Witch Hunt!

[Apogee1]

Well

I normally don't like doing it but by late game for sure we are going to be having to worldbuild.

So here is my very loose Bunny/JeenLeen associative read which would mean Valmark is town.

Now I don't really know if Valmark is town

I might sheep snowblaze there again if she gets a read.

And he has had kind of scummy moments.

But I really doubt that we have scum up to a 4 vote wagon d1 in this format where distancing is practically not necessary and scum can open(closed?)-wolf with impunity

[Valmark]

If we vote no lynch and leave it in the judge's hand it gives a slight advantage to the townies. If we vote and hit the judge then we lose a villager and get closer to losing. If we let the judge make the choice, we could still hit the villager but the playing the odds and the number we have a better chance of hitting a witch with wolf. So for this first round at least, I'm more then okay with letting the judge trust their instinct, or not kill someone and we move onto the next night.

Yes, though as already discussed just leaving it to NL is pretty harmful- voting without reaching the majority is more useful and produces the same result.

[Apogee1]

Yeah, the VH should definitely be pretending to be a role that actually does something. I do love the flavour of the role, though (that role PM!).

---

And yes, judge should do something, though it only now occurs to me how odd it is that the general advice for mafia is that town should always lynch but vigilantes should only shoot if they're sure. I suppose it's because vigilantism doesn't generate as much discussion?

Yeah that would be the reason there is less info

But as vigi I'm always shooting too it's mechanically correct as long as you are shooting into the POE

[Valmark]

And yes, judge should do something, though it only now occurs to me how odd it is that the general advice for mafia is that town should always lynch but vigilantes should only shoot if they're sure. I suppose it's because vigilantism doesn't generate as much discussion?

Uh, didn't know that. Weren't people talking about how vigilantes should always shoot last game?

I mean the last game where there was a single Town vigilante, not the last last one.

[AvatarVecna]

Well

I normally don't like doing it but by late game for sure we are going to be having to worldbuild.

So here is my very loose Bunny/JeenLeen associative read which would mean Valmark is town.

Now I don't really know if Valmark is town

I might sheep snowblaze there again if she gets a read.

And he has had kind of scummy moments.

But I really doubt that we have scum up to a 4 vote wagon d1 in this format where distancing is practically not necessary and scum can open(closed?)-wolf with impunity

This last bit makes we wonder if somebody who switched off my wagon did so to make me look more suspicious. Like as if I were a witch getting bussed, even though im not.

[Apogee1]

VOTE: Bunny of Faith

Shrug. This was probably my strongest ping

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This last bit makes we wonder if somebody who switched off my wagon did so to make me look more suspicious. Like as if I were a witch getting bussed, even though im not.

Yeah this set-up places us in between a rock and a hard place

Where we have to worldbuild to have a chance to win. But all the associatives between players aren't going to look the same as they would in a normal game cause there is never certainty on who is who

I wish I randed witch tbh it would be way more fun to confuse all of you than try to muddle through this.

[AvatarVecna]

Uh, didn't know that. Weren't people talking about how vigilantes should always shoot last game?

I mean the last game where there was a single Town vigilante, not the last last one.

The last last game is a good example of why that mentality is incorrect. Getting more kills into the game that can't be influenced by the scumteam is good. But getting kills too quickly means having very little info to go on. Wizard's Guild suffered for this exact reason: a vig with no intention to work with town fired blindly every night, and it turns out that's

1) A bad way to play vig if you wanna win.

2) The default way of playing vig.

Vig needs good info to work on to get better than random chance of being correct, otherwise the game just ends 50% faster without any significant change in the outcome. And this game, there's basically no concrete info to base a kill on, with the sole exception of "has tye wolf outed themselves".

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VOTE: Bunny of Faith

Shrug. This was probably my strongest ping

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Yeah this set-up places us in between a rock and a hard place

Where we have to worldbuild to have a chance to win. But all the associatives between players aren't going to look the same as they would in a normal game cause there is never certainty on who is who

I wish I randed witch tbh it would be way more fun to confuse all of you than try to muddle through this.

lol randing witch woulda been fun. Hardclaim spy right out the gate, including fakeclaiming my two witch buddies. Idk what would happen jext but it would've been hilarious.

[JeenLeen]

One other maybe-boon of the Judge, since we're told their kill is a lynch.

It seems like the witches won't learn who dies to a judge-lynch until Night ends, just like us. So there's a chance (albeit a small chance) that the witches will try to kill the same person the judge lynched, thereby wasting their kill.

If the judge and witch kill the same person, and nothing else weird happens (e.g., no sacrifices, no Vengeful Bastard), there's only 1 kill AND we learn it was a lynch. That means we know the person killed was Town, since obviously a witch wouldn't kill their own.
Is that logic right?

Also, I think if the Judge tries to judge-lynch someone, but that person dies to a NOT judge-lynch, it means the werewolf is dead.
But I guess only the Judge would know that happened, and it's the more unlikely event of the Judge and witches targeting the same target and that target being the werewolf.
Hope that makes sense.

Anyway, wanting to send some thoughts out there about what we can learn from the deaths, in case I get eaten in the next bit.

Aventine: do we find out who the Judge lynches, even if they don't die? Is my guess right that the witches don't learn the Judge-lynch target until Night ends?

[Valmark]

since we're told their kill is a lynch.

If the judge and witch kill the same person, and nothing else weird happens (e.g., no sacrifices, no Vengeful Bastard), there's only 1 kill AND we learn it was a lynch. That means we know the person killed was Town, since obviously a witch wouldn't kill their own.
Is that logic right?

Also, I think if the Judge tries to judge-lynch someone, but that person dies to a NOT judge-lynch, it means the werewolf is dead.
But I guess only the Judge would know that happened, and it's the more unlikely event of the Judge and witches targeting the same target and that target being the werewolf.
Hope that makes sense.

When was it said that we are told the kill is a lynch? I only see that the death will be announced in the morning?

That logic looks correct, though read my question above.

I think there is the other fringe case of the judge lynching the Traveler and then the witches killing the Traveler.
Though we have a claim, so dunno how likely is that.

[Unavenger]

If the judge and witch kill the same person, and nothing else weird happens (e.g., no sacrifices, no Vengeful Bastard), there's only 1 kill AND we learn it was a lynch. That means we know the person killed was Town, since obviously a witch wouldn't kill their own.
Is that logic right?

No. Judge - > Assassin, Assassin - > Nobody, Witches - > Survivalist could produce that result, for example, as could the judge and the witches both hitting someone hyperimmune (and the assassin, if alive and real, also hitting someone hyperimmune) while the witches sacrifice someone - which, yes, is "Something weird", but we wouldn't know that that had happened. There are enough possibilities that we just don't really know for certain who's dead even if there's just one kill.

[Aventine]

Day 1 Ends
I'll double check the votes, but unless a bunch of you changed your minds at the last second and snuck in some, the lynch passes to the judge

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Night 1 will end in about 24 hours, though it may not be nearly as exact. Get your actions in if you have them.

[Aventine]

Aventine: do we find out who the Judge lynches, even if they don't die? Is my guess right that the witches don't learn the Judge-lynch target until Night ends?

I'm very glad you asked this, and did so now.

For the second question. Yes, you are right. Really the judge decision (and the martyr and the bastard, if relevant) should be a quick transition period between the phases. In the interest of keeping things moving, I figured I'd allow things to overlap with night; nobody can talk in thread at night anyway. The only real problem is a witch that gets judge or bastard killed wouldn't know right away and could talk in the witch QT for a bit. Anyway, if a witch is judge killed, the other witches should be able to work it out from the suspicious silence, but they are not explicitly told.

As for the first question. My original thought was that failed kills should just be reported as nobody dying. That would be a more typical way of handling things. (And I think I said or at least implied as much in an answer to a question in the recruitment thread). On reflection, I think it makes more sense in this particular game for the targets of failed kills to be stated. I went back and checked the old threads, and that is how they were handling it. So that's what I'm going to do. Sorry for the mistake in the recruitment thread.

[Aventine]

Night One Ends
Nobody is lynched
gac3 dies during the night

Day Two Begins!
There are 12 living players: the day will end once a majority of 7 votes is reached or after 72 hours

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And to clarify my last post a bit. The "failed kills" in the last paragraph was meant to be understood very broadly. Any kill that doesn't result in the target being dead will still be publicly announced (including who was targeted).

[Unavenger]

We'd be told if the judge kill failed, which implies that they... are AFK? Great. Just great. Play games if you're gonna sign up for them, folks!

I guess this means that we actually have to do things like trying to reach a majority and use the lynch normally. BORING.

Ugh, fine. I guess I mostly want to be saying Valmark under the circumstances, so... Valmark.

[Apogee1]

Night One Ends
Nobody is lynched
gac3 dies during the night

Day Two Begins!
There are 12 living players: the day will end once a majority of 7 votes is reached or after 72 hours

---

And to clarify my last post a bit. The "failed kills" in the last paragraph was meant to be understood very broadly. Any kill that doesn't result in the target being dead will still be publicly announced (including who was targeted).

Well this is flipping terrible

But judge should claim imo it probably hits maf

And tbh I'm excited for the chaos part

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We'd be told if the judge kill failed, which implies that they... are AFK? Great. Just great. Play games if you're gonna sign up for them, folks!

I guess this means that we actually have to do things like trying to reach a majority and use the lynch normally. BORING.

Ugh, fine. I guess I mostly want to be saying Valmark under the circumstances, so... Valmark.

Oh is that right and the judge kill failing imply they didn't target anyone?

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I'm interested in why Gac died.

Lemme go take a look

[Valmark]

Ooof that's... Bad. Well, good if gac3 was a witch, but that looks improbable given that they died to a normal kill.

It helps nothing that I was reading them Town >.> Well, let's move on.

...we can't even expect information from the Night to come since it's very hard to share anything.

...yeah, I have no idea what to say. I'll put a vote on Bunny of Faith since they are the first of the list to not look Town in the slightest after all of D1. I have no reason to think them Wolf/Witch, but also no reason to think them Town and that's the most I have to go on.
I hope someone smarter then me knows what to do >.>

[Apogee1]

Spoiler

Show

Not sure on voting yet.

But just to clarify: We know there are four enemies of town.
The enchantress
The junior witch
The werewolf
Either the assassin or the warlock.

I didn't read all of the recruitment comments so the werewolf lover might also be anti town.

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Definitely anti town. I reread the enchantress.

I was. Enchantress because if we have lovers, then they aren't the spy. The junior witch... Because I forgot they were an option for the spy.

It's been so long since I have been a wolf in a game other than crazy idea. I did so poorly last time, I actually wish I had a chance to see how I would do now that I'm more than two games in.

But I'm not sure what wolf me would have to gain from not remembering (or claiming not to remember) that the junior witch could be the spy.

I get pointing at Unavenger but the logic they presented is somewhat sound as far as I can tell. It's also pretty on brand for them. So for now I'll go with Caiohminthe Cape to try to get them talking some.

Ah that's a good point. I also could be the spy and the Junior Witch (it's junior witch right? Why jc?) And I'm trying to act like a JW who isn't the spy and slipped up so the witches think I'm not the spy.

That said, I'm neither the Junior witch more the spy. Though honestly, does the spy have much to lose from outing themselves? Probably the werewolf issue I bet. I think I saw mention of that in the recruitment thread.

I doubt both the witches and the werewolf could get the benefits of their death.

What I see as the biggest problem is there is no way to know if the werewolf dies. I'm sitting here thinking "when would it be safe for anyone to try to claim." The issue is, the werewolf makes it never safe to claim. If they didn't get a kill immunity then it wouldn't matter but now claiming almost makes it feel like if I were to claim (at any point in the future, not now of course) then I would then need to be lynched that day so we still have a hope of killing the werewolf.

Oh man. All this talk about the priest is interesting. I didn't realize/forgot until I reread the description that devouring outs the werewolf. I'm far less concerned with people claiming now. Not that people should claim right now but it's less scary if the priest or someone gets Intel to claim. I'm almost leaning that they should announce any evil reads. The werewolf might kill them but then we have something to go on. I guess it will all depend on how results go.

Man. I wish we could message. Things would be easier. But that's the point. I'm actually thinking that not lynching anyone is the best option. Witches are the only people organized enough that they can target someone so a vote lynch day one is leaned to kill a townie. While the judge can basically target anyone with equal suspicion. So I'm going to go
Unvote, No lynch and recommend that we instead place non-red votes for who the judge should kill and why. Then the judge decides based on that info.

Currently I'm not sure who most looks suspicious. AV was quiet but then popped back in, though only after being pointed out that it looked sketchy. Valmark... I'm not sure on them but am on the fence enough that maybe I would recommend the priest should target them. Unavenger I'm leaning town.

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Maybe Johny patches, since they haven't said anything. Might be useful for them to stop counting as part of the majority.

What about voting for who the judge kills is worse than lynching?

Gac ISO above

Umm. I'm having a hard time finding a motivation for this kill. Gac is certainly town killed by witches however.

My level 0 take is that the gac kill was because AV is a wolf

My level 1 take is that this was to frame AV

There isn't much else to go on IMO

Someone help me out here.

[Unavenger]

Oh is that right and the judge kill failing imply they didn't target anyone?

What I'm saying is that if the judge had tried to kill someone and failed, we would have been told (see #132 and #133). What we were actually told is simply that no-one was lynched, and that gac3 died during the night, meaning not to the judge. Implication is that the judge is not doing what they are meant to, which is trying to kill people.

[Valmark]

Oh is that right and the judge kill failing imply they didn't target anyone?

Well, the lack of a feedback means they didn't target anybody. We'd know if a lynch failed.

Also I should point out that when I say that Bunny is the first to not look Town in the slightest I should really say that they have no reason to not be a witch. There really is no reason to read somebody as Town instead of Werewolf as long as we are both threatened by the Witches. I think.

[Apogee1]

Well, the lack of a feedback means they didn't target anybody. We'd know if a lynch failed.

Also I should point out that when I say that Bunny is the first to not look Town in the slightest I should really say that they have no reason to not be a witch. There really is no reason to read somebody as Town instead of Werewolf as long as we are both threatened by the Witches. I think.

The werewolf self resolves to an extent

In that either we stumble on to them earlier on, witches blast them, or we get a point where they feel comfortable outing and trouble insues.

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Also um this might be crappy logic
But I honestly think there not being 3 night kills might help tell us who is a wolf

[Valmark]

Spoiler

Show

Gac ISO above

Umm. I'm having a hard time finding a motivation for this kill. Gac is certainly town killed by witches however.

My level 0 take is that the gac kill was because AV is a wolf

My level 1 take is that this was to frame AV

There isn't much else to go on IMO

Someone help me out here.

That looks improbable.

If AV is a wolf why frame AV? The witches don't want the werewolf dead this soon, though lynching her would waste a lynch.

And how would the witches know this soon that AV is a wolf?

And... How is gac3 related to AV at all?

[Unavenger]

Gac ISO above

Umm. I'm having a hard time finding a motivation for this kill. Gac is certainly town killed by witches however.

My level 0 take is that the gac kill was because AV is a wolf

My level 1 take is that this was to frame AV

There isn't much else to go on IMO

Someone help me out here.

My level 2 take is that this was done because the witches need to kill someone either by NK, or convincing town to lynch, and they didn't think they could convince town to lynch gac3. My level 3 take is that for some reason they thought gac3 was a power role of some important kind, but I have no idea why they thought that. But my real level 0 take is that gac3 was fairly active and getting active players killed is a boring but strong play for mafias in general.


















[/spoiler]

Gac ISO above

Umm. I'm having a hard time finding a motivation for this kill. Gac is certainly town killed by witches however.

My level 0 take is that the gac kill was because AV is a wolf

My level 1 take is that this was to frame AV

There isn't much else to go on IMO

Someone help me out here.[/QUOTE]

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That looks improbable.

If AV is a wolf why frame AV? The witches don't want the werewolf dead this soon, though lynching her would waste a lynch.

And how would the witches know this soon that AV is a wolf?

And... How is gac3 related to AV at all?

I think "Wolf" is here being confusingly used as slang for the faction traditionally known as either the mafia or the werewolves, here the witches. So the assumption is that either AV is a witch or that the witches killed someone that AV said was town in order to make her look bad.

[Valmark]

In that either we stumble on to them earlier on, witches blast them, or we get a point where they feel comfortable outing and trouble insues.

Also um this might be crappy logic
But I honestly think there not being 3 night kills might help tell us who is a wolf

The witches don't want the werewolf dead too soon, otherwise we can mass-claim and goodbye witches. IF we know that was the werewolf of course.

How does it tell us? The presence of three night kills would definitely tell us a witch died though. If I'm not wrong the only way to get three deaths is for a witch to be sacrificed.

[Apogee1]

Yeah I mixed up wolf and mafia and witch

I meant

Gac dying is either good or bad for the chances of AV being a witch

Which isn't really a great takeaway but I literally don't see much of a reason to go otherwise.

Cause like I don't think he was less likely to be eliminated than some people

I guess a strong PR read could exist on him somehow

[Valmark]

Mmm... From the times I've seen people wolfing, either you kill someone to frame one player and then defend them (I've done this and it worked wonderfully), you kill someone who has nothing to do with the wolves at all, and/or you kill someone getting too close for comfort (actually, I tried all three).

The one time I saw something different... We lost as mafia in Crazy Idea after killing Snow :p

Based on this... I can't see a meaningful connection between gac and anybody, nor I think of them as a probable target so... Eh, I guess BoF is still good to vote.

I'd rather vote Xi who I don't recall saying anything helpful, but she has been off the games for a while so I'd rather let her play more.
Last time I used this logic I pushed for not killing the Seer as a doppel, let's hope this goes better xD

[Apogee1]

Bunny/JeenLeen is kind of where I am at with wolfs right now maybe?
I'm kind of wondering if any interesting mechanical stuff is going to happen

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Night takeaways:

No lynch from the Judge could mean anything. They might not have been sure of who to kill, may have forgotten that it was a 24 hour night, or may not have been available to put in their action. Who's to say? Regardless, I don't think pressing to figure out what happened with them helps anyone but the Wolf if they can figure it out.

Night kill on gac. I doubt gac3 was the Spy, if the Witches thought so they could have voted to sacrifice and gotten an extra kill out of it. I doubt gac3 was the Vengeful Bastard, or we would have more dead.

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Umm. I'm having a hard time finding a motivation for this kill. Gac is certainly town killed by witches however.

My level 0 take is that the gac kill was because AV is a wolf

My level 1 take is that this was to frame AV

There isn't much else to go on IMO

Someone help me out here.

I don't get much of anything from the ISO. gac did vote me randomly for the first vote, off chance it might have tried to frame me?

gac seems like a decent kill anyway, as he's led town a few times and done well.

It also may not have been a kill aimed at gac. if gac was the Martyr, he could have chose to take the shot.

I do remember AV throwing some suspicion on gac yesterday and it read a little weird but with gac "flipping" a presumed town, not sure there's anything to dig into there.

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Will hopefully put more time into rereading the thread tomorrow or Monday, but for now I'll Vote: Bunny of Faith. I honestly could join either wagon but for now Valmark is at least around and putting opinions out there to be analyzed later.

Leaning more toward voting aggressively today rather than holding back - not sure we want to rely on a Judge lynch and hopefully the extra pressure will give us more info.

---

Vote Count (7 required for majority)

Valmark 1 (Unavenger)
Bunny of Faith 2 (Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape)


Not voting: 9 (Snowblaze, BunnyOfFaith, Xihirli, AvatarVecna, JeenLeen, rogue_alchemist, Elenna, Apgoee, JonnyPatches)

[JonnyPatches]

Umm. I'm having a hard time finding a motivation for this kill. Gac is certainly town killed by witches however.
.

It was a safe kill, he didn't target anyone and left it in the judge's hand. It didn't rock the boat at all. Now with that being said the Judge not lynching anyone actually hurts a lot. So the judge either passed on the kill or didn't respond so it could be someone not active lately in that role.

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VOTE: CaoimhinTheCape

I think with Caoi one of the last to vote last time and throwing a wasted vote on Xihirli that they both witches. It would be too late and no one would be rallying to throw votes on Xi. So in night one I think it would have been a good play to throw people off from them being on the same side.

[JeenLeen]

I agree with the general sentiment. Though, as the Judge is rather likely to kill a townie N1, I guess it's reasonable they picked no lynch. Still disappointing as (as was stated) they had better odds than the normal lynch since they can kill the Enchantress. Like, I get why the Judge might have acted that way as a town move, but still disagree.
Also, bummer that the witches didn't test if I were bluffing. Though I guess that was hoping for too much good luck.

So what do we know from gac3 dying?
Well, he was town or the werewolf. Or could be Junior Witch if that role hadn't joined the witches yet.
We can also assume the Judge is not Lovers with the Werewolf. If they were paired (assuming not just an AFK fluke), the judge certainly would have killed someone to further the werewolf faction's victory. So we learn the Judge is truly Town.
AvatarVecna: you said you thought gac3 slipped up and revealed something. Is it safe to say what that something is?


So, roles we know are active:
Enchantress, Warlock, Assassin <-- witches didn't kill their own
Vengeful Bastard, Survivalist, Traveler <--another would have died, he wouldn't have died, and I'm uncounterclaimed Traveler
Roles maybe dead: werewolf, junior witch, vampire hunter, priest, acolyte, judge, martyr

Bunny/JeenLeen is kind of where I am at with wolfs right now maybe?
I'm kind of wondering if any interesting mechanical stuff is going to happen

I don't see anything strongly suspicious towards Bunny of Faith, but I'm fine with putting my vote to show no affiliation: Bunny of Faith

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I think with Caoi one of the last to vote last time and throwing a wasted vote on Xihirli that they both witches. It would be too late and no one would be rallying to throw votes on Xi. So in night one I think it would have been a good play to throw people off from them being on the same side.

My above post was written before this was added to JonnyPatches'.
I can see the argument for Cao/Xihirli. Though I'd rather wagon on Xihirli to see if she'll say something more coherent (as much fun as the other comments are.)
I'll leave my vote on Bunny for now, but I feel like stating I'm likely to move my vote to one of them (particularly Xihirli) if others vote that way.

[Apogee1]

Aaaah why do you all agree with me

The paranoia is setting in