Bragging to Ya'all internet strangers (someone other than my mom)

[darkrose50]

Ya'all internet strangers, and I am here to do some braggin'.

It would seem that I am either good or lucky with the stock market. If the S&P 500 would have returned X between 2003 and now, then I am at 2.04 X. It would seem that I somehow managed to more than double my return compared to the S&P 500.

This is mostly impressive as I understand that 80% of mutual fund managers do not beat the S&P 500. Basically two bets on political stuff. I watch a lot of political stuff news. I must have sat on a horseshoe at some point.

I invested in FXMEX (medical stuff) under the last president, and FSDAX (~aerospace) under this president. I do not really remember what my 401k was in before 2003 (S&P 500 I think), or before 2009 (some dividend fund I think).

[Scarlet Knight]

Great! Now sell before the dip....

[Sermil]

If the S&P 500 would have returned X between 2003 and now, then I am at 2.04 X.

Hopefully the S&P 500 is positive over that time period, else that's not very impressive

[snowblizz]

Ya'all internet strangers, and I am here to do some braggin'.

It would seem that I am either good or lucky with the stock market. If the S&P 500 would have returned X between 2003 and now, then I am at 2.04 X. It would seem that I somehow managed to more than double my return compared to the S&P 500.

This is mostly impressive as I understand that 80% of mutual fund managers do not beat the S&P 500. Basically two bets on political stuff. I watch a lot of political stuff news. I must have sat on a horseshoe at some point.

I invested in FXMEX (medical stuff) under the last president, and FSDAX (~aerospace) under this president. I do not really remember what my 401k was in before 2003, or before 2009 (some dividend fund I think).

Basically, lucky. It's a bit more complicated than you put it. It's hard to beat index because it's the aggregate of all lucky and unlucky choices, and theoretically no one should have an information advantage. That is almost the only way you can beat the market long term. The fun part is that operating with such an information advantage is usually a crime.

If one is only investing in 1 company or one sector even then effectively you are taking a greater risk which should in economic terms reflect in a greater reward. And also a greater loss if you make a bad choice. The S&P again aggregates more companies and more sectors evening out the odds. Which means from one perspective it's not hard at all to beat index. All you have to do is always pick the right choices.

Mutual fund managers also usually operate under certain strictures and guidelines they must follow which means they aren't as free to invest as an individual can be. As an example based on real life a mutual fund may be forced to sell of a profitable stock soaring because it is gaining too much relative weigth of their portfolio, the economic choice would be to continue to hold it if you think it will still perform, not to sell because a single stock can't be more than 10% of your worth. Or they must keep portions of money in other assets like safe bonds. So while you can take a bet on a company or sector mutual funds usually operate on quite strict mandates. Mutual funds must minimize or at least manage risk in an uncertain market. That said most mutual fund managers are snakeoil salesmen IMO.


I know very well the feeling of being a genious investor compared to the market. Just keep in mind money you don't have in your wallet isn't real money and that those who think they managed to figure out the market better than everyone else tend to have rude awakenings. Sometimes dams burst halting the mining operation causing the minign company to collapse due to fines, cleanup and no production. In such cases it's nicer to have 5% of ones assests lost rather than 50%.

[Wizard_Lizard]

Am I the only one woth no idea what this means?

[Brother Oni]

Am I the only one woth no idea what this means?

If you're of working age, then I highly advise learning the basics since it will be vital if you want to retire at a sensible age with a decent standard of living.

[snowblizz]

If you're of working age, then I highly advise learning the basics since it will be vital if you want to retire at a sensible age with a decent standard of living.

*Advice not necessarily applicable to anyone living outside the Barbarian States of America.



E.g. in the Swedish pension system the people who did not make an active choice of how their compulsary state pensionplan is to be invested and instead just let the default 7th AP fund manage it has generally performed better. In this instances, ignorance truly has been bliss. And letting the government manage your money was the better option. (See what I said about snakeoil salesmen in earlier post)



Though I would agree there's a lot of merit in actually knowing some of the things said in this thread. All knowledge is usually good. And much of it impacts our daily lives in ways we seldom reflect on.

[darkrose50]

I told my mom yesterday and I just confused her. She basically told me not to tell anyone.

I am good and lucky with money overall (buying and selling things, trading things). I go to GenCon for fun every year, and make money off of going. I am not good enough with investing or money to live off this skill (without an inheritance, and if I had one I would likely be more conservative with it). Random stuff is always messing with everything. Luck is definitely a part of it. An opportunity needs to be there (luck), you need to see it as an opportunity (luck), you need to know how to act on the opportunity (luck), you need to have some money in order to act upon the event (luck), you then need to act upon the event (luck), and hope that all goes well (luck). Basically a lot of it is determined by how you were raised, what you study, and overall what you were exposed to. A lot of really rich investors and inventors read A LOT. I don't really read magazines and newspapers. I seem to be lucky at investing in politics. I had a strong feeling about investing in FSDAX . . . let's see if I was correct come the next president.

I have Asperger's Syndrome and sometimes see patterns and some of those patterns can be profitable. I suppose I could have been a genius when I was a kid [130+ IQ], but the last IQ test as an adult I took was lower [less than 130 IQ].

FXMEX 2009 32.63% S&P 500 23.45 Difference 09.18%
FXMEX 2010 21.71% S&P 500 12.78 Difference 08.93%
FXMEX 2011 -03.42% S&P 500 0.00% Difference -03.42%
FXMEX 2012 15.62% S&P 500 13.41 Difference 02.21%
FXMEX 2013 41.30% S&P 500 29.60 Difference 11.7%
FXMEX 2014 26.70% S&P 500 11.39 Difference 15.31%
FXMEX 2015 07.11% S&P 500 -0.74 Difference 07.84%
FXMEX 2016 08.68% S&P 500 09.54 Difference -0.86%
FXMEX Average 18.79% S&P 500 Average 12.43% Difference 6.36%

FSDAX 2017 34.21% S&P 500 19.42% Difference 14.79%
FSDAX 2018 -06.74% S&P 500 -06.24% Difference -0.50%
FSDAX 2019 17.2%

Total average 2009-2018 Mutual Fund average 17.78% S&P 500 average 11.26% Difference 06.52%

So I may be a space wizard, but likely I just have just one star on my space wizard hat.

[snowblizz]

The worst part is that many people end up paying for a mutual funds maanger to manage their money who then just buys into the index. Paying for active management and only getting passive management is about the worst you can do, and highly profitable for the mutual funds.


Which reminds me of another reason mutual fund managers perform worse than index. They take their salaries out of your returns. It doesn't sound a lot when they say you pay 0.1% off the top in commission but over 30-40 years it adds up to a significant sum of the whole. I've seen numbers up to 40% or more lost to management fees.


In the end the basics are simple: buy low, sell high.

Trying to answer the question of what is low and what is high occupies a lot of people in business schools and on wall street.


Hunches can be good. I've doubled my equity since 2009. The mining company thing din't pan out. Other stuff has. It helps if you have an understanding of what you are investing in. Think it was Warren Buffet who said he only invested in stuff he understood.

[darkrose50]

Great! Now sell before the dip....

I have been thinking about diversifying before the market turns down. We have been on a crazy long bull market. The talking heads on TV seem to think there should be a crash or correction or bear market sometime in the next two years. But you probably should not take your money out waiting for one as you could loose out on some big upwards days.

I have been looking into how to set up for a crash or bear market. One source (The Motley Fool) says to keep 10% of your portfolio in cash for use during a correction. I think that this is a solid plan. 10% in cash 90% in other stuff.

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I am somewhat tempted to do more than that, and lie in wait. Then again men always screw themselves over by trying to time the market (as opposed to women who do better overall on some sort of average by not trying to time the market). So the vast majority of time for the vast majority of folks doing nothing is the correct answer.

I don't know perhaps 10% in cash, and 40% in bonds sounds prudent. I think I will go to 10% cash when dividends hit, and then ease my way to 40% bonds over 8 quarters (5% per quarter).

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Infrastructure will get some love sooner or later. If the one side takes control, and pushes for infrastructure, then it would be a good investment. I have been waiting for infrastructure to be set up as an investment.

[Wizard_Lizard]

If you're of working age, then I highly advise learning the basics since it will be vital if you want to retire at a sensible age with a decent standard of living.

Good thing that I'm not yet then.

[Mariele]

Great! Now sell before the dip....

Hehehe.

I'm a fan of index funds, not individual stock trading, so bully for you! Honestly, if at all possible, I'd sell now, keep my portfolio very modest and conservative until the (quite soon I'm guessing) crash, then go a bit more stock heavy in my portfolio. Then you've got a nice little stash of cash and a nice, safe portfolio that won't be ravaged by a crashing market that you can get ahead of other people on.

Buy when everyone else is selling, sell when everyone else is buying, and all. :P

[Willie the Duck]

Ya'all internet strangers, and I am here to do some braggin'.

May I ask your motivation? I noticed that you also had the 'if you want to be a millionaire, marry a teacher' thread a while back that was 'financial aspirational bragging' (or something like that).
Personally, I've found myself to have ended up in the situation where I am in a lot better place, financially*, than I ever would have predicted I would be at my age. I've noticed that there's no good place to talk about it, since you're either bragging to people where this is not notable, or to your friends who haven't had this success and thus it is extremely rude. Is this somewhat similar to your reason for these threads?
*rough outline of the story: 15 years ago I was taking a leave of absence from grad school because I could not keep my alcoholism under control. Fast forward to now, and I am a director of a department and, while not a 1%-er, am in the same ballpark.

[darkrose50]

May I ask your motivation? I noticed that you also had the 'if you want to be a millionaire, marry a teacher' thread a while back that was 'financial aspirational bragging' (or something like that).
Personally, I've found myself to have ended up in the situation where I am in a lot better place, financially*, than I ever would have predicted I would be at my age. I've noticed that there's no good place to talk about it, since you're either bragging to people where this is not notable, or to your friends who haven't had this success and thus it is extremely rude. Is this somewhat similar to your reason for these threads?
*rough outline of the story: 15 years ago I was taking a leave of absence from grad school because I could not keep my alcoholism under control. Fast forward to now, and I am a director of a department and, while not a 1%-er, am in the same ballpark.

The teacher thing was a case of not fully understanding the phenomenon, but it being a thing. I think I better understand it now. Also it was a slow work day, and I needed to do something. Seriously I can sit here all-day and only get a few calls. Some days there is nothing to do. It was also eye-opening to better understand the repercussions on marrying a teacher. As long as she retires from teaching, we should be okay. I was laid off once, and fear not having enough money.

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It was a slow day at work, I did a lot or research into one of my 401k's, and I have a one-track mind.

I was a little fearful that my credit card depositing money into my 401k was a major contributing factor (it was not). I was a little disappointed in my medical pick thinking that it was sub-standard, but it turned out to be the better choice! In all I was a bit taken back by the results. I was excited. I wanted to tell folks, "hey I did this cool thing, and I am proud of it", but really could not.

I REALLY like managing resources. One of my hobbies is buying and selling things. Money is a resource. I am good with money. My friends and family for the most part are not.

Basically I find money and politics interesting and it is rude to talk about money and politics. It is annoying. I never really get to talk about my hobbies with anyone, and it kinda sucks.

My friend who works with me has an apartment that is renovating, and he is loosing his place, and cannot afford another. How do I say, "hey I just figured out that I tend beat the S&P 500 by ~7% per year!"

My folks would always tell me that no one makes money in the stock market, that it is gambling, there are always losers, and basically I should stay far away from that nonsense. So me talking about how I make (relative) gobbs of money maybe is something that makes them feel bad.

My sister is likely a genius, excels at math, but is fundamentally financially incompetent. For much of my life she would make more than me, and is always in trouble with money. I would bail her out early and often. She still owes me $11,000. But, I would bail her out again if she needed it. I am suspecting that she might live with me when we are old, as she will be broke.

My other sister loves spending money. She is wicked smart too. Her husband keeps starting businesses and they do well most of the time. They do not believe in investing. I am not that sure if they save much money.

I can earn a 40% return within 2-years buying and selling Kickstarter games on eBay. This is going to Disneyworld a few times a year money (one year I sold $40,000 of stuff on eBay, not profit, but total), but I cannot really talk about that.

I work in a department where it seems that no one ever has money. The last time I talked with a coworker who was into investing (he used to be a banker) he basically dismissed my earlier investing claims as if I did some math wrong or did not understand the concept.

How could I bring up all the ways I earn money, and talk about one of my favorite hobbies? I really cannot most of the time.

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Oh I have my problems. I have Asperger's Syndrome, and Dyslexia. I went to get my masters degree in education, got a 4.0 GPA, but could not pass student teaching. It was a nightmare.

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Imagine identifying a problem and explaining it to your bosses, be ignored, see the issue blow up in a flaming dumpster fire, and have to do it over and over again. Folks don't take me seriously and/or I don't know how to explain that something bad is about to occur with this issue or that policy. It really sucks.