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Thread: Crazier Idea Mafia
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2020-11-04, 01:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Crazier Idea Mafia
The game will start when all players have claimed their role or at 18:00 GMT 06/11/2020, whichever comes sooner.
AvatarVecna, Town Doctor, clawed to death night 3.
Caerulea, Town Watcher, hanged day 1.
Valmark, Werewolf Strongman, struck by lightning day 5.
The Outsider, Town Innocent Child, clawed to death night 4.
PartyOfRogues, Werewolf Roleblocker, hanged day 4.
gac3, Werewolf Universal Backup, blasted night 2
Xihirli, Werewolf Roleblocker, blasted night 3.
Elenna, Alien Researcher, clawed to death night 1.
Captain Cap, Town Doctor, SURVIVED!
rogue_alchemist, Alien Researcher, gave up night 5.
Apogee1, Serial Killer Spy, hanged day 2.
JeenLeen, Town Roleblocker, clawed to death night 2.
CaomhinTheCape, Town Universal Backup turned Town Watcher, SURVIVED!
ZelphasAlien Jack of All Trades, hanged day 3.
plentyAlien Vigilante, hanged day 5Last edited by Unavenger; 2020-11-23 at 08:16 PM.
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2020-11-04, 09:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
AvatarVecna discarded Town Jack of All Trades
Caerulea discarded Town Protective
Valmark discarded Mafia Innocent-Looking
The Outsider discarded Town Roleblocking
PartyOfRogues discarded Town Jack of All Trades
gac3 discarded Town Tracking
Xihirli discarded Town Universal Backup
Elenna discarded Town Tracking
Captain Cap discarded Mafia Killing
rogue_alchemist discarded Town Jack of All Trades
Apogee1 discarded Town Universal Backup
JeenLeen discarded Mafia Innocent-Looking
CaomhinTheCape discarded Town Killing
Zelphas discarded Town Investigative
plenty discarded Town Protective
DAY 1 START
To give myself a greater chance of actually being able to call the day on time (because it's around 2am my time and it's not normal for me to be up this late), and also to make up for starting delays, I'll give you all an extra-long day 1. Day 1 ends at 18:00 GMT 07/11/2020.
The player with the most votes will die. In case of a tie, whoever reached the most votes first will die.
You may vote for NO LYNCH. NO LYNCH works the same way as a vote for a player when resolving ties.
Links to group chats are in your QuickTopics!Last edited by Unavenger; 2020-11-04 at 09:29 PM.
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2020-11-04, 09:41 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Hmm there's a worrying lack of werewolf or alien discards compared to the number of mafia discards. We should probably focus on eliminating werewolves and aliens before mafia - not that it's really possible to do anything about that now, but something to keep in mind later in the game.
Vague pondering - if someone discards a non-town card, that instinctively seems like it should mean they're more likely to be town. But based on the previous game, the vast majority of people will pick non-town factions. So people probably won't be townies unless they drew three town cards, which implies they would have discarded town. So maybe people who discarded non-town are more likely to be non-town? Thoughts?
Based on the above I guess I'll randomly pick Captain Cap among the three who discarded non-town. It's definitely not much to go on, but better than a pure random vote I guess?I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2020-11-04, 10:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I like that line of thought, but I don't feel too comfortable starting a wagon just yet. So I'm going to vote
Valmarkfor the moment.
Anyone have thoughts on what Town-aligned discards are more likely to be evil? Is it more sus to have discarded Protective, Killing, Roleblocking, etc?
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2020-11-04, 10:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
- Location
- 62 Miles away from space
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
RNGesus says that Apogee1 is quite suspicious.
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2020-11-04, 11:08 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
It's
CaomhinTheCape. His name is red.Last edited by Xihirli; 2020-11-05 at 05:03 PM.
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2020-11-04, 11:08 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Location
- six feet under
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Last edited by Caerulea; 2020-11-07 at 11:12 AM. Reason: Rewrote reality
Non caerulea sum, Caerulea nomen meum est.
Extended Signature.
I'm not not a humanoid. Come not not be one too.
Answer trivial questions in the OOTS trivia thread!
she/her
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2020-11-04, 11:09 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I dunno. It was pretty spred out last game- meaning that most people picked non-Town regardless of what they discarded. I'm not sure the case of all three Town cards is a decent argument past the initial voting.
For the initial voting though it IS better then no idea.
Mmm good question. From what I understand it's info-gathering roles that are better for Town- but in a game with multiple factions I reckon everybody wants to get more intelligence.
Anyway, you all know it. AvatarVecna.
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2020-11-04, 11:23 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Hmmm... If we learned anything from last time it's that people don't willingly choose town. Throwing away town means nothing because Unavenger said there would be a lot more town roles this time. But throwing away non-town just makes me think you got a second non-town option so I'll got JeenLeen
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I'll be honest, I didn't read other people's comments before I posted. So I see I parroted others.Last edited by gac3; 2020-11-04 at 11:23 PM.
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2020-11-05, 12:26 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I'd agree, but there's a difference between discarding town and discarding Town Killing, I should say.
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2020-11-05, 02:31 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2016
- Location
- UK
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I think that the innocent looking child is probably the most useful to town.
Valmark discarded it.
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2020-11-05, 03:43 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
- Location
- Tuscany, Italy
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I could see an argument for the aliens, but aren't werewolves and mafia basically the same mechanically, just different factions?
I didn't play the last game, but if there's truly a tendency of choosing non-town factions the argument kind of makes sense. I think the conclusions would depend very much on the probability of getting 3 town cards: if it's very low, then almost everyone would have equal opportunity of being non-town, but if it's not small, then players discarding non-town would be statistically more likely to be non-town than players discarding town (given this last set would contain the "sure town" set).
From the recruitment thread:
> You cannot create QuickTopics to talk with other players. You only have your personal QuickTopic and possibly a factional QuickTopic.
> You can only talk in your Mafia, Werewolf or Cult QuickTopic at night.
> You can talk in your Alien QuickTopic at any time.
> You can talk to yourself at any time.
> You can talk in the public thread at any time.
rogue_alchemistis one of those who hasn't spoken yet, moreover I have to keep the tradition going.Last edited by Captain Cap; 2020-11-07 at 12:29 PM.
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2020-11-05, 04:52 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I didn't play the last game, but if there's truly a tendency of choosing non-town factions the argument kind of makes sense. I think the conclusions would depend very much on the probability of getting 3 town cards: if it's very low, then almost everyone would have equal opportunity of being non-town, but if it's not small, then players discarding non-town would be statistically more likely to be non-town than players discarding town (given this last set would contain the "sure town" set).
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2020-11-05, 06:48 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
FOS on Captain Cap for carrying over old grudges!
Having been protective role in the last 3-4 games I've played here, I fully understand wanting to throw it away as a boring role, but it is very important to town winning. Therefore I vote Caerulea, as the other person who did it is a newbie that might not know and we have a tradition of not voting newbs anyways.
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2020-11-05, 09:18 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I believe, in a non-PM game, AV would want to be one of the factions to be able to network and have more fun (that is, I think she'd find being Town a little boring in this game.) Also, she hasn't died D1 for a while. Her discarding a Town card, while meaning nothing in itself, lends credence to this. So
AvatarVecna.
This is creating a 2-vote wagon.
Unavenger said the deck was modified to increase the number of townies. I know some people will lie when answering this, but
1) Did anyone get 3 Town cards?
2) Did anyone get 2 Town and 1 non-Town?
For me, it was Town, Town, and Mafia.
Though, in retrospect, I realize I probably should have made myself Town Innocent Child. For one thing, for the humorous quoting my fakeclaim text from recruitment. Also, I saw in my last game (with Apogee1) how powerful that can be in a non-PM game. But I didn't think of that until it was too late for me to get back online.
Originally Posted by gac3
And, honestly, if I could have been Mafia Innocent-Looking, I would have taken that. But Town Innocent-Looking felt boring, and I didn't like the other Mafia sets and wasn't sure if I wanted the extra work of coordinating with a faction.
Originally Posted by plenty
Noteworthy that Valmark and I discarded the same card, if anyone wants to try to decipher card probabilities.
Valmark, I gave the (admittingly weak and easily-made-up) excuse about why I discarded Innocent-Looking. Why did you?Last edited by JeenLeen; 2020-11-05 at 02:27 PM.
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2020-11-05, 09:20 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Yes, but there were three mafia discards and no werewolf discards, so I figure the werewolf faction is probably larger and therefore a bigger threat. I mean, it's possible that a bunch of people got werewolf cards and took the role off those cards instead of the faction, but it seems more likely that most of the people who got werewolf cards chose to be weeewolves.
Last game Unavenger made sure nobody would get three town cards, so that everyone would have a choice of factions. Unfortunately this resulted in only one person picking town, so they said they would remove that restriction for the next game. Granted,that doesn't necessarily mean it's common to get three town cards, we basically have no way of knowing how common it might be without knowing the number of cards of each faction.I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2020-11-05, 09:20 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Also, I see nobody discarded Survivor or Serial Killer. That doesn't necessarily mean they are in the game -- if I were a "wolf" faction, I'd want to keep it secret from the others that the Serial Killer/Survivor is NOT in the game so as to have a good fakeclaim (survivor) and source of making others nervous (serial killer). But it makes it certainly possible they're not in the game.
Though I guess we will (unless baners do a lucky job) find out if the Serial Killer exists once Night 1 resolves.
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2020-11-05, 09:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
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2020-11-05, 09:27 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Guessing Faction Affinity Based on Card Discards
I also reckon that anyone who discarded a Killing card is likely not the Survivor. That ability to end the game faster makes it a lot more likely Survivor will win.
Likely also not Alien, as getting a night-kill (NK) in a non-NK 'wolf' faction is extremely useful.
Not sure about other factions. Strongman is useful, but it's circumstantial, so a mafia/werewolf/serial killer may or may not want it. If I were Serial Killer, I'd probably want more utility as opposed to the ability to make my kill 'strong'. But with Aliens around and how highjacking of the kill happened last game, they might want a Strongman power.
A Survivor or Serial Killer would definitely be okay dropping Protective, since they are already immune to NKs and don't have innate allies to protect. Universal Backup is also trash for them, as there's nobody for them to back-up.
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2020-11-05, 09:29 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
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2020-11-05, 09:42 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Guys. Guys.
Caoimhin's name is red.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2020-11-05, 09:54 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Because I don't find it useful as Town. Saving yourself from the lynch while making yourself confirmed Town is normally useful, but in a game with three 'evil' factions that can bypass protections (well, only two of those)? It's utility is greatly diminished IMO. I'd rather pick it as non-Town to fool scries (and even then, it becomes 'what's the change of him belonging to 1/2 of the game's factions'?).
Plus, we don't have private QTs and that further decreases the value of a confirmed Townie in a 4-sided game.
Not sure about the Aliens honestly- a Mindslaver would be far more useful then the killing one.
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2020-11-05, 10:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
People could have taken the back half of a werewolf or alien card (so we wouldn't see it) but I'd imagine they wouldn't be as popular.
As Val pointed out, there's not much indication of what someone did pick based on their discard (at least from last game). I don't think your reason for voting is fool-proof but I don't hate it or anything.
I don't think it's necessarily an indicator. Someone who discarded Protective may have felt they would rather Investigate, since townies don't know who to protect anyway. Or they could be an evil faction and discarded Protective so that they can have a stronger kill.
They are mechanically the same, but last game we had an insane number of Wolves (5 or 6?) versus a smaller number of Mafia (3 or so?). We all need to make sure one faction doesn't hold onto too many people or they'll win by default.
The AV vote... I kinda actually agree with the logic? I'd feel a little bad voting AV at this point but AV does seem the type to want a more unique faction than town (if she could help it).
I got 2 Town cards and 1 Mafia card. Discarded the Town Killing.
Last game, everyone picked a non-town alignment aside from one person (hi).
Hi.
That is a good point, this game we can assume at least 2 townspeople in the game. Still, we don't know how many people will have defaulted to Town by getting three cards.
That is very much true. Someone could have taken Universal Backup knowing they were the only member of the faction (SK or Survivor) or assuming they would be the only member of their faction. They would get the ability they discarded, but look like they don't have the role.
Huh. Your quote doesn't have my name in red. It's weird, but I'm guessing yours will show up in red, Xihirli.
Vote Count:
Captain Cap (1): Elenna
Valmark (1): The Outsider
Apogee1 (1): PartyOfRogues
CaomhinTheCape (1): Xihirli
The Outsider (1): Caerulea
AvatarVecna (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
JeenLeen (1): gac3
Valmark (1): plenty
rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
Caerulea (1): rogue_alchemist
Xihirli (1): CaomhinTheCape
Not voting: AvatarVecna, Apogee1, Zelphas
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2020-11-05, 10:27 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-11-05, 10:30 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Makes sense. Town Innocent is rather powerful (or at least forces a NK away from more valuable targets) when it's Town vs. Mafia, but not as much when its Town vs Mafia vs Werewolf vs Alien.
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I buy that, and I can see not wanting to put a third vote on a wagon so early. But the "kinda actually agree" but voting elsewhere looks a touch suspicious. Just noting this to file it away for "maybe AV and Cao are on the same faction."
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2020-11-05, 10:35 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Vote Count:
Captain Cap (1): Elenna
Valmark (2): The Outsider, plenty
Apogee1 (1): PartyOfRogues
CaomhinTheCape (1): Xihirli
The Outsider (1): Caerulea
AvatarVecna (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
JeenLeen (1): gac3
rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
Caerulea (1): rogue_alchemist
Xihirli (1): CaomhinTheCape
Not voting: AvatarVecna, Apogee1, Zelphas
There we go. Fixed.
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2020-11-05, 10:49 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
No, I mean when we call an emergency meeting, your name is red.
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I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2020-11-05, 11:38 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Originally Posted by Elenna
Originally Posted by JeenLeen
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2020-11-05, 11:49 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
- Gender
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2020-11-05, 11:50 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I mean, that's fair. There's really nothing I can say to prove we aren't, other than we are likely not on the same side (unless AV picked Town also). If there isn't any better reason for a vote by the end of the day, I'm comfortable voting AV.
I see what you're saying - this definitely could read as one faction looking to shift blame. I'll keep it in mind, not sure I'm ready to call Elenna Mafia (or less likely Alien) though.
Regardless of Elenna's faction it still is a good point that she makes: that we don't have to just get rid of the three factions, but make that any one of them isn't too powerful to win the game outright.