Hearthstone 23: The Evil League of EVIL

[Rynjin]

Yeah "let's Nerf every Rogue spell in the game by 1 mana" is a bad move.

[Rodin]

Yeah "let's Nerf every Rogue spell in the game by 1 mana" is a bad move.

That being true tells you everything you need to know about Prep, really. It's a shame Blizzard doesn't do buffs, because I agree cards like Sprint are unfairly impacted. From what I gathered from the various Talkstone things I watch though, it was pretty much inevitable. Prep was getting put into decks like Quest Rogue which ran exactly one spell, the quest reward. It's the reason why Van Cleef has been in every world championship final ever. The card was a massive power outlier in the class, and so ends up an obvious target. It does leave me deeply worried about the future of Rogue, because the entire class has been shaped around Prep for so long that the power level with a nerfed version is going to be crushed.

The Elysiana nerf was obvious.

I am a bit surprised that Conjurer's Calling escaped unscathed, but I guess Mage was getting suppressed by all the hyper-aggro Rogue decks and uber-control Warriors. That card is definitely next on my dead pool.

[Rynjin]

Prep is the clearest example of the issue with nerfing the Classic set in general (or the issue WITH the Classic set in general).

The entire game since day 1 has been balanced around those cards. Every card released at the same time AND after release has been balanced around the Classic set. So nerfing those cards creates immense imbalances with those classes.

When you nerf core cards that classes are based around like that it heavily impacts them for the foreseeable future. The Equality nerf is the same way. Control Paladin is pretty much gone; all its removal is too damn slow now. And thus, Paladin AS A CLASS is gone, kaput, out of the meta until AT LEAST the next expansion.

On paper nerfs like these are good for the game. Card OP, sees too much use = band or nerf. But Blizzard seems to ignore the myriad other issues it causes.

Really what they should do is instead of nerfing Classic cards is do an entire rework of the Classic set. Change the balance points of the Classic class cards to focus less on internal synergies (like they do now) and more on being individually decent cars. Because the game has been shaped by those internal synergies for too long to just pull some of these cards out of the current house the game is made of.

[Zevox]

Nerfs of the Expansion has finally been announced, and I think it's to no surprise that Rogue got hit the hardest.

Before getting into the actual nerfs, can I just say that it bothers me that "nerfs of the expansion" has just become a thing that we all assume will definitely happen? It feels like they just quietly made that a regular thing starting maybe a couple of years ago, and now there's no possibility that we get through an expansion without nerfs. Which makes it feel like they're doing them less because things are genuinely too powerful and require nerfing than just to shake up the meta in the mid-expansion period, and if that's the case, I do not appreciate it at all.

Because honestly, right now, I don't think anything really needed nerfing. Yes, Rogue's probably the best deck around at the moment, but not to a degree that I think warrants much, if any, nerfing. And it sucks to see otherwise good cards we could continue using for a long time become unusable if there's not a damn good reason for it.

EVIL Miscreant: Goes from 1/5 to 1/4 stats.

Raiding Party: Cost increased to 4 Mana.

Preperation: Now only reduces the next Spell's cost by 2.

Archivist Elysiana: Cost increased to 9 Mana.

Okay, lets get to it...

EVIL Miscreant: Eh, that's fine I suppose. Surprisingly mild even, I'd have expected them to raise it to 4 mana if they were going to target it, that would be a lot more meaningful. Almost certainly still sees play.

Raiding Party: Big, but if they were going to nerf Rogue, I think this was the best call to make. Draw 3 is worth around 5 mana historically (Nourish), so it's still a good deal at 4 here, and should still see play. Or at least it would, if this next one doesn't kill Rogue entirely...

Preparation: Ouch. Okay, you all know by now what I think of nerfing the Classic set, so I'll just say that fully applies here and move on to my other thought. Namely, why one earth do this and nerf Raiding Party? One or the other seems sufficient. And this one impacts a lot more than the current deck, since Prep has been a core Rogue card literally forever. Anyway, this one doesn't hurt me personally as much as some of the other classic nerfs, since Rogue is my least played class that isn't Hunter, but it's still likely up there with Firey War Axe, Wild Growth, and Equality as one of the biggest, most impactful nerfs they've done to the classic set, and thus it sees no approval from me.

Elysiana: Eh, if they were going to do anything to Warrior, this is the change I'm most okay with. Just prevents double Elysiana, which is fine. She'll still be useful for Control v Control - and this could even create an interesting new dynamic between Control Warrior and Control Shaman, since the latter can still get a second Elysiana by holding Shudderwock long enough. Guess I should just be happy they didn't touch Doctor Boom or important classic cards like Brawl, which I was afraid might happen.

Prep is the clearest example of the issue with nerfing the Classic set in general (or the issue WITH the Classic set in general).

The entire game since day 1 has been balanced around those cards. Every card released at the same time AND after release has been balanced around the Classic set. So nerfing those cards creates immense imbalances with those classes.

When you nerf core cards that classes are based around like that it heavily impacts them for the foreseeable future. The Equality nerf is the same way. Control Paladin is pretty much gone; all its removal is too damn slow now. And thus, Paladin AS A CLASS is gone, kaput, out of the meta until AT LEAST the next expansion.

Well, we agree on that much, at least. And Paladin at the moment is indeed a huge poster boy for the problems that mucking with the classic set causes, though it's not just Equality (even though that one hurts me personally much more). The other thing that killed the class was rotating Divine Favor, which killed its aggro potential. If that card were still around, odds are that Secret Paladin would actually have been as strong as we all expected it to be before the set released, and then the class wouldn't be totally dead. But they managed to take away the keys to both the class' midrange-and-slower decks and its aggro decks at almost the same time, and its current sad state is the result. (And of course, it's a state that will only be fixed by them printing new, more powerful cards for the class to take those ones' place, so the nerfs become an indirect way to incentivize buying new sets' packs. )

I just come to the opposite conclusion about what they should actually be doing - namely, accepting that certain classic cards seeing consistent use over the game's lifetime isn't a problem, but a core element of how the game was designed from the outset, and don't try to change that, just design around it being the baseline. Which is, you know, what they said it would be.

[Rynjin]

Because honestly, right now, I don't think anything really needed nerfing. Yes, Rogue's probably the best deck around at the moment, but not to a degree that I think warrants much, if any, nerfing.

Rogue has a 57% win rate against Token Druid, a 41% win rate against Control Warrior, and a 65%+ winrate against literally every other deck in the game. It absolutely needed a lot of nerfing. Prep, however, was not really an issue in the deck except insofar as it made Raiding Party (the real problem child) and (as ever) Edwin better.

[Rodin]

I almost had a disastrous run as Quest Hunter - got all the way to Millificent, but when I used my DK Shaman hero power it turned a 1-drop into Doomsayer, blowing up my Super Simian Sphere. Luckily I managed to re-stabilize with Shaw+Raptor spam, and once I had board control it was game.

People talk about the Robe of Gaudiness being the best, but since I haven't gotten it so far my absolute MVP treasure is the Hyperblaster - 1/5 Poisonous Immune While Attacking. Clearing five of the toughest minions for free is amazing for tempo.

Robe of Gaudiness is one that you only pick if it's the first treasure offered, but if you do get it first you get a free win. Like, almost guaranteed. You simply pick the best cards starting from the top mana cost instead of the bottom, and instead of curving out 1,2,3 you curve out 3,5,7. The bosses just cannot compete with that sort of curve, and it can get especially ridiculous if you have additional discounts stacked on top.

After bombing out of my attempt to win with Random Mage deck (because it turns out they do track which decks and hero powers you've won with) a good 15-20 times in a row, I got offered the Robe for my opening treasure and decided to just test it out again. It's ludicrous.

2 of the games I opened with a 1-mana 4/5 minion (Pyromaniac buffed by Round of Drinks), followed by attacking into the chest for the coins and coining out Dr. Boom on turn 2. Another game I coined out Antonidas on 2, then the following turn started tossing 2-mana Fireballs about to utterly crush any board presence.

The prize game though was the Dreamgrove Ring, which I managed to reduce in cost by 3 with the "Take a Chance" card in the Tavern. So that reduced it to cost 6, which then got further reduced to cost 3.

So on turn 3 I summoned 5 Archivist Elysianas. Because that seems fair.

Sooooooo...yeah. I'm self-banning it unless I get utterly desperate trying to beat a particular class/deck/hero power combination. While you can get some pretty powerful treasures (Rocket Boots has actually been the strongest runner-up for me), Robe of Gaudiness just makes things...not fun. The ability to start dropping 7-drops on turn 2 or 3 and then just keep doing that for the rest of the game is way too strong for almost all the decks the AI brings. The handbuff deck with a perfect draw might be able to keep up, since that one dumped a 7/7 Dopplegangster on me on turn 5, and the Discard deck might be able to if she high-rolls the early discards. Other than a few edge cases though? I could build my deck and literally roll my face across the touchscreen to win the games.

[Lord Raziere]

Nerfs of the Expansion has finally been announced, and I think it's to no surprise that Rogue got hit the hardest.

EVIL Miscreant: Goes from 1/5 to 1/4 stats.

Raiding Party: Cost increased to 4 Mana.

Preperation: Now only reduces the next Spell's cost by 2.

Archivist Elysiana: Cost increased to 9 Mana.

*cut for truth*

Yeah, this is getting stupid with the classic nerfs. Preparation being nerfed like that is just "hey how about no reliable things ever." Rogue is already a hard class to play, messing with prep just screws it up even more. and I like trying to make rogue work! y'know when there is a combo I like. its supposed to be the exacting combo class.

but if Rogues hit by this, that means Warrior is now on top. sure no Elysiana, but its still going to be a bit of a slog. hello control warrior meta for a month before they nerf that into oblivion with the wrong cards there as well.

[Zevox]

Rogue has a 57% win rate against Token Druid, a 41% win rate against Control Warrior, and a 65%+ winrate against literally every other deck in the game. It absolutely needed a lot of nerfing. Prep, however, was not really an issue in the deck except insofar as it made Raiding Party (the real problem child) and (as ever) Edwin better.

That sounds like an exaggeration. Of the decks I play only Hand/Conjurer Mage has felt like it has a particularly bad time with Rogue, and even that can win with the right opening (the turn 3 Giant into Calling, of course). Besides Warrior I've also felt like the matchup was fine for Control Shaman, and I don't recall it being too bad for Resurrect Priest, though admittedly I've played little of that since I'm not fond of Divine Spirit + Inner Fire wins.

Yeah, this is getting stupid with the classic nerfs. Preparation being nerfed like that is just "hey how about no reliable things ever." Rogue is already a hard class to play, messing with prep just screws it up even more. and I like trying to make rogue work! y'know when there is a combo I like. its supposed to be the exacting combo class.

but if Rogues hit by this, that means Warrior is now on top. sure no Elysiana, but its still going to be a bit of a slog. hello control warrior meta for a month before they nerf that into oblivion with the wrong cards there as well.

While I'm with you on Prep, I wouldn't count on that last. Warrior was the such a prominent deck in no small part because it's so good against Rogue. If Rogue falls, then other decks that fare better against Warrior than it might rise, such as Hand/Conjurer Mage, or the different versions of Mech Hunter, which would keep Warrior from dominating. As much as I'd like a Control Warrior-dominated meta, I could easily see this going the other way and reducing Warrior's prominence and power substantially, depending on how things shake out.

[Rynjin]

That sounds like an exaggeration. Of the decks I play only Hand/Conjurer Mage has felt like it has a particularly bad time with Rogue, and even that can win with the right opening (the turn 3 Giant into Calling, of course). Besides Warrior I've also felt like the matchup was fine for Control Shaman, and I don't recall it being too bad for Resurrect Priest, though admittedly I've played little of that since I'm not fond of Divine Spirit + Inner Fire wins.

I think the data speaks a bit better than your anecdote.

[Zevox]

I think the data speaks a bit better than your anecdote.

Perhaps, but it also indicates that you did indeed exaggerate. It shows four classes that the deck has a 65%+ win rate against, not everything except Control Warrior and Token Druid.

In addition, it's only showing those win rates by class, which is not especially useful unless the class has only one deck being played, and I'm not sure any do. Maybe Druid and Warlock with Token and Zoo respectively (is there anyone still playing new Handlock? I'm not sure), but for the rest I can think of at least two per class, often three - even the most fringe of the classes, Paladin, has Secret, Dragon, and Mech out there as options, even though few people are playing any of them.

I do see there's a "matchup" tab there, but apparently you can't view that without paying.

Edit: As a point of comparison, that site actually shows the most-played version of Control Warrior with four classes that it has a 70%+ win rate against, two more at 60%, and only two at under 50% (Hunter at 47%, and somehow other Warriors at 43%), arguably a better spread than it gives the Tempo Rogue you listed, yet it's Rogue, not Warrior, that is the most played class and commonly cited as the current top deck.

[Rynjin]

Perhaps, but it also indicates that you did indeed exaggerate. It shows four classes that the deck has a 65%+ win rate against, not everything except Control Warrior and Token Druid.

In addition, it's only showing those win rates by class, which is not especially useful unless the class has only one deck being played, and I'm not sure any do. Maybe Druid and Warlock with Token and Zoo respectively (is there anyone still playing new Handlock? I'm not sure), but for the rest I can think of at least two per class, often three - even the most fringe of the classes, Paladin, has Secret, Dragon, and Mech out there as options, even though few people are playing any of them.

I do see there's a "matchup" tab there, but apparently you can't view that without paying.

Ah, sorry, I committed the unforgivable sin of working from memory. You are correct, two of the six decks I thought only won 35% of games against Rogue actually won a whopping 40% of them instead.

What a grand error, truly changing the overall tone and meaning of my previous post. However will I live with myself.

[Zevox]

Ah, sorry, I committed the unforgivable sin of working from memory. You are correct, two of the six decks I thought only won 35% of games against Rogue actually won a whopping 40% of them instead.

What a grand error, truly changing the overall tone and meaning of my previous post. However will I live with myself.

Thank you for ignoring everything after the second sentence of my post, aka the more important part. Truly a productive way to continue this conversation.

[Rynjin]

Thank you for ignoring everything after the second sentence of my post, aka the more important part. Truly a productive way to continue this conversation.

Because it's also inaccurate, so there's not much to comment on.

Paladin has two decks, sure (Mech and Big). Taken together, they make up 3% of the meta, and both have a below 50% winrate.

Priest has Resurrect and Nomi; both are 1.7% popularity, both have under 50% winrates.

Shaman has two popular decks, but only one wins games: Murloc Shaman. The other is a 43% winrate Control Shaman deck.

Warlock has one deck, Zoo. The next highest winrate deck is Plot twist, with a 33% winrate.

Druid has one deck, token, the next nearest at 41% winrate.

Warrior has 3 decks...all variants of Control Warrior: Classic Control, Bomb Control, and Mehca'Thun Control.

The only classes with multiple legit decks are Mage (Spell and Dragon, with Spell being juuust under 50%) and Hunter (which has a whopping 4 decks above 50%, so it's the only class with any variety).

The meta's pretty **** ATM, in short. The single player content came out at the exact right time for me since my main class is paladin.

[Zevox]

Because it's also inaccurate, so there's not much to comment on.

Paladin has two decks, sure (Mech and Big). Taken together, they make up 3% of the meta, and both have a below 50% winrate.

Priest has Resurrect and Nomi; both are 1.7% popularity, both have under 50% winrates.

Shaman has two popular decks, but only one wins games: Murloc Shaman. The other is a 43% winrate Control Shaman deck.

Warlock has one deck, Zoo. The next highest winrate deck is Plot twist, with a 33% winrate.

Druid has one deck, token, the next nearest at 41% winrate.

Warrior has 3 decks...all variants of Control Warrior: Classic Control, Bomb Control, and Mehca'Thun Control.

The only classes with multiple legit decks are Mage (Spell and Dragon, with Spell being juuust under 50%) and Hunter (which has a whopping 4 decks above 50%, so it's the only class with any variety).

The meta's pretty **** ATM, in short. The single player content came out at the exact right time for me since my main class is paladin.

We were talking about Rogue's strength specifically, though. Unless you mean to tell me those are the numbers for vs Tempo Rogue specifically? Which isn't what the page you linked shows, though again, I can't see the "matchups" page which I'm guessing may get more specific about it, just the numbers against classes as a whole, which are pretty pointless, since you play against decks, not classes.

Edit: Yeah, just poking around even a little bit, your argument is turning up spurious fast. For instance, since Control Shaman is one I've felt comfortable facing Rogue with, I looked into that. While that site shows it with an overall win rate of 43% like you said, that's aggregating all versions of it that exist, and those vary quite a bit. The version the site lists as the most-played shows a 50% overall win rate, with a 62% win rate versus Rogue specifically (which, since it also indicates that 86% of Rogue decks are Tempo Rogue, likely does indicate a good win rate against that in particular, since there's so little of anything else to affect the numbers). The one that it has as the highest win rate version, though that has a smaller sample size of 4,600 matches, has a 52% overall win rate and a 57% win rate versus Rogue in particular. And while I'm not running exactly either of those, my own deck is pretty similar to the first. So I think it's fair to say that the data that site has backs up my anecdote as far as that deck goes.

A quick glance at its data on Resurrect Priest looks similarly to confirm my (admittedly much less confident due to not having played it a lot) suspicion there: the most popular version has a 48% win rate versus Rogue and a 52% overall win rate, the highest win rate version has a 49% win rate versus Rogue and a 55% overall win rate, which is indeed not too bad.

[Rynjin]

57% vs Rogue in general, yeah. Remember there are like 3 different Rogue decks but two have a 40% winrate.

[Psyren]

but if Rogues hit by this, that means Warrior is now on top. sure no Elysiana, but its still going to be a bit of a slog. hello control warrior meta for a month before they nerf that into oblivion with the wrong cards there as well.

I don't think this is true, and both Trump and Kibler did a good job of articulating why. There are actually a lot of decks that can outvalue Control Warrior, but nobody is playing them because rogue just curbstomps before they can get going. They include Mech Paladin, OTK Paladin, Mech Hunter, Conjure Mage, Control Shaman, and even Nomi Priest. Moreover, with the nerfs to Prep and Raiding Party, Wagglepick will be less of a clear and present danger, meaning that every single deck can now ease off on the weapon destruction (Jones and Ooze). That means they have room in their lists for even better tech against warrior.

Control Warrior will still be strong (and for that matter, so will Tempo Rogue) but I'm confident that we can wait and see how these changes impact the meta before rebalancing further. And then, as those tempo decks take off, aggro will get more of a foothold too (e.g. Murloc Shaman and Token Druid.)

[Resileaf]

Depending on how things go, I may have to turn my bomb warrior into Mecha'thun, depending on how badly I get wrecked by non-rogue decks when the changes come. I'm almost at rank 6 right now, could probably be higher if I played more than my dailies.

[Geno9999]

The more I think about it, the more I'm surprised that there aren't more decks running Spellbreaker or Ironbeak Owls. Maybe when Mech decks become more prominent after the nerfs we'll see them pop up more often to punish Magnetic plays.

EDIT: *EXPLODES THE DOOR* GUYS. HOLY ****. THE MAD LADS AT BLIZZARD ACTUALLY DID IT! THEY'RE BUFFING CARDS. It doesn't look like they'll land at the same time as the Nerfs, but on June 3rd with the Rise of the Mech event. Also there's gonna be a new free Legendary:

SN1P-SN4P 3 Mana 2/3 Legendary Mech Minion. Magnetic, Echo. Deathrattle: Summon two 1/1 Microbots.

"Important Note: SN1P-SN4P will be considered part of the The Boomsday Project and will rotate with that set. Note, however that SN1P-SN4P will not drop from The Boomsday Project card packs. Golden SN1P-SN4P will only be obtainable as part of the Rise of the Mech event, and the normal SN1P-SN4P can only be crafted with dust."

[Requizen]

https://playhearthstone.com/en-us/bl...00000006342996

Buffing cards from Boomsday and a free Legendary next month!

Sn1p-Sn4p looks pretty solid. As a flat 3 drop it's already ok-ish, as a Magnetic buff it's good with a lot of things. The dream is of course Turn 9 buff a minion with "+6/+9 Deathrattle: Fill your board", which could be fun, but in general you could also throw out 3 good bodies as well.

Gloop Sprayer is still a tad too expensive at 7 and not a huge amount of 3 drop targets for combos, nor sticky targets on 6.
Mulchmuncher was already pretty good at 10, now is going to be a reasonable card for Token Druid.

Necromechanic might see play, especially with Mech Hunter having a good amount of Deathrattles.
Flark's Boomzooka is still too RNG to be worth.

Unexpected Results is still just bad in general imo.
Pocket Galaxy might see some play at 5 mana. That's a big drop for a card like that.

Crystology... are 1 mana minion flood decks a thing? Will this buff make them a thing? Probably not, Call To Adventure is probably just the better version even with the mana change.
Some decks were already running Glowstone Technician at 6. This just makes it better.

Extra Arms would be great if there was a buffing Priest deck that wasn't just Wall/Rez Priest.
Is Thief Priest a thing anymore? No? Cloning Device is still meh. The effect is great for info and some value generation, but it was already doing that at 2 and making it 1 doesn't make it too much more interesting.

*Sounds of Pogo-Hoppers in the distance* "Run"
Violet Haze is still bad though.

Stormbringer will just continue being meme tier, but now more efficient memes.
Thunderhead was already a good card in things like Control Shaman. Why make it better?

Spirit Bomb buff is really nuts, if there was a good Control/Emo Warlock deck out there. Maybe there will be with Rogue Nerfs?
Dr Morrigan is still laughable. The effect is cool but so unreliable and deck dependent.

Security Rover buff is a buff to Dr Boom. Blizzardddd!!!
Same for Nullifier.
Neither will be hard run in decks, of course, but now getting them off of Omega Assembly or Delivery Drone will be extra heartbreaking for the opponent.

[Resileaf]

Card buffs instead of nerfs? Is it opposite day already?

[Seerow]

Card buffs instead of nerfs? Is it opposite day already?

I actually checked 3 times to see if it was actually april fools day. I was pretty sure we would never see a buff to a card, ever.

[Rodin]

Buffs are appreciated, but I just don't get where they're going with most of these.

Gloop Sprayer being slightly less expensive does nothing to enable a new archetype. So...pointless.

Mulch Muncher was already a good card - the thing that lets Treant decks down is the rest of the archetype.

Necromechanic - Why are we buffing a card that supports the best deck in Hunter? Seriously, why?

Boom-Zooka - I at least get why they're buffing this one - it's a legendary and a cool card, if useless. Reducing the cost doesn't change how useless it is. I think they would have been better served by increasing the cost by 1 and removing the "Minions die" clause. Heck, maybe even just removing the death clause and leaving the mana cost alone would be fine.

Unexpected Results and Luna's - I get these. Pushing Spell Power mage and Luna Mage. I don't know that it helps enough to make a different, but I understand.

Crystology and Glowstone Technician. Um...these cards are already being run. Not in Tier 1 decks, this is true. But they're considered good enough to run. Odd choices.

Extra Arms and Cloning Device - Again, what are they expecting to accomplish with these buffs? They've made two really bad cards slightly less poor, and neither one enables anything. Weird.

Pogo-Hopper and Violet Haze - See, this is where buffs should be going. Each card supports a deck type, and could use a buff. Nice.

Thunderhead - Um, again, already being run. Why buff it?

Stormbringer buff is cool.

Spirit Bomb - Wasn't this card already seeing play? As in, tier 1 deck level play? I confess I'm not up to much on Warlock decks, but I swear that it was being used.

Dr. Morrigan - Again, what deck do they expect to enable?

Security Rover and Beryllium Nullifier - WHY? DEAR GOD WHY??? The third and fourth best mechs to get off Boom, and you're BUFFING them? There were NO other cards in the class you considered worthy?

[CarpeGuitarrem]

The Unexpected Results buff is potentially pretty good, if there's a deck for it. Now you're paying one card and 3 mana for 4 mana of stats. That feels arena playable at minimum, and very close to Piloted Shredder in terms of stats per mana.

[Rynjin]

Unexpected Results being 3 mana ups its Spell Damage potential considerably. If you can get a Spellzerker to stick, you could potentially drop a pair of 4 mana minions on Turn 3, which ain't bad. With enough synergy you could pump out a pair of 9s or 10s on 6-7. Some kind of combo Minion Mage that runs spell damage cards could be neat with it.

The 4 mana cost makes it always come out a turn later, which reduces the value of the "cheating".

[Psyren]

Crystology and Glowstone Technician. Um...these cards are already being run. Not in Tier 1 decks, this is true. But they're considered good enough to run. Odd choices.

My thought exactly. On the plus side, I run this deck, so I'll be very looking forward to ladder on 6/3

Pogo-Hopper and Violet Haze - See, this is where buffs should be going. Each card supports a deck type, and could use a buff. Nice.

Deathrattle Rogue coming back could be very interesting.

Pogo is a bit scarier now. Hopper -> Shadowstep -> Hopper is a turn 1 3/3 mech. Then turn 2 you Lab Tech it, Turn 3 Elekk... and Sprint can pull and drop 3 of them lategame.

EDIT: Oh crap, Pogohopper works with Magic Carpet now, doesn't it?

[Zevox]

57% vs Rogue in general, yeah. Remember there are like 3 different Rogue decks but two have a 40% winrate.

You do realize you're now agreeing with one of my previous points about your own proffered data not being specific enough to prove what you were trying to push it as proving, right?

In addition, I covered that the site mentions that 87% of Rogues are Tempo Rogue, so having a good win rate against Rogue in general almost certainly requires a good win rate against Tempo Rogue specifically. Besides, I'd honestly fully expect the second most popular Rogue, Thief Rogue, to be a much harder matchup for Control Shaman than Tempo Rogue. Those particular Control Shaman lists are teched mainly against aggro (Pyromancers + cheap spells, double MCT, triple weapon destruction) and is more vulnerable to other Control decks, with their worst matchup class by far listed as Warrior, which you yourself noted is entirely variants of Control Warrior these days. And in general slower decks like Control Shaman are the ones that are vulnerable to Thief Rogue, since they give it time to set up its crazy Tak + Espionage or Tess plays.

But in any case, since you're not pulling out specific deck vs deck data I'm going to assume that you too do not have access to that past that site's paywall, in which case there's a rather hard limit to how specific we can get in discussing this. And it seems there's something more interesting to talk about now anyway.

EDIT: *EXPLODES THE DOOR* GUYS. HOLY ****. THE MAD LADS AT BLIZZARD ACTUALLY DID IT! THEY'RE BUFFING CARDS. It doesn't look like they'll land at the same time as the Nerfs, but on June 3rd with the Rise of the Mech event. Also there's gonna be a new free Legendary:

SN1P-SN4P 3 Mana 2/3 Legendary Mech Minion. Magnetic, Echo. Deathrattle: Summon two 1/1 Microbots.

"Important Note: SN1P-SN4P will be considered part of the The Boomsday Project and will rotate with that set. Note, however that SN1P-SN4P will not drop from The Boomsday Project card packs. Golden SN1P-SN4P will only be obtainable as part of the Rise of the Mech event, and the normal SN1P-SN4P can only be crafted with dust."

*spits out drink he wasn't drinking*
*double checks, it is May 21st, not April 1st*

Holy ****. This hasn't happened since the damn beta. Goddamn, for once an actually pleasant surprise announcement! Before I say anything else, let me just say that I hope this is a start of a new pattern. If they want to try to shake up the meta mid-expansion regularly, I'd far rather it be by buffing cards than nerfing.

Anyway, on specific cards:

Gloop Sprayer - Probably doesn't make a difference. Fundamentally, this card wants to be played on big things, but still costs too much to make that work in one turn without Dreampetal Florist discounting two of the three cards involved, which is a lot harder to do now with Druid having lost much of its control power in the rotation. Plus it just copying one thing isn't enough to justify it thanks to Faceless Manipulator existing to do that cheaper if that's all you want.

Mulch Muncher - Eh, makes it slightly better, but if it wasn't already in Token Druid when it's running two copies of The Forest's Aid and Landscaping, I don't think this will help it enough to make it see play there, and the other Treant cards still aren't strong enough to make their own deck out of.

Necromechanic - Well now, that one is probably a big deal. We will likely be seeing this added to Mech Hunters, which might greatly enhance them. Scary thought, personally.

Flark's Boom-Zooka - Meaningless. The problem with this card is its fundamental design is just too unreliable and generally not very good, I don't think dropping it just one mana makes any difference at all.

Unexpected Results - Could be a big deal, if a Tempo Mage of some kind existed. But at the moment that's been pretty dead thanks to the Mana Wyrm nerf. Will this revive it? Eh, I'm not sure, but it might pop up after future expansions give the archetype a further hand.

Luna's Pocket Galaxy - Probably doesn't matter. Like Flark's Boom-Zooka, the issue here is the card's basic design. What kinds of deck want mana savings this extreme? Either a tempo deck or a combo one. But the former really doesn't like paying 5 mana for a card that does nothing on the turn it's played, and the latter can't count on its combo pieces still being in the deck when it casts this. If they were making it discount the cards in your hand instead of dropping the mana cost it would become a scary as hell card for a combo deck, but just dropping the mana I don't think matters unless you take it crazy low (like to 3 or less).

Crystology - I'm aware this is being used in a fringe Mech Paladin right now, and has seen a bit of other fringe use previously, but with how bad off Paladin is as a whole I don't know how much this will matter. Still, 1 mana draw 2 which tutors for specific cards and has no preconditions besides those being in your deck is definitely very strong on paper, so this is one to watch for.

Glowstone Technician - Similar to Crystology, I know of that Mech Paladin right now, but am not sure whether this makes enough difference to push it up given how far Paladin has fallen in the post-Equality/Divine Favor world. I will say that this is potentially scary with the new legendary, though.

Extra Arms - Goes from being a bad card to a good one on paper. The problem is that it's hard to imagine what Priest deck actually wants this. Maybe Silence Priest, possibly?

Cloning Device - Basically just sets this to where it should have been from the start, on par with all of the other "1 mana discover a card" spells we've seen throughout the game's life. Doesn't make it playable though, since there's still no reason you want to spend a card just to discover a minion from your opponent's deck most of the time.

Pogo-Hopper - Honestly, I would guess that this won't make a difference. I don't think mana cost was the issue with Pogo-Hopper, it's the fact that it requires so much setup for its payoff, basically forcing it to be a Control Rogue deck, and Rogue of course is not good at that. I'd be happy if I'm wrong though, if this becomes usable it'll be like Jade Rogue used to be, except hopefully better since that was never actually good.

Violet Haze - Don't think this matters. It's now slightly better Astral Rift, in that it always gives you deathrattle minions rather than any and all minions. But why would Rogue want that? It's a value card in a class that doesn't do value decks - and even if it did, it has things like Espionage + Tak, Tess, Pogo-Hopper + Togwaggle's Scheme/Lab Recruiter, and so on as better options.

Thunderhead - I like seeing this get a buff, but am not sure it matters. It's always sort of been on the periphery of playability, but I think what it needs is better overload cards, not a buff to itself.

Stormbringer - Probably doesn't matter? I don't know, that was my first gut instinct, but part of me half wonders whether Murloc Shaman might consider trying this now.

Spirit Bomb - Makes this card look pretty good, except for the issue that Warlock lacks healing to give a Control Warlock staying power right now, so it's not a huge fan of putting in more self-damage than Hellfire already gives it. Maybe in the future.

Dr. Morrigan - Doesn't help enough I think. She just requires that you warp your deck in weird ways to make her work, and I don't see any reason that her being cheaper will help with that.

Security Rover & Beryllium Nullifier - Won't make enough difference for them to actually see play in a deck directly I think, but Omega Assembly and Doctor Boom appreciate the minor buff to a couple of the minions they discover.

Security Rover and Beryllium Nullifier - WHY? DEAR GOD WHY??? The third and fourth best mechs to get off Boom, and you're BUFFING them? There were NO other cards in the class you considered worthy?

They were buffing specifically Boomsday cards, so... no, honestly, there weren't much in the way of other options. I mean, look:

Spoiler: Warrior Boomsday cards

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Eternium Rover
Omega Assembly
Rocket Boots
Weapons Project
Dyn-o-Matic
Supercollider
Security Rover
Beryllium Nullifier
Doctor Boom, Mad Genius
The Boomship

Half of those are staples in Control Warrior right now, Supercollider is in some versions, and The Boomship is a combo piece for Mecha'Thun. That leaves Security Rover, Beryllium Nullifier, and Rocket Boots. And the latter is just, well, kind of a fundamentally uninteresting card. Even if they buffed it, I'm not sure what it would go with that could make it see play - especially when most of the minions in current Warrior decks rush anyway, either because they're rush cards to begin with or because Doctor Boom gives them rush.
Edit: Also, dropping Rocket Boots' mana cost to 1 would make it strictly-better Charge. Which would still probably be fine, but may be a reason they avoided that.

[Psyren]

I would love if they reverted Mana Wyrm to 1 mana and then either made it a 1/2, 0/3, or gave it a cap of some kind.

[Rynjin]

You do realize you're now agreeing with one of my previous points about your own proffered data not being specific enough to prove what you were trying to push it as proving, right?

Not quite. I was looking at both overall and specific data, not just one or the other.

In addition, I covered that the site mentions that 87% of Rogues are Tempo Rogue, so having a good win rate against Rogue in general almost certainly requires a good win rate against Tempo Rogue specifically. Besides, I'd honestly fully expect the second most popular Rogue, Thief Rogue, to be a much harder matchup for Control Shaman than Tempo Rogue. Those particular Control Shaman lists are teched mainly against aggro (Pyromancers + cheap spells, double MCT, triple weapon destruction) and is more vulnerable to other Control decks, with their worst matchup class by far listed as Warrior, which you yourself noted is entirely variants of Control Warrior these days. And in general slower decks like Control Shaman are the ones that are vulnerable to Thief Rogue, since they give it time to set up its crazy Tak + Espionage or Tess plays.

I don't have much to go on with Thief Rogue besides my own experiences and the limited data (vs Shaman in general it has a respectable 55% winrate), so I'm not sure whether that winrate is primarily because of Murloc, Big, or Control matchups.

But in any case, since you're not pulling out specific deck vs deck data I'm going to assume that you too do not have access to that past that site's paywall, in which case there's a rather hard limit to how specific we can get in discussing this. And it seems there's something more interesting to talk about now anyway.

You speak the true-true. Sometimes I consider paying for it because man do I love useless data (I mean this is one of my favorite Youtube channels) but then remember that's a huge waste of money until/unless they let me write about HS at work.

[Joran]

One thing these new changes help is the new Specialist format and Grandmasters.

For those who don't know, the new competitive format is a single deck with 2 different versions with 5 cards different from the first deck. They also made a weekly match system, so instead of having to wait for an event, they have matches every week.

Once you play your primary version, you can opt into one of your other versions. So the first week was a ton of Bomb Warrior mirrors, with an odd Mage here and there and like one hunter.

If the meta stays the same, my god, you'll have nothing but boredom. Now with the nerfs coming soon, then a couple weeks later some buffs, they at least add some diversity to the pool and shake things up.

[Psyren]

Oh, we haven't talked about SN1P-SN4P because we were excited over the buffs. Turns out there is a turn 5 OTK with that card, in Priest, so I would expect it (or at least the interaction below) to be nerfed. Spoilered for those who want to figure it out on their own:

Spoiler

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1) Get a mech that sticks to the board by turn 4. Coppertail Imposter is the card of choice for this due to its 4 health and stealth, but any mech will do really.

2) Turn 5 play Reckless Experimenter. Your SN1P-SN4P now costs zero - and so do all its Echo copies, because they have deathrattle just like the original.

3) Magnetize your zero-cost SN1P-SN4Ps to your Coppertail NI times, swing for face.


Presumably this never came up before because this new legendary is the only card with both Echo and Magnetic to be printed, and Priest has one of the few cards that can provides a permanent cost reduction to an Echo card. Of course, within that knowledge we have the means of fixing it too.

I guess something like this could have come up before with Glinda Crowskin - but who in the heck was going to play her anyway?