Pelor the Burning Hate

[Valmark]

This is... Not great. We lost two townie and one of the power roles claimed for... What's the reason for the claim, Aleph?

I agree that Requilaq (I have no idea if I wrote it correctly) seems to have forgotten a possibility, though I'm willing to change my vote after an explanation. Regardless, even if Aleph was the SK we'd likely be better off lynching someone else- the SK is a threat that can be easily snuffed out once found, meanwhile the Cult keeps growing until we cut the head of the snake off.

[Requilac]

I think the more relevant figure is that based on what we know, there's eight people the Cult Leader could have attempted to convert (12 players minus three dead ones and the CL themselves) and eight that the Healer could have protected (12 players minus one that was already dead, two that died and the Healer themselves). Out of these there's eight pairings which involve the SK (who couldn't be converted) and six matches which involve the CL's target getting blocked. Subtract one for the case where the SK got targeted by the CL and the Healer somehow and you have a 13/81 = 16% chance for the current ratio to be 7:1:1 vs. a 84% chance for the ratio to be 6:2:1. That's nearly double the odds.

Ah yes, I forgot, the healer's attempts block a conversion as well as a kill in this version. That does change things. Still, odds are that a second cultist is out there.

You're forgetting a possibility, which is that I am the vigilante, and know that therefore the SK killed cap by process of elimination.
Requilac, you have been suspicious to me since day 1, but your response here confirms your affiliation in my book.

Well, because he told me to kill someone. I hadn't been planning on it, but he accused me and then said that, so I thought it would be thematically pleasing and also because I thought his behavior was a tad scummy.

EDIT: Yes, that is my claim

That was an important part of the equation I neglected to include. If Null's claim is true, it could just as well mean Town Guard as Serial Killer. As much as I don't like a Serial Killer in the field, risking kill the guard isn't worth it.

Now Null could be lying to take the heat off of a town power role, but in that case he would be sacrificing himself for the better of the town, so it's the exact opposite of Cult behavior. Given the Cult's strategy, a vanilla Cultist trying to take a blow for the Cult Leader would be a very bad idea, and one they probably would not take.

Null could be Cult, but his behavior so far indicates the opposite of that. I wouldn't advise anyone to vote for him.

So back to the drawing board.

The two people who died were the most quiet, so that doesn't give us much to work with. However, power roles tend to be quiet while still being involved in the game. Even if what one says is helpful, talking much makes one bigger in the conscience of people when deciding their lynch votes, so for power rules it is usually wise to lie low. Many vanilla townies would feel a lot more comfortable speaking up because it would be better for them to risk lynching than a town power role. Now a power role isn't necessarily a Cult member, but the Cultists are by definition power roles, so targeting them narrows it down some.

Caoimhim, Grek, Null, and Valmark have spoken too much to be power rules. AvatarVecna and the Outsider are getting auto-lynched anyway, so that's not going to help much. I guess that leaves us with Elenna and Book Wombat then as the most likely to be Cult Leader? I will go with Book Wombat, as Caoimhim has already done. At this point I know more of who I don't want to vote for than who I do want to. Anyone have any better ideas?

[Valmark]

Given the Cult's strategy, a vanilla Cultist trying to take a blow for the Cult Leader would be a very bad idea, and one they probably would not take.

Caoimhim, Grek, Null, and Valmark have spoken too much to be power rules. AvatarVecna and the Outsider are getting auto-lynched anyway, so that's not going to help much. I guess that leaves us with Elenna and Book Wombat then as the most likely to be Cult Leader? I will go with Book Wombat, as Caoimhim has already done. At this point I know more of who I don't want to vote for than who I do want to. Anyone have any better ideas?

Why the Cultist without power taking a hit for the Cultist with a power is a bad idea?

And why is AV getting auto-lynched?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So, after that claim, we'll assume Aleph is being truthful about being the Guard, unless someone else comes forward with a claim. It is true that Aleph could have been converted, but I don't think it's super likely.

As Valmark mentioned, I don't think AV is set to autolynch, just Outsider. Aside from that... most people have chimed in and I don't have much more to go on right now.

---

Vote Count:
The Outsider (1): Grek
Book Wombat (2): CaoimhinTheCape, Requilac
Requilac (2): Aleph Null, Valmark

Not Voting: Elenna
No Posts: AvatarVecna, The Outsider, Book Wombat

[Elenna]

Thinking I'll join the wagon on Book Wombat for now.

No reason to assume Aleph is lying about being the guard (although I would like an explanation for why they claimed in the first place, because it seems like a bad idea for town). A cultist wouldn't have any particular reason to risk a counter-claim.

Requilac's logic about Aleph being the SK was obviously incorrect, but it was so obviously incorrect that I'm sure Requilac genuinely didn't realize Aleph was claiming Guard. Cultists don't generally draw attention to themselves by making easily disprovable arguments. Of course, cultists can make honest logic errors just as well as town can, so, not alignment indicative either way.

Outsider is probably going to autolynch, no point in voting for them. AV may or may not be able to stay active enough not to auto, but unless they specifically ask to leave the game, I feel bad voting for them when they aren't around to defend themselves.

Grek, Caoimhin, and Valmark are all vaguely in the category of "fairly talkative, some analysis, haven't seen much that is super indicative either way mostly because there hasn't been much to analyze". Might go back and see if I can find any clues in their posts later, but for now I'd like to hear what BW thinks of the current events.

[Requilac]

Why the Cultist without power taking a hit for the Cultist with a power is a bad idea?

Maybe I should rephrase that: it wouldn't always be a bad idea for the Cult if a Cultist were to attract attention to themself away from the Cult Leader, it just is in this case. At this point very few people's opinions are certain at this point and wagons are constantly shifting. No one at this point is particularly under an enormous amount of suspicion. The Cult needs a decent amount more people on its side to win the game, and given how there are at most two cultists in the field, it would really set the Cult behind if one of its two members decided to sacrifice themself. Maybe a Cultist might be willing to sacrifice themself if the Cult Leader is "under fire", but right now no one is at a major risk, so the Cultist sacrificing themself now wouldn't serve much of a purpose. A vanilla townie however in this case would benefit the town by sacrificing themself, because currently 4/9 of the people in play are town power roles, so there would be a big chance that if the vanilla townie didn't distract the town's attention that they may get lynched.

And why is AV getting auto-lynched?

He did vote for himself on day one and said he had bigger things to be concerned about than the game. I would guess that someone who openly says they can no longer play would soon be auto-lynched, because they wouldn't be active enough to not get auto-lynched. Now maybe that wouldn't occur until the next day and not today, but still doesn't change the fact that there isn't much use in offing a character that isn't doing anything.

[JeenLeen]

Autolynch Rule: I was planning on no autolynches, but if someone formally drops out, they will autolynch. However, AV hasn't formally dropped out. While I think she's being honest that she's stuck in the ice storm and power outages in Texas, and unlikely to play, I won't 100% trust what she says unless it's explicit and probably in the QuickTopic to me.
Also, she might get power and want to start playing again.
AV often votes herself D1, so that in itself means little.

So: no autolynches. BUT if someone does seem completely inactive for several days, that will factor into when the last day is. E.g., if it's 3 cult vs 3 town, but one townie is completely inactive, that cult autowins since they effectively control.

While I'm clarifying: the game ends when a faction (cult, town, or serial killer) has effectively won the game. That is, while others might still exist, there's no chance for one faction to not lose. This is pretty obvious when it's cult/mafia vs. town, but the serial killer throws a wrench into it. (As, to a lesser degree, does a vigilante.) So the game probably won't end while a NKer is still active unless it's like 2 cult vs. the serial killer.


Further clarification: on those notes, The Outsider also will not autolynch.

EDIT: see post further down for possibly revising autolynch rules

[Valmark]

Mmm... I'm mostly fine with a lynch on BW so I'm going to pressure Aleph Null on the why for the claim- I'm not really seeing many reasons to vote Requilaq at this time, nor anybody else tbh.

It doesn't help that out of all of us two of those that usually have enough presence are currently seemingly absent.

[Aleph Null]

Mmm... I'm mostly fine with a lynch on BW so I'm going to pressure Aleph Null on the why for the claim- I'm not really seeing many reasons to vote Requilaq at this time, nor anybody else tbh.

It doesn't help that out of all of us two of those that usually have enough presence are currently seemingly absent.

3 key Reasons:
(1) Impulse,
(2) Not wanting to die,
(3) I'm bad at this game and have no clue what I'm doing.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Trying to think through if there's a reason for Cultist!Guard to claim (if Aleph was converted N1), I'm not sure how much it helps. It just paints a target on the Guard's back 2 nights from the claim (assuming our Healer protects a claimed townie tonight) but leaves him open on Night 3 (cause of the Healer rules). If SK was dead maybe that would be a helpful move, but not sure that it does much for Cult to claim right now. So, I'm gonna guess Aleph is still town.

So: no autolynches. BUT if someone does seem completely inactive for several days, that will factor into when the last day is. E.g., if it's 3 cult vs 3 town, but one townie is completely inactive, that cult autowins since they effectively control.

Further clarification: on those notes, The Outsider also will not autolynch.

Someone formally dropping out makes sense. For the record, I'm sure AV's lack of posting is due to real life stuff, that's not a problem.

But it is a problem if we have Outsider who hasn't posted at all, AV with little access, and Book Wombat who hasn't posted at all today. If we keep them around, then that's a good number of people we can't trust to put down a vote.

If we can't rely on those 3 votes, we effectively have a 6 player game with 1 SK and 1-2 Cultists. If the game doesn't end Day 3, then Town doesn't have much they can do and the game is Cult vs SK. I'd want to clear out the people who aren't participating through lynches but we don't have time for that.

No reason to assume Aleph is lying about being the guard (although I would like an explanation for why they claimed in the first place, because it seems like a bad idea for town). A cultist wouldn't have any particular reason to risk a counter-claim.

Grek, AvatarVecna, The Outsider, and Book Wombat haven't posted since the official claim so any of them can counter claim, but I agree with Elenna that there isn't much reason for someone to fake claim guard this early.

Mmm... I'm mostly fine with a lynch on BW so I'm going to pressure Aleph Null on the why for the claim- I'm not really seeing many reasons to vote Requilaq at this time, nor anybody else tbh.

It doesn't help that out of all of us two of those that usually have enough presence are currently seemingly absent.

I don't like this vote? To shake things up, I'm going to vote Valmark for voting a town power role that hasn't been counter claimed?? Unless someone else claims Guard, we can be sure that Aleph started the game as Town. Even at the worst case (if Aleph was converted to Cult) he would still be shooting to try and hit the SK (the Cult's main enemy).

Do you plan on sticking with that vote?

---

Vote Count:
The Outsider (1): Grek
Book Wombat (2): Requilac, Elenna
Requilac (1): Aleph Null
Aleph Null (1): Valmark
Valmark (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting:
No Posts: AvatarVecna, The Outsider, Book Wombat

[Valmark]

Kinda? The reasons for claiming are... Not what I expected, especially since Aleph "risked" death only because of the claim. Not only that but there isn't anything I can actually do with it- I could put a vote on Outsider or Requilaq but I don't particularly want to lynch either of them over BW (of anything I'd rather not lynch the latter because they've at least been active).

I would move it if Aleph risked lynching, but I don't think that's the case.

Besides, they haven't been counter claimed but they also haven't gained anything (at least apparently) from claiming so it's not much less suspicious. If anything it could be on purpose to bait the real Guard out.

[Book Wombat]

I might forget to post once in a while due to school. Should be able to post at least once every Day though.
I'm town, not much else to say. No vote for today since I dunno who to vote for.

[JeenLeen]

LOGISTICS NOTE
The weekends are often harder for me to post exactly on time, since I'm not at a computer for work.
I should be able to end the Day at roughly 2 pm Saturday for Day's End. It might vary +/- an hour, depending on kids
Weather-permitting, my family and I are visiting a monastery Sunday afternoon, so I may wind up ending Night 2 either an hour or two or so early (before we leave) or a few hours late (after we get home). It shouldn't be super-late like D1 was, though. If everyone gets their Night actions in early, I might end it early just to make sure it gets ended on Sunday, but it'll still be the normal 2 pm Day End for Day 3.

ON AUTOLYNCHES
I get the point about wanting an autolynch, but there's also the Guard and Serial Killer who can help eliminate people. Eh. I guess I'll put it to a vote. Anyone who cares, please post in your QuickTopic if you'd like autolynches or not. That'll help me count the votes accordingly and let you lie about your opinion publicly, if you want to lie. Please submit votes (again, in QT) by the end of Day.

New Autolynch Rule to Propose: if someone goes two full Day/Night cycles without posting, they autolynch at Day's start. A post must be public, e.g., no just posting in your QT.
E.g., The Outsider will die at the start of D3, if they haven't posted.

[AvatarVecna]

I've not lost power a single time despite all the recent nonsense, but given how things have been going that could change at any minute. WW/Mafia tends to be a very time-/energy-intensive activity for me, and right now my priorities are making sure I can drop everything to take care of my family should the situation arise that such a thing becomes necessary, and preparing for in case it does. In particular making sure we have food supplies has gotten harder than expected, although we're still doing fine.

By the time I can dedicate my attention to this game, I'll be so far behind that I can't meaningfully contribute, at least not in an informed way. Thus far, it's looking like the most useful thing I can do for town is just show up and vote myself, to avoid influencing the vote in a bad way, but also to avoid autolynching out and making town lose an extra townie for no good reason.

Posting this in my QT as well so at least the narrator knows it's not a scheme.

[Elenna]

One possibility that occurs to me, Aleph could theoretically be the High Priest who converted the real guard last night and claimed to avoid suspicion while he converts people. In that case he wouldn't have to worry about a counterclaim. This would only really be a good move if the real guard was significantly less likely to be lynched than Aleph was, and I don't think anyone is looking that towny right now. Doesn't seem super likely, but it's possible.

Kinda? The reasons for claiming are... Not what I expected, especially since Aleph "risked" death only because of the claim. Not only that but there isn't anything I can actually do with it- I could put a vote on Outsider or Requilaq but I don't particularly want to lynch either of them over BW (of anything I'd rather not lynch the latter because they've at least been active).

I would move it if Aleph risked lynching, but I don't think that's the case.

Besides, they haven't been counter claimed but they also haven't gained anything (at least apparently) from claiming so it's not much less suspicious. If anything it could be on purpose to bait the real Guard out.

Hmm, my initial thought was "trading a cultist for a vig would be a bad move for cult" but actually maybe not? To decrease the number of cult, town needs to lynch a cultist AND either NK a cultist or have the Healer block the conversion. Otherwise cukt can just replace lynched cultists during the night. If the vig dies, town is almost entirely reliant on the Healer successfully guessing the conversion target, since the SK can't be counted on to aim at cult. If vig is converted, things are even worse for town.
So actually I could maybe see cult fake claiming to find the real Guard? I still think it's more likely tyat Aleph is town, though, especially given the lack of a counterclaim so far.

Regardless, I don't like Valmark's "if Aleph is actually in danger of being lynched I'll move" statement. What's the point of voting Aleph if you don't actually want him to be lynched? Isn't this essentially no vote?

- - - Updated - - -

I might forget to post once in a while due to school. Should be able to post at least once every Day though.
I'm town, not much else to say. No vote for today since I dunno who to vote for.

The usual questions: are there any arguments you agree with? don't agree with? are confused by? Anything you want to ask anyone? Anyone you consider even slightly more or less trustworthy than anyone else?

No offense, but if you can't contribute anything beyond "I'm town" (which is pretty much a meaningless statement, anyone would say that), there's basically no reason for me to move my vote off you. I'm considering moving my vote to Valmark, because of what I said above and the fact that he's voting for an uncounterclaimed town PR, but I'd like to hear something more from you (Book Wombat) first.

[Valmark]

One possibility that occurs to me, Aleph could theoretically be the High Priest who converted the real guard last night and claimed to avoid suspicion while he converts people. In that case he wouldn't have to worry about a counterclaim. This would only really be a good move if the real guard was significantly less likely to be lynched than Aleph was, and I don't think anyone is looking that towny right now. Doesn't seem super likely, but it's possible.

Hmm, my initial thought was "trading a cultist for a vig would be a bad move for cult" but actually maybe not? To decrease the number of cult, town needs to lynch a cultist AND either NK a cultist or have the Healer block the conversion. Otherwise cukt can just replace lynched cultists during the night. If the vig dies, town is almost entirely reliant on the Healer successfully guessing the conversion target, since the SK can't be counted on to aim at cult. If vig is converted, things are even worse for town.
So actually I could maybe see cult fake claiming to find the real Guard? I still think it's more likely tyat Aleph is town, though, especially given the lack of a counterclaim so far.

Regardless, I don't like Valmark's "if Aleph is actually in danger of being lynched I'll move" statement. What's the point of voting Aleph if you don't actually want him to be lynched? Isn't this essentially no vote?

No offense, but if you can't contribute anything beyond "I'm town" (which is pretty much a meaningless statement, anyone would say that), there's basically no reason for me to move my vote off you. I'm considering moving my vote to Valmark, because of what I said above and the fact that he's voting for an uncounterclaimed town PR, but I'd like to hear something more from you (Book Wombat) first.

That's actually a dangerous possibility. I feel like the chances of that having happened are higher then I think.

Cultist can "regenerate" while drawing out a power role allows for the chance of catching them, so I kinda think losing a cultist for the chance of gaining the Fanatic would be a good gamble.

Keep in mind that when I voted Aleph I was pressuring them with a question- I wasn't voting Aleph for suspicion. I never actually tried to get them lynched.

[Elenna]

Keep in mind that when I voted Aleph I was pressuring them with a question- I wasn't voting Aleph for suspicion. I never actually tried to get them lynched.

Sure, yeah, but he answered your question and you're still voting him...

[Requilac]

Fun observation I recently had: more of us at this point would have a power role than not have one. There are still six power roles in play, but only nine players. We can safely assume AV was a vanilla townie, because he would probably mention he had a power role in his parting comment, in order to help the town as much as possible. And one of the vanilla townies could have become cult, which is actually a more likely outcome than any as a result of the Cult Leader's actions. Aside from AV, who can't be active for stated reasons, probably only 1 or 2 of us are vanilla townies. Not quite sure how that changes thing, but it is an uncommon dynamic.

I might forget to post once in a while due to school. Should be able to post at least once every Day though.

I'm town, not much else to say. No vote for today since I dunno who to vote for.

Voting for no one at all is pretty suspicious behavior. The lynch vote is one of the best tools that the town has combat the cult. A cultist would certainly benefit from not participating in the vote or contributing to the conversation, as it would make the town even less certain on what to do.

Book Wombat could really just be busy and this isn't a front at all, of course. But given how the only information we have to work on at this moment is vague and unsolid, deciding to lynch one of the least active people isn't a bad idea. And as I stated earlier, Cult Leader would certainly be laying low, so that is another reason. This only confirms my suspicion on him.

[Valmark]

Sure, yeah, but he answered your question and you're still voting him...

Well yeah, like I said I neither like Aleph's reasons (although to be fair this is probably me expecting something else) nor do I have anywhere in particular to move it. The only thing I could do is make a 2 votes wagon on somebody else which would make the result of the lynch random, which... I have no interest in.

[Grek]

Catching up, I am baffled by Aleph Null's decision, but I can't see a good reason why a SK or a Cultist would make a fake-claim that looks like this. So absent any superior evidence, I'm going to reluctantly accept that our vigilante is a newbie player and made a poor D2 play. Normally it would be a bad idea to narrow down the number of players this early, given that there was a less than 25% chance of actually helping with that kill. But what's done is done, so we'll just have to live with it.

What concerns me more is the auto-lynch question: I'm of two minds there. On one hand, the same 'narrowing down' issue exists where if we lynch someone today, 2 people get NK'd and then two people are non-posting, we're down to 4 active players going into D3. That doesn't seem like much of a game. But it's not as if auto-lynching them is going to help with that so...? I dunno.

The person I'm currently most suspicious of is actually Valmark, as voting for Aleph Null right after the vig claim (saying it was 'for pressure') and then not retracting that vote after the pressure was successfully applied seems like the real goal might just be to actually kill the vigilante.

While we're engaging in wild speculation, I'd also like to note that Elenna was the driving force between today's Book Wombat vote (which I don't really grok the logic of) AND of yesterday's Xihirli vote (which I understand more, but was still basically random). Combined with her coming up with a weird theory justifying Aleph Null as being the High Priest who converted the Vigilante in order to fake-claim Vigilante (why would the CL even do that; there's no reason to claim any power role today?), followed by Valmark backing it up, followed by Elenna distancing from Valmark makes me think Elenna for CL and Valmark for N1 convert. I don't think that very strongly (I did say it was wild speculation, after all!), but screw it, it's a better use of my vote than Outsider.

[Valmark]

Well, now I do have a reason. Book Wombat.

(The reason being self-defence, of course).

It's a bit soon to worry about being voted but I might not be around tomorrow evening (my time evening, which is when Day ends) so I'd rather vote ahead of time.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Hmmm. I don't like Book Wombat not putting a vote down but if I'm honest, my instinct is that a Cultist or SK would want to vote someone, especially if they were on the block. I don't mind a Book Wombat lynch, but I'll keep my vote on Val for the moment. He did say the Aleph vote was for pressure but still.

On the topic of the vig, I'm going to put it out there that I want Vig to shoot again tonight. I think there's enough helpful targets for the Vig. If we're at the worst case and Vig is already part of the Cult, the Leader won't get a chance to convert while their Vig kills.

---

Vote Count:
Book Wombat (3): Requilac, Elenna, Valmark
Requilac (1): Aleph Null
Valmark (2): CaoimhinTheCape, Grek

Not Voting: AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
No Posts: The Outsider

[Elenna]

While we're engaging in wild speculation, I'd also like to note that Elenna was the driving force between today's Book Wombat vote (which I don't really grok the logic of) AND of yesterday's Xihirli vote (which I understand more, but was still basically random). Combined with her coming up with a weird theory justifying Aleph Null as being the High Priest who converted the Vigilante in order to fake-claim Vigilante (why would the CL even do that; there's no reason to claim any power role today?), followed by Valmark backing it up, followed by Elenna distancing from Valmark makes me think Elenna for CL and Valmark for N1 convert. I don't think that very strongly (I did say it was wild speculation, after all!), but screw it, it's a better use of my vote than Outsider.

The logic behind Book Wombat is basically just "they haven't said much or been very helpful and I don't see any particularly better options". I'm thinking about switching to Valmark, I was just hoping to hear more from BW first.
(Also I'm surprised to hear I'm the "driving force" behind that lynch? I put one vote on BW with vague "don't want to vote anyone else and he's quiet" reasoning, and then responded to his post. I'd hardly call that pushing for his lynch.)

The Priest!Aleph theory is based on the possibility that the High Priest might want to fake-claim a power role in order to lower their chances of being lynched. I don't think it would be a good decision on Priest!Aleph's part, but then I don't think Guard!Aleph should have claimed, either, so it's not like we can rule out bad decisions.
That being said, maybe I didn't make this clear enough in my earlier post, but it's not a theory that I think is at all likely. It's just that I was thinking about "why in the world would cult fake-claim vig" and that was one possibility I came up with. Also I'm pretty sure Valmark was backing the "cultist fake-claiming to draw out the real vig" theory, not the high priest theory. I don't think that one is particularly likely either, though, if only because nobody has actually counterclaimed.

[Elenna]

Meh, Valmark. BW probably isn't going to be back and there's a decent chance I'll sleep in till after EOD anyways.

[JeenLeen]

Day 2 Ends

Valmark: Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape, Grek
Book Wombat: Valmark, Requilac
Requilac: Aleph Null

As the day nears it end, some uncertainty arises. One person claims to be the town guard, and that there must be a murderer lose in the village. Others appear to be unusually quiet, and some ponder if they are even still in the village. It is unclear who will meet the knives and pitchforks today, but eventually they settle on a person saying he's not sure who should die. But at the last minute decide to kill someone else anyway.

Valmark was lynched. He was a [color=green]vanilla town[/color.]

Night 2 Begins and Will End Roughly 2 pm (or at least sometime that evening) Sunday 2/21

Autolynch Rules: you autolynch if publicly inactive for two full Day/Nights. The Outsider will autolynch if he does not post before Day breaks.

[JeenLeen]

Not sure when I'll get online tomorrow around game Day's official start, so I'm going to go ahead and post since everyone got night actions in. I hope this gives no offense, but it avoids me giving offense to the family, so, yeah.

Night 2 Ends

People are more guarded this night, but there are the same sounds of outbursts of violence and people moving in secret.
When day breaks, again, two are found dead. But one of them has a distorted holy symbol of Pelor and notes scribbled about the villagers and their weaknesses.

Also, poking around, people discover The Outsider's corpse in his toolshed. It looks long dead.

Grek died. She was the Prophet, cult. She was originally the Elder.
Book Wombat died. He was vanilla town.
The Outsider auto-lynched. He was vanilla town

Day 3 Begins and Will End Tuesday 2/23 at 2 pm

[Elenna]

On the bright side, yay, a dead cultist! (I'm guessing that was the SK kill?) On the dark side, no seer.

@JeenLeen: If the cult targets someone for conversion and that person dies the same night, will they be reported as cult, or town?

Asking because I'm wondering if Grek was definitely the N1 conversion, or if they might have been converted last night. Hopefully we can find some clues in what they were saying yesterday.

[Requilac]

Aleph Null, do you mind telling us which one of those people you killed?

Okay so there are five of us left: Aleph Null, AvatarVecna, Caoimhim, Elenna, and myself. Currently there are four power roles in play: healer, guard, serial killer, and priest.

We know that AV can't be the guard, serial killer, or priest, because each of those roles having been taking night actions (Grek couldn't have been converted if priest wasn't acting), which AV wouldn't do. Cult could have converted them, but converting an inactive player set up for an autolynch would be an extremely bad decision. Meaning AV is either a vanilla townie or healer.

Which means that among the four of us of Aleph Null, Caoimhim, Elenna and Myself there is at least a guard, serial killer, and priest still active, with the fourth either being either the healer or a vanilla townie. The high priest had two nights to take action, so that means that either (a) only the high priest is representing the cult at this moment or (b) there is another cultist in this mix.

Aleph Null has presented an uncontested town power role claim, so lynching him would be a bad idea. Lynching AV would be pointless as well, because he definitely isn't the Cult Leader and the chances of him being a vanilla Cultist are very low. Caoimhim has been very helpful with both analysis and keeping the lynch vote tally, which is unusually helpful behavior for a wolf. I guess I am voting for Elenna then? It's not that she has done anything that seems especially wolfy, it's more that she has done the least things to seem towny. Elenna did provide some good insight, but not until the later stages and not as much analysis as Caimhim, and she hasn't been keeping the vote tally.

I am not overly confident in this vote though. Anyone have a better idea?

[Elenna]

Caoimhim has been very helpful with both analysis and keeping the lynch vote tally, which is unusually helpful behavior for a wolf.

Caoimhin provides vote tallies in every game, IIRC, it's not indicative either way. Can't really comment on whether they're doing more analysis than me, I don't recall exactly, but I promise I'm not cult

Took a quick look at Grek's posts, they're annoyingly unhelpful. It might be worth noting that Grek threw a bit of shade at me with that theory about Valmark and I distancing, which I think should be considered evidence that I'm not a wolf, although I suppose you could interpret it as distancing...

Anyways, yeah, looking at the remaining five players:

• Aleph Null is almost certainly the guard. N1, Captain Cap created a QT between Aleph Null and I. He told me privately last night that he was going to kill Book Wombat. I guess it's technically still possible that Aleph converted the real guard N1 and Grek was actually the N2 convert?? Or Aleph could have randomly guessed correctly about the guard target, although why cult!Aleph would take that risk is beyond me (he volunteered the info, I didn't ask for it). But it seems way more likely that he was the real guard yesterday. He could have been converted during the night, of course, but he's at least not the high priest.
  
• I'm not convinced that AV isn't putting in night actions. They're coming on once a day, they could be submitting night actions in advance while they're online. But it does seem more likely that they're healer or VT. I could maybe see AV as the serial killer, since putting in actions in advance is probably easier if you don't care who you kill?

Belated realization - if Aleph and AV are both neither the SK or the High Priest, then both those roles must be within me, Caoimhin, or Requilac. I know I'm not either role, so from my POV, lynching either of them is good for town. (Unless AV is being sneakier/more engaged than I think they are...)

Not going to say if I'm the healer or not because I don't want cult to know if the healer is active.

I'll try to reread Caoimhin and Requilac's posts sometime today and figure out which one I want to vote for.

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Was trying to figure out if we should aim for the High Priest or the SK today, but there are too many possibilities for how the next night/day could go and I'm too sleepy to work through them. It's probably an academic question anyways, I'm not sure town has enough information to accurately figure out which player is which.

That being said, @JeenLeen, could you confirm if the High Priest can convert on the night they die?

...oh wait, crap, forgot the High Priest had one-time immunity. Yeah, town is still is a good deal of trouble... Hopefully we hit the Priest today and Aleph can NK them? Assuming Aleph hasn't been converted, of course.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, so. There's 5 of us left, and the assessment of roles is correct. One of the town roles could have been converted, depends on the healer's picks/cults conversion choices.

Vanilla Town
Healer
Guard - Aleph Null
SK
Priest


I don't think Aleph should be up for lynch today. He is confirmed to not be the SK or Priest, so he could only be a convert N1. Even if that was the case, we have bigger targets to focus on.

AV could still be a power role, being able to submit night actions and post in thread just enough to not be autolynched. I really don't know how to judge this. AV would be here if she could so it's not a strategy or anything. I'm going to suggest that we don't lynch AV.

So that leaves it down to Caoimhin, Requilac, and Elenna as a lynch choice for today. I'll look over the thread myself, but I'd mostly like to hear from Alpeh on who they think should be lynched, seeing as they are (currently) most likely to be town.

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Right, I was gonna do out some math but I think we need to go after the Priest today.

If we get SK we'd have a slim chance of Day 4 coming around with 3 Town vs 1 Cult. Most likely we go in with 2 Town vs 2 Cult so Town is leaving it up to RNG to determine if town has any shot.

If we get Cult Leader, we have 5 people going into Night with an SK kill, Guard kill, and Cult conversion. Lots of stuff can happen there and there's a specific piece of this I need to think over, but even with the extra kill, Town and SK need to work together to get ride of the Cult right now.

So, if SK wants to claim I'm good with that plan I legitimately will not lynch you.