Crazier Idea Mafia

[Xihirli]

Okay, sure. Being persuaded by good arguments is a wolf-lean now and I was trying to get my buddy lynched in a massive distancing play. You caught me.

Or! Consider: You said that the scum!RA only makes sense if we're on the same scum team, and me and RA would be the only people who know we aren't.

Now, I see your question coming: are me and RA on the same scum team?

No comment.

[AvatarVecna]

Okay, sure. Being persuaded by good arguments is a wolf-lean now and I was trying to get my buddy lynched in a massive distancing play. You caught me.

Or! Consider: You said that the scum!RA only makes sense if we're on the same scum team, and me and RA would be the only people who know we aren't.

Now, I see your question coming: are me and RA on the same scum team?

No comment.

Perhaps I should've added a to the end of my previous post. I don't think you or RA is scum, I just think it's a very funny reaction, considering the post contents.

[Xihirli]

Yeah, I thought of it as I was posting, even. But then, hey. If I die, I die.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: The Outsider ISO

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I like that line of thought, but I don't feel too comfortable starting a wagon just yet. So I'm going to vote Valmark for the moment.

Anyone have thoughts on what Town-aligned discards are more likely to be evil? Is it more sus to have discarded Protective, Killing, Roleblocking, etc?

Meaningless vote and a useful question, but also the kinda easy question scum could ask to look more townie.

Does this seem shady to anyone else? Like one evil faction indirectly shifting attention to another? I could be misreading it, but it feels shady to me.



Not that I can prove it, but I did in fact receive three Town cards.

Does this seem shady to anyone else? Like one evil faction indirectly shifting attention to another? I could be misreading it, but it feels shady to me.



Not that I can prove it, but I did in fact receive three Town cards.

Everybody figures Mafia is small or nonexistent, so aliens and WW probably have good ideas of how big a scum faction should be. Elenna saying "there's no WW discards, we should worry about WW being big" isn't as suspicious as this post implies, it's just also true of aliens and that's kinda sus that she didn't mention them. We later find out Elenna is alien, so that checks out.

This post could be WW seeing Elenna fingering WWs but not aliens and thinking she must be an alien throwing shade on the WW faction, and so he throws shade right back. It could also be a townie noticing the oddness. Difficult to say.

Interesting line of thought. We don't really have anything better to go on, so let's see what happens with Apogee1.

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Spoiler: A funny thought I had...

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-Xihirli says that Cao's name is red
-If your name is red, you're an Impostor
-The only people who can see this are the Impostors
-This implies (and the joke is) that Xihirli is an Impostor along with Cao
-Impostors are shape-shifting aliens whose goal is to murder every human among them and take control
-Shape-shifting, murderous aliens...
-Murderous aliens...
Xihirli and Cao are both Aliens, and should be voted out at once!

Idk what to think of Xihirli's jokes. Hinting at a Xihirli/Cao team is the kinda thing I could see Xihirli doing. Far-fetched theory: Xihirli/Cao/TO are all wolves.

Any investigative roles (Town or otherwise) should really check that claim. Regardless, I'm willing to believe it for the moment.
Is it too much to ask what role you took along with survivor?
Caerulea

NAI.

Caerulea was next on my list of possible votes because of their discard. While TP can be boring, it's also vital for any Town that wants to win. I think someone said as much already.

Also, Caerulea themselves pointed out my other reason: they've said almost nothing. Quiet is bad for the Town, and I am a staunch advocate against it.

Reasonable, but easy for scum to do. NAI.

I'm gonna go ahead and join in on Apogee1. I honestly regret switching my vote off them last time, as the surv claim in retrospect seems like a desperate, last-minute gambit.

I also have a lingering suspicion of JeenLeen, which I might go into later after I eat some food and my brain comes back online. Side note: Elenna was in fact an evil trying to direct attention to the other evils. I love being right.

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Other side note: Looking forward to Xihirli's potential boatload of info.

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Gonna temporarily retract that FoS, since a line that I thought came from JeenLeen actually came from Caoiminh. Instead, I'm going to compile a list of suspicious actions thus far:

-JeenLeen: In addition to the points raised by AV, JeenLeen outright admitted that they would have been innocent-looking mafia given the chance. Not only that, but they lampshaded how weak their excuse was for giving up Innocent-Looking. This is admittedly weak since most people probably would do the same, but I'm noting it nonetheless.

-AV: I'm with Caoiminh here, as I don't see how voting yourself helps anybody to attain info or catch evils. Also the comment about how "voiding me clearly didn't stop a night kill" despite the fact that there could be oh so many night kills in this game.

-Caoiminh: It wasn't direct, but after I posited my theory about Elenna being an evil misdirecting attention, you basically responded with "You're right, but you could also be wrong and she does make a good point." You also said that it was less likely she was an alien, which is what she turned out to be. You could be a fellow alien covering for her, or I could be reading way too deep into things.

-Xihirli: Existed. In all seriousness, it's very hard to tell how much of what you've said is a joke and how much isn't.

Captain Cap: The only thing remotely sus they've done so far was cancel their vote on Caerulea despite said cancellation not changing the outcome. Could be an evil trying to look inno, could be a conflicted Townie.

gac3/plenty/Zelphas/PoR/rogue_alchemist: Y'all have been very quiet, which is automatically sus in my book. Granted, some of you are new and I'm sure everyone has a life to manage. But still, more speech=good.

Valmark: Has done absolutely nothing to get on my sus list thus far. Knowing my instincts, this probably means they're a wolf.

I appreciate the readlist, especially with how rare they've been this game.

Wow, I sure do pick the best times to tune out. Jesus H Christ.

Alright, thoughts.

-I'm willing to believe RA's claim for the moment. That being said, I was somewhat hoping that Apogee would flip WW/Mafia/Alien. Having them be the SK makes the D1 vote... confusing.

- Regardless of how Apogee flips, we might need to lynch Xihirli tomorrow. As much as Apogee was flailing around and calling everyone who voted them sus, they have a point. Xihirli is probably not going to pick Town over survivor. (At least from what little I've seen thus far.)

-I'm glad some of the quiet people have spoken up more. Zelphas has moved up a step in trustworthiness for me by virtue of reasonable explanations for their actions. Still might be evil, but at this point I'm more sus of Jeen than I am of them.

-And of course, the biggest question (in my mind): How exactly did Xihirli live through an attempted stabbing?

I'd like to hear TO's thoughts on my Zelphas theory - in particular, I'd like to hear more in detail what TO thought at the time moved Zelphas up a step in trustworthiness, cuz I'm really not seeing it.

Welp, that makes things a bit simpler. What exactly makes you think that the Werewolves have such a huge advantage?

Given how obvious Mafia's problems are, and given that there was a dead alien at this point, it seems obvious to me even at this point that WW faction was in the best position. I think it's really weird The Outsider seems oblivious to that. Feels like a WW trying to downplay how dangerous their faction is.

Trust in the divine guidance of RNGesus. It shall not lead you astray.

On another note, that certainly explains how Xihirli stayed alive. Unfortunately, none of the claims made are Town-exclusive, so pretty much anyone could be evil at this point.

NAI, beyond I guess being unhelpful commentary on the situation, and that being slightly sus.

Sorry, I'm a bit confused. The aliens have a vig who missed? Didn't WW die to aliens? And where does a mindslaver play into any of this?

Regardless of that, I'm voting for Captain Cap. Here's my reasoning:

-Cap has made a lot of posts that have served to muddy waters and generally say little while attempting to appear like a Townie engaging in discussion. See AV's ISO.
-Cap jumped off of a vote wagon to no effect on a target that turned out to be Town.
-Elenna, an alien, voted for them first and then never threw shade his way again. It could just be a random vote, or it could be an attempt to distance.

None of these on their own are enough to make me suspicious. But together, it's enough to grab my attention.

It's decent analysis, but I wish there was more of it going in a bunch of directions so we could dig into everything. This almost feels like a wolf putting together a bunch of small things to make them seem like a bigger thing than they really are, and I'm already kinda having doubts about Captain Cap's scumminess anyway.

FWIW, the Cao post they were responding to makes me wonder if maybe there's a Cao/Xihirli mafia, and they're deliberately choosing not to kill people to fly under the radar. Again, that theory's way out there, I'm just brainstorming in these things for the most part.

Oooooooooohhh, ok. I misunderstood how mindslaver worked: I thought it was like a Witch in Town of Salem, where you redirect your target itself. I didn't realize it was a roleblock-and-copy role.

NAI. Could be alien playing dumb, could be wolf/town that didn't realize how alien powers work.

Being voided would, as would an Alien Protector. There's one other possibility though: that Captain Cap is an Alien Psychotrooper/WW Secret agent. However, that would mean that RA is an evil investigative role, since those are the only ones that get no result in that scenario. It's a possibility, but not a very likely one.

NAI.

I'm honestly not sure about that part either. I'm voting CC due to my aforementioned reasons, and it is possible that an Alien Protector covered them up and created the "no result." But the "pretty damning" quote confuses me.

NAI.

Not really sure what to make of all this. GTH I'd say that this is a whole lot of posts but not much content, and I suspect TO is scum of one flavor or another.

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Spoiler: Valmark ISO

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I dunno. It was pretty spred out last game- meaning that most people picked non-Town regardless of what they discarded. I'm not sure the case of all three Town cards is a decent argument past the initial voting.

For the initial voting though it IS better then no idea.


Mmm good question. From what I understand it's info-gathering roles that are better for Town- but in a game with multiple factions I reckon everybody wants to get more intelligence.

Anyway, you all know it. AvatarVecna.

NAI, just general discussion and a meta-vote.

Because I don't find it useful as Town. Saving yourself from the lynch while making yourself confirmed Town is normally useful, but in a game with three 'evil' factions that can bypass protections (well, only two of those)? It's utility is greatly diminished IMO. I'd rather pick it as non-Town to fool scries (and even then, it becomes 'what's the change of him belonging to 1/2 of the game's factions'?).

Plus, we don't have private QTs and that further decreases the value of a confirmed Townie in a 4-sided game.


Not sure about the Aliens honestly- a Mindslaver would be far more useful then the killing one.

A solid argument about the relative usefulness of the Innocent role.

Psssst, you counted me twice but separately.

NAI.

This- one of the reason for last game's win is that the faction that won was basically left unscathed through the game if I recall correctly.

Townie points here, pointing out that victory is achieved by hunting down members of each faction rather than focusing one to death. It would be in scum's interest to muddy the waters.

If you are the Survivor why not claim earlier? Seems to me like you'd want to let people know who you are.

Posts like this make me feel more confident in one of my theories. Town lean.

Shouldn't it be NIGHT 1?

NAI.

So, uhm, AvatarVecna, is there an actual plan to lynching you? I feel like that's a legitimate question on D2.

Also Apogee1, the same question from D1- why not claim earlier if you are the one role nobody really cares of wanting dead?

Refusing to let it go just because the lynch is over, this is building on the previous townlean.

...I don't get this. You know you aren't good to anybody dead and thus you think claiming makes you more likely to get targeted by a strongman?

Also you were most definitely getting voted since people moved away afterwards- at least I seem to recall they did.

Given that it's possible that you're an alien (Elenna defending you, could also mean Zelphas is depending on how you read it) I think you've claimed knowing somebody in your group drew the card and thus you know you can't be counterclaimed.

As Caerulea said last Day phase- if it's wrong, we lose nobody. If it's true you likely aren't Town, unless you can prove it somehow?

Apogee1 meanwhile.

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Or gambled on the role people wouldn't really wan to kill.

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...faction, not role.

Lovin' it.

Missed this. I see- although there is to say that Jeen does that basically at least once I game regardless of the faction, or at least so it looks from the games we were both in.

No objection on the rest.

Well, I didn't need another reason, but I'll take it.

NAI.

That if Apogee1 is not Survivor nor Town Zelphas is getting voted first thing in the morning.

Or getting killed I suppose- their reasoning for not voting Apogee1 looks weird enough that it wouldn't be strange if they get killed by whatever faction isn't Apogee's (assuming A1 flips non-town/non-survivor).

Or. They just haven't been online since the debate started.

Okay so Apogee flipping SK makes Zelphas look not-aligned with Apogee, so I can forgive Valmark for not voting Zelphas today (even though technically Apogee didn't flip town or survivor).

I like the feel I'm getting from these posts so far.

The vig would have missed last night- as for the mindslaver, it's exactly what happened last game. A mindslaver that catches the one doing the killing or a strongman can use their kill (and I'm still bothered by that. I think the interaction between strongman and mindslaver is something I actively dislike).

At least it seems likely Mafia isn't present in the game by now, unless they've been super unlucky.

NAI, just rules clarifications and some very basic guesses.

It's not. The mindslaver redirects the target normally, but if they target a Strongman the Strongman's kill still goes through and the Mindslaver gets to aim a kill at somebody else.

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And if the Strongman isn't doing the kill a Mindslaver still gets the kill.

NAI.

You mean where I said that it's not a good reason to vote for them?

(Also I don't follow, am I being accused of being both Alien and Werewolf?)

If you look at the whole post you'll see that I was replying to something else with "For the initial voting though it IS better then no idea.".

I said that everybody would want those, which means it's not telling wether one discarded them or not.

Alright, personally I think that it's not telling. In case you were thinking I said that as an objective statement.

Right, you wouldn't know having never played with me before- first day when we have no information to go on I always vote for the first in the list that has no votes on them. It's just another way for random voting.

I really didn't expect that I'd ever have to explain my Day 1 random voting on Day 3 XD never happened before.

This is the other side of the argument with plenty, and as I said before, I like what I see.

I'm not sure I understand why getting no result means CC is evil? Or at least why it's "pretty damning"?

NAI. Slight town lean for pushing the issue, but most people pushed it so eh.

Currently I'm not voting because I'm hoping RA will reply to what was said- that 'pretty damning' is so weird given the plausible explanation that they got voided.

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Even to me it looks weird that RA would expose themselves to catch CC- especially with a perfectly plausible option.

And the points you bring up about CC (can't recall if those were the same Outsider mentioned) seem valid- I wouldn't be against that plan, though I'd still like to see first what the two involved (RA and CC) explain themselves.

I like this wait-and-see approach, although I hope RA doesn't disappear on us for too long and keep Valmark from voting.

Easily my strongest town lean.

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Spoiler: Xihirli ISO

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It's CaomhinTheCape. His name is red.

Possible joke, but maybe not.

I'd agree, but there's a difference between discarding town and discarding Town Killing, I should say.

A decent point but not built to anything. Still, it's early at this point...we don't need big analysis yet.

Guys. Guys.
Caoimhin's name is red.

Possible joke, but maybe not.

No, I mean when we call an emergency meeting, your name is red.

Possible joke, but maybe not.

So it seems like we're all clustering around the people who discarded the best town roles. For me I picked the person who discarded vigilante AND HIS NAME IS RED, YOU GUYS!, but the others gravitated toward the "I can confirm my role" discarder.

Though JeenLeen's consideration of Apogee1 is interesting to me. I kind of want to see where it goes if Apogee1 bites it.

Possible joke, but maybe not.

We finally get a real reason, at least, even if it's one I disagree with. I'm of the opinion that vigilante is about as anti-town as a town role can get. Admittedly this particular game can get weird on that front, but I think Cao was vig in L4D3 so I can see them ditching it here without that being sus.

A ridiculous claim from one such as you. You were banished with the other outsiders.

NAI.

I see what you're saying, but consider: We have a 60%+ chance of getting someone who isn't town. Suddenly, Town has a weird margin of error change where they get to be less careful with their votes while simultaneously needing it a lot more. The more people are dead, the better it is for town.
So I guess you're right, I don't really care that much who dies day one. I think anyone will do. But I've never been a fan of the "you're voting for me so you're on my list of suspicion" argument so now I have to kill you on principle.

Luckily for you, I forget my principles all the time, so I could see myself switching wagons. Cao's name is red, so that's a good wagon to go with. Or this AV self-voting gambit could be fun to watch.

A solid point that town can be a bit more reckless with kills in a game like this. Slight townlean since scum wouldn't necessarily wanna spread that info around.

I never prepare for anything.

NAI.

Wow, I missed a lot. Sorry, everyone.
But on the plus side, I've LOTS to tell you tomorrow morn!

NAI.

Oh, we started up again!

Okay, my big announcement:

There is no survivor.
I drew that card, Apogee1 is lying, and since I didn't choose Survivor we are not playing with that role in the game.

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Though on a closer read, it looks like you guys already figured that out. So that was less of a helpful bit of knowledge than I thought it would be.

NAI. RA got townpoints for claiming seer and fingering Apogee as serial killer, but Xihirli doesn't get points for doing something similar, and the small differences are why. RA claimed seer, Xihirli didn't claim at all - just claimed she had the option to take Survivor and didn't. But also, I said that scum would want SK in play longer, and so RA outing themselves to catch the SK is a townie move way more than a scum move. But Xihirli didn't know Apogee was SK, she just knew Apogee was lying about being Survivor. If Xihirli is scum, it looks like Apogee is lying scum, and she can get town to off one of her rivals from another faction while getting townie points for providing the key evidence (well, key at the time). I could definitely see scum!Xihirli pulling this move just as easily as town!Xihirli pulling this move. GTH, I'd say slight scumlean here because Xihirli could've said it yesteday but didn't...and maybe that's a "didnt see the claim in time" thing, but it could also be a "wanted to talk things over with scumbuddies" thing.

So that whatever faction Apogee was in didn't kill me out of spite, mostly.

But yeah, his late-day save was missed by me.

Maybe, maybe not.

There's a reason we call wolves the Dark Spirits of the Silent.

Spoiler: Oh wait that's this

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NAI.

Come on Apogee, you're embarassing yourself now. Calling everyone who's suspicious of you a wolf, jumping around all the hoops. You're not doing yourself any favors.


Nah, I'm good. I'm okay with being voided to see if an SK kill goes off.

*takes notes*

Not a he, Zelphas.

NAI.

I don't think there's any sense to thinking of me as anything but a loyal member of Town, always and forever. So let's abandon these avenues of thought.

Jokes.

Okay, I'm gonna stop letting you get away with this slander.

Survivor: The survivor wins if they last to the end of the day
I assume that means game? In either case:
Boring.
Boring.
I would NEVER choose survivor. Over anything else on that list.
And I will not stand for being slandered in this means.

I am chaotic. And I don't define that on your terms.

I agree with this, I don't see Xihirli picking Survivor over town, and that's part of why I felt weird about TO going along with it earlier.

What if town is evil?

Yes, accept your death and embrace the absurd. It is the only way to stay sane in this cruel world.

Just more jokes. Now that the lynch is basically locked in, Xihirli stops doing arguments or searching elsewhere for more stuff to talk about and just starts playing more casually. Not a good look.

In response to your question, AV:
I didn't think the counterclaim would help Town in the night, and waited until we could get a vote done. And I didn't counterclaim the day before because I wasn't checking this thread from the time of Apogee's claim to the end of day.

A decent response, even if I'm not sure I believe it.

Praise be.

NAI.

Huh. I was really hoping we'd taken out all the aliens.

If they've taken a killer, may I suggest a usual suspect to mind-enslave in AvatarVecna? Nothing you've done, AV. Just if I were an alien you're who I'd mind control. It's a compliment, really.

Oh. Well, nevermind. I guess it's an alien faction kill. In which case I understand the wagon on CaptainCap and could be persuaded, but for now I'm a tad flummoxed.

Feels like just muddying the waters.

Would being voided not give you "no result"?

NAI. Lotta people pointed this out.

Yyyyyeah, I'm not seeing it. You could have been voided, Rogue.
And I notice the result you got seems tailored to on the surface seem pretty damning while simultaneously not staking your reputation or ability to scry on what the result is. Like "oops, we killed Town Protector! Guess I was voided!"
Simultaneously playing it safe and trying to get someone killed makes me want to point the finger back at you, rogue_alchemist.

I'm not really seeing what other people are, where this somehow looks more scummy than towny. The only explanations amount to "town!RA made a mistake" or "scum!RA made a MONUMENTAL MISTAKE without any scumbuddies warning them ", and I think the former is far more likely.

Another note: Scum!RA doesn't have to have an actual scry power to know that Cap isn't on their team. I see two situations that lead to Scum!Ra leveling this accusation at Cap that don't include RA having a scry.

- A different member of their faction has a scry and IDed Cap as dangerous.
- Cap already had suspicion on them, RA just wanted to get everyone behind lynching Cap to keep discussion closed around one wagon and misjudged how "damning" their evidence really was

And I did think of a few others but they're all just a subset of the two above.
And this doesn't get Cap off the hook. In fact, if RA flips wolf I'll suspect Cap of being alien, or vice-versa, and this was a play to remove a particular scum's power role while scoring town points.

Now, if Rogue has an actual scry result on Cap as a scum, why not just say that? Point. We can burn that bridge when we cross a river over two birds in a glass castle.

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...Huh. Those new ISOs certainly are interesting. And convincing, in fact. Particularly that on Zelphas. If that wagon doesn't go anywhere, AV has already convinced me to get off of RA and onto Cap as far as that bit goes.
Kinda even as I was writing the Scum!RA scenarios I could feel them being far-fetched, particularly when I was verging into "what if they're opposite scum", and RA sticking their neck out like that to get someone killed is definitely more Town than what my initial gut reaction "wait! That means nothing!" was.

I've already pointed out how funny I think this post is, contextually.

Okay, sure. Being persuaded by good arguments is a wolf-lean now and I was trying to get my buddy lynched in a massive distancing play. You caught me.

Or! Consider: You said that the scum!RA only makes sense if we're on the same scum team, and me and RA would be the only people who know we aren't.

Now, I see your question coming: are me and RA on the same scum team?

No comment.

Jokes.

Yeah, I thought of it as I was posting, even. But then, hey. If I die, I die.

NAI.

Never sure how to read Xihirli. Scum is my guess, but it's only a guess. Probably scum with Cao.

[rogue_alchemist]

Still not totally here like I hoped for this game. I knew being voided was an option, but I guess I got over excited thinking of the other possibilities along with the analysis and wagon that had started.

[AvatarVecna]

Moving my vote to Zelphas for the time being.

[Xihirli]

I'm gonna sabotage myself a bit here and say that if I were scum I would absolutely remind town that they can be less careful with their kills. Show me the blood! See if the schnozberries taste like schnozberries!

But I'd add onto that that the same thing I said about votes can be said of the Vigilante. This is the game where "mostly team-killing" isn't the vig's nightly routine. And thus I'll stand by my "you didn't take vigilante in a game where firing off a shotgun in the dark will probably help town" assessment as valid.

Anyway, you're right that I didn't claim and that's not about to change. You have no reason to believe me if I say anything other than Survivor (or scum) and for that you have more reasons not to believe me.

Thank you for backing me up on the fact that I'd never choose Survivor, AV. That means a lot. Hugs!

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Also I didn't play Left 4 Dead 3. So I guess I defer to you on that.

[Valmark]

Still not totally here like I hoped for this game. I knew being voided was an option, but I guess I got over excited thinking of the other possibilities along with the analysis and wagon that had started.

I'm not sure what else I expected to be honest xD

I read it slightly as a 'I got heat on me, thus I'll agree with having gotten overexcited' but that could just be bias- I wouldn't mind lynching either CC or RA but if I have to choose I'd rather lynch CC who replied so strongly at that sentence- because it looks like he replied badly under pressure and that's not usually Townie (I saw some pretty bad Town reactions too, but less then the wolves reactions).

Now, about Zelphas. Borrowing AV's ISO which has all the posts they keep giving me the feeling that they are Alien- my problem with this is that on Day 2 I fully expected Apogee1 to turn up alien (and thus Zelph would be allied) so now I'm unsure on wether to suspect Zelphas or not.

Does anybody have an updated list of the current wagons? I think (since we still got a day) I'd rather keep the wagons going side by side and possibly switch vote near end of the day depending on what has happened.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

If we're moving around votes for now, I don't mind throwing some pressure on the person who can roleblock and hasn't shown up today - PartyOfRogues.



Even though we've moved all our votes around, I feel like a claim would do Captain Cap some good here so if you have anything to say in the next 18 hours I'd recommend it.

Gonna post again in just a little bit but I gotta step away for a few.

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Vote Count:
Captain Cap (2): The Outsider, rogue_alchemist
rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
Zelphas (2): Xihirli, AvatarVecna
PartyOfRogues (1): CaoimhinTheCape


Not voting: PartyOfRogues, Zelphas, Valmark, plenty

[Valmark]

Zelphas (3): AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Valmark
Captain Cap (2): The Outsider, rogue_alchemist
Rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
PartyOfRogues (1): CaoimhinTheCape


If I counted correctly... It's a perfectly split amount of votes, uh.
Voting Zelphas in the hope of attracting a substantial reply to AV's ISO, but I'll be around tomorrow to change it if I like the replies.

I'd also like to hear Captain Cap's thoughts on ra's explanation.

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If we're moving around votes for now, I don't mind throwing some pressure on the person who can roleblock and hasn't shown up today - PartyOfRogues.



Even though we've moved all our votes around, I feel like a claim would do Captain Cap some good here so if you have anything to say in the next 18 hours I'd recommend it.

Gonna post again in just a little bit but I gotta step away for a few.

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Vote Count:
Captain Cap (2): The Outsider, rogue_alchemist
rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
Zelphas (2): Xihirli, AvatarVecna
PartyOfRogues (1): CaoimhinTheCape


Not voting: PartyOfRogues, Zelphas, Valmark, plenty

...ninja'd. Keeping my vote on Zelphas for pressure.

[The Outsider]

I'd like to hear TO's thoughts on my Zelphas theory - in particular, I'd like to hear more in detail what TO thought at the time moved Zelphas up a step in trustworthiness, cuz I'm really not seeing it.

I hadn't thought of it that way. In my mind, just plain talking and giving reasons for actions was a step up from silence and voting the person who voted you. I also might have been a bit biased: I was incredibly confused by the metagame during my first game, and felt it was reasonable for someone else to be confused as well. That being said, the logic is convincing, and if Captain Cap gave me a good reason to take my vote off of them I'd be willing to vote Zelphas.

I agree with this, I don't see Xihirli picking Survivor over town, and that's part of why I felt weird about TO going along with it earlier.

Yeah, this one is a combined case of "projecting myself onto others" and "not knowing Xihirli very well." I personally would never pick Town over Survivor, because I feel that you can have much more fun and create much more chaos when you don't have to worry about helping a given faction. I then assumed that Xihirli would feel the same, and, well, you know what they say about assuming. I apologize for the presumption.

[Xihirli]

I then assumed that Xihirli would feel the same, and, well, you know what they say about assuming.

It makes an ass out of u and ming?

[AvatarVecna]

FoS on Valmark for wanting a close vote, making the vote 3-2-1-1, being made aware that his vote could be moved to make it 2-2-2-1, and keeping his vote on Zelphas anyway.

[The Outsider]

It makes an ass out of u and ming?

That's the one!

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Didn't post as soon as I had planned, but is there any reason people can think of for the Alien kill on gac? It seems like a weird pick for any non-town group to pick the guy who didn't talk at all the previous day.

Do we think that Aliens have an invest to targeted gac and learned he was Wolf? Did they just want to avoid getting blocked? Or are they confident enough in their standing with the town that they didn't want to rock the boat?

[Zelphas]

All right, I thought that this would keep for a bit while I took care of RL stuff. That seems to have been a massive error in judgment.

To sum up what I understand from this day so far:

--The Outsider voted Captain Cap based on vague comments and a vote on someone who turned out to be Town (I think in Day 2?).

--Xihirli voted AvatarVecna on the off chance that AV was a killer (based seemingly on knowledge from prior games).

--Most people were waiting on rogue_alchemist to come on and give an Investigative result, except for plenty who voted Valmark because of the Town-discard reasoning from Day 1.

--AvatarVecna voted for herself, as has been the standard initial vote for her in the past three days.

--rogue_alchemist stated that he got no result when he investigated Captain Cap, and so voted him based on that.

--CaomhintheCape posted within 20 minutes, agreeing with rogue_alchemist's vote in order to put more pressure on Captain Cap.

--Xihirli questioned rogue_alchemist's "No Result" explanation, eventually switching her vote to him.

--Captain Cap put forward a case of the plausibility of rogue_alchemist being blocked/voided, and based on his "over-eagerness" voted for him.

--AvatarVecna noted some concern about the quietness of the thread.

--Caomhin the Cape echoed much of Captain Cap's reasoning and switched their vote to rogue_alchemist.

--AvatarVecna points out that either Captain Cap is scum and rogue_alchemist is Town, or rogue_alchemist is scum and we know nothing about Captain Cap. She switches her vote to Captain Cap based on this.

--AvatarVecna releases several more ISOs, including mine.

--Twelve minutes later, Xihirli switches her vote to me, even though she states that AvatarVecna convinced her to switch from rogue_alchemist to Captain Cap.

--AvatarVecna makes a comment implying that Xihirli might be scum; Xihirli replies with (faux?) indignation. AvatarVecna clarifies away any scum implication.

--AvatarVecna switches her vote to me "for now".

--Caomhin the Cape switches their vote to PartyOfRogues to put pressure on them to speak.

--Valmark votes me to pressure me to respond to AvatarVecna's ISO.

--The Outsider states that they're willing to vote me if Captain Cap can convince him to vote otherwise.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Reading through AvatarVecna's ISO, two things stuck out as to why she's leaning Alien on me. Both of them are reasonable. The first is that I came in late on both of the first two Days, usually only after being called out for being quiet. There's... not much I can do about that, since that basically just happened again. I should have commented earlier. Too late for that.

The second is that I seem to be commenting without paying much attention to what is going on. The above overly-long play-by-play is my attempt to both rectify that behavior on this Day in myself and to point out how much information I'm gleaning from the current circumstances. I prefer to have all the information as much as possible before I act, and in this game I thought that would work best by waiting for others to post and getting the information they are giving out, but I'm probably not gleaning nearly as much as I should in each of these days.

From what I have gathered (aside from the suspicion on me), the other main conflict seems to be between rogue_alchemist claiming that he got no result from investigating Captain Cap, and voting him based on the explanation for that being that he was most likely protected by scum. Captain Cap argued back that rogue_alchemist even getting that result suggests that rogue_alchemist is scum, and voting him based on that.

Because of rogue_alchemist's claim of "No Result", AvatarVecna's explanation for what that could mean for roles, and The Outsider's initial comments on why he voted Captain Cap in the first place, I'm putting my vote on Captain Cap. I will be happy to switch my vote should new arguments or information come to light, but this is what seems to make the most sense to me given what I know at the moment.

[Valmark]

Didn't post as soon as I had planned, but is there any reason people can think of for the Alien kill on gac? It seems like a weird pick for any non-town group to pick the guy who didn't talk at all the previous day.

Do we think that Aliens have an invest to targeted gac and learned he was Wolf? Did they just want to avoid getting blocked? Or are they confident enough in their standing with the town that they didn't want to rock the boat?

I don't think I understood your questions, at all. Especially the second one- how was gac3 blocking anybody? Wasn't Jeen the roleblocker among thr deaths?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I don't think I understood your questions, at all. Especially the second one- how was gac3 blocking anybody? Wasn't Jeen the roleblocker among thr deaths?

My three theories for why Aliens picked their kill:

- Elenna (or another alien) investigated gac and they knew he was a Wolf.
- They knew no Doctor would protect gac so the kill would go through.
- The talkative people in town trust the Aliens so they didn't care to shoot a better target.


That's basically what I meant. I was just confused at why they chose to attack Gac.

- - - Updated - - -

That's sorta the point. Instead of Aliens going after Jeen the roleblocker they thought the biggest threat to them was gac?

[Valmark]

All right, I thought that this would keep for a bit while I took care of RL stuff. That seems to have been a massive error in judgment.

To sum up what I understand from this day so far:

--The Outsider voted Captain Cap based on vague comments and a vote on someone who turned out to be Town (I think in Day 2?).

--Xihirli voted AvatarVecna on the off chance that AV was a killer (based seemingly on knowledge from prior games).

--Most people were waiting on rogue_alchemist to come on and give an Investigative result, except for plenty who voted Valmark because of the Town-discard reasoning from Day 1.

--AvatarVecna voted for herself, as has been the standard initial vote for her in the past three days.

--rogue_alchemist stated that he got no result when he investigated Captain Cap, and so voted him based on that.

--CaomhintheCape posted within 20 minutes, agreeing with rogue_alchemist's vote in order to put more pressure on Captain Cap.

--Xihirli questioned rogue_alchemist's "No Result" explanation, eventually switching her vote to him.

--Captain Cap put forward a case of the plausibility of rogue_alchemist being blocked/voided, and based on his "over-eagerness" voted for him.

--AvatarVecna noted some concern about the quietness of the thread.

--Caomhin the Cape echoed much of Captain Cap's reasoning and switched their vote to rogue_alchemist.

--AvatarVecna points out that either Captain Cap is scum and rogue_alchemist is Town, or rogue_alchemist is scum and we know nothing about Captain Cap. She switches her vote to Captain Cap based on this.

--AvatarVecna releases several more ISOs, including mine.

--Twelve minutes later, Xihirli switches her vote to me, even though she states that AvatarVecna convinced her to switch from rogue_alchemist to Captain Cap.

--AvatarVecna makes a comment implying that Xihirli might be scum; Xihirli replies with (faux?) indignation. AvatarVecna clarifies away any scum implication.

--AvatarVecna switches her vote to me "for now".

--Caomhin the Cape switches their vote to PartyOfRogues to put pressure on them to speak.

--Valmark votes me to pressure me to respond to AvatarVecna's ISO.

--The Outsider states that they're willing to vote me if Captain Cap can convince him to vote otherwise.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Reading through AvatarVecna's ISO, two things stuck out as to why she's leaning Alien on me. Both of them are reasonable. The first is that I came in late on both of the first two Days, usually only after being called out for being quiet. There's... not much I can do about that, since that basically just happened again. I should have commented earlier. Too late for that.

The second is that I seem to be commenting without paying much attention to what is going on. The above overly-long play-by-play is my attempt to both rectify that behavior on this Day in myself and to point out how much information I'm gleaning from the current circumstances. I prefer to have all the information as much as possible before I act, and in this game I thought that would work best by waiting for others to post and getting the information they are giving out, but I'm probably not gleaning nearly as much as I should in each of these days.

From what I have gathered (aside from the suspicion on me), the other main conflict seems to be between rogue_alchemist claiming that he got no result from investigating Captain Cap, and voting him based on the explanation for that being that he was most likely protected by scum. Captain Cap argued back that rogue_alchemist even getting that result suggests that rogue_alchemist is scum, and voting him based on that.

Because of rogue_alchemist's claim of "No Result", AvatarVecna's explanation for what that could mean for roles, and The Outsider's initial comments on why he voted Captain Cap in the first place, I'm putting my vote on Captain Cap. I will be happy to switch my vote should new arguments or information come to light, but this is what seems to make the most sense to me given what I know at the moment.

Mmm... I don't think I like this?
Seems to me that you are specifically picking the existing argument in order to boost your opposite wagon- maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I don't exactly feel comfortable moving my vote away.

What I think is sure from your words is that you are voting on the other argument not involving you- which isn't bad, but I get the feeling what you aren't saying explicitely is "Let me get on this wagon made with seemingly sound reasoning to protect myself" while making it pass like you're taking a stance against CC.

In fact, I feel like you are just going along with what other people said without actually agreeing with it.

My three theories for why Aliens picked their kill:

- Elenna (or another alien) investigated gac and they knew he was a Wolf.
- They knew no Doctor would protect gac so the kill would go through.
- The talkative people in town trust the Aliens so they didn't care to shoot a better target.


That's basically what I meant. I was just confused at why they chose to attack Gac.

- - - Updated - - -

That's sorta the point. Instead of Aliens going after Jeen the roleblocker they thought the biggest threat to them was gac?

Oh alright, I get it now.
Imo they could have picked gac3 also because it reveals little to anybody- it could very well be that they decided to steer clear of any person that could relate to them.

In fact, I don't think they killed gac3 after investigating them- only a Town Investigative would have known they were a wolf without knowing they were powerless. If I was an alien and knew gac3 was a werewolf backup I would only kill them after I got some other wolf.

Although the opposite is true too- nip the Universal Backup before they have a chance to do anything. But personally I'd worry about the "pressing" threats.

[AvatarVecna]

I want to clarify my view on the RA vs CC: it's not that one or the other is scum. It's either both are scum, or RA waa blocked and we have no way to know for sure about either of them.

As far as gac goes I think it's one of two things:

1) gac3 is usually an active and skilled player. Going quiet could mean plotting as part of an enemy faction, and he's a good target to get rid of even if he's town instead of wolf.
2) Angel-dodging plain and simple. Aliens don't get shots as consistently as wolves/mafia so they have to make them count. Gac is a skilled player so a good one to eliminate, but he's been quiet so he's unlikely to be baned by others. Aliens were essentially betting that gac would return and be a thorn in their side if they let him live, and that a kill elsewhere is more likely to get blocked.

Final note: that post from Zelphas is a whole lotta IIoA.

[Valmark]

I should probably ask instead of just judging- Zelphas, what do you think regarding CC?

I want to clarify my view on the RA vs CC: it's not that one or the other is scum. It's either both are scum, or RA waa blocked and we have no way to know for sure about either of them.

As far as gac goes I think it's one of two things:

1) gac3 is usually an active and skilled player. Going quiet could mean plotting as part of an enemy faction, and he's a good target to get rid of even if he's town instead of wolf.
2) Angel-dodging plain and simple. Aliens don't get shots as consistently as wolves/mafia so they have to make them count. Gac is a skilled player so a good one to eliminate, but he's been quiet so he's unlikely to be baned by others. Aliens were essentially betting that gac would return and be a thorn in their side if they let him live, and that a kill elsewhere is more likely to get blocked.

Final note: that post from Zelphas is a whole lotta IIoA.

IloA?

[AvatarVecna]

I should probably ask instead of just judging- Zelphas, what do you think regarding CC?



IloA?

Information Instead of Analysis. Wolf tactic to look more useful than you are by compiling/summarizing publicly available information without commenting on it, sharing your thoughts, or guessing at other people's thoughts. It looks helpful but isn't, which is exactly what scum wants to do.

Vote counts are the most common form of this, and the onoy reason I don't ride Cao about it is because they do a vote count with basically every post in basically every game, and it usually comes woth a good bit of real thought too. A bare vote-count is a red flag.

[Zelphas]

I should probably ask instead of just judging- Zelphas, what do you think regarding CC?

I would rather not vote at all, since I don't feel like I have the information to make a complete decision. I'm missing most of the metagame, and I might simply not be able to play these games very well--it's been a long time since I've played a mafia game even IRL, and I've never played one play-by-post. Given what I can understand of the debate, I found myself leaning CC.

I feel as though I'm shooting in the dark with the information I have, but if I don't shoot I'm all-but-guaranteeing that I'll be shot (or hanged) instead. So I voted CC because that's what made the most sense out of the options currently presented.

[Xihirli]

--Twelve minutes later, Xihirli switches her vote to me, even though she states that AvatarVecna convinced her to switch from rogue_alchemist to Captain Cap.

It's almost like there's more than one scum we need to kill with fire.

[AvatarVecna]

Readlist from towniest to scummiest:

Valmark
Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist
plenty
The Outsider
CaoimhinTheCape
PartyOfRouges

Xihirli

Zelphas
AvatarVecna

[Valmark]

I would rather not vote at all, since I don't feel like I have the information to make a complete decision. I'm missing most of the metagame, and I might simply not be able to play these games very well--it's been a long time since I've played a mafia game even IRL, and I've never played one play-by-post. Given what I can understand of the debate, I found myself leaning CC.

I feel as though I'm shooting in the dark with the information I have, but if I don't shoot I'm all-but-guaranteeing that I'll be shot (or hanged) instead. So I voted CC because that's what made the most sense out of the options currently presented.

I understand the confusion- first time it can be like that (or at least, first time in a while).

What I'm asking though it's why what you heard makes you lean CC. I'll be more specific:

- you mentioned ra's claim as a factor for voting Captain Cap. Why does "no result" make you think more that CC is non-Town instead of, for example, ra getting voided?
- Why does AV's explanation make you lean against CC? She proved how ra's claim really didn't mean much then voted CC because of his reaction to ra and because of the general play.

...yeah this is all actually. You agreed with Outsider's opinion of CC and that's a perfectly normal response I think.

[Xihirli]

Well now I'm just insulted.

Not telling you which way would make me feel less insulted.

[AvatarVecna]

Well now I'm just insulted.

Not telling you which way would make me feel less insulted.

List is fixed with appropriate Xihurli positioning.

[Xihirli]

Thank you very much, you beautiful aspect of the Whispered Rot.

[Zelphas]

I understand the confusion- first time it can be like that (or at least, first time in a while).

What I'm asking though it's why what you heard makes you lean CC. I'll be more specific:

- you mentioned ra's claim as a factor for voting Captain Cap. Why does "no result" make you think more that CC is non-Town instead of, for example, ra getting voided?
- Why does AV's explanation make you lean against CC? She proved how ra's claim really didn't mean much then voted CC because of his reaction to ra and because of the general play.

...yeah this is all actually. You agreed with Outsider's opinion of CC and that's a perfectly normal response I think.

Thank you for clarifying. Both of those factors are tied into AV's explanation. From my reading of her analysis, it seemed that RA could be either scum-seer who scryed CC and found him as scum-innocent or Town-seer who was voided last night, and she seemed to be leaning towards the second option. CC, on the other hand, could either be scum-innocent who was scryed by RA (as either scum-seer or Town-seer), other scum who was scryed by a voided RA, or Town that was scryed by a voided RA. At the end, two out of the three options place CC as possible scum. The Outsider's reasoning was enough to tip my thoughts to vote CC in the end.