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Thread: The Thing
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2020-12-18, 04:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Quiet in here...
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Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2020-12-18, 05:15 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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Re: The Thing
Technically those odds include the possibility that we test the same person today and tomorrow. P(Us catching at least one Thing today)=(1 - (6/8)^2)=0.4375, while P(Us catching at least one Thing tomorrow|no Things caught today)=(1 - (5/8)^2)=0.609375, for a combined total of P(Us catching at least one Thing using those four votes)=0.4375+(0.5625*0.609375)=0.7802734375 - the 78% figure I came to as the Town's odds. In other words, not catching ANY Things requires that we miss two 25% chances and then miss two 37.5% chances, which is actually pretty unlikely. It doesn't factor in the possibility of the Things trying to manipulate the vote, nor does it factor in any intelligent play from the Town, it just assumes that we pick randomly each time.
In other news, I've finally puzzled out where AvatarVecna and I were talking past one another with regards to this post (bolding mine):The part in bold was supposed to refer to the odds of the Things. We're still in 'IMAGINATION' land, where we're pretending that we're AvatarVecna, the N1 conversion trying to figure out who to convert on N2. For some reason I thought 'I'm inclined to start re-testing today.' was a segue out of that reference frame and into a frame where we're talking about Town odds and what the Town should do, instead of looking at things from the perspective of what the Things would want to get people to do. With that cleared up, AV's posts make a great deal more sense to me.
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2020-12-18, 05:23 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
It's sort of from the perspective of a theoretical N1!AV picking a convert target, but it's also sort of from the perspective of a theoretical N1!Grek or N1!Elenna or N1!Apogee. I think that an untested picking an untested for the N2 conversion is so obviously an awful choice (given town's general approach so far), that the only reason to vote double-unvoted is if you think the Things are kinda dumb. Which I guess to be fair is something we don't currently have evidence for either way, but I tend to shy away from strategies that assume scumteam is going to hand us an easy victory on a silver platter.
I'm glad it's been sorted out in your head. I've got some stuff elsewhere that I've gotta work on for the next little while, but I intend to do some more general D2 analysis to see if something else can be uncovered, and I kinda hope others will do so as well so we have stuff to look at on the off-chance Apogee flips Thing.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2020-12-18, 06:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Alright, I understand both of you now. I'll probably move to JeenLeen, but first I want to see if he has anything to say (assuming he manages to come online). I'll be online before EoD anyway so I can act whenever.
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2020-12-18, 08:56 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Thing
I can’t decide if I want JeenLeen or Valmark as my second vote.
On a reread, I somewhat disliked one of Valmark posts earlier today (I’ll pull it up in a second).
AV is like a possibility I suppose
But I highly doubt they were a thing before tonight. And I have a sneaking suspicion the n2 thing has already been tested idk.
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2020-12-18, 11:21 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2019
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2020-12-19, 07:00 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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Re: The Thing
Oh whoops, seems like I forgot to post the edit.
Apogee1 and The Outsider.Every day...
Avatar by linklele!
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2020-12-19, 07:32 AM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: The Thing
I realize now Jeen meant from the fifth day of the week to the next week (I can never remember the names of the days of the week in english, together with pronunciation of the letters of the alphabet).
So I can't actually wait for an explaination- or rather, it's extremely unlikely it'll come.
I'll vote Apogee1 and JeenLeen (basically I moved from Grek to JL).
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2020-12-19, 08:04 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2013
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Re: The Thing
That moves JeenLeen into the lead, but brings Apogee1 and AvatarVecna into a tie. In order to avoid having to deal with a tie, I'm changing my vote to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen, for a vote count of:
JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Apogee1, Grek
AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.
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2020-12-19, 12:59 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
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- Ithilien
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Re: The Thing
Could you tell us why you're voting for those two? Especially Outsider, there's been a lot of people giving reasons to vote for Apogee, but Outsider is a more unusual choice.
I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2020-12-19, 01:15 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: The Thing
Yea, it happens so rarely that 3-way ties hadn't been a consideration for me. I guess if it really came to that (which it doesn't look like it is any more) I would go with the first 2 to reach the tie. Now since each person has 2 votes, there is a weird edge-case where the tie is created for 2nd/3rd at the same time. In that one particular case I would use RNG. I am tempted to say that the order you post your votes in might decide, but that would change the dynamics of post order too much. I don't think most people have been ranking their votes with posting order to this point.
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2020-12-19, 03:03 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: The Thing
Alright, the day is ended and votes are in:
JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Grek, Valmark
AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
Grek(1): Apogee1
JeenLeen seems spaced out today and everyone notes his off behavior, deciding to test him. He offers no resistance, but his results come back completely normal
Everyone then turns to AV, who has been very active, but could be seen as hiding in plain sight. AV offers no resistance either, glad to prove their normality (if it can be called such). AV's test come back normal too.
Day 3 ends and Night 3 begins. N3 will end 8PM GMT December 20th
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2020-12-19, 04:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2013
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2020-12-20, 03:43 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Night 3 has ended. You find another slime puddle in a different location, so you know there is at least 1 Thing out in the world to catch.
Day 4 will end at 8 PM GMT on December 22nd
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2020-12-20, 04:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
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- Ithilien
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Re: The Thing
Okay, so there are 3 Things out of 8 players right now, meaning we absolutely need to find at least one Thing today. (I guess given the tie rules, 4 Things out of 8 players might not count as a win for the Things? But if we get to that point it's pretty much a win for the Things.)
From process of elimination:
- At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
- Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
- Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.
So I'm looking at voting two of Apogee, Grek, Outsider, or Valmark today. (Leaving myself off the list for obvious reasons.)
I think I've changed my mind on Apogee's towniness. Like I mentioned yesterday, I initially thought his not voting in the first round of D2 wasn't indicative of anything, because it didn't make sense to me that a Thing would avoid bussing Caoimhin there given that Cao was clearly doomed. But then I remembered Apogee mentioning in Crazier Idea that they haven't ever bussed a teammate, so maybe this does suggest that Apogee and Cao were teammates.
Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead. Kinda makes it look like they had a Thing buddy helping them out? And yes, I realize that me pushing Apogee's innocence yesterday looks suspicious in retrospect, feel free to suspect me for that. But it's worth noting that at the time when I posted my defense of Apogee, it looked like Apogee was all but guaranteed to be tested. If Apogee and I were both Things at that point, I would have just bussed.
On the other hand, both Grek and Outsider switched from Apogee to someone else at just the right time to push another person into the lead. In fact, if I'm counting right, both of them broke ties in such a way as to push Apogee into third place. Suspicious.
So, one of my votes is going on Apogee, and the other one is going on either Grek or Outsider - both because they suspiciously shifted their votes off Apogee, and because they could be either the N1 convert or the N2 convert while Valmark could only be the N2 convert.
Looking at Grek and Outsider's votes yesterday:
Why did you choose to vote AV + JeenLeen instead of Apogee + JeenLeen? Did you have a particular reason to be more suspicious of AV? Not saying this was necessarily an illogical decision given what we knew at the time - that would be silly, since I also voted AV + JL - but I want to hear what Outsider's thought process was.
This looks better to me than Outsider's post above, mostly because Grek acknowledges that they're breaking the tie, it doesn't feel like they want to hide that fact like they might if they were on a team with Apogee. Still want an answer to my question about that last paragraph, if only for my own curiosity, but I don't think it's a wolf tell.
I'm going to voteApogee and The Outsider, although this might change when Outsider answers my question above.Last edited by Elenna; 2020-12-22 at 03:41 AM.
I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2020-12-20, 04:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: The Thing
Grek needs a test today.
I can't give you a reason why AV got tested over me but I mean, if you want to push the (incorrect) angle that "I have a thing buddy (in this case, exactly one) trying to keep me off the vote" I'd suggest, you know, coming up with who that might be?
Because, I have the unique position of knowing that all three top wagons considered yesterday were town. I was wrong on JeenLeen being converted. So, no things were really in danger. Sure, Grek and like TO and Valmark (which I think contains 1+ thing as a group but that's a seperate issue) got discussed or voted a bit, but weren't really going over.
I also thing the AV votes are mediocre especially in retrospect.
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Is not listing me as a n2 an oversight or because you don't think I was the N2 for some reason?
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Similarly AV
Why'd you think it was an off chance I flip thing? AFAICT that wasn't really a position you had held earlier?
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To clarify myself, this was votes on AV not votes by AV
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Valmark can you talk about your progression from this post into:
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voting Grek here?
Because it seems you've come away with having no thing suspects but me, but haven't actually cleared a bunch of people, and end up on Grek who you just pretty strongly townread?
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Grek and The Outsider.
Something something maximize the chance of hitting the n1 idk.
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2020-12-20, 05:24 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: The Thing
Apogee1andGrek. They haven't gotten tested when I wanted them to (although I did move away from Grek when good reasoning was offered about JL, I don't remember who was up for the chopping block at that point in time) and now I'd like to see them tested. Especially the former, I'm open on changing the latter.
I'm not sure what to explain. In the first quote I say that I'm more likely to vote Grek over Elenna together with you while in the second I vote Grek- I basically did exactly what I said I was likely to do (and implicitly I didn't consider her strongly Town).
Maybe it wasn't clear what "reserve Thing" meant- I was referring to the second vote, or the second suspect to be preciseLast edited by Valmark; 2020-12-22 at 03:29 AM.
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2020-12-20, 05:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: The Thing
Originally Posted by Elenna
As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting forApogee1 and Valmark.
I also have a thought for why I'm not a Thing, but I'll save it for if I accumulate more votes.
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2020-12-20, 05:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Okay I thought you meant more "deepwolf" than "second" here so maybe that explains it.
But still it seems like you have a lot of reasons to townread Grek prior to voting them? Compared to like, why TO or BW or (whoever the other not me/you/AV/Elenna name is sorry whoever I'm forgetting).
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Anyways this becomes more relevant partwise through the day as we can get some interactions and such
But what I'm going to encourage is "splitting the worlds" on the first vote. Which means if you strongly think player A is a thing, and you think player B might be with them, vote for player A and then some player C that you think is likely to be a thing if A isn't one (instead of voting A/B).
Because a) we need to get one thing on the first vote or we lose tomorrow and b) even if we get two things in the first vote, we still only get one extra.
As an example take Elenna, who is voting me, and TO on suspicion of being allied with me. Well I actually think TO might be a thing (even having the privilege of knowing they are not in fact my partner) so maybe its a bad example, but I'd rather encourage Elenna to vote with the second vote someone who looks very likely to be a thing when I flip scientist.
Also like, since its wrong to vote me and we need to get one or lose, I do have a somewhat selfish reason to suggest this but a pro-village one.
Let the WIFOM commence.
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2020-12-20, 05:56 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Spoiler: Statistic StuffI don't see anybody converting Apogee1 N2, for the amount of hot water they're in. I don't see anybody converting Apogee1/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider N3 for similar hot water reasons. I don't see Apogee1/Elenna/Grek getting converted N1 and converting another in that trio N2, with how much potential heat there would've been on the three of them yesterday.
Here's another thorough table of conversion combos I consider viable:
10/44 13/44 21/44 14/44 14/44 13/44 26/44 21/44 N1 Conversion N2 Conversion N3 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark Apogee1 Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Apogee1 Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1 Apogee1 Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1 Apogee1 The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Apogee1 The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1 Apogee1 The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1 Apogee1 The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1 Apogee1 Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Apogee1 Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1 Apogee1 Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1 Elenna Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Elenna Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1 Elenna Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1 Elenna The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Elenna The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1 Elenna The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1 Elenna The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1 Elenna Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Elenna Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1 Elenna Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1 Grek Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Grek Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1 Grek Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1 Grek The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Grek The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1 Grek The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1 Grek The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1 Grek Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1 Grek Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1 Grek Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1 The Outsider Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1 The Outsider Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1 The Outsider Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1 The Outsider Elenna AvatarVecna 1 1 1 The Outsider Elenna Book Wombat 1 1 1 The Outsider Elenna JeenLeen 1 1 1 The Outsider Elenna Valmark 1 1 1 The Outsider Grek AvatarVecna 1 1 1 The Outsider Grek Book Wombat 1 1 1 The Outsider Grek JeenLeen 1 1 1 The Outsider Grek Valmark 1 1 1 The Outsider Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1 The Outsider Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1 The Outsider Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
Spoiler: First Thoughts...N1 Conversions
Apogee1
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider
N2 Conversions
Book Wombat
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider
Valmark
N3 Conversions
AvatarVecna
Book Wombat
JeenLeen
Valmark
Using just those lists, we get:
Apogee1: 1/3
AvatarVecna: 1/3
Book Wombat: 2/3
Elenna: 2/3
Grek: 2/3
JeenLeen: 1/3
The Outsider: 2/3
Valmark: 2/3
Using both lists of approximate rankings, we get these two orders of vague suspicion:
The Outsider
Book Wombat/Valmark
Elenna/Grek
AvatarVecna/JeenLeen
Apogee1
...and...
Book Wombat/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider/Valmark
Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen
First Thought Conclusion: Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen are bad choices to check today. It's not out of the question that AV/JL got converted N3, or that Apogee1 got converted N1, but there are other people who maybe got converted on multiple nights, and are just more common in the various combos.
Spoiler: Second Thoughts...N1 Conversions
Apogee1
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider
N2 Conversions
Book Wombat
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider
Valmark
N3 Conversions
AvatarVecna
Book Wombat
JeenLeen
Valmark
N1 and N3 lists are exact opposite, which is about as I expected - anybody could've been converted N3, but I don't think any of the people in deep suspicion of D1 conversion would've been converted N3 - it's just asking to get caught today. Elenna/Grek/The Outsider are the N1s I'd consider voting today. From those three, as I said yesterday, I think The Outsider is the most likely conversion choice for N1, so it'd be either voting The Outsider/Elenna or The Outsider/Grek.
If we're going to check the N3 list instead, this is much easier: checking AvatarVecna/JeenLeen again isn't a great idea since they could only have been converted N3, and there's basically nothing to go on to check and be sure (especially since JeenLeen isn't back yet). As such, Book Wombat/Valmark would be the pair to check here.
Combos I'd be willing to check today:
Elenna/The Outsider
Grek/The Outsider
Book Wombat/Valmark
I'm gonna get some food, then start doing ISOs on thesefourfive people. For some reason I thought two people had duplicates in that list. I'm an idiot lol.
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I also hope that people take my defense of Apogee1 more seriously today than they did yesterday, taking into account the fact that I made the exact same argument yesterday, it got me checked instead of Apogee, and I still came up clean.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-20 at 06:05 PM.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
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2020-12-20, 07:15 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
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- Ithilien
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Re: The Thing
Any particular reason, or just a matter of "they're a good player and they haven't been tested yet"?
Like I said above, I think Grek and Outsider both changed their votes in such a way that you didn't get tested, and one of them might have been doing it on purpose. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here?
----
Hmm, I can definitely understand wanting to know if AV was telling the truth. On the other hand, D2 you put Apogee first and AV fifth on you list of people you would want to convert. Did you change your mind about that?
Good point, I agree that this could be a good way to cast votes today.
That being said, if you're not a thing then either Grek or Outsider was the N1 conversion, which means if I vote for one of them then I have a 50-50 chance of hitting a Thing even without taking analysis into account. So it doesn't actually change my plan to vote for you and one of Grek or Outsider today.I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2020-12-20, 07:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Spoiler: Elenna ISOThe "everybody is a potential conversion" list still rubs me the wrong way, but over time I've grown more comfortable with the vote. The first post of D2, and it's Elenna voting Cao and giving lots of analysis. If I was the N1 conversion, I don't think my first move would be to bus my buddy immediately, I'd at least try to look elsewhere and see if I could provide some cover.
"whereas I was pretty sure Caoimhin was the original Thing"
Hmm...
On the one hand, it's a common scumslip to look more informed than you should be. On the other hand, that's a well-known scumslip, and is why wafflewolf is a thing, leaving confidence to townies who are sure about their leans. And certainly, a lot of people turned out to be pretty sure Cao was scum...I'm not sure how to lean about this.
"I'm not sure knowing who did the conversion helps all that much, since it seems like most people's lists of who they would convert are fairly similar."
This point is true, but it had also already been addressed: hunting down the conversion based on the list of whoever the original was is a trap, but that's not the point of hunting the original first, or of asking for lists. The point of hunting the original is that it makes it more likely that we'd get at least one that day, as opposed to either getting two or none (like what happened D3). The point of asking for lists is so that we can analyze people's given reasons for converting this person or that person, and sus out who's giving fake reasoning to try and disguise scumbuddies. Given how much both of these points were discussed D2 up to this point, I think it's weird that it was still not being understood.
"I think Apogee is less likely to be the conversion target. For one thing, how often do wolves deliberately not vote at all?"
I vaguely recall that somebody has brought up Apogee saying they don't vote scumbuddies, and I'm glad to have this counterpoint already brought up by somebody. This is exactly the kind of "wolves don't draw attention to themselves when they're not in the spotlight" thing we were talking about with Grek: if Apogee1 was the N1 conversion, sure I figure they don't vote Cao, but surely they'd vote somebody, if only to not be immediately suspicious. This is the move of a townie who isn't sure Cao is scum, not of scum that knows Cao is scum and doesn't wanna vote a scumbuddy even if it'll get them immediately suspected. Elenna pointing this out instead of just jumping on the "apogee is obvious" scum wagon everybody else is on wins her some points with me.
Null read, just a clarification request.
Null. First part is site mechanics, second part is very basic "voting Valmark d2" reasoning. I voted Valmark d2 as well, so I get it, but voting somebody who isn't scum is something scum could do easily, so that's not a tell either way.
"Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through."
As my posts D3 indicate (and my earlier post today), I think just because it's harder to figure out who would've been converted N2 based on who might've been converted N1, doesn't mean there's no value in doing so. Eliminating people from multiple conversion lists is useful, and figuring out the potential combos is a good way to look for connections between players. One person acting a little weird could just be a person acting a little weird. Two people acting a little weird, but acting a little weirder about each other...that's scumsign. Case in point, I'm sure the primary reason I got voted yesterday is because everybody is convinced Apogee is guilty, and I was defending Apogee, so I'm on the chopping block.
"Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before."
Ah, so Elenna's the one that brought that up. Hrm...
"Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now."
AV/JL were both innocent, so somebody voting them both could be scum flying under the radar. I'm kinda assuming that town is definitely checking To today (and Apogee, despite my protests). If TO flips scum, Elenna's on my shortlist of scumbuddies.
Both are worthwhile questions that I'm glad somebody asked. Townie points.
"Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead."
And now that the two people Elenna voted have flipped innocent, it's Apogee's fault even though she's previously argued for his innocence and the primary evidence seems to be...that people believed her and me? So those people who believed our Apogee defense and voted elsewhere are now scumbuddies? And Elenna's calling out TO and Grek for voting the exact same way Elenna voted???
I'll say this again: if TO flips scum, and Apogee flips town, take a hard look at Elenna.
In general, I think Elenna has a number of things that indicate town, and a number that indicate scum. If Apogee flips town and TO flips scum, Elenna should be at least be strongly considered for our third test. I'll definitely wanna reevaluate my lists at that point, though.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-20 at 07:27 PM.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
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2020-12-20, 07:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: The Thing
Oops completely missed that part :/
Yeah I'll go more into depth on Grek later but yes I have a reason for going for them beyond not being tested.
Although apparently? I've missed there are only two other not tested n1s which makes this a lot easier for me I thought there was one besides TO Grek and I.
Well that fits at least.
Clearly I'm tired.
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2020-12-20, 08:09 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Spoiler: Book Wombat ISOThis starts at D3 for the same reason Elenna's started at D2: we've already discussed the stuff from before then, and that's the point where their posts could potentially show scumsigns (BW can't have been converted N1, so looking at D2 stuff for scumsigns is pointless).
"before editing in my votes."
Reeeeeeeeeee
I already don't think Apogee is scum. I will say that this feels a lot less like bussing than a lot of Elenna's comments, so I'll say that I don't think BW and TO are scumbuddies, even as I also think there's a pretty good chance that at least one of them is scum. I really wish they'd given reasoning, and I'm hoping they answered Elenna's question.
Oh wait, no, that's it for their posts after SoD3.
On the one hand, BW is flying under the radar pretty hard for the period in which they could be scum. On the other hand, they were flying under the radar before that point, and that's exactly why they got checked D2. I'm not sure what to make of them, I just know that they wouldn't have been an awful choice if you were trying to avoid getting your buddy checked.
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2020-12-20, 08:10 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: The Thing
And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.
At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting forElennaandThe Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-21 at 07:01 PM.
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2020-12-20, 09:14 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Spoiler: Grek ISOMath posting in and of itself isn't necessarily scumsign (obviously, I do it the most, and we know how that turned out), but it's fairly different from Grek's D1 approach. Not proof, but potentially corroborating evidence.
Nothing pops out as objectionable in this post. If we check Grek, and she flips scum, I'd probably consider Valmark and The Outsider. Grek/Elenna seems unlikely to me just because I really don't think we would've had double-untested going into D3.
...although now that I say that, Grek was making a lot of confusion around the point I was making, and Grek/Elenna were the two untested who weren't getting voted (which were Apogee and me). If Grek flips, and it turns out Elenna was the N2 conversion, then I essentially spent D3 calling Grek stupid...
...I'll keep that in mind reading through things going forward. See if makes posts make more sense.
This is either the post where Thing!Grek starts attacking my credibility, to set up for actually getting me tested and not listened to D3...or this is the post where Town!Grek 100% played themselves trying to find the scumbuddy-marble under Cao's cups. I've already addressed the actual arguments plenty.
I've already said as much (as did Grek here, as well as Valmark), but this is what makes me think Grek was genuine D2. Grek was the person pushing me the hardest and the soonest, and if she were scum, she'd know that eventually that would reflect poorly on her (which is why she seems to just be going along with my assessments today). I'm inclined to think Grek isn't a N1 conversion, which leaves Apogee, TO, and Elenna to check for that one...and y'all know my thoughts on Apogee.
Clarifying her position, sticking to the argument in the face of disagreement. Yeah, this is a townie, at least on D2.
More and more, these posts feel like scum trying to obfuscate the points I was making.
Null, either side would say something like this when left off a vote-count.
This would indicate a possible Apogee/Grek scumteam on D3 if
1) Grek didn't start out bussing Apogee
2) I was in any way willing to accept a pair of untested scum going into D3.
So I'm not sure what to make of this.
I'm unclear why "if AV flips scum, they were clearly defending against an Apogee/AV double-lynch, so we should lynch Apogee next" is something that should be kept secret. The JL/TO connection is similarly straightforward, even if I don't particularly agree with it. Townie playing cards too close to the chest, or scum unsure if playing their hand would look too scummy, and thus playing more conservatively?
I didn't then, and still don't now, see why "I wouldn't have picked an untested person to get converted, because then there would be two untested Things, and town has been testing untested people so far, so that would get us instantly caught" is "game-theoretical reasons". It is and was attempting to predict conversion choices based on what situation this person or that person would've been in if they were the N1 conversion. It was, and still is, highly relevant information for basing our lynches on, and I really don't like how you're simultaneously dismissive of the concept, while going along with it anyway to not look too suspicious for continuing to tear down my arguments after it's been proven they came from a townie.
My prediction: Grek was the N2 conversion.
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Spoiler: The Outsider ISOValmark has since been checked, the other two haven't. idk what that says about TO tho.
I'm not sure what to make of this. I don't like that there's no argument made for Elenna (potential support for my earlier TO/Elenna theory), but the other arguments feel solid-ish.
Clearly had some strong feelings about Grek over the others, but was convinced elsewhere. Either a townie who's a bit uninvested, or scum just going with the flow.
Again, I think it's really weird that TO pushed Grek pretty hard, and then abandoned the wagon when they got pushback. Where Grek stuck to her guns, TO is being shifty.
TO just latched onto JL's vote, which is part of why I suspected it might be the both of them together. TO later abandoned that vote...
"I think last night's conversion would've been somebody who's already been tested. That's why I'm only voting people who haven't been tested yet."
...TO switched from Apogee to JeenLeen. Because they can't get 100% on board with re-testing or they have to acknowledge they're on the chopping block too.
*inhales deeply*
Y'all remember back on D1, when Cao asked why self-vote, and I answered something "because people won't bother taking my analysis seriously until they're sure they can trust me or not"? This, this right here, is exactly what I meant: somebody saying, in their own words, that they haven't bothered trying to understand my analysis much. Not because they thought I was untrustworthy, but because they were unsure. This right here is exactly why I self-vote so much, and why I started out self-voting when we didn't have a better idea of what to do D1. This right here basically always happens.
I'm feeling a lot more confident that I should vote TO today.
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Spoiler: Valmark ISOI appreciated the JeenLeen call-out, even as it turned out to be unwarranted. The response to TO is also about what I'd expect from town!Valmark. I'm unhappy about how wishy-washy the vote-choices feel, though. Hopefully there's more analysis and stronger leans later in this ISO.
Good clarification. Time will tell if Valmark addressed our bigger posts.
I appreciate the clarification question, although it's a null tell.
This is the kind of poking and prodding I was hoping for.
Hrm...I'd rather a pressure-vote had been put on just in case V didn't make it back. But that's just personal preference, and Valmark did end up voting, so that's null tell.
I'm glad this vote has a bit more confidence behind it, even as I don't like the vote for Apogee.
Don't feel great about this response to Apogee.
Slight town lean overall, and the strongest townlean of these five. I think I'd like to hear Valmark go into detail on his thoughts on each player, to be sure.
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2020-12-20, 10:22 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2013
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Re: The Thing
I only saw that post after the N3 started. If Elenna actually didn't make the obvious connection, then it was possible that the Things might also not have made the connection. If Elenna already figured it out but was asking for other reasons, explaining during D4 was just as good as explaining during N3. Not a huge deal either way, but absent any particularly good reason why it couldn't wait until after the next day, I decided to avoid night-talk. After all, a Thing reading that post could easily come to the conclusion that I'd support a Apogee1/The Outsider vote today, even though I'm no planning to vote Apogee at all today.
I'm drawing a distinction here between making assessments based off of the state of the game (inferences made on the state of the game and theorizing about what you'd personally try if you were in a a given position) vs. making assessments based off of knowledge about the individual players (stuff like me being a relative unknown who is hard to read, or Party of Rogues always being late to D1). While the former sort of analysis is generally more useful, it's also more subject to change based on a person's position in the game; in my experience scum are more willing to lie about what they think the scum would be doing a given situation than they would be about the previous game history of various players. Yesterday, I was sure you were a Thing and so treated your arguments with suspicion. Today, I know that you weren't a Thing and that I can trust those arguments. Just like I said I would here:
I now know for sure that you weren't trying to protect a scum buddy. The argument that the Things are definitely going to try to convert people who've been tested is convincing. Obviously so, or I wouldn't have made that very point pre-game and mentioned it during my first post in the thread. I get that this looks like I'm backing down and just going with the flow today and that that looks hella scummy, but to be fair it IS what I said I'd do yesterday and it is fully in agreement with what I said I think the Town should base its strategy on before the game even started. If people want to vote for me, I get it, even setting aside my insider knowledge that I'm not a Thing, I think the town would be better served by Elenna/The Outsider or by Valmark/Book Wombat, just to be dead sure of not losing instantly due to a mislynch.Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-20 at 10:25 PM.
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2020-12-20, 10:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
You know what, belay that. That'd be my list if we weren't at LYLO, but Grek's right, we are. If we're looking to maximize our odds of catching at least one Thing with our initial two tests (which we have to, to avoid losing immediately), then we need to test two from Book Wombat, The Outsider, and Valmark.
@Book Wombat
@The Outsider
@Valmark
I want to hear you three's thoughts on all players currently. Y'all are being fairly quiet and while I've already got my opinions, I'd like to hear more from you to feel a bit more secure in my voting.
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2020-12-21, 05:26 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
The Outsider and Valmark. I see y'all are online, speak your minds.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-22 at 04:22 AM.
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2020-12-21, 05:38 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: The Thing
Yeah, sorry, I've been rather sleepy all day (due to IRL reasons) so I've been avoiding posting here until I had a fresher mind (which hasn't come). I'll try to get something useful out in answer to your questions but I don't promise anything until tomorrow morning/noon.
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Anything useful at least.
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I don't actually have much better readings then on JL, BW or TO. On one side she's been contributing more for sure, on the other I don't know her. I'd feel much better after a test, though I'd change if I see a valid reason to (like I said in a previous post).
Although to be fair I find at least JL and BW unlikely. We know Jeen was Town until now, I doubt they would convert them while they might not vote at all D4.
And BW has been generally little present (not unlike me today), if you think under the idea that the Things need to get active people doing their job looking Town he wouldn't be a likely candidate.