Middle Earth WW: Fellowship of the Ring

[Cuthalion]

As snowflakes gently curled down, the Fellowship grouped together. Faint growls were heard from the wolves surrounding them, as Legolas shot an arrow through the head of the largest wolf.

Nailed it!

Gather around, everyone. I'm making fire to drive these wolves off.

Okay, Gandalf.

Wait, where's Merry?

Uhm.... fascinating question. Why do you ask?

He's my friend, that's why.

Er...

Where's Merry?

Well...

GANDALF!

Well, look at that wolf.

Om nom nom rrr.

You didn't just...

It was an accident, alright?

ZOMG EPIC FAIL GANDALF HASHTAG EPIC FAIL!!!1!

Spoiler: Results

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Bladescape was killed. He was Merry (Mason).

Spoiler: Player List

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1.Duck999
2.Visor
3.ThePhantom
4.aric_kale
6.Penguinator
8.Aventine
9.Rain Dragon
10.Random_person
11.banjo1985
12.TFT
13.Tasroth
15.Murska
16.zweisteine
17.Lex-kat
19.Tanar Aerdoth
20.andres21295
21.smuchmuch
22.Count Dingdong
23.Eonas
24.Disc Lorde
25.LoP
26.Sprig
27.DarkLightDragon

Day 3 begins. It ends in 48 hours or whenever Murska lynches a wolf.

[Sprig]

Still want to go for Disc_Lorde. Not ecstatic about his posts. Dingdong is also ringing my bell. By about my post Otaku was already condeemed.
So wolves didn't have anything to lose by jumping on Otakuwagon. Unless the remainder of the wolf team were already on there?

EDIT : cross out

[Penguinator]

The files:

Spoiler: Random_person

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I say we hold back from lynching pizza and Murska. If either of them flips village, I have a feeling there'll be a rush to lynch the other - and if they're both villagers, as I believe, we'll have lost two lynches and two top analysts. If one of them is a wolf and we lynch the other but not the one, we'll have put a wolf in an excellent position to control a lot of village opinion for the game. Better, I think, to leave them both - note them as suspicious if you like, but hold off a while. If they are both wolves, then sooner or later, they're bound to slip up.

Random_person makes an interesting case, here. At the same time, if Murska had gotten lynched instead, he would have battled against voting for Askthepizzaguy.

Sure.

There are, essentially, three possibilities. Both Murska and the pizza guy could be villagers, both could be wolves, or one could be a wolf and the other a villager.

In the event that both are villagers, I don't predict lynching one will go well for town. I fear that the other will quickly fall under suspicion and then lynch in that case, and we will have lost two days, two villagers, and two analysts.

In the event that both are wolves, we are a little better off tactically - but much worse strategically, as whichever one we fail to lynch will be certain to spin it into a position of some dominance for the town, possibly even the centre of a therefore-doomed network. We trade a wolf for the rule of another.

In the even that one is a wolf and one is a villager, we have the best outcomes. If we lynch the wolf, the villager looks good for the remainder of the game. If we lynch the villager, the wolf looks bad. I don't personally believe this is the case, however. Even if it were, there's room for even this scenario to go wrong, if we lynch the villager and the wolf plays on my fears from above.

What if we leave them both alive? When do we lose there? The only case I can see is the event that both are wolves - otherwise, we keep at least one good analyst standing to advise village well. And if they are both wolves, well, a duet is harder than a solo - I would guess that they'll slip up at some point, faster than if we left just one of them alive.

And that's why I'm voting for a third party.

Note that Random_person here says he thinks it most likely that both are villagers, and that he does not think one is a wolf and the other a villager.

I, too, could get behind a bladescape lynch, but I'm okay with an otakuryoga lynch as well, and keeping pizza and Murska both alive is a high priority today.

From here, he asserts that he wants Askthepizzaguy and Murska to live. This could be a very subtle defense of a wolf comrade, Askthepizzaguy, without overtly choosing for Murska to die.

We can also assume he is probably not a mason, based on his willingness to take out bladescape.

Maybe, but I'm still of the opinion that a pizzaguy lynch after your clash with Murska goes nothing but poorly for village.

This post is more overt. Here, he specifically does not want Askthepizzaguy to die. Could be that he knew Askthepizzaguy was the wolf.

Random_person is worth keeping an eye on.

Spoiler: Disc Lorde

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Bleh. Sorry guys, I've been busy.

8 minutes left in the day so not much time to make a decision. But random has a point, Pizzaguys's a good analyst. And I'm not so sure anymore about one of ATPG/Murska being wolf, and I see a few people saying that bladescape is suspicious.

So switching to bladescape. Need 1 more on him to change the lynchee to him from ATPG.

This post concerns me. Disc Lorde spent the entire day in favor of lynching Askthepizzaguy, then decides to throw a vote for the soft-claimed town instead? That doesn't work for me.

Also, we can assume Disc Lorde is not a mason.

Guys for the love of the high elves don't roleclaim to Murska!

It is most certainly not impossible that Murska is a wolf who fingered two of his teammates to get village credit. Do I think it's likely that he's a wolf? Not necessarily. But it is still a significant possibility, and if he his a wolf then roleclaiming to him would be disastrous.

If we really need a network we should have one of the masons claim. Or we could just let it form on its own, now that the Alpha's dead.

This post is also suspect. Why ask for a mason to claim publicly? That's asking for trouble.

Missing yesterday, though he had his reasons, does not help Disc Lorde's case.

Disc Lorde is worth analyzing further, but is also not my first choice today.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Rain Dragon

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Hello Aventine.

Rain Dragon is bugging me a bit. He ignored the previous voters, then picks a random vote and supplies... nothing in the way of logic.

Ahh, touché. The oversight nonetheless saddens me.

I shall have to point at someone logically later after Murska and PizzaGuy have finished facing off.

EDIT @v

Then, he promised to point logically after the clash of the titans. Which he...

Egad. I'm more inclined to vote along with the Otakuryoga logic.

I can't words right now.
PizzaGuy and Murska, what can I tell from your posts so far?
You're both insane. 「Not in a bad way」

I'd prefer to think about them for a while. There's no one major slip-up, unless you count PizzaGuy's assessment that Murska slipped up a slip-up.

...Did not do. He voted for otakuryoga, who had two votes at the time, with some interesting bits from Duck.

Spoiler

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Day 1, I am still dealing with a lot of reading and such with toy story, I think that is enough day 1 over analysis for right now. I wan't a more laid back day one, while still looking for wolves, so I will vote
Otakuryoga
A revenge vote after some reasoning has been given for other people may be the kind of laid back kind of vote, but it still doesn't seem fitting for me.
(See how I didn't over analyze)

Duck999 gets townie points.

But Rain Dragon didn't actually give us anything new, and if anything, he seemed to favor Askthepizzaguy.

bladescape called him out on it later, adding him to the list of improbable masons.

I'm not sure what to do now. There's only an hour or two left and I've never played in a game with a voider before.
The next biggest wagon is AskthePizzaGuy so if this is a wolf ploy and someone counterclaims then we have lost one very vocal analyst and a baner for a wolf.

I'm not voting so that someone else can make this decision.

It's midnight here.

EDIT

With my unvote, according to Cuthalius' table (updated to include bladescape) we have...

otakuryoga - TFT, Duck999, Random_person, Chessgeek
Askthepizzaguy - Murska, Disc Lorde, aric_kale, smuchmuch
bladescape - Penguinator, askthepizzaguy, otakuryoga
Rain Dragon - Aventine, Ramsus
Murska - Zweisteine, Lex-kat
Disc Lorde Count - Dingdong
The Fiery Tower - ThePhantom
Penguinator - Sprig
ThePhantom - banjo1985

EDIT - With the votes as they are, the most likely not-baner-claim lynch is AskthePizzaGuy which only needs one vote. Bladescape would need two unless someone else who's voting for Otakuryoga shows up.

Rain Dragon ultimately... did not vote at all. Hmm...

I'm not sure exactly whether I'm allowed to contribute to stuff at night, so I don't post much if at all at night. Bear with. EDIT - Clarified this sentence a bit.

I can see that as well and has banjo1985 on the list.

So far we have 3 votes Lex, 1 vote Murska, 1 vote Rain Dragon. I would like to help look at multiple people today, if that's ok with you guys.
That said, I'm not against lynching Lex-Kat either.

I snipped this post a bit, since it didn't really add anything. But here, Rain Dragon votes for... banjo, because he was suggested by someone else, and he agreed that he'd heard banjo was a good player. Didn't really add anything, again.

Looking at multiple people is all well and good, but then we really didn't.

Since Lex has three votes already, I'll join the Penguinator votes and help even the pressure between the two.

Also, banjo hasn't been around much. His single post doesn't tell me anything too solid and I can read back over Penguinator's stuff later today when I have time.

Here's another promise of future analysis which did not happen. Also, another vote in which Rain Dragon followed someone else and gave no logic of his own.

You wouldn't be the only one to be so surprised by such a move.

I second, third, whatever the opinions on the baner situation. Otakuryoga, alas...

And another vote with no logic given, just a willingness to follow whatever anyone else has said.

And thus, Rain Dragon, I would like to hear your thoughts on who has been suspicious. No cheating and using someone else's logic or following someone's vote purely to follow their vote.

Spoiler: Lex-Kat

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The problem, as I see it, is that Otakuryoga seems to be a favorite early days lynch. There's usually no reason behind them other than "he's a better choice than X." And oddly enough, when people state he's acting suspiciously, he more often than not turns out to be a villager

I notice this, mostly because as a narrator I can easily shake my head in astonishment at the lack of real evidence. He's been killed in this way as a Mason, as a Seer, a Baner, and a lot as a Villager. I'm not saying he's not a Wolf (or whatever they are in this game), but this is just a point of convenience. Let's not kill Murska or PizzaGuy or anyone else who is analyzing to death of these games, is not a good reason to lynch those not speaking long and loud.

So for god's sake, please lynch me already. I've been way too quiet so far.

Also, throwing out Lex-Kat defending otakuryoga.

[Luizeu]

At the moment, these two are the ones who most raise my suspicions: Random_Person and Disc Lorde. Analyzing their votes and the things they say seems like they are always moving away from people we later find out are wolves.

[Duck999]

Rain Dragon ultimately... did not vote at all. Hmm...

If he is a wolf, this could be him trying not to help lynch a wolf teammate, but also trying not to make it look like he was pulling the wagon away from lynching a wolf.

[Lex-Kat]

Hmmm. Very good points, Pengunator.

I'll push for the Disc Lorde vote. But then... that might be suspicious. You guys better look to Rain Dragon, instead.

My only defense in defending Otaku is that what I said was true. He does seem to die early and often. He's like Murska, without the "Always a Wolf" mythology to back it up.

Please note, I didn't say that AskthePizzaGuy wasn't a wolf. I thought both he and Murska were. Still a possibility.

[Duck999]

Hmm, I think Rain Dragon is looking most suspicious right now.
This vote subject to change

[Eonas]

Okay. I'm back! And I echo almost exactly what Duck999 said: Rain Dragon looks most suspicious to me on a gut level, but his precise reading on my suspicion-o-meter will depend on his self-defense.

[Luizeu]

I'm sorry if this is a noob question, but what happens in the event of a draw?

[Duck999]

I'm sorry if this is a noob question, but what happens in the event of a draw?

N000000B! Kidding!
Depends on the game. Some have no lynch. Some have whoever got the votes first. I am not sure about this game.

[Cuthalion]

First person to attain the number of votes is lynched.

[Oseyerys]

First person to attain the number of votes is lynched.

I was actually wondering that very thing... Gratzi for the clarification.

[Zweisteine]

Guys for the love of Eru don't roleclaim to Murska!

It is most certainly not impossible that Murska is a wolf who fingered two of his teammates to get village credit. Do I think it's likely that he's a wolf? Not necessarily. But it is still a significant possibility, and if he is a wolf then roleclaiming to him would be disastrous.

If we really need a network we should have one of the masons claim. Or we could just let it form on its own, now that the Alpha's dead.

Fixed that for you.

Also, that whole post reeks of wolfishness to me. Sure, wolves can lynch their own, but it seems rather strange that they would do it twice in a row, on the first two days. Sure, it's possible, but it isn't what I'd call "a significant possibility." And if he is a wolf, we'll have to watch out for this strategy in the future.

Asking masons to claim is also suspicious. They have no good reason to come out, especially with one of them dead. They'd just become targets.

So, Disc Lorde, justify yourself.

[Duck999]

You know what? I actually looked back at the posts more closely, and I think Disc Lorde is actually more suspicious right now. Even if Rain Dragon is suspicious, Disc Lorde blatantly said he was trying to move the lynch off of Pizzaguy. Towards the end of the day, when nothing could be done about it...

[Visor]

I was on Disc Lorde's case before it was cool.

I'm not sure if it is really a mafia post or just a really really strange townie one. Still, some pressure is good.

[Fortuna]

I've been mistrustful of Disc Lorde since day one. Seeing some analysis to support my gut, I'll throw my vote there.

[ThePhantom]

Hmm, I not really feeling that either of the two up for the lynch are wolves. But then again, I'm just going on feelings, and without logic, there not much point going after someone else. So disc lord.

[Murska]

I am somewhat suspicious of Aric Kale, for claiming to be a Halfling (whatever that is) and specifying that he has no further name, unlike our good Hobbits.

[Aric Kale]

I reexamined my role PM.
I'm Farmer Maggot.

[Luizeu]

Wow, now I have mixed feelings about this trend. I see two possible situations:

Situation 1: Disc Lorde is Wolf

Wolves will mix in with the villagers and first vote for Disc Lorde now (when there's a lot of time to change the vote so they could claim that they voted for the wolf when the bandwagon started. But after some time they will convince themselves that there's a bigger threat and move to another person (a villager).

Situation 2: Disc Lorde is not Wolf

Glad that the villagers are doing the job for them they won't change their vote and lynch him.


I won't cast my vote right now. But I still think Lord and Random are the ones I find the most suspicious.

[Murska]

Okay, that was a quick clarification, though I'm still not sure of you.

Well then. I find Penguinator suspicious.

I don't find Disc Lorde or Rain Dragon very suspicious.

[Visor]

Funnily enough, I don't actually think Disc Lorde does that as mafia in the situation they're in.

It is such a shame that the mafia will likely jump on it though, and make my job a little easier in finding you. I'll be back later to look at the DL voters.

[Penguinator]

Okay, that was a quick clarification, though I'm still not sure of you.

Well then. I find Penguinator suspicious.

I don't find Disc Lorde or Rain Dragon very suspicious.

Murska, that's terrible logic and you know it. I gave reasoning as to why they're suspicious. Pulling a "No, you" is extremely childish.

Also, if aric_kale providing a name is all it takes to get you off of him, I gave my name the first day.

[Murska]

Ah, so you did.

Well, next up would be ThePhantom and Count Dingdong.

[Visor]

Fixed that for you.

Also, that whole post reeks of wolfishness to me. Sure, wolves can lynch their own, but it seems rather strange that they would do it twice in a row, on the first two days. Sure, it's possible, but it isn't what I'd call "a significant possibility." And if he is a wolf, we'll have to watch out for this strategy in the future.

Asking masons to claim is also suspicious. They have no good reason to come out, especially with one of them dead. They'd just become targets.

So, Disc Lorde, justify yourself.

This is a scum post. Its the typical jump on the bandwagon post with the added scum twist - the analysis once it has already been done. It is the look at me, I good townie post. And the justify yourself is the icing on the cake.

Zweisteine

Justify yourself.

- - - Updated - - -

I've been mistrustful of Disc Lorde since day one. Seeing some analysis to support my gut, I'll throw my vote there.

Hmm, I not really feeling that either of the two up for the lynch are wolves. But then again, I'm just going on feelings, and without logic, there not much point going after someone else. So disc lord.

Not fans of either of these. Phantom most of all.

They both reek of easy votes to lay on and not show up again with.

[Fortuna]

Not fans of either of these. Phantom most of all.

They both reek of easy votes to lay on and not show up again with.

That's fair, since to some extent that's what it is - frankly, Toy Story has me kind of demoralized so far as WW games go, but I'm unwilling to just drop out of games that I've committed to playing. Still, I'm here, and willing to answer questions and accept suggestions.

[Cuthalion]

uhhhhh autolynches will happen at the end of the day i guess

oopsiedaisy

[Luizeu]

Assuming Visor forgot to strike the earlier vote on Disc_Lorde, this is the tally so far.

Disc_Lorde (6 Votes) - Sprig, Lex-Kat, Zweisteine, Duk999, , Random_person, ThePhantom
Rain Dragon (2 Votes) - Eonas, Penguinator
Zweisteine (1 Vote) - Visor

[Zweisteine]

This is a scum post. Its the typical jump on the bandwagon post with the added scum twist - the analysis once it has already been done. It is the look at me, I good townie post. And the justify yourself is the icing on the cake.

Zweisteine

Justify yourself.

Sure.

First, why is restating an analysis wolfish of me? I am the type of person who sometimes likes to justify their actions, and I didn't want to be seen as jumping on blindly. I suppose I could have said I agreed with the previous analysis, but that didn't occur to me at the time.

And... Are you saying that I could have just said "I agree with everyone else, Disc Lorde looks bad," and been less suspicious?

I asked for justification because (1) it's quicker to type and (2) sounds cooler than "give me a reason not to vote for you, and I won't."

I do seem to have an unfortunate habit of trying too hard to be town, which I'm working on, but I'm far from perfect in that regard. This is still only my second multi-day game.

And in the process of writing this, I realized that what Disc said is just the sort of suspicious thing I might say. Hmm... Maybe I should change my vote... But that same inexperience keeps me from less obvious scum-tells.

[Murska]

I'm also pointing at Phantom.

People, don't lynch Disc Lorde, ok?