Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

[AvatarVecna]

See when I said I think AV self resolves by network means didn't mean AV self votes and tries to vote themselves off today

On the other hand this is the kinda thing I expect

From both alignments

Always gotta start my own wagon grumble grumble grumble you lazy bastards

[Valmark]

I'd prefer the information I've provided to the forming network to be more fully trusted, so AvatarVecna.

Now I'm pretty confused. What was the reason to vote me in the first place? If you can say that, at least.

[AvatarVecna]

Now I'm pretty confused. What was the reason to vote me in the first place? If you can say that, at least.

Information voting. I'd like to make more sense of your actions these days (and maybe get a better read on the people who've voted you both days), and I didn't particularly want to lynch Apogee or Xihirli or myself at that point. But if the strength of the network is hindered by not knowing how much they can trust my info, then maybe it's for the best if I die today.

I'll be giving Cao all my chats. To those of you who haven't claimed to me for lack of trust, feel free to claim in those chats after I've died and you realize how foolish you were for thinking I could possibly be a traitor.

[Valmark]

Information voting. I'd like to make more sense of your actions these days (and maybe get a better read on the people who've voted you both days), and I didn't particularly want to lynch Apogee or Xihirli or myself at that point. But if the strength of the network is hindered by not knowing how much they can trust my info, then maybe it's for the best if I die today.

I'll be giving Cao all my chats. To those of you who haven't claimed to me for lack of trust, feel free to claim in those chats after I've died and you realize how foolish you were for thinking I could possibly be a traitor.

Or claim to Caoimhin directly. Which is more trustworthy. Just saying!

[AvatarVecna]

Or claim to Caoimhin directly. Which is more trustworthy. Just saying!

That's also a fair point. :)

[Xihirli]

Either this is a bluff or Av's Flip ends the game.
Either way AvatarVecna.

[Helgraf]

Sure. Let's do this. AvatarVecna

[Elenna]

IDK, I'm not really seeing how AV's death helps the network, given we have a basically-confirmed townie who isn't AV? If there's any information Cao's getting second-hand from AV that isn't trustworthy, Cao can just check with other people. Now if AV has some sort of power that gives information (e.g. seer or watcher), AV's death would confirm whether or not that information can be trusted, but then we'd just be killing a useful power because they *might* be a wolf, which seems counterproductive.
(I'm assuming here that AV is town, because the argument that AV is making is "my town flip will strengthen the network" and that's the argument that I don't understand. Obviously if AV dies and flips wolf that's helpful )

Yeah, I'm leaving my vote where it is for now.

[AvatarVecna]

IDK, I'm not really seeing how AV's death helps the network, given we have a basically-confirmed townie who isn't AV? If there's any information Cao's getting second-hand from AV that isn't trustworthy, Cao can just check with other people. Now if AV has some sort of power that gives information (e.g. seer or watcher), AV's death would confirm whether or not that information can be trusted, but then we'd just be killing a useful power because they *might* be a wolf, which seems counterproductive.
(I'm assuming here that AV is town, because the argument that AV is making is "my town flip will strengthen the network" and that's the argument that I don't understand. Obviously if AV dies and flips wolf that's helpful )

Yeah, I'm leaving my vote where it is for now.

I mean, the network has a lot of information from me at this point. Lotsa QT conversation, my gathered info on claims and guesses and alignments. Leaving me alive leaves it in question how trustworthy that is. Granted, if we lynch somebody else today, that means the seer could scry me tonight and report that info to Cao in the morning. But if we don't really have a better idea of who to lynch instead, may as well save some time and the seer power usage, right?

- - - Updated - - -

Incidentally, I don't like how quiet it's been.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Helgraf ISO

Show

Sure, let's make sure today isn't a waste. Valmark

Null. Early D1 vote trying to make sure the lynch doesn't get missed, nothing weird here.

Yeah, so I've been out of these types of games since ... 5-6 years ago. And I'm used to having erratic hours, so I post when I can to make sure I get a vote in. I have always believed that wasting a lynch favors only the wolves. We need 25% to get that. That's three votes. It's day one; we have amazingly little to work with, which always sucks - but surrendering a day, *especially* with a group this small to begin with is just not a good idea.

And so, I added my vote to ensure *someone* ended up in the rope once end of day arrives, in case we were still locked up and I was unable to get to my desktop when we're closed to actual end of phase.

Feels maybe a bit overly-explainy, but I get the feeling behind it. NAI.

You *cannot* analyze trends without data. To do that, we need votes that do something. If we do not kill someone each day, we *are* handing the game to the wolves' night kill. We *are* failing to put any pressure on them that might make them slip up and give us the opportunity we need. We can't create situations where they have to respond if we do not engage the system - even though it (damn near always) means that some of our own will die. The day one lynch sucks most precisely because we need it to start building usable data and it will mathematically be more likely to kill a not-wolf than a wolf.

To hammer on a point. If we don't lynch our own, the night kills aren't going to provide useful data that will make future day lynches more useful. We need to see things like how people chose to react to the day 1; then look at day two. Ideally, after a few days the seer role will have managed to contact someone they can trust and start up a network, but the game can still be won without their input - it just makes networking more difficult since you don;t have quick verification.

Now, all this said? Am I saying Vallmark is an ideal choice for day one? No - we will have no idea on day one whom the ideal choice is unless someone does something incredibly stupid like wolfclaim. But someone *does* have to go up.

This feels a tiny bit scummier as part of that same "overexplaining", but it's still pretty null. I highlighted one part for a slight correction that I wish I'd done at the time, given how the game as gone. You're right, you can't analyze trends without data, but votes are only part of that. Posts and arguments are also part of that, and there's so many people who are costing right now. And while it's fine enough for a D1 vote, lynching the quiet people isn't necessarily the answer either.

AvatarVecna also sent me one of these things to the effect of "Hello Paladin, I'm the White Mage."

Now whether they're a villager or a wolf, denying or aggreeing with their bait gives them data. It may be false data, but false data can be useful when it contradicts other data that comes up later.

It could be clever, but it can also put a big old bullseye on oneself.

NAI, although it shows they're thinking about these kinds of things. It's good to have a "newcomer" who's got some experience and can see the shape of things.

I'm willing to give Val a pass since we have other options that can still result in a lynch. And I do find the Wombat wagon suspicious. So Xihirli.

NAI, this was still before Xihirli claimed White Mage.

I leave my machine on 24/7, barring blackouts and the like. I also tend to leave my tabs open overnight so I can pick things up in the morning (or, in the case of today, post-work). I currently have 14 tabs open counting the one I'm using to post this reply. So yeah, it's incredibly likely you saw me as online during that period.

My biggest suspicion was that that bandwagon was meant to save Xihirli by the wold team - so I stuck to my position. With the counterwagon finding a wolf/scum that seems significantly less likely now given the small playerbase of this game. Resultingly I'm currently voting Apogee1.

Overexplaining, but in their defense I kinda provoked it so I could see the shape of reaction from the three people my accusation applied to. NAI.

Yeah well, the biggest part is because it was the only lynch at that time that would have enough votes to get my neck out of the noose.

I have no problem going with another wagon that meets those qualifications that isn't Xil because based on the results of that day's lynch, I don't suspect Xil anymore.

If people think going after Valmark is a better alternate, I'm willing to shift off Apo and onto that, but ultimately right now I'm looking after my own neck, and place or maintain my point accordingly.

As per prior post Valmark to save my own neck.

Sure. Let's do this. AvatarVecna

...three posts, one message.

...yeah gonna rewind the tape a bit, gotta get some good juxtaposition...

And I'm used to having erratic hours, so I post when I can to make sure I get a vote in.

You *cannot* analyze trends without data. To do that, we need votes that do something.

Slight scum lean. It's hardly a sure thing, and the game's barely started, but there's a lot of talk about the importance of casting votes, and not a lot about analyzing arguments or coordinating with locktowns. Hours are erratic, sure okay not everybody can just live on the forum, but then if time's limited you wanna make sure your actions help the game move forward. Maybe get your thoughts out there about this person's actions or that person's arguments or I don't like that wagon so much...and instead there's just a lot of "I don't have anything to say except that I don't want to die". Maybe Helgraf's just one of those quiet older players like kgato, but gut feeling: this is a wolf trying to avoid getting lynched by whatever means they can, but also keeping quiet so that if they do get lynched, it gives as little info as possible.

[Xihirli]

You don't have a claim from Helgraaf, but I do. For that reason I have a slight town-lean. But it's not a claim that a Traitor couldn't make.

[The Outsider]

So, I agree that it's been far too quiet recently. In the interest of making things less quiet, I'm going to weigh in.
I don't like the idea of lynching AV just to prove that their info is trustworthy. I see the logic behind it, but I think it just wastes a day and eliminates what I suspect to be a Town member. I'd much rather have a lynch that reveals new information instead of solidifying previously known information. I'm leaving my vote on Helgraff, and I'm going to actively encourage people not to vote AV.

With my luck, AV is a Wolf and this is all a massive 500-IQ bluff. But I highly doubt that's the case.

EDIT: You know who we haven't heard much from? Unavenger. I'm not going to shift my vote, but I'd really like to hear them give an opinion on current happenings.

[Xihirli]

As we get closer and closer to end-of-day, my confidence in AV being town grows. My guy’s telling me that wolves are hiding behind the quiet, and I wouldn’t mind poking quiet people until they talk.

[Helgraf]

Yeah, I'm a bit paranoid of the possibility that your networking has been a beautiful wolf power play, which is why I haven't revealed to you - or to your comrade Cao. Call it extreme paranoia, if you like. While wolves hitting themselves is rare in a small count game, wolves hitting, say, a ninja whom they know can survive the hit is a helluva way to get said ninja in as trusted.

But frankly, if you're above board (which would be proven rather sharply by the lynch result) that provides Cao's credibility a rather steep boost.
I do trust Xihirli at this point, fwiw.

:starts reviewing from day 1:
Okay, I'll post a big thing in a bit, but one thing that makes my head itch about day 1.
Kinro.

Withholds their vote "waiting for more information" - on Day 1, when it's hardest to actually get solid information.
Disputes the usefulness of what he calls a "random lynch

But... most people are not wolves. Voting at random will most likely help the wolves. Especially since they know who they are and can make even more sure that it's not a wolf who gets voted in. But not voting give us one more night to gather some sort of information to make a decent decision.

Xihirli counters (and here I'm paraphrasing) that yes, that's what we want to do. We want to get them to shift votes and make it easier to pick them off by their choices.

Kinro then comes back with this:

So, you're saying that if Valmark gets killed and was not a wolf, one one the people who voted for him is definitely a wolf? Because if that's not true, if it's perfectly reasonable for 4 non-wolves to just kill someone at random, it sounds a lot like we're putting ourselves one step closer to failure in exchange for no new information.

That first comment is a misleading question, set up so he can then answer it to show that it's a poor idea.

Kinro then claims Blue Mage, which frankly feels like an attempt to give themself more credibility after the prior discussion went sideways. But Blue Mage is no guarantee of villager status - so even if that fact is true, it does nothing to actually indicate trustworthiness.

Then this:

If the White Mage is town and goes along with me, then we will form a pretty powerful block, one member of which may well still be hidden and attract wolves. And I can still be used to do things like confirm roles. Certainly, if anyone else said they are a Blue Mage, one of us would be lying and, therefore a wolf. And if I was a wolf, then it would be amazingly suspicious if the White Mage was to die after healing me. That's why I asked for the reveal to be tomorrow. Please don't tell me today, White Mage!

So, yeah, I'm I see a lot of positives, so I'm taking that bet, a strong alliance to help carry us through this.

And, of course, since the possibiltiy he might be wolfish is mentioned (by Elenna), there's a denial that of course they couldn't actually take out the White Mage (and implied, therefore they cannot be a wolf - which is flawed logic).

Quote here:

If I was a wolf, knowing who the White Mage is on turn 2 doesn't help me, because I now couldn't let them die anyway. And, really, what are the chances of White Mage actually hitting the wolf's target at random?

Also, there's the bit where I don't have to actually say whether I was healed or not. No idea if White Mage actually likes my idea.

Really, nothing said here actually means that blue mage is villager aligned. Frankly, the whole line, in retrospect feels fishy to me.

After that, things get messy, Xihirli claims white mage, wOMBAT gets the diversion wagon for inactivity, turns out to be guild/dragoon. Night sees Johnny Patches get nailed (presumably by black mage based on the description, but that's not actually verified data) and the ninja's 1-Up saves them from the (again presumed not proven) night kill We don't hear very much at all from Kinro after that. Possible wolf laying low.

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, I'm a bit paranoid of the possibility that your networking has been a beautiful wolf power play, which is why I haven't revealed to you - or to your comrade Cao. Call it extreme paranoia, if you like. While wolves hitting themselves is rare in a small count game, wolves hitting, say, a ninja whom they know can survive the hit is a helluva way to get said ninja in as trusted.

But frankly, if you're above board (which would be proven rather sharply by the lynch result) that provides Cao's credibility a rather steep boost.
I do trust Xihirli at this point, fwiw.

:starts reviewing from day 1:
Okay, I'll post a big thing in a bit, but one thing that makes my head itch about day 1.
Kinro.

Withholds their vote "waiting for more information" - on Day 1, when it's hardest to actually get solid information.
Disputes the usefulness of what he calls a "random lynch


Xihirli counters (and here I'm paraphrasing) that yes, that's what we want to do. We want to get them to shift votes and make it easier to pick them off by their choices.

Kinro then comes back with this:



That first comment is a misleading question, set up so he can then answer it to show that it's a poor idea.

Kinro then claims Blue Mage, which frankly feels like an attempt to give themself more credibility after the prior discussion went sideways. But Blue Mage is no guarantee of villager status - so even if that fact is true, it does nothing to actually indicate trustworthiness.

Then this:


And, of course, since the possibiltiy he might be wolfish is mentioned (by Elenna), there's a denial that of course they couldn't actually take out the White Mage (and implied, therefore they cannot be a wolf - which is flawed logic).

Quote here:


Really, nothing said here actually means that blue mage is villager aligned. Frankly, the whole line, in retrospect feels fishy to me.

After that, things get messy, Xihirli claims white mage, wOMBAT gets the diversion wagon for inactivity, turns out to be guild/dragoon. Night sees Johnny Patches get nailed (presumably by black mage based on the description, but that's not actually verified data) and the ninja's 1-Up saves them from the (again presumed not proven) night kill We don't hear very much at all from Kinro after that. Possible wolf laying low.

If it helps people judge Kinro, they were one of the first to claim to me, and the only person to take my claim seriously at all. As it happens, I claimed White Mage to them in that QT, and they were like "oh cool, White Mage + Blue Mage is a powerful combo, lets do this" and then I had to be the buzzkill like "ah, sorry dude I was kinda lying, still wanna work together tho". A bit after that, they made the public claim of "im blue mage; white mage, if you're out there, bane me tonight".

Kinro's new to our little corner of the forum, and everything I've just described is about what I expected from them based on that. The alternative if that they're just really good at playing the part - that, or they have a fantastic coach in their scumbuddy. But I'm leaning pretty strong town on them at this point...even if I kinda understand why others might not be so trusting.

I'm not really sure why you trust Xihirli tho.

[Xihirli]

Trusting Xihirli is a good philosophy for life.

[Kinro]

Can wolves hit themselves? I was generally assuming that they can't.

I'm still not a fan of the random lynching on first day. Though, in this case, I'll admit that getting rid of the two inactives ended up being in our favour.

Like AV said, the idea of white mage + blue mage seemed very powerful to me when he talked to me. After thinking about it, I realized that I could still make it happen without being contacted first.

I trust Xihirli because, just at random, there's a high chance they're Guild. If they are, then we basically can't lose. It's just good odds.

My discussion with Elenna was not about whether I was a wolf. I freely admit that it would be hard for me to prove this either way. They were worried that my proposal might be because I wanted to get the White Mage's identity. I was explaining how that knowledge would be useless in those circumstances. Remember, we didn't know the White Mage's identity yet at the time.

I'll note, though that, if both me and Xihirli are Guild, it would then become the wolves' highest priority to get one of us lynched.

I did say earlier that I would be supporting Cao and still am. I don't have any other information to add or have any reason to revise my choice.

[Valmark]

I trust Xihirli because, just at random, there's a high chance they're Guild. If they are, then we basically can't lose. It's just good odds.

As said before, everybody has the same chance of being Traitor or Guild I should point out. Trusting her because the combo would be strong could be pretty troublesome.

[AvatarVecna]

As said before, everybody has the same chance of being Traitor or Guild I should point out. Trusting her because the combo would be strong could be pretty troublesome.

During set-up I was kinda morbidly hoping to be scumteam, and have the three scumroles be white mage, blue mage, and dragoon. N1, White targets blue, dragoon leaps. N2, white and blue target each other, dragoon leaps. Hope the vig targeted the white mage N1 or they'll never kill scum unless the lynch gets one first!

Mind you, not that there's really any combination that wouldn't be just awful. Scholar/Hunter/Beast Master scumteam would village firing blind. Black Mage/Death Knight/Freelancer (who takes over the Black Mage or Death Knight's job when they die) will absolutely shred any opposition.

About the only role that's less useful to scumteam is Paladin (the martyr), but even that could be used to cast suspicion under the right circumstances.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll also say: I'm fine dying cuz how untrustworthy I am to people is what's holding back the network, but also I don't really have an idea of who to kill instead. I'm townreading three of the quiet, and even the people I'm scumreading it's admittedly not based on that much. If somebody puts together a decent argument, or has some counterclaim to throw down, or has a spicy QT to share, I'd love something to obsessively overthink for the last 12 hours of my game.

[Kinro]

As said before, everybody has the same chance of being Traitor or Guild I should point out. Trusting her because the combo would be strong could be pretty troublesome.

Yeah, but from my perspective, there's a 75% chance of straight up winning. And the 3 investigative roles are still going around doing their things, so there still would be a chance of fixing the problem.

Also, they could have just not accepted my proposal. It would have been easy, since there was opposition enough. So there's that.

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, in my experience, the baner and the backup baner outing themselves D1 is called "winning".

[CaoimhinTheCape]

IDK, I'm not really seeing how AV's death helps the network, given we have a basically-confirmed townie who isn't AV? If there's any information Cao's getting second-hand from AV that isn't trustworthy, Cao can just check with other people. Now if AV has some sort of power that gives information (e.g. seer or watcher), AV's death would confirm whether or not that information can be trusted, but then we'd just be killing a useful power because they *might* be a wolf, which seems counterproductive.

I'm agreeing with this point right now. While knowing someone's alignment will be helpful, I don't see how it verifies the network any more. I've had a few people verify what AV has told me on their own and I imagine if I end up with any contradictions we could pick between AV and whoever said something different. If it makes that much of a difference to the group we can lynch AV, I'd just rather not lynch someone I have a town read on.

---

I just got online tonight, so I'm trying to catch up on everything. While I'm voting Helgraf now I honestly still don't have a strong wolf read on anyone. Going through chats in a bit, hoping to get some clarity there.

---

Vote Count (3 minimum to lynch)

Helgraf (5): Valmark, Apogee1, CaoimhintheCape, The Outsider, Kinro
Apogee1 (1): JeenLeen
Valmark (1): Elenna
AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Helgraf

Not Voting (0)
No Posts (1): Unavenger

[Xihirli]

I honestly don’t know if that’s sarcasm.

@AV.

[AvatarVecna]

I honestly don’t know if that’s sarcasm.

@AV.

Depends on what team I'm on, doesn't it?

[JeenLeen]

I'm in agreement with others that AV's death wouldn't yield a lot of information. I know the wagon on her got started after I speculated about if she should be voted for, but in that very post I also stated her death wasn't likely to be that informative, especially as we have a solid network by Cao. So I find folk jumping on that suspicious. Basically, we don't need AV to be verified since we have Cao verified (barring very risky wolf self-targeting N1).

I have some minor suspicions on Apogee or Valmark, but they are minor and not based on much. I've voted for them mostly because I don't think we've had any better options, and I think their deaths will illuminate hidden (wolf) voting motivations D1 and early D2.

However, now I am fairly persuaded by AV's take on Helgraf, and since Helgraf and Xi are working together, it might yield light on Xi. Xihirli seems the most "potential wolf" of us all, and a bad, bad spot for us if she is a wolf. (The seer being wolf is probably the only worse thing. Well, that or Cao, but, again, highly doubt he's wolf.) I do have a strong Town read on Kinro, but I fear that wolf!Xi might be playing Town to build trust only to betray us all soon.
If Helgraf flips wolf, we can pretty much trust AV as Town. Also more reason to distrust Xi, but hopefully the seer can look into that for us.
If Helgraf flips town, then more evidence against AV. She could be verified violently by the Black Mage or D3's lynch, or the seer could look into it for us.

Trusting Xihirli is a good philosophy for life.

I've found it's safe to trust her statements, but believing her statements doesn't usually work well with living
...that sounded wittier in my head. Another try?
I've found it's safe to trust Xihirli to try to kill.

[Elenna]

I mean, the network has a lot of information from me at this point. Lotsa QT conversation, my gathered info on claims and guesses and alignments. Leaving me alive leaves it in question how trustworthy that is. Granted, if we lynch somebody else today, that means the seer could scry me tonight and report that info to Cao in the morning. But if we don't really have a better idea of who to lynch instead, may as well save some time and the seer power usage, right?

Presumably Cao has links to the QT conversations, and anyone who feels comfortable claiming to you should be even more comfortable claiming to Cao, who is a lot more likely to be town. And your guesses, deductions, etc aren't guaranteed to be accurate even if you are town - the network will still have to decide whether they seem plausible, and they might as well do that while you're alive. Similarly, I don't think you necessarily need to be the scry target tonight, although I'll leave that to the network.

I can see that there might be an advantage in being able to review discussions through the lens of "AV was definitely not trying to deceive us", but I don't think it's worth wasting a lynch on you when it doesn't seem like anyone is particularly suspicious of you.

Of course, the 500-IQ play would be to self-vote as wolf in the hopes that someone would make this exact argument and then the whole thing would end up making you look way more townie, in which case I guess I just played into wolf-you's hands?

Yeah, I'm a bit paranoid of the possibility that your networking has been a beautiful wolf power play, which is why I haven't revealed to you - or to your comrade Cao. Call it extreme paranoia, if you like. While wolves hitting themselves is rare in a small count game, wolves hitting, say, a ninja whom they know can survive the hit is a helluva way to get said ninja in as trusted.

But frankly, if you're above board (which would be proven rather sharply by the lynch result) that provides Cao's credibility a rather steep boost.
I do trust Xihirli at this point, fwiw.

Kinda weirded out by the fact that you trust Xi but not Cao? Like, okay, I could *maybe* see wolves doing some big power play where they shoot their own ninja, but that seems a lot less likely than a wolf White Mage going along with Kinro's plan for one night to score townie points. What has Xihirli done that makes you trust her?

Also, the reason people trust Cao isn't related at all to AV, so I'm not sure why AV flipping town would make you trust Cao more?

<a bunch of stuff about Kinro's D1 posts>

I agree that Kinro's logic (both on the "don't lynch D1" and the "white mage should claim to me" fronts) was flawed, but the first one especially is exactly what I'd expect from a new player. We've seen the argument of "we shouldn't lynch D1 because it's more likely to hit town" several times in the last few games from new players, so I don't think flawed logic there is alignment indicative.
The blue mage/white mage plan... eh. It would probably be a decent plan if blue mage is town, so I could see town!Kinro, who obviously knows their own alignment, proposing it without realizing that it looked bad from the perspective of people who don't know their alignment. On the other hand I could believe that it was fishing... IDK, Kinro's posts just give me a genuine-newbie-town gut feeling.

Can wolves hit themselves? I was generally assuming that they can't.

I'm still not a fan of the random lynching on first day. Though, in this case, I'll admit that getting rid of the two inactives ended up being in our favour.

Like AV said, the idea of white mage + blue mage seemed very powerful to me when he talked to me. After thinking about it, I realized that I could still make it happen without being contacted first.

I trust Xihirli because, just at random, there's a high chance they're Guild. If they are, then we basically can't lose. It's just good odds.

My discussion with Elenna was not about whether I was a wolf. I freely admit that it would be hard for me to prove this either way. They were worried that my proposal might be because I wanted to get the White Mage's identity. I was explaining how that knowledge would be useless in those circumstances. Remember, we didn't know the White Mage's identity yet at the time.

I'll note, though that, if both me and Xihirli are Guild, it would then become the wolves' highest priority to get one of us lynched.

I did say earlier that I would be supporting Cao and still am. I don't have any other information to add or have any reason to revise my choice.

I'll agree that if wolf-you learned the White Mage's identity, it would probably be too suspicious for wolves to kill them as long as you were expected to be baning them. That's a good point that I hadn't initially thought of.
But there would still be some options opened up to you. For example, other wolves could try to start a wagon on the White Mage, forcing them to either reveal themselves or be lynched. Plus, if you know the White Mage is baning you, then you're able to kill any other high-value targets with no worries - and if they stop baning you for that reason, you have an excuse to stop baning them in return, and then they can die.

Trusting Xihirli is a good philosophy for life.

That is, you can trust her to be completely insane, to drive you completely insane and probably to backstab you.

I'd still be happy with a Valmark vote for information, but I think I'll switch my vote to Helgraf for all the reasons Valmark, AV, and I said earlier today. Also because the Valmark vote is obviously not going to take off at this point.
(That being said, both days there's been people voting Valmark around the middle of the day and by EOD there's basically no votes on them, which seems sketchy.)

- - - Updated - - -

Also, I'm probably not going to be able to post again this day, unless something I want to respond to comes up in the next hour or so.

[Helgraf]

Well with eight hours left on the timer and seven of you voting for me, I guess my only hope is a CFD.

You're trying to lynch the scholar.

I trust Xihrli because I've confirmed she's not a traitor.

I planned on scrying AvatarVecna tonight, but if they proved himself by lynch, then I can scry another target.

Of course, if I'm not lynched, I'm now prime wolf bait, so this basically sucks for me all around.

- - - Updated - - -

And now that I've put the death mark on myself, kindly at least do me the favor of winning this one for the guild?

[Kinro]

Hmm confirming White Mage would be nice, but I think we might as well let them swim a bit longer. If they get wolfed, that immediately confirms the white mage. If not, we can still lynch them in a day or two.

Switching to the non-posting Unavenger.

[Xihirli]

I trust Xihrli because I've confirmed he's not a traitor.

I planned on scrying AvatarVecna tonight, but if he proved himself by lynch, then I can scry another target.

I am a lady. And I believe AvatarVecna is a genderless golem composed of either the hand or eye of Vecna, though I've never asked.

[AvatarVecna]

JeenLeen has publicly and privately pushed me to do a mass-reveal of my information at separate points, and various posts by them (again, privately and publicly) seem to be trying to get a feel for how I'm feeling on things in ways that make me a bit suspicious. Last night, when I attempted to use my power on JeenLeen, I was unable to do so - which revealed to me that JeenLeen was the Freelancer copying the Dragoon.

Despite being online at the time, there was a significant delay in JeenLeen responding to my "I know what you did last night" remark, and it was only after I publicly mentioned I'd identified the Freelancer that JeenLeen talked with me again. A good deal of the digging for info has been since then. It is, admittedly, still kinda weak justification for a vote, but if we're trusting Helgraf to be a town seer instead of a wolf seer, that's the place I'd put votes next. Mind you, I'm not moving my vote currently. I might if it looks like a JeenLeen wagon is happening, or maybe a Xihirli wagon, but beyond that I'm fine where I am.

[Helgraf]

JeenLeen has publicly and privately pushed me to do a mass-reveal of my information at separate points, and various posts by them (again, privately and publicly) seem to be trying to get a feel for how I'm feeling on things in ways that make me a bit suspicious. Last night, when I attempted to use my power on JeenLeen, I was unable to do so - which revealed to me that JeenLeen was the Freelancer copying the Dragoon.

Despite being online at the time, there was a significant delay in JeenLeen responding to my "I know what you did last night" remark, and it was only after I publicly mentioned I'd identified the Freelancer that JeenLeen talked with me again. A good deal of the digging for info has been since then. It is, admittedly, still kinda weak justification for a vote, but if we're trusting Helgraf to be a town seer instead of a wolf seer, that's the place I'd put votes next. Mind you, I'm not moving my vote currently. I might if it looks like a JeenLeen wagon is happening, or maybe a Xihirli wagon, but beyond that I'm fine where I am.

So it was a bluff.

Nice playing with you, town.