Did Azure city ever have a chance

[factotum]

Hinjo could have reminded them what their role in this battle was supposed to be. But by that time, he seemed to have forgotten about the battle plan, too.

I think his plan was to intercept Xykon before he ever got near the throne room. Since Xykon bypassed that plan by flying there directly, he had to change things around; I guess he believed that the Order wouldn't have time to reach the throne room quickly enough to make a difference. He was probably right on that front, given how quickly Xykon blew through the paladins and got onto the Ghost Martyrs.

(Interesting to note that Hinjo and Durkon are discussing the Xykon situation in #449, and at no point does Hinjo say "You need to get to the throne room, now!"--this is why I believe what I said above is the way Hinjo thought).

[Anarion]

No. Strategically, the proper response is to hit the weakness when it's revealed. You don't wait on it to give the enemy a chance to repair or respond to it.

Just because the other guys didn't redeploy doesn't mean you should have given them the chance to.

You are telling us, categorically, that it is always the correct decision to commit all forces to a weakness as soon as it's revealed? Have you never heard of baiting or reserves? Or over commitment for that matter? Unless you have perfect intelligence, immediate commitment of all forces to the first enemy weakness revealed is a tried and true way to lose a battle.

Chess is a bad example because you can't actually pile everything you have on the first weakness. Some of your pieces might not be active yet, and couldn't get there if they were. Plus, chess starts out evenly. You have the same number of pieces as your opponent. The hobgoblins had a 3 to 1 advantage. The Azurite general called it an even fight, but only because of the fortifications, and the fortifications were dealt major damage right away.

60 foot gaps in a wall are a bad example because you can't actually pile everything you have on the first weakness...

That charge Redcloak eventually led through the breach. Are you honestly going to try and tell me they could have held that charge back if he'd done it right after the breach was created? If so, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

It's not about whether we agree that they could or could not have held the wall, it's about whether Redcloak knew that. And he did not. I don't either. I cannot state with certainty whether the wall could have been held if Roy replaced one if the giant soldiers and the entirety if Azure City high level characters were able to concentrate their power in that location.

[The Pilgrim]

I think his plan was to intercept Xykon before he ever got near the throne room. Since Xykon bypassed that plan by flying there directly, he had to change things around; I guess he believed that the Order wouldn't have time to reach the throne room quickly enough to make a difference. He was probably right on that front, given how quickly Xykon blew through the paladins and got onto the Ghost Martyrs.

(Interesting to note that Hinjo and Durkon are discussing the Xykon situation in #449, and at no point does Hinjo say "You need to get to the throne room, now!"--this is why I believe what I said above is the way Hinjo thought).

Hinjo probably thought that way, but that doesn't makes his choice valid. The Order probably couln't have made it to the Throne Room before the paladins got slaughtered. But they would have certainly made it there before Redcloak did. Xykon was already in trouble dealing with the Ghost Martyrs, so guess what would had happened if the next thing coming through the Door had been the remmants of the Order, instead of Redcloak.

[Keltest]

Hinjo probably thought that way, but that doesn't makes his choice valid. The Order probably couln't have made it to the Throne Room before the paladins got slaughtered. But they would have certainly made it there before Redcloak did. Xykon was already in trouble dealing with the Ghost Martyrs, so guess what would had happened if the next thing coming through the Door had been the remmants of the Order, instead of Redcloak.

they would have marveled at how fine the skeleton powder was on the ground, then laughed at redcloak as he came in. However, Hinjo could not possibly have forseen Xykon taking out the paladins the way he did, and they would easily be more powerful than the Order, PC plot shield or not.

[Anarion]

they would have marveled at how fine the skeleton powder was on the ground, then laughed at redcloak as he came in. However, Hinjo could not possibly have forseen Xykon taking out the paladins the way he did, and they would easily be more powerful than the Order, PC plot shield or not.

While Hinjo certainly didn't foresee a super bouncy ball with a symbol of insanity, he absolutely did foresee that some or even all the paladins would die. He says so in 449.

[Keltest]

While Hinjo certainly didn't foresee a super bouncy ball with a symbol of insanity, he absolutely did foresee that some or even all the paladins would die. He says so in 449.

which is exactly why he didn't send the order there too. They don't have the ghost Martyr thing going for them, so getting killed in a suicidal fight would not have helped anyone.

[orrion]

You are telling us, categorically, that it is always the correct decision to commit all forces to a weakness as soon as it's revealed? Have you never heard of baiting or reserves? Or over commitment for that matter? Unless you have perfect intelligence, immediate commitment of all forces to the first enemy weakness revealed is a tried and true way to lose a battle.

No, I'm not saying it categorically. I'm saying for this instance. Hitting the weakness was the correct way to go. Baiting doesn't apply to a weakness that Redcloak created himself by blowing holes in the wall. Come on. It's also a pretty safe bet that they had at least some basic intelligence on Azure City's forces since Azure City was able to glean basic information on their own - probably more so, since Azure City had very little warning and Team Evil's army had been marching for awhile. So even if they had "reserves," Redcloak should have had a pretty good idea what those reserves were.

60 foot gaps in a wall are a bad example because you can't actually pile everything you have on the first weakness...

You mean except for the part where Redcloak eventually did just that, right?

It's not about whether we agree that they could or could not have held the wall, it's about whether Redcloak knew that. And he did not. I don't either. I cannot state with certainty whether the wall could have been held if Roy replaced one if the giant soldiers and the entirety if Azure City high level characters were able to concentrate their power in that location.

Based on what Redcloak knew, hitting the breach hard was still the best strategy.

It's not like Redcloak was being sound in other parts of the fight. He was assaulting the wall when they were losing a lot of troops on it. The hobgoblin general pointed this out twice, I think. Redcloak was just horrible, strategically, the entire fight, except for when he used the titanium elementals to start it off. He had different goals, yes, but that doesn't mean it wasn't horrible.

[Anarion]

You mean except for the part where Redcloak eventually did just that, right?

After the forces had been exhausted and resources had been expended elsewhere. If Redcloak had sent the entire army at the breach right away, they would have been milling about outside the walks while the front lines were held down by a giant Hinjo and Roy and V's lightning bolts would have been killing hundreds of goblins with each shot.

They'd probably have still won, and maybe there are factors I'm not considering, but accusing Redcloak of bring a bad tactician because he didn't immediately pull his forces to charge the breach is wrong.

[factotum]

Redcloak was just horrible, strategically, the entire fight, except for when he used the titanium elementals to start it off. He had different goals, yes, but that doesn't mean it wasn't horrible.

But as I said above, the major reason for that was that he not-so-secretly wanted a lot of the hated hobgoblins to die taking the city, and it was only after one saved his life that he started taking the battle seriously. In other words, Redcloak acting like an idiot wasn't because he's a bad commander, it's because he's a racist...there's a difference.

[Anarion]

But as I said above, the major reason for that was that he not-so-secretly wanted a lot of the hated hobgoblins to die taking the city, and it was only after one saved his life that he started taking the battle seriously. In other words, Redcloak acting like an idiot wasn't because he's a bad commander, it's because he's a racist...there's a difference.

Also, quite honestly, that's a sign of his skill at strategy. He was so confident he could take the city that he was willing to use a battle plan that would involve a lot of possibly unnecessary casualties.

[David Argall]

Apparently we're only making arguments based on things explicitly proven true, which is funny because you've been wildly speculating this entire-

I have speculated on why Hinjo made his mistake. The fact he didn't adequately reinforce the breach is simple fact.

No, I don't care anymore. That Hinjo is just the worst, isn't he?

Not at all. He made a mistake, a bad one, but still only a single mistake. Lots of generals have done worse. But that still does not allow use to ignore that mistake, which may have lost the city.

Lack of evidence is not evidence of lack?

But here we have the evidence of lack, in the form of too few troops to stop those hobgoblins, which shown in the comic. And stopping a charge does not require many troops when the charge must go thru a narrow gap. The defenders had the manpower, but it was not in the right place. Since it was Hinjo's job to put them in the right place, he gets the blame.

1. Summon celestial aid
2. Sent to their Elven allies for aid (equipment and magic items, even if not soldiers)
3. Pulled in any soldiers in the field.
4. Had time to convince the nobles that they were being dumb
5. Station extra guards to prevent ninja infiltration
6. Set fire traps, dig trenches, prepare illusions, and any other static defenses.

Now I doubt several of these tactics [The willingness of the elves to seriously help is quite doubtful, and the gods are not eager to get involved in mortal affairs for example], But it seems highly unlikely that Azure City had a mere 10,000 man army if the hobgoblins could raise 30,000 [even if that was augmented by death threats]. It would be amazing if they didn't have, or could raise, a much larger army if given much warning. So it does seem like a delay would have been highly useful in gathering a larger army.

Something I had been wondering about that whole battle was why they did not try putting a mark of Justice thingy on the crazy undead loving chick they were releasing from jail to fight against an army of hobgoblins lead by a lich.

As has been pointed out the Mark of Justice has its flaws. One is that the more you forbid, the more chance of it being set off at the wrong time. Here we see how much more useful Belkar was when not under the Mark. And with most of the risks, if they had suspected there was a risk, they would have never made the offer in the first place. In hindsight, yes, but at the time.... The spell could easily be more harm than help.

Everything is Hinjo's fault.

When you are the commander, that is not far wrong.

I'm sure Roy knew that the elf Wizard was the most powerful asset of the Order. Spreading to slay the Titanium Elementals, while Xykon was not still around, was probably Ok. But while the rest of the Order rallied back at Hinjo after defeating their targets, V decided to stay in the breach and forget about Xykon. And Roy made no effort at all to call her back.

So, when Haley called off the three-xykons-bluff, and the real one was located flying over the walls, the Order had their most valuable asset killing low level mooks in some other plce. Instead of being in the right place to accomplish the one single mission Hinjo had given the Order: Slay Xykon.

This battle was really meant to be The Order vs Team Evil.

Not precisely. The order was deemed about the only [non-secret] force that could deal with X. So hunting him down and killing him was high priority. But their orders amounted to make yourselves useful and were not limited to chasing after X.
In particular, V staying at the breach was sensible. She devised a strategy that for awhile seemed to easily defend the greatest weaknesses in the defense. And afterwards his spells seem to have been vital in holding the breach. Then we have that a lot of her spells seem to have been mook killers. A lightning bold would barely annoy X, but kills all sorts of minions. He just wasn't that effective vs X even if they had managed to confront the lich. So long before that battle started, V was intending to attack other opponents than X.

Nor was it that clear she was needed except to reach X. Roy had single-handedly beat X before. OK, a fluke, but now he has this +5 sword that was supposed to be nasty vs undead, and he had gained a level or three. He wasn't being that insane trying to take him on. So V could handle other vital missions and not be fooling around.

[NihhusHuotAliro]

For Hinjo, the battle was a couple of minutes or hours. FOr us, it was almost a year. OF course we could react and respond better.

[hamishspence]

There's also the fact that there were constant attacks on the walls.

I could see that being the reason why there's very few troops near the breach here:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0446.html

they've all been drained, a little at a time, to keep the walls manned.

[Everyl]

Personally, I blame the fall of the breach on bad morale. In 452, it's hard to tell exactly how many soldiers deserted, but panel 8 makes it look like at least two-thirds are abandoning their posts. If they'd had their full numbers, they might have been able to hold the breach until reinforcements (whether that means troops or higher-level characters) showed up. Redcloak's mammoth could probably have broken the lines regardless, but if enough soldiers had held the line to buy time for PCs to get there, it would have forced him into a showdown without giving him a chance to personally invade the palace first (and the spells he used could have easily turned the cleric battle).

Also, I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned the ninja infiltration of the palace yet. Perhaps, if Kubota wasn't busy spending all of his resources on murdering Hinjo, there might have been some high-level ninjas available to put their high Spot checks to Azure City's service by preventing the secondary defenses from falling instantly. The first breach wouldn't have been a battle-ending disadvantage if the palace keep had held.

[Rogar Demonblud]

After the forces had been exhausted and resources had been expended elsewhere. If Redcloak had sent the entire army at the breach right away, they would have been milling about outside the walks while the front lines were held down by a giant Hinjo and Roy and V's lightning bolts would have been killing hundreds of goblins with each shot.

They'd probably have still won, and maybe there are factors I'm not considering, but accusing Redcloak of bring a bad tactician because he didn't immediately pull his forces to charge the breach is wrong.

Interesting mathematical question--how many hobgoblins would fit into the blast radius of a fireball cast by a ~13th level Invoker?

[Keltest]

Interesting mathematical question--how many hobgoblins would fit into the blast radius of a fireball cast by a ~13th level Invoker?

Depends. Are they allowed to stand on each other's shoulders? and are they considered "in" if theyre only partially encompassed?

[zimmerwald1915]

Interesting mathematical question--how many hobgoblins would fit into the blast radius of a fireball cast by a ~13th level Invoker?

About as many archons as can dance on the head of a flumph.

[Rodin]

I've seen a few people say that the Order could have stuck together and beaten Xykon, and ergo won the battle. I rather disagree with that.

Yes, they could have beaten Xykon. How well they would have fared is anyone's guess, but it still seems likely that they would have taken a fair beating in the process.

However, that army is still out there. Plus, it would be much bigger than it was, because the Order wasn't manning the outer defenses. Let's look at the battle on the walls - they lost, and the Order was there for that. On a battlefield the size of the city, even a high-level group of adventurers will only have a local effect.

Xykon also pretty much didn't affect the course of the battle for the city outside of killing Roy. The Sapphire Guard never left the throne room, the dragon did for Saangwaan and its head killed the Death Knight.

The question I have is: Was the Sapphire Guard neccessary in the throne room? There was evidently a host of spirits already there to assist Soon, and the regular spirits don't seem to bother him that much due to the level difference. If the rest of the Sapphire Guard had been dispersed along the walls or used as a strategic reserve (to say, plug the breach), would that have made a difference?

[factotum]

If the rest of the Sapphire Guard had been dispersed along the walls or used as a strategic reserve (to say, plug the breach), would that have made a difference?

That's actually an interesting question. It seems unlikely that a paladin of the Guard has to die in the throne room to join the ranks of the Ghost-Martyrs, so having them out on the walls would have worked almost as well as having them in the throne room, provided Hinjo made the assumption that the external battle was already lost by the time Xykon got in there. Maybe the fact he left the Guard there means he was anticipating the possibility of Xykon bypassing the defences in the way he did? If so, that would actually make him a pretty darned good commander!

[MagicalMeat]

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that Hinjo sent them there specifically so that hey would fight Xykon, then die, then fight Xykon some more. If the Sapphire Guard was on the wall, less of them would have died, and thus less of them would fight Xykon. Basically, for each Paladin sent into the Throne Room, two Paladins would fight Xykon. Am I making sense?

[Anarion]

I've seen a few people say that the Order could have stuck together and beaten Xykon, and ergo won the battle. I rather disagree with that.

Yes, they could have beaten Xykon. How well they would have fared is anyone's guess, but it still seems likely that they would have taken a fair beating in the process.

However, that army is still out there. Plus, it would be much bigger than it was, because the Order wasn't manning the outer defenses. Let's look at the battle on the walls - they lost, and the Order was there for that. On a battlefield the size of the city, even a high-level group of adventurers will only have a local effect.

Xykon also pretty much didn't affect the course of the battle for the city outside of killing Roy. The Sapphire Guard never left the throne room, the dragon did for Saangwaan and its head killed the Death Knight.

The question I have is: Was the Sapphire Guard neccessary in the throne room? There was evidently a host of spirits already there to assist Soon, and the regular spirits don't seem to bother him that much due to the level difference. If the rest of the Sapphire Guard had been dispersed along the walls or used as a strategic reserve (to say, plug the breach), would that have made a difference?

The fact that Xykon did not affect the battle was a point in the good guys favor. He knows cloudkill, among other things, so if he wanted, he was perfectly capable of taking that breach in the wall all by himself.

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that Hinjo sent them there specifically so that hey would fight Xykon, then die, then fight Xykon some more. If the Sapphire Guard was on the wall, less of them would have died, and thus less of them would fight Xykon. Basically, for each Paladin sent into the Throne Room, two Paladins would fight Xykon. Am I making sense?

I did get the sense from Hinjo's comment "did you wonder why only paladins were in that room" that maybe the magic that summons Soon only works if the defenders are all paladins, or something of that nature.

[factotum]

I did get the sense from Hinjo's comment "did you wonder why only paladins were in that room" that maybe the magic that summons Soon only works if the defenders are all paladins, or something of that nature.

He told Durkon the exact reason why only paladins were in the room--he said they were there as reinforcements. There is no "magic" per se involved here; the only power that allowed the paladins to come back as the Ghost-Martyrs was their oath to protect the Gate, as Soon said to Mike when he spoke to her as she lay dying. (This is what the whole "The honour of a paladin is unbreakable, even by death itself" thing comes down to).

[The Pilgrim]

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that Hinjo sent them there specifically so that hey would fight Xykon, then die, then fight Xykon some more. If the Sapphire Guard was on the wall, less of them would have died, and thus less of them would fight Xykon. Basically, for each Paladin sent into the Throne Room, two Paladins would fight Xykon. Am I making sense?

Yep.

In #449, Durkon notices that Xykon is in the Throne Room, and suggest they all should rush there, as the Paladins would be too weak to hold Xykon. Hinjo agrees that the Paladins won't stop Xykon, and we are revealed the truth about the defense of the Gate: Soon is there, and all the dead paladins would raise as Ghost Spirits to reinforce him. Hinjo expected that Soon and the Martyrs would be enough to slain Xykon. And he was right. Forward to #459, when Redcloak gets into the room, we see Xykon overpowered by the Ghosts.

Back in #447, Redcloak gets pissed as Xykon is getting into the Throne Room solo, instead of waiting for the army. Redcloak was right, getting into the Throne Room alone was a mistake that almost got Xykon - and Redcloak - killed.

The Azurites could have exploited that mistake if Hinjo had ordered the Order to rush into the Throne Room when Durkon suggested it, in #449. At that point, the Paladins were already killed, so it was a matter of making it there before Redcloak did.

Instead of that, they made a rush to the breach, which was totally unsucessful and innefective. They couldn't even hold Redcloak at bay, he got into the court yard without facing any opposition. Hinjo and the remnants of the Order got pinned by the mooks and failed to affect the battle at the Throne Room in any way.

If they had rushed to the Throne Room in #449, when Redcloak hadn't still ordered the Charge on the Breach, they would have made it to the throne room in time to help Soon kill Xykon, then slay Redcloak as he entered the room, and stopping Miko from blowing the Gate (whose explosion killed a lot of azurite soldiers, and left the rest shaken, scattered, and routed).

Sure, they would still have a bajillion hobbos roaming around the City. But, with the enemy army leaderless, without the Lich, and with no one powerful enough to be a threat for a party of high-level heroes, the azurites would have managed to get the city rid of goblinoids in a few days.

[NihhusHuotAliro]

Yep.

....

Ah, so if Halley had rolled natural twenties on her arrows, and if they'd hit Redcloack...

[The Pilgrim]

Ah, so if Halley had rolled natural twenties on her arrows, and if they'd hit Redcloack...

If they had rushed to the Throne Room in #449, they wouldn't have needed to leave anything to chance.

Anyway, OP asked if the Azurites ever had a chance. Reply is, yes, they did. They were one smart tactical move from actually winning. And not an one too difficult to figure out.

[Rodin]

I guess I just tend to side with O-Chul in the argument "The Order vs. 20,000 Hobgoblins = Dead Order", particularly since by that point both V and Durkon were out of spells, Roy was dead, and Belkar was incapable of fighting within the city walls. That leaves the actual fighting to Durkon (meleeing without spells), Haley (having to try and fight a ranged battle against hundreds of opponents at once) and Elan (woeful at direct combat).

The Azurite army was already starting to break by that point, and if the Order had gone to the keep Hinjo would be dead (no Durkon to save him) and there would be a Huecuva running riot among the troops as well as everything else.

They might have saved the world by taking out Xykon and Redcloak, but Azure City was most definitely toast.

[SavageWombat]

Interesting mathematical question--how many hobgoblins would fit into the blast radius of a fireball cast by a ~13th level Invoker?

44. I counted. Twice.

[David Argall]

There's also the fact that there were constant attacks on the walls.

I could see that being the reason why there's very few troops near the breach here:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0446.html

they've all been drained, a little at a time, to keep the walls manned.

But this still gets back to Hinjo not sending reserves he had to the breach.
Right, there are few troops near the breach. But there are lots of troops behind the rest of the wall. No matter what reason we give for the shortage of troops, we have the fact that the breach was the most threatened point, and thus where there should be troops instead of empty space.
This is one reason I speculate about Hinjo being a new and unready commander. It is easy to see a wall section commander not wanting to release his reserves even tho they are needed more elsewhere because he does need or may need them. But a wall commander must think of the whole wall, and move reserves from the mildly threatened sector to the seriously threatened. So we can see Hinjo still thinking as a sub-commander when he has been elevated to top command, and the breach falling as a result.

If they had rushed to the Throne Room in #449, when Redcloak hadn't still ordered the Charge on the Breach, they would have made it to the throne room in time to help Soon kill Xykon, then slay Redcloak as he entered the room,

Now a serious tactical problem is that Redcloak would not have entered the room. When X is killed, his soul goes directly to his hidey-hole, where he can immediately communicate with Redcloak. So if X is killed, Redcloak knows not to enter and he sets up camp until X regenerates in a few days.

and stopping Miko from blowing the Gate (whose explosion killed a lot of azurite soldiers, and left the rest shaken, scattered, and routed).

They were shaken, scattered, and routed before Miko did her thing. In fact, destroying the gate may have been tactically quite useful. We look at 463 and we see the area around the castle was almost entirely orange. There were not enough defenders still alive to spit at. So Miko killed a very large number of hobgoblins. and almost no Azure City troops.

Sure, they would still have a bajillion hobbos roaming around the City. But, with the enemy army leaderless, without the Lich, and with no one powerful enough to be a threat for a party of high-level heroes, the azurites would have managed to get the city rid of goblinoids in a few days.

The evidence we have in no way supports this. The Azure City army was destroyed or fled. So all the defenders would have would be a small force in the throne room. [Recall here that "run away" has always been a prime tactic of the Order. They are not going to be able to chase off an entire army. They may be able to win a long siege, but even that is dicy.

[factotum]

If they had rushed to the Throne Room in #449, they wouldn't have needed to leave anything to chance.

Really? Xykon was in the throne room throwing lightning and fireballs around. The Ghost Martyrs only had a 50% chance of being hit by those, so they're fine. The Order and Hinjo don't have that advantage, so they get fried in pretty short order.

Now, let's say for the sake of argument that they somehow survive that and manage to defeat Xykon. They hold the throne room. Big whoop--the rest of the city still gets overrun with hobgoblins, Xykon regenerates inside a week, and assuming the Order and Hinjo haven't died of thirst yet, goes back in and finishes the job. Chances are that one of the defenders would have to "do a Miko" and destroy the Gate to prevent it falling into the enemy's hands, only in this scenario, the entire Order dies doing that.

On the plus side, Familicide never happens and the entire Draketooth clan is still there to defend the pyramid when Xykon shows up; unfortunately, because he knows exactly where it is, all their clever illusions and what-have-you completely fail to stop him, so he rips through them in pretty short order. The trap in the corridor wouldn't stop him because undead are immune to mind-affecting spells, so he goes right to the Gate and he and Redcloak do the ritual. Game over.

[zimmerwald1915]

44. I counted. Twice.

Is that how many can fit inside the volume of a fireball or how many fit within a great circle of the fireball drawn on the battlemat?