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Thread: Craziest Idea Mafia
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2021-07-05, 12:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Craziest Idea Mafia
Current Phase: END
The Town and the Survivor have won the game!
Players Alive
JeenLeen, Survivor Vigilante.
EmmyNecromancer, Town Jack of All Trades.
Players Dead
flat_footed, Alien Overseer, executed Day 1.
AvatarVecna, Mafia Strongman, shot with a blaster Night 1.
CaoimhinTheCape, Town Seer, clawed to death Night 1.
gac3, Alien Jack of All Trades, stabbed with a knife Night 1.
Captain Cap, Werewolf Jack of All Trades, beaten to death with a tactical flashlight and set on fire Night 1.
Valmark, Alien Psychotrooper, executed Day 2.
MornShine, Werewolf Roleblocker, hacked to death with an axe Night 2.
bladescape, Mafia Jack of All Trades, shot with a pistol and beaten to death with a tactical flashlight Night 2.
Batcathat, Cult Fanatic, executed Day 3.
Book Wombat, Town Seer, clawed to death Night 3.
Xihirli, Town Gossip, shot with a blaster Night 3.
Rogan, Werewolf Roleblocker, shot with a pistol Night 3.
Snowblaze, Serial Killer Spy, executed Day 4.
totadileplayz, Town Doctor, shot with a blaster Night 4.
rogue_alchemist, Town Seer, clawed to death Night 4.
Caerulea, Alien Researcher, shot with a pistol Night 4.
Elenna, Werewolf Doctor, executed Day 5.
Aventine, Town Vigilante, shot with a blaster Night 5.
Apogee1, Alien Vigilante, shot with a pistol and beaten to death with a tactical flashlight Night 5.
Setup Phase Start
This phase will end at 18:30 BST on 07/07/2021. (This may be delayed by a few minutes; bear with me.)Last edited by Unavenger; 2021-07-24 at 02:07 PM.
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2021-07-07, 12:32 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
AvatarVecna discarded Town Tracking.
Valmark discarded Town Jack of All Trades.
Bathatcat discarded Werewolf Killing.
Snowblaze discarded Town Roleblocking.
CaoimhinTheCape discarded Town Jack of All Trades.
Book Wombat discarded Town Tracking.
Elenna discarded Cult Investigative.
Xihirli discarded Town Killing.
totadileplayz discarded Alien Communicative.
rogue_alchemist discarded Cult Tracking.
MornShine discarded Mafia Manipulative.
gac3 discarded Mafia Protective.
bladescape discarded Alien Investigative.
Aventine discarded Town Universal Backup.
JeenLeen discarded Town Roleblocking.
EmmyNecromancer discarded Mafia Roleblocking.
Rogan discarded Town Jack of All Trades.
flat_footed discarded Werewolf Protective.
Apogee1 discarded Town Protective.
Caerulea discarded Town Communicative.
Captain Cap discarded Town Protective.
Your faction chats will be up in a few minutes.
- - - Updated - - -
DAY 1 START
This phase will end at 19:00 BST, 09/07/2021.Last edited by Unavenger; 2021-07-09 at 01:20 PM.
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2021-07-07, 01:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
I vote for
Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?
I also deduct that Unavenger is the Deutsche Bahn (German railway). They have a habit of being late and changing the estimated time of arrival multiple times. (The train will be five minutes to late. *5min later* The train will be ten minutes to late. ETC. )Last edited by Rogan; 2021-07-08 at 04:29 AM. Reason: crossing out the vote
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2021-07-07, 01:05 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
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2021-07-07, 01:07 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Recently, a tree fell on the railway near where a friend was trying to get to another town, and the train was consistently expected to arrive nine minutes after the current time, despite the improbability of that actually happening at this point.
At least it was an advance on the 07:39, which had been slated to arrive at 7:40 well into the 8:xx hours.
So don't imagine that Germany is the only country with problems.
Much like a train, I was delayed by unfortunate unforseen and unavoidable circumstances. Apologies.
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2021-07-07, 01:14 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
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2021-07-07, 01:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Going out on a limb here, but I'm gonna vote
Xihirlifor discarding a killing role. Something's fishy...Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-07-09 at 11:54 AM.
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2021-07-07, 01:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
From the last game, it became helpful to know what card distribution was somewhat in play. That is, how many Mafia, Cult, and Alien cards--that helped the Town figure out which factions were active and potentially how many members they had.
So, for anyone who is about to die, I recommend you say what cards you were dealt. Yeah, we probably won't trust you if you flip a baddie faction, but if you are Town and want to help the Town (or help the other factions kill each other?), then sharing is probably helpful.
Speculation on card distribution
Last game, it was possible (if... I think rare) that someone could get 2 'baddie' factions, so merely discarding Werewolf, Alien, Mafia, or Cult doesn't gurantee townie. It was also that some people got 3 Town cards and thus were forced to be Town (if my memory is right, that was based on the first game having only 1 townie, as folk mostly picked 'more fun' factions.)
So, while discarding a Town card doesn't mean anything for a given person, I think that it's more probable that someone who discarded a Town card is actually a baddie. So I'm voting for one of them:Apogee1.
HOWEVER, it is also important to note that Unavenger has learned things from each iteration of this game and presumably changed the card distribution based on that. So my reasoning above is inherently flawed. However, it's not nothing, and that's better than one usually has for a D1 initial vote.
21 players, right?
4 baddie factions, 2 neutrals, and some forced town. For balance, I reckon there's the same (or +/- 1 of the same number) of cards in play for each baddie faction. So 4*X + 2 < 21, where X is the number of baddie cards in play.
So I'm guessing 4 players max for each baddie faction. It could be 5 for some, especially if someone was dealt two baddie cards, but such seems... well, unknowable at this stage and not usable speculation. So I'll assume 4.
That's 4*4 + 2 < 21
18 < 21
So at minimum (21-18=3) 3 townies. Likely more, but at least 3.
We have 3 Mafia discards.
We have 2 Werewolf discards.
We have 2 Cult discards.
We have 2 Alien discards.
This makes me speculate that, at minimum, we have 1 Mafia, 2 werewolves, 2 Cult, and 2 Aliens. It could be less, but that seems a safe 'minimum' to set for evaluating risks.
Also makes me speculate that it's not really a minimum of 3 townies, but (3+2+2+2 discarded baddie cards - 2 neutrals) = 7 town.
So presumably at least 7 baddies, at least 7 town, and 2 neutrals. Though I could see someone discarding Serial Killer (as hard to win as) or Survivor (as boring). But that's still at least 7 baddies and at least 7 town--just definitely could be (and, indeed, as we have 21 players, must be) more than that. Just hard to deduce what faction they'd be part of.
Please attribute math/logic errors to sleeplessness or confusing numbers in my head, not any purposeful misdirection.
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I admit these rationales are also "not nothing", so I agree with their reasoning for a D1 vote.
Still, I'm reluctant to vote Xi just for not being bloodthirsty. Just because she's usually bloodthirsty and flipped wolf last time she acted non-bloodthirsty.... er, well, I get why AV put her vote there, but still reluctant.Last edited by JeenLeen; 2021-07-08 at 10:25 PM.
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2021-07-07, 01:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Let us hope for good game!
As always, a random vote.
ValmarkFleeting dreams of paper wings.
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2021-07-07, 01:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Last edited by Xihirli; 2021-07-08 at 07:08 AM.
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2021-07-07, 01:54 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Some initial thoughts to this info wall.
I am really confident that discarding town does not automatically make you not town. I also thought getting multiple baddys would be somewhat likely, so discarding a bad faction does not make you town.
But unless we get a somewhat significant number of claims about the cards dealt, we can only guess about the distribution.
My intuition would say cult has fewer cards than other factions. After all, the cult can replace killed members and even grow, while everyone else can only lose numbers.
I also think Xi should not be killed day one. I mean, she is murderous and a traitor, but hey... she might want to try something very unexpected this time. Town healer or something. So, give her the benefit of doubt for today. Unless she does something to draw more suspicions than usually.
Discarding an info gathering role seems more damming to me anyway.
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2021-07-07, 01:55 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
I thought about trying to do analysis like this. Most of what you say lines up with what I remember from last game, but with so many unknowns and the fact that the underlying mechanics get changed each time this is played, it felt moot to spell it out. I just struck with the traditional 'random' reason for a vote. Now I did narrow my vote down to those who had discarded town roles, as there are guaranteed *some* baddies in there, so seems pretty better than nothing, but picking Rogan out of the bunch is more of a fun poke at this point than a serious vote.
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2021-07-07, 01:58 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Why would that be guaranteed?
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2021-07-07, 01:58 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
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2021-07-07, 01:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
[color=red]Book Wombat[/color] for preventing Valmark from self-voting.
Serious analysis can wait until tomorrow, although I’ll be afk for much of the day. Should be able to find enough time in the morning to make a start, though.Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-07-09 at 03:14 AM.
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Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
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Deaths: 30
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2021-07-07, 02:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Spoiler: info from last game, spoilered so as not to confuse othersI will say I remember from the first time I played (which was the second time this had been run), I got Town JOAT, Alien Tracking, Town Investigative. From this I could have ended up with Town Tracking and discarded Town Investigative, so I still would have had an info gathering ability, it just wouldn't have been seer, it would have been Watcher. Not to defend your vote target, just making you aware, as you weren't there for that game.
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2021-07-07, 02:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Somehow it feels like there's both too much and too little information for me to try and figure something out, so for now I'll just vote for the first not-me person on the list with no votes.
Snowblaze.Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-07-09 at 01:01 AM.
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2021-07-07, 02:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Location
- six feet under
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
flat_footed, on account of having discarded 'protective'.
w.r.t. JeenLeen's logic: I don't think there would be the same number of cult cards as mafia/werewolves/aliens. Mostly because it would create the possibility of a large (4 going by Jeen's suggestion) person cult at the start of the game. To me that would seem overly strong, though perhaps it would be balanced by there being fewer town and more wolves? It still would heavily disfavor town victory I think.Non caerulea sum, Caerulea nomen meum est.
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2021-07-07, 02:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Overall I believe that it is more likely for scum to hide in the town's it's still possible for scum to hide in the scum discards but I seriously doubt they'd be hiding behind a cult or alien.
Of those that discarded town. The most alarming isRogan. They actively said in recruitment that they'd want to be a cultist and if they can't be that they'd be town to become a cultist. They discarded town.
Other notables are Xihirli.
And the person I'd consider the most sus hiding behind a wolf would be batcathat discarded a killing role, and they know how impactful that can be.Last edited by totadileplayz; 2021-07-09 at 11:38 AM.
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2021-07-07, 02:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
because the odds of that many people having all town cards is low, and the general consensus is that town is less fun as you don't have a group to talk with/plan with. With so many factions being town is also a lot harder, so I will guarantee that there is at least 1 baddie in the group that discarded town cards.
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2021-07-07, 02:34 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Thanks for the reminder. I'll keep it in mind.
Okay, you are probably right about protective being a very strong power, maybe even more powerful than seer. After all, you can both self target when you don't know who is hostile and protect other helpful people. Especially when you can't target yourself.
So, info gathering and protection as suggested top picks from a power perspective? For fun, I think other roles would be better.
Agree about the cult, but I said so before.
I don't think I said I want to be town to become a cultists? I joked about joining to help make a cult, but part of this was unavanger stating he could delay the game start to help someone make the cut.
My preference I openly stated was a survivor gifting info gathering powers to other people for fun and profit.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-07-07, 02:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Still trying to get
Valmarklynched D1.Last edited by Elenna; 2021-07-09 at 09:11 AM. Reason: wrong colour
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2021-07-07, 02:48 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
CaoimhinTheCape.I'm not sure you've got no votes on you though, I kinda lost count midway.
Anyway, I wouldn't put too much stock on what was said in recruitment before cards were being dealt- they aren't actually indicative of anything since there wasn't anything to indicate just yet (imo).Last edited by Valmark; 2021-07-09 at 05:17 AM.
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2021-07-07, 02:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
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2021-07-07, 03:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Absence of evidence is evidence of conspiracy, after all :p
-------------------
Anyways Jeen's table pretty drastically underpredicts the number of people of each alignment in my experience with how the previous two games have gone.
Reading too much into what people select just makes it easier for wolf/maf/cult/alien/sk to figure out who the cops and vig's are.
I'd be interested in seeing why flat-footed didn't take protective, but in my own experience a doc in this kind of game is both boring and pretty useless for town.
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2021-07-07, 03:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
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2021-07-07, 03:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
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2021-07-07, 03:35 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
Spoiler: Cult tangent
Later, when there was only one player needed to get cult cards, I joined the game, thereby creating a cult - or at least create the possibility of a cult.
But my intend was more of a continued joke than the wish to be a member of the cult.
But enough of the recruitment thread, or else I have to claim seer.
Does anybody disagree about the possibility of there being fewer cult cards than cards for other evildoers? There obviously are more town cards than any single other factions.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-07-07, 03:41 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2021-07-07, 03:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Craziest Idea Mafia
I asked Unavenger last time about the distribution of cards and they said that it is not even. So I think Cult will start with fewer, now there is also the choice element, so maybe instead of starting with 7 of each card cult only starts with 5, which would still be too many for normal balance, but assuming that some people will discard cult (like I did).