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Thread: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-16, 03:36 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Being defensive about being defensive? That's very meta if nothing else.
That said, sticking to Snow despite me being the clear wolfy flavor of the day is... good, I guess? Unless you're just scared of Popo's ultimatum.
Since it seems likely we'll be wagon one and two today, I should probably take a second look at your ISO. Though probably after I do Xi's, while I have a good feeling about her, I suppose she could be a wolf just coasting through the chaos.
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Ah, nevermind then.
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2021-09-16, 04:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
For that to be true, Countess would be in the discard pile. Two successful uses of Prince powers will get it into somebody's hand, regardless of who used the Prince power and who was targeted by the Prince power (excepting those targets that could cause an unsuccessful Prince'ing). Snowblaze claims to have Prince'd Xihirli (which I'd like confirmation on). That means if anybody else successfully used a prince power, the countess card has to be in play. Scum could not have gained the Countess card, so it would have to be in the hands of a townie. If a townie got the Countess card, they would've called Libro out. Given that no such callout has occurred, we can conclude that one of two things is true:
1) Libro is telling the truth
2) There has only been one successful use of the Prince power by both princes in total so far this game
Emmy claims to have prince'd herself N1. If that's true, then Libro is clear, but we have no reason to trust Emmy. Additionally, if a second successful prince power usage can be confirmed, we'll be able to know for sure. Either somebody calls Libro out and we can thunderdome, or nobody does and Libro is 100% clear instead of 99% clear.
Spoiler: literally illegal?If Prince targets a member of scumteam, and the discard pile would indicate scum should draw Countess, does the Prince get an Error message similar to when they try to Prince the Princess, or would it skip the Countess card and give them the next one in line? I ask because Emmy claimed to Prince herself, and I was wondering what would happen if she did that and Countess was next in line.
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2021-09-16, 05:06 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Okay I read most of AV's thing and realized I have questions about the prince.
If their are two unused roles and always will be two unused roles, which one does the prince target get? Or does the prince choose which of the two? Or are we saying that the prince power works exactly twice and never again?
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2021-09-16, 05:19 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Firstly, what I've said is true regardless of whether the Prince power removes the target's power from play forever, or just puts it in the discard pile. We started with 16 cards and 14 players, with two cards explicitly in the discard pile. We know the number of times each card shows up and it comes to exactly 16. The Countess has to be somewhere, so either it started the game in the hands of a town player, or it's in the unused pile, and one or two uses of the Prince power would put it in play (and then be unable to remove it from play).
Secondly:
So the cards aren't gone forever if they get Prince'd away.
Given that the example only has a single unused card, I'm not sure which order the Prince powers would put them into play, but the specifics don't matter. The order will be A then B, regardless of how A and B relate to each other. If Countess was A, one successful Prince power would put it into play. If Countess was B, two successful Prince powers would put it into play.
EDIT: I've finished ISOing Popo's D1. aaaaaaaaaaaaLast edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-16 at 05:28 AM.
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2021-09-16, 05:35 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Assuming that it switches as stated and it's
Unused Power A
Unused Power B
And The prince power goes ABABABAB
You are right.
But again, the example uses one unused power. So there is also always the chance that the answer to the question of A or B is random. Which means theoretically one of the two is not in play.
However even with that being the case, I don't think there is any grounds to suspect Libro. Because if it's random and not patterned ABAB, then no countess would require AAA for the three uses so far. This seems unlikely to me, even in the most optimistic/pessimistic.
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2021-09-16, 05:41 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
That's a fair point, if the assignment is random then we can't technically clear Libro basically ever.
Altho one slight correction:
Because if it's random and not patterned ABAB, then no countess would require AAA for the three uses so far.
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2021-09-16, 05:51 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Ah I see. I haven't fully caught up on the day yet. This post just caught my eye. That does increase the chances of a random feed resulting in Libro not being called out. However it would completely depend on the super unlikely scenario where the countess wasn't in use and (if we assume Emmy was telling the truth about her use) Xi to be the prince. If he's anything else now then either Emmy lied (quite possible but another prince could have called her out at this point and even if they did, I'm not sure it eliminations either other option), Snow lied (also possible if snow is wolf) or Libro is telling the truth. So I'm still well in camp of Libro being honest unless someone flips countess.
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2021-09-16, 06:07 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Here's my thoughts on Xi. Obviously not my main concern at the moment, but I was going crazy trying to figure out a convincing argument (and I'm not sure there is one). I'll get back to it though, I'd rather live somewhat suspect than be cleared in death. Until then, if any other guards checked out Libro N1, please speak up.
Spoiler: ISO on XihirliI'm skipping all of the RP, if there's some message hidden in them it could just as well be the completely wrong one.
Not much to say, it's not like either town or wolves had any idea Libro is the Countess at this point.
Could be true regardless of alignment, probably is.
As I said at the time, I feel like protesting against something that seemed unfairly favorable for town would be more likely coming from a towny Xi than a wolfy Xi. But I suspect I might've let that influenced my opinion of Xi a little too much going forward, so I should probably try to ignore it right now.
Seems like a straight forward clarification.
RP focused. Makes sense considering her letters.
Probably just joking around. This actually made me guess Xi as the Princess N2, since jokingly implying being the Princess while actually being the Princess seems like something she might do. As you can probably guess by now, she was not.
A reasonable vote at the time. Probably her first real contribution to finding the wolves.
Defending Jeen turned out to be a good idea but could be a wolf trying for town cred. It feels like it doesn't really refute the main argument against Jeen, maybe intentionally?
A good vote, but could be the above in reverse, getting town cred if Emmy flips later but not really risking lynching her at this point.
Not sure what to make of this. Kind of feels towny but I have nothing to back up my gut.
Reasonable clarification.
Good point, I wonder if that should count towards towny or wolfy?
Voting Emmy again, this time with a much bigger chance of actually contributing to a lynch. So probably town? Though last game taught me that Xi have some good instincts for when to bus, so there's that.
Could be sincere, could be a wolf looking for an excuse to back off.
Not taking the chance to back off though. Could be she felt she couldn't do so convincingly, but that might be overthinking it.
I don't really like this, both for not wanting to provide other suspects and seeming a little unnecessarily defensive.
This feels better. Maybe still a little defensive but I think the reasoning is sound.
I envisioned more of a hacker cave aestetic but to each their own.
This mostly reminds me that I apperantly need to keep an eye on people's signatures. I must've gone over BW's posts five times trying to find what AV was looking for and then it wasn't even in the thread.
Overall, I think I might lean a little more wolfy on Xi (there was a few things I didn't like in the posts and I feel like I might've overvalued a few of my "this seems like something wolf Xi would/wouldn't do" considering I don't know her that well) but still mostly towards town.
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2021-09-16, 06:09 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I am as well. I just wanted to lay out the only situation in which Libro could really be guilty. It's unlikely as hell, and even if it were the case, it would require us to be both very unlucky and require the princes to barely used their powers. Even if it started in the discard, and even if it's a cointoss which discard gets prince'd into play, we can only lose that coin toss so many times. I have no idea why Libro is considered less townish than me.
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2021-09-16, 07:24 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
I have WiFi. Present and correct, for a little longer at least.
It took me far too long to twig exactly how incriminating theBatcathatthing is (I thought a Handmaid might have targeted Mr Popo, but then realised he was Baroned (are we just turning all the roles into verbs now?) so that couldn't have happened. My gut still says there are town!BCH worlds but I don't think this is when I should listen to it.
(Also I didn't like their reaction to my claim - I'm their top suspect so I'd expect them as town to be thinking "what if she's lying" rather than "aw, I could have had a better role".)
My day two sucked even worse than I thought, then, if I miscleared a wolf on top of everything else. I still have tinfoil thoughts on other people but I don't think I need to go there rn. I'll reread the game and see whether there's anything that contradicts the possibility of a Supagoof/Batcathat team.
Also I fixed my RP problems.
Spoiler: RP
Her father was dead. The Princess desperately ill. She was suspected of being a conspirator. The servant bit her lip, hard. She wasn't going to cry. She had to fix this, now.
Best to come clean, she supposed. She glanced around the room, raised one hand to her hood, and threw it back. Beneath was her thick, wavy raven hair, the unmistakable mark of the royal family of Nocturne.
She had their attention now. "I am Pr - " she'd imagined this moment for so long, she'd almost forgotten she was a prince no longer. "King Snowblaze of Nocturne. I received the tragic news of my father's death- " her voice didn't wobble - "early this morning."
Deep breath. Keep going. Explain everything. "I have long heard rumours of the beauty of your Princess. I wished to see if she was as fair of mind and heart as of body. If she would have me as her bride, and one day rule beside me. So I came to your court not as myself but as a servant, thinking that would let me judge the character of Her Highness. But then this dreadful conspiracy unveiled itself."
Pause. Breathe. "I am deeply sorry for what has happened, for all those you have lost. But I swear, I am not part of the conspiracy. And I will help you, if I can, to find them and bring them to justice."
Not sure what I'll do once I king someone else tonight, though!
Supagoof...
And now, a few other thoughts.
For my point on Snowblaze above, the Mafia is not it's own role. I find is highly sus that your plan to "king Snowblaze" and block the wolf kill, "if not - then it's gotta be Supagoof", to be a a wrong plan in the solve. If the assumption is 3+ mafia, then 2+ left means blocking 1 won't stop a kill since the other can perform it. And the more obvious thing is - it's clearly written in the first post that specific action will not work. See quote above.
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Rereading the context a bit, it sounds like Supagoof is claiming that someone suggested I was clear because I was kinged and so couldn't have performed the kill. No-one said that unless I'm completely missing something.Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-09-17 at 12:52 AM.
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Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
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Deaths: 17
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2021-09-16, 07:40 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
And here I was ready to ease up on my suspicion of you if you kept defending me, on the logic that while talking up a townie can make sense from a wolf perspective, actively fighting to stop a mislynch seems a bit extreme. I won't hold agreeing with the accusation against you though, AV's case is annoyingly good.
Snowblazethen.
I think you might be overanalyzing a joke. Or using it to fuel the fire a little bit more, I suppose.Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-17 at 01:24 AM.
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2021-09-16, 07:45 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Stepping in to clarify a couple things:
Unused Roles
Since there are two unused roles, they are assigned in a First In First Out method. So if the Guard and Priest are unused, and one Prince was used, the first player would become the Guard and their role would become unused, filling back behind the Priest. When the next Prince is used, the Priest would be assigned and a new role would fill in from the back. (This is the ABAB method that someone described earlier. It is not random.).
If the Countess is next to be assigned and a Mafia member is targeted, I will skip the Countess and assign the next available role (if the unused are Countess and Guard, the Mafia member would get the Guard).
If the Countess and Princess are the two unused roles, then the Prince ability would not work on the Mafia member.
King blocking
As someone pointed out, the King doesn't stop Mafia kills. It was intended somewhat like the Guards in that it only focuses on the Role. Yes, it weakens the King and if I were to run the setup again I'd reconsider, but for this game the King will not block mafia kills, just stop role stuff from happening.
If y'all have any other mechanical questions, let me know. I realize the roles, especially the role swapping, can be complicated. How those are intended to function should be transparent - I would rather you guys be trying to figured out who is mafia/town rather than being confused on how mechanical stuff works.
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2021-09-16, 07:52 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Oh, I’d inflicted pain before as I’m sure you’re aware, but this was more... actively malicious.
I don’t know if I ever loved him.
Can confirm, I was guarded. Turned into a guard.
That may also explain why Libro could be targeted night 1, I was a handmaid. Sorry for not saying earlier, the part where the swap acts as a roleblock is one I only just read.
Though I guess we just don’t know Wombat’s targets. Or if they were something different before.
Looking at Snowblaze, she’s behaving the way she has in the past when town. Open to being proven wrong, after all I believe the king can be a wolf and lying just now wouldn’t be a good wolf move, but I’m reading Snow as town.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2021-09-16, 08:52 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
First off: this ISO is a little different. Instead of trying to figure out which way a post makes me lean on Popo (because Popo is good enough that I should be leaning town on all of it), I'm going to go in assuming Popo is scum and seeing what explanations I can pull out of the post. Why would scum!Popo write this, or that? That kind of approach. Sort of a "proof by disproof" if you will.
Second off: when I've done big ISOs in the past that required multiple posts, I either need somebody to post in between, or I need to wait an hour in between posting the separate parts. Otherwise, the forum will try to merge the posts via an "updated" line, and it'll be too large for one post. This is a three-parter (because I stopped a little ways into N2 after having enough material), so I'll get parts 2 and 3 up when the forum allows it.
Spoiler: Mr Popo ISO part 1Joking around to endear himself to a town not yet familiar with his style. He knows the plan isn't great for town, because Princess and Countess are guaranteed town, and have the highest rank (8 and 7 respectively). That means that when they're the wagons, the tie rules favor them (and thus, favor town). Getting a princess to endgame greatly reduces scum chances of victory, so the sooner princess/countess can be eliminated, the better. The first step of that is hunting them down, and if they're willing to claim? All the better.
Popo knows the Countess isn't going to go along with this plan (not necessarily because the Countess has realized all the above, but because claiming D1 as a martyr requires a much more persuasive argument than Snowblaze was making)...which makes it harder for scumteam to solve the game and off the princess in a timely fashion. The way to actually force the Countess to claim is via a counterclaim.
Popo claims Countess to draw out the counterclaim, leads mechanical discussion away from endgame and ties and more about the principle of telling scum where power roles are (in a game where everybody is sort of a power role), and now has two built-in defenses for when the inevitable counterclaim and wagon come crashing down on him:
1) "I wasn't seriously claiming Countess, I was claiming while talking about how claims are a very bad move, it's not supposed to be taken seriously."
2) "Oh come on, you really think scum would claim Countess, when they know full well that the Countess role is in play? There's no way I knew that early on that we'd have two inactive players, and even then it's just luck if they happen to the be the Countess! Scum would know they were going to get counterclaimed, why would I do that?" This is the essence of Too Wolfy To Be Wolf.
Scum!Popo practically admitting he's going to NK bladescape first out of respect for their skills in scumhunting and their knowledge of Popo's tricks.
Distrusts me for "distrusting Libro for no reason", even though it's a randvote, that's just how votes work this early in D1. Dollars to donuts, he sees people joking about voting me out of principle and thinks I'm one of the more dangerous players (even if none of us are anywhere near truly dangerous by his standards). I did a single post and left, and I've already got a wagon on me, so he votes me "because he's voting Libro and I have no reason to distrust Libro" (which, if Popo is town, is the same kinda "vote-as-a-result-of-fearmongering" that he later called Rogan cruel for doing).
Despite so far pushing for people to not claim in general, is apparently so convinced the wagon on me is already locked in that it's appropriate to start pushing me for a claim. Sure, it could be he had confidence in the wagon. But it's easy for scum!Popo to make a three-person wagon this early look a lot more solid than it actually is.
Mr Popo has already stuck his neck out for Libro as part of his "argument" to vote me, so when Libro shows up, of course Mr Popo claims he doesn't want Libro dead and is townreading him based on basically nothing. What's actually going on in this post is that Mr Popo 100% knew that Libro was counterclaiming, but wasn't reacting properly on the off-chance that Libro would be so low-activity (per my insinuations about Libro in my one post) and that he wouldn't get counterclaimed until much later. The best case scenario for scumteam is that they know who the Countess/Princess are, but town doesn't. A counterclaim would generally mean everybody knows who Countess is, but if Libro is only soft-counterclaiming, town might have trouble putting the pieces together, while scum knows exactly what's going on.
Now that Libro is active in the thread but hasn't quite fully counterclaimed him, Popo's goal is now to convince Libro he doesn't need to counterclaim. That means convincing Libro that the claim wasn't serious, which means Popo needs to make many unserious claims. Popo gets the idea that if it worked once, maybe he can repeat his trick using a Princess claim, potentially luring out a soft counterclaim (or even a hard one), all while being able to say "I was just joking around, everybody could tell" when people ask him why he was fakeclaiming princess; this also works for if Libro ends up counterclaiming him more explicitly.
But there's no way a plan like that ever takes off, right?
Literally the next two posts, and Popo is building up exactly the arguments that scum!Popo would want to build up here: that no scum would ever claim Countess if they knew there was a counterclaim imminent, that Popo is the princess, and that Popo is obviously not actually the princess, can't you see that he was joking? This is textbook Schrodinger's Douchebag, where he decides whether he was joking or not based on the reaction to his 'joke'.
(And this isn't me calling him a douchebag, that's just the name I know associated with that concept.)
Popo refuses to commit while pretending it's for townie reasons. The truth is that he refuses to commit because he wants to have the options of having his cake as well as the option of eating it, so that he's town's golden boy no matter which way the wind blows. Posts like this aren't about ferreting out townies, it's about creating paths to safety for Popo in case town turns on him for fakeclaiming locktown roles. He wants the respect that comes with the claim, but also the protection of claiming 'as a joke' in case he gets called out on it.
First part is where he insists that Libro isn't counterclaiming. Does that...seem like the Mr Popo we've gotten to know this week? Do you think that town!Popo was fakeclaiming Countess, saw Libro ask "are you sure about that" with a smirking smiley, and honest-to-god thought "Libro is asking if I'm sure about what's in my trousers, not asking if I'm sure about my role". No. Popo knows full well what Libro was doing, and this right here is him trying to convince town that Libro wasn't actually counterclaiming him (on the off-chance Libro comes back and actually commits this time).
Second part is where Snowblaze sees Mr Popo's princess claim as non-serious and jokingly responds in kind. The meme that could save Popo from the lynch is starting to spread, so he dutifully propagates it further.
Third part is where JeenLeen moves off my wagon. Once more, we have to call Mr Popo's competence into question here. Does he just...not know how early D1 votes work? People roll dice, people vote as community jokes, people vote based on positioning in the player list, people vote themselves. Popo seems to see them all as seriously meant, as if anybody has anything to go on when nobody has posted anything substantial. Popo says he's voting me because I voted Libro for bad reasons. When JeenLeen leaves me wagon, Mr Popo says "I am not sure that's an optimal move for a member of either faction, to be really frank", as if abandoning your early D1 randvote isn't a perfectly normal thing that literally everybody does every single game. He's talking like he sees this as proof of a Jeen/AV pairing, and yet by the end of the day he's townreading us both just in time to be right and not get called out on it.
Popo is SDing to dodge the lynch no matter what happens, and hiding behind generic townie reasons for doing so.
With JL abandoning my wagon, Popo wants to try and get that pressure back on me, that way he can either get an easy mislynch if I don't show up, or an easy claim if I do.
Pressure for easy mislynch or easy claim. Popo is remarkably consistent once you look at his posts in isolation.
"Obviously loyal" based on his one post so far, with similar length and content to my own contributions despite me being "obviously disloyal". The only "evidence" for guilt or innocence at this point is Popo's gut feelings about a few people. Supagoof was locktown because gac was lockscum, AV is lockscum because Libro is locktown, but when you get to the core of it, there's never any actual reasons given. He's simultaneously trying to hold a plank of wood at waist height and insisting it's a table that has legs to stand on, while also trying to squeeze his way into Libro's pocket in case he shows up again.
Rogan: "Why do you think Vecna is scum?"
Popo: "Because Libro is town, and the reason he gave is a scummy reason. No, I won't explain why Libro is town or why AV's vote reasoning is scummy, because then I'd either have to admit that I don't know how randvoting works, or I'd have to admit that I do, and I'd also have to put a case together for trusting Libro that can pass scrutiny."
So as you can see, when Popo said "I will answer all your questions as you return the favor", he was lying. I'm pretty sure he was also lying when he said that he hasn't played with me in many years, because I can't recall ever playing with Mr Popo.
"I also do not want anyone to get the wise idea that we should waste the day on someone who is not here and also has done zero disloyal things and has not posted and may never claim in time."
Even tho he's basically doing literally exactly that. Up until I showed up some two days into our three day timeframe for D1, Popo was pushing me off a single randvote and acting as if he'd used that to solve the game.
Easy mislynch or easy claim.
There is exactly precisely one difference between my content at this point and Libro's: Libro soft-counterclaimed Mr Popo.
And then Mr Popo locktowned Libro while pretending the counterclaim wasn't real and trying to head off any wagon that a proper counterclaim would cause. Libro was getting pocketed, and I was getting thrown under the bus for easy points towards winning.
"Being a fair judge here, I probably have gac3 too high and that one is probably the only actual danger of going deep, because I wanted a 9th name and was excited to think of a reason why gac was town."
More SDing. He thinks gac is town, but is willing to "admit" it's because he got over-excited...you know, willing under the circumstances where too many people disagree with him.
"In addition to being lock town when Vecna is not, you are also independently villagery for your distrust of me in particular and suspicion that I have falsely claimed and that it must be wolfy of me. You remind me of nearly everyone I have ever met who has played with me for the first time."
Pocketing. Like seriously, this is some pretty hefty brown-nosing going on. For how solid Popo feels about Rogan here, it's so strange how later Rogan would be Popo's third-pick for the D2 vote. And then later still, Rogan is once again townread. Top 10 Mysteries Even Batman Can't Explain /s
And yet we come to last night, with Popo pushing Snowblaze and Supagoof to thunderdome, while constantly insisting that game is going great for town. But of course, that matches up with the first part:
"I have gotten smoked enough times to have the wisdom to know when the town pile is worthy of being protected and when the town pile has to be discussed."
By Popo's own words, you can't trust him when he says he reads X player as Y alignment, when he says how strong that read is, when he says how good the game is going, when he says how solid his towncore is. A willingness to react to his mistakes is admirable, but when it's constantly hidden behind camouflage of extreme confidence that he's always right even when he's messed up a couple times? Literally the first thing he said D3 was "actually I changed my mind about Book Wombat in the middle of the night and didn't say anything". It comes across like an unwillingness to admit to his own mistakes...and that's the charitable reading. The uncharitable reading is that he's intentionally leading us all down a path where only Popo is ever right or can be trusted, even when he's wrong it was actually part of a secret plan to help town. Just kill whoever he tells you to, protect him to the last because he's our best player and wolves want him dead, and it will all work out.
"D) Libro counterclaims me because Libro doesn't understand I was saving their neck and drawing the murder.
E) Therefore Libro is always town and is always the countess.
F) Now help me destroy an actual wolf today so we can salvage the situation."
If D and E was when Libro first reacted to Popo's claim, then Popo would've continued the deception further and refused to townread Libro off that. That's what a town!Popo should do in that situation - sure, privately, Popo understands Libro's position, but publicly there's no need to broadcast that Popo suddenly trusts Libro more than any other player for no stated reason. Town!Popo would know how that looks to scum (because scum is definitely paying attention to stuff about Countess claims) and would do as much as possible to obfuscate that Popo's Countess claim isn't serious. Instead, Popo breadcrumbs and implies that he was lying and Libro is the real Countess to anybody paying attention, before Libro has even hardclaimed. He's constantly talking out of both sides of his mouth, ostensibly to town's benefit, but it could just as easily be purely for his own.
"Okay, Snowblaze has a fairly smart idea and it is pretty townie of her."
Popo's private notes that he provided for his second public defense are "Snow's plan was good idea with a bad side-effect". Popo's first public defense of himself is "the plan was so bad that I had to fakeclaim Countess for the sake of the town". That was literally the previous post from Popo, and he's already changing his tune. So here's a little trick you can pick up from detective shows: as somebody's motivations change, their story can start to change. If somebody tells you a version of events at hour 1, and a different version of events at hour 3, and their circumstances have pretty severely changed in the two hours between...they're lying, and both versions of the story are meant to trick you, and you shouldn't believe either one and should look deeper for the truth.
Popo claims he lies to hide his true thoughts from scumteam and keep them guessing. Maybe. Maybe. But that doesn't change the fact that both of the above lies are concluding "and that's why you shouldn't lynch Popo for fakeclaiming a locktown role". Lying to town about why you shouldn't be lynched...maybe that's kinda squinting at it a bit, but you can see why I'm taking issue with that strategy.
I've started pushing back on the thread at this point, and when it becomes clear I won't be an easy mislynch or an easy claim for scum to add to their info advantage, I'm abruptly townread. As if the only options for reacting to Mr Popo's quote-unquote "argument that AV should be lynched" are flailing around like a wolf caught in a trap or a townie sipping their coffee while reading the thread. On the one hand, we can believe that Town!Popo was scumreading me based on basically nothing, and then later townreading me on basically nothing...or both of them were lies, because he never believed I was guilty and doesn't want to attract my attention cuz the others seem to think I'm good for some reason. Mr Popo's motivations have shifted away from "get AV lynched" to "get AV felt out and maybe pocketed".
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-16, 09:09 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Great, now I'm kind of terrified of Mr Popo. Or possibly of AV. Or both.
This is mostly my infamous paranoia speaking, no need to take it too seriously even after I flip. I'm mostly looking forward to the second part.
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2021-09-16, 10:43 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Because of course I remove a Handmaid. Add another lolme to the list.
I just realised this is something no-one’s really talked about that much yet: what’s wolf!Batcathat’s motivation for fakeclaiming a clear on Libro? The only thing I can think of is “to earn towncred for being helpful” which really doesn’t seem worth it... though then again with one Priest mafia and one dead there’s not really much risk involved, and Batcathat did fakeclaim in Percy Jackson when the benefits were low to non-existent.
I might just be overthinking things. Probably, knowing me. But I’m still worried.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-16, 10:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Fair point, but I want everyone to ask themselves whether it seems likely that I would make the same mistake again after the comedy of errors that was my participation in Percy Jackson.
(Yes, I realize that my present defense if "Book Wombat wasn't that smart" and "I wasn't that dumb". Hardly the iron-clad argument that was requested, I know).
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2021-09-16, 12:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: Mr Popo ISO part 2<As far as town knows, I'm their best player, and also not the Countess. Baners will only bane the countess tonight, so I could get killed. If town is to continue believing I'm town, then I need to give a plausible explanation why wolves wouldn't kill me immediately.>
*clears throat*
"Wolves are leaving me alive to make town paranoid about me for the rest of the game, because that totally balances out all the solving Popo is trying to do"
<Popo you've done it again>
"Everyone is an idiot except me"
<Wait, did I say that part out loud?>
The one siren sound that can get Popo out of my pocket for two seconds: me arguing that we shouldn't give scumteam a free townie death. And then...
"There may be a wolf in the inactives.
I have so many townies that this is actually plausible."
At the same time he's saying "I would die before letting them die", he's also saying "well mathematically I think one of them must be guilty". He's not even bothering to wait for the next post before talking out the other side of his mouth this time. Additionally...
...from a later post, we know that Popo has looked at the previous games she was in. Popo would know that Emmy's activity so far D1 mostly matches her activity D1 in the previous game (where she auto'd). I'd also like to say that technically, she requested I substitute another player in for her role, and if I'd suspected she would auto that game, I likely wouldn't have talked spoilers in the dead chat (since then I could've let one of the dead players take her place). Anyway! The reason this matters is that scum!Popo would see the writing on the wall, see that Emmy was already getting votes for inactivity and knew she'd end up autolynching (a scum autolynch helps town more than scum, but it rarely happens). So popo gets an idea: he knows he's gonna be wrong about the D1 lynch because he's getting it wrong intentionally, but if he keeps missing forever people will trust Popo less. He can either let Emmy auto and maybe trick town into lynching an extra villager, or he can give up a mislynch and a teammate he was going to lose anyway in exchange for some towncred.
And then when it happens, he then says "nobody else can get towncred for joining my wagon, wolves knew emmy was screwed, only I get towncred for it". Okay he didn't phrase it quite like that, but I can guarantee you that was the intended subliminal message. Trust Popo and everything will work out.
Generic WW/Mafia mech talk about how scum behaves when caught. It's an easy way to fill the thread with a lot of conversation that doesn't actually contribute too much because people are already aware of the basic connection - all a dissertation on the "why" does is make you look more solvy than you are. That's part of why I bowed out of the discussion: I realized that the argument was actively distracting me from analyzing posts and trying to solve stuff. And as soon as I bowed out of the discussion that had previously been rather disagreeable, Popo replies with "really we're both sorta right and sorta wrong, it mostly depends on context". As soon as it stopped distracting me, he's burrowing back into my pocket by soothing the wounds of battle.
...y'all remember that post he made about The Process? Way down at the bottom was a thing about Wolfy Diplomacy, about how wolves think about how they're viewed by everybody. They don't get hostile or argumentative because that's likely to get them killed. The nail that sticks out gets hammered down, and all that. The wolf that makes it to endgame almost always charmed their way there, and the person gnashing their teeth and wailing and screaming because they know exactly who the guilty party is and it's so obvious and why are you even considering voting me?!! ...that person does not get townread, because they weren't as pleasant to play with, and people tend to subconsciously associate "nice" with "good".
So having said all that, and knowing that Popo is aware of this particular hurdle...know that he is scumreading me on jokes. Not just me either, Xihirli and gac3 have gotten similar soft touch. Why? He should know better. We're getting townread for being casual and relaxed and witty and funny and fun to have in the game and OH MY GOD THIS IS LITERALLY TEXTBOOK WHY THE HELL AM I BEING TOWNREAD. Things that have occurred since, I can understand why Popo is townreading me. I've still not come around on gac - there's a lot of noise there but not a lot of content. With xihirli, I also don't get it, because there's not even a lot of noise. Popo even makes an direct plea to the wolves not to ever kill Xihirli because she's what would make the game enjoyable to read after Popo's demise.
I don't personally buy into the idea that town doesn't joke around (certainly not unless you wish to suggest that the starting scumteam was Popo/AV/Xihirli/gac3/Snowblaze/Emmy). But Popo seems to have a lot of faith in his method, and yet is ignoring a big part of it, the part that tends to catch endgame wolves? For three players? Y'all can't tell me that's not suspicious.
Ooooo that didn't age well, did it. Oh well, it's not like being wrong on two outta three is that bad, right?
Popo has given his reasons for why gac and I have both traveled from lockscum to locktown (basically overnight for both of us). I still don't like them, it felt like forced reads at the time and it still does (at least for gac, in my mind).
The other siren song that gets Popo out of my pocket is me making publicly questioning his strongest reads. The plan revolves around town being led around by the nose, with me not focusing on scum because I'm getting townread and led around too...but I can be killed if I'm gonna be difficult.
...this is probably the main post that I can't really bring myself to scumread. The full case against JeenLeen, and the full reads list. There's times where it makes sense to me to comment on how Popo's opinion shifts with the wind to suit his own purposes, which might well be victory for scumteam, but past a certain point I kinda just have to admit that admitting you were wrong by publicly changing your mind isn't actually all that bad a thing. God, I'm getting tired of this "scumread everything" bit, and I'm not even out of D1 yet.
After that out-of-the-park JeenLeen case, Popo backs off and votes gac3. Guess he doesn't want his reputation smudged by being on the wagon when it crashes into townie.
*breathes deeply*
Anybody who's played a game with me anytime recently, knows exactly how I feel about anything that sounds like "oh woe is me I'm so sorry I got you lynched what was I thinking you're obviously a townie oh I've stepped in it this time". If you'd like backing for this kinda thing other than my opinion, think of it kinda like confession via prayer: some people pray loudly in the streets and pews where everybody can hear how sorry they are and how much better they'll be, and some people do it quietly in the privacy of their homes. That first kind of person is fishing for brownie points for being evil. "I was bad, but now I'm good, I swear".
A real townie just seethes alone at their computer, angry that the universe dared to declare them wrong.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-16, 12:45 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2006
- Location
- Da Goof (x3)..Is On Fire!
- Gender
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2021-09-16, 01:42 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: Mr Popo ISO part 3"There are four possibilities:
1) I'm right
2) I'm mostly right
3) I'm right
4) I'm wrong (this one isn't possible)"
I gotta respect the hustle.
This is the post where scum!Popo commits to bussing Emmy. He could very well have not even showed up D2 and Emmy still would've died, and he would get the towncred for it. And then my dumb ass is coming up behind, spotting a potential reason for why Emmy instead of rogue_alchemist (since he's implying there's reason to trust Emmy the least of the two), and then I found something, and now Popo doesn't even need to come up with a reason Emmy was the guiltier person - I handed him an excuse on a silver platter. That's the kinda thing we could've come to D5 or whatever when it's Popo's word against Libro's or whoever and soembody asks "so why did you suspect Emmy over RA?", but I ruined it trying to be solvy at night. I got baited hard into looking for an explanation to the unexplainable.
"If I miss on day 2, or if I ever miss twice in a row at ANY time, I'm a wolf 95 percent of the time."
This post came immediately after the post where he committed to bussing his scumbuddy Emmy D2. Gotta make sure he's guaranteed that D2 kill. Gotta make sure he's got enough space to miss D3 without being suspected. Oh and the math rewards this kind of bussing if he can pull the rest off without a hitch:
Game Start: 14 players, 11 town, 3 scum
EoD1: 13 players, 10 town, 3 scum
EoN1: 12 players, 9 town, 3 scum
EoD2: 11 players, 9 town, 2 scum
EoN2: 10 players, 8 town, 2 scum
Autolynch: 9 players, 7 town, 2 scum
EoD3: 8 players, 6 town, 2 scum
EoN3: 7 players, 5 town, 2 scum
EoD4: 6 players, 5 town, 1 scum
EoN4: 5 players, 4 town, 1 scum
EoD5: 4 players, 3 town, 1 scum
EoN5: 3 players, 2 town, 1 scum
That has us going into D6, two townies and Popo. Popo has never missed twice in a row, and he's probably got those two townies at each other's throats and has had them there for days. This works even faster if there's 4 scum to start (and if we started with 5, the game would currently be at 9 players, 5 town, 4 scum, and today is LYLO).
The only way this is scumposting is if it's a ruse somehow. blade is priest 1, and some townie is priest 2. This is scumking Popo building on my "King/Prince cause chaos and townies shouldn't use those powers" to accuse the other priest of being scum. If the other priest ever speaks up, they'll get eaten alive, and Popo will be able to fall back on "huh, maybe it was blade who King'd me after all", and we don't ever have to be the wiser that Popo was king to begin with.
...
Spoiler: Some Rambling...going to get some food, and I realize a few things.
1) I've been doing this game for 10 hours now (and I've been up so long that I'm no longer tired).
2) I already have enough material to both demonstrate my point, as well as to reach a verdict.
Popo takes Action X for Reason Y. "X" is constantly shifting with little rhyme or reason, and is publicly known information (things he says, who he votes, when he moves his vote, things like that). "Y" is the underlying principle that uses Action X to drive towards Popo's win condition (whatever that happens to be); it is difficult to discern, but flows in a very natural way if you can find it. What team Popo is on isn't a variable really (it's unchanging), but we can't have any idea what it is for sure until he flips. We can only look at the Xs and try to discern the Ys, and from there figure out how that helps one team vs another. What I found is that for any given X and Y, if you go in looking for scum, you can find a plausible scummy explanation most of the time. And if you go in looking for town, you can find a plausible townie explanation most of the time.
D1 had a discussion about the importance of consistency, and I can see where the disconnect was: gac3 was calling out the inconsistency in Xs, where Popo's actions and spoken beliefs did not match each other, and seemed to include misinformation for little apparent reason. When I delved into D1 looking for a scummy explanation, I found the Y values that drive Popo's actions.
Popo wants one side to think he's the Countess
Popo wants the Countess to not counterclaim
Popo wants to muddy the water with too many princess claims
Popo wants the Princess to not counterclaim
Popo wants to lynch AvatarVecna
In my ISO, I go on about how these Y values support scumteam, but here's my point: they don't necessarily support scum. You could make an argument that the underlying reasons for these principles is that Popo is town and doesn't want our power roles outed. You could argue that because of Libro's claim, he honestly believed that I was lurking and not moving my vote off Libro on purpose. You could argue that he wanted scum to think he was the Countess so they'd waste a kill on somebody who was not the princess, countess, or even handmaid. The actions haven't changed, the underlying principles driving those actions hasn't changed, but the team changing changes the reasons behind those principles.
Playing a good wolf means playing like a townie. Playing so good as a townie that it's indistinguishable...at least until it's too late to do anything about it. And I can speak from experience when I say, part of being a good townie sometimes is looking scummy on purpose - if you're too towny, if there's a 0% chance of you being doubted or lynched, scumteam will off you. If Libro was as active as Popo, I guarantee you he'd be dead by now. Anyway, the point is that Popo is a very, very good player, and plays in a way that leaves him avenues to escape lynches no matter what he's doing. If it's a web of lies he's weaving, it's a very pretty web and I've had a good deal of fun unraveling to figure out why it was woven the way it is. And because Popo is so good, he plays in a way where basically everything he does could be explained as townie or scummy.
...basically everything. Not everything.
Spoiler: The Quotes That MatterOriginally Posted by AvatarVecna
Sometimes during N1, scum!Popo realizes that Emmy is actually inactive and maybe isn't coming back online. She's going to autolynch unless he can get her in the game (and "in the game" enough that she doesn't get lynched for being missing). Scum!Popo has a choice to make: on the one hand, he can push Emmy as a wagon before D2 even starts, throwing her directly under the bus. She'll die, because Popo is great at choosing town's kill, and Popo gets towncred (regardless of if anybody else gets towncred for joining the wagon). However, the opportunity cost is that Popo didn't get to mislynch a villager. If Popo leaves her be and lets her auto, he gets to mislynch a townie. The opportunity cost is that he doesn't get towncred for lynching an inactive wolf. In both scenarios, though, Popo doesn't have Emmy going into D3. There's nothing that can change that unless she decides to show up, it's out of his hands.
If Popo chooses to bus Emmy, the math I did above has him at final 3 going into D6. But he has to make this decision N1. That means the kills N1-5 and the lynches D2-5 all have to be controlled by Popo, if he's gonna get away with this properly. That's 9 kills to orchestrate, and it's also assuming RA never shows up either. If RA shows up? Popo ends up 3v1. If handmaid ever blocks the kill? 3v1, or worse. If town stops listening to Popo? He'd be lucky if it was 3v1. And in any of those situations, If it's 3v1 going into D6, even if Popo has bussed both his scumbuddies, he'll still end up with two days in a row where he missed (which he's told us is the "lynch me now" warning sign), with him still having one more day to get through.
Popo only busses Emmy if Popo honestly expects to be playing perfect and lucky the rest of the game. And the alternative...is that he tries to get Emmy to just get a post up on D2, which she did anyway. If Scum!Popo doesn't bus Emmy N1, I don't go looking through her activity to see why she's more guilty than RA. if I don't see that, and Popo isn't bussing, Emmy's not getting lynched because Popo and I are the pressure creators behind votes. If Popo can get Emmy to post something like "sorry guys school schedule killing me", my dumb ass might even jump in like "this happened last game too, don't worry everything is going as well as can be, no need to lynch her over it, let's see if we can get a replacement player". I'm sure I don't have to explain to you how much worse this game would be if that had happened.
Popo could've pulled that off. But he didn't. Instead he bussed his scumbuddy?
No.
Popo didn't bus because they're not scumbuddies. The consistency in Popo's Y actions is that they're always working towards the objective, even if it's in a bit of a roundabout fashion. There's a method to the madness, but bussing your own scumbuddy for being inactive is shooting yourself in the foot. Even the "cold hard calculus of bussing" approach basically had to assume Popo plays perfect after the bus. Even when you're as good as Popo, you don't actually bet everything on you being right all the time. The name of the game is "contingency plans".
TL;DR There's a lot of stuff Popo has done that could make sense for both town and scum. But after thinking through the situation, I can't think of an actually good reason to bus Emmy the way he would've had to have done if they were scumbuddies. Popo is Strong Town Lean, but this time it's justified.
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I shall now pass out forever. G'night you beautiful bastards.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-16, 02:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I think you had forgotten to include the Fi Fo part in the rule clarification part of the OP. But it was asked (by me) and answered in the recruitment. I 100% agree the mechanics should be transparent, so I try to think of such things before the game even started.
But sometimes it seems like I am the only one reading the answers to those questions. Or at least the only one to remember
Anyway... I think, for Libro to be scum, the scum team would have to have a Prince without using it and the Countess would have to be on second position in the Queue. This would be a really risky plan for no real gain. Libro doesn't try to profit from his save position to push for an important misslynch. And wolf!Libro would know he doesn't have much time left. One more successful Prince usage and the real Countess would be out, in the open.
Mr Popo, you should use the Prince power on someone you trust. You can even tell us your target, the wolves can't do anything about it. They either kill your target and we have narrator confirmation, or they let your target alive and he/she can claim.
Either way, we will have confirmation.
I don't think I will be able to get really active today. It's 21:00 already and I am not at home yet...Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-16, 03:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I was writing down what I meant to be some final thoughts to share before getting lynched but once I had written them I figured I might as well post them right away. Nothing major but you never know what might help going forward. Those of you too convinced of my guilt to believe a word I say are welcome to come back after my flip.
- gac3 – I was suspecting him early on but he has since sort of fallen off my radar. If I had to guess, I'd probably say town.
- AvatarVecna – It's kind of hard to look past the whole "basically sentenced me to die" part and I still can't decide whether I think it was a clever (and lucky, unless the wolves somehow manipulated BW) wolf plan or an innocent townie coming to a reasonable conclusion. Maybe a very slight town lean in general?
- Xihirli – Maybe a slight town lean but less than before.
- Snowblaze – Still feels wolfy and her "Gosh darnit, I messed up again" attitude isn't helping.
- Libro – Is the Countess, so town. I suppose my death will remove any lingering doubt about this, at least.
- Supagoof – Feels wolfy, but I suspected BW for a lot of the same reasons and that didn't turn out great.
- Mr. Popo – Maybe it's AV's scum-assuming ISO, maybe it's how confident he seems in my guilt (though if that initial stream of consciousness confusion was faked, it was beautifully done) but I don't feel good about Popo. Though the combination of playstyle and unfamiliarity makes him the hardest to analyze.
- Rogan – Probably my strongest town lean now, even if I'm still a little worried it's because we've come to a lot of the same conclusions.
I might end up posting a new one tomorrow after going over my ISOs again. I suppose I should logically at least try to look at Popo and/or AV, but for someone basically working his way through ISOs 101 that feels rather overwhelming.
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2021-09-16, 05:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Would you be angry if I would tell you I don't think you could pull this up?
Because, I don't think you could.
It wasn't specified, but it seems to be common to do so. But meh, if you knew about this, you would have reacted differently.
If you are right... When the game ends, dear book tell me, WTF were you doing? And why? And... why did you list your role in the sig? Did you want someone to notice?
So, Bat? Can you promise to not use your power in an obviously unhelpful way again?
I mean, it probably is hard to use it well, but you can at least try to verify a claim that is not locked in anyway.
If there is a Countess Counterclaim from the Prince target tomorrow, Libro will die and flip scum. Afterwards, you will die and flip scum.
If there is a new Prince or a new Handmaid, there isn't even an theoretical chance of Libro being fake. This is not a proof for your innocence, but you will have another day and night to be helpful. And, depending on the other flips (a nk is nearly guaranteed to happen by now, since one maiden is dead and the other discarded (assuming Xi is honest)) we could clear you by unpairing.
Spoiler: Crazy Mech Question
Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role? Like, a guard targets someone without providing a role to guess.
The Prince could change the role and the new role could resolve.
If this is possible, I would suggest the following (assuming honest claims of Emmy, Xi and Snow/Popo):
Popo targets BCH, BCH targets me, I target one of my top townies.
BCH will become either the Prince or the maid.
If BCH becomes the maid, I will be protected.
Else, he will be a Prince and use his power on me, so I will be the Maid.
Some other role could target me, to see if I am protected or not. If I am protected, BCH was the Maid and followed the plan. If I am not protected, I can either claim my role or will be dead. One way or the other, my role will be public. If I am the Maid, BCH was following the plan and is a Prince now. If I am not the maid, BCH is either the Countess and Libro lied or, more likely, BCH didn't follow the plan. Either way, BCH should probably die. If BCH flips town, he will flip Countess. Or King, I guess. In which case either Snow or Libro will die. Oh, or he flips Guard, in which case Mr Popo either didn't want to do his part, or he was kinged (again).
And I guess, I should stop here, since my whole plan relies on Caos answer on the question.
Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role?
Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-16, 05:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
It's sweet of you to think I'll get the chance to use my power again, but sure, if I do I'm very open to suggestions. It is indeed hard to properly use. Using it on Libro was very unlikely to pay off (though it probably getting me killed was certainly unexpected) and last night's use was even less so (at best I could've trusted someone else completely).
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I'm not sure I completely follow your plan, but why would this even be necessary? Can't I just target you with a normal guess?
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2021-09-16, 05:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Seems proper sleep isn't happening. Let's see what I can get done. Here's my current leans.
Libro: Uncounterclaimed Countess is town 99% of the time, and the only situation were they're guilty requires a good deal of bad luck for town and the princes to not be doing their job. One more successful Prince'ing will seal the deal. If Libro is our final wolf, then Mr Popo will Prince somebody tonight, Snowblaze won't roleblock Popo, and Popo will tell his baron buddy who he Prince'd. In the morning, baron buddy points at the person and asks them if they got the Countess role; either they say "yes" and we thunderdome them and Libro, or they say "no" and Libro is clear. The only potential flaw in this plan is the possibility we started with 4 wolves.
Mr Popo: The only way he's scum is if he gave up a mislynch to bus his inactive scumbuddy for towncred. I don't see that happening, Mr Popo's position has never been that tenuous.
Rogan: Very solvy, willing to stick up to his principles and stand up for his votes. His motivations and actions feel consistent.
Snowblaze: I recall liking their ISO for effort and solviness, but I didn't have a specific reason to read them one way or the other (at least not anywhere near the strength of Popo).
Xihirli: I've yet to see anything from Xihirli that couldn't be easily faked. It's all pretty casual and laidback and going with the flow. Prime real estate for a coasting wolf.
Supagoof: Doesn't have much, and what he does have ain't great. I don't think it's nearly damning as Popo seems to, though.
gac3: Big on noise, low on content (which is admittedly something I've seen from gac before). If BCH was already dead, I'd probably be putting a case together on gac3 despite Popo's protests.
Batcathat: Is only innocent if BW didn't bane Libro N1. Can only be cleared by Libro, or by a guard who also successfully targeted Libro. Everybody except Libro has already posted D3, and none of them have confirmed BCH's story.
All that being said...Popo made a good point the other day. Something like "the closer we get to endgame, the higher the bar for towniness gets". So everybody except Libro and Popo probably needs to be re-ISO'd either late today or early tomorrow.
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I think it's more of a "in future games, maybe don't scry the guy who's locktown and also scry-baned?" kinda thing. You aren't getting another power usage this game unless Libro informs us that BW, the other handmaid, and Libro all screwed up N1.
I'm not sure I completely follow your plan, but why would this even be necessary? Can't I just target you with a normal guess?
Batcathat is a guard, and thinks they'll get Prince'd in the night, into being a Baron. Guard targets one person and makes a role guess, while Baron targets two people. The question is, can Batcathat the Guard submit "I target Rogan and Mr Popo" for their night action? This action would be meaningless for a guard and so would waste the guard power, but if BCH is prince'd into being a Baron, suddenly that would be a legal move for the baron. So the question is whether submitting powers as if you were a different role is legal in the first place, or if you have to submit legal actions for the role you are, because the Princes are supposed to work as a maybe-roleblock.
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If I'm reading this correctly, your reads are in the following order?
Libro
Rogan
gac3
Xihirli
AvatarVecna
Supagoof
Mr Popo
Snowblaze
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
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My Homebrew
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2021-09-16, 05:55 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-16, 05:58 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
You are here and talking. Goof on the other hand continues to be mostly silent. Usually, this would make you the better target, since your flip would yield more info. But I don't want to reward silence anymore...
And at least, you claimed an action for n1. Goof claimed he intended to target me, but had forgotten to do anything. He didn't even say what he had hoped to learn...
So, right now, I would rather vote Goof than you. Especially when you are willing to work with us.
I can't tell you exactly what to do. (Except my crazy plan). If I did so, wolves would learn about the plan as well and they could interfere. Or, if you are a wolf, you could follow the plan if it doesn't help town, but do something else if it could help your allies.
If you come up with an idea yourself, you can state your plan and the results and everyone still alive can judge if this makes sense as a villager.
Unless I mix some rules up, the guards action is incompatible with the Prince/Maid power. A Baron needs two targets, a Guard a Target and Role. Both supply more to their action than one target, so a normal single target action role like Maid or Prince will fail.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-16, 06:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2021-09-16, 06:04 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Dan is the King, Ellie is the Prince, Frank is the Guard.
Dan targets Frank, Ellie targets Frank, Frank guesses "Dan is the Handmaid".
In turn order:
Dan's ability works. Frank becomes the King, Dan becomes the Guard.
Frank's action (guessing Dan as the Handmaid) is currently invalid.
So, it seems like a guard who becomes another role would not be able to use it.
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But maybe, it's specifically becoming the king that makes the action invalid?Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-16, 06:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
gac3: Big on noise, low on content (which is admittedly something I've seen from gac before). If BCH was already dead, I'd probably be putting a case together on gac3 despite Popo's protests.
Okay I'll go ahead and make a list too since everyone else is...
Libro
Rogan
Xi
AV
Mr. Popo
Supagoof
Snowblaze
Batcathat
Though the last one is really me following with things. I'm still surprised that Supagoof and Snow aren't our top suspects. Especially since Mr. Popo had so adamantly been sure that Snow and Supagoof were the next two to be killed no matter what, with the possible exception of Book. I know why book is no longer on the table but still.Last edited by gac3; 2021-09-17 at 11:59 AM.