Smugglers & Scallywags

[Valmark]

So... I baned myself and The Outsider baned Jeen. That could be a lie though (AV said that if you post a night action in your private QT it takes precedence).

As far as other cultists go, I'd say Caerulea when Outsider flips cultist, to prove the theory of the previous Day.
And yes, the fear of a Day-Bane is strong. I'm just going to hope that isn't the case or that the Cult buddy got Day-Baned.

I have an hard time thinking Jeen could have been converted even if we think that Outsider is indeed Town- mainly because I don't see what he gains by putting himself at risk to get Outsider lynched. Is a trusted member of Town (the most trusted?) Worth losing to get one more mislynch?

Unless the Cult is going to win after a mislynch, I guess. But I kinda doubt that.

[Caerulea]

I'm a bit skeptical of there being 4 baners, 2 seers, all of which have communication with another starting town. It feels too unfair to the cult. They have a 36% chance of outright failing, going up each night, and a 16% chance of the original cultist getting found N1. If there is two starting cultists (there's not, I'm a vanillager) then the odds are a little better, but I don't think that is consistent with scry results.

So... I baned myself and The Outsider baned Jeen. That could be a lie though (AV said that if you post a night action in your private QT it takes precedence).

As far as other cultists go, I'd say Caerulea when Outsider flips cultist, to prove the theory of the previous Day.
And yes, the fear of a Day-Bane is strong. I'm just going to hope that isn't the case or that the Cult buddy got Day-Baned.

Going me is entirely dependent upon what exactly The Outsider's role is. If, for instance, they are not a baner, then we will lynch you. Otherwise we could lynch me, but I'd rather JeenLeen scry me so that we don't waste a lynch.

[Valmark]

I'm a bit skeptical of there being 4 baners, 2 seers, all of which have communication with another starting town. It feels too unfair to the cult. They have a 36% chance of outright failing, going up each night, and a 16% chance of the original cultist getting found N1. If there is two starting cultists (there's not, I'm a vanillager) then the odds are a little better, but I don't think that is consistent with scry results.


Going me is entirely dependent upon what exactly The Outsider's role is. If, for instance, they are not a baner, then we will lynch you. Otherwise we could lynch me, but I'd rather JeenLeen scry me so that we don't waste a lynch.

Yeah, that's fair. There is no reason for him to not be a baner (based on the current proof, at least) so I don't really consider the idea.

Scrying you or 're-scrying' someone would be a good idea though, yeah.

[JeenLeen]

I've been thinking some more, and going with The Outsider today does sound best to me. Yes, there's a chance of a Daybane, but I think we'd be better off confirming him as cult (for, if he is daybaned, he is surely cult), and I think we have a chance of winning (even if it might depend on RNG) if he stays alive. If he dies, we can probably keep it out of RNG run-off between 3 baners and 3 cult (JeenLeen, Elenna, Caerulea). I am not claiming cult, but I highly doubt you can trust me to stay Town tomorrow! You baners need to protect yourselves, (or at least lie and say your are protecting yourselves so that the cult doesn't know the weak point and would have 1/3 chance of getting a baner.)

I'll make a longer post after I think through some things and double-check the logic for accruacy, but I think we lynch The Outsider today, the baners all bane another baner, and then we lynch one of Caerulea, Elenna, or myself the next Day. Hopefully at least one of us three is still Town and goes with the baners. That will put us at 3 Town-baners vs 2 unknowns, the Town controls the vote, and we win.

But, if I find time, I hope to plot out every scenario based on 1) if The Outsider is scum or not, and 2) if The Outsider is daybaned or not, and 3) whether nobody, Caerulea, or Caerulea and Elenna are currently cult.
My biggest fear is that Book Wombat is secretly cult, but I think we need to assume otherwise, since otherwise we probably lose as the cult has been converting whoever he's been supposed to have been baning and we've basically lost already.

I'm a bit skeptical of there being 4 baners, 2 seers, all of which have communication with another starting town. It feels too unfair to the cult. They have a 36% chance of outright failing, going up each night, and a 16% chance of the original cultist getting found N1. If there is two starting cultists (there's not, I'm a vanillager) then the odds are a little better, but I don't think that is consistent with scry results.

It's consistent with scry results, if we discount Cao's scrys as the N1 converts.
But I agree it's... well, a mixed bag of fair-unfair. I think the cult has almost won this game... hopefully not in the sense of winning if we mislynch (I think getting Cao got us out of that territory), but in the sense of they probably win if 2 of the 4 baners are cult, unless we get profoundly lucky or there's less cult than there could be.

- - - Updated - - -

For my action tonight: I plan to scry Caerulea or Elenna. I hope the baners will be baning themselves, and thus not be scryable anyhow.
OOH--if I get No Info on one of them, that means one of our 3 baners is cult, right? Be horrible if true, but good to know.

On the other hand, if I claim a No Info the next Day, you probably shouldn't trust me since I could have been converted and be trying to sow discord amongst the Town.

[Valmark]

Yes, it's likely if you get No Info on Caerulea or Elenna that a baner is Cult, assuming we bane each other (which is likely the best result).

[JeenLeen]

Assume 1 original cultist
N1 convert: Cao
N2 convert: Caerulea or The Outsider (hopefully not Book Wombat!)
N3 convert: Caerulea
N4 convert: Caerulea, Elenna, or The Outsider
So current cult could be The Outsider, could be The Outsider and Caerulea, or (if we're in real bad shape) could be Caerulea, The Outsider, and Elenna. But we have at least a 50% chance of winning unless it's the last scenario.

Here's the analysis I was hoping to do

Assume Book Wombat, Libro, and Valmark are Town. I'm certain of Valmark due to my scry and him self-baning N4, but it's possible Book Wombat/Libro got infiltrated... but if so, kinda screwed, so let's assume not.
Assume Book Wombat, Libro, and Valmark cycle banes to keep the three of them Town.

NOTE: if there were 2 original cultists, I think it must be Xi and Caerulea. That doesn't change the analysis below a lot, though.

If The Outsider is Town

I'm scum. Cult is likely Caerulea, JeenLeen, and maybe Elenna.
We mislynch The Outsider, and tonight the cult is certainly Caerulea, JeenLeen, and Elenna.

Next day: 3 baners vs 3 cult. RNG determines who wins the game.

If The Outsider is Scum

I'm Town today. But don't trust me after today, since I could be converted.

[i]If The Outsider is NOT day-baned[i]
Cult is probably Caerulea and/or Elenna.

Next day: 3 baners + probably at least 1 town vs. 1-2 cultist
We lynch whoever the baners say to.
The baners outnumber the non-baners, and we win since control vote.

[i]If The Outsider is day-baned[i]
Cult is probably The Outsider, Caerulea, and/or Elenna. But based on number of nights and chances for a conversion failing, assume it's not all of them.

During the night: probable cult becomes The Outsider, JeenLeen, Caerulea/Elenna.
Next day it's 3 baners + 1 townie vs. 2-3 cultist.
We lynch whoever the baners say to.
The next Day it's 3 baners vs. 3 cultists. RNG determines who wins the game.

Although there's a chance that there's 3 cult now (The Outsider, Caerulea, Elenna) and a daybane means I join them tonight, which puts it to 4 cult vs 3 Town, and cult wins. But let's hope there was at least one non-conversion.


CONCLUSION
We should still vote The Outsider.

Town has a 50% chance of winning if I'm a fool or scum.
Town wins if The Outsider is not daybaned.
Town has a 50% chance of winning if The Outsider is day-baned. Or, maybe we lose if there's 3 cult currently and they convert me tonight, but let's hope that's not the case.

[Elenna]

Hmmm. Given yesterday's discussion there's a good chance The Outsider day-baned himself. But that would mean he can't do it again tomorrow, so if we vote Outsider two days in a row we're guaranteed to get one cultist. (Barring some fringe situations, like the cult having two baners already, or JeenLeen being a cultist. But if we're in those situations, we're likely screwed anyways.)
Plus we'd have a chance at two cultists if Outsider didn't day-bane himself.

If we vote Caerulea and then Outsider (which I think it's the only other reasonable option for today's vote, unless I'm missing something), we get an extra cultist lynch if they're cult, but we mislynch a townie otherwise. Either way we should be able to lynch Outsider tomorrow when he's not day-baned. Unless Outsider decided to daybane Caerulea instead of himself, I guess, but we'd still be able to lynch Caerulea tomorrow in that case.

(I'm ignoring the possibility that Caerulea isn't cult and Outsider didn't day bane himself. If Caerulea isn't cult, I think it's likely that Outsider s the only cultist (although I'll have to double check) in which case I can't imagine he would have risked not being daybaned and possibly being lynched before converting anyone else. Even if he's not the only cultist, not daybaning when he knew JL was going to scry him would be a really weird move.)

I think there's a fairly large chance that Caerulea is a wolf, but I'm not sure if it's worth risking a mislynch for. The dangerous situation is if Outsider has one buddy and it's not Caerulea, then if they successfully convert tomorrow night, a mislynch today would bring us to 3/6 cult tomorrow. In that case we definitely prefer a no lynch over a mislynch today, in order for town to keep the majority tomorrow.
OTOH if there are currently three cultists, then we have to successfully lynch a cultist today, and I don't think we'll do that by voting Outsider.

So there are risks either way, but I think the chance of having three living cultists is pretty low since that would require cult to have never missed a conversion. So I'm voting The Outsider

[JeenLeen]

If we're supremely lucky, then the N2 convert was either nobody or Caerulea. Since Caerulea was the only person vulnerable N3, either way means the cult is a -1 conversions.
It also means The Outsider is the N4 convert, likely really did bane me, and thus is not daybaned.
I think such would also mean Caerulea is necessarily a cultist, since otherwise we would have won once Cao was lynched. (Assuming Book Wombat and Libro are clean.)

Another fortunate possibility is if The Outsider was the N2 convert, but the cult failed to do any other conversions. If that's the case, we win, but I reckon the cult likely got somebody N3 or N4.

...but, really, as fun as analysis and what-ifs are, I guess there's not much to say or do until we see how The Outsider flips and what happens.
I'm going to try (and probably fail) to stay off the forums and focus more on work for the rest of the day.

[JeenLeen]

Slight correction to my analysis a couple posts up

If The Outsider is day-baned, we should lynch him the following Day (when he can't daybane himself). I wrote "whoever the baners say to lynch", but I forgot the obvious need to kill The Outsider while he's vulnerable to killin'.

[Book Wombat]

My biggest fear is that Book Wombat is secretly cult, but I think we need to assume otherwise, since otherwise we probably lose as the cult has been converting whoever he's been supposed to have been baning and we've basically lost already.

MUAHAHAHAHAHHA!!!

Jokes aside I'll vote for The Outsider too.

[The Outsider]

I'm getting a lot of flashbacks to the Thing game here, and I don't like it. I just wish I could prove that I'm not a cultist. But I can't, and I'm pretty sure the cult is going to win after I get lynched.

[JeenLeen]

One thing I'm really liking about this game, compared to some others, is that it seems a good mix of analysis and power-info. I guess that's in part because we have limited power-info and have to depend on analysis. But it's nice. I've felt like some games have been carried too much on powers.

Even if my power is wrong (e.g., I'm a randomized fool who got lucky N1 but wrong last night), The Outsider still seems the most likely cultist. Or at least a likely cultist, and for some reason the baners consider him a more likely cultist than Book Wombat. I guess it's possible I'm a fool and The Outsider is Town, but if that's the case then I think it's likely that some mix of Valmark and/or Book Wombat are cult, and I don't think we can win (at least in a systematic way*) if the cult has half or most of the baners after the upcoming Night.

*we can probably still win by luck, if the cult happens to try to convert the person who is baned, but we'd have to be really lucky. And that's hard since the cult has a better idea of who is cult than us.

So, even if my power is questionable (which I don't think it is), voting The Outsider still makes sense.

---

I hope the above doesn't seem overly defensive and make folk question me. I'm in-between tasks at work and wanted to take a little break, saw The Outsider's post, and wanted to give it a serious discussion point. Probably more serious than it deserves. If he does flip Town, the conclusion isn't that I'm a fool, but that I'm scum. Though the real (and unsurprising) answer is that I am a random-fool and AV lied about there being one element of randomness.
Or I guess a wolf could have the ability to make someone look cult (as The Outsider speculated as an unlikely possibility), but if that were the case I think they'd have used it already on someone I was scrying (since Cao. and thus the cult, knew who I was scrying). That would've kept Cao alive at least another Night and probably guaranteed the win by now.

[Grand Arbiter]

If the cult doesn’t include The Outsider, color me fooled.

MUAHAHAHAHAHHA!!!

*shakes sheet of tin to create dramatic thunder*

[JeenLeen]

@AV: will Day end about 2 pm EST (as it had been most phases) or 8 pm EST (as the last Night ended there-ish)?

If the cult doesn’t include The Outsider, color me fooled.

And me the Fool!
Honestly, if not that I'm pretty sure I'm not a Fool, and if not that I got a scry result, I'd be really worried that the cult is all-baners. In a sense, the fact that Valmark is Town makes me think The Outsider could be the N4 convert. Which means either Libro and Book Wombat are clean (and we probably win after today, if we don't kill each other out of paranoia) or they are cult (Book Wombat taken N2, sometime after then taking Libro (N3), and soon able to take Valmark as he'll be unable to self-bane tonight-->cult wins.)

So, really, I think the Town wins if the cult is
-The Outsider
-The Outsider, Caeruela
-The Outsider, Elenna
It'll be a 50/50 tie if the cult is currently
-The Outsider, Caerulea, Elenna (they convert me tonight and it's 3 vs 3)
If there's any other baners in the cult, we're probably doomed unless we're exceedingly lucky.

...which is probably stuff I've already said 2 or 3 times. I guess just felt like talking while asking AV something and making Libro's statement a sorta-pun.

[AvatarVecna]

@AV: will Day end about 2 pm EST (as it had been most phases) or 8 pm EST (as the last Night ended there-ish)?

8pm EST, or whatever time after that when i happen to wake up and get to this game (which is why that phase was a bit delayed in ending in the first place).

So...your guess is as good as mine lol

[JeenLeen]

Question for baners: in your mason QuickTopic, did you get anything confirming if y'all are Town or baners?

Not asking out of suspicion about anything. Just, for the seer mason group, we were just told we were masons. No confirmation about alignment, if powered, or what the powers were. (We spent a lot of time speculating if there was a wolf with the power of making masons, to some benefit.)

[Valmark]

Question for baners: in your mason QuickTopic, did you get anything confirming if y'all are Town or baners?

Not asking out of suspicion about anything. Just, for the seer mason group, we were just told we were masons. No confirmation about alignment, if powered, or what the powers were. (We spent a lot of time speculating if there was a wolf with the power of making masons, to some benefit.)

Same here. The personal QT says I'm Town, but the mason QT only said that we are masons.

[Book Wombat]

Same as Valmark.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Votes

Show

The Outsider: JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, Caerulea, Elenna, Book Wombat, Libro

End Of Day Four

"So I started my investigation into this fellow, and he's been up to an awful lot of shady business."

"I ain't shady, I was guarding your sorry behind all night!"

"Why were you stalking him?"

"What? I wasn't stalking, I was just...following, helpfully!"

"A likely story!"

And so the outsider swung, and they went through his pockets looking for proof he'd been suckered into diabolical piracy. But all they found was...pamphlets about the benefits of unionizing?

The Outsider was lynched. They were the Switch Baner.

You are a townie, the switch baner. Every night, select one player: that player is either baned that night (immune to all other powers), or is daybaned the next day (and is immune to the lynch). You cannot target the same person two days in a row.

Night Four Ends In 24 hours...hopefully

[JeenLeen]

Well, that... stinks. I'm the Fool, I guess.
::re-reads power QuickTopic to make sure didn't misread::
...yep...

So Valmark's not cleared at all, and Elenna could have been taken N3 or earlier. Maybe Caerulea really is Town. I could see the cult slowly recruiting their mason buddies. Maybe they lost a night trying to get me when Cao was still alive.

Well, the obvious move is to lynch me when Day breaks. My only plea in defense is that 1) I got Cao killed and then 2) The Outsider said they baned me the next Night. So it seems pretty clear I am Town, just a Fool.
But the Cult might convert me tonight, and honestly I reckon at least one baner is cult, or was cult a couple Nights ago, so there's likely more now.

I'll put in some power usage tonight, but, like, what's the point?

@AV: like, you're sure he's not cult? No typo there?

3) This game will feature one small element of random chance. No, I will not specify what that is.

Either AV is lying here, or the Fool gets correct result - false result and it cycles.
If so:
N1: Xi scry as scum --CORRECT
N2: Elenna scry as villager --FALSE
N3: Valmark scry as villager--CORRECT
N4: The Outsider scry as scum --FALSE
And my scry tonight should also be correct.

But I've got no reason to believe that's the case beyond it happens to follow what we know, and it gives a non-RNG Fool that is still untrustworthy/inconsistent in results.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll put in some power usage tonight, but, like, what's the point?

AV didn't call the game, so there must be some point. So at least one baner is still Town, and the cult is at most equal to the Town. E.g., it's possible the cult won't control the vote tomorrow.

[Valmark]

Speaking of baners (I'm not going to touch what Jeen said to avoid the risk of giving cultists some ideas) but if we want to trust the plan from last night I kinda need a target. The cultists know I can't bane myself twice by now so I'd need to be baned and then bane my baner (or their buddy).

So basically @Book Wombat, @Libro, who should I bane? Feel free to not reply if you think that'll be more harm then good.

[Elenna]

...

... time to lynch JeenLeen tomorrow, I guess.

[JeenLeen]

Let's assume I'm a Fool who goes Correct, Incorrect, Correct, Incorrect...
So Elenna is scum and Valmark town.
And there could be 1 or 2 starting cultists. That doesn't change the final results.

STARTING CULTISTS: Xi, Elenna OR Xi OR Xi, Caerulea
N1 Convert: Cao (could be others, but really seems was him)
N2 Convert: Elenna OR Book Wombat OR Caerulea (Libro possible but unlikely due to quiet)
N3 Convert: Caerulea is the only unprotected (assuming
N4 Convert: Caerulea is the only unprotected (knowing The Outsider flipped Town and was scryable, he was the unprotected)

If the N2 convert was Book Wombat or Libro, the cultists almost certainly win as they've able to take the baners and/or could take Valmark tonight.

CURRENT CULT: Elenna. Maybe Elenna and Caerulea. If it includes a baner, it's Libro and/or Book Wombat.

If the cult contains a baner, I think it'll auto-win when Day breaks since the cult!baner can take the other baner. Or, if not auto-win, there's enough confusion that the cult will probably win, especially if I get lynched.
If the cult doesn't contain a baner, their only good choice is to convert me, and it's up to RNG to determine the tie (3 baners vs. Elenna, Cearula, JeenLeen) and see who wins.

This post isn't just nightchat to chat, but also to 1) hopefully provide the Town some analysis that might be handy when I flip Town (or, well, if scum by then...guess it won't help in that regard) and 2) while I'm not lying, I am hoping to maybe disrupt cult plans by posting this.

But, all in all, I'm pretty demoralized about the game now. Not really a critique towards AV; it's been a fun game, if a bit too bastard-y (if I'm using that mafia jargon right) for my taste, but this surprise about my powers not working really threw a wrench into all my plans and that is kinda disheartening. I still plan to be engaged and maybe I'll get actively interested if it's not game over with daybreak and I'm not the "everyone vote him" guy.

[Book Wombat]

So basically @Book Wombat, @Libro, who should I bane? Feel free to not reply if you think that'll be more harm then good.

Mind baning Libro?

[Valmark]

Mind baning Libro?

On it. Minimum ten characters.

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Night Four

All was quiet in port. So many captains of industry swung from the gallows - and so many of them, innocent of any wrongdoing (against the crown, at least). Those that remained gathered once more, suspicious glances sent in every direction.

Day Five Ends In 48 Hours

[Book Wombat]

So assuming all the known baners are town and didn't lie, I baned Valmark, Valmark baned Libro and Libro baned me.
Can someone tell me the reason for lynching JeenLeen? Kind of confused.

[Valmark]

So assuming all the known baners are town and didn't lie, I baned Valmark, Valmark baned Libro and Libro baned me.
Can someone tell me the reason for lynching JeenLeen? Kind of confused.

He scried Outsider and said he was a Cultist but Outsider... Well, wasn't.

My only doubt is... Why? Seems like a bad deal. If he was a Cultist he could've just tried to convert Outsider using the fact that it seemed likely he was targetable.

Meanwhile, JeenLeen.

[JeenLeen]

I'm (regretfully now) still Town. I reckon the cultist knew I'd be the lynch target. So it must be 3 vs 3 now, and killing me guarantees their win. Not that I expect anything else to come of it, since they have the baners. Or I'm a totally random Fool.

"Valmark is scum alignment."

So here's my guess, if I'm right about my power cycling wrong/right.

I baned Valmark, Valmark baned Libro and Libro baned me.

Book Wombat is Cult, and they converted Valmark last night. So maybe Libro is still Town, since I could see the cult not recruiting a buddy they're in communication with and trusting.

So, if there's 3 cultists, they are Book Wombat, Valmark, and someone else. I presume Elenna, since I scried her as town on an "off" night (if I'm right about how my power works.)
But I'll leave it to y'all to decide who to trust. I definitely shattered any trust yesterday.

BUT as others have pointed out, there's no good reason for cult!me to have, unless it would win the cult the game. I can argue why, but I don't feel like putting up the effort at least right now. But note that one Day I killed Cao, Town!The Outsider said he baned me that night, and then the next Day I incorrectly said The Outsider was scum.
It makes no sense for cult!me to have gotten Cao killed, when we easily could've gotten someone else. And I couldn't have been converted N3, if The Outsider was honest, and he was Town so we can assume he was.

On the other hand, if I am a Fool, maybe the Town is the baners and me. I just find that really unlikely. If the other two baners want to kill Valmark, I'll jump on that wagon... but... wait, no, I won't, since Valmark should only be cult if some of the other two baners are... or vice-versa, or something. Urgh; not trusting my scry is annoying.
So, like, Elenna?

- - - Updated - - -

So assuming all the known baners are town and didn't lie, I baned Valmark, Valmark baned Libro and Libro baned me.
Can someone tell me the reason for lynching JeenLeen? Kind of confused.

Wait. I got a result on Valmark, not No Info. So Book Wombat must NOT have baned Valmark. So he's cult.

Starting Cult: Xi and Elenna (Xi known cultist, and Elenna scried Town by me N2)
N1: Cao
N2: Book Wombat
N3: Caerulea only possibility if Book Wombat honest out of fear of trackers, but maybe Libro or Elenna (if 1 starting cult) since Book Wombat could lie
N4: Valmark (if my scry is correct now)

So the Town is JeenLeen, Libro, and Caerulea/Elenna.
But, yeah, I think we're finished.

Changing vote to Book Wombat, since Town!Libro likely truly baned him and didn't daybane him.

- - - Updated - - -

Last edited-in thought: the Town must contain at least one baner, or else we essentially lose since we can't stop the cult. Maybe there's some ways we could win if the cult is non-baner, but I doubt it. (If the baners are all Town, they lynch me today, keep baning each other, and just lynch Caerulea and Elenna until game over. So I think AV would call the game if that were the case, unless my bad scry is the wild card that might cause town defeat.)

But, beyond that unlikely scenario, I think it's most likely that Libro is the Town!baner. Not certain by any means, but seems most likely. Last night was the perfect chance for the cult to convert Valmark.

[Elenna]

He scried Outsider and said he was a Cultist but Outsider... Well, wasn't.

My only doubt is... Why? Seems like a bad deal. If he was a Cultist he could've just tried to convert Outsider using the fact that it seemed likely he was targetable.

Meanwhile, JeenLeen.

Maybe cult decided that if they didn't do anything, a cultist would most likely be lynched the next day? So they had JeenLeen fake a cult scry to buy themselves one more day to convert? That theory makes me suspicious of Caerulea, actually...