The Thing

[JeenLeen]

@JeenLeen why did you pick Grek to vote for instead of Book Wombat, when you said that Grek's analysis seemed townie? I know you gave Wombat towncred for voting Caerulea, but Grek also voted Caerulea?

In short, no good reason, but here are the 'meh' reasons:
-a wolf wants to seem towny, and Grek's analysis looked like something that is helpful in a general way but didn't really push in a way that would hurt the Things. In other words, her analysis looks towny, but it doesn't seem dangerous enough to the Things that the Things wouldn't post it.
Thus, I could see it as an original Thing.
She also looks like someone who could be converted and be consistent in her posts from D1 to D2 (though that is also true of most everyone.)
-I don't see any reason the Things would convert Book Wombat as opposed to someone else. Not meaning that as an insult, but just that we don't know what tactic the Thing would go for in deciding who to convert, so any of the potentials could look ideal based on what tactic they pick.
-I can see Thing!BookWombat distance-voting Caerulea, but I could also read it as towncred. Yeah, that is inconsistent, but, well, it's inconsistent because it's a hard thing to read.

Thinking back, I guess I have a somewhat better reason in that I think Grek could be an original Thing or be a good conversion target.

How early/late in D1 did Grek starting voting for Caerulea? Was the already a wagon on her?
(I'm in the middle of something and not good to look over the vote patterns right now.) If Grek did vote Caerulea non-randomly early D1, but when it wasn't yet apparent a wagon was forming on Caerulea and voting would be good cover... well, then I'll probably shift my vote to someone more likely.

[AvatarVecna]

Interesting that most people are going for two votes on candidates for the original Thing, rather than voting for a possible conversion. I guess the difference is that most people have two candidates they're unsure about, whereas I was pretty sure Caoimhin was the original Thing.

That being said, I hadn't considered that Caerulea might have been expecting to move away from their list D2. They did mention that they would have pushed for re-testing the first two people D2, so I guess it's possible that BookWombat could be a Thing despite being tested D2 on Caerulea's list. Still seems unnecessarily risky on Caerulea's part, but maybe Caerulea thought it was balanced out by them being moved to D2 instead of D1.

As such, and because my Valmark vote was pretty sketchy, I'm switching my votes to CaiomhinTheCape and BookWombat. (The Caoimhin vote hasn't changed, I'm just including it here for clarity.)

@Grek what do you think about my/JeenLeen's argument that PoR would be inactive and therefore wouldn't have converted last night?

@JeenLeen why did you pick Grek to vote for instead of Book Wombat, when you said that Grek's analysis seemed townie? I know you gave Wombat towncred for voting Caerulea, but Grek also voted Caerulea?

1) If we don't know who made the conversion, we're basically guessing blindly on who they would've converted. And random guessing is death for town. We can't base it too much on information from yesterday since anybody (even JeenLeen/The Outsider) could've been converted.

2) We can analyze D1 to figure out who the original Thing was. Already, we know that JeenLeen and The Outsider can't be originals. Apogee1, Elenna, and Valmark pretty quickly called out Caerulea on her plan, so I think they're safe. PartyOfRouges is inactive, so unless they're faking inactivity they're safe. That's 6 of the 10 players, leaving me and three others who are likely tge other original Thing.

Now, we could continue analyzing D1 and trying to sus outbwhich otyer person was an original imposter whioe it's still easy to do. Ooooooor we can randomly guess at who got converted.

For future reference, it might he worthwhile to state who we would've converted if we were the original Thing, so we have something to follow up with if we catch an original today. Me personally, I would've converted Grek, for being an experienced player in general, but most people don't have enough experience with Grek to read them as well.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright. First order of business is that I get why I'm getting votes today and until I'm cleared with a test, there's gonna be questions about what side I'm on. So as much as I hate to do it, I'll throw a vote on myself (at the bottom of this post, so I keep my two votes together).

Spoiler: Grek's post, spoilered for length

Show

BUT, I think we can do better by excluding everyone The Outsider rated as probably not Thing and (as a bit of an ad-hoc decision based on Caerula moving them in testing order) Book Wombat from consideration as a possible Original Thing, BUT giving them double chances to be converted (on the logic that Things would want to convert people the Town trusts). That changes the numbers to:

~11 in 20 (1 in 2 of being an original thing, plus 1 in 18 of being a converted Scientist)
CaoimhinTheCape
PartyOfRouges

1 in 9 (2 in 18 chance of being a converted scientist)
The Outsider
JeenLeen
Apogee1
Elenna
Valmark
Grek
AvatarVecna
Book Wombat

Subjective factors that didn't make it into the above analysis: I personally think Elenna, Valmark and especially AvatarVecna are more suspicious than The Outsider rates them as being, but still rate them as being more likely to have been Town than Thing yesterday. Also, I believe that not posting on D1 is a terrible practice and that the fact that PartyOfRouges always does this should not be regarded as evidence of trustworthiness.

I don't like this analysis by Grek? We go from an original list of everyone possible as an original thing being cut down to only myself and PartyOfRogues as original Things. That leaves out the options of anyone bussing, mostly...

BookWombat, who voted Caerulea after it was clear there was a wagon on her, because "RNG votes on Day 1 are fine."
AvatarVecna, who could have bussed after Caerulea got a few votes and didn't have a chance to abandon ship cleanly before end of day.
Or really anyone deciding to bus early and then not having a graceful way of getting off the wagon.

---

Interesting that most people are going for two votes on candidates for the original Thing, rather than voting for a possible conversion. I guess the difference is that most people have two candidates they're unsure about, whereas I was pretty sure Caoimhin was the original Thing.

I think going for the original Thing is actually the better play here, since we can eliminate some options right off the bat (JeenLeen and Outsider, a few people who pushed Caerulea early on) whereas we're shooting a little more in the dark with who got converted (I'd guess myself, PoR, probably Book Wombat are the only ones not likely to be converted).

Once we get who we assume is the original thing, it might help us figure out who they picked.



On that note, I'm not a fan of Book Wombat picking JeenLeen to test - we just cleared Jeen of being an original Thing, so conversion is the only option. If we're going to test someone for being a good conversion target, I'd rather test someone new before circling around to Jeen again.

---

2) We can analyze D1 to figure out who the original Thing was. Already, we know that JeenLeen and The Outsider can't be originals. Apogee1, Elenna, and Valmark pretty quickly called out Caerulea on her plan, so I think they're safe. PartyOfRouges is inactive, so unless they're faking inactivity they're safe. That's 6 of the 10 players, leaving me and three others who are likely tge other original Thing.

...

For future reference, it might he worthwhile to state who we would've converted if we were the original Thing, so we have something to follow up with if we catch an original today. Me personally, I would've converted Grek, for being an experienced player in general, but most people don't have enough experience with Grek to read them as well.

I'm not sure I'm ready to completely discount PartyOfRogues from being an original thing, it's possible that PoR has been busy in general, having time to post a night action but not around for the beginning of the Day (aside from myself, Valmark and Apogee haven't had a chance to post yet on Day 2 so it's not like it's that sketchy yet). I agree that PoR doesn't feel like a helpful vote yet, unless he's the last one who could possibly be an original thing.

On that note, if we're going to discuss who is likely to be converted, I'd say we do a list like yesterday, rather than just pick the one person we would convert. I'll have my list(s) up later today.

---

@Rogue_alchemist What's the rules on replacing someone who hasn't posted in thread for a few days?



Voting CaoimhinTheCape and Book Wombat

Book Wombat's vote easily comes off as bussing at the end of the day, while not adding any arguments to the wagon (voting because of RNG). Also don't like the Jeen Leen vote when I think it's better to focus on the original thing.

The vote on myself is because you won't trust me until I'm cleared.

---

Vote Count:
CaoimhinTheCape (7): Elenna, The Outsider, Grek, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape
Book Wombat (4): The Outsider, AvatarVecna, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape
PartyOfRouges (1): Grek
JeenLeen (1): Book Wombat
Grek (1): JeenLeen


Not Voting: Valmark, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1, Valmark, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1

[JeenLeen]

For future reference, it might he worthwhile to state who we would've converted if we were the original Thing, so we have something to follow up with if we catch an original today. Me personally, I would've converted Grek, for being an experienced player in general, but most people don't have enough experience with Grek to read them as well.

Could you spell out better how that would help the Town? I see 4 possible responses, none of these are really helpful to Town.

• Townie tells the truth
• Townie lies (for... reasons?)
• Thing tells the truth (unlikely, but good WIFOM move)
• Thing lies (likely, though leads to similar WIFOM I guess)

Yes, it is more info given to Town (e.g., AV says she would've converted Grek N1), but it's info I only see causing confusion and WIFOM cycles, and possibly making us waste tests on Townies because the Townie says they would have converted someone who flipped Thing.
You also add it almost as an after-thought to more detailed analysis, which seems a good way for a Thing to throw out a misleading idea without it probably coming back to bite them.

So this suggestion makes me a little suspicious of you, AV, but I'd like to hear more why you think getting this would help Town before switching a move. I realize I might be overlooking something. (I also want to see how some other people vote before potentially changing my vote.)

- - - Updated - - -

ADD-ON: Cao ninja'd me writing this, so I haven't responded to or read his post yet. Will do later when have time.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm not sure I'm ready to completely discount PartyOfRogues from being an original thing, it's possible that PoR has been busy in general, having time to post a night action but not around for the beginning of the Day (aside from myself, Valmark and Apogee haven't had a chance to post yet on Day 2 so it's not like it's that sketchy yet). I agree that PoR doesn't feel like a helpful vote yet, unless he's the last one who could possibly be an original thing.

I'm not 100% clearing anybody as an original Thing except tye 2 people we've already tested. But the list is divided into sections. There's three people I know can't he original things (the two tested and myself), there's one person I'm 95% sure isn't an original Thing (Apogee1), there's two people I'm maybe 80% sure are town (Elenna/Valmark), and tyere's one person I'm 60% sure is town (PartyOfRouges). POR is the weakest clear, but it's based on something rather than nothing. This leaves three people:

Grek, who has some some good analysis but is harder to read, which makes ke worried we're all misreading her as townish.

CaoimhinTheCape, who has also done some good analysis but defended Caerulea. To be fair, The Outsider did that too, among many other things, and turned out innocent.

Book Wombat, who's been relatively low-activity and could've jumped on Caerulea's wagon late because they didn't want to bus until it was inevitable.

So whichever two we ejd up testing today, if that doesn't find a thing I'm looking at voting the third plus POR tomorrow.

On that note, if we're going to discuss who is likely to be converted, I'd say we do a list like yesterday, rather than just pick the one person we would convert. I'll have my list(s) up later

That's probably a better approqch than mine, yeah. Bit more comprehensive.

Will get up a proper list and full reasoning when I'm not on mobile.

Could you spell out better how that would help the Town? I see 4 possible responses, none of these are really helpful to Town.

• Townie tells the truth
• Townie lies (for... reasons?)
• Thing tells the truth (unlikely, but good WIFOM move)
• Thing lies (likely, though leads to similar WIFOM I guess)

Yes, it is more info given to Town (e.g., AV says she would've converted Grek N1), but it's info I only see causing confusion and WIFOM cycles, and possibly making us waste tests on Townies because the Townie says they would have converted someone who flipped Thing.
You also add it almost as an after-thought to more detailed analysis, which seems a good way for a Thing to throw out a misleading idea without it probably coming back to bite them.

So this suggestion makes me a little suspicious of you, AV, but I'd like to hear more why you think getting this would help Town before switching a move. I realize I might be overlooking something. (I also want to see how some other people vote before potentially changing my vote.)

- - - Updated - - -

ADD-ON: Cao ninja'd me writing this, so I haven't responded to or read his post yet. Will do later when have time.

The long and short of it is that it's more to analyze. Even if everybody lies about their reasoning, we can look at the arguments people are making, figure out what they think looks suspicious, qnd figure out if that's a reasonable level of suspicion. Scum has to fake their leans at least a little, and frequentpy they will judge things as more suspicious or less suspicious than if they saw those same things as a player. It's more information to analyze for scumsigns. Even the fact that I've explained that publicly doesn't change it - they might try to temper their reaction , but they might shift their thoughts in the wrong direction, or in the right direction but the improper amount.

It would be bad if we voted people based on who we think they would've converted, but that's notbwhy we're asking. It's just more to analyze.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm not 100% clearing anybody as an original Thing except tye 2 people we've already tested. But the list is divided into sections. There's three people I know can't he original things (the two tested and myself), there's one person I'm 95% sure isn't an original Thing (Apogee1), there's two people I'm maybe 80% sure are town (Elenna/Valmark), and tyere's one person I'm 60% sure is town (PartyOfRouges). POR is the weakest clear, but it's based on something rather than nothing. This leaves three people:

Your explanation here makes sense, but what I was reading from the earlier post...

2) We can analyze D1 to figure out who the original Thing was. Already, we know that JeenLeen and The Outsider can't be originals. Apogee1, Elenna, and Valmark pretty quickly called out Caerulea on her plan, so I think they're safe. PartyOfRouges is inactive, so unless they're faking inactivity they're safe. That's 6 of the 10 players, leaving me and three others who are likely tge other original Thing.

All you did was call each of them safe, rather than give percentages, which was what confused me.

[rogue_alchemist]

Mechanical Question for the Narrator: is this a Narrator-confirmed fact that a new Thing was made?
If yes, we probably know PoR is not a Thing since they appear inactive. It would be a scheme (e.g., they were late and decided to appear inactive until D2 starts), but I kinda doubt that.

@Rogue_alchemist What's the rules on replacing someone who hasn't posted in thread for a few days?

@JeenLeen, It was not meant to be a narrator confirmed fact of a new conversion, just a nice filler text pointing to the fact that at least 1 Thing still exists. This game is meant to be played with very little narrator confirmed facts.

@CaoTheCape, I think 2 in-game days (at least 5 actual days (48 hours D, 24 hrs N, 48 hr D)) is enough time to see if someone is here or not. So if someone has not responded by the end of 2 in-game days (this includes in the Thing-only QT), then I will have them die, as inactive players make analysis hard and shouldn't draw out the game.

[AvatarVecna]

Your explanation here makes sense, but what I was reading from the earlier post...



All you did was call each of them safe, rather than give percentages, which was what confused me.

Fair, although I did say "safe unless faking inactivity". Of course, it sounds line we've got that possibilitycovered:

@JeenLeen, It was not meant to be a narrator confirmed fact of a new conversion, just a nice filler text pointing to the fact that at least 1 Thing still exists. This game is meant to be played with very little narrator confirmed facts.
@CaoTheCape, I think 2 in-game days (at least 5 actual days (48 hours D, 24 hrs N, 48 hr D)) is enough time to see if someone is here or not. So if someone has not responded by the end of 2 in-game days (this includes in the Thing-only QT), then I will have them die, as inactive players make analysis hard and shouldn't draw out the game.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

@CaoTheCape, I think 2 in-game days (at least 5 actual days (48 hours D, 24 hrs N, 48 hr D)) is enough time to see if someone is here or not. So if someone has not responded by the end of 2 in-game days (this includes in the Thing-only QT), then I will have them die, as inactive players make analysis hard and shouldn't draw out the game.

So, the way I'm reading this is that someone could post in the Thing QT and be counted as active, while not posting in thread?

Just want to be clear - if there's the possibility of someone skating by and posting in private only, that makes a PoR test actually valuable. If PoR would die of inactivity anyway we don't have to bother.

[AvatarVecna]

So, the way I'm reading this is that someone could post in the Thing QT and be counted as active, while not posting in thread?

Just want to be clear - if there's the possibility of someone skating by and posting in private only, that makes a PoR test actually valuable. If PoR would die of inactivity anyway we don't have to bother.

Ibwasn't gonna say it, but my reading of that post is that there's literally zero reason to test POR today. Think about it: we get through the whole of today, still no posts from POR. That's D1/N1/D2. So if POR isn't dead from inactivity, and yet hasn't posted publicly...

...well, we know what to do tomorrow, don't we?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Ibwasn't gonna say it, but my reading of that post is that there's literally zero reason to test POR today. Think about it: we get through the whole of today, still no posts from POR. That's D1/N1/D2. So if POR isn't dead from inactivity, and yet hasn't posted publicly...

...well, we know what to do tomorrow, don't we?

Yeah, 100% agree. My question was more for @rogue_alchemist to confirm my interpretation.

[The Outsider]

Thinking ahead, who exactly would be a good person to convert? Assuming Caoiminh or Wombat is the original...
-POR is seemingly inactive and thus would be a bad choice.
-I'm going to tentatively agree that converting JeenLeen would be a real risky move.
-That leaves us with Valmark, Elenna, Grek, AV, and Apogee. (Also myself, but I'll ignore that for the moment).
If I were a thing, I would be looking to convert those who had gained the most trust. So for me:
1. Apogee1, by virtue of Caerulea wanting to test them.
2. Grek, by virtue of introducing various good ideas like the ranked lists.
3. Elenna,
4. Valmark, both of whom immediately pushed back against Caerulea's plan.
5. AV, who has been seemingly trying to solve the game but is also hard to read.
That's about the order I would try to convert in. That being said, the Thing might have a completely different way of analyzing.

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, 100% agree. My question was more for @rogue_alchemist to confirm my interpretation.

Ah okay. For some reason i readnyour post as advocating to lynch POR today in case they're hiding.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Original Thing

1) Book Wombat - Last vote on the Caerulea wagon, reason being RNG is fine. Doesn't do much to push the wagon forward or do much more on Day 1.

2) PartyOfRouges - literally have no info. Only evidence around is that PoR was near the bottom of Caerulea's list (convenient for Things). But I also don't like this test today.

3) AvatarVecna - Possibility of bussing Caerulea as the fifth vote on the wagon (posting only to vote) and then putting together analysis after. I'm much more confident that the person is between Book Wombat and PartyOfRogues, but AV is my third choice I guess.
4) Apogee1 - Did not vote Caerulea, but gets Townie points for being placed high on Caerulea's list. Off chance of galaxy brain play of Caerulea putting her buddy as a first day lynch instead of herself.

5) Valmark - Also votes Cae early, questioning and then voting. Probably not bussing a buddy.
6) Elenna - First to vote Caerulea, kept pressure on. Probably not bussing a buddy.
7) Grek - Good analysis against Caerulea early in the day, early vote on Cae. Seems to really make a case against Cae so I don't think it's a bus.

-) The Outsider - Not an original Thing
-) JeenLeen - Not an original Thing



Really, I'm confident that we'll get the original Thing between Book Wombat and PartyOfRogues but if we somehow don't AV and Apogee are the next two choices for me.

---

Converted Thing

This list is going to be subject to a lot of WIFOM, but giving it a shot.

1) Apogee1 - A good conversion. Not on people's radar enough to be top of people's Day 1 list, but unlikely to be tested Day 2.
2) Valmark - A good conversion, posted enough Day 1 and looked townie. But going back to people's Day 1 trusted list, was more often in the middle so I'm guessing Val is less likely to get tested than Elenna/Grek below.

3) Elenna - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot.
4) Grek - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot. Slightly lower on the list for being new, I'm guessing a Thing would rather pick someone that they've played with before.
5) AvatarVecna - Always someone you want on your team. Consistently posting, can easily guide the town. However, I'm guessing everyone will decide AV is a good subject for a test sooner or later, so that might scare away Things.

6) JeenLeen - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Jeen more likely to be tested. Same level as Outsider, put Jeen slightly higher just cause I've played more games with him.
7) The Outsider - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Outsider more likely to be tested. Same level as Jeen.

8) Book Wombat - Highly unlikely, since he would come under scrutiny today.
9) PartyOfRouges - No posts on Day 1, don't see any reason to convert.

[JeenLeen]

I agree it'd behoove us to let PoR die due to inactivity instead of wasting a vote on them.

As AV noted, if they don't die of inactivity, then test them. Probably also test them if they "just happen to find the game" right about when they'd die of inactivity.

- - - Updated - - -

I missed that Grek voted Caerulea early on D1, and the arguements for Book Wombat make sense to me, so I'm fine with CaoimhinTheCape and Book Wombat.

And AV makes a good arguement for "why say who you would convert", so... well, I don't have a definitive answer nor really the time to really put myself in a Thing mindset and try to figure it out, but if I were the Thing, I think I'd go for (I guess assuming I hadn't been tested D1):
DEFINITELY NOT: Cao, as I pretty much have to vote him D2. PartyOfRouges, as inactive. The Outsider, as too likely to get tested because they were tested D1--too risky WIFOM cycle.
PROBABLY NOT: AV, as I'd like to convert her, but worried she'd get a vote if no arguements for others just because she's often hard to read.
PROBABLE: Elenna, Valmark, Apogee -- gave good analysis D1, very active, and strong vs. Caerulea, so trusted. Even if we know intellectually that D1 trustworthiness means little about D2 trustworthiness, I reckon some of us emotionally/sub-consciously let it factor into our votes. So, if I were a Thing, I'd want to get someone with that boon.
Maybe also Grek as she wasn't as strongly anti-Caerulea but had good analysis.
If I think about it, I'd probably go not with Elenna or Apogee since, in recent games, I've done poorly when a wolf with them. (No insult towards them meant by this; mostly I screwed up in some way.) And since I had some weak suspicions on Grek (hence voting her D2), I reckon Valmark would be my main choice if I were the Thing.
MAYBE: anyone else, but if I'm looking over the list Book Wombat is the only one left. I didn't realize Book Wombat would likely get heat today, so they're in 'maybe' for me instead of 'no', but I'd probably have been thinking harder about it if I were a Thing.

For ease of reading, here it is numerically:
1. Valmark
2/3. Elenna, Apogee1
4. Grek
5. Book Wombat (again, noting I didn't realize they'd be up for heat)
6. AvatarVecna
7. The Outsider
8. PartyOfRouges
9. Cao (just because I'd have to try to kill them, so an inactive is better, especially when I don't know inactivity is fatal in this game)

[Apogee1]

So I’ve been thinking a little bit about conversion and who it might have been. Or rather, if we should/should not play around some particular conversion scheme.

I think going for two untested makes sense today. They are flatly just twice as likely to be thing, and trying to guess if the remaining thing is more likely to pick a tested player or not is an exercise in futility I think.

So I’d say we gun for two people who look mediocre from d1, and keep an eye out for anyone playing overwhelming differently today.

[JeenLeen]

So I’ve been thinking a little bit about conversion and who it might have been. Or rather, if we should/should not play around some particular conversion scheme.

I think going for two untested makes sense today. They are flatly just twice as likely to be thing, and trying to guess if the remaining thing is more likely to pick a tested player or not is an exercise in futility I think.

So I’d say we gun for two people who look mediocre from d1, and keep an eye out for anyone playing overwhelming differently today.

Any votes for who fits that description?
If I'm following things right, you and Valmark are the only active players who haven't voted, and Valmark has posted yet this Day.

[Grek]

@Elenna In every game that I've played with PoR, they either didn't post or posted minimally on D1, but were never removed for inactivity. This has lead me to assume that it's part of a meta-strategy where they're always quiet on D1, so nobody sees it as scummy or calls them out on it because they always do it, Townie or otherwise. The confirmation that PoR is going to drop dead at the end of the day if they don't post is enough to make me hold off on voting them until tomorrow, though.

As far as Original Thing vs Converted Thing voting goes, I'll be honest: There were a lot of people who seemed solidly Town as of N1, which makes it hard to narrow down who the Thing might have viewed as a safe conversion target. Doing AV's "Who would I have converted?" exercise gives me the following list:

1. Elenna. Trusted by most players, but not Apogee1 level trusted where it'd be obvious.
2. Valmark. Same reasoning, but less familar of a player to me. Less sure of their skill.
3. The Outsider. The fact that he looked scummy even as Town would make him easier to overlook.
4. PartyOfRogues. They'll probably start playing/get replaced at some point, with a fresh history.
5. Apogee1. It's the obvious pick, but sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick.
6. JeenLeen. People seem reluctant to double test, but if they overcame that, they'd test Jeen.
7. AvatarVecna. Always hard to read, will probably get tested soonish no matter what.
8. Book Wombat. Already had some heat yesterday, but seemed to get through it.
9. CaoimhinTheCape. Already had heat yesterday from JeenLeen, worst target to pick today.
10. Grek. Obviously, in this thought experiment I'm not a valid target.
11. Caerula. Invalid target, regardless of if we're in a thought experiment.

General considerations: I'm pretty trusted by the Town, so I don't need to chase trustworthiness quite as much as a hypothetical Book Wombat or AvatarVecna Thing would want to do. But I also know that I'm an obvious D3 pick, so I want someone who is unlikely to get voted on at the same time I get voted on. There is also a preference toward converting people who are making good arguments, not just because of the convincingness-factor (which dries up every night) but because it'll make those people shift toward less good arguments. For a more typical Original Thing, Apogee1 moves up in the listings considerably as a probable conversion target, so they're the one I'm switching my vote to. Besides, they just posted without voting, which is a decidedly different policy from yesterday.

[JeenLeen]

keep an eye out for anyone playing overwhelming differently today.

Besides, they just posted without voting, which is a decidedly different policy from yesterday.

It looks noteworthy that Apogee states keep an eye out for changing playstyles, then Grek notes he changed playstyle.

I'm not 100% what to make of that and who is casts suspicion on, if anyone, but wanted to note it.

---

I wrote this up this morning, but I was wanting to wait to post it until everyone voted, lest it impact the votes. But the point of it is that the votes of the last two voters won't mean a lot in a particular sense, so I don't think posting it now will invalidate its use. And I want to get it posted before I leave my computer for the day... so here it is:


On would Things vote Cao today, if Cao is a Thing?

Due to some suspicion on him already, I can see Cao converting someone and telling them to bus him. Especially since the two first voters (Elenna and The Outsider) voted him, he'd see a wagon is already forming and would probably sacrifice himself to let his comrade get towncred.

So anyone not-super-early voting Cao (Grek, AV, BookWombat, me) I could see as a Thing even if Cao flips Thing. Maybe even Elenna or The Outsider if Cao!Thing was super pessimistic and said to bus him early.

For anyone else voting Cao (e.g., not early day), it's almost certain he's gonna be tested today by that point, so it'd be the Town move to vote him.

In other words, if Cao flips wolf, I don't think it 100% exonerates anyone from being the convert based on today's votes alone (but hopefully other analysis will let us root out the convert.)

Also--and I know I already stated this in an earlier post, but want to restate--if Cao flips wolf, I doubt he's a convert since some suspicion was already on him and it looked likely he'd get tested D2. So, if he flips, we need to try to discern who he converted N1 and vote them during the Day 2 Extension. Or if anyone looks shadey D2 for other reasons.

[Apogee1]

It looks noteworthy that Apogee states keep an eye out for changing playstyles, then Grek notes he changed playstyle.

I'm not 100% what to make of that and who is casts suspicion on, if anyone, but wanted to note it.

Meh I didn't vote until the end of my second post yesterday either.

Of the not-yet-tested crowd, I am probably considering BookWombat, Cao the most. Then my outside pick is maybe Valmark? I had a thought there earlier that distancing d1 might be the way to go but idk if I want to pursue that this earlier when there are more obvious considerations.

I do want to take another look through posts today and all before locking in a vote but later probably.

[Valmark]

So, Caerulea, Outsider and Jeen were tested D1.

Elenna pushed back against Caerulea's plan even if it was advantageous enough for them (it would have taken until D3 to kill the original Things) so I'd say I won't vote for her.

AV seemed aggressive enough that she either decided to bus Caerulea because it looked like they were a lost cause or she was extremely convinced of the Thinginess (at least apparently to me).

POR is inactive apparently (note: they've been online, so I'm guessing they either ghosted, are being silent like Grek said or haven't noticed the game start though I find that doubtful).

Grek has pulled out some cool ideas- I don't know her enough to gauge if those are good posts or bad posts (bad meaning 'clever wolf') but I want to trust her.

My discussion with Apogee1 made me think of them as Town, despite what it looked like. I especially liked that he pointed out how what he did regarding Caerulea's plan shouldn't have been Townie- plus, I kinda hope Caerulea wouldn't have proposed something that could lead to a lynch of a fellow Thing first thing (ahr ahr) in the Day.

This leaves, by exclusion, Book Wombat and CaoimhinTheCape. I have no strong opinion on either of them even.

As far as catching the new Thing goes...
Welp, that's a good question. I haven't gotten turned (pointless to say that, I know) and as a Thing I would have targeted those that seemed to be the worst enemies to have- currently these would be AV and Grek, but it's no sure thing since that would be true only for myself.

Imo catching the 'old' Thing should help targeting the 'new' Thing.

[JeenLeen]

Meh I didn't vote until the end of my second post yesterday either.

<snip>

I do want to take another look through posts today and all before locking in a vote but later probably.

That's fair. The metagame of this forum tends to look poorly on posting without voting, but I can get your rationale.
Also, at least a couple games when you've been a wolf, your posts have felt sort of rambling, more stream of consciousness. I don't necessarily mean that in a bad way (it has a real air of sincerity to it), and maybe it's a tell you're aware of or unaware of. But this game, including this Day, you don't seem like that, so I'm inclined to think you're still Town (though you are on my list of potential new Things if we hit Cao as a Thing this Day).

Imo catching the 'old' Thing should help targeting the 'new' Thing.

I share this hope. If we happen to catch both with our basic vote, that's great, but my more realistic hope is that we catch the one Thing and, based on who flips and what's happened with them, be able to get better odds of catching the other Thing with our extra vote. Even if we can't eliminate the Things and win this Day, if we can keep them to 1 Thing, that's good.

[Valmark]

Meh I didn't vote until the end of my second post yesterday either.

Of the not-yet-tested crowd, I am probably considering BookWombat, Cao the most. Then my outside pick is maybe Valmark? I had a thought there earlier that distancing d1 might be the way to go but idk if I want to pursue that this earlier when there are more obvious considerations.

I do want to take another look through posts today and all before locking in a vote but later probably.

Did I miss something saying we can't change our votes? Why would you need to 'lock' a vote?

[Elenna]

1) If we don't know who made the conversion, we're basically guessing blindly on who they would've converted. And random guessing is death for town. We can't base it too much on information from yesterday since anybody (even JeenLeen/The Outsider) could've been converted.

2) We can analyze D1 to figure out who the original Thing was. Already, we know that JeenLeen and The Outsider can't be originals. Apogee1, Elenna, and Valmark pretty quickly called out Caerulea on her plan, so I think they're safe. PartyOfRouges is inactive, so unless they're faking inactivity they're safe. That's 6 of the 10 players, leaving me and three others who are likely tge other original Thing.

Now, we could continue analyzing D1 and trying to sus outbwhich otyer person was an original imposter whioe it's still easy to do. Ooooooor we can randomly guess at who got converted.

For future reference, it might he worthwhile to state who we would've converted if we were the original Thing, so we have something to follow up with if we catch an original today. Me personally, I would've converted Grek, for being an experienced player in general, but most people don't have enough experience with Grek to read them as well.

I'm not sure knowing who did the conversion helps all that much, since it seems like most people's lists of who they would convert are fairly similar. We can probably narrow down a shorter list right now of 5-6 people who are more likely to be converted, and I don't think finding the original Thing necessarily shortens that list much, given that their list is certainly full of WIFOM.

My main issue with putting both our votes on original-Thing candidates today is that the Thing almost certainly didn't convert anyone who would be strongly suspected of being an original Thing, because they wouldn't want their new recruit to be voted off quickly. There's some WIFOM there, I guess, but it would be immensely stupid for the Thing to have converted Caoimhin last night. Book Wombat I could maaaybe see as a conversion if the Thing was hoping they would be saved by their place on Caerulea's list, but still, it seems very unlikely.

So if we put two votes on possible original Things, we're almost guaranteed to hit the original Thing (if it's not Caoimhin or Wombat, or PoR who will be tested by the autolynch, I will be very surprised and impressed), but we're almost certain not to hit the converted Thing.

OTOH if we put one vote on the most likely original Thing, and one vote on a likely conversion, we have a ~1/5 or 1/6 chance of testing the conversion (maybe a bit less in case the Thing did something unusual, maybe a bit more because analyzing a day's worth of posts is hopefully better than random chance). But we also may not successfully test the original Thing. I think it's probably Caoimhin, but then I also thought that about Outsider yesterday.

So it seems to me that which strategy is better depends on how certain you are of getting the original Thing in one test. I was nearly certain it was Caoimhin at the start of the day, hence my vote for Valmark, but after thinking some more and reading others' arguments I'm less convinced of Wombat's innocence, so I moved that vote to Wombat.

As for who I would convert:

As far as I can see, there's a few possible options for "who would the Thing convert":

• People who looked trustworthy at the end of D1: based on the logic above this and most people's lists, this includes Apogee and Book Wombat (based on Caerulea's list), JeenLeen and TheOutsider (based on passing tests), and myself, Valmark and Grek (based on generally seeming trustworthy to multiple people)
• People who are good players and good at acting towny: AV and Valmark would be at the top of this list, IMO.
• People who are unlikely to be tested D2: If I were a Thing, I might be tempted to convert JeenLeen or Outsider, just because people might be reluctant to spend a test on the same person twice in a row.

And, of course, there's WIFOM involved: the Thing might want to avoid converting good players, for example, because they're the obvious target, but then maybe they would know we would think that so they'd be find with converting good players, but then... insert infinite loop here.

I probably wouldn't end up going with JeenLeen or Outsider, just because that possibility is even more prone to WIFOM than the rest of this list. For example, JeenLeen's post where they basically argue "I don't think we should test Outsider because they feel safe to town, so they'll probably get retested, so wolves wouldn't convert them, so we shouldn't test them". So much wine. If I were a Thing, I wouldn't want to try and predict which side of that infinite loop Town would choose. As mentioned above I guessed that town wouldn't want to spend a test to re-test someone, but I wouldn't want to take the risk.

Here's my list of conversion targets:

• Valmark and Apogee, in no particular order. I think Valmark is better at looking townie (no offense), but that might make them too obvious of a pick. I'd probably end up choosing between them using RNG, in an attempt to be less predictable.
• Below that is JeenLeen and Outsider, I guess. Maybe JeenLeen before Outsider since I think the former did better at not looking suspicious D1.
• AV and Grek. They're fairly low on my list because if I was the Thing, I'd know that Caoimhin and Wombat weren't Things, so I'd know that AV and Grek would probably be the next candidates suspected of being the original Thing, and therefore they'd have a good chance of being tested D3. If I were in Caoimhin or Wombat's position and knew I would likely be tested the next day, I would have AV and Grek above JeenLeen and Outsider.
• Book Wombat. It's worth noting that when this day started I didn't expect so many people to vote Wombat, so if I were a Thing they might be higher up on my list, because I wouldn't expect them to be a target for testing. But based on D1 they seem fairly likely to make posts that seem suspicious, so I probably still wouldn't put them above AV and Grek. Really this just means that I might consider them as a possibility instead of immediately going "oh heck no".
• Caoimhin. There's the "oh heck no". Why would I pick someone who was clearly going to be tested today?
• PoR. If I was the Thing, I would know for sure that he wasn't posting in the Thing QT, and I definitely wouldn't recruit someone who was almost certain to ghost.

@Elenna In every game that I've played with PoR, they either didn't post or posted minimally on D1, but were never removed for inactivity. This has lead me to assume that it's part of a meta-strategy where they're always quiet on D1, so nobody sees it as scummy or calls them out on it because they always do it, Townie or otherwise. The confirmation that PoR is going to drop dead at the end of the day if they don't post is enough to make me hold off on voting them until tomorrow, though.

I remembered that PoR has been pretty quiet in the past, but I didn't remember if they were particularly quiet D1. Honestly I think they might just be bad at remembering to check threads and realizing games have started? Regardless, given the autolynch, no reason to check them now. If they don't auto (either by suddenly showing up or just by mysteriously not autolynching), we can vote them tomorrow. Especially if we don't catch the original Thing today.

[Valmark]

Right, does POR still get auto-lynched if the Day is extended by catching a Thing? Probably not, but better to ask.

[AvatarVecna]

Will get up a proper list and full reasoning when I'm not on mobile.

Ugh today's been a complete mess. My list in order, on the assumption that I was the lone Thing last night:

1. Grek: Skilled player, low post count, and nobody's played with them enough to get a really good feel for them. This is part of why Grek is on my shortlist of people to check.
2. The Outsider: After almost literally everybody voted them D1 on super-suspicious stuff, and it turned out TO was just villager, town's gonna be wrestling with a good bit of guilt if a similar situation crops up later. Is town really going to bandwagon this person again, for looking less suspicious than they did when they were innocent?
3. JeenLeen: A highly-skilled player with a good deal of experience, they're not somebody I want out against me if I can help it. Ranked lower than TO because while I think it's gonna take a pretty solid case to get TO lynched for a while, I'm about 80% certain JeenLeen will get retested D4, and the remaining 20% is the possibility that the JeenLeen test gets delayed until D5. Still, getting three day-phases of Thing!JeenLeen misleading town would be pretty nice.
4. Apogee1: It makes more sense to hunt down the original Thing first, then try to figure out who they would've converted, and Apogee1 is going to be the last person tested as an Original Thing just because of how everything went down.
5. Valmark: Skilled player being townread that I'd prefer to have misdirecting my enemies, buuuuuut Valmark hasn't been tested yet and that test will likely happen sooner than JL's second test.
6. Elenna: Exactly same situation as Valmark. Either one could be in either place, it doesn't make much difference.
7. Book Wombat: Came out of the Caerulea-flip looking pretty fishy, although definitely 3rd fishiest behind Cao and TO. Almost certainly getting tested D2, maybe D3.
8. CaoimhinTheCape: The only other person to get a vote in the third test, and it stood to reason that if the game continued, Cao would get tested D2. Bad conversion choice.
9. PartyOfRouges: Based on the assumption that I was the only Thing last night, POR would be actually inactive. Even if there's no autolynch rules (and you can bet I would've asked about that privately before even considering them), that's still a Thing who won't take actions to protect teammates, and who won't convert people if I die. No thank you.

[Book Wombat]

I don't mind being voted for but since a lot of people are saying I voted for Caerulea late (if I understood correctly), I made the post right after seeing that the game started and reading through the thread.

[rogue_alchemist]

Did I miss something saying we can't change our votes? Why would you need to 'lock' a vote?

Right, does POR still get auto-lynched if the Day is extended by catching a Thing? Probably not, but better to ask.

You can change your votes as often as you like, I just ask that you post both votes every time you vote so that I can count it easier. I start with the most recent vote posts and work my way back, so if you made a recent vote, I count that, even if you didn't cross out your old votes. Crossing out your old votes is still preferred and helpful, but I don't want anyone to pull tricks by posting new votes and then arguing that they never crossed out old votes, so it was a "gotcha".

I will auto-lynch players at the beginning of night phase after the conditions are met, so in this case PoR won't get auto-lynched before the extended vote.

[JeenLeen]

I remembered that PoR has been pretty quiet in the past, but I didn't remember if they were particularly quiet D1. Honestly I think they might just be bad at remembering to check threads and realizing games have started? Regardless, given the autolynch, no reason to check them now. If they don't auto (either by suddenly showing up or just by mysteriously not autolynching), we can vote them tomorrow. Especially if we don't catch the original Thing today.

I don't mind being voted for but since a lot of people are saying I voted for Caerulea late (if I understood correctly), I made the post right after seeing that the game started and reading through the thread.

You can change your votes as often as you like, I just ask that you post both votes every time you vote so that I can count it easier. I start with the most recent vote posts and work my way back, so if you made a recent vote, I count that, even if you didn't cross out your old votes. Crossing out your old votes is still preferred and helpful, but I don't want anyone to pull tricks by posting new votes and then arguing that they never crossed out old votes, so it was a "gotcha".

I will auto-lynch players at the beginning of night phase after the conditions are met, so in this case PoR won't get auto-lynched before the extended vote.

This is the first game where the Town players did not get a QuickTopic. I think that increases the chance of someone not noticing the game starts, since they don't get the PM in their inbox.
So I'm willing to believe Book Wombat's statement and what they are posting about in the quotation above. (Not saying that vindicates them completely, but it's a point in their favor.) I'm still for testing Book Wombat today as they could be the original Thing (though I'm betting on Cao) or could be a decent conversion target, so I'm really hoping we have a decent chance of getting at least one Thing with that pair and maybe getting another on the extension.

Also noting it as a general "maybe PoR ghosted because they didn't notice the game started." I'm not sure if it's fair or not, but, rogue_alchemist, have you tried PMing them to make sure they are aware?
I'm not saying you should PM them or should even answer my question. Doing so might be (and probably is) unfair, as it gives information to the Town (if you publicly answer) and/or helps one faction (if you PM him and he joins).

Also, thanks for the clarification on votes. I've crossed my changes out, I think, but it's good to feel safe if one forgets.

Who's a Thing, if Cao and Book Wombat flip Town

This is one of those things I feel iffy saying since I might be a Thing by D3, but here's some analysis for later (hopefully the Day 2 Extension)..

If Cao and Book Wombat both flip Town, I think I'd suspect AV or Grek as the Original Thing the most.
Grek = I could see her as a Thing masquerading as Town really well--though that might be because I keep forgetting when/how she voted Caerulea D1
AV = all her D1 great-for-Town math is something I could see Thing!AV doing as a cover, since she'd realize (especially with the Caerulea-scheme fallout) that proposing a scheme over analysis won't trick the Town into doing it, it'll just get the Town to vote you for putting forth an anti-Town plan. Everything she says seems great Town, but, then again, she's AV

Of course, could be PoR, but hoping auto-lynch takes care of that.
If it's someone else, they did some really risky and impressive distancing! (I could kinda see Valmark's accusation/queries into Caerulea's plan as being a small distancing move that looks better in light of the wagon that formed after. E.g., Thing!Valmark might've said it as distancing, but then it ballooned into part of a wagon by accident, giving him significant towncred. But I'd rather test the others first.)

If Cao flips Town but Book Wombat flips wolf, I'd want to look at one of those three (Grek, AV, or Valmark). Though I definitely understand arguments for other converts.

- - - Updated - - -

New Thought: almost everyone is voting Book Wombat and Cao today. Which is good if one/both of them are Things, but terrible for later analysis if they aren't. Also (assuming one of them is a Thing but not the other), lets the other Thing hide behind a safe vote. So what if we discuss who'd we'd vote for during the extension now?
Of course, our future-vote could change in light of who flips Thing. So maybe post under a thought experiment of "if neither flip Thing, who do I suspect", "if Cao flips", "if Wombat flips", or... well, no real reason to think about if both flip since then Town presumably wins.

This should also help us root out potential Things later by seeing who changes their attitude once converted. In other words, this is akin to AV's motivation to ask us who we'd convert if we were Things. Even if some of us lie, it'll give info that could potentially be useful.

My answers are in my above post, but it'd probably boil down to AV or Grek regardless of who flips what. Less likely to vote AV if Cao flips wolf, since I reckon AV isn't as safe a conversion choice. Though WIFOM cycles up, for if Cao!Thing would realize he and Book Wombat are likely to get tested D2, it'd probably feel safe to convert AV.

[AvatarVecna]

AV = all her D1 great-for-Town math is something I could see Thing!AV doing as a cover, since she'd realize (especially with the Caerulea-scheme fallout) that proposing a scheme over analysis won't trick the Town into doing it, it'll just get the Town to vote you for putting forth an anti-Town plan. Everything she says seems great Town, but, then again, she's AV

I think you got a very bad impression from my math post. Randomly guessing means town loses three times as often as they win. The default math for this cult game is heavily stacked against town by default, hence why I later say:

II mostly wanted to figure out how good random testing could work for town because it gives a decent-ish idea of the default - if we guess worse than random, how likely are we to win? If we guess better than random, how likely are we to win? And the answer to both appears to be that the deck is stacked against us, which just goes to show how important analysis is going to be to this game in particular.

The math is very much not good for town, so we need good analysis in order to win.

Let's put it another way, so that we're all on the same page: we started D1 with two Things, and we killed one of them but failed to find the second. Today, we have two Things again. We're exactly where we started, except there's one less townie. If we find one Thing every single day, we eventually lose. We have to find two Things the same day at least once. And if there's every a day where we find no Things at all? Then we need either one day where we find three, or two days where we find two.

New Thought: almost everyone is voting Book Wombat and Cao today. Which is good if one/both of them are Things, but terrible for later analysis if they aren't. Also (assuming one of them is a Thing but not the other), lets the other Thing hide behind a safe vote. So what if we discuss who'd we'd vote for during the extension now?
Of course, our future-vote could change in light of who flips Thing. So maybe post under a thought experiment of "if neither flip Thing, who do I suspect", "if Cao flips", "if Wombat flips", or... well, no real reason to think about if both flip since then Town presumably wins.

This should also help us root out potential Things later by seeing who changes their attitude once converted. In other words, this is akin to AV's motivation to ask us who we'd convert if we were Things. Even if some of us lie, it'll give info that could potentially be useful.

My answers are in my above post, but it'd probably boil down to AV or Grek regardless of who flips what. Less likely to vote AV if Cao flips wolf, since I reckon AV isn't as safe a conversion choice. Though WIFOM cycles up, for if Cao!Thing would realize he and Book Wombat are likely to get tested D2, it'd probably feel safe to convert AV.

If we get a third check because Cao or BW was the original thing, here's people's thoughts on conversion targets so far (with some guesses on where they'd place themselves in the list, since that's not quite the same scenario as the original question they were answering).

Rank	AvatarVecna	CaoimhinTheCape	Elenna	Grek	JeenLeen	The Outsider
1	Grek	Apogee1	Valmark/Apogee1	Elenna	Valmark	Apogee1
2	The Outsider	Valmark	Valmark/Apogee1	Valmark	Elenna/Apogee1	Grek
3	JeenLeen	Elenna	JeenLeen/The Outsider	The Outsider	Elenna/Apogee1	Elenna
4	Apogee1	Grek	JeenLeen/The Outsider	PartyOfRouges	Grek	Valmark
5	Valmark/Elenna	AvatarVecna	AvatarVecna/Grek	Apogee1	AvatarVecna	AvatarVecna
6	Valmark/Elenna	JeenLeen	AvatarVecna/Grek	JeenLeen	The Outsider	JeenLeen
7	PartyOfRouges	The Outsider	PartyOfRouges	AvatarVecna	PartyOfRouges	PartyOfRouges
8	AvatarVecna	PartyOfRouges	Elenna	Grek	JeenLeen	The Outsider

Apogee1 15
Valmark 16
Elenna 23
Grek 24.5
JeenLeen 32.5
The Outsider 29.5
AvatarVecna 35.5
PartyOfRouges 40

So if Cao or Book Wombat flip Thing, just in general town kinda suspects Apogee1 or Valmark as the conversion, and is pretty convinced that PartyOfRouges and AvatarVecna would've been bad conversion picks in the long run.