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Thread: Smugglers & Scallywags
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2021-01-22, 02:54 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2019
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2021-01-22, 03:02 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
So, you guys are wrong.
All of your assumptions are based on the idea that both Jeen and I are full Seers, with no chance of being wrong.
Except that equal masons would mean that Jeen and I don't have full powers. As I understand it, the Baners powers combined amount to protecting people at Night, then during the Day. Quote from BW:
This means that they aren't full Baners, who get to protect against conversion every night. Being able to protect someone from conversion every night would be much more powerful than the roles they were given, which basically is an every other night protection. Assumidly they have a weaker version of the Bane ability to make up for the fact that there are two of them in contact with each other.
Continuing with the idea of the Baners not being at full power, both Seers can't be at full power. If we assume Seer=Baner, why don't Jeen and I have a cooldown every other day? Wouldn't that be the "two pairs of equal masons" that Valmark is talking about?
I still haven't had time to math out who it could be, but assuming that Jeen and I are both completely accurate is a mistake.
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2021-01-22, 03:07 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2019
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2021-01-22, 03:13 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Libro and Book Wombat, based on Cao's post, will you clarify your powers?
I read it as the same power for both of you, and that being (rephrasing it to try to make it clearer what I thought it meant): "Target someone each Night. That person is either baned (protected from all abilities) that Night OR day-baned (cannot be lynched) the following Day. You cannot target the same person twice in a row."
I also assume you choose to bane or day-bane.
Is that an accurate interpretation of your abilities? If no, clarify.
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2021-01-22, 03:16 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Well, no, the assumption is on the basis that Jeen is a full Seer- nothing says that masons have 'half powers'.
That quote clearly says that BW can either bane someone or day-bane them.
"Two pairs of equal masons" means "Two Seers and two Baners".
Yeah, again, nobody is assuming you are completely accurate. It's irrilevant at this point, since you're the only possible cultist during D2.
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2021-01-22, 03:19 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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2021-01-22, 03:23 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I think we're all assuming you have a power based on what you said when I told the non-existent vigilante to kill you. I understand if you want to stay quiet about what it is... but, well, it seems most cards on are the table now. So, when you can, please share info if it's at all pertinent. (Though, if by some chance none of it is relevant, I guess it's best the cult doesn't know your power, assuming you are still Town.)
I'll also note that The Outsider voting Cao doesn't mean much about The Outsider's alignment, should Cao flip cult. I imagine it looks very likely Cao will be lynched, so the remaining cult don't want to associate too strongly with him.
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2021-01-22, 03:23 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Actually wait, yes, we are assuming you are accurate based on the evidence that masons have the same powers.
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2021-01-22, 03:23 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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2021-01-22, 03:24 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Jeen was baned both day and night, according to BW/Libro.
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Yeah I corrected myself afterwards.
Also, note that the idea here is that you are a N1 convert. Caerulea and Outsider are suspected as N2 and 3 converts.
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2021-01-22, 03:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Is there a quote that proves that? Or can BW/Libro confirm? I read their actions as:
Night 1: Night Bane Book Wombat and Libro. They cannot be converted Night 1.
Night 2: Day Bane Elenna and Jeen. They cannot be lynched Day 3.
Night 3: Night Bane Elenna and Book Wombat. They cannot be converted Night 3.
Can the baners clarify?
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2021-01-22, 03:33 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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2021-01-22, 03:37 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
So, I read "Day Bane" as only protecting Jeen during the Day. Not at night when people can be converted??
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2021-01-22, 03:40 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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2021-01-22, 03:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Alright, so, here are my calculations. To start, we assume neither pair of Masons is the original Cultist. Based off of Book Wombat's Post #194 I also note when people are protected.
Spoiler
Original Cult Night 1 Convert Night 2 Convert Night 3 Convert Book Wombat Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected Caerulea Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Caoimhin Mason Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Captain Cap Wild Card Wild Card Dead Dead Elenna Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Protected JeenLeen Mason Vulnerable Protected Vulnerable Libro Mason Protected Vulnerable Vulnerable PartyOfRogues Villager Dead Dead Dead Outsider Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Valmark Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Xihirli Maybe Maybe Dead Cultist Dead Cultist
Removing CC and PoR, since they are not cult.
Let's factor in Jeen. We assume Jeen is not the Night 1 convert because Jeen lynched Xi. We also assume Jeen is a full Seer, for getting Xi right.
Elenna was scried Night 2.
Valmark was scried Night 3.
Spoiler
Original Cult Night 1 Convert Night 2 Convert Night 3 Convert Book Wombat Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected Caerulea Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Caoimhin Mason Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Elenna Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Protected JeenLeen Mason Xi Lynch Day 2 Protected Vulnerable Libro Mason Protected Vulnerable Vulnerable Outsider Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Valmark Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Xihirli Maybe Maybe Dead Cultist Dead Cultist
We do NOT include any of my scries, since they are not reliable.
If I am missing any information, let me know. As far as I can tell:
Caerulea, Outsider, and Xihirli could have been the original cultist. We are heavily assuming it was Xi.
Caerulea, Caoimhin, Outsider, and Xihirli could have been converted Night 1. Captain Cap could have been converted Night 1 if there were two starting cultists.
What am I missing that means Caerulea or Outsider couldn't have been converted Night 1? Or even that Caerulea or Outsider was the original cultist and picked Xihirli Night 1 who immediately got caught?
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OK, I've just been really dense. One of them chose to Night bane Jeen, the other chose to Day bane Jeen. Edited my post above.Last edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-01-22 at 03:54 PM.
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2021-01-22, 03:57 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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2021-01-22, 04:10 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
So we're back to assuming neither Jeen nor I is a Fool. Fine. If Jeen and I are both Seers, then you have to acknowledge the possibility that Cult started with 2 members.
The town as we see it with known powers is that Captain Cap was unconvertible. Book Wombat and Libro were not convertible (protecting each other Night 1) and we have 2 full powered Seers.
A single cultist to start has a 30% chance of missing their Night 1 conversion, and 2/9 shot of getting found by two Seers working together. That's if they don't randomly die Day 1. There's a good chance that the setup allowed for this so that the game would last more than 1 day, especially with how many power roles we have (two pairs of Masons plus Captain Cap plus maybe Outsider). So there's a path where there were 2 cultists to start, and they picked someone who couldn't be converted Night 1.
But we also have precedent for people not knowing the true extent/limits of their power. Captain Cap's role was not fully accurate and it certainly isn't out of the question that Jeen or I don't know the true text of our own roles. I could be a Fool and not have accurate info on my reads, Jeen could be a Fool who gets a random result.
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Wait a second, with Elenna/Book Wombat baned Night 3, that means Jeen was not protected N3. Why Elenna was protected rather than him I have no idea, but there's another option for someone who was converted Night 1. Valmark.
The only reason that we're trusting Valmark is good is based on JeenLeen's word from Night 3, but Jeen could have just as easily been converted last night and lied about his scry results to protect Val. Val would have been a great target for conversion Night 1, with everyone trusting Val for pretty much the entire game. Xi starts the game alone, chooses Val Night 1 who then can easily convert Jeen Night 3 after the publicly claimed baner would go back to protecting himself.
Vote: Valmark
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Vote Count:
CaoimhinTheCape (5): Book Wombat, JeenLeen, Valmark, Libro, The Outsider
Caerulea (1): Elenna
Valmark (1): CaoimhinTheCape
Not Voting (1): CaeruleaLast edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-01-22 at 10:47 PM.
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2021-01-22, 04:31 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Jeen can't have random reads because AV confirmed there is only one element of randomness (and I swear that if she lied on that too I'm dropping this game xD) which is the tie breaker. You could be a Fool- which we'll confirm by lynching you, showing that we shouldn't trust Caerulea and TO anyway.
I personally don't think you are though- assuming BW and Libro's roles aren't false, we have some evidence of people with real powers being masons.
Not only that, but their role QT is different from the false one Captain Cap got in how it's worded.
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Ninja'd. Anyway.
I was the first to blame Xihirli when we still hadn't got any proof, and I had no reason to vote her prior to it. Not only that, but we didn't know that BW couldn't protect Jeen back then- we didn't even know BW and Libro were masons.
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2021-01-22, 04:35 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2019
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I don't know how relevant it is (in my mind, it doesn't change my vote or the optimal target for today's lynch), but here goes. I'm also a Switch Baner, and I can confirm that the text BookWombat gave for their claim is word-for-word the same text I got. Night one I baned Valmark, N2 I baned JeenLeen, and N3 I baned Libro. Valmark can confirm this claim, as they are also a Switch baner and my Mason friend. So... yeah. This is a fascinating game.
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2021-01-22, 04:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Then what do you say to you being that Day 1 convert and Jeen covering for you? According to your logic of both of us as True Seers, that's the only option I can see, barring one of us being a Fool.
You are also, publicly stating, that you trust AvatarVecna. To not lie. With the Quote above in mind.
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Distancing between yourself and Xihirli Day 1. You had no way of knowing it would actually become a wagon. I'm saying you were the Day 1 convert and Jeen was only converted Night 3.
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2021-01-22, 04:38 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I can confirm. This is also why Jeen isn't a cultist- I day-baned Outsider N1, thinking he could be lynched, then baned CaoimhinTheCape believing he could be Jeen's buddy and on N3 I baned JeenLeen because I knew BW wouldn't be able to protect him (I didn't know about Libro).
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2021-01-22, 04:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
OK, I actually need to leave my computer right now, but we've now decided that this 11 player cult game started with 7 powered Players, including 3 Mason pairs, and we're assuming that we started with 1 Cult member?
Look, after this claim you guys should post who you protected so everyone can know who really had a shot at being converted.
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2021-01-22, 04:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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2021-01-22, 04:42 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Ninja'd, but I will more than likely pull my vote back from Valmark then. Ugh there's a lot going on this game.
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2021-01-22, 04:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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2021-01-22, 04:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Yes. Short answer is yes.
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2021-01-22, 04:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2019
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2021-01-22, 04:46 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Yeah, if BW hadn't pulled out the correct QT message and Jeen correctly identified Xihirli I would be "yeah all of this setup is impossible".
Also I'm not sure we are assuming we had only one original cultist. Caerulea could have been the partner in crime.
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(which is why I made those questions to AV some posts ago).
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Wait no, the questions are to understand how bad it is to have a switch baner with the cultists. Uuuugh.
Speaking of which, if we could just trust all of the baners this would probably be an auto-win. Uff.
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2021-01-22, 04:54 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Wait, so there's now 4 folk claiming baner?
I... might be able to get online tonight and try to think things over more, but I feel less comfortable voting Cao now. But gonna leave my vote there for now, since I don't have time to think over whether it's a gut feeling from the surprise at claims or something more rational.
At the least, I think (if people are being honest) it's incredibly likely the cult missed at least one conversion attempt. So maybe it's not game-over if we mislynch today. For that reason alone, I'm okay still voting Cao and hoping to recover if he's town.
Or, well, get converted tonight so I'm on the winning side. Either way.
Also, I don't believe basically anything AV has said except the reveals when folk have died. E.g., I'm not sure if there's one or multiple random things in the game.
And keep in mind that, if Cao or I are fool, we probably won't learn that until both of us are dead. I mean, I hope she'd tell us, but the standard is to wait to reveal that until both seers are dead.
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2021-01-22, 05:00 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I would also like to point out that the switch baners seem too strong until one gets converted and the cultists suddenly have a way to stop scries and stop lynches. In addition to knowing who's the other one.