Percy Jackson Mafia 2

[AvatarVecna]

For whatever it's worth, a small precisation: I didn't make a full vote count. I took the most recent vote count then looked at the players that had changed votes since then. If I had done a full one I would've known who was voting who (including AV's vote judging by the time, but can't know that for sure).

Technically yeah that's a correction. But also the vote count in post 135 has Snow's AV vote in it. Hence my suspicion.

[bladescape]

The two clear powers were Vig and Baner.

Which isn't nearly as good now you've gone and said it about the baner.

[Zelphas]

Well, with Xumtiil making a claim for the Child of Hephaestus that hasn't been counterclaimed, that vastly changes my understanding of things. I mixed myself up into thinking of Xumtiil and Batcathat as a pair, so until I rethink through things I'm not that comfortable with voting Batcathat either. It may not amount to much, but I think I'll shift my vote to Valmark; they haven't done much more than reiterate what others have already said, from my reading, which seems a little odd. There's still time until EOD, though, so things can certainly still change.

[AvatarVecna]

The two clear powers were Vig and Baner.

Which isn't nearly as good now you've gone and said it about the baner.

I don't see why. We don't even have confirmation that a baner exists. Wolves already knew that there wasn't a baner in their team, and all this tells us is "if there is was a wolf baner, they would've baned cao, therefore there's no wolf baner". That's not new information for them. That's barely new information for us.

[bladescape]

I don't see why. We don't even have confirmation that a baner exists. Wolves already knew that there wasn't a baner in their team, and all this tells us is "if there is was a wolf baner, they would've baned cao, therefore there's no wolf baner". That's not new information for them. That's barely new information for us.

I was trusting you'd be the only one to work out the vague statement and since I assume you're town I was hoping that it could go under the radar, since under the radar means any baner claim is likely straight up town where now wolves might try claiming it.

[AvatarVecna]

I was trusting you'd be the only one to work out the vague statement and since I assume you're town I was hoping that it could go under the radar, since under the radar means any baner claim is likely straight up town where now wolves might try claiming it.

I don't know if you're underestimating them or if I'm overestimating them, but I have more faith in folks to figure out that a telegraphed wolf vig means no scum baner.

[Xihirli]

For the sake of having two wagons I am happy to butcher Valmark and leave the corpse out to rot.

[Elenna]

I tried to do a vote count but I'm pretty sure I missed at least one vote if not more and somehow I had Bat voting in two different places? I'm just not going to post it, but I think Bat is currently in the lead, at least.

Re: Bat's claim, I'm willing to believe he has that power but it doesn't alter my opinion of his wolfiness at all, and if he is a wolf we'll have to waste a lynch (or a vig shot I guess) on his first life sooner or later, I'm fine with it being now.

Good to know. Though I kind wished I hadn't asked, since that was apparently the wolfiest thing since Little Red Riding Hood's grandma.

Anyhow, general question: if you couldn't vote for myself or Xum, who would you vote and why?

Zelphas, probably - in the world where you're town I think they're the most likely wolf on Rogan's wagon.

Regarding possible wolves on the AV wagon, that's Xumtiil, Valmark, and Xihirli. Xum is pretty much lock non-wolf. Valmark seems like the more likely suspect given AV's arguments, but I am curious about Xi's vote:

Between Rogan and AV, I'd prefer AvatarVecna die.

Caoimhin wasn't a wagon at this point, so maybe this is NAI (unless AV is a wolf, of course), but just wondering: Xihirli, did you ever explain why you preferred Rogan over AV?

In post #135 in this thread, there is an order of events I find fishy.

Spoiler: Town!Valmark

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1) Town!Valmark does a full vote count, and now knows who everybody is voting for. Current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 3.

2) Town!Valmark wants to set up tied wagons, so he votes for Cao, pushing things to AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 3/Rogan 3.

3) Town!Valmark posts, and then notices that he has been ninja'd: Snowblaze is now voting for Rogan (where before, she was voting for AV).

4) Town!Valmark forgets that Snowblaze was voting AV previously (despite having literally 5 minutes ago done a vote count), and Valmark thinks the current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4 (Cao 3 if we count Valmark's vote). Since Valmark wants to create tied wagons for first place, he moves his vote from Cao to AV, creating new totals of AV 4/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4.

That's one possibility. Here is my theory:

Spoiler: Scum!Valmark

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1) Scum!Valmark does a full vote count, and now knows who everybody is voting for. Current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 3.

2) Scum!Valmark wants the towncred for setting up tied wagons, and is willing to bus Cao to accomplish that (possibly on the assumption that the AV or Rogan wagons will win instead, or that other scum will be able to make sure Cao doesn't get lynched). Valmark votes for Cao, pushing things to AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 3/Rogan 3.

3) Scum!Valmark posts, and then notices that he has been ninja'd: Snowblaze is now voting for Rogan (where before, she was voting for AV). This means the wagons were previously AV 2/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4, and Valmark's vote has pushed Cao to 3 votes, but not into a tie.

4) Scum!Valmark though that bussing was worth it for the towncred of making a tie, but since he can't make a tie with his vote anyway, he moves his vote off of his scumbuddy, onto AV.

5) Scum!Valmark gets called out on the above weird behavior, and defense himself by claiming he forgot that Snow had been voting AV, even though Valmark had literally just done a votecount.

This scenario makes more sense to me, personally.

FWIW my thought process about why the town situation might be plausible was basically that the swap to AV was a second post which was auto-merged in, not part of the first post, so I figured it was possible he was making it several minutes after writing out the vote count and had forgotten exactly who was where. Especially since Snow's vote would have been one of the votes he copy-pasted, not one he added himself.

I still think this is plausible, although somewhat less plausible given that Bat had spent a fair amount of time talking about the AV wagon at the start of the game. That being said, the Scum!Valmark theory is also perfectly plausible. Right now I think if there was a wolf on your wagon, Valmark is the most likely one, but I'd rather look at Bat and Zelphas first.

I wouldn't be opposed to a Valmark wagon, as an alternative to the Batcathat wagon.
I mean, if BCH is scum but honest about his role, he's going to be hard to kill, but won't have any other powers. If he's town, we don't really want to kill him.

If he's scum he'll also have the Roman power of punching through banes every other night. It's not the best wolf power, given that there may or may not be a baner and then it only matters if the baner aims right, but still.

[gac3]

Also, I'm kinda curious about what qualifies as "reasonable time" at your job. EoD is 7 am your time, right?

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Aimed at gac, obviously. Darn ninjas.

Just saw this while checking the current vote situation. End of day is 7 a.m. my time. I work third shift. If I get off after 6, then it was a particularly late day.

[AvatarVecna]

Testing...

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FWIW my thought process about why the town situation might be plausible was basically that the swap to AV was a second post which was auto-merged in, not part of the first post, so I figured it was possible he was making it several minutes after writing out the vote count and had forgotten exactly who was where. Especially since Snow's vote would have been one of the votes he copy-pasted, not one he added himself.

FWIW, I went back to check. The post was edited within a minute of initial posting. He had to edit in order to cross out the Cao vote, so it wasn't "several minutes later", it was basically instantaneously. He posted, saw he'd missed a post from snow, typed out a quick "frickin ninjas, guess I'll vote AV instead", and then crossed out his Cao vote. That whole process took less than 2 minutes.

Admittedly, my case is weaker because...yeah Snow's vote being copy-pasted means its inclusion in the vote count wasn't an active typing on his part, it was incidental. Still rubs me the wrong way.

[Elenna]

Testing...

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Testing 1 2 3

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FWIW, I went back to check. The post was edited within a minute of initial posting. He had to edit in order to cross out the Cao vote, so it wasn't "several minutes later", it was basically instantaneously. He posted, saw he'd missed a post from snow, typed out a quick "frickin ninjas, guess I'll vote AV instead", and then crossed out his Cao vote. That whole process took less than 2 minutes.

Admittedly, my case is weaker because...yeah Snow's vote being copy-pasted means its inclusion in the vote count wasn't an active typing on his part, it was incidental. Still rubs me the wrong way.

Ah, I missed the edit timestamp. That does make your case stronger. Still gonna keep my vote on Bat for now.

[AvatarVecna]

I feel like I've not seen a vote count, so I'm gonna compile that, and maybe change my vote to tie things up if that's feasible.

Batcathat (3): flat_footed, bladescape, Elenna
Xumtiil (1): Grand Arbiter
Zelphas (2): AvatarVecna, Batcathat
Valmark (3): Xumtiil, Zelphas, Xihirli

currently tied, and I can't move to push Zelphas into that tie as well...I'll remain where I am. Maybe do some ISOs on our lead wagons?

[Elenna]

I feel like I've not seen a vote count, so I'm gonna compile that, and maybe change my vote to tie things up if that's feasible.

Batcathat (3): flat_footed, bladescape, Elenna
Xumtiil (1): Grand Arbiter
Zelphas (2): AvatarVecna, Batcathat
Valmark (3): Xumtiil, Zelphas, Xihirli

currently tied, and I can't move to push Zelphas into that tie as well...I'll remain where I am. Maybe do some ISOs on our lead wagons?

I believe Jeen is still voting Bat? I’m guessing you copy pasted my last vote count and missed my edit below saying that Jeen was on Bat.

Also just a note that Valmark and Book are not currently voting, I believe.

[Xihirli]

Caoimhin wasn't a wagon at this point, so maybe this is NAI (unless AV is a wolf, of course), but just wondering: Xihirli, did you ever explain why you preferred Rogan over AV?

Spite! More letters.

[Batcathat]

I believe Jeen is still voting Bat? I’m guessing you copy pasted my last vote count and missed my edit below saying that Jeen was on Bat.

Also just a note that Valmark and Book are not currently voting, I believe.

In addition to that, I believe blade is still voting me too? I have myself at five votes, though I haven't double checked.

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I feel like I've not seen a vote count, so I'm gonna compile that, and maybe change my vote to tie things up if that's feasible.

Batcathat (3): flat_footed, bladescape, Elenna
Xumtiil (1): Grand Arbiter
Zelphas (2): AvatarVecna, Batcathat
Valmark (3): Xumtiil, Zelphas, Xihirli

currently tied, and I can't move to push Zelphas into that tie as well...I'll remain where I am. Maybe do some ISOs on our lead wagons?

Didn't you say you'd prefer voting Valmark over Zelphas and only didn't because a Valmark wagon was less likely?

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Oh, nevermind, I see you had blade voting for me, it was my sheet that was messed up again. I should stop posting right after waking up.

[bladescape]

Zelphas

I decided I don't want BCH.

[AvatarVecna]

I believe Jeen is still voting Bat? I’m guessing you copy pasted my last vote count and missed my edit below saying that Jeen was on Bat.

Also just a note that Valmark and Book are not currently voting, I believe.

I was actually going through and collecting votes, so I guess I just missed Jeen's. My bad.

EDIT: With Jeen on BCH and blade switching from BCH to Zelphas, that's a three-way tie again.

[Valmark]

Testing...

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FWIW, I went back to check. The post was edited within a minute of initial posting. He had to edit in order to cross out the Cao vote, so it wasn't "several minutes later", it was basically instantaneously. He posted, saw he'd missed a post from snow, typed out a quick "frickin ninjas, guess I'll vote AV instead", and then crossed out his Cao vote. That whole process took less than 2 minutes.

Admittedly, my case is weaker because...yeah Snow's vote being copy-pasted means its inclusion in the vote count wasn't an active typing on his part, it was incidental. Still rubs me the wrong way.

That's accurate btw. I saw the Snow post, changed votes, went back to crossing all votes, realized changing votes the last time actually did nothing. At that point I couldn't be bothered to change it further though, since there was nothing to gain as far as I know.

It's late enough that I should be committing to something already- that and the fact that I woke up way too early, might as well do something before going back to bed.

Zelphas. Unlike Bat, he doesn't have any townie points to bank on. And assuming BCH is Town his power honestly makes him someone we don't want to test out, so that the wolves either 'waste' a kill (not really a waste, but still) or are forced to ignore BatCatHat (an active player) until the end of the game.

I'm not reading Zelphas as Roman, but I am reading BatCatHat as Greek, so I'll go ahead and try to lynch the one that doesn't belong to my admittedly small pool of tentatively cleared people out of those up to lynch.

[gac3]

I was actually going through and collecting votes, so I guess I just missed Jeen's. My bad.

EDIT: With Jeen on BCH and blade switching from BCH to Zelphas, that's a three-way tie again.

This matches up with my vote count right now. For the record, have I stated what method I would use to break a tie? My normal standard is coin flip but if I've said differently elsewhere, I will go with that.

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Ninja'd but still a valid question.

[Valmark]

*knew, not know.

[AvatarVecna]

Ties are decided by a coin flip unless a role would influence it.
Day results will include a list of who voted for whom.

I've included an extra line that should be relevant going forward.

[gac3]

I've included an extra line that should be relevant going forward.

Oh my... I will be sure to include that today and moving forward. Thank you for pointing that out.

If people would like, I can go back and add this to day one.

[AvatarVecna]

My first attempt at this ISO had to be scrapped, because I got the weirdest error where every capital letter that wasn't at the start of a sentence had been transformed lowercase. This issue hasn't repeated itself, so I have no idea what happened, but it bothered me so much I just had to start over. It felt like my brain was tripping whenever i read valmark's thoughts on the av and bch wagons (like this sentence, but everywhere).

Spoiler: Valmark ISO

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I'm at work so can't reply much right now. If I saw correctly BatCatHat is free to be voted on.



I just want to specify, my roots aren't romans.

Felt a little called out being in the general vicinity of the place :p

NAI.

RL location! And yeah, first with no votes.


I'm Tuscanian, so my roots would be the Etruscans mostly.

NAI.

Alright, let's start catching up.

What reference am I not getting? If there's any?

Agreed, though it has become kind of usual to vote AV. It's an habit that really screws up reading the first wagon, as it is pointed out later in the thread.

Honestly, that does sound fun. But the amount of cohordination and trust required between multiple people of different factions makes it kinda hard to think about until endgame (talking about making gac3 win).

+1 all this.

No.

Also boooh, sore loser :p (jk)

Before re-reading the thread I thought I had forgotten some reference, but it does look completely unrelated.

Funny ten seconds though (or homewever long it was).




Both good points. Based on the quote immediately below this sentence, I'm gonna go with alignment unindicative.

NAI.

I sure hope not. While AV can die (someone has to) it being unanimous would be awful like you said, especially if based on the fun of it.



Initially I red it as 'If AV was a fool, what would they fake claim?' but the following conversation kinda ****ed it up for me. So @Rogan, what was that all about? I didn't get a clear detail of your reasoning.

I don't know if it was obvious to you all but knowing neutrals are definitely in game is a great plus to me.

OOOOOOOOH.

Poking an inactive and building a counterwagon is definitely a good move.

Not something a wolf wouldn't do, but gotta start somewhere. Though I would disagree against lynching an inactive (I think Cao posted later, still need to reread to there).

+1 to this.

What's a bathtub curve?

Wolves claiming their real role is a thing that happens, never consider anything too obvious.

Also to be fair, if I'm told to think of a set of three powers as a child of Neptune that either implies four people or that the Neptune child stops being one.
Given that it says 'Roman' powers though definitely not getting to pick Greek ones I think. I'm not super sure wether this is Towny as a wolf would know how it works, Wolfy for pretending to get it wrong, or null because distraction happens.



A what?

Also with random roles I wouldn't rely on the difficulty created by specific roles to gauge the potential amount of wolves.

NAI.

Also, I removed the Xum quote where he asked about mechanics because someone else replied (I think Rogan?) But I know recalled there was another reason for quoting him.

The stuff about Wombat replying with four powers, one of which completely unrelated to what Neptune would do in recruitment, applies to Xum too. Not super helpful but good to keep in mind I guess.

NAI.

*now. Blah blah ten words.

NAI.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that if either flips Roman we should look at the other after this exchange. Somewhat smells like faking an argument.

Goddammit I keep reading 'gac' instead of 'GA'.

Meter is? That stuff about the lenght of sentences in poetry?

I thought it was because of the seemingly obvious mech error, but I'm guessing Rogan is assuming BW knows the size of the Roman group and let it slip despite his question implying a four Roman team already.

Also, now that I thought about it, I should specify it here.

The only team one can assume from your question is a 4 Roman team unless you think Neptune children change parents after using their power. The Greek power thrown in the middle is certainly weird, but one would need to be incapable of doing 3+1 to not think about a four Roman team from your question. Doesn't help that there could very well be a four roman team.


Pretty much my thoughts, though I wouldn't call it disingenous. As the one who actually made the question, Rogan might have genuely not realized he was implying a four people team.

Now, that doesn't mean we should discard the tunneling that seems to have followed. Especially because tunneling on another player can be an effective wolf strategy.

A bit. As soon as Snow is done with that read list I saw her mention I might vote Rogan if it looks like my vote would do something good.




I've been learning so many new words this game.

With Rogan flipping town and Xumtiil the uncounterclaimed vig, this post starting by casting theoretical shade on both of them isn't a good look.

...hihirli? The laugh before the kill?

You're not helping me catch up to the thread for sure.






So, with the new votes added in it should be:
AvatarVecna 3: Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
CaoimhinTheCape 2: Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan 3: bladescape, BatCatHat, Zelphas
Zelphas 1: Book Wombat
Batcathat 2: JeenLeen, Valmark
Xumtiil 1: Xihirli
Book Wombat 1: flat_footed
Taffimai (not playing) 1: Rogan
Posted without voting: CaoimhinTheCape (have fun trying to catch up!)

Knowing this, I'mma shake things up by seeing what happens with CaoimhinTheCape forming a three-way fight. I will be awake and not busy come EoD, so I can always jump in to change things.

Unless asked, I'd like to refrain right now from expressing thoughts on who I want to see lynched. That might change how the three wagons are seen, knowing wether those on them plan to stick around or change (for example, if I wanted to get Rogan lynched then nobody would worry for AV and Cao right now).

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Oh come on, Snow.

That makes Rogan the lead either way so... Uh... AvatarVecna for precisely the same reasons as before.

I've made my case on why I think this post is scum!Valmark. There's some flaws in my theory, though, and it could very well be a simple mistake on the part of a townie who meant well.

Wait, Snow was on AV, so whoever I'm voting goes to three and the other to two.

...

Yeah it can stay like that. No point to keep changing it if I'm not gonna commit before EoD.

Part of the above.

I think it might be because it's become a trend to kill AV off early in order to remove a good player from the board, both from townies and wolves. In addition, there have been times where AV ended up doing all the heavy lifting- my guess would be, she doesn't think it's worth it to put in effort D/N 1.

That or she's got a power that works better if she's lynched/killed earlier.

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Iirc both me and another player remarked on how that may have become a bad habit (getting AV killed early).

NAI.

Oh gods three new pages. Anybody has a quick rundown while I catch up in case I can't read everything before EoD?

NAI. It wouldn't be difficult as a wolf to be like "ohhhhhh I sure haven't been paying attention can anybody tell me what's going on", but also like...D1 was pretty active. It's an understandable reaction.

Your role speculation was when you pulled out the math I think. That was you right?

Also I can't say "Yeah, this could help Town. Not gonna do it" is a motivation I appreciate. And the way I paraphrased it isn't even an hyperbole really.

+1.
Worth it to note that the potentially good role claim never came.

Agreed on the wagon.


I wasn't really wolfreading Rogan before now, and even then it's a light read. Mostly I think he got too hung up on tunneling another player based on reasons that (to me) sounds largely 'made-up' (see my point about a four Romans team being the only plausible number based on his question).

For the slight wolfread, see my comments on his quotes in this post.

I'm lost, where did this come from?

Also damn the geek gods.
Had I been awake, this might have been an idea.


I thought I had figured out what TMI means but I'm confused again.

Oooooooh.

I'm fine with this. Regardless of their alignment, Rogan has been the one the most in the spotlight D1, and I think that would give us more information.

Lynching AV or Cao would tell us more or less nothing, I think.

Wait what thing with headers?

"Lynching AV or Cao would tell us more or less nothing, I think".

I'm not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand, it's after Xumtiil's vote change that looks really suspicious. On the other hand, this is Valmark reacting to Snow's summary. I'm willing to call this NAI - it could be a wolf faking a lack of knowledge to avoid having to vote a scumbuddy into the lead for distancing, but it could also just be a townie who wasn't fully informed on the wagonomics. It's worth mentioning this post was made with 40 minutes to EoD.

Late. But I was going to say that it would have been better to risk saving Rogan. If he's a wolf he's currently a powerless wolf (at least as far as the Roman power is concerned, it'd have already worked. He would still have the Greek one).

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Also, if a wolf, it might be better to doubly mistrust role claims.

Assuming a wolf that didn't lie on his power.

This post came in the few minutes between gac putting an end to voting, but before results had been announced, and Val was already chastising people for not saving the parent-seer claimant. If this is town!Valmark who just happens to have been missing for 45 minutes and showed up just in time to do nothing, that's incredibly unlucky. However, it reads more to me like a wolf who knows exactly how Rogan is going to flip and is chewing people out over not doing the super-towny move and saving Rogan (while pretending that the only reason he didn't is because he wasn't here). I also felt this way in the moment, and immediately called it out as as scumsign if Rogan flipped town.

Someone more aware of the voting recalls wether AV had three or two people on her?

I thought there were three but uuuuuh... This kinda hard counters that.

NAI.

Mmm.

I'm not sure crossing the vote without telling anybody is a nice move for a Greek (unless I missed you saying it, in which case I'm just dumb).

Casting shade.

Perhaps predictably, Rogan as I thought (and still do) that it was the lynch that would be more telling about the most people (is that... A correct sentence, grammatically?).


Just to clarify... Rogan helping Elenna makes Rogan suspicious but not Elenna? (Obviously back to when Rogan's alignment wasn't known).

Repeating earlier opinions, and continuing to poke BCH about their Elenna suspicion. Nothing new to the thread.

Yeah this one. I figure if a player defending another player makes you suspicious of one it should have also made you (more) suspicious of the other (keeping in mind that Rogan's alignment was unknown at the time).

More of the same. There's bark here, but no bite.

Still at work, just wanted to support the idea that the Demeter child should claim (since that only benefits Town, I strongly doubt there's something like a Neutral out to get the Demeter child).

Also should we really try to figure out what got Cao targeted? I can't help but think it would help the Romans lay low if any (if I recall correctly someone was analyzing exactly that upthread).

"Should we figure out how that wolf got caught? Nah, that would tell wolves how to avoid getting caught in the future. Let's just not think about it too much."

It's waaaay too late for me, but tomorrow I don't work and there were two addressing me (AV and Elenna, right?) specifically so I'd rather take the time to reply then (than?) make people wait on me for their thoughts.


When I posted this I wanted to make a three way tie, but then noticed Snow moved on Rogan. What I didn't see, because I forgot to check, is that Snow moved off of AV. Because of that, I actually thought it was 3-3-4 and moved on AV to make a 4-4 tie. Homewever...


Like I realized shortly later, that was completely pointless. At that point though there was nothing to gain in changing again as far as I could see.

I've belabored the point about post 135 enough, I won't rehash in this ISO.

I shutted up for the night, but wanted to say- I think the opposite. If Town has more powers, sharing information at night is good- assuming the shared information doesn't include stuff like 'hey I'm the [include town role wolves want murdered ASAP]'.

+1.

I feel compelled to specify that I came in, saw Rogan's claim, went to check what would have been Rogan's Roman power, then went back to the end of the thread and gac3's announcement of the End of Day was there.

Wether I had the time to change votes I don't know, but just wanted to clarify that I was online in the last seconds before EoD.


Something anybody could've asked, but still good asking.

It'd be hilarious to be a Demeter/Ceres child without a partner.

AV explains it later on, but while tricking (or trying to) Town is definitely shady (and I also didn't like AV's move there) it can also be done to trick wolves so... Kind of a toss up, failing other clues for Roman!AV.

I like that entire explanation. And while one still needs to consider that tricking town is also a wolf's main job, failing to have any other evidence cancelling a vote is mostly a wash if there aren't meaningful consequences.

Also, while I already explained the why, I should probably specify that yeah, there was no suspicion at the time towards you, AV.


Ugh... Remind me what was NAGL?

Either way, I don't think those were mutually exclusive? Saying that either the vig or a serial killer did a good job doesn't stop you from suggesting a potential Child of Hades a course of action. Also because 'Child of Hades' immediately implies you're only referring to the Greek one, and presumably Town!Bat wouldn't try and give advice to Romans.

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While fake-claiming vig as a last ditch effort makes some sort of sense, I think it's unlikely enough based on what we know that Xum should be left alone at least for D2.

+1. There's a very small world where a Roman team with a way to protect themselves from the vig could make good use of fake-claiming vig if the Roman was going to die anyway, but I think it's not a possibility to bank on.

What was the case on Bat again? The lynch could be used to prove his role, but it wouldn't prove the alignment. If we can postpone crossing this bridge, it's probably smart.

Wait why would the baner be town cleared?
Baner is the Poseidon child with Healing Waters right?

There's a lot of words in this post, but it's mostly rehashing or literally +1ing other people's thoughts. NAGL.

For whatever it's worth, a small precisation: I didn't make a full vote count. I took the most recent vote count then looked at the players that had changed votes since then. If I had done a full one I would've known who was voting who (including AV's vote judging by the time, but can't know that for sure).

Null.

That's accurate btw. I saw the Snow post, changed votes, went back to crossing all votes, realized changing votes the last time actually did nothing. At that point I couldn't be bothered to change it further though, since there was nothing to gain as far as I know.

It's late enough that I should be committing to something already- that and the fact that I woke up way too early, might as well do something before going back to bed.

Zelphas. Unlike Bat, he doesn't have any townie points to bank on. And assuming BCH is Town his power honestly makes him someone we don't want to test out, so that the wolves either 'waste' a kill (not really a waste, but still) or are forced to ignore BatCatHat (an active player) until the end of the game.

I'm not reading Zelphas as Roman, but I am reading BatCatHat as Greek, so I'll go ahead and try to lynch the one that doesn't belong to my admittedly small pool of tentatively cleared people out of those up to lynch.

I appreciate having actual reads from Valmark.

*knew, not know.

Null.

I went in lightly scumleaning, and came out leaning harder.

I'm gonna do a Zelphas ISO before I commit to a vote change. And maybe a BCH one if I think I have time.

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Oh my... I will be sure to include that today and moving forward. Thank you for pointing that out.

If people would like, I can go back and add this to day one.

I'm not picky. With the exception of myself, the votes all lined up as everybody expected.

[Batcathat]

Now I'm feeling split between Zelphas and Valmark. Zelphas doesn't really make me lean one way or the other, though I suppose the lack of solid content could be a wolfsign in itself. With Valmark, there are a few things that feels pretty towny (even if I suspect I'm a little biased by things like actually agreeing with me about asking about Demeter/Ceres) but also a few that's pretty wolfy. I think the behavior around Rogan's flip that AV pointed out looks especially bad.

I would be willing to vote either of them (especially if the alternative is saying good bye to my extra life), but if I'm not sure who'd my first pick would be.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Zelphas ISO

Show

Okay, the game has begun, and a lot of IRL stuff happening for me, so I'll try to catch up soon. For the moment, I rolled and landed on 15, so flat_footed will get my vote until/unless things change between now and the end of Day 1.

Null.

Okay, having skimmed through the explosion of posts that just occurred, for the moment I'm going to switch my vote to Rogan, so that we at least have a tie between them and AvatarVecna to keep us from only having one real wagon on Day 1. The whole questioning of "3 wolves/4wolves" from Rogan about Book Wombat is somewhat strange (as several people have already pointed out); it may just be paranoia from town, but its the most off-sounding note in the conversation so far, so it's a place to start.

NAI. I know this is v/v wagons, so it wouldn't be hard for a wolf to tie them up for brownie points (in fact, Valmark attempted to do the same a few posts later, which I harped on him for). But this could just as easily be a townie making their first serious vote, and while it looks bad with the context of Rogan's alignment, in the moment it was fairly reasonable motivation for voting him.

I don't like large wagons appearing quickly on Day 1 regardless, but at the same time the Rogan wagon makes the most sense to me given the scant amount of information currently available. The Day 1 lynch runs heavily on meta-knowledge most of the time, and I'm really bad at meta-knowledge; with each in-game Day, I feel more comfortable making decisions and judging how people are thinking and acting.

If Rogan is town, there are almost certainly wolves on his wagon. They want Day 1 to be a mislynch, because a dead wolf immediately is a massive blow, and the wagon formed very quickly. I'm going to go ahead and say that if Rogan is lynched and flips town, my suspicion is on Elenna, though that's based almost entirely on gut feelings (I have a vague feeling that I read something earlier to make me think that way, but I'll need to double-check the thread to see if that actually has any substance).

If Rogan is wolf, there's still a possibility of wolves in his wagon, though I'd say that's much less likely given the closeness of the votes between Rogan and AvatarVecna. It would make more sense for the wolves to switch to AvatarVecna and at least tie the vote, I think (unless both AvatarVecna and Rogan are wolves, which would just be bad luck for the wolves).

I like the thought process in this post. It's gut feeling stuff, but it resonates with me.

Trying to process what Rogan flipping town means for everything in the last day. Hopefully we'll get a little bit more info from what happens tonight; I'll plan to post my leans in Day 2, to see where I'm at. Sorry there isn't much here.

Looking forward to those leans.

Bread and circuses; blood sport is good sport in Roman eyes, I suppose.

NAI.

Okay, let's see if I can put my thoughts in order. From what I understand, a "wagon" could only be called such when there are at least three people voting for that person; otherwise, it's too small and scattered to truly be a wagon. I'm wondering now if that was a personal classification I had made up in my head rather than an unspoken rule; regardless, that's what I meant when I said that AvatarVecna had the only "real" wagon at that time.

I'm going to go through the thread again within the next 24 hours and solidify where I feel with people at the moment. Right now, I'm going to place a second vote on Xumtiil; AvatarVecna's wagonomics post makes sense to me, I think, though Avatar Vecna always sounds confident and self-assured enough in these games to be credible from what I've seen.

Looking forward to those leans.

That's fair. I think in one of the games I was in, AvatarVecna legitimately voted themselves out, so I tend to assume that their self-vote is legitimate until it is rescinded. I figured tying two wagons would prompt more action than having one lead and two second-placers, but that might just be untrue.

NAI.

If AvatarVecna is scum, I’d say that one of their scumbuddies could be Elenna; they’re playing off of each other well, and it keeps the focus out towards Xumtiil and Batcathat. I could also see bladescape being on their team. Both Elenna and bladescape feel too “obvious” of a choice, though, so I’m not sure on them.

If Xumtiil is scum, I think one of their scumbuddies would be Batcathat; Batcathat is doing a lot of talking and holding an unwavering focus on Elenna, which frees Xumtiil somewhat to make their own statements. I could also see Valmark being another scumbuddy here, though there isn’t really much to tie them together that I can find.

Of course, either one of these groups could have overlapping scumbuddies among the quieter people in the thread (flat_footed, Book Wombat, Grand Arbiter). Staying out of the spotlight doesn’t work forever, but it’s not a terrible strategy if another scumbuddy is able to take and hold the spotlight safely.

I appreciate the answers, and once again they resonate with my own thoughts. At this point I don't think Xumtiil is scum, but it was still a good answer at the time.

Well, with Xumtiil making a claim for the Child of Hephaestus that hasn't been counterclaimed, that vastly changes my understanding of things. I mixed myself up into thinking of Xumtiil and Batcathat as a pair, so until I rethink through things I'm not that comfortable with voting Batcathat either. It may not amount to much, but I think I'll shift my vote to Valmark; they haven't done much more than reiterate what others have already said, from my reading, which seems a little odd. There's still time until EOD, though, so things can certainly still change.

Slight townie points for wanting time to think things through.

My initial impression of Zelphas as just flying under the radar, not really contributing thoughts to things, was totally wrong. Zelphas' ISO is full of stuff that may not necessarily be helpful for solving currently, but it's trying to be, and might turn out to be later; this is especially refreshing after reading through Valmark's ISO, which is largely rehashing things others have already said. My only hesitancy is that the full-out reads list was twice promised and never delivered on.

I'm gonna do a BCH ISO next, but I don't think I can leave my vote on Zelphas after these two. I might later move it to BCH depending on how that ISO goes, but for now I'm changing my vote to Valmark.

[Batcathat]

With me not being able to make up my mind, I might as well trust AV and vote Valmark. The chance of AV being wrong is probably lower than me being wrong on my own (the chance of AV being a wolf is higher than me being one, but still not that high, I hope).

[Valmark]

Alright... I was entertaining the idea of braving the tie for tactical advantage, but now that's no longer doable so I have to claim.

I'm Poseidon's child, Healing Waters. I was trying not to claim to avoid giving the wolves another target in the Night, but it won't be an issue if I get lynched anyway.

Hopefully they'll be as tripped up by knowing they have to play the guessing game as I will. Assuming I survive, anyway.

[Batcathat]

Alright... I was entertaining the idea of braving the tie for tactical advantage, but now that's no longer doable so I have to claim.

I'm Poseidon's child, Healing Waters. I was trying not to claim to avoid giving the wolves another target in the Night, but it won't be an issue if I get lynched anyway.

Hopefully they'll be as tripped up by knowing they have to play the guessing game as I will. Assuming I survive, anyway.

Gah, why do people I want to lynch keep claiming town roles?

With Rogan, I kept my vote where it was despite the claim and that turned out to be the wrong call. So I kinda want to trust you. On the other hand, if the wolves know that role isn't in play (thanks to a Child of Minerva, for example) that's a pretty safe claim that can't be easily tested (well, I suppose we could have Xum shoot you and telling you to protect yourself).

[Valmark]

Gah, why do people I want to lynch keep claiming town roles?

With Rogan, I kept my vote where it was despite the claim and that turned out to be the wrong call. So I kinda want to trust you. On the other hand, if the wolves know that role isn't in play (thanks to a Child of Minerva, for example) that's a pretty safe claim that can't be easily tested (well, I suppose we could have Xum shoot you and telling you to protect yourself).

Any testing would probably lead to two townies getting killed effortlessly at least so I'd rather not (assuming I'd actually do it and not try to trick the Romans) because I can't target the same person twice. But yeah, it's not a role easy to trust in this game. Especially since I'm not super sure I'm as cleared as AV claimed the baner to be.

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Also, not a town role in this game really. Especially with the existence of a vig (otherwise I think Healing Waters would be completely useless for the Romans).

[Batcathat]

Any testing would probably lead to two townies getting killed effortlessly at least so I'd rather not (assuming I'd actually do it and not try to trick the Romans) because I can't target the same person twice. But yeah, it's not a role easy to trust in this game. Especially since I'm not super sure I'm as cleared as AV claimed the baner to be.

Yeah, I suppose that's true. And I do agree that even a confirmed baner isn't completely guaranteed to be town, while Cao seems like the natural target for a wolf baner, I could see a selfish baner protecting themselves instead. Though that's probably pretty unlikely, so if you're lying, it's probably about your entire role.

I do think something feels off about your claim, even if I can't really put my finger on it. So I think I'll keep my vote where it is for now and try to silence the voice in my head screaming that I'm making the same mistake all over again.