Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

[Xihirli]

Why are we assuming Libro was the kill target?

[totadileplayz]

Why are we assuming Libro was the kill target?

Is that the correct interpretation? I see it as the doctor protected X, x was not harmed thus he did not succeed in saving X. Which results in the doctor not being responsible for stopping the night kill.

[Xihirli]

The doctor is claiming that they did not save libro’s life last night, so whatever ended the kill was not then. The child of dionysus roleblocked Xihirli, so that’s a possible kill stopped. There is also the possibility that the two overlapped naturally

I now see your reading, I read it as "the doctor did not protect Libro last night"

[Valmark]

Is that the correct interpretation? I see it as the doctor protected X, x was not harmed thus he did not succeed in saving X. Which results in the doctor not being responsible for stopping the night kill.

It’s an undescribed neutral. Don’t really know how to handle that at this point with so many neuts being claimed.

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The doctor is claiming that they did not save libro’s life last night, so whatever ended the kill was not then. The child of dionysus roleblocked Xihirli, so that’s a possible kill stopped. There is also the possibility that the two overlapped naturally

Honestly I'm more inclined to lynch this new neutral who hasn't talked about any role then Snowblaze.

Also just so we're clear, you're saying that there is a child of Poseidon with the protection power that targeted Libro last night and got as a feedback that Libro wasn't targeted at all?

[rogue_alchemist]

So Apogee may know more, but I was vortexed? Last night.
I got a "wave of diziness" and then ended up targeting myself. Luckily I have a passive power that doesn't cause harm.
I am unsure if it was a vortex because I apparently ended up targeting myself? I confirmed with gac that this was not because AV was already dead.
I only mention this to say there does seem to be a vortexer and they targeted me so that wasn't the reason for no wolf kill. Apogee has already confirmed that Xi was targeted by a child of dionysis voider and that AV was killed by a vig. I would say in light of this information we need to kill Xi. Snow may be a liar and needs to die, but it seems we have a confirmed person who was voided. I scumread Xi from the beginning and nothing she has done since has changed my mind (though I will play ball). My strongest non-apogee town read is non-existant as there are too many neutral claims and little island camps. We haven't had any accurate wolf hits yet to see who is wolf buddies and who is town. Apogee feels really strong town, but that is all I have.

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Going back through the OP, It was either induce madness and that has RNG that I was unlucky enough to get myself (which seems weird, but I guess technically possible), or some unnamed neutral role power. I could see it being Strategic Placement, but I have reason to think otherwise.

[bladescape]

So Apogee may know more, but I was vortexed? Last night.
I got a "wave of diziness" and then ended up targeting myself. Luckily I have a passive power that doesn't cause harm.
I am unsure if it was a vortex because I apparently ended up targeting myself? I confirmed with gac that this was not because AV was already dead.
I only mention this to say there does seem to be a vortexer and they targeted me so that wasn't the reason for no wolf kill. Apogee has already confirmed that Xi was targeted by a child of dionysis voider and that AV was killed by a vig. I would say in light of this information we need to kill Xi. Snow may be a liar and needs to die, but it seems we have a confirmed person who was voided. I scumread Xi from the beginning and nothing she has done since has changed my mind (though I will play ball). My strongest non-apogee town read is non-existant as there are too many neutral claims and little island camps. We haven't had any accurate wolf hits yet to see who is wolf buddies and who is town. Apogee feels really strong town, but that is all I have.

Do we have confirmation that it was 100% just the Vig who targetted AV? If you have confirmation that it isn't possible a wolf and Vig kill on the same target, this is definitely the best option for the lynch.

Also is it possible the Hard to Kill Ares child got hit?

[JeenLeen]

Your power feels a bit strange. It's a scry for Children of Zeus (this is something I would expect) but instead of killing, you only block them? I could imagine you are faking this part again, in order to appear as a lesser danger than you really are for a child of Zeus.

<snip>

Now, one last question.
Why should we believe you are not going to switch sides after you got the wolf child of Zeus killed? Killing a wolf is better done by Town, but killing a town is easier for a wolf.

To the first part: I have it worked out tonight to scry the person who gets a charge of every power targeting them. They can confirm my power D3. (Yeah, it wastes my scry tonight, but it gives me a way to confirm I'm not a direct risk to the Zeuslings, and to confirm I'm really neutral. So seems worth it.)

To the second one: you shouldn't. I will 100% stab Town in the back if I need to to win. I don't say this to get y'all to vote for me, but just to be honest. Since if I lied, nobody would reasonably believe me anyhow.
HOWEVER, I doubt the wolves would risk contacting me, in case I betray them for survival purposes. I also think the wolves don't have a good situation to blackmail me, since them killing me instead of a townie make it harder for them to win. I'm basically hoping Town (with Apogee's network) is in a strong situation, and thus will elimiante the wolves eventually (including likely one Zeusling). I just hope that the other one dies in the meantime by a random NK or mislynch.
Also, if I join the wolves immediately, that will likely get discovered, and I'll wind up getting killed before the Zeuslings all die.
Note two that the answer about my power factors into this. I have a weak power that is designed particularly to find and screw over Children of Zeus, but I can't kill them, and this can be confirmed by D3 (assuming no voider or vortexer screws it up and that my target doesn't get NKed).

So Apogee may know more, but I was vortexed? Last night.
I got a "wave of diziness" and then ended up targeting myself. Luckily I have a passive power that doesn't cause harm.
I am unsure if it was a vortex because I apparently ended up targeting myself? I confirmed with gac that this was not because AV was already dead.
I only mention this to say there does seem to be a vortexer and they targeted me so that wasn't the reason for no wolf kill. Apogee has already confirmed that Xi was targeted by a child of dionysis voider and that AV was killed by a vig. I would say in light of this information we need to kill Xi. Snow may be a liar and needs to die, but it seems we have a confirmed person who was voided. I scumread Xi from the beginning and nothing she has done since has changed my mind (though I will play ball). My strongest non-apogee town read is non-existant as there are too many neutral claims and little island camps. We haven't had any accurate wolf hits yet to see who is wolf buddies and who is town. Apogee feels really strong town, but that is all I have.

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Going back through the OP, It was either induce madness and that has RNG that I was unlucky enough to get myself (which seems weird, but I guess technically possible), or some unnamed neutral role power. I could see it being Strategic Placement, but I have reason to think otherwise.

Did you claim a power in all that, which makes it look stronger Xi is the killer?
Sounds like you meant to target AV, but were vortexted to target yourself. Which means that the kill was moved from aiming at you to AV. Is that right?

Also is it possible the Hard to Kill Ares child got hit?

@Apogee: are you in contact with this Child of Ares? Have they told me what answer gac3 gave when they asked about this?
Or, Child of Ares: ask about this if you don't already know.

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Anyways I have a claim from the vig for it being their kill. They didn’t claim that earlier, so didn’t tell them to stay clear of AV.

While believable -- can't fault someone for killing AV, in general -- it seems rather odd for a Town Vig when there's questionable neutrals (Snowblaze) and folk acting suspicious (Valmark, maybe Xi).
What does seem odd is that the vig wouldn't tell the Town Network Coordinator who they were targeting, lest it be someone with a good claim or Apogee's sibling.

This really sounds like a wolf who felt like they needed to join the Town Network and claim honestly, lest they get found out later, or wanted it as a way to infiltrate the Town Network and get towncred, and is now covering up for it before they get discovered and "outted" (looks more honest).

[JeenLeen]

Induce Madness: You are able to change people's perceptions and intentions by inducing minor madness. Choose one person and redirect who their power targets that night.

Maybe everybody else already got this, but I was re-reading the Roles to try to figure out what the passive powers were, and saw this.
Based on what rogue_alchemist said, he was likely redirected by a Dionsysian, not vortexed by a Zeusling.

So one Diosnysian voided Xi, and one redirected rogue_alchemist.

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ADD-ON: blargh. I missed that rogue_alchemist literally said that power made sense in the add-on to his post.
But why do you think it was RNG to yourself? It sounds like the redirector chooses who it redirects to.

[Xihirli]

I would like to advance one additional possibility:

Maybe the one who claimed Vigilante is... lying? And is a child of Zeus but... is also a wolf?

Like when someone is like "trust me, I'm not a wolf! Look, I killed the seer!" I think maybe a few more people should question that.

[Elenna]

It's time I come honest to the Town. I already told this to Apogee, Snowblaze, and another person earlier this Day, but I'm actually the Champion of Hera.

I fakeclaimed Champion of Zeus because I didn't want the vigilante to kill me N1. Hoping that N2 onward there's a better target, e.g., someone likely a wolf. I was hoping the misinfo, or giving some hooks, might help me catch a wolf (or Zeusling), but it didn't work. At this point, I think the misinfo about the number of neutrals will hurt the town instead of being indifferent, so coming clean.

I still think my best bet is to ally with the Town. My hope is that we find the NKer and kill them (as a wolf Zeusling), and that the wolves randomly kill the other Zeusling before the game ends.
So Town Zeusling, I do want you dead, but I think it probably better you spend time killing others, because I don't really have any means to help kill you beyond my vote.

Okay, yeah, this sounds plausible. We might need to look at killing Jeen at some point, since there's a good chance they want at least one townie dead, but I don't think that should be a priority today.

I agree with Rogan, it's unusual for a neutral like this to have a scry+block for their target, and not a scry+kill. Especially because this role is harder than the typical "kill X player" neutral due to (probably) having two targets. But we'll see how Jeen's proposed test turns out.

Jeen, any particular reason you assume that one of Zeus' kids is town. Not saying I think they're both wolves, just curious if you have any extra info that makes you sure about it. Although that might be the kind of information that's better told to only Apogee.

Though I reckon the probability that both the vig-Zeus and a Demeter-kid both RNGed as wolf is exceptionally low... so if one of them flips wolf, the other is probably town just due to probability. Not proven, but literally probably Town just via the likelihood of things.
Finally using my Stats degree in a game. Yay.

Apogee's silence thus far is making me more suspect of him. BUT it is the weekend, and I know I'm usually more quiet during the weekend than not, so I'm willing to give benefit of the doubt to him. E.g, that he's silent due to real life, not because he's a wolf and realizes that something he needs to say will look bad for him or a scumbuddy.

A reminder that Apogee said their sibling received narrator confirmation that Apogee is town. So the only way Apogee could be a wolf is if
1) Apogee lied about the narrator confirmation, and somehow convinced their (townie) sibling not to call them on it.
2) gac lied to the sibling
3) The sibling is also a wolf - theoretically possible that both of them could roll wolves, but I imagine the probability is quite low.
None of these seem likely to me.

That being said, the probability of the vig being a wolf is independent from the probability of a child of Demeter being a wolf, unless I'm misunderstanding how gac decided the wolf roles. So if vig flips wolf, that doesn't change anything about the (extremely low) probability that Apogee is a wolf.
That is, P(Apogee is wolf | vig is wolf) = P(Apogee is wolf), and also P(vig is wolf | Apogee is wolf) = P(Vig is wolf), because the two events are independent.
Yay stats!

Here is a serious question though why is it that the list changes to other emojis?

You can change it by clicking the "Post Icons" options under the reply box. Maybe you clicked that by accident? If not, IDK.

Anyways I have a claim from the vig for it being their kill. They didn’t claim that earlier, so didn’t tell them to stay clear of AV.

Good to know. Although I agree with Jeen, a vig not checking their kill with the town network leader seems weird (and wolfy). Too easy to screw up and kill someone important, like what actually happened.

@gac: If the player with Lightning Control was a wolf, would the wolves get two kills a night (a vig kill and a regular wolf kill)? Or would they just get one? I assumed the first one but some people seem to be assuming the second.

It’s an undescribed neutral. Don’t really know how to handle that at this point with so many neuts being claimed.

... huh. So between Jeen's claim and this, we're back to five neutral claims. I still think one of them is a wolf, and I still think Snowblaze's claim is suspiciously weird.
Incidentally, the role list includes Huntress of Artemis as a possible neutral role, and I don't think we've seen that claim yet? So maybe that's your other neutral. Although of course it's not certain that Huntress of Artemis is actually in the game.

The doctor is claiming that they did not save libro’s life last night, so whatever ended the kill was not then. The child of dionysus roleblocked Xihirli, so that’s a possible kill stopped. There is also the possibility that the two overlapped naturally

So gac specifically told the baner that nobody tried to kill Libro last night? Unusual, but I'm willing to believe them for now, since presumably you only received one baner claim.

So that leaves the possibilities
1) Wolves also targeted AV last night. Possible, given it's AV, it's not exactly unusual for wolves to try to kill them N1.
2) Wolves targeted the child of Ares with Hard to Kill. Not sure if they'd find out about losing a life or now.
3) Xihirli was the wolf who did the kill and was voided.

Hmm. And I didn't like Xihirli's D1 no lynch suggestion, either.
I still think Snowblaze is slightly more suspicious, mostly because AV is a common N1 kill target, but I definitely want them both dead eventually.

So Apogee may know more, but I was vortexed? Last night.
I got a "wave of diziness" and then ended up targeting myself. Luckily I have a passive power that doesn't cause harm.
I am unsure if it was a vortex because I apparently ended up targeting myself? I confirmed with gac that this was not because AV was already dead.
I only mention this to say there does seem to be a vortexer and they targeted me so that wasn't the reason for no wolf kill. Apogee has already confirmed that Xi was targeted by a child of dionysis voider and that AV was killed by a vig. I would say in light of this information we need to kill Xi. Snow may be a liar and needs to die, but it seems we have a confirmed person who was voided. I scumread Xi from the beginning and nothing she has done since has changed my mind (though I will play ball). My strongest non-apogee town read is non-existant as there are too many neutral claims and little island camps. We haven't had any accurate wolf hits yet to see who is wolf buddies and who is town. Apogee feels really strong town, but that is all I have.

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Going back through the OP, It was either induce madness and that has RNG that I was unlucky enough to get myself (which seems weird, but I guess technically possible), or some unnamed neutral role power. I could see it being Strategic Placement, but I have reason to think otherwise.

This doesn't technically confirm Xi as a wolf, since as I mentioned above there's a few possible reasons for no wolf kill. But I agree she's pretty suspicious.

Also, I'm not sure what the vortexer has to do with this? If it was just the vortex interfering with the wolf kill, there would still be a kill, just with a different target from what the wolves intended. The vortexer was never a possibility for why the wolves didn't kill.

Also also, my reading is that the person with Induce Madness picks two targets and redirects one to the other, no RNG involved. But I guess there's no reason they couldn't redirect you to yourself and act sort of like a void?

@gac: Am I correct in my understanding of the Induce Madness power? And if so, are they able to redirect someone to themselves?

[Apogee1]

Honestly I'm more inclined to lynch this new neutral who hasn't talked about any role then Snowblaze.

Also just so we're clear, you're saying that there is a child of Poseidon with the protection power that targeted Libro last night and got as a feedback that Libro wasn't targeted at all?

Correct. At this point I don’t really know how to handle more neuts, because there already seem to be a lot, but who knows.

[Xihirli]

So that leaves the possibilities
1) Wolves also targeted AV last night. Possible, given it's AV, it's not exactly unusual for wolves to try to kill them N1.
2) Wolves targeted the child of Ares with Hard to Kill. Not sure if they'd find out about losing a life or now.
3) Xihirli was the wolf who did the kill and was voided.

4) The person who apparently confessed to killing the seer is lying about being town.

Just throwing that one out there.

[gac3]

To answer Elenna's questions without quoting:


The wolf that makes the night kill will also have full access to any role powers they have.

The induce madness does choose the new target. Any role (With some obvious exceptions) may target themself.

[Snowblaze]

...I find it unlikely but not impossible that the wolves have a vig.

Agreed that there are definitely too many neutral claims now - I wouldn’t mind killing the unspecified neutral but I’m aware that I’m still the most suspicious neutral claim.

Also people aren’t reading my ISOs in enough detail. Well, either that or they’re just not bothering to comment on the weird stuff.

Will try and finish the rest today... who do I have? Libro, MornShine, Murska, Rogan, rogue_alchemist, Shal06, totadileplayz, Valmark, Xihirli, Zelphas. That’s a lot. Great.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: Libro ISO

Show

21 - point already made about this being a mistake... given we know Apogee isn't his wolfbuddy it's NAI

54 *shrug* NAI

158 - counterclaiming Batcathat. The claim is definitely true... but could he be a truthful wolf? I was talking to Valmark about this earlier and ended up with "sure, he could do this as a wolf but he'd definitely do it as town: which isn't that helpful. The manner of the claim reminds me of Evil Villains when he was town but wolf!him would likely try and fake that. Not particularly helpful, I think I'm at "the claim is mildly towny but the role is likely to be a wolf role so balances out at null". The function speculation I would townread except it's after AV and Rogan's analysis of which roles could be wolf.

273 - mechanics, NAI. A valid-but-not-necessarily-true defence. I'm claiming vig who shot AV. Still a neutral, though. Not a serial killer ;)

313 - realising he hadn't voted Batcathat. Could be mildly wolfy if I look at it in a certain way.

And... he hasn't posted at all day two.

Can you post more, please?

On what I've got... null. My gut says town.

[Rogan]

Anyways I have a claim from the vig for it being their kill. They didnÂ’t claim that earlier, so didnÂ’t tell them to stay clear of AV.

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The child of Dionysus I am in contact with said they are not informed they are being hunted/protected.

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ItÂ’s an undescribed neutral. DonÂ’t really know how to handle that at this point with so many neuts being claimed.

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The doctor is claiming that they did not save libroÂ’s life last night, so whatever ended the kill was not then. The child of dionysus roleblocked Xihirli, so thatÂ’s a possible kill stopped. There is also the possibility that the two overlapped naturally

1) Sounds believable on Apogees side. But if the killer did not do so, maybe speak up? On the other side, I can understand not telling Apogee without more info. Allowing a wolf to direct a town kill would be bad. Probably should have picked another, more suspicious target instead...
2) If Snows claim is correct, this would be another hint for a lying Zeusling. Otherwise, null.
3) Sounds hard to believe... I can see many Neutral roles, but 5 are a tad too much... On the other hand, team wolf would know this as well... is this the famous WIFOM?
4) Well, Xi was suspicious the whole time. Perhaps a bit too suspicious? The beast?

@Gac: Can Dionysus make someone too drunk to fight back?

Honestly I'm more inclined to lynch this new neutral who hasn't talked about any role then Snowblaze.

So, since I like to put too much thought into minor things... Has anybody heard from Apogee in private this day?
I did not, despite asking some questions.
If nobody got something from Apogee, this neutral role could be real and prevent Apogee from talking in private today. Morpheus sleep or something.
But I think the more likely answer is, my question was not important enough and Apogee has limited time.

So Apogee may know more, but I was vortexed? Last night.
I got a "wave of diziness" and then ended up targeting myself. Luckily I have a passive power that doesn't cause harm.
I am unsure if it was a vortex because I apparently ended up targeting myself? I confirmed with gac that this was not because AV was already dead.
I only mention this to say there does seem to be a vortexer and they targeted me so that wasn't the reason for no wolf kill. Apogee has already confirmed that Xi was targeted by a child of dionysis voider and that AV was killed by a vig. I would say in light of this information we need to kill Xi. Snow may be a liar and needs to die, but it seems we have a confirmed person who was voided. I scumread Xi from the beginning and nothing she has done since has changed my mind (though I will play ball). My strongest non-apogee town read is non-existant as there are too many neutral claims and little island camps. We haven't had any accurate wolf hits yet to see who is wolf buddies and who is town. Apogee feels really strong town, but that is all I have.

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Going back through the OP, It was either induce madness and that has RNG that I was unlucky enough to get myself (which seems weird, but I guess technically possible), or some unnamed neutral role power. I could see it being Strategic Placement, but I have reason to think otherwise.

I think the madness power is not random, but I could be wrong.
I share your concerns about Xi, but see above.

@Gac Can the player using the madness power pick the new target, or is it random?

Do we have confirmation that it was 100% just the Vig who targetted AV? If you have confirmation that it isn't possible a wolf and Vig kill on the same target, this is definitely the best option for the lynch.

Also is it possible the Hard to Kill Ares child got hit?

Good questions. I would like to know the answers myself. I think I even asked Gac if we would get a hint if someone was killed twice.

Shorted this quote a lot to save space, if you want to see the full text, follow the link to the original post.

<About the power>

<About loyalty>

<About Rogue Alchemist>

<About Ares>

<About the vig>

Your plan about the power sounds good. And, depending on the powers the scanner has access to, it might only delay the Zeus detection instead of wasting it.

Your loyalty is well explained as well. Although it feels like the wolf team does not risk a lot if they contact you. After all, they can promise you to kill a child if Zeus, while town is very much limited in their ability to kill. But this would only really come into play if there is no wolf children of Zeus.

Nothing to add
Nothing to add

My own thoughts about the child of Zeus are not that negative. There have been concerns about Appgee before, so not trusting him to direct a kill seems believable. I did not come 100% clear myself before the night ended.

I would like to advance one additional possibility:

Maybe the one who claimed Vigilante is... lying? And is a child of Zeus but... is also a wolf?

Like when someone is like "trust me, I'm not a wolf! Look, I killed the seer!" I think maybe a few more people should question that.

Again, how would team wolf knew AV was the Seer? It was night 1, there was no chance to gather information by power. And I don't think AV claimed to anybody but Apogee.
So you propose that Apogee and/or his partner is a wolf? Possible, yeah. But probably a very low risk. And at this point, it would basically mean that Team wolf has already won.
Knowing most roles and being able to influence targeting for some time would be a very huge advantage.

[Valmark]

Apogee1, unsure if I asked already (today is a busy day so I'll be absent or just too tired for much of it) but you said that the vigilante claimed to have killed AV- did they say why? I can't help but think that there were many Town members would kill before AV.

[rogue_alchemist]

To the first part: I have it worked out tonight to scry the person who gets a charge of every power targeting them. They can confirm my power D3. (Yeah, it wastes my scry tonight, but it gives me a way to confirm I'm not a direct risk to the Zeuslings, and to confirm I'm really neutral. So seems worth it.)

I assume this is through the town network and we have some independent confirmation that the person testing you is who you claim they are and you aren't both wolf buddies or they have some other reason (helping each other's neutral win-con) to lie for you about how powerful you are. But I guess this is WIFOM.

To the second one: you shouldn't. I will 100% stab Town in the back if I need to to win. I don't say this to get y'all to vote for me, but just to be honest. Since if I lied, nobody would reasonably believe me anyhow.
HOWEVER, I doubt the wolves would risk contacting me, in case I betray them for survival purposes. I also think the wolves don't have a good situation to blackmail me, since them killing me instead of a townie make it harder for them to win. I'm basically hoping Town (with Apogee's network) is in a strong situation, and thus will elimiante the wolves eventually (including likely one Zeusling). I just hope that the other one dies in the meantime by a random NK or mislynch.
Also, if I join the wolves immediately, that will likely get discovered, and I'll wind up getting killed before the Zeuslings all die.
Note two that the answer about my power factors into this. I have a weak power that is designed particularly to find and screw over Children of Zeus, but I can't kill them, and this can be confirmed by D3 (assuming no voider or vortexer screws it up and that my target doesn't get NKed).



Did you claim a power in all that, which makes it look stronger Xi is the killer?
Sounds like you meant to target AV, but were vortexted to target yourself. Which means that the kill was moved from aiming at you to AV. Is that right?

no I didn't claim a power, just that it was passive (passive to me means info gathering of some kind). I don't have direct confirmation of Xi. I got a result last night that I got "wave of diziness" and set off to target someone else. Then I got the result at the bottom that my power targeted rogue_alchemist (with information about myself as confirmation). I have fully claimed to Apogee at the end of D1 to coordinate last night, so they can somewhat back me up.
Your explanation of vortexing seems weird to me. I wasn't saying that I was the kill target and it got switched. I was saying I targeted AV and got switched to targeting myself.

@Apogee: are you in contact with this Child of Ares? Have they told me what answer gac3 gave when they asked about this?
Or, Child of Ares: ask about this if you don't already know.

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While believable -- can't fault someone for killing AV, in general -- it seems rather odd for a Town Vig when there's questionable neutrals (Snowblaze) and folk acting suspicious (Valmark, maybe Xi).
What does seem odd is that the vig wouldn't tell the Town Network Coordinator who they were targeting, lest it be someone with a good claim or Apogee's sibling.

This really sounds like a wolf who felt like they needed to join the Town Network and claim honestly, lest they get found out later, or wanted it as a way to infiltrate the Town Network and get towncred, and is now covering up for it before they get discovered and "outted" (looks more honest).

Maybe everybody else already got this, but I was re-reading the Roles to try to figure out what the passive powers were, and saw this.
Based on what rogue_alchemist said, he was likely redirected by a Dionsysian, not vortexed by a Zeusling.

So one Diosnysian voided Xi, and one redirected rogue_alchemist.

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ADD-ON: blargh. I missed that rogue_alchemist literally said that power made sense in the add-on to his post.
But why do you think it was RNG to yourself? It sounds like the redirector chooses who it redirects to.

I thought RNG because why would you choose to redirect someone back on themselves? But I could have just been redirected to myself.

Okay, yeah, this sounds plausible. We might need to look at killing Jeen at some point, since there's a good chance they want at least one townie dead, but I don't think that should be a priority today.

I agree with Rogan, it's unusual for a neutral like this to have a scry+block for their target, and not a scry+kill. Especially because this role is harder than the typical "kill X player" neutral due to (probably) having two targets. But we'll see how Jeen's proposed test turns out.

Jeen, any particular reason you assume that one of Zeus' kids is town. Not saying I think they're both wolves, just curious if you have any extra info that makes you sure about it. Although that might be the kind of information that's better told to only Apogee.



A reminder that Apogee said their sibling received narrator confirmation that Apogee is town. So the only way Apogee could be a wolf is if
1) Apogee lied about the narrator confirmation, and somehow convinced their (townie) sibling not to call them on it.
2) gac lied to the sibling
3) The sibling is also a wolf - theoretically possible that both of them could roll wolves, but I imagine the probability is quite low.
None of these seem likely to me.

That being said, the probability of the vig being a wolf is independent from the probability of a child of Demeter being a wolf, unless I'm misunderstanding how gac decided the wolf roles. So if vig flips wolf, that doesn't change anything about the (extremely low) probability that Apogee is a wolf.
That is, P(Apogee is wolf | vig is wolf) = P(Apogee is wolf), and also P(vig is wolf | Apogee is wolf) = P(Vig is wolf), because the two events are independent.
Yay stats!


You can change it by clicking the "Post Icons" options under the reply box. Maybe you clicked that by accident? If not, IDK.


Good to know. Although I agree with Jeen, a vig not checking their kill with the town network leader seems weird (and wolfy). Too easy to screw up and kill someone important, like what actually happened.

@gac: If the player with Lightning Control was a wolf, would the wolves get two kills a night (a vig kill and a regular wolf kill)? Or would they just get one? I assumed the first one but some people seem to be assuming the second.

Gac answered this by saying a wolf has their regular power in addition to the faction kill, though the two may interact in some way to change how their power behaves (not sure what that last part I supposed to mean.

... huh. So between Jeen's claim and this, we're back to five neutral claims. I still think one of them is a wolf, and I still think Snowblaze's claim is suspiciously weird.
Incidentally, the role list includes Huntress of Artemis as a possible neutral role, and I don't think we've seen that claim yet? So maybe that's your other neutral. Although of course it's not certain that Huntress of Artemis is actually in the game.


So gac specifically told the baner that nobody tried to kill Libro last night? Unusual, but I'm willing to believe them for now, since presumably you only received one baner claim.

with our doctor description being that they literally are close enough to arrive on scene and save someone, not just magically protect them from being targeted, it makes sense fluff-wise that they would know if their target was killed or not.

So that leaves the possibilities
1) Wolves also targeted AV last night. Possible, given it's AV, it's not exactly unusual for wolves to try to kill them N1.
2) Wolves targeted the child of Ares with Hard to Kill. Not sure if they'd find out about losing a life or now.
3) Xihirli was the wolf who did the kill and was voided.

Hmm. And I didn't like Xihirli's D1 no lynch suggestion, either.
I still think Snowblaze is slightly more suspicious, mostly because AV is a common N1 kill target, but I definitely want them both dead eventually.


This doesn't technically confirm Xi as a wolf, since as I mentioned above there's a few possible reasons for no wolf kill. But I agree she's pretty suspicious.

Also, I'm not sure what the vortexer has to do with this? If it was just the vortex interfering with the wolf kill, there would still be a kill, just with a different target from what the wolves intended. The vortexer was never a possibility for why the wolves didn't kill.

Also also, my reading is that the person with Induce Madness picks two targets and redirects one to the other, no RNG involved. But I guess there's no reason they couldn't redirect you to yourself and act sort of like a void?

@gac: Am I correct in my understanding of the Induce Madness power? And if so, are they able to redirect someone to themselves?

My point was to get more info out to town. I was "blocked" in one form or another last night from performing my night action, so that is one less blocker out there to account for. I agree that AV could have been double targeted or hard to kill could have survived, we don't know. I had a strong scumread on Xi D1 so with them also being blocked and there not being may blocks, it seems pretty likely (at least 1/3 chance from your list, which is pretty good D2) Xi is the wolf killer and was blocked.

[Valmark]

That... Last sentence came out weird. Let me try again. I can't help but think that there were many Town members that one would kill before AV.

And I say Town because I think I was an apparently better target then AV and for obvious reasons I know I'm Town.

[Snowblaze]

Well, I think I was the best vig target of all, and I am definitely not town!

Anyway: I’m not going to finish my ISOs - there probably isn’t enough time and since they don’t seem to be persuading people not to kill me it feels kind of pointless.

Reads list (JeenLeen deliberately left off as a claimed neutral)

Apogee1
Bladescape
Rogan
Valmark
Libro
MornShine
Zelphas
Book Wombat
flat_footed
totadileplayz
Murska
Shal06
Xihirli
rogue_alchemist
Elenna
CaoimhinTheCape

That’s as good as I’m going to get.

MornShine and Zelphas - have been doing stuff and I didn’t notice anything that suspicious from either

Rogan - liked the analysis he’s been doing today

totadileplayz - I had concerns but I’m thinking they weren’t as strong as I previously thought

Murska - hasn’t really done much, and is yet to answer my questions

Shal06 - been quiet, I disagree with their reasoning about killing Emmy from yesterday

Xihirli - okay, yeah, I have no clue here

rogue_alchemist - vague gut feeling. I didn’t like their argument with Rogan yesterday.


Well, I’ve done what I can. I’ll say goodbye in a few hours but barring a miracle (please?) this is my last analysis post.

Oh yeah, and I may as well spell out what I meant when I said no-one had read my ISOs:

206 - NAI, though I’m actually the secret love-Child of Iris and Ariadne. Also I’m a cultist, and a Russian spy.

192: NAI, although I lied earlier. I’m actually Harry Potter who is the son of Zeus. Oh yeah, and I’m the Seer. AV had a power to flip as a different role.

71 - also NAI. I’m a survivor, by the way. I’ve just been possessed by an evil spirit forcing me to play against my win condition - ignore that. I’m a Child of Iris. I mean Ariadne.

273 - mechanics, NAI. A valid-but-not-necessarily-true defence. I'm claiming vig who shot AV. Still a neutral, though. Not a serial killer ;)

Because silly fake claims to check whether people are reading your analysis are fun, apparently.

[Rogan]

Well, I think I was the best vig target of all, and I am definitely not town!

Anyway: I’m not going to finish my ISOs - there probably isn’t enough time and since they don’t seem to be persuading people not to kill me it feels kind of pointless.

Reads list (JeenLeen deliberately left off as a claimed neutral)

Apogee1
Bladescape
Rogan
Valmark
Libro
MornShine
Zelphas
Book Wombat
flat_footed
totadileplayz
Murska
Shal06
Xihirli
rogue_alchemist
Elenna
CaoimhinTheCape

That’s as good as I’m going to get.

MornShine and Zelphas - have been doing stuff and I didn’t notice anything that suspicious from either

Rogan - liked the analysis he’s been doing today

totadileplayz - I had concerns but I’m thinking they weren’t as strong as I previously thought

Murska - hasn’t really done much, and is yet to answer my questions

Shal06 - been quiet, I disagree with their reasoning about killing Emmy from yesterday

Xihirli - okay, yeah, I have no clue here

rogue_alchemist - vague gut feeling. I didn’t like their argument with Rogan yesterday.


Well, I’ve done what I can. I’ll say goodbye in a few hours but barring a miracle (please?) this is my last analysis post.

Oh yeah, and I may as well spell out what I meant when I said no-one had read my ISOs:

206 - NAI, though I’m actually the secret love-Child of Iris and Ariadne. Also I’m a cultist, and a Russian spy.

192: NAI, although I lied earlier. I’m actually Harry Potter who is the son of Zeus. Oh yeah, and I’m the Seer. AV had a power to flip as a different role.

71 - also NAI. I’m a survivor, by the way. I’ve just been possessed by an evil spirit forcing me to play against my win condition - ignore that. I’m a Child of Iris. I mean Ariadne.

273 - mechanics, NAI. A valid-but-not-necessarily-true defence. I'm claiming vig who shot AV. Still a neutral, though. Not a serial killer ;)

Because silly fake claims to check whether people are reading your analysis are fun, apparently.

Okay, I'll give you some benefit of doubt. Your statement that you think I'm town might again influence my behaviour.

So, I'll switch my vote to Xi. I suspected her day 1 and there are enough reasons to suspect her today as well.

Oh, and I would like to repeat my question:

Has anybody got a private message from Apogee today?

[bladescape]

Okay, I'll give you some benefit of doubt. Your statement that you think I'm town might again influence my behaviour.

So, I'll switch my vote to Xi. I suspected her day 1 and there are enough reasons to suspect her today as well.

Oh, and I would like to repeat my question:

Has anybody got a private message from Apogee today?

I honestly don't think asking for who has got messages from Apogee publicly is a good idea. If there is a high priority person he's been messaging when ignoring everyone else I wouldn't want to know who it was. Unless I was wolf, in which case I would.

I actually think you're pretty town, which is why I'm not accusing you over this post. But Apogee has posted in thread today, which means he's around somewhat.

[Rogan]

Vote Quotes / Count

Spoiler: Quotes

Show

Snowblaze

Valmark..

Snowblaze

Snowblaze

Snowblaze

Snowblaze

Valmark

Snowblaze

Valmark

Xi

Xi

Snowblaze: 6
Valmark: 3
Xi: 2

12,5 hours left, right?

- - - Updated - - -

I honestly don't think asking for who has got messages from Apogee publicly is a good idea. If there is a high priority person he's been messaging when ignoring everyone else I wouldn't want to know who it was. Unless I was wolf, in which case I would.

I actually think you're pretty town, which is why I'm not accusing you over this post. But Apogee has posted in thread today, which means he's around somewhat.

Good point, I did thought about this.

So, don't tell us if you received a message.

If Apogee remains quite after the WE has ended, we might have to worry. But right now, the more likely explanation is, he is busy and I'm not important.

[Valmark]

Oh yeah, and I may as well spell out what I meant when I said no-one had read my ISOs:

206 - NAI, though I’m actually the secret love-Child of Iris and Ariadne. Also I’m a cultist, and a Russian spy.

192: NAI, although I lied earlier. I’m actually Harry Potter who is the son of Zeus. Oh yeah, and I’m the Seer. AV had a power to flip as a different role.

71 - also NAI. I’m a survivor, by the way. I’ve just been possessed by an evil spirit forcing me to play against my win condition - ignore that. I’m a Child of Iris. I mean Ariadne.

273 - mechanics, NAI. A valid-but-not-necessarily-true defence. I'm claiming vig who shot AV. Still a neutral, though. Not a serial killer ;)

Because silly fake claims to check whether people are reading your analysis are fun, apparently.

For what's worth after the first two I stopped caring about the weird stuff, so didn't feel like commenting.

Also honestly I'd like to lynch the currently unknown vig- unless they got their target switched, it's clearly weird to shoot AV.

Xi... It's plausible she was the killer but there are other valid cases. When in doubt I'd rather lynch the Neutral caught into a lie (willingly or not) then lynch the unknown person.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm sorry Cao for tunnelling on you Day 1.

No worries, I can see how my defending BatCat came off as suspicious.

---

I'll actually be online to help today, but not sure what more I have to add.

Since it isn't being talked about much, I'll echo what Xirili and Valmark said: why would the vig go after AV??? There were plenty of more suspicious people or at the very least Neutral claims that wouldn't hurt the town?

Anyways I have a claim from the vig for it being their kill. They didn’t claim that earlier, so didn’t tell them to stay clear of AV.

This quote makes me think that there wasn't a redirect involved and that the vig intended to kill AV. Which is not a good look for them. Of everyone, I'm highly suspicious of the vig.

---

For votes, unfortunately the safest play to me still feels like it would be going for the Neutrals. Worst case we lose someone who wasn't for the town and best case we get a lying wolf. Really nothing to analyze that isn't based in powers.

Of the Neutrals, JeenLeen's claim feels most realistic to me. We obviously don't know the claim of whoever talked to Apogee in private. Snowblaze, is there anything about your role that could help town/sound believable? As it stands you'll be lynched and I don't see how making a full claim could be worse.

---

As for questions/night actions, I'm hoping Apogee has the answers to these and is just keeping quiet:

• Libro would have scanned someone to learn their parent. If Libro has been online at all, I'm hoping he passed along the info to Apogee. If he checked a Neutral all the better so we know if someone is lying.
• Child of Hades has access to the Underworld Chat and access to AV's scry result. I'm hoping that got passed along and

Apogee really shouldn't reveal this info (or even if the players have been around to pass it along) unless it immediately helps with this lynch.

---

If Snowblaze is really Neutral, I'm worried we have a Wolf team coasting by and letting the lynch go through. We have 5 people who haven't posted at all, I'm willing to bet that at least one is a wolf who doesn't care what happens. Makes me a little hesitant to lynch Snow but I don't see Val or Xihirli as a better alternative.

---

12 Hours left.

Vote Count:

Snowblaze (6): Totadileplayz, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Zelphas, Bladescape, Valmark
Valmark (3): JeenLeen, Murska, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Rogue_Alchemist, Rogan
Not Voting: Apogee, Snowblaze
No Posts: BookWombat, Flat-Footed, Libro, Mornshine, Shal06

[Xihirli]

Wait, really? I missed that the first time, the vig claimant killed our Seer and then claimed and everyone's like "hmm. The wolves didn't do a kill last night. Suspicious."

Apogee, you have caught a wolf tell us who they are.

[Valmark]

Wait, really? I missed that the first time, the vig claimant killed our Seer and then claimed and everyone's like "hmm. The wolves didn't do a kill last night. Suspicious."

Apogee, you have caught a wolf tell us who they are.

Pretty much. Even if the wolf kill and the vig kill are unrelated this vig needs an harsher scrutiny.

[Murska]

Murska - hasn’t really done much, and is yet to answer my questions

Questions? The obvious ones about why I'm giving a secondary candidate a push on a day where the lynch target is clear and so we're not gaining any information, or are there other questions that I've missed?

[Snowblaze]

Questions? The obvious ones about why I'm giving a secondary candidate a push on a day where the lynch target is clear and so we're not gaining any information, or are there other questions that I've missed?

I also asked whether you thought Valmark and I are wolfbuddies.

[Rogan]

Wait, really? I missed that the first time, the vig claimant killed our Seer and then claimed and everyone's like "hmm. The wolves didn't do a kill last night. Suspicious."

Apogee, you have caught a wolf tell us who they are.

HOW would a wold Vig know AV was the Seer?
It was night 1!

I think killing the Vig would be a bad move.

Best case, it is a wolf and we learn whos posts should be investigated more.
Worst case, we kill one of the stronger town powers.

So, I'd say:
Apogee picks the next target for the Child of Zeus.

If the Zeusling kills this target and it was a wolf? Town cred for the Zeusling. Not guaranteed, but better than nothing.
If the Zeusling kills someone else and there is no Wolfkill? Well, propable the kill of the Zeusling was the wolf kill. In with case, not much lost. Only one person dead one way or another.
If the Zeusling kills someone else and there is a night kill by the wolfes, we can safely assume the child of zeus was lying. Unless Apogee is told about any target switch power.


Killing the Child of Zeus after he claimed to Apogee would be stupid, especialy if you think that the zeusling IS the wolf nightkill.

- - - Updated - - -

So, in short: Let Apogee direct the Child of Zeus from now on. And only kill the Child of Zeus if he does not do as he was told.