[WW/Mafia] Harem Comedy: "Busted!" Season One

[Murska]

Uh, I haven't backed away.

[JeenLeen]

I'm not opposed to a Xumtiil-lynch, but I also have thought for a while there's a wolf voider. Murska could be 100% honest in what he said about Night actions and still be a wolf.

I'd like to hear a more detailed claim from Zelphas. They already claimed neutral. I don't see a reason not to reveal more at this stage in the game, especially if it helps us ferret out who did what.

I really wish we knew who killed Taffimai.
Wait... maybe I can figure it out by process of elimination. There's some power claims private and public, and I know who has done some network actions. Maybe (assuming some honesty and no vortexer) I can figure out who could be a power role but hasn't claimed one. (If I figure this out, I probably won't state it publicly unless it helps resolve today's confusion.)

[Batcathat]

I'm not opposed to a Xumtiil-lynch, but I also have thought for a while there's a wolf voider. Murska could be 100% honest in what he said about Night actions and still be a wolf.

That is a good point (and would invalidate the towncred I gave for the hinting at information). We know town had a voider, Zelphas has claimed to be a neutral voider so the wolves having one would make a certain amount of sense. (That said, I had a lot of fun over people trying to find patterns that didn't exist in power disposition during my game, so we shouldn't read too much into it).

One upside to lynching Murska might be that we could probably clear blade if Murska flips wolf, I really don't think that was an intentional plan (or is that just what the wolves want us to think?).

[Murska]

If we're looking at a Wolf voider as well, then I think we definitely have several killers and probably other powerful roles about. No-one's made contact with me yet, so I'm presuming this town's rather light on VTs.

[bladescape]

Jeen may not like it but after clarifications I rescind my clearing of Illven.

To clarify, Jeen gave me some little info that combined with info I had from other sources suggested Illven was clear. Jeen has not explicitly admitted he lied to me but the implication of his responses is that he lied to me. Which I don't blame him for, lying to me as an attempt to gauge if I'm wolf is 100% okay.

I then tried to take full credit for the info in thread for obvious reasons.

Will need to ruminate on things.

[Lady Serpentine]

I am from the Olden Times, but I don't believe I have the sort of reputation that Blade or Murska have. I also don't know Taffimai particularly well, so I can't speak to who she'd have picked in particular.

Blade and Murska are potentially strong picks, but also easy mislynches. And I suspect that in a game where our lynches and NKs had been less odd, a town with Blade, Murska, and Snow would tear itself apart.

The really gutsy play would be something like Kraken/Illven and then I'm not sure who else who's alive is new enough to fly under the radar on grounds of nobody knowing them yet. Let the high-profile townies and people who know each other of old tear each other apart and then when it comes down to the wire nobody knows how to read anyone.

[JeenLeen]

Assuming I haven't been lied to, Zelphas didn't do it, and there's no vortexer, I have the "who could have killed Taffimai" down to three players. I've told, or basically told, those I'm networked with, but I want to keep it private for now.
bladescape and Illven have the list, if I die.
Those are pretty big assumptions anyhow.

I'll say more about Illven later if I feel a need, but the main wagon isn't on them, I don't want it on them, and I'm fine with folk discussing suspicion of them.

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It's interesting how many wagons have been being started by people going 'I don't trust this person! Now, let me vote for this other person because of what they said; I think they made some really good points.' Kind of feels like people trying to preemptively cover their asses because they're expecting a town flip.

Old post from D2, but Lady Serpentine: who were you referring to in this? You remember?

[Lady Serpentine]

That was in regards to Kraken.

[JeenLeen]

Read everything up to the current Day. Here's my thoughts. I know this posting is probably really annoying to read as I'm not quoting anything, but I'm too lazy/busy for that.

---

ISO time. I really prefer it when others take the time to do these, but they're spectators or the Narrator this game.
Well, I'm not actually doing ISOs, but I'm reading through the read.

Day 1 Reads
Post 108 - Xumtiil throws shade on Cazero. Also, based on my chat with her, I'm inclined to think Cazero is not wolf if Xumtiil flips wolf.
Post 121 - Taffimai votes Zelphas instead of me (after I got Innocent Child reveal). Defends me and Book Wombat. Doesn't exonerate Book Wombat (I think), but towncred to him.
Post 150 - bladescape votes Zelphas near day end. Pretty sure they aren't the same team.

Null Book Wombat, Murska, Lady Serpentine. Murska and Lady Serpentine were on townies, but so was basically everyone.
Don't like the feel of Cazero and Xumtiil in light of stuff. Nothing solid, just gut feeling.

Night 1

Post 162 - Taffimai requests Zelphas townsides. Something about this sounds odd in light of her flip. Trying to look townie? Set up shade on Zelphas for if she dies? I'll rule out chatting with a scumbuddy based on D1. WIFOM spiral to interpret this.

Lady Serpentine ups the heat on 3SC, albeit in a reasonable way.

I'm guessing Snowblaze was the vig/SK kill and Xihirli the wolf kill.

Day 2

169 - Xumtiil compliments Taffimai in a way I don't like based on her flip, but perhaps overbiased by heat on her today
173 - Xumtiil protects Book Wombat slightly? Useful if Xumtiil flips wolf.
177 - Cazero votes Murska. Could be wolf distancing, but D2 seems risky since no 3SC wagon has started heavy yet. I get a sense they aren't scumbuddies.
180 - Murska's reads on stuff. Sounds legit, could be less so. WIFOM makes hard to interrpet wolfishness.
184 - Murska pro-Illven. Null-Cezero. Makes argument that basically gets Persolus lynched.
186 - Taffimai pro-Murska more than most. Don't like that for Murska, but hard to interpret again.
NOTE: post 261: I think Murska is saying here that Taffimai might be setting him up via this post
203 - Taffimai tries to start a Kraken wagon. Dangerous to do for distancing. Seems good for Kraken.
205 - Xumtiil joins Kraken wagon. If Xumtiil is wolf, I think we can towncore Kraken.
212 - Taffimai stays on anti-Kraken
226 - I like this from Lady Serpentine, but I can't tell who it is casting shade at. Hence asking her.

Overall, I trust Kraken now. If Xumtiil flips wolf, moreso. Xumtiil looks worse, but nothing hard.
Don't think Cazero and Murska are on the same team.
Overall null on Murska and Lady Serpentine. Always null on Book Wombat.

Night 2 No Data

Day 3

First post: bladescape votes 3SC, but backs off after claim to Book Wombat on post 245.
250 - reminder that here foreword I think Xumtiil has been anti-bladescape. Not sure, could be distancing, but makes me think both likely aren't wolves.
255 - Lady Serpentine makes a strong anti-3SC post. But the reasoning is solid. Hard to tell if a wolf being bold or a townie using logic.
269 - if Xumtiil flips wolf, Murska looks a little better. But that's based on something not backed up via votes, so maybe it's distancing. WIFOM?
273 - Murska anti-BW, but no vote to back it up. Null? Useful if one flips wolf?
279 - Cazero joins the BW wagon. Pretty sure they both are not wolves.
280 - Xumtiil joins the 3SC wagon after BW started and kinda defends BW.
Soon after, Kraken and Zelphas also vote Book Wombat.

If Cazero is a wolf, BW isn't.
If BW is a wolf, Cazero, Kraken, and Zelphas are not.
If Xumtiil is a wolf, towncred to Murska and some suspicion on Book Wombat?
Hard to read anything solid on bladescape, Lady Serpentine, or Murska. WIFOM and everyone was mostly against the seer.

- - - Updated - - -

That was in regards to Kraken.

Looks a touch bad in that I trust Kraken, but also a legit complaint to stuff a few folk were saying back then so nothing really bad to Lady Serpentine.
The sincerity in the answer feels towny.

[Murska]

Brings back memories of the bad old times of townies hiding in secret quicktopics and being mysterious in the thread.

Okay, so Illven isn't clear. I've voided them twice, and both times, a kill has been missing, presuming the wolves didn't kill their own Alpha. That's my case on them.

I thought they were much more likely to be SK than a wolf, since they didn't show signs of being coached in wolf chat, but if that's true then I don't know what happened yesterday. However, apparently there are other ways for kills to disappear. Our Baner is dead, but I would like to know who Zelphas voided N2.

[JeenLeen]

Nothing new to share as a new literal day starts this Day, but I'll say a little bit pro-Illven.

I don't want to give away Illven's proof she's Town. It is solid proof, baring a severely bastardy move I don't think AV would do.
bladescape was puzzled because some stuff made it look like it was a complete fuzz, and the "lie" was that the thought the info I leaked by accident was leaked on purpose to mislead him in case he's a wolf. But sadly I wasn't being that devious and it was an incompetent info-leak.

---

Hey, Cazero. You spoke about Lovers D1. Do you want to claim? We know there's three wolves left, and it looks like Xumtiil is getting lynched today. If we can tie you to someone who isn't locktown and consider you both town, that could let us figure out who the three wolves are.
Normally I'd be against such a claim, but it might make it how we only have 4 "not (probably) know alignment" and, after lynching Xumtiil today, we'd know the wolves. (Assuming Zelphas is Survivor.)

- - - Updated - - -

And feel free to pass me the info via Xumtiil if you'd rather not talk publicly. If she does flip town, I can trust it was passed to me without distortion.

- - - Updated - - -

I thought they were much more likely to be SK than a wolf, since they didn't show signs of being coached in wolf chat, but if that's true then I don't know what happened yesterday. However, apparently there are other ways for kills to disappear. Our Baner is dead, but I would like to know who Zelphas voided N2.

I believe I was told Zelphas told someone he didn't do an action (beyond networking) N2. Though I'd like to hear it from Zelphas directly, as I don't completely trust my memory or that I didn't get my Nights muddled.

[Murska]

You say you have solid proof Illven is town? Then, are they a killing role? Should I keep voiding them? If not, who should I target?

It's really demotivating to solve when people keep referring to secret information.

[Batcathat]

You say you have solid proof Illven is town? Then, are they a killing role? Should I keep voiding them? If not, who should I target?

It's really demotivating to solve when people keep referring to secret information.

While I wasn't the one being asked, my suggestion would be BW (assuming Xum is lynched). Though that's only due to him being one of my current top wolf leans (after Xum and yourself), so suggestions based on anything more solid and specific should probably take precedent.

I do kind of agree about the second part, I generally prefer games where all communication (besides obvious exceptions like wolves, masons, etc) take place in the thread.

[JeenLeen]

You say you have solid proof Illven is town? Then, are they a killing role? Should I keep voiding them? If not, who should I target?

It's really demotivating to solve when people keep referring to secret information.

Please do not void Illven; it shouldn't help anything.
Book Wombat, Xumtiil, Lady Serpentine, bladescape, and (at least unless he answers my question well) Cazero are the ones I'd consider worth voiding. bladescape is last on that list (e.g., the one I trust most), mostly because he's the only one I'm networked with and he's been helpful networking me with others. Even if he is a wolf, he has an incentive to keep working with me (at least until the wolves decide to kill me) to keep towncred.

The reason for that list is that I consider myself, Batcathat, and Illven town, and I'd like the supposed-survivor Zelphas to be active.

[Cazero]

Hey, Cazero. You spoke about Lovers D1. Do you want to claim?

No twins here. I'm the sporty girl. One guess at what I do.

[JeenLeen]

I don't really trust Murska, but I also feel iffy about Xumtiil and her death might yield more info.
And if Murska is town, we want him around.

[Illven]

No twins here. I'm the sporty girl. One guess at what I do.

If you can beat Vecna in a shootoff you autowin the game?

[Batcathat]

I don't really trust Murska, but I also feel iffy about Xumtiil and her death might yield more info.
And if Murska is town, we want him around.

I'm a little split. On one hand, I mostly agree with this. On the other, I still feel like Xum might be a more likely SK than wolf and while catching a serial killer would be nice, a wolf would probably be more helpful.

That said, if Xum is still in the lead by the time I go to bed, I'll probably move my vote there to hopefully limit the risk of last minute wolf shenanigans.

It has also occurred to me that my speculations about only accounted for one neutral, while two (presumably an honest Zelphas and a serial killer) would change things around a little. Though even in the worst case scenario, I think it's still not LYLO today.

- - - Updated - - -

"Speculations about LYLO", that is.

[Murska]

If there is a SK, catching them is much better than catching one wolf, because it cuts the number of attempted anti-town nightkills in half. Which is why I've been hunting for one.

[Batcathat]

If there is a SK, catching them is much better than catching one wolf, because it cuts the number of attempted anti-town nightkills in half. Which is why I've been hunting for one.

Maybe, but I'm not so sure. Partially because catching a wolf can hopefully lead us to other wolves (and we're getting very close to where we can't afford to lynch a townie), partially because an SK can target wolves too (and with three wolves remaining, they probably should try to. An SK that's left with nothing but wolves is doomed, after all).

[JeenLeen]

Book Wombat or Zelphas, y'all want to add anything?

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(Feels like a long time 'til Night, even if it's just this evening. I'm bored and wanna stir things up.)

[Book Wombat]

Book Wombat or Zelphas, y'all want to add anything?

Not especially, just that I'm as confused as always.
I guess Xumtiil?

[Murska]

Maybe, but I'm not so sure. Partially because catching a wolf can hopefully lead us to other wolves (and we're getting very close to where we can't afford to lynch a townie), partially because an SK can target wolves too (and with three wolves remaining, they probably should try to. An SK that's left with nothing but wolves is doomed, after all).

That depends on their win con, doesn't it?

[Zelphas]

I believe I was told Zelphas told someone he didn't do an action (beyond networking) N2. Though I'd like to hear it from Zelphas directly, as I don't completely trust my memory or that I didn't get my Nights muddled.

I apologize for going radio silence; it was not my intention.

I used my void power for the first time last night, so I cannot claim to have stopped the wolves from killing on N2.

I have not killed anyone who has died so far; I cannot kill.

I am... much less attentive to this game than I should be, and for that I apologize. I'm keeping my vote very tentatively on Xumtiil. I will plan to check through as much of this as I can and post at least once more before EoD; I apologize if that does not happen.

[Batcathat]

That depends on their win con, doesn't it?

I suppose, though I can't think of anything resembling an SK that would do very well alone with the wolves. In any case, it's not like I'm opposed to busting a serial killer, it's something we have to do eventually at any rate and while their killing can benefit us, it can also screw us.

Anyhow, let's see what's hiding behind Xumtiil's lovely poems.

[Xumtiil]

I love the attention
I shall not tell a lie
But it wasn't my intention
For me to already die

Bonus Haiku:
This much is my truth
I'm not a killer, I swear
Only in my looks.

Bladescape

Ugh. Tough crowd. Just the way I like'm

[bladescape]

Book Wombat

Hm hm hm

[Murska]

Doesn't look like Illven's a thing. Counterwagon to see vote movements is a go. Book Wombat.

[Lady Serpentine]

The question of if an SK can do alright alone with wolves hinges primarily on if they can win with either side (or just wolves) or not; if they can, it's in their interests to target as few wolves as possible so that they end the game in a win for them both as fast as possible, before they get lynched or - if susceptible - hit by the NK, because trying to target wolves to push a town win is almost certainly going to be slower.

For instance, if the SK has a quota and wins so long as they killed that many people and survived, they want to reach that goal as fast as possible and then end the game as fast as possible thereafter. Since one NK (presumably) never hits wolves, hitting wolves slows the game down.

(If the SK has specific targets, things become more complicated. They still want to meet their goal and end the game as fast as possible, but it may be in their interests to slow the game down until they have met their goal, which is rarely going to be the case with a quota because that goal is much harder to fail.)

Now, moving on from that:

JeenLeen, can you please clarify what kind of mechanical basis you have for clearing Illven? Unless there is a second Seer (which for balance reasons I highly doubt, particularly as there should absolutely have been counterclaims to 3SC if so, particularly given it would presumably need a second fool) who you're in contact with, I'm not sure what reason you could have for it.

Chat creation was explicitly stated to not be proof of being a villager, she's not a second Innocent Child, and according to Murska she's been voided twice, which would make it very hard for her to have power results - not to mention that the only power I can think of that would provide demonstrable results takes us back to a second Seer, in this case, her. Unless you're proposing that she's a vigilante who killed Taffimai through a void, in which case, I question why she can't be a serial killer.

I'm going to vote Xumtiil for now, I guess, but this really stinks of you getting tricked by a wolf now that they know the Seer is dead.

[bladescape]

If Jeen isn't lying to me I can confirm it's actually pretty mech clearing lol.

Barring bastard mech.