Left 4 Dead 3

[rogue_alchemist]

makes sense. Sorry for confusion, just wasn't clear to me. So most everyone who is active has claimed?

Xihirli - Lynched D1: The Gamer
Apogee1 - Killed N1: Psychopath
Caerulea - Alcoholic (5/10 Survivor)
CaoimhinTheCape - Died N1: Vigilante
Captain Cap - JoAT(6/10 Survivor)
gac3 - Killed N1: Spy
Holy-hunter - ghosted
JeenLeen - claimed Spy then changed to Reporter (7/10 Survivor)
PartyOfRouges - Paranoid (5/10 Survivor)
rogue_alchemist - Corpsman (7/10 Survivor)
The Outsider - no claim
Unavenger - Police Officer (7/10 Survivor)
Valmark - not voider

Actually, reading it now? There's only two roles that can Void, and one of them is the JOAT who CC claimed, saying they used a Detect.

Thing is, I was voided. So even if Caerulea was the Alcoholic they couldn't have voided CC.

- - - Updated - - -

Unless repeats. I forget about that.

CAPTAIN CAP WAS VOIDED LAST NIGHT EVERYONE. I AM TOWN-ALIGNED ALCHOLIC, AND I VOIDED HIM. Full post coming in a sec.

So assuming everyone is claiming truthfully (and there has been no counter claims yet, so it's at least possible, though there were quite a few roles possible and repeats are possible, so maybe no one wants to counterclaim), we have Caerulea and PartyOfRogues who have the lowest possibilities of being Survivor. We have generally agreed that 3/13 wolves seems reasonable and likely only 2 wolves voted on D1 and 1 of them tried to network. It seems more likely to me that Captain Cap was starting to get caught in a lie and Caerulea came out to try to save them with a shot in the dark. He claimed Alchoholic (because no one else was a voider) and claims to be town aligned.

I actually have a somewhat crazy theory: Neither of the two conflicting parties is lying, the Alcoholic is in this game and is a wolf, and is playing the Town for saps. And since I've already given my theory on a possible candidate for an Alcoholic...

But that theory relies too much on unconfirmed details. So I'm going to keep my vote on Captain Cap, and come back to it if they flip Town. Or if Caerulea gives a solid claim.

Seems more likely to me that they are working together and Caerulea was trying to save a wolf buddy. I am going back to voting Captain Cap.

EDIT: Just to be clear I am not saying that Caerulea isn't an alocholic, I'm just saying their claim was awful convienent.

[Caerulea]

Quite the assumption, in a game of Mafia. Counterclaims are, as you point out, incredibly unlikely because roles are non-exclusive, and there are more roles than players. As far as I can tell, the conditional chance of another person having a certain role given one person that has it is the same as the chance of someone getting that role in the first place. So I take issue with your implication that every role here is truthful. Also, it's quite possible that a role with a low probability of getting wolf is a wolf (perhaps even you).

Even setting aside my claim, we have what Captain Cap actually posted as the text he got from AV. Which makes it quite clear he was voided. I do wonder how in the world he interpreted it the way that he did, but to each their own I suppose. It's quite possible he is a wolf.

Why do we think 3 wolves is most likely? I personally was thinking 4 (just under 25%).

[PartyOfRogues]

4 wolves out of 13 players would be 30%, not just under 25%

[Valmark]

Quite the assumption, in a game of Mafia. Counterclaims are, as you point out, incredibly unlikely because roles are non-exclusive, and there are more roles than players. As far as I can tell, the conditional chance of another person having a certain role given one person that has it is the same as the chance of someone getting that role in the first place. So I take issue with your implication that every role here is truthful. Also, it's quite possible that a role with a low probability of getting wolf is a wolf (perhaps even you).

Even setting aside my claim, we have what Captain Cap actually posted as the text he got from AV. Which makes it quite clear he was voided. I do wonder how in the world he interpreted it the way that he did, but to each their own I suppose. It's quite possible he is a wolf.

Why do we think 3 wolves is most likely? I personally was thinking 4 (just under 25%).

4 wolves out of 13 players would be 30%, not just under 25%

Also, we know there was a Beast role and also the risk somebody's... Whatever was the 'random' Spy (Although now it should have been revealed).

I find these roles AND four wolves a bit unlikely.

I don't think Caerulea was trying to save their wolf buddy- they would have said so immediately, instead of going 'eh, they can wait until I'm free to post'. Especially because Caerulea soft-claimed BEFORE CC was anywhere near being caught in a lie.

[Caerulea]

4 wolves out of 13 players would be 30%, not just under 25%

I am quite good at math. Oops. Why must arithmetic be more challenging than multivariable calculus!?

EDIT: Rescinding the opinion that there are 4 wolves.

[rogue_alchemist]

I don't think we can rely on someone not immediately getting on here to post in defense, we have to look at post rates. So if Caerulea had been active during that time and posted, then I fully understand saying he would have claimed sooner to save his buddy, but in this forum, it seems likely he posted as soon as he realized he could.

I take the point about counterclaims, that is why I pointed out that maybe that wasn't as strong as I would like, but I don't think the chance of two roles is the super high. We shouldn't have a bunch of roles doubled up only 1 or at most 2. This is based on AV saying it shouldn't be very likely. Though I am willing to bet certain roles have a higher chance of doubling up than others.

Okay my point about 3 wolves was more that there are at least 3 wolves, not only 2. There have been implications of me and Apogee1 being in cahoots, but that would only identify 2. I am pointing out a larger connection between more people that would support something bigger like 3 or 4 wolves. (4 does seem too many to me, but maybe with the beast role it is more likely).

[JeenLeen]

Too tired to give serious thought to the Captain Cap/rogue_alchemist thing, but I agree the major evidence against Captain Cap is gone now, and it seems like the wagon is strong.
So holy-hunter. Or I'm just networking more.

For what it's worth on Caerulea: she told me privately that she voided Captain Cap quite a while ago, and that she was suspicious of him even before D2 started. So, although she saying it publicly during D2 does help Captain Cap's defense, I don't think she made it up to protect a scum-buddy.
Well, that, or it was some really good pre-emptive defensive scheming

Though she did only say she voided him after I said I targeted Cao, so in theory she could have been a wolf lying and knowing that I (whether Spy or Reporter) wouldn't have any info to disprove her statement, but I don't see any strong reason for such paranoia.

[Valmark]

I don't think we can rely on someone not immediately getting on here to post in defense, we have to look at post rates. So if Caerulea had been active during that time and posted, then I fully understand saying he would have claimed sooner to save his buddy, but in this forum, it seems likely he posted as soon as he realized he could.

Except Caerulea posted twice before claiming after CC's post.

- - - Updated - - -

One of which after CC got caught in the (at the time) lie.

[JeenLeen]

One of which after CC got caught in the (at the time) lie.

What was the lie?
I know he (if both he and Caerulea are being honest) misinterpreted his power feedback, but I don't recall a lie. Though I fully admit I might've missed it.

Also, do you have the time to give a comparative "we learn X about Y if Captain Cap/rogue_alchemist flip wolf/town".
I admit it does look bad for Caerulea if Captain Cap flips wolf, and with the number of voids around it's possible she risks lying about who she targeted and really voided someone else. (Not saying I think that's likely, just noting a potential scenario.)

[Unavenger]

What was the lie?
I know he (if both he and Caerulea are being honest) misinterpreted his power feedback, but I don't recall a lie. Though I fully admit I might've missed it.

Valmark's point being that until Cae posted, Cap appeared to be lying because of what I'd revealed and the fact that no-one had yet claimed to be the person who'd voided Cap.

[rogue_alchemist]

Except Caerulea posted twice before claiming after CC's post.

- - - Updated - - -

One of which after CC got caught in the (at the time) lie.

Doesn't that just make it all the more suspicious. I had my timing wrong and missed Caerulea's post, but waiting to reveal they had voided CC when we were talking about it and accusing them, then coming back and posting it later. I am not trying to be confusing or double talk, I am genuinely trying to understand how certain things get seen as suspicious and other things are just laissez faire?

[Valmark]

What was the lie?
I know he (if both he and Caerulea are being honest) misinterpreted his power feedback, but I don't recall a lie. Though I fully admit I might've missed it.

Also, do you have the time to give a comparative "we learn X about Y if Captain Cap/rogue_alchemist flip wolf/town".
I admit it does look bad for Caerulea if Captain Cap flips wolf, and with the number of voids around it's possible she risks lying about who she targeted and really voided someone else. (Not saying I think that's likely, just noting a potential scenario.)

When we thought CC hadn't been voided and after Unoriginal's Claim it looked like CC lied about their power (which wasn't true).

There are lots of possible outcomes:
- CC flips Town, JOAT (so he's been truthful): Caerulea as a wolf would make no sense since Cae could have gotten away with no consequence, Unavenger would look townier too- though since they used their power to sink CC it wouldn't be such a certain proof (a wolf had reasons to push against Captain too). Outsider too, seemed to write like a Town that guessed correctly. Though they could have easily been a wolf with inside knowledge (in which case we'd be ****ed because who's going to think of lynching Outsider? Unless new info comes up).

- CC flips Town, not JOAT: ...I have no idea. I think this would be completely senseless and we'd gain nothing.

- CC flips Wolf, not JOAT: happy everybody. The lack of three Voiders makes Caerulea's claim more sensed and I feel like if they had been a wolf they would have said so earlier, as previously stated. Unavenger would be Town-cored for me. Outsider... Same thing as earlier.

- CC flips Wolf, JOAT: ...I guess this could have been an elaborated ploy? Seems so weird and very against the way CC was writing, but we already know from previous games that Cap is pretty convincing. I guess my biggest question would be what CC would have hoped to accomplish by accusing a Townie with sure proof which would be revealed anyway?

In fact, this is true in general- CC's plan as a Wolf made no sense and Unavenger's intervention as a Wolf against Town made even less sense.

You could think CC, Unavenger and Cae are all together, but then you have to think there's four total wolves which looks one too many with false seers and beasts.

[rogue_alchemist]

When we thought CC hadn't been voided and after Unoriginal's Claim it looked like CC lied about their power (which wasn't true).

There are lots of possible outcomes:
- CC flips Town, JOAT (so he's been truthful): Caerulea as a wolf would make no sense since Cae could have gotten away with no consequence, Unavenger would look townier too- though since they used their power to sink CC it wouldn't be such a certain proof (a wolf had reasons to push against Captain too). Outsider too, seemed to write like a Town that guessed correctly. Though they could have easily been a wolf with inside knowledge (in which case we'd be ****ed because who's going to think of lynching Outsider? Unless new info comes up).

- CC flips Town, not JOAT: ...I have no idea. I think this would be completely senseless and we'd gain nothing.

- CC flips Wolf, not JOAT: happy everybody. The lack of three Voiders makes Caerulea's claim more sensed and I feel like if they had been a wolf they would have said so earlier, as previously stated. Unavenger would be Town-cored for me. Outsider... Same thing as earlier.

- CC flips Wolf, JOAT: ...I guess this could have been an elaborated ploy? Seems so weird and very against the way CC was writing, but we already know from previous games that Cap is pretty convincing. I guess my biggest question would be what CC would have hoped to accomplish by accusing a Townie with sure proof which would be revealed anyway?

In fact, this is true in general- CC's plan as a Wolf made no sense and Unavenger's intervention as a Wolf against Town made even less sense.

You could think CC, Unavenger and Cae are all together, but then you have to think there's four total wolves which looks one too many with false seers and beasts.

How did Unavenger intervene on CC's behalf? Unavenger was a big part of the reason we went after CC. I never accused him of being a wolf. I agree it makes no sense. But I appreciate you helping me see some of the logic.

[Valmark]

Doesn't that just make it all the more suspicious. I had my timing wrong and missed Caerulea's post, but waiting to reveal they had voided CC when we were talking about it and accusing them, then coming back and posting it later. I am not trying to be confusing or double talk, I am genuinely trying to understand how certain things get seen as suspicious and other things are just laissez faire?

Mainly because Cae gave a plausible reply (they were doing something IRL and wanted to get a decent post in afterwards, didn't think we'd CFD Captain Cap. That's what CFD means correct?). Then you add that it seems weird for a wolf to not be ready with their wolf excuse, and then you add that... What would have been the point?

Assuming Unavenger didn't say anything (by the way what Unavenger said about my point is correct) we'd have either lynched PoR and then Captain Cap (Caerulea edited it out, but they were already set to speak about voiding CC after the first post, or at least put in the sees) or with Cae's intervention do nothing at all. So either wolves lose more or nothing happens.

With Unavenger in we'd have either lynched CC then Unavenger, or just CC (depending on who was a wolf). This could have resulted in two townie lynched (no reason for Cae to jump in), one townie and one wolf lynched (bad deal), one wolf lynched (well, worst deal), or two wolves lynched (this requires all three to be part of the plan and for Cae to save them, for no gain).

I don't think this is the second case (one townie and one wolf lynched means Unavenger stuck their neck out to get CC killed only to be naturally killed afterwards) and the third case still looks iffy (CC as a wolf would have been killed one way or the other).

...and I realize I forgot to consider that PoR was accused. I have honestly no idea how to factor that in.

Does anybody see flaws in my reasoning?

[Caerulea]

Doesn't that just make it all the more suspicious. I had my timing wrong and missed Caerulea's post, but waiting to reveal they had voided CC when we were talking about it and accusing them, then coming back and posting it later. I am not trying to be confusing or double talk, I am genuinely trying to understand how certain things get seen as suspicious and other things are just laissez faire?

I'll tell you what happened from my perspective. Captain Cap made a claim regarding who visited JeenLeen. Unavenger contested it. Knowing that I voided Captain Cap, and that this likely caused the confusion, Because I don't want to claim early (I edited out the part of my post that implied I was a voider), I asked Captain Cap to tell us exactly what they got, and then I went to practice violin. When I come back, there's a massive wagon on Captain Cap, so I claim to clear up the confusion.

EDIT: Valmark's analysis looks good.

[Valmark]

How did Unavenger intervene on CC's behalf? Unavenger was a big part of the reason we went after CC. I never accused him of being a wolf. I agree it makes no sense. But I appreciate you helping me see some of the logic.

Who said Unavenger intervened on CC's behalf?

[rogue_alchemist]

In fact, this is true in general- CC's plan as a Wolf made no sense and Unavenger's intervention as a Wolf against Town made even less sense.

You could think CC, Unavenger and Cae are all together, but then you have to think there's four total wolves which looks one too many with false seers and beasts.

This is what I was referring to. "Unavenger's intervention as a Wolf against Town" I was agreeing that it made no sense. I guess I misinterpreted your saying that Unavenger and CC were wolves together.

[Valmark]

This is what I was referring to. "Unavenger's intervention as a Wolf against Town" I was agreeing that it made no sense. I guess I misinterpreted your saying that Unavenger and CC were wolves together.

Ah, no, that meant Unavenger Wolf and CC Town, sorry.

- - - Updated - - -

I noticed now something in my QT- won't get into detail but my power not working wasn't fault of a Void. That reassures me of CC and Cae's claims.

[rogue_alchemist]

Just to be sure I am clear on the plan. Right now the plan is to lynch me, see which way I flip and hope for more intel from that/ whatever happens tonight? This'll be the 3rd game where I have specifically been the Baner and gotten lynched for being suspicious. I guess I play the baner wrong. I don't want to accidently bane a wolf and protect him from a vig or anything and I never know who to network with. I guess I need to get over being more certain or being manipulated and just get out there and try bold things. There is always next time...

[Captain Cap]

How in the world Captain Cap interpreted this as nobody else targeted JeenLeen is beyond me, but it's very, very clearly a void.

In my defence, this is like my 4th game and I've never been voided before, nor I ever witnessed a message post void.

rogue_alchemist

[Caerulea]

In my defence, this is like my 4th game and I've never been voided before, nor I ever witnessed a message post void.

Fair

Day ends in about 5 hours 30 minutes by my counting, and the votes stand at:
rogue_alchemist (5): Caerulea, Valmark, The Outsider, PartyOfRogues, Captain Cap
Captain Cap (1): rogue_alchemist,
Holy Hunter (1): JeenLeen

[JeenLeen]

Just to be sure I am clear on the plan. Right now the plan is to lynch me, see which way I flip and hope for more intel from that/ whatever happens tonight? This'll be the 3rd game where I have specifically been the Baner and gotten lynched for being suspicious. I guess I play the baner wrong. I don't want to accidently bane a wolf and protect him from a vig or anything and I never know who to network with. I guess I need to get over being more certain or being manipulated and just get out there and try bold things. There is always next time...

I think baning oneself N1 is usually the best move and considered the standard move, unless you have a strong reason to bane someone else. At least for the metagame in this forum.

I admit I've been distracted this game a lot more than usual, but I don't see what you did that was particularly suspicious beyond a couple things maybe worded oddly. Which makes sense for D1 voting, but not necessarily D2. (Not trying to make a defensive argument at this point; I have been too distracted to do any solid analysis this Day.)

- - - Updated - - -

For what it's worth, I get a kinda wolfy vibe from Valmark, but I think that might just be it being hard for me to read Valmark. If we follow his chain of "if X flips Y, then Z is wolf" and all those folk his logic says should be wolf actually flip as Town, should probably suspect him.
No strong suspicion on him right now and I appreciate his commentary. But wanted to throw that out there in case I die tonight.

[Valmark]

For what it's worth, I get a kinda wolfy vibe from Valmark, but I think that might just be it being hard for me to read Valmark. If we follow his chain of "if X flips Y, then Z is wolf" and all those folk his logic says should be wolf actually flip as Town, should probably suspect him.
No strong suspicion on him right now and I appreciate his commentary. But wanted to throw that out there in case I die tonight.

But I concluded that none of them should be a Wolf? I admit it was a lot of words.

[JeenLeen]

But I concluded that none of them should be a Wolf? I admit it was a lot of words.

I thought you meant one chain of IFs implies Unavenger is a wolf, per below.

Ah, no, that meant Unavenger Wolf and CC Town, sorry.

[Valmark]

I thought you meant one chain of IFs implies Unavenger is a wolf, per below.

Which refers to where I say that Unavenger as wolf vs CC Town made no sense.

[rogue_alchemist]

Alright well as dead as this has been today, I guess we can go ahead and call it. No one seems to be likely to flip and wagon won't move. There were 2 wolves, me and Apogee1. This is the end. I am leaving for the day and won't be on much. Good game everyone. It does suck having gotten baner 3 times and been called wolf all three times, but this time it was true. I guess I will see you all next game!

rogue_alchemist

[Valmark]

Alright well as dead as this has been today, I guess we can go ahead and call it. No one seems to be likely to flip and wagon won't move. There were 2 wolves, me and Apogee1. This is the end. I am leaving for the day and won't be on much. Good game everyone. It does suck having gotten baner 3 times and been called wolf all three times, but this time it was true. I guess I will see you all next game!

rogue_alchemist

Two wolves only? Uh.

More to say after we are sure the game ended with this.

[JeenLeen]

I was kinda hoping holy-hunter was a wolf choosing to be silent and would slowly kill us. I mean, I like to be on the winning team, but hoped for a new active player.

[AvatarVecna]

Im fine-ish calling it a couple hours early. >.<

Apogee1/Psychopath
Caerulea/Alchoholic
CaoimhinTheCape/Vigilante
Captain Cap/Jack Of All Trades
gac3/Spy
Holy-hunter/Paranoid
JeenLeen/Reporter
PartyOfRouges/Paranoid
rogue_alchemist/Corpsman
The Outsider/Celebrity
Unavenger/Police Officer
Valmark/Corpsman
Xihirli/Gamer

So the random role/alignment assignment mostly worked out about as expected and desired. Three wolves is probably normal for a game this size, but I thought 3+vig would be too much so I went with 2 (and barely realized there were 4.5 baners until afterwards). As far as the rolling mechanics go:

20 rolls, 13 players, so 13d20 to assign initially.

If there's duplicates, 1d4: 1, they both stay the same for now; 2, the first one rerolls their d20; 3, the second one rerolls their d20; 4, they both reroll their d20. If that new d20 roll ends up rolling up a duplicate for some other number, I repeat the process until there's either no duplicates or all the current duplicates had rolled a 1 on their d4 roll and were at peace with each other. In this game, it so happened that we got two Corpsman and two Paranoids - baners all.

For alignment, roll 2d10 for each role, and take the lowest roll. If the number of roles that rolled above their wolf-number isn't greater than the number of wolves I want (in this case, 1 or 2 roles only that rolled so high), I make those roles wolves and reroll the rest if necessary. If the number of roles that rolled above their wolf-number is greater than the number of wolves I want, I discard the rest from consideration and roll those roles with 2d10w1 until I eliminate the extras.

As it happened, the first round of rolling, the only role that rolled above their wolf number was a corpsman - even the psychopath rolled super-low that time. So Corpsman was first wolf, and then I rolled the rest. 5 were in the running for about 6 rerolls until eventually all but the psychopath dropped out at once. It was very strange dice.

Anyway yeah should've had another wolf in the mix. Also gac3 should've lived cuz they were baned and I just missed it, but it turns out it didn't matter. Maybe this game would've gone okay if the Vig had killed a townie instead of the psychopath - because Vig was detected that night and somebody would've seen them use a kill power on the dead townie. But "what if"s aren't worth much. Sorry it was disappointing, y'all. >.<

[Unavenger]

Good game, everyone. Join us in Crazier Idea?