[WW/Mafia] Harem Comedy: "Busted!" Season One

[Murska]

There's a surprising amount of backlash for pointing out something that's generally accepted as genuinely suspicious and voting on it, early day one. What do you want, for me to have a more solid case than a suspicious opening a couple hours into the game?

I've put pressure on Cultist, and they've doubled down on being super defensive. Snow's had a bunch of votes on them but reacted in a more genuine way imo, also I doubt they'd claim mindmeld as a wolf at this point.

If I work on the hypothesis that Cultist is town, then I'd look at people trying to push this v/v conversation without getting into the thick of it. Aleph is either very confused or making things up, but it's a bit blatant to be a wolf maybe. Zelphas completely ignored the whole thing, remaining in RVS even after I ended it. What is even the point of voting without even the intent to pressure? Illven joined the wagon without saying much, which I would glance at with more interest if 3SC flipped town - but still probably not that much interest. My instinct is that a wolf would try to justify their vote more. Taffi placed a pressure vote on someone else, which gets them off my list for today, pending some flips.

JeenLeen put in some effort to solve, and had the opposite read as me from 3SC. Fair enough, I guess, but I get some warning bells from how the vote at me seems like motivated reasoning. Like they're looking for something, anything to be able to turn things around. This is where I'd look first if 3SC flipped wolf.

[bladescape]

Zelphas

Reasons.

[Lady Serpentine]

Snow's response to pressure was quite satisfactory for now, so I'm happy to see what Bladescape's reasons are. Zelphas, speak up, would you?

[Xihirli]

I want to keep pressure on 3SecondCultist.
You don’t think that makes me mean, do you Protagonist-kun?

[Xumtiil]

I want to keep pressure on 3SecondCultist.
You don’t think that makes me mean, do you Protagonist-kun?

Cassie's an awesome queen,
She'll be ready to forgive
I will stop pushing JeenLeen
Persolus, why should we let you live?

Your posts are meager
Have some pressure
Might make you eager
to counter my displeasure.

[JeenLeen]

Who is "Ti"? Maybe I'm overlooking, but I didn't notice someone by that name posting and quite possibly overlooked.

Jeen, I never had or hinted at intention to vote Murska. Why did you think I did?

I misread the post of yours that I quoted. My apologies.

[Taffimai]

Cassie's an awesome queen,
She'll be ready to forgive
I will stop pushing JeenLeen
Persolus, why should we let you live?

Your posts are meager
Have some pressure
Might make you eager
to counter my displeasure.

You're quoting Xihirli but replying only to her fluff, not her content. Earlier you asked me a question without quoting the post that sparked it. Do you have an opinion about Xihirli keeping pressure on Cultist? What's your read on Snow?

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Who is "Ti"? Maybe I'm overlooking, but I didn't notice someone by that name posting and quite possibly overlooked.

Serpentine

[Xumtiil]

You're quoting Xihirli but replying only to her fluff, not her content. Earlier you asked me a question without quoting the post that sparked it. Do you have an opinion about Xihirli keeping pressure on Cultist? What's your read on Snow?

Xihirli is as Xihirli does
That much is sure
I'm watching my back,
missing kidneys have no cure.

Snow looks town for now
But there is a bit of bias
She did a good job last game
For D1, I give her a pass

[bladescape]

I'm giving Xum a D1 pass too.

Not because they've done anything towny.

Because I like the poetry.

[Xihirli]

Cassie's an awesome queen,
She'll be ready to forgive
I will stop pushing JeenLeen
Persolus, why should we let you live?

Your posts are meager
Have some pressure
Might make you eager
to counter my displeasure.

Your rhyming is beautiful, Rival-kun.
I mean, Xumtiil-kun.

[Snowblaze]

Taffimai can join my tentative townleans pile. Though noting she hasn't crossed out her Xumtiil vote.

The poetry is amusing, yes. I won't be producing any of my own on the grounds that I am utterly incapable of writing poetry.

Xumtiil, why don't you want to vote Jeen any more?

Mildly paranoid about how many people are townreading me/giving me a D1 pass after last game, but also it's better than the alternative and I don't know who specifically would have TMI/be trying to pocket me.

[Xumtiil]

You're all too kind
But credit where it's due
Taffimai's poem was the catalyst,
Longer and more elegant, too.

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Xumtiil, why don't you want to vote Jeen any more?

The vote was there for pressure
Since they were absent
They arrived with some insight
which made me content


For now.

[Batcathat]

Although there's still a lot of time left, it would be nice to move my vote somewhere real. So let's look at the main contenders:

Cultist: Pretty much discussed already. Some warning signs, but similar warning signs were present as a townie (well, at the time, anyway) in Utropia.
Ti: For now, I'll take blade's word for the style being in line with her town game. Jumping from target to target might be towny (or it might be a wolf trying to find a mislynch target that sticks, I suppose).
Murska: Brain says I like his reasoning, gut says I don't quite trust it.
Snow: Feels towny, but Snow is very good at faking towny. For what it's worth, I mostly agree with her reads (with the possible exception of Murska).
Zelphas: Two (allegedly) random votes, both on newish players. Could be genuine. Could be a wolf checking out mislynch options (though with how rarely new players get lynched D1, this one feels unlikely). Could be a wolf creating some distance to a partner, with a built-in excuse to switch when necessary (though if that's the case, I doubt both are Zelphas' wolf buddies, that seems a little too brazen).
Someone else: Obviously there's still time to try and start a new wagon, but I don't really have any good leads there either. (And really, at least one of the five wagons kinda have to be a wolf, right?)

Well, that produced a startling lack of epiphanies. Maybe I should sleep on it. Input is usually appreciated, if rarely trusted.

[JeenLeen]

Mechanics question: in recruitment, AV said that vanillagers and wolves would have a networking power. That never got changed, right?
I asked AV privately, but she's offline and I feel like posting this sooner than later.

Theoretical scheming question: I have a very basic/generic town power. So I think there's probably other townies with "normal" powers (watcher, baner, innocent child, maybe vig but AV's dislike of it means maybe not). Of course that's not necessarily true, but I believe AV advertised this as a low-power game with mostly vanillager townies. And conversation seems to have died down, so I hope some hypothetical might drive up discussion.

If there's an Innocent Child, usually it's bad to reveal it until they are up for lynch since it paints a target on their back.
But with a networking power and probably-a-baner around, maybe they should claim (that is, get AV to declare them as Town). Set up a trusted network hub, and the unclaimed baner can protect them.
Of course, the wolves would infiltrate the network since they have networking powers, too, but still seems a way to coordinate and perhaps catch someone in a lie.

Or would it better to wait until D2 to set it up? More intel by then, and the baner is free to bane who they will N1.

Anyway, even if nobody claims Innocent Child, even if there's no Innocent Child to claim, discussion/opinion about this could yield intel.


@Xumtiil: in one of your poems, something could be hinting at my Role title. I kinda doubt you were, but IF you were... well, I think you're right. Probably just a coincidence.

[Persolus]

Cassie's an awesome queen,
She'll be ready to forgive
I will stop pushing JeenLeen
Persolus, why should we let you live?

Your posts are meager
Have some pressure
Might make you eager
to counter my displeasure.

ughhh, do you even read? it's, like, the same thing i say at the start of every game
plus, i'm, like, totally town, it's just, i have a life too, ya know?



Unless I've counted wrong:
3SecondCultist - 3 Xihirli, Murska, Ilven

Snowblaze - 2 Let'sGetKraken, Book Wombat
Zelphas - 2 Lady Serpentine, Bladescape
Lady Serpentine - 2 3SecondCultist, Persolus
Let'sGetKraken - 2 Taffimai, Snowblaze
Murska - 2 Aleph Null, JeenLeen

Bladescape - 1 Batcathat
Book Wombat - 1 Cazero
Cazero - 1 Zelphas
Persolus - 1 Xumtiil

Personally, I still don't know you all well enough to get reads off of what's been said so far, so I don't have much else yet.

@BatCatHat any opinion on the Let'sGetKraken wagon, which i think you missed in your analysis?


@JeenLeen I have asked AV about this power, and that was one thing she did actually give me a straight answer on - yes, it still exists.

@Taffimai as snow mentioned, please cross out your initial vote on Xumtiil

[Batcathat]

@BatCatHat any opinion on the Let'sGetKraken wagon, which i think you missed in your analysis?

Indeed I did, I had forgotten to enter Taff's switch into my sheet. So instead of five options I can't choose between, there's six. Fantastic.

At least ISOing Kraken didn't take long, but the result is a resounding null.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Indeed I did, I had forgotten to enter Taff's switch into my sheet. So instead of five options I can't choose between, there's six. Fantastic.

At least ISOing Kraken didn't take long, but the result is a resounding null.

I am currently recovering from illness, training a subordinate at work and it's P8, so I am pulling overtime. Going to cite IRL reasons for inactivity there. Trying to watch the thread but do not have time/energy for analysis until the weekend at the earliest.

[Xumtiil]

Persolus responded to my satisfaction
He needs not fear my combat
Let's see if we can get some traction
On the one and only Wombat

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Indeed I did, I had forgotten to enter Taff's switch into my sheet. So instead of five options I can't choose between, there's six. Fantastic.

At least ISOing Kraken didn't take long, but the result is a resounding null.

I am sorry for your conundrum
I seem to have made it worse
Seven you can choose from
Accept my apology in verse.

[Zelphas]

Zelphas

Reasons.

Bladescape is generally solid on his reasons, and I tend to read as scummy when I'm noticed in early game. This is likely a study in futility, but could I ask what the reasons are? It's early enough that anything could be true, but I'm interested in the thought process behind the conclusion--"showing your work", as it were.

Snow's response to pressure was quite satisfactory for now, so I'm happy to see what Bladescape's reasons are. Zelphas, speak up, would you?

I do better the more information I have, and Day 1 is the height of having absolutely no information. I'm still getting the hang of reading subtext behind thread messages, which probably explains why I keep coming back to and enjoying these games despite never surviving or winning a single one so far. Ask for my reads on Day 2, and I'll provide what I can. For now, the best I can do is observe the class and try to start recognizing things.

[Book Wombat]

Persolus responded to my satisfaction
He needs not fear my combat
Let's see if we can get some traction
On the one and only Wombat

Hello hello, what is it you wish to know?

[Xumtiil]

Hello hello, what is it you wish to know?

What are your thoughts here
Your reads on Snow, Cultist, and others
Appreciated

[Illven]

Illven joined the wagon without saying much, which I would glance at with more interest if 3SC flipped town - but still probably not that much interest. My instinct is that a wolf would try to justify their vote more.

I did not realize their was a wagon.

But my reasons stay the safe. First post equals guilty conscience.

[Xihirli]

First post equals guilty conscience.

Yes, we have to punish the guilty, Protagonist-Kun.
hee-hee.

[bladescape]

To be clear this isn't "I found a wolf."

Zelphas has done things but need more fire to see if they burn like they got fur.

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Showing my work lol

- - - Updated - - -

Always happy to discuss my process outside a live game but generally find people guessing what I'm doing helps me read them.

[Snowblaze]

3SecondCultist 3: Xihirli, Murska, Ilven
Murska 2: Aleph Null, JeenLeen
Snowblaze 2: Book Wombat, Let'sGetKraken
Let'sGetKraken 2: Snowblaze, Taffimai
Zelphas 2: bladescape, Lady Serpentine
Book Wombat 2: Cazero, Xumtiil
Lady Serpentine 2: Persolus, 3SecondCultist
Cazero 1: Zelphas
bladescape 1: Batcathat

Well. This is a... weird gamestate. I guess I only actively dislike two of the wagons (Murska and Ti), three if you count myself. But still.

I'd suggest consolidation but... I'd vote 3SC over any of the other wagons and I don't want to do that rn. I should probably skim Zelphas again and see if I can figure out bladescape's Reasons.

The alternative is trying to get a new wagon moving... would anyone be interested in voting Jeen or Aleph with me, or does anyone have a suspect they'd like my help in wagoning?

And, of course, questions!

- 3SC, has your opinion of Ti changed given recent events? Why/why not?

- Ti, who are the wolves? Xumtiil, same question.

- Ilven, do you have thoughts on anyone who isn't 3SC? (And if so what are they?)

[Book Wombat]

What are your thoughts here
Your reads on Snow, Cultist, and others
Appreciated

Um, sorry to disappoint but I do not really have reads.

[Taffimai]

@Murska Do you really still want to kill Cultist today?

@JeenLeen Can you explain your vote for Murska a bit more please? Also do I have it correct that in your first post where you say "Serpentine" you mean "Murska"?

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Also I'll be honest I think your IC plan is bad because the baner can only protect them so long and then the wolves can pick off the central figure in the communications web N2-N3 right as it begins to be the most useful. And I'm not sure I'd want to openly organise such a web anyway because that used to be done here a lot before I started playing and it seemed profoundly un-fun for the non-PR townies whose input becomes irrelevant.

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(that was still for JeenLeen)

[Xumtiil]

- Ti, who are the wolves? Xumtiil, same question.

It is the first day
I have no firm grasp
Of the ones that stray
Out of Cassie's clasp.

My gut pings for some
But I will not yet share
If I'm right I'd be soon gone
If I'm wrong it'd cause despair
Also totally Bladescape, maybe Ti

[Batcathat]

I still don't love any of the wagons (thanks for making even more of them, by the way. ), but going with my gut I'm gonna say Zelphas for now.

[bladescape]

I still don't love any of the wagons (thanks for making even more of them, by the way. ), but going with my gut I'm gonna say Zelphas for now.

Who would you like as a wagon?