broken stuff always works when you show other people!)

9, 12, 11, 6, 13, 9. (This is average rolls lately.)-12 point buy.

Any way to put more luck in them? Or do I need to retire my favorite dice? Any lucky dice stories from out in the playground?

[Sstoopidtallkid]

I wish I knew. I recently took a hammer to a d20. My stats are usually junk, with the occasional massive roll. My rolls in-game are horrid, too. Not just my rolls. Any roll that specifically affects me will be about as bad as possible. I lost a char due to failing 4 reflex saves out of 8 when facing a bunch of casters. Against their Lightning Bolts, out of wands. I needed a 4 to save. And I still might have been fine, but the DM rolled abnormally high damage. I was not happy, not happy at all. Not that I'd planned to survive, but I had hoped I'd get a hit or 2 in. I might have even with that roll luck anyways, if I hadn't faced 4 20s on Init. Apparently, the dust from my body formed a small electric storm that lasted for hours and was very pretty, so I'm told.

[Staven]

We have this one d20. It is a fickle creature. We will roll a 20 on finding the king's sceptor on a search check, right after a long and grueling fight with the lich, who pretty much took out the tank, because the tank rolled a 1 on his fort save to resist the paralyzing touch. Oh, and the wizard is pissed off because every single one of his spells, saved for that last one, was used up on the lich because it kept rolling so high. Our die doesn't hate us. It just likes toying with us.

[Kobold-Bard]

I have a gold d20 (plated obviously) that is a lucky charm rather than a lucky dice.

As long as I leave it in my dice bag it imbues the others with luck but it itself is an evil sod, I don't think I've ever rolled higher than a 9 on it.

So as long as I have it but don't use it, my other dice seem to work consistently well.

And yes, I know this is insane, but thats the way I roll (literally )

[Hal]

I have a gold d20 (plated obviously) that is a lucky charm rather than a lucky dice.

As long as I leave it in my dice bag it imbues the others with luck but it itself is an evil sod, I don't think I've ever rolled higher than a 9 on it.

So as long as I have it but don't use it, my other dice seem to work consistently well.

And yes, I know this is insane, but thats the way I roll (literally )

Don't you see what's happening there? It loses all of its luck to the other dice via osmosis! Just leave it in a bag with one die, and that die will be perfect.

As for me, my luck just varies way too much. I tend to hit 15+ when it is of no importance (random combat rolls where I'm not a high contributor, spot/listen checks to notice something in the room, etc.). I tend to largely hit 5 or less when it is more important . . . search checks, knowledge checks, anything important. The only exception last week was when we found some artifact and we didn't know what it was. I rolled a 20 for a UMD check to figure out what the thing did. Basically, we had this alien cube thing and I started treating it like a Rubik's cube. Nearly killed the whole party doing it.

[Tsotha-lanti]

"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here.) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

[Hal]

"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here.) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

. . . Do you have to suck all the fun out of the room?

[leperkhaun]

i dont believe in lucky dice, i however do believe in dice that have some super super super small defects that causes it to tend to roll certain numbers.

[Bryn]

Tsotha-lanti, all these elaborate dice rituals are really one long running joke among gamers. Wey know it's not real, but it's funny, so we do it all the same.

[Sstoopidtallkid]

Tsotha-lanti, all these elaborate dice rituals are really one long running joke among gamers. Wey know it's not real, but it's funny, so we do it all the same.

RPGers. We may have degrees in Statistics, Probability Theory, and Advanced Mathematics, but when facing a Dragon, we will still grab the White d20, because "It's hot tonight".

[Quirinus_Obsidian]

thanks, Mr. Buzzkillington.

But in all honesty, superstition is high amongst gamers. I freeze my dice and figurines after every game. That and I love the cold element. It may not be "optimized" but is still fun to play.

[Mr.Bookworm]

I lovingly handcrafted a paper d6.

I took out all my dice, put them in a circle around it so they could see.

Then I impaled the d6 on a pencil, and set it on fire.

Now they know the consequence of failure.

[Demons_eye]

You sir are f*cking awsome

[snoopy13a]

"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here.) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

You're wrong. Everyone knows in a coin flip that "tails never fails"

I do always call tails though. I like the rhyme

[Isomenes]

RPGers. We may have degrees in Statistics, Probability Theory, and Advanced Mathematics, but when facing a Dragon, we will still grab the White d20, because "It's hot tonight".

So profound, and all too true. May I sig this?

[Return of Lanky]

As the GM for my group, they dread when I bring out a die they call PC Killer, a orange with black flecks d20 that's the size of a hardball. The thump it makes when I roll it is truly awesome, as is the fact that it's one of my luckiest dice. I save it for the big-bad bosses.

Tsotha-lanti: Part of a die's "luck" is the tiny imperfections which skew it's completely random rolling in some way. I've got a d10 with a very slight chip in one corner which means that it still flip-flops between the 1-5 size and the 6-10 side when slow rolling. For some gamers, that d10 would be "bad luck", consistently bringing them to the lower side. Others might discover it to be "good luck", bringing them to the higher side regularly. The chip is nigh-unnoticeable, but when the d10 is rolling slow enough to just be lazily slipping from one plane to another, it does that little flip no fail every time a 7 or a 4 comes up.

[kamikasei]

Sure, any given die is likely to be a little biased due to imperfections in its manufacture. I doubt most players' dice superstitions line up with the actual statistical performance of their dice, though. For one thing, a genuine bias in the die can have nothing to do with a perception that they roll whatever you want, or whatever you don't want, and may change their tendencies according to what you need; or that a die is "toying" with you, or tends to fail when you need it, or anything like that. All the fallacies Tsotha-lanti mentions are in action in those cases.

Anyway, no, in case it's not obvious I don't believe in luck and I think the notion is actually harmful.

[Vortling]

Worse than real life dice are the dicebots you find in chat channels, messenger clients, and the like. They are never appeased and almost always favor the DM. It's crazy how many 20s the DM will roll compared to the sum total rolled by the players.

[Laurellien]

"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here.) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

Well it just so happened that while playing warhammer 40k, I had a set of bad luck with my daemon princes that I put down to random chance, typically they would make 5 attacks on the charge, needing 3's to hit, and only 2 would hit. Therefore, in the next three games, I actually kept a log of their combat performance, and in each game, over half of their attacks missed. I got new dice, and they seem to work well.

[Saph]

I have the same set of dice I use for everything. Even when one seems to be doing better than the others I try to use them all evenly, because I don't want to discourage any of them. :)

Most of the time I think the 'lucky/unlucky dice' thing is cute, but on rare occasions it gets on my nerves. There's one guy in our group who keeps complaining about his luck IN A VERY LOUD VOICE, and even will throw his dice if he's upset.

At yesterday's session he was so angry about his damage result for a 5d6 Fireball that he threw a couple of the dice across the table and scattered the minis. The result? 13 on 5d6.

My probability skills aren't good enough to calculate the standard deviation of 5d6 off the top of my head, but I do know that getting outraged at a result of 13 is not reasonable.

- Saph

[Lydronk]

My d10 set can give nearly infinite number of rerolls if conditions are right. To the ones who doesn't now, in nWoD system, results of 8, 9 and 10 are success on a d10. If you get 10, you roll again, and add the new result. If it is 10 again, you roll again and this goes on...

If my dice pool is consisted of 5+ dices, which I am sure will get at least an exceptional success, and none of the results is a success except one or two 10s, I may get an exceptional succes. While chance of gettin an exceptional success is greater with more dice on the pool, and one 10, it lowers if there is two 10s, thus possibly not enabling an e.s. anytime.

I figured that the key here is first confidence, then hopelessness.

I must bu sure that there will be a high number of success, but must be dissapointed and think "this won't work!" when get the low number of successes. I also think that my dice don't do this favor to me that much, while players are affected by my thoughts so often! I hate you d10s!(No, I actually don't...)

[overduegalaxy]

Whenever my dice are at rest, they must always have their highest value facing up. This way, as gravity slowly and gradually deforms them, they'll weigh slightly more on the side opposite their highest value.

It's totally scientific.

[Khosan]

File down the edges of high numbers. Keeps the die rolling when that face is down, meaning it's more likely that the high numbers will land face up.

[TheCountAlucard]

Friday's game was disappointing because just about every dice roll on the players' side was an utter failure. We're talking, "the party hauls up a treasure chest, and it hits the bard in the face, leaving blood and shards of teeth embedded in the chest while the cleric has to burn one of his spells" failure. It got to the point where...

DM: (about to make the roll for the BBEG's skill check) ...Actually, Justin, you haven't rolled higher than a 6 tonight, you roll it. Here you go. (hands him a d20)

Justin: Okay. (rolls, gets a 20)

DM: (brief moment of silence) Ooookay, sucks for you guys...

[NEO|Phyte]

Whenever my dice are at rest, they must always have their highest value facing up. This way, as gravity slowly and gradually deforms them, they'll weigh slightly more on the side opposite their highest value.

It's totally scientific.

Yay for science!

[Tsotha-lanti]

Well it just so happened that while playing warhammer 40k, I had a set of bad luck with my daemon princes that I put down to random chance, typically they would make 5 attacks on the charge, needing 3's to hit, and only 2 would hit. Therefore, in the next three games, I actually kept a log of their combat performance, and in each game, over half of their attacks missed. I got new dice, and they seem to work well.

What is actually going on here:
You do not understand statistics and chance.

Tsotha-lanti: Part of a die's "luck" is the tiny imperfections which skew it's completely random rolling in some way. I've got a d10 with a very slight chip in one corner which means that it still flip-flops between the 1-5 size and the 6-10 side when slow rolling. For some gamers, that d10 would be "bad luck", consistently bringing them to the lower side. Others might discover it to be "good luck", bringing them to the higher side regularly. The chip is nigh-unnoticeable, but when the d10 is rolling slow enough to just be lazily slipping from one plane to another, it does that little flip no fail every time a 7 or a 4 comes up.

By your own admission, this effect is miniscule. This means it cannot be determined intuitively, especially when the errors and biases of logic and perception (see my previous post) have a far greater effect.

You need to record some thousands of repetitions to get a high enough confidence interval for the results to be useful. This is not something that can be done intuitively, or over "three games."

Anyway, no, in case it's not obvious I don't believe in luck and I think the notion is actually harmful.

All superstition is, on some level. At the very best, it's just entirely unnecessary.

Most of the time I think the 'lucky/unlucky dice' thing is cute, but on rare occasions it gets on my nerves. There's one guy in our group who keeps complaining about his luck IN A VERY LOUD VOICE, and even will throw his dice if he's upset.

At yesterday's session he was so angry about his damage result for a 5d6 Fireball that he threw a couple of the dice across the table and scattered the minis. The result? 13 on 5d6.

My probability skills aren't good enough to calculate the standard deviation of 5d6 off the top of my head, but I do know that getting outraged at a result of 13 is not reasonable.

Case in point. The average of 5d6 is 17.5, the standard deviation is something like 3.82, so 13 is within 1.17 SDs, which is quite probable (can't be assed to actually do the functions, it's something like 10-15%).

Not that getting outraged at any dice result is reasonable.


Personally, I find a facility with statistics to be something of an advantage in RPGs - especially in ones with more "complex" resolution systems, like Shadowrun. It's like gambling - if you know your odds, you know when to go all in, when to pass, and so on.

Everyone can imagine who does better - the gambler relying on luck, or the gambler relying on statistics.

[Return of Lanky]

Not that getting outraged at any dice result is reasonable.

I once nailed a PC with all four hits from a Meteor Swarm, dealing a total of 32d6 damage to him, resulting in a grand total of 41 damage. Outrage was called for there, I think.

[kieza]

My probability skills aren't good enough to calculate the standard deviation of 5d6 off the top of my head, but I do know that getting outraged at a result of 13 is not reasonable.

- Saph

The population standard deviation of 5d6 is 3.82, if my Excel skills are up to par. Since we have a known population stdev and mean (17.5), we can use the z-distribution to determine that 95% of 5d6 rolls will be between 10 and 25. However, the probability of rolling a 13 or lower result is about 12%. Whether that chance is low enough to get upset about, only he can decide.

Yes, I was bored. Good thing I had my stats book out!

[Mando Knight]

My red d20 seems to roll high only for me... I've gotten two pairs of consecutive 20s with it within three games of each other, and I think that the die's average has been over 11 so far...

Except when someone else is rolling. I don't think any of my siblings have landed 20s with my d20 ever, and their average is much lower.

Also on the topic of luck, I got one box of Against the Giants minis, and I got both a Fire Giant Raider and an Elder Red Dragon... and both are rare minis.

[BizzaroStormy]

My groups luck doesnt come from which dice we roll, but how we roll them. 80% of the time, if I slap a certain other player in the face with my character sheets prior to rolling, I'll usually roll a 15-20 on a d20. Ill also get roughly the same results using other dice (8-10 on d10, 5 or 6 on d6, ect.) However hitting any other player, or rolling for someone else tends to curse your roll for the rest of the session. Which in our group are typically 6-8 hours.