Wizards' Guild IC

[Unavenger]

To answer a question in one of my QuickTopic chats: All days are 48 hours and all nights are 48 hours. They'll end at 5pm GMT, or a little later if I can't get to a computer around then.

[kgato503]

Good to see I'm not the only one having problems with time. Are we sure there isn't a Time Mage here?

Also, don't worry too much about talking during Night Phases. While it can be good to discuss things during this time, it normally tends to be quieter than Day Phases. In fact, some games discourage or prohibit night talking.

@ TheOutsider: You mentioned useless votes. I'm guessing that means you were planing to change your vote. Mind if I ask who you were going to change to and why?

[The Outsider]

Honestly, I probably would have just piled on the Xihirli wagon, so it might not have been very useful after all. Mostly, I succeeded in poking Da'Shain, so I wanted to change votes to get more information. I was going to decide who would give more info when I came back, but forum time.

[Caerulea]

The obligatory cat, once a wizard who had been transformed by a errant spell, slept in his basket. While he was asleep, his quill floated over a scrap of parchment, transcribing the makeshift trial of Xihirli and his opinion, for the use of his colleagues the next morning.


Vote History:
1: AvatarVecna - Xihirli, gac3
2: The Outsider - Xihirli, DaShain
3: BasketOfPuppies - flyinglemur
4: Alandra - Libro, flyinglemur, Elenna
5: gac3 - AvatarVecna
6: Caerulea - JeenLeen, flyinglemur
7: Xihirli (Dead, Conjurer) - flyinglemur,
8: flat_footed - Xihirli
9: flyinglemur - gac3, Xihirli
10: Libro - AvatarVecna
11: kgato503 - flyinglemur
12: JeenLeen - The Outsider
13: Da'Shain - flat_footed
14: Elenna - AvatarVecna, Xihirli
15: Alexei - Xihirli


Of these, the only one that strikes me is Elenna. Mostly because she poked AvatarVecna, and then jumped on a bandwagon. Could be distancing? Of course, I also poked someone, and then ended up on a bandwagon, but I was the first vote, so I didn't know what was going to happen. WIFOM and all that as well.
I agree with Alandra that flat_footed and Elenna could have been trying to save one of their own, but I'm not sure how much weight there is, even if flyinglemur is a wolf (if he's not, there is no evidence one way or the other.) flyinglemur's vote was what guaranteed the kill after all.

[kgato503]

Caerulea, I have Da'Shain as voting for flat_footed (sort of, they used green instead of red, but it was counted). Trying to mislead us a little?

[Caerulea]

I spent around 7 minutes looking for that vote before I finally found it. And that was after I knew it was there. No, I just missed it because it wasn't in red. Also, the green they used is nearly the same as black.

[Unavenger]

Tick tock, tick tock...

You have less than 24 hours to perform any night actions!

[JeenLeen]

That's galling. Both the fact that I thought that day one would be several hours longer than it turned out to be and the fact that we've already killed the Conjurer. (I'm not sure whether I would have changed my vote for a forth time or not, but I would have liked a chance to think about it, because I felt extremely indecisive on day one. I probably won't have the time to keep being that active during the next days.)

Well, there are two obvious possibilities: Either flyinglemur is a wolf or they aren't.

The former case would make Elenna and especially flat_footed suspicious, possibly also Alexei. The latter case might mean that the wolves (especially the ones who voted later) kept away from the wagons, because they didn't care who got lynched. Which isn't too helpful, since that list includes six people besides myself.

There is also the fact to consider that there was a wagon on AvatarVecna during the time the wagons on Xihirli and flyinglemur started, if only for a short time, but I'm not sure if that tells us anything.

I get the feeling that, if flyinglemur had died, we'd have a lot more information based on if he's wolf or town. It'd be a shame if he were town and died, but I think it'd have given more info than Xihirli's death gave (which seems to have given less than I anticipated, or I'm just not grasping it yet.)

Otherwise, I pretty much agree with you. I'm going to pause on saying more until the Day starts, both due to real life time constraints and what I'm about to write below.

-----

General question on Night Chatter: I've found in the last couple games that talk during the Night tends to be little, at least after the first Night.
Is part of this that Night chat might favor the wolves, by giving them a sense of who is likely to get day-lynched and thus the wolves have a sense of who to kill. That is, any Information generated during the night is available to everybody, but it's mainly the wolves who would benefit by being able to factor that into who to Night Kill.

I'm not stating this to cast suspicion on those who gave analysis. Rather, I was reflecting upon what merit my doing analysis doing the Night phase would have, and how night talk seemed to trail off in other games, and this occurred to me as one of the possible 'meta' elements of the game I wasn't aware of.

So, to the more experienced players: does that sound right and explain some of the 'less talk during nights' I've seen? Or do y'all think it's relatively safe to chatter during the night?
On the "it is safe and helpful end": it does benefit the Town in giving folk info/insights as to who to use Night Powers on.

[BasketOfPuppies]

The only reason I’ve found to talk at night is if you think you’re gonna be NK’ed. If you post something at night that really helps town, the wolves have a chance to change their NK to you. If you wait until day you stick around longer (and thus are able to help town more).

I’m trying to draw some good conclusions from D1, but keep spiraling downwards into WIFOM.

[JeenLeen]

I’m trying to draw some good conclusions from D1, but keep spiraling downwards into WIFOM.

I've seen the Princess Bride clip, but this is basically like "I know that you know that I know...", but in the sense of "if X then he's a wolf, but then he's Y so he's not a wolf..." and so on, right?

If so: yeah, I get that feeling, too.

[Unavenger]

I've seen the Princess Bride clip, but this is basically like "I know that you know that I know...", but in the sense of "if X then he's a wolf, but then he's Y so he's not a wolf..." and so on, right?

If so: yeah, I get that feeling, too.

"All right. Where is the wolf? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you vote, and find out who is right, and who is dead."
"But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you! Are you the sort of man who would act the way you've been acting if you were a wolf, or act that way if you were town? Now, a clever wolf would act as though they were town, because he would know that only a great fool would vote to lynch a townie. I'm not a great fool, so I clearly cannot vote for the player in front of me! But you must have known I was not a great fool! You would have counted on it, so I clearly cannot vote for the player in front of you!"
"You've made your decision, then?"
"Not remotely! Because your time zone is in Australia. And as you know, your posting patterns don't line up with that time zone unless you don't trust us, and you are clearly not trusted by me, so I clearly cannot vote for the player in front of you..."
"Truly, you have a dizzying intellect."
"Wait 'til I get going! Where was I?"
"Australia"
"Yes, Australia! And you must have suspected that I would have known your time zone, so I can clearly not vote for the player in front of you."
"You're just stalling now."
"You'd like to think that, wouldn't you? You've lynched my lookout, which means you're exceptionally confident, so you could be the wolf trusting on your intellect to save you, so I can clearly not vote for the player in front of you! But you would have learned from your many games of Mafia that anyone can die, so you clearly would have distanced yourselves from the other wolves as far as possible, so I can clearly not vote for the player in front of me!"
"You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work."
"It has worked! You've given everything away, I know where the wolf is!"
"Then make your choice!"
"I will, and I choose..."
[...]
"You guessed wrong!"
"You only think I guessed wrong, that's what's so funny! I switched votes when you were AFK! Hahaha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders!"
[...]
"And to think. All that time it was you who was the wolf."
"We were both wolves. I spent the last few days distancing myself from my fellow wolves."

[AvatarVecna]

I've seen the Princess Bride clip, but this is basically like "I know that you know that I know...", but in the sense of "if X then he's a wolf, but then he's Y so he's not a wolf..." and so on, right?

If so: yeah, I get that feeling, too.

WIFOM (Wine In Front Of Me) is basically spiraling counter-prediction. For the wolves, this generally amounts to "do I kill this obviously-good kill target, or are they so obvious a kill target that the Baner is gonna bane them tonight and waste my nightkill so I should aim my kill elsewhere, or is it obvious that I'd avoid the obviously-optimal kill and so the Baner's not going to bother protecting them since they think I'll think they're baning that target and shoot somewhere else, OR..." and this can spiral forever. Even that's not really a great description of the mental process as a whole, since it can take so many different forms and gets more complicated the more power roles there are involved, but the good news is that, if you play WW/Mafia long enough, you will eventually start to recognize that certain situations send your thoughts spiraling into counter-counter-counter-predictions.

[JeenLeen]

12: JeenLeen - The Outsider

I'll take this as another innocent mistake, but I did shift my vote to Elenna after The Outsider shifted his vote.

[Alandra]

@Unavenger: Except for the last part, that is such an accurate description of my thought processes.

@AvatarVecna: You seem to be surprisingly good informed about what the wolves are thinking.

@BasketOfPuppies: That makes sense. I hope I haven't helped the wolves


- - - Updated - - -

Edit: Grammar - that last sentence didn't make sense before the edit.


- - - Updated - - -

Edit2: Apparently editing is more complicated than I thought.

[AvatarVecna]

@AvatarVecna: You seem to be surprisingly good informed about what the wolves are thinking.

I assure you, it's more of a general example. WIFOM more or less requires people acting opposed, who can counter each other, without knowing who they're countering or what that person is doing. I debated specifying in that example that the "obvious kill target" who was also the "obvious bane target" was a revealed Lover role, but I figured salting the wound isn't gonna earn me any favors from certain unnamed individuals.

[Caerulea]

I'll take this as another innocent mistake, but I did shift my vote to Elenna after The Outsider shifted his vote.

Screw it, I'm not making any more lists.

My opinion of the WIFOM is that if the other person is a competent player, what they say provides no evidence they are town. How they vote can imply they are town, but WIFOM. What they say can suggest they are wolf, and so can how they vote.
Also assume everyone is competent.

[Elenna]

I assure you, it's more of a general example. WIFOM more or less requires people acting opposed, who can counter each other, without knowing who they're countering or what that person is doing. I debated specifying in that example that the "obvious kill target" who was also the "obvious bane target" was a revealed Lover role, but I figured salting the wound isn't gonna earn me any favors from certain unnamed individuals.

...you shut up.

But yeah, WIFOM is basically anything along the lines of "they might do X, except they know we know that, so maybe they won't do X, but maybe they're counting on us thinking that so they will do X, but... " and then it spirals on into uselessness.

[flyinglemur]

I think the most likely people to be wolves are those who didn't vote for either of the two wagons. The wagons formed out of pure day one randomness, and most likely the wolves kept out while letting us non-wolves vote on each other. This gives us a few good possibilities, Jeenleen, DaShain, Alandra, Gaxc3, Libro, Avatar Vecna, and the Outsider. Jeenleen is acting the way he usually does, and seems too helpful to be a wolf. Alandra and Avatar Vecna and the outsider both took their votes off of Xihirili, so I'm inclined to believe they're town.

[AvatarVecna]

I think the most likely people to be wolves are those who didn't vote for either of the two wagons. The wagons formed out of pure day one randomness, and most likely the wolves kept out while letting us non-wolves vote on each other. This gives us a few good possibilities, Jeenleen, DaShain, Alandra, Gaxc3, Libro, Avatar Vecna, and the Outsider. Jeenleen is acting the way he usually does, and seems too helpful to be a wolf. Alandra and Avatar Vecna and the outsider both took their votes off of Xihirili, so I'm inclined to believe they're town.

My vote was trying to start a wagon where I saw suspicion but in the end nobody else followed. Ah well.

[gac3]

I think the most likely people to be wolves are those who didn't vote for either of the two wagons. The wagons formed out of pure day one randomness, and most likely the wolves kept out while letting us non-wolves vote on each other. This gives us a few good possibilities, Jeenleen, DaShain, Alandra, Gaxc3, Libro, Avatar Vecna, and the Outsider. Jeenleen is acting the way he usually does, and seems too helpful to be a wolf. Alandra and Avatar Vecna and the outsider both took their votes off of Xihirili, so I'm inclined to believe they're town.

That theory works... Only if flyinglemur isn't a wolf. If he is then it's likely that a good chunk of the people who voted out xihiril were wolves. The votes stayed pretty consistent on the two bandwagons. If you look at when the votes were cast, the people who voted out xihiril only did so when flying lemur was in the lead (with the exception of the first vote which may have just been intended as bandwagon fun). Perhaps the wolves intended to fly low and vote seperately and only ended up voting together because the bandwagon for flying lemur was so strong and none of the other bandwagons seemed to be taking off without their encouragement. It could also be why flying lemur waited until nearly the last second to change their vote and save themselves. They had to because none of the other towns joined in. That or you are right and they aren't a wolf and they just didn't want to be the one to pull the trigger to evict someone else without their own neck being on the line. Hope that made sense. Writing this on break at work.

Edit: just realized that I was responding to Flyinglemur. Well, that's awkward bit still. You may be right but also, I'm going to wait for some more evidence before jumping on either of our theories.

[flyinglemur]

I responded late simply out of virtue of not checking the thread while at school, when I checked I saw the sudden spike in my votes and changed it because dear lord I would have been lynched.

[gac3]

I responded late simply out of virtue of not checking the thread while at school, when I checked I saw the sudden spike in my votes and changed it because dear lord I would have been lynched.

I get that. Ill admit my theory feels like a bit of a stretch. I avoided the bandwagons because I felt bad signing up to lynch somebody on nothing

[JeenLeen]

I get that. Ill admit my theory feels like a bit of a stretch. I avoided the bandwagons because I felt bad signing up to lynch somebody on nothing

I've felt similar in the past and that's why I stuck with folk I had suspicions of instead of going on one of those wagons. They were weak suspicions, but that's stronger than no suspicion. I'd feel guilty if it were my vote that guaranteed a death that shouldn't have happened.

On the other hand, I have learnt the purpose of wagons (even Day 1), because we can generally get useful information from it. I guess it does spiral into WIFOM about if a given person voted as Town seeking info/randomly or Wolf hoping to solidify a kill, though... but it gives seeds of info to blossom into justified kills later on in the game.

Thus, I think any guilt over a misplaced vote is not really a solid playing tactic, as it's best to get what info we can early on.
But maybe even us sticking to our true suspicions provides info. In that we did have suspicions we vocalized and showed via voting, and there was at least some reason we didn't want to jump on one of the wagons.

[Unavenger]

It wasn't a good day to be a paladin.

The Outsider cleaned their weapon, ready to fight against the vile forces of evil. They offered up a prayer to Mystra, when they heard the door being opened.

"You!"
"Yes, me. I'm the sorcerer. And I'm here to kill you."
"Have at you, then! I will end you!"

They began fighting then, sword against spell, and eventually The Outsider knocked their opponent to the floor. They swung their sword at the sorcerer's neck...

"FIREBALL! WOOOHOOOOOOO!"

The Outsider was launched off the baffled sorcerer.

"Mmm, tell ya what, this stuff is good! Ooh, who are you, yer a bit blurry..."
"Lightning Bolt!"
"Ah, counterspell."

The sorcerer raised his finger to blast another bolt at the evoker.

"A paladin does not die so easily! SMITE EV..."
"LIGHTNING BOLT!"

The Outsider coughed up blood as they were thrown backwards. "I'm still alive. And you're running out of spell slots."

The sorcerer looked a bit pale, then. The Outsider rushed forwards, and then suddenly stopped - something to do with the needle sticking right through their neck, probably.

"That... was all according to plan."

The Outsider was brutally murdered last night. They were the Sword of the Arcane Order. They were burned to death by a fireball, were electrocuted by a lightning bolt, and died from a flawlessly-executed attack.

The Sword of the Arcane Order was a holy paladin of Mystra. They could detect evil, and come morning, they could challenge someone they thought was evil. If they were right and won the challenge, they also won the game.

DAY 2 START

[JeenLeen]

...does that mean we have the Wolves plus two folk with a kill power, that is, the Evoker and some unknown third party (presumably another Neutral)? And they all targeted the same person?
Any insights into what The Outsider did to draw such attention?

Um, well, regardless of what that means, some analysis I've been thinking of but waiting until the Day to state.

---

For two reasons, I'm voting flyinglemur.

One is that I think, if we know if he and AvatarVecna are wolf or town, that will yield a lot of information in conjunction with Xihirli's death the former Day. So even if I'm wrong, it'll yield useful information.

Second, I think there are some minor reasons to suspect flyinglemur. That puts my vote on him instead of AvatarVecna.

The reasons for these two reasons were summed well by Alandra and gac3, so I'l just quote them instead of rewriting it in my own words.

Well, there are two obvious possibilities: Either flyinglemur is a wolf or they aren't.

The former case would make Elenna and especially flat_footed suspicious, possibly also Alexei. The latter case might mean that the wolves (especially the ones who voted later) kept away from the wagons, because they didn't care who got lynched. Which isn't too helpful, since that list includes six people besides myself.

There is also the fact to consider that there was a wagon on AvatarVecna during the time the wagons on Xihirli and flyinglemur started, if only for a short time, but I'm not sure if that tells us anything.

That theory works... Only if flyinglemur isn't a wolf. If he is then it's likely that a good chunk of the people who voted out xihiril were wolves. The votes stayed pretty consistent on the two bandwagons. If you look at when the votes were cast, the people who voted out xihiril only did so when flying lemur was in the lead (with the exception of the first vote which may have just been intended as bandwagon fun). Perhaps the wolves intended to fly low and vote seperately and only ended up voting together because the bandwagon for flying lemur was so strong and none of the other bandwagons seemed to be taking off without their encouragement.

Of course, I may change my vote if persuaded sufficiently.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I keep trying to get something out of D1 but I can’t come up with anything new. I’ll try again once we get more info.

I’m not going to vote quite yet.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Vote Records

Show

Post #

Alandra

Alexei

AvatarVecna

BasketOfPuppies

Caerulea

Da'Shain

Elenna

flat_footed

flyinglemur

gac3

JeenLeen

kgato503

Libro

The Outsider

Xihirli

2

Xihirli

4

Xihirli

JeenLeen

5

Xihirli

JeenLeen

AvatarVecna

7

Xihirli

JeenLeen

AvatarVecna

Xihirli

9

Xihirli

JeenLeen

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Xihirli

14

Libro

Xihirli

JeenLeen

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Xihirli

15

Libro

Xihirli

flyinglemur

JeenLeen

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Xihirli

17

Libro

Xihirli

flyinglemur

JeenLeen

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

19

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

JeenLeen

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

22

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

JeenLeen

AvatarVecna

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

24

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

JeenLeen

AvatarVecna

gac3

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

25

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

AvatarVecna

gac3

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

26

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

AvatarVecna

gac3

The Outsider

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

27

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

AvatarVecna

gac3

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

28

Libro

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

Xihirli

gac3

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

34

flyinglemur

Xihirli

Xihirli

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

Xihirli

gac3

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

35

flyinglemur

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

Xihirli

gac3

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

36

Elenna

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

Xihirli

gac3

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

39

Elenna

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

Xihirli

Xihirli

gac3

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

40

Elenna

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

Xihirli

Xihirli

gac3

AvatarVecna

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

44

Elenna

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

flat_footed

Xihirli

Xihirli

gac3

AvatarVecna

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

46

Elenna

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

flat_footed

Xihirli

Xihirli

Xihirli

AvatarVecna

Elenna

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

48

Elenna

Xihirli

gac3

flyinglemur

flyinglemur

flat_footed

Xihirli

Xihirli

Xihirli

AvatarVecna

Elenna

flyinglemur

AvatarVecna

Da'Shain

flyinglemur

Looking back at the voting record, there's not really that much that seems too suspicious ATM. When Xihirli cast her vote for flyinglemur, obstensibly to save AvatarVecna from the lynch...AV wasn't the one up for death, Xihirli was. It was still pretty early in the day, so lots could've changed, but it's a weird misdirection for a D1 vote - casting a more innocent reason behind voting to save her own behind. Of course, that'd be more of a "public motivation is suspiciously misleading" thing if...y'know...Xihirli wasn't dead, and confirmed villager. It's possible others seeing this so early on helped contribute to her death, beyond just the fact that Xihirli is automatically suspicious, but if what I've been seeing behind-the-scenes the past few games has given me any insight, it's that Xihirli is pretty decent at WW and losing her is a blow to town.

Okay, so it looks like the narration's gonna give us some useful information going forward. It sure looks like there's a town, neutral, and wolf nightkill...and that somehow, all three ended up pointed at The Outsider last night. FWIW it seems like the Evoker was redirected based on ""Mmm, tell ya what, this stuff is good! Ooh, who are you, yer a bit blurry..." but that doesn't line up with any of the public roles AFAICT. Enchanter/Bard block power usage, Illusionist duplicates...hell, Transmuter switches all powers targeting their two targets, so unless all three night kills were targeting somebody and that person got Transmuted with The Outsider...but then wouldn't the narration mention that all three were having some targeting issues? Only the Evoker text seems off...

Very generally speaking, I'd like to hear more from the newer and more quiet players (Alandra, Alexei, and Da'Shain). In particular I'd like to hear if anybody's got info on Da'Shain, since they were The Outsider's vote yesterday...and The Outsider was targeted by three separate nightkills apparently. It's not a guarantee that Da'Shain was among them, or even involved, but they've got motivation, and it's not terrible odds that any particular player was involved given this was at least a four-person cluster****.

[Alandra]

Wow. It's a pity that The Outsider died, not least because that role sounds really useful for the village.

From the description in the first post, I think that there might be a neutral role with the goal to kill all Wizards and Infiltrators alike, which might account for the "flawlessly executed attack".

I agree with Alandra that flat_footed and Elenna could have been trying to save one of their own, but I'm not sure how much weight there is, even if flyinglemur is a wolf (if he's not, there is no evidence one way or the other.) flyinglemur's vote was what guaranteed the kill after all.

Even if flyinglemur's vote was the one that ensured that Xihirli would be killed, it was obvioius that they would vote for whichever counterwagon was in the lead because that was the only way to avoid getting killed.
If anybody, it was flat_footed who decided which one of Xihirli, gac3 and Elenna would form the counterwagon to flyinglemur.

I think the most likely people to be wolves are those who didn't vote for either of the two wagons. The wagons formed out of pure day one randomness, and most likely the wolves kept out while letting us non-wolves vote on each other. This gives us a few good possibilities, Jeenleen, DaShain, Alandra, Gaxc3, Libro, Avatar Vecna, and the Outsider. Jeenleen is acting the way he usually does, and seems too helpful to be a wolf. Alandra and Avatar Vecna and the outsider both took their votes off of Xihirili, so I'm inclined to believe they're town.

@flyinglemur: Actually, I took my vote off you, not Xihirli. Also, deciding not to vote for Xihirli when it seemed likely that either you or Xihirli would get killed is only an indicator for being town if you are a wolf.
(If you are saying that you think we are town because we were part of the wagons at all, then I don't think that works for AvatarVecna, because their vote on Xihirli was the very first of the game when there were no indicators of any wagons whatsoever).


@JeenLeen @AvatarVecna

In general, it is best not to speculate about good power roles - that only helps the wolves.



--------------------------


So ... why might the wolves have picked The Outsider? The best theory I can think of is that they tried to pick a target that the baner wouldn't guess and that wasn't one of the likely next suspects (flyinglemur and the people who voted for Xihirli).

This makes the whole WIFOM discussion from last night (and especially AvatarVecnas contribution) suddenly a lot more suspicious.

Either that or they tried to find a target that would tell us next to nothing, since The Outsider only poked Da'Shain and complained about missing the deadline.

Very generally speaking, I'd like to hear more from the newer and more quiet players (Alandra, Alexei, and Da'Shain). In particular I'd like to hear if anybody's got info on Da'Shain, since they were The Outsider's vote yesterday.

Why do you think that I'm a more quiet player?

I don't think that the wolves killed The Outsider in retaliation for their vote on Da'Shain, especially since The Outsider said during the night that they would have moved the vote elsewhere if they hadn't missed the deadline. So the only effect would be to draw attention to Da'Shain.

[Unavenger]

Please don't take the italicised text to mean anything. Usually it's just that the person in question requested a certain flavour. It's not an attempt to hint at any mechanics.

[AvatarVecna]

Wow. It's a pity that The Outsider died, not least because that role sounds really useful for the village.

From the description in the first post, I think that there might be a neutral role with the goal to kill all Wizards and Infiltrators alike, which might account for the "flawlessly executed attack".

Yeah, probably this one:

"Don't mind me, everyone, just a normal visitor here. Heh... here you were, thinking this was gonna be hard, but it looks like everyone's busy fighting on two fronts. You should be able to do just fine, and be the last one alive. Well, maybe a couple of those other visitors can get out alive too, if you're feeling generous... anyway, you will be told your powers when you are granted this role, and your role will be revealed on death (unless you are disintegrated)."

Even if flyinglemur's vote was the one that ensured that Xihirli would be killed, it was obvioius that they would vote for whichever counterwagon was in the lead because that was the only way to avoid getting killed.
If anybody, it was flat_footed who decided which one of Xihirli, gac3 and Elenna would form the counterwagon to flyinglemur.

Actually that's an interesting point that lines up with one of my general suspicions, that wolves tend to vote later than other people. Beyond wolves in general probably wanting to at least strategize a little bit, flat_footed was probably the first person capable of posting in the thread by virtue of being the one to approve it...and yet their first post is more than a full 24 hours into D1.

This makes the whole WIFOM discussion from last night (and especially AvatarVecnas contribution) suddenly a lot more suspicious.

It looks bad in the context of this one game. It looks less so from the perspective of "more concerned with building community/new player base skill than with winning games". Although I suppose that probably makes me less than an ideal ally, too...

Either that or they tried to find a target that would tell us next to nothing, since The Outsider only poked Da'Shain and complained about missing the deadline.

Gonna second this theory. Dodging the baner is important once you know people's roles and have a good idea of who good targets are, but early on the name of the game for wolves is information-denial. Which is part of why general wolf strategy sometimes tends towards "murder active players" but that's a discouraging meta.

Why do you think that I'm a more quiet player?

Looking back, I'm not actually sure. I didn't recall seeing many posts by you when I was doing my vote counting, but looking back you're one of the more active players, and you even changed your vote more than once so it's not like I only saw vote posts and missed the rest. I might just be losing my mind.

I don't think that the wolves killed The Outsider in retaliation for their vote on Da'Shain, especially since The Outsider said during the night that they would have moved the vote elsewhere if they hadn't missed the deadline. So the only effect would be to draw attention to Da'Shain.

Yeah, your theory seems sounder than mine.

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Please don't take the italicised text to mean anything. Usually it's just that the person in question requested a certain flavour. It's not an attempt to hint at any mechanics.

Beyond "who killed who" of course.