OOTS #1249 - The Discussion Thread

[Peelee]

I'm not saying that Miko did well(she sucks), I'm saying that if Roy hadn't pinged as Evil even Miko likely wouldn't have started with the stabbings.

I'm not as sure of that. The evil ping gave her more justification, but they are still accused of a crime, and "surrender or die" seems like the sort of ultimatum she would give regardless.

[Fyraltari]

I think that, because of her biased view of "Good", Miko simply understood her orders in a more intense way than what was meant.

She thought the spirit of the Order was to neutralize the Order's capacity for nuisance. Ideally non-lethally, but that last part wasn't that important.

[BloodSquirrel]

I think this might be a point in Serini's favour.

Shojo bypassed the non-interference oath, leading to:
a) Miko falling and taking the head of state with her, which may have also driven the nobility to flee with their forces before the battle.
b) The Linear Guild finding out about the Gates - and thereby the IFCC finding out about them.
c) Vaarsuvius gaining the Soul Splice and killing the Draketooths.
d) The Order knowing about Girard's gate and finding and destroying it.
e) The Order heading to her Gate and begin to expose her hidden defences to Team Evil.

If Shojo had not interfered then Xykon would still have shown up to Soon's gate with an army of hobgoblins, but they may have met a more unified front and so the threat may have ended there - even if it didn't Girard's gate would have been better defended when he arrived and Serini's Gate's would be somewhat less exposed.

In terms of Gate preservation Shojo's actions have likely been more harmful then helpful.

The problem with that logic is that it involves a chain of unpredictable events that could not have been foreseen by Shojo at the time, without considering that similarly unpredictable events would have been just as likely to happen if Shojo hadn't interfered. This is the same fallacy that people engage in when they say "If X historical event hadn't happened, then the present would like like Y", without regard for the fact that history is full of unpredictable events, including, usually, event X.

Case in point: Without Shojo's interference, the Order (A party of high-level adventurers whose contributions to the battle were significant) wouldn't have been at Soon's gate to help defend it. They would have eventually found out that Xykon was still unalive from Eugene, and might have wound up pursuing him to a gate with even less of an idea of what it was or why they shouldn't destroy it.

There are too many variables to figure out how things would have gone if Shojo had never sent Miko after the Order.

[drazen]

The problem with that logic is that it involves a chain of unpredictable events that could not have been foreseen by Shojo at the time, without considering that similarly unpredictable events would have been just as likely to happen if Shojo hadn't interfered. This is the same fallacy that people engage in when they say "If X historical event hadn't happened, then the present would like like Y", without regard for the fact that history is full of unpredictable events, including, usually, event X.

Case in point: Without Shojo's interference, the Order (A party of high-level adventurers whose contributions to the battle were significant) wouldn't have been at Soon's gate to help defend it. They would have eventually found out that Xykon was still unalive from Eugene, and might have wound up pursuing him to a gate with even less of an idea of what it was or why they shouldn't destroy it.

There are too many variables to figure out how things would have gone if Shojo had never sent Miko after the Order.

In #293, Roy mentions Eugene didn't know about the gates until Shojo filled him in, so I'm going to guess they would not have been particularly concerned with the gates -- but Xykon and Redcloak would have been stopped by Ghost-Soon in the throne room (no crazy Miko to wreck things, and/or Xykon would have dispatched her easily, as with O-Chul). They almost were anyway, until Miko smashed the sapphire.

The city would likely still be occupied, but the reaistance would likely have succeeded rather than everyone except Haley, Belkar, Mr Scruffy, and Niu being snuffed out by Redcloak and his summoned monsters.

I'm not sure the Order would have had time to catch up to Xykon; I think it was only a couple weeks after Roy got his sword reforger that the invasion happened?

[dancrilis]

The problem with that logic is that it involves a chain of unpredictable events that could not have been foreseen by Shojo at the time, without considering that similarly unpredictable events would have been just as likely to happen if Shojo hadn't interfered.

Not really the point - Shojo broke his oath and bad things happened as a direct consequence, that I think seems pretty clear.

Maybe if he hadn't broken it things would be worse or better we don't know, but that doesn't change the fact that the bad things that did happen seem to stem from his decision to break his oath.

[Bacon Elemental]

Not really the point - Shojo broke his oath and bad things happened as a direct consequence, that I think seems pretty clear.

Maybe if he hadn't broken it things would be worse or better we don't know, but that doesn't change the fact that the bad things that did happen seem to stem from his decision to break his oath.

While you are obviously correct in that there was a direct link of causation between Shojo's decision to be proactive about the Gates and all those other events, this is very much like the old joke that the Vienna School of Fine Arts should have known better than to deny an applicant for their unsatisfactory drawing construction skills in 1907, because that ultimately set a chain of events in motion leading to several tens of million dead across the whole of Europe.

Shojo's actions have clearly led to a great deal of terrible actions occuring... due to a long series of incredible coincidences happening. Oh, and to throw a spanner in the works, Team Evil only launched their hasty and ill-advised assault on the throne room that nearly resulted in their deaths because Xykon knew the Gate was there, which he only knew because he scried on Miko leaving the anti scry zone at the perfect moment, which he only could do because he ran into her during the march on Azure City, which he was only able to do because she was returning from the Dwarven Lands at the perfect time instead of being in the city or out on a mission, which she was only doing because Shojo did a favour for Durkon, which he only did because of the same chain of events yadda yadda.

Without running into Miko, the only paladin who happened to be in their path, Team Evil would have shown up totally unannounced, giving Azure City even less time to prepare than they already did. They'd have been down a bunch of extremely powerful PCs and would probbably have been overrun far faster, without letting all those thousands of people evacuate in time. The last stand of the sapphire ghost-martyrs might have gone differently if Xykon and Redcloak had showed up together with a bunch of goblin clerics as support, instead of Redcloak showing up late with half his spell list expended and Xykon half-dead and needing serious healing having wasted ages in combat after being caught out.

[BloodSquirrel]

Not really the point - Shojo broke his oath and bad things happened as a direct consequence, that I think seems pretty clear.

No, not as a direct consequence at all. The consequences were very, very indirect, to the point where many of them are highly speculative.

One could pin the destruction of Soon and Girard's gate on any number of other decisions made by characters leading up to that point with just as much or more veracity. You could blame Eugene, for getting his son involved. You could blame Nale, both for interfering with the Order's mission to help protect Soon's gate and for what happened at Girard's gate. You could blame Xykon's mom for having a child, or Durkon for not executing a dangerous criminal (Nale) when he had the chance, or Hinjo for not telling the nobles about the gate, which might have made some of them stay to defend it.

Or, you know, Serini, for not stepping in sooner when she knew that a powerful and dangerous lich was coming after the gates. Or for coming up with the whole idea of the oaths in the first place. It's far, far more arguable that the oaths themselves directly led to the gates falling, as it allowed Xykon to pick them off one by one.

It's as random as blaming somebody for a traffic accident that you got into because if they hadn't called your phone and hour ago and held you up with a conversation you would have gotten to that spot five minutes earlier and wouldn't have been behind the guy who stopped short because a dog ran into the road. Oh, and you were texting while you were driving and were only five feet off of the guy's rear bumper.

In #293, Roy mentions Eugene didn't know about the gates until Shojo filled him in, so I'm going to guess they would not have been particularly concerned with the gates -- but Xykon and Redcloak would have been stopped by Ghost-Soon in the throne room (no crazy Miko to wreck things, and/or Xykon would have dispatched her easily, as with O-Chul). They almost were anyway, until Miko smashed the sapphire.

There's no reason to believe this. Without the Order, Xykon and Redcloak would have had an even easier time taking the city, and Redcloak would have gotten to the throne room sooner to back up Xykon. Or Miko might have found something else to flip out about- it's not like the Order was the only factor in her fall, or were even uniquely suited to help it along.

You are describing one speculative possibility of how events might have turned out, without justification for why that possibility is more likely that the millions of others we could invent.

[Liquor Box]

I too am getting some distressing Chekov's Cauldron vibes.

The fact that nearly every panel has fumes from the cauldron makes me think that the Giant is wanting people to notice that it is still there.

Prediction:
Serini will end up drinking the forgetful potion. Possibly by being knocked into it, or it onto her.

It looks like it is still boiling, so her falling into it would probably make the rest of her look like her troll side.

[BloodSquirrel]

The fact that nearly every panel has fumes from the cauldron makes me think that the Giant is wanting people to notice that it is still there.

Alternatively, it just makes the composition more interesting.

I really don't see what purpose someone falling into the cauldron would serve. It also seems odd to me to speculate that the Giant might do something that would be considered bad storytelling just because not doing it would be a violation of good storytelling rules (ie, having an unfired Chekov's gun). Especially when he's been pretty consistent on not resorting to easy solutions to dramatic problems.

[Emanick]

Alternatively, it just makes the composition more interesting.

I really don't see what purpose someone falling into the cauldron would serve. It also seems odd to me to speculate that the Giant might do something that would be considered bad storytelling just because not doing it would be a violation of good storytelling rules (ie, having an unfired Chekov's gun). Especially when he's been pretty consistent on not resorting to easy solutions to dramatic problems.

There are enough reasons why somebody might fall into the cauldron, and enough potential outcomes, that I think it's premature to assume whether the event would be good or bad storytelling. I certainly don't see any specific way in which it would lead to a better story, but since I haven't foreseen most of the twists in the story thus far, that doesn't mean much.

It could be a Chekov's Cauldron. It could also just be a nice art effect. It really seems too early to assume anything, though of course we can always speculate, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[Schroeswald]

Wait are we starting to argue about Miko again? It’s been so long since we did one of those I thought we’d forgotten about her!

[dancrilis]

...snip...

I think you are missing my point.

My point: without Shojo the plot doesn't seem to happen, and most of the plot has involved the protaganists messing up.

Now don't get me wrong without Shojo breaking his oath The Giant would have found some other way for the plot to happen i.e:
The Order return to the village.
Find out that the Linear Guild or loose.
Defeat the Linear Guild.
Reforge Roy's sword.
Find out Xykon is still alive.
Visit the Oracle.
Travel to Azure City.
... continue quest.

But then it wouldn't have been directly linked to Shojo breaking his oath.

Wait are we starting to argue about Miko again?

Not really, this is more about Shojo and I am not sure it is an arguement rather then a misunderstanding.

[BloodSquirrel]

I think you are missing my point.

My point: without Shojo the plot doesn't seem to happen, and most of the plot has involved the protaganists messing up.

No, I'm not missing your point. I'm telling you that it's irrelevant, because you can just as easily say that without Roy's mom the plot doesn't happen.

This is one of those cases where you need to stop telling other people that they don't understand you and actually try to engage with the counterargument they're making.

[dancrilis]

... actually try to engage with the counterargument they're making.

What is your counterargument?

[jokem]

Okay, now I feel sorry for the poor halfling lady.

(Makes me wonder how she'd feel about the news that Soon almost killed Xykon and Redcloak.)

??? XYkon is dead already...

[Larsaan]

What is your counterargument?

I'm pretty sure the argument is over the difference between a direct and an indirect cause. Just because something couldn't have happened if not for X, doesn't mean it happened because of X. Might as well blame the fall of Soon's Gate on Thor, since it was his storm that let Miko overpower the Order.

[Hurkyl]

I think this might be a point in Serini's favour.

Shojo bypassed the non-interference oath, leading to:
a) Miko falling and taking the head of state with her, which may have also driven the nobility to flee with their forces before the battle.
b) The Linear Guild finding out about the Gates - and thereby the IFCC finding out about them.
c) Vaarsuvius gaining the Soul Splice and killing the Draketooths.
d) The Order knowing about Girard's gate and finding and destroying it.
e) The Order heading to her Gate and begin to expose her hidden defences to Team Evil.

If Shojo had not interfered then Xykon would still have shown up to Soon's gate with an army of hobgoblins, but they may have met a more unified front and so the threat may have ended there - even if it didn't Girard's gate would have been better defended when he arrived and Serini's Gate's would be somewhat less exposed.

In terms of Gate preservation Shojo's actions have likely been more harmful then helpful.

The problem with that logic is that it involves a chain of unpredictable events that could not have been foreseen by Shojo at the time, without considering that similarly unpredictable events would have been just as likely to happen if Shojo hadn't interfered. This is the same fallacy that people engage in when they say "If X historical event hadn't happened, then the present would like like Y", without regard for the fact that history is full of unpredictable events, including, usually, event X.

Case in point: Without Shojo's interference, the Order (A party of high-level adventurers whose contributions to the battle were significant) wouldn't have been at Soon's gate to help defend it. They would have eventually found out that Xykon was still unalive from Eugene, and might have wound up pursuing him to a gate with even less of an idea of what it was or why they shouldn't destroy it.

There are too many variables to figure out how things would have gone if Shojo had never sent Miko after the Order.

I agree in part with both of you.

Shojo's choice to violate the Scribbler's agreement takes a full share of the blame when the actions are due to his agents being involved in the other defenses -- for example, the Vector legion learning about Girard's gate, Girard's gate's destruction, and nearly compromising the shell game. I would like to add putting Team Evil on high alert to the list of charges.

Not because his meddling could have been forseen to have those specific consequences, but simply because the agreement was not to get involved and the spirit of the agreement is that they didn't trust each others' methods. Shojo imposed his methods on the other gates, and they messed things up.

Shojo's choice, however, is completely innocent in the case of the Draketooth clan's extermination.

As for Miko snapping... the Scribbler agreement is a red herring. The 'crime' there was knowingly working behind the Guard's back to do things they wouldn't approve of. The specific conspiracy Miko learned of wasn't really relevant.

[Vikenlugaid]

I'm pretty sure the argument is over the difference between a direct and an indirect cause. Just because something couldn't have happened if not for X, doesn't mean it happened because of X. Might as well blame the fall of Soon's Gate on Thor, since it was his storm that let Miko overpower the Order.

Not the same, Shojo, as a commander and ruler, is responsible of Miko's actions... And not only that, when he got killed he refuse to be resurrected, leaving Azure city and Soon's gate "alone". I am pretty sure he would have defended the city better than Hinjo, who is not a very good ruler and didn't have the support of the nobles.

[Metastachydium]

Not the same, Shojo, as a commander and ruler, is responsible of Miko's actions... And not only that, when he got killed he refuse to be resurrected, leaving Azure city and Soon's gate "alone". I am pretty sure he would have defended the city better than Hinjo, who is not a very good ruler and didn't have the support of the nobles.

To be fair, he would have likely been arrested and stripped of his title immediately after coming back, so whether he lived or not would have mattered less than you suggest it would have.

[BloodSquirrel]

Not the same, Shojo, as a commander and ruler, is responsible of Miko's actions...

Not after she openly refuses to follow his orders, kills him, loses her powers, is arrested, and only gets out of jail because an attacking army frees her. Once someone openly declares that you're not her commander anymore, you are no longer responsible for them doing things that you never ordered her to do.

[BloodSquirrel]

Not because his meddling could have been forseen to have those specific consequences, but simply because the agreement was not to get involved and the spirit of the agreement is that they didn't trust each others' methods. Shojo imposed his methods on the other gates, and they messed things up.

The problem here is that you could just easily argue that failing to interfere with Dorukan's gate led to things being messed up there. Three out of the four gates that fell did so without interference from another gate's defenders. If Shojo had abandoned a strategy that was proving effective, it would be one thing, but by the time he recruited the order, two gates were already down, and his own gate was the one that was attacked next.

Also, the Vector Legion finding out about the gates happened because of events that predated any actual interference with any of the other gate's defenses. Shojo brought the Order to Sapphire City because he wanted agents who weren't bound by the SG's oaths, but immediately after that, the Order had to go chase Nale, which had nothing to do with any of the gates, and it was Nale impersonating Elan when they got back that led to him finding out. And pretty shortly after that, Xykon attacked. The Order never got the chance to actually peek in on either of the other two remaining gates. If he had brought the Order in purely to help defend his own gate, which wouldn't have violated his oath, we'd have gotten the same result.

[Hurkyl]

The problem here is that you could just easily argue that failing to interfere with Dorukan's gate led to things being messed up there. Three out of the four gates that fell did so without interference from another gate's defenders. If Shojo had abandoned a strategy that was proving effective, it would be one thing, but by the time he recruited the order, two gates were already down, and his own gate was the one that was attacked next.

Sure, there is always the question of when to renege a promise. Or whether it's worth the gamble that the people who you made that promise to will accept your violation.

Also, the Vector Legion finding out about the gates happened because of events that predated any actual interference with any of the other gate's defenses.

The Vector Legion found out because the Order was tracking down the gate, asked the wrong people, and were followed.

[Liquor Box]

I don't necessarily disagree with Hurkyl's argument that by violating the agreement among the Scribble, Shojo has a heightened level of responsibility for the consequences that flow from that. Even if those consequences are unforeseeable.

Nut I think the same logic can be applied to Serini. She may or may not have violated the agreement between the Scribble by whatever means she used to know so much about the end of Shojo's gate. But even if not, she has violated the general societal understanding that people will not attack others by attacking the Order and the paladins. In my opinion, she also has heightened responsibility for the consequences flowing from her attack, even if unforeseeable.

In each it may be possible to argue that Serini/Shojo's interference was justified or reasonable in the circumstances of them thinking their actions were the best thing to do to save the world.

[danielxcutter]

Well, despite my multiple reasons for disagreeing with her it doesn’t seem that she had much of a way to know about the ongoing Godsmoot at least.

[Vikenlugaid]

Not after she openly refuses to follow his orders, kills him, loses her powers, is arrested, and only gets out of jail because an attacking army frees her. Once someone openly declares that you're not her commander anymore, you are no longer responsible for them doing things that you never ordered her to do.

Someone could think Shojo was responsible of Miko's personality aswell, or at least responsible of not trying to "cure" that personality till it was too late.

[hamishspence]

As The Giant has pointed out - Shojo's effort at raising Miko was kind of positive. She was 13 when Shojo informally (rather than legally) adopted her, and had plenty of underlying issues.

If anything, I attribute most of her positive traits to the way she was raised by Shojo and her subsequent membership in the Sapphire Guard. Which is not to say that he did a perfect job, but he recognized that she needed discipline in order to function, and gave her life meaning and purpose that it wouldn't have otherwise had. I've always felt that someone who had come to him with less underlying issues (whether due to her inherent personality or the trauma of losing her parents and getting sent to a monastery) could have been raised the same way and not turned out to be like Miko. Likewise, if Miko had never met Shojo, she probably would have left the monastery as an angry unstable loner with no purpose. Shojo's guidance was the tape that was held her together for so long, which is why she went to pieces when it was ripped off.

[danielxcutter]

Also according to GDGU there were plenty of other Guard members to be a... less than positive influence on her.

[BloodSquirrel]

The Vector Legion found out because the Order was tracking down the gate, asked the wrong people, and were followed.

...well after Shojo was dead and the Order was no longer working for him. The point is that this would have happened whether Shojo had recruited the Order to spy on the other gates or just to help defend his own (which, by the agreement, he was perfectly free to do). Either way, after his gate fell, the Order would have gone on to Girard's gate. The difference here is hypothetical- if Xykon hadn't shown up so soon, the Order might have gone to Girard's gate under Shojo's orders.

[danielxcutter]

I mean, the Order was literally planning to go to Girard's Gate before they learned about the upcoming attack on Azure City, so...

Also literally none of the other Scribblers kept the oath at all, so I don't see why Shojo is to blame any more than them when he wasn't even one of the people who originally swore it.

[Vikenlugaid]

Also literally none of the other Scribblers kept the oath at all.

Wait, what?