Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

[moonfly7]

Entirely genuine

Having all available information is certainly not related to how genuine anyone's reads are

Even putting that aside, I've recently discovered that there are apparently super large mafia games with tens of players that last for a very short amount of time in which reading everything would be impossible - and yet players still manage to handle those just fine

I don't think you need to have seen everything to make well-reasoned reads

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moon can you stop saying "suspicious" and put some meat on your case

put some skin in the game my guy, if you're town that'll be much easier to find

I don't think I can say whether your a mafia or a SK, and I blame my lack of experience in the game for not being able to spot the difference. And as for meat in the game, I absolutely have, you just shot it down and didn't like it. I still think every single argument and response you've put up has seemed desperate and full of holes, and while I think the idea of "Claiming anti-SK to draw out the SK while invincible" does sound like a good idea, I don't think that's what you did. I've looked over the old posts and It's my personal opinion that we wouldn't have spent nearly as much time debating SK mechanics and possibilities if there wasn't always the difficulty of asking ourselves "why on earth are 3 people claiming abilities that target the serial killer?". I myself mentioned that having that many people mentioning it was one of the main things that had me concerned, and why I actually mentioned the possibility of multiple SK's long before Supergoof did.

And after all that time wondering and looking it over, it turns out you didn't have a role or ability linked to the Serial Killer at all, and I certainly was only originally in the conversation because their were 3 people claiming such. You see how you just not doing that from the beggining would have saved time, and how it could look like you were deliberately wasting it? At least from my perspective? And I have to wander if you considered that at all or if your response is going to be "didn't read that so I didn't know" and try to use that as a way to avoid any real defense.

[Fext]

here's my general piles

DO NOT LYNCH TODAY
AvatarVecna
Captain Cap
gac3
BladeScape

WOULDN'T LIKE TO LYNCH TODAY
Snowblaze
Batcathat
Elenna
Book Wombat

WOULD CONSIDER LYNCHING TODAY
SupaGoof
Taffimai
Metastachydium
Rogan

this list feels like it needs refining in the lower two tiers, I'm actually pretty happy with the top for now - if we had w/w wagons D1 I expect that to fall out sooner or later

moonfly isn't placed intentionally, I need to think about where he fits

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I don't think I can say whether your a mafia or a SK, and I blame my lack of experience in the game for not being able to spot the difference. And as for meat in the game, I absolutely have, you just shot it down and didn't like it. I still think every single argument and response you've put up has seemed desperate and full of holes, and while I think the idea of "Claiming anti-SK to draw out the SK while invincible" does sound like a good idea, I don't think that's what you did. I've looked over the old posts and It's my personal opinion that we wouldn't have spent nearly as much time debating SK mechanics and possibilities if there wasn't always the difficulty of asking ourselves "why on earth are 3 people claiming abilities that target the serial killer?". I myself mentioned that having that many people mentioning it was one of the main things that had me concerned, and why I actually mentioned the possibility of multiple SK's long before Supergoof did.

And after all that time wondering and looking it over, it turns out you didn't have a role or ability linked to the Serial Killer at all, and I certainly was only originally in the conversation because their were 3 people claiming such. You see how you just not doing that from the beggining would have saved time, and how it could look like you were deliberately wasting it? At least from my perspective? And I have to wander if you considered that at all or if your response is going to be "didn't read that so I didn't know" and try to use that as a way to avoid any real defense.

I mean I've claimed that one of my abilities does name the Serial Killer by name, so clearly it does interact with it?

not sure where you got the idea it doesn't at all

I just don't have any tools to "hunt them down" or whatever

[gac3]

Have you given a reason for town reading cap? I will find it if so, just wondering if it was there to be found.

[Fext]

yeah

I found their interactions with cao to be unpartnered (I've seen some people overnight claim the opposite, but I think a save attempt probably would have been less awkward?) and I found the way they got over me claiming to have lied pretty quickly and moved on with their life to be a pretty poor move if they're trying to ensure they survive the day rather than actually trying to find scum

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maybe he's just really bad mafia lmao

but I don't think so

[moonfly7]

here's my general piles

DO NOT LYNCH TODAY
AvatarVecna
Captain Cap
gac3
BladeScape

WOULDN'T LIKE TO LYNCH TODAY
Snowblaze
Batcathat
Elenna
Book Wombat

WOULD CONSIDER LYNCHING TODAY
SupaGoof
Taffimai
Metastachydium
Rogan

this list feels like it needs refining in the lower two tiers, I'm actually pretty happy with the top for now - if we had w/w wagons D1 I expect that to fall out sooner or later

moonfly isn't placed intentionally, I need to think about where he fits

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I mean I've claimed that one of my abilities does name the Serial Killer by name, so clearly it does interact with it?

not sure where you got the idea it doesn't at all

I just don't have any tools to "hunt them down" or whatever

I mean, that fact still doesn't change my opinion on the matter. Just saying "oh my ability mentions the SK" as confirmation is much different than putting yourself in the same box as AV by saying that you have an ability that hunts them, which would be just as useful as AV's kill ability, if not moreso. Just having a mention doesn't make me immediatly think your roll is heavily Anti-SK, but saying you have a hunting ability puts you directly in the same area as AV and BookWombat were at the time. Since then AV has been deemed a Jack of All Trades, which dims the paranoia a bit too, but see, that still doesn't clear you. Because at the time you didn't know that either.
I will say that at first some posts I thought you had made were made by BookWombat, which luckily, doesn't change my opinion because they only looked suspicious if they were the same person posting both(it would have looked HIGHLY contradictory) and double bonus because I hadn't wanted to post any of those theories until I'd found the proper quotes to provide evidence. So not any less on Fext, but I'm glad I didn't accidentally heap on false evidence. Fact checking people, its a good thing.

[AvatarVecna]

...I really don't wanna have to Multi-ISO already but I feel like I have to.

[gac3]

I mean, that fact still doesn't change my opinion on the matter. Just saying "oh my ability mentions the SK" as confirmation is much different than putting yourself in the same box as AV by saying that you have an ability that hunts them, which would be just as useful as AV's kill ability, if not moreso. Just having a mention doesn't make me immediatly think your roll is heavily Anti-SK, but saying you have a hunting ability puts you directly in the same area as AV and BookWombat were at the time. Since then AV has been deemed a Jack of All Trades, which dims the paranoia a bit too, but see, that still doesn't clear you. Because at the time you didn't know that either.
I will say that at first some posts I thought you had made were made by BookWombat, which luckily, doesn't change my opinion because they only looked suspicious if they were the same person posting both(it would have looked HIGHLY contradictory) and double bonus because I hadn't wanted to post any of those theories until I'd found the proper quotes to provide evidence. So not any less on Fext, but I'm glad I didn't accidentally heap on false evidence. Fact checking people, its a good thing.

I'm still pro lynching Fext but it's worth saying that I'm pretty sure AV did their claim after Fext did. So they weren't "lumping themselves with AV" as much as the other way around.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm still pro lynching Fext but it's worth saying that I'm pretty sure AV did their claim after Fext did. So they weren't "lumping themselves with AV" as much as the other way around.

I'll confirm this. I was hemming and hawing about "oh do I wanna claim I know the SK is in the game, if I do that the SK will target me". But then I saw other people mention they knew SK was in the game and I was like "oh okay SK will have to choose who to target from us, it's not just me in their crosshairs", so I provided corroborating evidence.

[moonfly7]

I'm still pro lynching Fext but it's worth saying that I'm pretty sure AV did their claim after Fext did. So they weren't "lumping themselves with AV" as much as the other way around.

Fair, and I'm not saying they were intentionally, so sorry if it comes acorss as seeming that way. Rather I'm saying that's how it ended up one way or another. But yeah, to confirm: I'm not saying Fext did it to be like AV, I am aware Fext posted first.

[Rogan]

Moon, to be fair, AV was second to claim the anti sk power. So Fext could not know she would do that.

He could have backtracked sooner. But the stated intention was to draw a kill. This would not work by admitting the lie.

@Fext
Do you admit it's possible your plan didn't work?
You keep saying your power mentioned the SK. You also say you don't have tools to hunt him. So, what kind of mentioning is this supposed to be?

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There are approximately 20 hours remaining, right?

[Fext]

it's certainly possible it didn't work, yeah

I hope it did and the lack of a kill makes me think it's not unlikely it did

but it's always possible the SK was too scared I was baiting them to go for it

it mentions the Serial Killer as a nontown faction alongside the Mafia, I refuse to say more at this time

[moonfly7]

it's certainly possible it didn't work, yeah

I hope it did and the lack of a kill makes me think it's not unlikely it did

but it's always possible the SK was too scared I was baiting them to go for it

it mentions the Serial Killer as a nontown faction alongside the Mafia, I refuse to say more at this time

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it probably didn't scare them off at any rate, you were kinda only half on my radar before the snafoo, AV was coming off as a bigger threat to the SK.
Though it looks like you might have prompted their post so either way if you aren't the SK, you likely did some good with that ploy.
And if you ARE the SK, it was a good maneuver to claim that power to draw people who could kill you out.

[Rogan]

it's certainly possible it didn't work, yeah

I hope it did and the lack of a kill makes me think it's not unlikely it did

but it's always possible the SK was too scared I was baiting them to go for it

it mentions the Serial Killer as a nontown faction alongside the Mafia, I refuse to say more at this time

I don't think the serial killer went after you. When you claimed, multiple people immediately speculated about the possibility of an immunity. More so, AV claimed to have multiple kill powers, which immediately got some suspicion for being overpowered.

If I were the killer, I would have picked AV. She simply seemed less likely to have a protective power as well.

Now, as mafia, why would I shoot AV? There were multiple players doubting her, demanding a kill or at least a check. I would keep her alive and only kill her if she got a Town scry result.

Can you follow my logic?


Your refusal to say something about your power paints a bad light on you.
Not everybody claimed, that's true, but not everybody is on the lynch block.
Some people gave details, other were being vague. But let's take a look at gac. He didn't tell us much about his power. Some hints and bits, but nothing that would enable me to make a guess with any kind of confidence. But he gave us a (vague) reason for being cryptic. His power would be weaker if everybody knew.

Now, I have to admit, gac can get away with such an answer because he didn't draw enough heat. But it's an answer and if he becomes a stronger suspect, we can ask him to fully claim his power and check if his answer makes sense.
You don't give us anything we could check in any way. Your immunity has run out. We can't ask blades to shoot you to check if you really are bulletproof. And your other answers are so vague, they hardly exist.

I am fairly confident you are not a wolf. But I definitely can see you as the serial killer.

If you are a townie, staying alive should not be your top priority. And keeping your power a secret should be even less important. If you die, we will learn them and can be sure about them. But they will be useless. So even if claiming your power would make them literally useless, you should rather claim them instead of trying to protect them.
If you intend to do so as a last resort, please remember that moving votes can take time. Especially if you have to convince someone to move those votes first.

So, my advice would be, give us some more info now. Don't claim everything if this would hurt you, but give us something to speculate and discuss.

If you are still the top wagon about 6 hours before the lynch, consider a full (power) claim. Don't say your role name, but give us the details about the abilities you have.

I am not your enemy here (unless you are the killer). You should not trust me blindly, but you should think about my advice and if you choose to reject it, give us your reasons.

[Fext]

I don't care if it paints a bad light on me because I am more than my role card lmao

my claim WILL NOT HELP YOU SOLVE ME so stop acting like it will

[moonfly7]

I don't care if it paints a bad light on me because I am more than my role card lmao

my claim WILL NOT HELP YOU SOLVE ME so stop acting like it will

Youre saying you can't see the benefit being able to look at the ability you tell us you have and seeing if we think it seems legit or made up? Or if we think it's only half the story or sounds like a Mafia power?

If so, ok, thats your point of view. But I personally think that if the tables were flipped you'd want to be able to judge the supposed town abilities for your own.

Every time I start to think maybe your just really stubborn and defending yourself in an odd way I just don't get, you always seem to post something that throws me wide. It's almost like your trying to maintain just enough suspicion at all times-

wait, could that be whats going on? I can't think of a single reason to do that, but could it be? Can anybody think of a reason why maintaining just enough suspicion would be useful? For any faction, even friendlies.

[Rogan]

I don't care if it paints a bad light on me because I am more than my role card lmao

my claim WILL NOT HELP YOU SOLVE ME so stop acting like it will

Okay... that's enough.
You are not helpful. Like, at all.

Fext your behavior is hurting town. If you are town, you make it too easy for scum to hit an innocent. The best argument in your favor is currently the fact that you claimed you wanted to draw a kill. But this argument is significantly weakened by the fact that you didn't paint yourself in a really scary light. Instead the way you acted prompted the assumption that you are protected.

Your current behavior is not much better. You fight for your life, but you refuse to really give us something to work with.

Even if a Seer appears and calls you town, I will have no reason to take anything you say serious. You simply are not willing to cooperate. As far as I am concerned, town won't lose anything valuable by your death. The worst consequence of lynching Town!You would be the missed opportunity to lynch someone else.

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Youre saying you can't see the benefit being able to look at the ability you tell us you have and seeing if we think it seems legit or made up? Or if we think it's only have the story or sounds like a Mafia power?

If so, ok, thats your point of view. But I personally think that if the tables were flipped you'd want to be able to judge the supposed town abilities for your own.

Every time I start to think maybe your just really stubborn and defending yourself in an odd way I just don't get, you always seem to post something that throws me wide. It's almost like your trying to maintain just enough suspicion at all times-

wait, could that be whats going on? I can't think of a single reason to do that, but could it be? Can anybody think of a reason why maintaining just enough suspicion would be useful? For any faction, even friendlies.

Well, a role that wants to be lynched is forbidden. A vote manipulation power would be possible, but it would have to be strong enough to matter. He could also be an innocent child who wants to see who is going to vote him before revealing. This would be not optimal for town, since it would take too much attention away from other suspects.


Vote Count
Captain Cap (3): Batcathat, Supagoof, Elenna
Fext (5): Gac3, Metastachydium, Taffimai, Moonfly, Rogan
Supagoof (1): Snowblaze
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Gac3 (1): Captain Cap

Please double check this

[moonfly7]

Okay... that's enough.
You are not helpful. Like, at all.

Fext your behavior is hurting town. If you are town, you make it too easy for scum to hit an innocent. The best argument in your favor is currently the fact that you claimed you wanted to draw a kill. But this argument is significantly weakened by the fact that you didn't paint yourself in a really scary light. Instead the way you acted prompted the assumption that you are protected.

Your current behavior is not much better. You fight for your life, but you refuse to really give us something to work with.

Even if a Seer appears and calls you town, I will have no reason to take anything you say serious. You simply are not willing to cooperate. As far as I am concerned, town won't lose anything valuable by your death. The worst consequence of lynching Town!You would be the missed opportunity to lynch someone else.

Agreeing with Rogan on this, and it's a good point I hadn't considered for jumping off of Caps wagon: Cap at least provides good discussion and argument, and actually pushes the topic forward. But with you I think we just had a rehash of the exact same argument for 4 pages. Just from a standpoint of getting things done, it isn't worth a vote for CaptainCap over you.

I will say, a downside to voting for Fext is that I don't think we can effectively clear a single person who votes for him, it seems like way to easy a way for wolves to sneak past and go "oh but I voted for fext" if he turns out to be SK or Wolf.

So just, my opinion on this is that if he does flip hostile, we don't use the act of voting for him as a core argument for clearing people.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Multi-ISO

Show

Voting Xihirli because she screwed me over in the first UPick game by being unkillable.
(Okay, we would have lost that game regardless, but still.)

Not suspicious on its own, except for how the vote isn't crossed out. Why does that matter? ...we'll get to that.

Good morning.
About the RP, how about paying as the concept you did not get? Should be save to do. And might be entertaining. Or confusing. Or both.



Do you care to explain why not breaking the tie is a sight wolfread?
Cao was tied as well. Wouldn't a wolf be more likely to vote for one of the other wagons? Both to push a misslynch and to save himself?

Of course I am biased here, since I am one of the two vote wagons myself and I don't want Xi to die early. And I won't expect Cao to vote for himself, that's AVs part.

I hope I will learn your alternative some day.

And thank you for the response. I guess we can agree that Caos vote is a reason to pay attention to him. I wouldn't have voted there, but it's still somewhat early day 1, so there is not much to go by.
I hope Cao himself will give some explanation as well.

Defending Cao from Snow, purely on "Cao could've voted me to 'save' himself but didn't". That's about as weak a townread as snow's argument was a scumread at the time, and Snow is the one that turned out to be correct.

So, you are a dwarven cleric? Pleased to meet you! Could you cast zone of truth? It would make things so much easier

So you are a cleric of Loki?

Role-fishing disguised as jokes.

If there are 5 or 6 wolves, I will eat my own hat (but not my bat or cat). I could see 4, but I don't really think so. 3 wolves, 2 neutrals. This would be my guess. There might be another neutral, but if this is the case, they will have to have more complicated victory condition than the usual survive or kill all.

"Hey, I've seen this one before!"

"What do you mean? It's brand new."

Well, if you insist... I will give you my reads. They are very weak, since I am better at mech and I don't have much mech to go by ...

I have some minor town points for Gac3 and Cao. They had a chance to put me at 3 votes but didn't. Both had a weak but valid reason to vote for me. They didn't, so if they want to misslynch me, they are subtle about it. I guess those points will only get relevant when one of us three flips or gets a Seer result.

For Wolf reads, I had the worst impression by you, Snow. Your positioning about Cao seems slightly off. But I am really not comfortable about this case and would not have gone there again if you hadn't asked for it.

More of the same.

I know and acknowledged this. It might even come back to bite me in the ass, but that's a risk I am willing to take. Worst case, one of them is a wolf and gets some town cred if / when I flip.

"And would that look wolfy if Cao flipped scum? I suppose it would oh well"

TWTBW

As for some quick reads: Rogan seems town to me, Meta seems town (but then again, I haven't played with them before so who knows). If I'd have to pick a third, Book's posts seem more helpful than not, so maybe Book.

Slight suspicion against gac and blade for posting here and not throwing down a vote. (possibly waiting to see what wagon gains traction and vote there?) AV might be in that group for just having a couple jokey posts but it's AV, they'll be back with a lot of info/longer posts soon enough, so neutral.

Don't like Snow's case against me but I don't know if that's an OMGUS reaction so I don't wanna accuse until I have more time to think.

Here we have Cao saying

"top three town Rogan/Meta/Book?

top three scum are gac/blade/AV?"

Rule Of Three: each of those lists has one scum in it. Rogan is my assumption for the first list, based on this multi-ISO, and by process of elimination, gac3 is the scum in the second list.

Okay, that's fine. There is not much to go by at this point. But that's typical for day 1.
Did you pay mafia before? On this site or somewhere else? I don't know you, but I am new-ish to the mafia community here, so that might explain things.

Downplaying the case against Cao and Snow, doesn't want to draw the new arrival's attention to that discussion.

This next one is the post that made me start doing the multi-ISO:

I agree that Cao's vote doesn't make complete sense.

IMO, if you want to build wagons, it's better to have two or three larger wagons rather than several smaller two-vote wagons. Harder for wolves to hide that way if one of the wagons is a wolf.

But it sounds like you didn't think BCH was particularly wolfy either, right? Actually, was there a reason you picked BCH over any of the other players with 1 vote on them?

Yeah, CaoimhinTheCape, a small suspicion is better than my previous joke vote.

Oh cool, Elenna was voting Cao, that means she gets towncr--WAIT A MINUTE SHE DIDN'T CROSS OUT THE XIHIRLI VOTE.

(told you we'd get to it.)

I could see that, but I can't imagine anyone having the power to tell when lies are made in the public thread, that sounds way too OP. I think the role you're referring to is something more like "once per night, make a statement in your QT and I'll tell you

Scumread by second draft error.

I don't know if I agree with Rogan's conclusion here - based on the victory condition, it does seem like there's likely to be anti-town neutrals, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's a serial killer. But this does kinda imply that Rogan has seen the town victory condition (or he's bluffing, or Unavenger posted the victory condition somewhere and I missed it).

Cao's win condition reads almost identical to mine:

"Ywtgiykehconcptfh, aalomoytia."

"You win the game if you kill every hostile character or nothing can prevent this from happening, and at least one member of your team is alive."

CaoimhinTheCape, you are Cecil Palmer, a REPORTER and a member of the MAFIA. You win the game if you kill every hostile character or nothing can prevent this from happening, and at least one member of your team is alive.

I would imagine the only people whose victory conditions don't include that line are maybe the SK/survivor? And even that's in question since the survivor claimant says they seem to think they can win with the SK?

So keeping that in mind, Elenna is clearing Rogan based on him "knowing the win condition", even though 1) he only implied things about it that would be implied to either team (ie that there is a non-scum hostile in play), and 2) the win con in question is basically identical for both town and scum. This isn't actually evidence in favor of Rogan being town. Instead this is possible evidence of Elenna/Rogan being w/w.

So, town points to Rogan, I guess? I feel like clearing people based on "do they know the victory condition" is a bit sketchy rules-wise, though.

...

If it weren't for the above post about the victory condition, I'd be voting Rogan here.

Immediate waffle-wolf.

Town points for Elenna. She seems to know the exact wording of the victory condition as well. I agree it does not need to be a serial killer. It feels more likely to me, since a neutral with a specific victory condition like "kill the child of Ariadne" could result in a strange endgame. But this is not a hill I am willing to die on. I don't have enough info to be sure.

To be fair, Cao is suspected by multiple persons, including you. So checking him would be checking someone who might be a wolf.
I am not sure he is town either, I only have sight lean and I am biased about this. It's still enough for me to prefer a non lethal check, but I agree there are no really good targets right now, so going for Cao is a logical move. His flip could shine some light on other players, like Snow or Xi (and for everyone not me, it will shine some light on me).

Ohhhhhh don't worry guys! Elenna rolled all 18s for her character when the DM wasn't looking, but Rogan swears he saw it. And what a coincidence, Rogan also rolled all 18s, with Elenna swearing she saw that too! I'm sure we can trust them.

Hm... possible. I am not going to lock Elenna as town for this knowledge. But I think it's a point in her favor. I wonder if we will learn the win con when a wolf dies.

In PJ there were Neutrals with specific win conditions, but they had to finish their con before the end of the game. So I am under the impression that this would be the norm. Keeping a game going when the sole question is if a certain Neutral will win or lose seems unlikely to me.

Backs off a bit on that point as soon as somebody called him out on it.

That's very interesting. Now, the easy way to be 100% sure would be to be the Killer yourself, but I strongly doubt you would be bold enough to confirm your own existence.
Are you a survivor? A neutral which can win with either side, including the killer?

Rogan is helping deflect the discussion onto SK stuff away from the Cao wagon.

Bladescape being annoyingly cryptic. Not that unusual for him. I'd like to know what these reasons are but I suspect he's not going to say.



I strongly suspect at least one of them is neutral. That being said, two people with what sounds like specifically anti-SK powers is a lot, given that SK it's already quite a hard role to win with. Probably the SK also has other strong powers (similar to last game when they were immune to all kills except the lynch). Even so, AV did win as SK last game, but that's just because AV's good - I felt like the balance last game was fine, the S!K certainly didn't need two other people countering them. Although AV didn't actually say that their kill only works on the SK. Maybe AV is targetting a larger group of people and their role just happens to specifically mention the SK.

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Oh, and my QT still isn't working.

Casting shade on bladescape (who I think is confirmed townie-vig?), and both the people claiming to be anti-SK. NAGL.

If you flip town, the players voting you should be checked for a hostile motive and everyone should keep an eye on me to see if I have too much information.
If you are scum, everyone you could have pushed to 3 votes should be checked for a possible team. Yes, this includes myself. I know I am town, but everyone else can't be sure.

Note how similar this is to what Cao was saying earlier. Also, I know Rogan can easily do that "dont give me credit when I dont deserve it" towncred thing (ie "gain towncred by denying yourself other towncred").

And, as Snow mentioned (see below) if you flip scum, Elenna is very unlikely to be in your team. Same for AV and Meta. They could easily change their vote, since they didn't have much reason to vote for you.
Flipping you will only prove your alignment, but it will give hints for multiple other players.

Regarding the read list, many entries are short compilation of info without a read. That's not surprising, since there are not many things to go by and if I had to do a read list, many entries would be "no idea" as well.
But along with the TL;DR part, it looks a bit like you're trying to make up for the lack of real contributions with a lot of empty words.

This part is actually a good call-out from Rogan on Cao prior to the flip...but I know that Rogan can drive a bus so.

The "Bat do you really want to kill me?" was a joke reply to a vote I don't take terribly serious. But your reading is partly right. I think I am bad at hiding my allies. See love letter. When my joke / distance vote for AV suddenly gained traction and put her in the lead, I was getting nervous. So keeping wolf!me alive might be more helpful than lynching me immediately.

Lol

The rest of this very long post is delving into the SK stuff, drawing attention away from the Cao mess.

See my post above. I especially don't like that it would give no info on either of you. You're endorsing my lynch without voting me, which seems like you don't want to get blood on your hands.



High-Key don't like Captain Cap saying my death would be a source of intel but none of the main wagons attracted him.







You said it, not me. That only makes my lynch less helpful.

Tentative clear on CC/BCH for this post.

I Agree there is not that much going for your kill. I agree about the conclusions your flip would yield. In fact, I said something similar myself. But 8 players not commenting mean about half the players are commenting.

I would love a good alternate, yielding even more info or having a better chance of hitting scum. Or at least more people really committing to a read on you. But I am not a Lvl20 wizard. I can't cast wish.


Your explanation about the read list is nice to have. I don't 100% agree about snow, but I can see your point. I also doubt you are allies, so putting her as Town makes me think this is an honest read.
An ideal mafia player definitely could have handled the original list better, but nobody is perfect.

You remain a Town lean for me and I would rather lynch someone else.
I also acknowledge that there are few real alternatives. Snow is possible. Anybody else?

"There's not much going for your kill other than info on half the players, and I'm still townleaning you even though I have no better ideas on who to lynch"

NAGL.

Since there isn't much activity at the moment and considering the state of affairs, it is indeed likely we will loose Cao. The only realistic way to change this would be one of his voters to switch to snow.

Be honest: this reads like it should be posted in scumchat, doesn't it?

Let me recap:

Fext, AV and Book claim neutral (goodish).
Cao was Wolf.
There probably are 2-3 wolves left.
There is 1 SK.

16 players at start
That's 12 non-neutral.
Worst case 8 Town.

AV said she wasn't Anti SK, which I assumed to mean she can win even with a living SK. Which would make sense for a neutral.

I think Fext meant to say he was neutral when he said book also claims neutral.

Both interpretations could be wrong.

Rogan reading "my powers arent anti-SK" as "my wincon isn't anti-SK" is very strange. Feels like casting shade for shade's sake.

This next post is why I'll be voting Elenna:

Since everyone is posting night talk anyways, I guess I might as well join in.

If anyone bussed Caoimhin, I think it's most likely to be AV or Taffimei. Maybe BCH. I'd suspect BW of bussing, maybe, but they're the uncounterclaimed Survivor.
@Snowblaze: is there a reason you don't think Taffimei was bussing?

Suuuuuuure.

Of the Cao voters, I'm inclined to think moonfly is town. Partly because it seems unusual for a wolf to make a counterwagon on someone Cao was pretending to townread, but mostly just gut feeling. Their posts feel like someone who is actually trying to wolf hunt.

I agree with those that have said the Captain Cap/Caoimhin interaction feels like planned distancing. Specifically the part where Cao keeps pushing Cap to take a side, and then Cap 'gives in' and votes Snow. Seems like it could be an excuse to avoid blame for defending a wolfbuddy.
I also feel like there were others not picking a side but Cao was focused on Cap doing so. Would have to go back and reread to see if that makes sense.

Elenna casting aspersions on CC in the night.

I seem to remember that Rogan had some stuff I didn't like near the start of the day. Going to have to ISO him to see if that feeling holds up. He did hint at knowing the victory condition, but it seems the wolf victory condition also hints at an SK so I'm not sure how much weight to put on that.

Some very basic shade cast on Rogan.

[Elenna ISO cut for length]

So, there have been some points for every alignment except true neutral.
For the moment, I think I can remove her from the list of possible SKs, but that's not a very confident read.

I could also see some amount of OMGUS in my read. But I end up with a slight wolf lean at the moment. I will check her night posts as well to see how they change this read.

- - - Updated - - -

(My read was also influenced by gacs vote)

[Elenna ISO cut for length]

I don't see anything significantly townie. Nothing strongly scummy either, but there are multiple small points I don't like.
All in all, a not very confident wolf lean and the lingering fear I am too easily influenced by the way people read me.

Has basically nothing to say about Elenna except "maybe not SK". It doesn't escape my notice that Elenna does the little "Rogan sus?" thing, and then three hours later Rogan has a full Elenna ISO going that has nothing to say.

My guess, they've noticed that Elenna/Rogan/Cao are all defending each other D1, and these are distancing attempts.

This gets us to the start of D2. D1 sees:

1) Cao townreading Elenna and Rogan
2) Elenna/Rogan townreading each other off of barely anything that was later revealed to be literally nothing
3) Rogan defending Cao pretty consistently
4) Elenna voting Cao without crossing out her old vote
5) Elenna waffling a lot

N1 sees Elenna and Rogan turn on each other very slightly, but don't end up having much to say at all. It could be townies unsure and not wanting to give really strong reads that might be wrong, but I read it more as wolves who've realized they've spewed each other and need to get some quick distancing in. How we got this far into D2 without doing much discussion of the D1 scumlynch beyond "lynch Captain Cap" is beyond me. If we lynch Elenna, and she flips scum, Rogan is next. If she flips town, Captain Cap is next.

Elenna

Time for me to actually look at the Meta/Fext ISOs to see which I suspect more of SK nonsense.

AV right now

[Rogan]

So just, my opinion on this is that if he does flip hostile, we don't use the act of voting for him as a core argument for clearing people.

Actually a good point in case he flips wolf (which I still doubt). Maybe his wolf buddy (buddies? ) were drawing heat, while having stronger powers than Fext? So he could sacrifice himself to stall the discussion and provide a bus target.

[AvatarVecna]

Current reads:

BladeScape: Locktown. They've claimed the village-aligned kill on Xihirli, and there's been no counterclaim. It would be a very strange world where bladescape is scum.

Snowblaze: Locktown, less so than bladescape only for lack of narration-evidence in their favor. Drove the bus that killed Cao from start to finish.

Batcathat/SupaGoof/Taffimai/gac3/Moonfly7: Still unsure how to feel about these players.

Book Wombat: Light scum lean. I didn't really mention it much while doing the rogan/elenna/cao ISO, but BW comes up a lot in there, and it's usually in a vaguely positive way. Possible pocketing by rogan, but might be a 4th scumbuddy?

Captain Cap: Hard scum lean. If Elenna flips town, this is the next lynch, but I'm fairly confident in this Rogan/Elenna pairing.

Metastachydium: One of my top picks for SK.

Fext: One of my top picks for SK. Additionally, not being particularly helpful of late.

Rogan: Hard scum lean. Equal to Elenna but gives less info (he talks a lot but doesn't say much, if you catch my drift).

Elenna: Hard scum lean. Equal to Rogan but I think their lynch tells us more.

[Rogan]

Rogan: Hard scum lean. Equal to Elenna but gives less info (he talks a lot but doesn't say much, if you catch my drift).

Well, I am still sitting on the result of my night action. I have made some hints, but I don't want to drop the bomb too soon.
Having too much info is hindering my ability to speculate.

But I think, your read list and your ISO is very interesting. Please go ahead.

[AvatarVecna]

Well, I am still sitting on the result of my night action. I have made some hints, but I don't want to drop the bomb too soon.
Having too much info is hindering my ability to speculate.

But I think, your read list and your ISO is very interesting. Please go ahead.

See and I was just talking about D1, before any night actions might've exacerbated the issue.

[Rogan]

See and I was just talking about D1, before any night actions might've exacerbated the issue.

Well, if you insist... *shrug*

[Elenna]

I don't really like Fext's vagueness either, and I still don't understand why they initially pretended to be neutral. But I maintain that it doesn't make sense for wolf!Fext or SK!Fext to draw attention to themselves by revealing that their D1 claim was a lie.

Regarding Cap's plan:

The main advantage is that if Cap is town and the person he targets is a wolf, then we confirm Cap is town and also catch a wolf without mislynching Cap.
If Cap is town and the person he targets is also town, then Cap gets mislynched but we have good reason to think the target is town, which might save us a second mislynch down the road.

On the other hand, if Cap is a wolf, then using Cap's plan will delay us lynching Cap for two days (a significant amount of time in a game with several possible kills), plus it will likely result in an extra mislynch (especially if Cap picks his target). Plus, we lose out on the information we would get from lynching wolf!Cap, which means that a non-Cap lynch today is arguably less likely to find a wolf than a lynch after lynching wolf!Cap.

Based on this, if we think Cap is likely to be a wolf, we should just lynch him. Cap's plan really only has advantages if he's town, and has several disadvantages if he's wolf.

But this assumes we don't have any other wolf candidates to lynch today. If we have a stronger wolf candidate than Cap, obviously we lynch them today and lynch Cap tomorrow.

---

An unrelated interesting thing I noticed while doing a Cao ISO:

Translating that to reads:
Rogan, Snowblaze as Town (I don't know that I could be more clear on that).
Elenna as Town lean, not as strong as Rogan/Snow.
SupaGoof as No Info. (literally nothing)
AV, Xi, Captain Cap as Neutral. (lack of useful content)
Blade was a small Wolf Lean.
BCH, Book Wombat as Wolf lean.
gac3 vote (implying I think he's Wolf).

I guess I didn't need to reiterate my thoughts but I wanted to order them from Towniest to Wolfiest. I have no info to go on for my Neutral reads, seeing as there's so little info. I gave you 3 people I lean town on, 3/4 I find Wolfish. And the newer players I left out, seeing as I won't vote them today.

Cao puts three people as towny here. I know I'm town, and I'll be shocked if Snow isn't town given how D1 went. That only leaves Rogan. Does wolf Cao really not put a single fellow wolf in his towny list? I guess it's possible, if I'm reading the times right this was only ~7 hours before EOD and he knew he had a good chance of being lynched.

Still need to do a Rogan ISO but I remember thinking D1 that I'd vote him if it weren't for the "knowing the town victory condition" thing. Since it turns out the town and wolf victory conditions are exactly the same, that's no longer something I'm taking into consideration, so he's pretty suspicious to me again.

- - - Updated - - -

@AV: I'll agree that I was defending/waffling on Rogan earlier, but the rules of this game clearly state that the vote that is counted is the last vote that is not crossed out. I meant to vote for Caoimhin and I did vote for Caoimhin (as you can tell by the D1 vote count).

[Rogan]

Cao puts three people as towny here. I know I'm town, and I'll be shocked if Snow isn't town given how D1 went. That only leaves Rogan. Does wolf Cao really not put a single fellow wolf in his towny list? I guess it's possible, if I'm reading the times right this was only ~7 hours before EOD and he knew he had a good chance of being lynched.

In my opinion? Yes, he didn't. I don't think you are a wolf anymore (for reasons), I would be shocked if you were the killer and I know I am town. Snow doesn't make any sense as a wolf either.
But since I can't demand you simply trust me, here is my suggestion for why Cao put me there: My whole day 1 stance regarding Cao was based on the fact that I liked he didn't vote for me, while I didn't like Snows case for him. Cao knew I would continue to protect him as long as he kept me as town.
As town, I am simply too easily swayed by the way people read me. You attack me? I fight back. You protect me? I trust you.

Until I have more trustworthy info again. Which I happened to gain last night. You will love it when you here it. AV will cry.

[moonfly7]

In my opinion? Yes, he didn't. I don't think you are a wolf anymore (for reasons), I would be shocked if you were the killer and I know I am town. Snow doesn't make any sense as a wolf either.
But since I can't demand you simply trust me, here is my suggestion for why Cao put me there: My whole day 1 stance regarding Cao was based on the fact that I liked he didn't vote for me, while I didn't like Snows case for him. Cao knew I would continue to protect him as long as he kept me as town.
As town, I am simply too easily swayed by the way people read me. You attack me? I fight back. You protect me? I trust you.

Until I have more trustworthy info again. Which I happened to gain last night. You will love it when you here it. AV will cry.

I will admit, I don't really suspect rogan, but I do think this whole bit here feels a tad weird to me.

That being said, dont keep us in suspence man, tell us what you got!

[AvatarVecna]

Well, I am still sitting on the result of my night action. I have made some hints, but I don't want to drop the bomb too soon.
Having too much info is hindering my ability to speculate.

But I think, your read list and your ISO is very interesting. Please go ahead.

Sit on it too long and you risk not enough people seeing it to actually accomplish anything with the information today.

You're not gonna get tears from me if you prove me wrong on something - I'm wrong about lots of things and somehow manage to keep on living. Being wrong is part of the game. But so far today all I've seen is endless arguments about who the SK might possibly maybe be, spurred on by two people who honestly look like Cao's scumbuddies. "Ive got a scry result im sitting on but I dont wanna claim to be seer" is pointless because just saying this little has already outed you as having an information-gathering power anyway, and because it's so easy to say, just saying it isn't proof of anything. Give us something to test, make an argument against my conclusion, or else just stop with the "AV is wrong for secret reasons im not gonna say". You're already on Fext's case for being unhelpful, don't be a hypocrite.

[Rogan]

AvatarVecna/Captain Cap/Supagoof/gac3/Book Wombat/Xihirli/bladescape/Taffamai

All wolves in that group?

The answer is yes. All living wolves are in this group. This is my night action speaking! And AvatarVecna just manged to jump to the very front of my scum list. Her ISO is completely fine on the surface, but if you know what I know, you see the pattern.
She is calling me worse than you (Elenna), but pretends I would not give more Intel. In fact, she wants to keep everyone guessing if I am really a lie detector or a lying lier who lies (as Xi would formulate it). You flipping town would not say anything about me. The other way round? My flip will clear half of the player base at once.

So, I might propose a thunderdome. Kill AV or kill me. I am reasonably sure both outcomes will help town. But literally never vote for anybody my answer cleared, unless you are very sure it's the serial killer.

I advise you all to look closer at Book Wombat. He seems to be the perfect bus target in AVs list. Scummy enough to be noticeable (instead of survivor clear) while at the same time being in no real danger of being the next lynch / kill.

[gac3]

Aw man. I was going to tell Rogan that if he told me his, I'd tell him mine but then he went and ruined the fun

[Rogan]

Bam!
The bomb has been dropped.
I was waiting since nobody was in danger of dying, except Fext, who still could be the serial killer. And I WAS making sure to say he is not a wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

Aw man. I was going to tell Rogan that if he told me his, I'd tell him mine but then he went and ruined the fun

Well, you can still tell me yours. It might back up my points.