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Thread: Afterlife
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2021-08-16, 04:27 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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Re: Afterlife
Voting for Aventine, praise the dice gods.
Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-08-16 at 04:27 PM.
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2021-08-16, 04:53 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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2021-08-16, 06:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-08-16, 07:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: Afterlife
Honestly, feels at least as hard to believe that a wolf would actually do that.
I think where I'm at at the moment is:
gac is neutral
blade is a wolf
Murska feels like he's coasting. I also did not like the suggestion of going after Emmy. It felt like suggesting killing the former counter-wagon as a safe mislynch to push.
Caoimhin gave me some sketchy vibes at a couple points, but nothing all that huge. I do get vibes of "trying to look solvey without actually being solvey."
I don't think I've ever known how to properly read Xihirli (I should try to figure that out one of these days)
Batcathat, walk me through what you were thinking when you said
"She claimed in a weird way and didn't claim like she usually does" is such a weird thing to post. I can't get inside the headspace you were in here.
I'm willing to believe Book Wombat, at least for now. gac could totally side with the wolves, but I don't think you make that decision yet. Confirming a townie, but in the process exposing a power role to the wolves? Gives both sides something valuable. That sounds like a neutral move. So I buy what gac is selling.
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2021-08-16, 07:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
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2021-08-16, 07:37 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Afterlife
So, can you give an explanation for the praise the dice gods comment? I think I get it but I'd rather hear it from you instead of me giving you an out.
Book Wombat is assumed town based on your word. It seems likely that both Town and Wolves had a power to make QTs but he could have just as easily been your actual target last night and you've made some sort of deal with him. Unfortunately, Night 2 can't do anything to prove Book's power.
Actually, gac, we could believe your word much more if your targets from last night could confirm the QT you set up. If we can account for your actions Night 2, BW is more likely to have the power as claimed.
Those two were mentioned by gac because gac theoretically doesn't have a QT between them. They're not necessarily most suspicious, gac just wants them dead.
@Batcathat or Aventine
I get how Murska's comment about Emmy seemed to be setting up a mislynch, but my biggest hang up on voting Murska is Day 1. His change in vote literally flips the wagons from Snow-4 and Apogee-3 to Snow-3 and Apogee-4. How is this a good move for the Wolf team if Snow is still a possible lynch?
I should have time for one more post tonight with hopefully more content, but wanted to address stuff/ask questions.
Votecount:
Batcathat (2): gac3, Murska
Murska (2): Batcathat, Aventine
Aventine (1): Book Wombat
Book Wombat (1): Xihirli
Not Voting: CaoimhinTheCape
No Posts: bladescape
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2021-08-16, 07:42 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Afterlife
Hey, people that I made a QT with last night, want to help confirm a townie by telling people who you were?
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2021-08-16, 08:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
I've got a QT with Xihirli since last night.
Day 1 vote tally, with fancy colours:
Aventine: Book Wombat, bladescape
Snowblaze: Supagoof, Apogee1, Aventine
rogue_alchemist: Batcathat
Apogee1: Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Murska, rogue_alchemist, Xihirli, gac3
No Vote: EmmyNecromancer
I'd colour BW as orange but apparently they're a townie PR that's confirmed somehow?
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2021-08-16, 08:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2021-08-16, 08:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-08-16, 08:34 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Afterlife
Spoiler: Apogee Quotes
Revisiting Apogee's quotes he only talks about gac (as Medium), Snow (confirmed Town), me (tangentially), and Ave (defending). At this point Apogee isn't a guaranteed lynch but has 3 votes compared to Snow's 4 and RA's 3.
OK. So, gac's power on Night 1 and 2 is accounted for.
Which means, if Book Wombat does have a Quick Topic with gac then it was made by Book. Book is confirmed to be able to create QTs or contact gac somehow.
We saw the Wolf version of a role like this with Apogee, it would be weird for Wolves to have two versions of that role.
@Book Wombat Why did you only make a QT with yourself and gac last night? If you were looking to help gac out by connecting more people, it would have made more sense to match gac with someone else and you would pop in to say hi. Would help confirm your story too.
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2021-08-16, 08:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Afterlife
Night 1 book got me and them. I appreciate this because I'm unsure if book would still be on my list or not if their name wasn't on the QT.
I advised them not to comment in any other QTs unless needed or I die and they could send messages through me.
Then I advised targeting Snow because I didn't actually think Snow would die.
So no QT night 2.
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2021-08-16, 08:48 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
That's not confirmation. Sorry, that just isn't. We have no information on how common that power is, particularly with the wolves. "It would be weird if" we have no role information.
This doesn't clear Book, it's nothing information.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2021-08-16, 08:56 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: Afterlife
Do you really think Snow was a viable lynch at that point? The wagon had stalled out a while before. I'd dropped from it, only to return specifically to try to keep rogue's from getting too far ahead. I never did come back and drop from it again, but would you have bet on that? I don't think the wolves would have considered Snow much of a possible lynch. If you think the apogee lynch is inevitable, or even very likely, it is definitely a good move to get out ahead of things and bus at that point.
We're talking about someone who said this:
Murksa ain't scared of being a little ballsy and taking a calculated risk.
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2021-08-16, 09:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-08-16 at 09:04 PM.
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2021-08-16, 09:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Afterlife
I guess but it's more town evidence than we have for most. Book hasn't asked me for any information beyond giving him a name to target from my list or done anything particularly wolfy. It's as confirmed as we can get right now and would be a waste to target them rather than someone who doesn't have that kind of case for them.
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2021-08-16, 09:49 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Afterlife
Yes, Snow was a viable wagon. My count was a bit off in my earlier post: RA moved off of Apogee at that point to vote himself (Snow-4 RA-3 Apogee-2). We were also less than two hours away from deadline and simply not posting might not have flipped things. His vote came before Xihirli and gac so it pushed the votes to 3 all (with RA assumed to come back to Apogee).
That said, I get how it could be used for townie points and he may be the type to do that, with the quote you gave.
I'm with Xi on this one. You're Neutral so taking your word for it means we're helping with your win con, not necessarily ours. Book isn't necessarily a good lynch but I'm not clearing him right now.
It's just a shame that there's no one alive that can verify it. Without a second person to corroborate it seems like you're just making a connection with one person each night.
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2021-08-16, 10:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
BatCatHat
Murska is pretty bloody towny imo.
The Snow/Apogee flip was VERY close and one person going the other way earlier may have left snow out in the cold.
I doubt teammates would throw Apogee away like that.
- - - Updated - - -
Using Snow's dying wish may have been the wolf plan? Thanks for letting us know."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2021-08-16, 10:49 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Afterlife
I agree. You should not trust me. But it seems like you are questioning not my word or Books word but whether or not this makes them town. So which is more likely, that Book is a town person with the same power as a neutral and a wolf have been confirmed to have and is one of only two confirmed powers in the game? Or that Book has a power that is super similar but slightly different than the confirmed wolf/neutral powers while being slightly different (your claim might be the case)? Or that Book is a wolf (one of 3 or 4 total) with the exact same power as another wolf (as Xi was claiming might be the case)?
And fine. Don't clear them. Give them another night. Odds are they die tonight. If not, then odds are they can prove their power with a second person tomorrow. Unless we think they are likely to be the final wolf, Town would be far better served to target someone else today.
But as long as that someone isn't me, I'm fine. I should win tonight. Barring any unforeseen circumstances.
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2021-08-16, 11:11 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: Afterlife
I don't generally consider 6 to 3 to be "VERY close" personally. Nor do I think there was much reason to think someone else was going to join the Snow wagon when Murska switched. If someone additional had joined the Snow wagon before that point, maybe wolf-Murska stays. But even in that world, if I show up and switch, then Apogee still dies.
So, what's your take on my reasoning that with nobody new voting for Snow for a while, and my having signaled a willingness/desire to get off the Snow wagon, it was reasonable to think that there was a good chance the Apogee wagon was going to overtake Snow's anyway, thus making bussing a good strategy? There is a difference between "throw[ing] Apogee away" and calculating that he was going to die anyway and acting accordingly.
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2021-08-17, 04:29 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Afterlife
Do you have an actual case for that? Voting Apogee is certainly a point in Murska's favor but as has already been pointed out, it's hardly irrefutable evidence and following up a unexplained vote with an unexplained vote doesn't scream trustworthy to me (even if I hadn't been the target of the votes).
That said, I'm not married to the idea of lynching Murska, but I don't see any other good candidates at the moment.
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2021-08-17, 07:16 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Afterlife
So yeah, my worry is that Book Wombat is a Wolf version of the Seer. Instead of connecting two people he would spy on someone's personal QT and possibly talk there.
But you also bring up the idea I was going to suggest this morning: we give Book Wombat another day and overnight he can use his power to connect two people. I don't see Wolves having two people with the same power so that would be enough for me.
gac will be connecting Ave/BCH tonight (or one of them with someone else). Book Wombat picks one of blade/Cao and one of Xi/Murska to pair up and we see that his power is like the Medium/Wolf power.
Was gonna give townie points if someone suggested a way to test him so, uhh, I guess I see the Neutral as more townish now?
Let's assume Wolf!Murska:
Xirili announced plans to read over the thread and vote.
RA was happy to fall on his own sword due to being busy.
Snow and I were already on Apogee.
gac, as Neutral, shouldn't be relied on as a vote for anyone in particular.
You're saying that with less than 2 hours in the day Wolf!Murska decides to leave the leading wagon on a Townie? RA only switches his vote because Murska makes Apogee a viable lynch.
Without Murska's vote, we have Xi move to Apogee and RA moves back soon afterward. That's 4 v 4 with an hour and a half left in the day. There's no reason to assume gac will show up to move votes, leaving us with a tie at the end of the day. 50/50 shot that a Wolf power role survives.
At 4 votes, there didn't need to be anyone additional voting for Snow - they just needed those four not to move.
Votecount:
Batcathat (3): gac3, Murska, bladescape
Murska (2): Batcathat, Aventine
Aventine (1): Book Wombat
Book Wombat (1): Xihirli
Not Voting: CaoimhinTheCape
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2021-08-17, 09:36 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
For the two questioning just read Cao's explanation. It basically summerises why I'm not concerned by Murska.
Tired rn."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2021-08-17, 12:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: Afterlife
Xi voted for Apogee after Murska did. At the point when Murska switches, he doesn't/can't know that Xi is going to end up on Apogee, nor that I am not going to show up and switch off Snow now that there is a viable non-rogue alternative. You keep citing how little time there was, but so what? How does that help your case? It would be one thing if you were arguing that since there wasn't enough time left, Murksa could have been expecting no other changes to happen after his. I would honestly disagree with that, but it would be an argument that comes from "there wasn't much time left." Instead you kinda just repeat it without it really meaning anything. And worse, your argument relies on Murska expecting a certain series of actions to happen. And exactly that sequence of events. It almost looks like you are arguing that that is reasonable due to the low amount of time remaining. But in that case: why? How? Why is it reasonable to say "there is enough time for these specific things to happen, but not enough for anything else to happen"?
Your argument relies on Murska assuming that Xi and rogue will switch to Apogee and me and gac won't. How is that anywhere near a reasonable position to be thinking this through from? It's one thing to look at that situation as one case among many, but building your entire argument on that specific possible future? Do you really think Murska would have made his decision based entirely on that specific sequence of events happening?
Under your contrived assumptions regarding what Murska is assuming will happen, he has two choices. Stay on Snow: 50/50 shot that a wolf dies (according to your questionable calculations). But Murska is on the mislynch wagon. If Apogee is the lynchee, or dies later, Murska is suspect. (Note also that the push on Emmy suggests he is thinking in terms of lynching former counterwagons for the info). If I show up and switch now that there is a viable non-rogue alternative to Snow, then Apogee dies anyway and Murska's on the wrong wagon. If anyone else not already either on Apogee's wagon or assumed to end up there under the contrived scenario show up and joins it, then Apogee dies anyway and Murska's on the wrong wagon. Option two is switch: at which point yes, if anyone else joins the Apogee wagon (and it was reasonable to think that was likely), then Apogee dies. But Murska is a key vote that made that happen. It is entirely reasonable to assume that he's going to get people making the argument you and blade are making.
Again, I want to point out that Murska said a wolf would take a coinflip between dying and being (incorrectly) cleared. He's not timid. He's not someone who is going to shy away from the ballsy move. And looking at that last paragraph, switching was the smart move. Even under your contrived scenario, there is a 50/50 shot of Apogee dying. Even if he survives, he is a prime target for someone to suggest lynching him to get info on the wagons. I don't think everyone is willing to make the move there, but I can guarantee that Murska is not afraid of making a move like that.
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2021-08-17, 02:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Afterlife
Alright, I don't want to drag this out too much. I guess I didn't explain it right, so I'll try to explain myself better. We'll set aside the time factor for now, though I would still contend that it makes a difference. At the point Murska votes, this was the count:
Apogee1 (2):CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze (4):Aventine, Murska, Apogee1, Supagoof
Aventine (2): bladescape, Bookwombat
rogue_alchemist (3):Batcathat, gac3, rogue_alchemist
No Lynch (1): Xihirli
Point 1 Apogee wagon is not inevitable, Snowblaze is still a viable wagon before the Murska vote.
RA, myself, Snow, and Xi are the only players posting around then. RA wants to make something happen but is willing to vote himself. Wolf!Murska is online but hasn't posted yet.
Point 2 Murska can hedge his bets and wait to vote until Apogee (at that point with only 2 votes) becomes a viable wagon.
Whether or not Murska is the type to hedge bets vs make a risky play, I don't know. Jumping in to make this vote, however, makes Apogee much more likely to be lynched, tying everyone at 3. RA has also announced he would be around to change his vote if needed.
Point 3 Murska's vote essentially puts Apogee in the lead, when RA can be expected to move back to Apogee.
Those are my thoughts about how the wagons transpired. We're talking around the same point of "Murska can't know what's going to happen" but using it differently. You're saying he can't know that Snow is a viable wagon. I'm saying he can't know that Apogee is a viable wagon.
As for the time argument, my thoughts are: "Given enough time to discuss, more votes on Apogee are likely." In my view, since there was only 2 hours left and four people (Snow, Cao, RA, Xi) online, it seems likely Apogee will not get more than 4 votes. This is enough to tie with Snow if Murska stays.
The 50/50 number comes from the assumption that those online (Snow, Cao, RA, Xi) all vote Apogee. Two of us are already voting, RA says he'll come back and vote so Xi is the only real Wild Card.
Wolf!Murska has a third choice. Wait until someone else votes Apogee before joining himself.
Wolf!Murska is online and if you (or someone else) logs on to vote Apogee then Wolf!Murska pops in and joins too. It's less town cred (obviously) but enough to get through a day.
You're also forgetting that Wolves should desperately want Apogee alive at this point. Apogee's power is to connect people through QTs and gac is out as the Medium. If Apogee lives even one night, that's an open invitation to connect with the Neutral and get gac on the side of the Wolves.
tl;dr In my mind, Wolf!Murska waits to sacrifice a Wolf power role until absolutely necessary. Wolf!Murska stays online but doesn't say anything until/unless someone else shows up.
Really, your argument about Wolves joining the Apogee wagon for towncred makes more sense for Xihirli since she only voted Apogee after it was the leading wagon (4 v 3 v 2).
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2021-08-17, 02:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
Re: Afterlife
However, if I were a committed wolf making a big gambit and intending to pull the game home with it, I would certainly not be coasting during the following days, content to pay little attention and not steer the boat.
I can't be both an evil mastermind who's actively hoodwinking the entire game and a lazy goon unwilling to put in effort to get townies lynched.
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2021-08-17, 02:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Afterlife
Actually,
Xihirli, how's it going with your vote on a person who can possibly be verified by a night ability? Your vote on Apogee did only come once he was going to be lynched.
Votecount:
Batcathat (3): gac3, Murska, bladescape
Murska (2): Batcathat, Aventine
Aventine (1): Book Wombat
Book Wombat (1): Xihirli
Xihirli (1): CaoimhinTheCapeLast edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-08-18 at 12:44 PM.
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2021-08-17, 03:57 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Afterlife
I don't think I have anything to add to the discussion about Murska's Apogee vote that hasn't already been said. There's certainly an interpretation where Murska is town, but it's not some complete guarantee for his innocence like blade seems to think.
I don't see why you couldn't do a clever/ballsy move and then hang back, whether for tactical reasons (if that's what you did, it seems to have worked quite well) or just because you're busy.
Anyway, if you have some actual suspicions against me and didn't just jump at gac's vote, would you care to share them?
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2021-08-17, 04:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
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2021-08-17, 04:54 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Afterlife
Yeah, and instead of Snow or someone else who had an actual chance to get lynched. I missed the latter half of that day (I thought that I would have time to post before EoD and that nothing much was going to change anyway, obviously I was sorely mistaken on both counts ).