Breakfast Cereal Mascots Werewolf!

[Illven]

Alright with both players being town. I think that means we're looking for wolves seemingly unconcerned with yesterday's yeet.

Which to be fair includes me. Analysis to come later

[Illven]

Okay, I don't think Vecna's a wolf. If they were I don't think they'd complain about a bladescape wagon. They'd just let it happen.

I'm leaning towards Book and Corn for relative silence.

Jeen and Caedorus are no lean at this time.

Let's get Corn in here.

[JeenLeen]

I was fairly strongly wolf-reading Snow after D1.
So on one hand, I'm happy with this death as I probably would have pushed the Snowblaze wagon this Day. The wolves saved us all a potential mistake there.
On the other hand, Snow is a good player and now we're down two very strong analysis players.

Illven, talk me through why vote analysis makes me look suspicious?

Illven, please answer the queries of the dead.

Okay, I don't think Vecna's a wolf. If they were I don't think they'd complain about a bladescape wagon. They'd just let it happen.

I'm leaning towards Book and Corn for relative silence.

Jeen and Caedorus are no lean at this time.

Let's get Corn in here.

It would be good to get corncob talking more.
I'm surprised to hear you mention Book Wombat, though. While he has been his normal "not posting much of content", he has posted more than usual for D1.

For now -- while I do greatly appreciate her helping me get to play this game -- I got an odd feel about AvatarVecna.
I want to see what some others say, and give myself time to make some coherent thoughts. Not her answers per se, but the timing of them.

But I realize I'm feeling some paranoia towards everyone who has posted... which means little.

[Illven]

Ah yes, I think I was misunderstood. I meant we want two strong wagons so that when and if their roles are revealed we can discuss who voted for who, and what reasons did they give.

[JeenLeen]

Forgot to mention that I just forgot/missed Caedorus posting near gamestart.
Yeah, what I said only would apply to corncobweb.

I'm so paranoid Jeen/snow is pocketing everyone... gah

I think this gives me a slight townread on Caedorus.
I'm not sure it's the right interpretation, but that Snow was still a "maybe the wagon would swing to her" target and wolves killed Snow N1... seems odd for a wolf to say this and then Snow die.

Ah yes, I think I was misunderstood. I meant we want two strong wagons so that when and if their roles are revealed we can discuss who voted for who, and what reasons did they give.

That jives. Thanks.

[AvatarVecna]

I feel similar about ccw, but not BW. They're quiet, but they're always quiet, and pressure doesn't tend to change that. I'm used to ccw having more thread presence than this. That said, I'm still a bit suspicious of Caedorus tbh.

[TheHalfAasimar]

(sorry about not being all that active)

Honestly, the biggest bottleneck here is that I don't know any of you, and therefore cannot string together an idea as to who is or isn't a wolf based on your personality. I haven't played enough games, haven't seen as many posts, so I'm probably the bottleneck for the maximum efficiency. I'm not saying I'm a wolf, because I'm not, I will probably refrain from voting this time around so that I don't screw anything up and kill someone innocent like I did last vote. Sorry.

[JeenLeen]

(sorry about not being all that active)

Honestly, the biggest bottleneck here is that I don't know any of you, and therefore cannot string together an idea as to who is or isn't a wolf based on your personality. I haven't played enough games, haven't seen as many posts, so I'm probably the bottleneck for the maximum efficiency. I'm not saying I'm a wolf, because I'm not, I will probably refrain from voting this time around so that I don't screw anything up and kill someone innocent like I did last vote. Sorry.

Hmm... townlean.
A wolf might say something like this, but I don't think they'd lock themselves into not voting with so much time left on the Day. At least unless, like, TheHalfAasimar and Book Wombat are scum and pretty confident no votes towards them.
Townlean or very sneak wolf doing cool WIFOM. Leaning townlean.

I had hoped to have more to respond to, but I'm going to be offline most of today and worried if I wait until tonight, nobody will have time to respond to my stuff.
Hitting 'Submit' then opening the text file I wrote last night.

- - - Updated - - -

The Yugioh games in my memory make me wanna keep saying "I reveal my trap card." [edit: nobody talked enough to trigger my trap :( ]

So, posting last night, I asked some stuff of Illven and voted AV.
I got some answers, but wanted to see how others (especially AV and Caedorus) responded.
Here's what I wrote before signing off for the night.

----

I thought I was willing to townclear corncob.
Given some... potentially-I-am-a-jerk data-obtaining methods, I saw his Latest Activity was 5/20, but his last post was the one in the recruitment for this game, way before 5/20. That means Latest Activity tracks other stuff than posting, like maybe logging in or reading a PM.
Also -- and this is 100% compliment -- corncob has been wily in the past. I can see him realizing the implications of the confirmations and laying low.

I got my PM on 5/22. His Latest Activity was 5/20.
I want to townclear him. When I first wrote this I had, but maybe wolves got theirs a couple days early? Eh, probably not. While I can see giving them out to wolves first to make sure the wolves are able to still play, the way Xi posted makes me think they were sent out at the same time and D1 officially started once confirmations were made.

So I guess I'm hesitantly townclearing him instead of confidently doing so.

Alright with both players being town. I think that means we're looking for wolves seemingly unconcerned with yesterday's yeet.

Which to be fair includes me. Analysis to come later

Having wolfed alongside Illven in the past, this feels like a confession of actual wolf feelings rather than a townie's conclusion.

Okay, I don't think Vecna's a wolf. If they were I don't think they'd complain about a bladescape wagon. They'd just let it happen.

I'm leaning towards Book and Corn for relative silence.

Jeen and Caedorus are no lean at this time.

Let's get Corn in here.

On suspecting AV: I think I suspect Illven more, but I didn't want to make that clear until others had time to respond and post.
I do suspect AV, and I'll get into that later. Based on current posts, I could see AV/Caedorus, AV/Illven, or Illven/Caedorus.
I don't think Book Wombat and Illven are scumbuddies. Instead, I think wolf!Illven wanted to cast shade on Book and maybe make us think it was distancing, while voting Corncob. That way if she flips, we might vote out Book Wombat; and, also, if she doesn't flip, the seeds of doubt about him are planted so maybe we vote him out anyhow.

Putting me and Caedorus as the nulls... feels a good way to get someone Snow townread (me) a seed of doubt, and maybe distancing the scumbuddy who got the wagon off her?

Ah yes, I think I was misunderstood. I meant we want two strong wagons so that when and if their roles are revealed we can discuss who voted for who, and what reasons did they give.

That is a good answer Illven gave, as I stated earlier.
But it would also explain why wolf!Illven would want Snow dead--to give town essentially no intel to use D2.

--- ---

I'm leaning Illven and Caedorus as the wolves.
I'm finding Caedorus hard to read, so starting my vote on Illven.
I do still find AV a little suspicious, but I've gotten little to go on, less vibes than I usually get when she's wolf.

If Book Wombat is a wolf, I think we're in trouble since he lays low well. I was a little paranoid about him posting maybe more than usual D1, but I also want to encourage him posting more, so not wanting to vote him for that.

---

Back to 5/27 writing.
I'm feeling less sure about Caedorus. His statement about me/Snow... but I'll see how others flip first.

[TheHalfAasimar]

Townlean or very sneak wolf doing cool WIFOM. Leaning townlean.

I didn't understand a word of that, but okay. What does WIFOM stand for? I also don't really have paranoia for anyone.

EDIT

@JeenLeen, I must say, after reading your post a couple of times, I was thinking we should be teammates, but then a read-and-a-half later, I suddenly realized no, that's a dumb idea. What if he's the wolf?

I know it took an entire epiphany, but I'm voting JeenLeen

[JeenLeen]

EDIT: I realize I never did get back to why I suspect AV.
Basically, when she posted about why she voted how she did, it seemed a good time for a wolf to post.
Now, maybe partially it was her being very nice to me and talking at Night to make sure the wolves saw I'm probably going off the mafia games for a while (unless I get extremely lucky answers from folk known not to give lucky answers at work)... kinda hinting to wolves "hey, don't kill JeenLeen N1"...

So I don't want to lynch her this Day.
But... well, maybe I can get a coherent thought together if I'm still alive D3.
(No hard feelings if I'm offed this Night. Been a fun game thus far.)

- - - Updated - - -

I didn't understand a word of that, but okay. What does WIFOM stand for? I also don't really have paranoia for anyone.

"Wine in front of me", reference to The Princess Bride and... well, I'll let someone with more time respond more.
But basically, I see you as town for posting that. Since it would be a bad tactical move for a wolf to make.
Unless you are a wolf saying it to convince me you're town.
But I read you as sincere.

[TheHalfAasimar]

"Wine in front of me", reference to The Princess Bride and... well, I'll let someone with more time respond more.
But basically, I see you as town for posting that. Since it would be a bad tactical move for a wolf to make.
Unless you are a wolf saying it to convince me you're town.
But I read you as sincere.

Thanks for the clarification!

[Caedorus]

I still think Jeen is town-ish. I'm trying to think who would kill Snow but tbh it could've been anyone? Objectively, Snow was the best wolfkill, as much as it sucks.
This means I am fresh out of clues. I could scan the thread...

...But I'm lazy. Corncobweb for a little pressure.

- - - Updated - - -

Forgot to mention that I just forgot/missed Caedorus posting near gamestart.
Yeah, what I said only would apply to corncobweb.



I think this gives me a slight townread on Caedorus.
I'm not sure it's the right interpretation, but that Snow was still a "maybe the wagon would swing to her" target and wolves killed Snow N1... seems odd for a wolf to say this and then Snow die.



That jives. Thanks.

Hmm... townlean.
A wolf might say something like this, but I don't think they'd lock themselves into not voting with so much time left on the Day. At least unless, like, TheHalfAasimar and Book Wombat are scum and pretty confident no votes towards them.
Townlean or very sneak wolf doing cool WIFOM. Leaning townlean.

I had hoped to have more to respond to, but I'm going to be offline most of today and worried if I wait until tonight, nobody will have time to respond to my stuff.
Hitting 'Submit' then opening the text file I wrote last night.

- - - Updated - - -

The Yugioh games in my memory make me wanna keep saying "I reveal my trap card." [edit: nobody talked enough to trigger my trap :( ]

So, posting last night, I asked some stuff of Illven and voted AV.
I got some answers, but wanted to see how others (especially AV and Caedorus) responded.
Here's what I wrote before signing off for the night.

----

I thought I was willing to townclear corncob.
Given some... potentially-I-am-a-jerk data-obtaining methods, I saw his Latest Activity was 5/20, but his last post was the one in the recruitment for this game, way before 5/20. That means Latest Activity tracks other stuff than posting, like maybe logging in or reading a PM.
Also -- and this is 100% compliment -- corncob has been wily in the past. I can see him realizing the implications of the confirmations and laying low.

I got my PM on 5/22. His Latest Activity was 5/20.
I want to townclear him. When I first wrote this I had, but maybe wolves got theirs a couple days early? Eh, probably not. While I can see giving them out to wolves first to make sure the wolves are able to still play, the way Xi posted makes me think they were sent out at the same time and D1 officially started once confirmations were made.

So I guess I'm hesitantly townclearing him instead of confidently doing so.



Having wolfed alongside Illven in the past, this feels like a confession of actual wolf feelings rather than a townie's conclusion.



On suspecting AV: I think I suspect Illven more, but I didn't want to make that clear until others had time to respond and post.
I do suspect AV, and I'll get into that later. Based on current posts, I could see AV/Caedorus, AV/Illven, or Illven/Caedorus.
I don't think Book Wombat and Illven are scumbuddies. Instead, I think wolf!Illven wanted to cast shade on Book and maybe make us think it was distancing, while voting Corncob. That way if she flips, we might vote out Book Wombat; and, also, if she doesn't flip, the seeds of doubt about him are planted so maybe we vote him out anyhow.

Putting me and Caedorus as the nulls... feels a good way to get someone Snow townread (me) a seed of doubt, and maybe distancing the scumbuddy who got the wagon off her?



That is a good answer Illven gave, as I stated earlier.
But it would also explain why wolf!Illven would want Snow dead--to give town essentially no intel to use D2.

--- ---

I'm leaning Illven and Caedorus as the wolves.
I'm finding Caedorus hard to read, so starting my vote on Illven.
I do still find AV a little suspicious, but I've gotten little to go on, less vibes than I usually get when she's wolf.

If Book Wombat is a wolf, I think we're in trouble since he lays low well. I was a little paranoid about him posting maybe more than usual D1, but I also want to encourage him posting more, so not wanting to vote him for that.

---

Back to 5/27 writing.
I'm feeling less sure about Caedorus. His statement about me/Snow... but I'll see how others flip first.

I read your post twice and I don't see what made you go from townlean to "probably the other wolf". Could you elaborate please?

[TheHalfAasimar]

I still think Jeen is town-ish. I'm trying to think who would kill Snow but tbh it could've been anyone? Objectively, Snow was the best wolfkill, as much as it sucks.
This means I am fresh out of clues. I could scan the thread...

...But I'm lazy. Corncobweb for a little pressure.

- - - Updated - - -




I read your post twice and I don't see what made you go from townlean to "probably the other wolf". Could you elaborate please?

Maybe I'm just stupid, but he seems to have a pretty good grasp on 'I'm pretty sure xyz is the wolf,' which kinda seems to be suspicious to me. He also seems to be trying to put up a facade. Not saying I know that Jeen's the wolf, I just have my reasons (albeit they are stupid)

[Illven]

Yeah. Jeen can you elaborate on the reasons for the flip?

[JeenLeen]

I still think Jeen is town-ish. I'm trying to think who would kill Snow but tbh it could've been anyone? Objectively, Snow was the best wolfkill, as much as it sucks.
This means I am fresh out of clues. I could scan the thread...

...But I'm lazy. Corncobweb for a little pressure.

- - - Updated - - -




I read your post twice and I don't see what made you go from townlean to "probably the other wolf". Could you elaborate please?

Yeah. Jeen can you elaborate on the reasons for the flip?

Basically, if I remember the vote patterns right, Caedorus started the saving-Illven movement by getting her out of the ties. If Illven is a wolf, that seems a legitimate way to do it while not drawing too much suspicion.

Also, I am going back and forth on interpreting his comment about Snowblaze.
It seems odd for a wolf to say if the wolves plan to kill whichever of blade/Snow survived D1.
On the other hand, WIFOM says saying something odd for a wolf to do is a good wolf move. And maybe the wolves hadn't decided yet so I'm reading too much into it.

So, really, right now I'd like to see Illven flip, then reread to try to analyze based on that reveal.

Maybe I'm just stupid, but he seems to have a pretty good grasp on 'I'm pretty sure xyz is the wolf,' which kinda seems to be suspicious to me. He also seems to be trying to put up a facade. Not saying I know that Jeen's the wolf, I just have my reasons (albeit they are stupid)

You make a good point.
I am stating more confident than I really am.
If I think about what I'm really saying, it's that I think the wolves are basically any pair excluding me, you (TheHalfAasimar), and corncobweb, except... well, whichever one I stated. ::rereads:: Illven/BookWombat.
That AV voted Caedorus early this Day makes me think they aren't scumbuddies. Could be distancing, but seems risky.

---

Also, I realize I forgot to cross out my original vote on AV. I don't remember if the rules require us to do that or not, but I'm doing that after I submit this post.

[TheHalfAasimar]

You make a good point.
I am stating more confident than I really am.
If I think about what I'm really saying, it's that I think the wolves are basically any pair excluding me, you (TheHalfAasimar), and corncobweb, except... well, whichever one I stated. ::rereads:: Illven/BookWombat.
That AV voted Caedorus early this Day makes me think they aren't scumbuddies. Could be distancing, but seems risky.

Hmm... my suspicions are slightly calmed (for now) but I still have my doubts. Not changing my vote quite yet. I'll need more proof than that.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm a bit distracted with life but I've got some time for this game.

My immediate thoughts is that in a game this small, all it takes for wolves to win is to control the narrative. You get just a couple MLs and suddenly the game is over before anybody has a good grasp on what's happening. So like I guess I'd clear BW and CCW on that basic, right? Except there isn't anybody who has double-digit posts yet cuz everybody's checked out. There's not exactly anybody really powerwolfing here. The closest is JeenLeen if you squint, which is why the new guy is scumleaning him, but tbh the amount JeenLeen is playing seems NAI to me. Perfectly reasonable amount of posting and theorizing, it's just that everybody else is talking even less so he stands out by comparison.

I didn't understand a word of that, but okay. What does WIFOM stand for? I also don't really have paranoia for anyone.

EDIT

@JeenLeen, I must say, after reading your post a couple of times, I was thinking we should be teammates, but then a read-and-a-half later, I suddenly realized no, that's a dumb idea. What if he's the wolf?

I know it took an entire epiphany, but I'm voting JeenLeen

Maybe I'm just stupid, but he seems to have a pretty good grasp on 'I'm pretty sure xyz is the wolf,' which kinda seems to be suspicious to me. He also seems to be trying to put up a facade. Not saying I know that Jeen's the wolf, I just have my reasons (albeit they are stupid)

Townlean for asking publicly.

AV/half: 0 scum
BW/CCW: 0-1 scum
Jeen/Ill/Cae: 1-2 scum

possible teams

BW/Jeen
BW/Ill
BW/Cae
CCW/Jeen
CCW/Ill
CCW/Cae
Jeen/Ill
Jeen/Cae
Ill/Cae

I'm still leery of taking on Jeen/Illven for meta reasons, but since we're not in LYLO, I'm fine giving them a bit more time to play instead of pushing. that leaves Caedorus as the person who eliminates the most pairings, in my mind, and his behavior around the blade yeet was weird IMO.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean like I guess it's possible BW/CCW are slankwolfing but I don't really care to imagine a world where we're getting Luigi'd. If they win like that, kudos I guess.

- - - Updated - - -

One more thing before I switch off again: this is our last yeet to gain info. CCW is the wagon that yields the least info. Cae is voting CCW.

[JeenLeen]

AV makes some good points.

I hope to be back online for a bit tonight, and probably be online a little bit in the morning before Day ends.
But I feel like noting it's now corncobweb in the lead with 2 votes. If my assumption is right and he's town and there's 2 wolves, it's LYLO* D3. Voting him today is a bad move.
And, though not conclusive, that Caedorus and Illven are the two voting him... well, makes me feel a touch more confident about them being wolves.

On the other hand, votes do encourage folk to talk, so I get it. Just it's a bit disconcerting.
I would prefer AV join the Illven wagon, but I'll vote Caedorus because I don't want the lynch today to wind up being the silent player who I most townlean.

*for new player: I don't know what this actually stands for, but it's the state of game when we lynch a wolf or lose due to wolves outnumbering town and controlling the vote.

If Caedorus dies and flips town, I strongly lean Illven and AV as the wolves.

On controlling the narrative, AV has been giving meta reasons to protect Illven. Yeah, same to me, but D2 I'd think both of us should be reasonable targets, and I don't see why AV isn't reading Illven as suspicious.

---

In other words, to avoid lynching corncob, I'm willing to vote Caedorus.
I fear this is letting the wolves control the flow the game, but hopefully we can recover D3 and still win even if we mislynch today.

[Caedorus]

I'm a bit distracted with life but I've got some time for this game.

My immediate thoughts is that in a game this small, all it takes for wolves to win is to control the narrative. You get just a couple MLs and suddenly the game is over before anybody has a good grasp on what's happening. So like I guess I'd clear BW and CCW on that basic, right? Except there isn't anybody who has double-digit posts yet cuz everybody's checked out. There's not exactly anybody really powerwolfing here. The closest is JeenLeen if you squint, which is why the new guy is scumleaning him, but tbh the amount JeenLeen is playing seems NAI to me. Perfectly reasonable amount of posting and theorizing, it's just that everybody else is talking even less so he stands out by comparison.





Townlean for asking publicly.

AV/half: 0 scum
BW/CCW: 0-1 scum
Jeen/Ill/Cae: 1-2 scum

possible teams

BW/Jeen
BW/Ill
BW/Cae
CCW/Jeen
CCW/Ill
CCW/Cae
Jeen/Ill
Jeen/Cae
Ill/Cae

I'm still leery of taking on Jeen/Illven for meta reasons, but since we're not in LYLO, I'm fine giving them a bit more time to play instead of pushing. that leaves Caedorus as the person who eliminates the most pairings, in my mind, and his behavior around the blade yeet was weird IMO.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean like I guess it's possible BW/CCW are slankwolfing but I don't really care to imagine a world where we're getting Luigi'd. If they win like that, kudos I guess.

- - - Updated - - -

One more thing before I switch off again: this is our last yeet to gain info. CCW is the wagon that yields the least info. Cae is voting CCW.

AV makes some good points.

I hope to be back online for a bit tonight, and probably be online a little bit in the morning before Day ends.
But I feel like noting it's now corncobweb in the lead with 2 votes. If my assumption is right and he's town and there's 2 wolves, it's LYLO* D3. Voting him today is a bad move.
And, though not conclusive, that Caedorus and Illven are the two voting him... well, makes me feel a touch more confident about them being wolves.

On the other hand, votes do encourage folk to talk, so I get it. Just it's a bit disconcerting.
I would prefer AV join the Illven wagon, but I'll vote Caedorus because I don't want the lynch today to wind up being the silent player who I most townlean.

*for new player: I don't know what this actually stands for, but it's the state of game when we lynch a wolf or lose due to wolves outnumbering town and controlling the vote.

If Caedorus dies and flips town, I strongly lean Illven and AV as the wolves.

On controlling the narrative, AV has been giving meta reasons to protect Illven. Yeah, same to me, but D2 I'd think both of us should be reasonable targets, and I don't see why AV isn't reading Illven as suspicious.

---

In other words, to avoid lynching corncob, I'm willing to vote Caedorus.
I fear this is letting the wolves control the flow the game, but hopefully we can recover D3 and still win even if we mislynch today.

1) Lynch or Lose
2) My ccw vote is a pressure vote, I intend to change it. Currently I'm leaning Illven, AV or Jeen but I'm likely going to wait untill tomorrow. Seeing as it's 1am here rn.

[JeenLeen]

Reminder that, in a tie, the one first to the vote total dies.
There was talk of letting it rand D1, but Xi stated in opening rules -- or at least strongly implied such that I assume this means the same -- that it's first to the vote total.

In the event of a tie, common practice is to lynch whichever player reached that number of votes first.

[TheHalfAasimar]

Randomly, and totally out of the blue, I had a thought: if I were a wolf, I'd off myself immediately because of how beneficial I could be to everyone, because at this point everyone knows I'm not a wolf, which is one less player that's likely to get yeeted, and because of that, they'd have a good reason to get rid of me as soon as possible. Not only that, my deduction is decent, so I'm not totally useless and cannon fodder... Just sayin'. Not to mention, I'm a bad liar. A very bad liar, just gonna throw that out there.

[Caedorus]

Ok! I have slept!

Illven → Corncobweb
Jeenleen → AvatarVecna
Jeenleen → Illven
TheHalfAasimar → Jeenleen
Caedorus → Corncobweb
Jeenleen → Caedorus


Corncobweb 2: Illven, Caedorus
Jeenleen 1: TheHalfAasimar
Caedorus 1: Jeenleen

Jeen keeps talking about "the Illven wagon" which as of their own vote change does not exist anymore. I agree that aorn Corn is unlikely to be a wolf - or wolves are screwed if they are - and I don't want to vote myself so if I wanted to not start a new wagon I'd vote Jeenleen.
We still have some time left in the day though.
I'm fairly sure there's (at least) one wolf in Jeen/Illven. Right now, Illven looks like the better vote, seeing as Jeen is more active. But if Illven flips town Jeen is next on the accused stand.
If Illven flips wolf though, Jeen is pretty much towncleared? (paranoia sets in) Allthough it could be bussing... Throwing a suspicion, voting, changing vote before EOD...
But tbh I don't believe that.

- - - Updated - - -

Analysing yesterday's votes:

Spoiler: Yesterday's votes

Show

Snow → Blade
Book → Illven
Caedorus → Blade
TheHalfAasimar → Blade
Bladescape → Snow
Illven → Jeenleen
Avatarvecna → Snow
Jeenleen → Snowblaze
Bladescape → Illven
Caedorus → Book Wombat
Caedorus → Bladescape
Illven → Snowblaze


Bladescape 3: Snow, TheHalfAasimar, Caedorus
Illven 2: Book Wombat, Bladescape
Snowblaze 3: AvatarVecna, Jeenleen, Illven

Blade died, and Snow was NK'd. Both were town.
Let's first consider 2 wolves, as balance-wise that makes the most sense.
This puts a bit of suspicion on me and TheHalfAasimar, but also interesting is who voted Snow, namely both Illven and Jeen. Where are the wolves? Would, in a game with two wolves both vote the same wagon d1? If that is true the wagon (from my point of view) has to be the Snow wagon - since it seems unlikely the wolves would both vote off-lead-wagon when both lead wagons are town - unless I'm a wolf with TheHalfAasimar.
Actually come to think of it townpoints for Book here.
Actually I just realised this means that fmpov there is guaranteed at least one wolf in AV/Jeen/Illven and more likely 2, since Half is an unlikely candidate. But on the other hand from everyone else's pov this means that unless the wolves decided to both try to kill snow d1 I'm at least 50% sure a wolf.
Assuming we completely disregard Book/Ccw.
If there are three wolves we're f***ed. That would mean there are 7 players left with three wolves and one inactive. But that would also mean that town only got one misyeet before LYLO and that wouldn't be fair.

Conclusion: Book looks good, AV/Jeen/Illven look sus

[JeenLeen]

Illven

Not really anything new to add, but, yeah, Illven looks more suspicious than Caedorus.

If Illven flips wolf, I don't townclear Caedorus because a strong bus could carry one to endgame. But I'd go after AV first.

Reminder to self and others that we don't have a reason to trust Book Wombat. Just no reason to be suspicious either.

[Book Wombat]

Still here, going to go through the thread and see if anything pings. Slightly suspicious of JeenLeen for the fixation on corncobweb, but dunno. Will see if that develops into something more.

- - - Updated - - -

Upon further reading, something does feel wrong about Caedorus.

[Xihirli]

Hey all, I’m just finishing up a surprisingly long job interview; I’ll end the day once I’m home.

[Xihirli]

Actually. We will have a 24 hour extension because I know some of our players are being hit by power outage.

[AvatarVecna]

AV makes some good points.

I hope to be back online for a bit tonight, and probably be online a little bit in the morning before Day ends.
But I feel like noting it's now corncobweb in the lead with 2 votes. If my assumption is right and he's town and there's 2 wolves, it's LYLO* D3. Voting him today is a bad move.
And, though not conclusive, that Caedorus and Illven are the two voting him... well, makes me feel a touch more confident about them being wolves.

On the other hand, votes do encourage folk to talk, so I get it. Just it's a bit disconcerting.
I would prefer AV join the Illven wagon, but I'll vote Caedorus because I don't want the lynch today to wind up being the silent player who I most townlean.

[...]
In other words, to avoid lynching corncob, I'm willing to vote Caedorus.
I fear this is letting the wolves control the flow the game, but hopefully we can recover D3 and still win even if we mislynch today.

+Wolf.

You most townlean a player who's done nothing? Like yeah I'm townleaning him too cuz I figured townies are more likely to ghost the game than wolves, but most townleaned?? Luigi wins by doing nothing, amazing.

Your top two suspects are purely because they voted the player who's contributing the least? Yeah it gives the least info from his death, but it also robs town of the least effort. And it's not like there's a ton to go on for anybody. I'm also getting the willies from how it's not about who you want out, it's about how you just want CCW to keep playing. It makes me want to check you, tbh.

Illven

Not really anything new to add, but, yeah, Illven looks more suspicious than Caedorus.

If Illven flips wolf, I don't townclear Caedorus because a strong bus could carry one to endgame. But I'd go after AV first.

Reminder to self and others that we don't have a reason to trust Book Wombat. Just no reason to be suspicious either.

+Wolf

I don't like how much Jeen's vote flops around, or the I don't like how he's trying to tell us who needs to die next regardless of how Illven flips, as if he's already established head-of-town. I don't like how two people townleaned BW and now Jeen's trying to put him back on the table for consideration. I don't think we have much reason to trust BW, sure, but it's more than I have for most, and it's definitely more than I have for someone who isn't even here. I don't like how he tries to paint Caedorus as a busser when he's the one who's been hardcore pushing an Illven wagon all day.

JeenLeen

[TheHalfAasimar]

+Wolf.

You most townlean a player who's done nothing? Like yeah I'm townleaning him too cuz I figured townies are more likely to ghost the game than wolves, but most townleaned?? Luigi wins by doing nothing, amazing.

Your top two suspects are purely because they voted the player who's contributing the least? Yeah it gives the least info from his death, but it also robs town of the least effort. And it's not like there's a ton to go on for anybody. I'm also getting the willies from how it's not about who you want out, it's about how you just want CCW to keep playing. It makes me want to check you, tbh.



+Wolf

I don't like how much Jeen's vote flops around, or the I don't like how he's trying to tell us who needs to die next regardless of how Illven flips, as if he's already established head-of-town. I don't like how two people townleaned BW and now Jeen's trying to put him back on the table for consideration. I don't think we have much reason to trust BW, sure, but it's more than I have for most, and it's definitely more than I have for someone who isn't even here. I don't like how he tries to paint Caedorus as a busser when he's the one who's been hardcore pushing an Illven wagon all day.

JeenLeen

Hey, AV, thanks for putting my thoughts into words. That was probably my thought process when voting JeenLeen, thanks for being able to put it into a word format.

[JeenLeen]

Almost certain AV is a wolf now.
Not completely -- could be town and I've been too unconcerned about look towny -- but... well, reasoning below.

+Wolf.

You most townlean a player who's done nothing? Like yeah I'm townleaning him too cuz I figured townies are more likely to ghost the game than wolves, but most townleaned?? Luigi wins by doing nothing, amazing.

As I've been clear, and I think you haven't responded to, I think corncob is town because it seems impossible that he confirmed receipt of status to Xi.
It's a meta-reason, but it seems in line if, like, in the Fallout: New Vegas came someone claimed a name of a good NPC. We eventually learned wolves had names, and town had descriptors/roles, as their Role.

I get if you don't agree with my conclusion or my confidence in my conclusion, but that you don't seem to be acknowledging it makes me think you are a wolf trying to keep others from contemplating it.

Your top two suspects are purely because they voted the player who's contributing the least? Yeah it gives the least info from his death, but it also robs town of the least effort. And it's not like there's a ton to go on for anybody. I'm also getting the willies from how it's not about who you want out, it's about how you just want CCW to keep playing. It makes me want to check you, tbh.

That's not the entire reason. Two votes on corncob, in a situation like today where two votes might be the largest wagon, is strong. I imagined a scenario where wolf!Caedorus "forgot" to move his pressure-vote.

Illven's posts early D2 seem suspicious to me. I already stated why.
Caedorus kinda saved Illven D1. If Illven is a wolf, that makes Caedorus look iffy. Not strong evidence, but something.

I don't like how much Jeen's vote flops around, or the I don't like how he's trying to tell us who needs to die next regardless of how Illven flips, as if he's already established head-of-town. I don't like how two people townleaned BW and now Jeen's trying to put him back on the table for consideration. I don't think we have much reason to trust BW, sure, but it's more than I have for most, and it's definitely more than I have for someone who isn't even here. I don't like how he tries to paint Caedorus as a busser when he's the one who's been hardcore pushing an Illven wagon all day.

The flip-flop was 1) voted AV in part to get Illven talking, in part because I have light suspicion of you and wanted to see how you react and if others would jump on your wagon, 2) wanting to vote Illven, 3) voting Caedorus since nobody else was voting Illven, and then 4) voting Illven once she seemed a viable target.
I think I've been upfront about that.

I understand that "trying to tell us who needs to die next".
The main reason I stated that so strongly is that I think I'm likely to die this night. I (before just now) had little heat on me, and killing me gives no real intel on AV/Caedorus/Illven. Since I'm almost 100% one of the wolves in that trio, my death both eliminates someone suspicious of them and doesn't help the real townies solve which one is wolf.

Also, a large part of why I'm acting as confidently town as I am is because Snowblaze gave a very strong town read of me.
Or, well, I read it as very strong back then and during N1. Doesn't seem as strong in a reread:

Okay, Jeen is town.

Which isn't particularly helpful in the current situation.

This is (I think) the current votecount, with Illven in the lead since she reached two votes first:
Illven (2): Caedorus, JeenLeen
JeenLeen (2): TheHalfAasimar, AvatarVecna
Caedorus (1): BookWombat

- - - Updated - - -

To be more clear: the reason I think AV is wolf is because, if she were town, I think she would have realized why I was doing what I did and ackonwledged/responded to it instead of acting like I hadn't talked about the why.

[Illven]

I guess the biggest evidence for a wolf jeen world, is there eagerness to townlean a player that isn't voting. A non voting player is letting the wolves more easily control the narrative.

Which would also be a reason why voting for corn is a bad idea for wolves.

I don't know how I feel about Corn being a wolf though. Jeenlean has a point that unless Xi decided to say, discord send the wolves invitation links to chat, wolves would have needed to get them real early, since corncobweb hasn't been on in a week plus.

On the other hand. We have a replacement in kraken why hasn't Xi tapped that yet?

I know I'm not a wolf so. Jeen Lean