Love Letter Mafia

[Snowblaze]

...had a realisation. Xihirli is a wolf.

Emmy wouldn't have self-targeted in worlds where the discard pile contains two Guards, because she gains nothing from that.

Since we know Emmy did self-target from AV's tracking, we can therefore conclude that the discard pile didn't contain two Guards.

We know Emmy got a Guard night one, because she flipped Guard. Which means the other person claiming to have become a Guard night one, Xihirli, must be lying.

We can also plausibly infer that the second Baron, the one who connected me with Xihirli, is scum. Because why would a town Baron connect the one who's been flying under the radar and the one who's likely to die tomorrow because she's widely suspected?

And we know that the Baron is likely in the group of guard claimants. So what makes most sense is that Xihirli is a lying wolf and also the Baron.

There's also no evidence that there was a second QT night one (please correct me if someone else was QTed night one) which implies that the Baron was an unused role night one.

...either that or I've made a large mistake somewhere.

[AvatarVecna]

Everybody needs to re-evaluate their reads on me. ~17 hours left in D3. BCH is caught regardless of what alignment I am, and we can afford a mislynch unless game started with 5 scum and today is LYLO. There's no way this game started 9-5 so we should be fine.

You selected your post to edit it, copied the contend and went back without really changing anything. Next, you quoted your post. You replaced the auto generated content with the post you copied in step 1.
Is this correct? Or is there another, simpler way to quote a post without losing the quotes in it?

That's really the only way to do it, to the best of my knowledge. If there's a better way, I'm not aware of it. You could maybe ask in the "forum questions" subforum.

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As for revealing me, eh. At this point I was on the fence about just saying it anyways. Now I don't have to decide.

My original plan was "Mr. Popo seems town and better than me. QT with him night one. Night two: link Mr. Popo with whoever they want." But Mr. Popo was convinced they would die and gave me a whole bunch of stuff I was supposed to post today. So I connected you to me instead.

I guess that's sensible enough, although I don't think you're giving yourself enough credit. More than a few times when I've done my QT-mess thing and then died, you've been there to pick up the pieces and put stuff together.

[gac3]

Everybody needs to re-evaluate their reads on me. ~17 hours left in D3. BCH is caught regardless of what alignment I am, and we can afford a mislynch unless game started with 5 scum and today is LYLO. There's no way this game started 9-5 so we should be fine.



That's really the only way to do it, to the best of my knowledge. If there's a better way, I'm not aware of it. You could maybe ask in the "forum questions" subforum.

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I guess that's sensible enough, although I don't think you're giving yourself enough credit. More than a few times when I've done my QT-mess thing and then died, you've been there to pick up the pieces and put stuff together.

That's true enough. That's actually where I shine. Coordinating. Getting people to trust me one on one. Sorting through lies a comparing individual notesm. Open QT games are when I end up most dangerous to wolves. With this recent push to encourage moving away from those, my underdeveloped skill in playing the traditional way is becoming more obvious.

That said, between a busy week or so keeping me less caught up than I usually like and the actual limits of the power meaning I'll probably functionally get 3ish QTs max, it seemed prudent to pick strong traditional playing townie and try to form a network around them.

[Batcathat]

...had a realisation. Xihirli is a wolf.

I can't find any flaws in the reasoning, except maybe AV could be lying (even if it seems like a weird lie, even from a wolf), but right now I don't have a ton of confidence in either my own grasp of the mechanics or you. Will have to think about it and see if anyone else spots any holes or red flags I might be missing right now.

[Rogan]

Player List: gac3 AvatarVecna Xihirli BatCatHat Snowblaze Libro Supagoof Mr. Popo Rogan Rogue_Alchemist Book Wombat EmmyNecromancer bladescape JeenLeen

Role List: Countess King Prince Prince Handmaid Baron Baron Priest Guard Guard Guard Princess Annette Handmaid Ursula Guard Parolles Priest Helenus Guard Odette

Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim.

BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another.

Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.

Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 action not claimed?

Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

RA is Princes. No action possible.
BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.

Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim

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Xis claim can't be true unless someone else is lying. One guard has to be lying. One Baron is unaccounted for.

The blue claims are extremely unlikely to be fake. The black ones are neutral.

Please remember, being truthful about the role is not the same as being town. Same thing for lying and scum, but town would need to have a good reason.

[AvatarVecna]

...had a realisation. Xihirli is a wolf.

[...]

...either that or I've made a large mistake somewhere.

I'm suspicious of Xihirli and wanna see more from her, but there's some definite holes in this explanation. The main one is that one of two things is the truth:

1) Scum!Baron (possibly Xihirli) creates a QT between Snowblaze and Xihirli to get two townies at each other's throats going into mid-game. They then lie about their role for...some reason?

2) Town!Baron (possibly Xihirli) created a QT between Snowblaze and Xihirli to try and get a secondary town network forming just in case Popo's network doesn't quite pan out. The more townies are able to chat together in private, the more information town has that scumteam doesn't have access to. I personally think it's a bad idea to do this and not have it be yourself, but the other baron had a situation where it made sense, so who knows - maybe it's Town!Supagoof, and they were thinking "I shouldn't make a network between me and Snow because either of us could be dead before we could even talk together". Anyway, regardless of who the town!Baron is, they then lie about their role (either privately or publicly) for...some reason?

There's other issues with the theory, but this is the main one: why lie about being baron? No role is specifically linked to alignment except Princess and Countess. Town knows Baron isn't scum-aligned so would have little reason to lie except avoiding claiming (either avoiding publicly claiming when it can hurt town more than scum, or privately claiming to somebody they maybe don't trust). Why claim guard instead? Scum knows Baron isn't town-aligned, so why claim guard and potentially get caught once a mass-claim happens? Why not just claim baron?

There's three things I can think of as explanations for the lie:

1) The liar is scum-aligned, and is so used to scumteam having to lie about what their role name is, that they just defaulted to it on reflex without regard to this specific game's weird role mechanics. This is the same reason you're reflexively scumreading the liar - because lying about your role is just default scum behavior.

2) The liar is town-aligned, but didn't feel comfortable claiming truthfully when there wasn't a wagon on them, so they made a fakeclaim.

3) The liar is Xihirli, who might be lying for one of the above reasons, but also might be lying for no reason other than "lying to people is fun".

All that said, one of them is definitely lying for some reason. If I were ordering the claimants from most likely lying to least, it'd probably be:

1) Xihirli. I'm still pretty sure that the QT was set up by one of the two of you, and if it was Snowblaze, Popo would know and would've called Snowblaze out for lying about being Prince.

2) Batcathat. They're already lying about rolescrying Libro N1, so why not lie about both things? Remember, this was done D2 when there were a lot fewer people claiming or dead, it was a much safer fakeclaim at the time.

3) Supagoof. The post where he claims, he wasn't the main person in line for the lynch and Popo called out like half-a-dozen suspicious behaviors in that. Speaking of, this is why I assumed Supagoof was claiming guard instead of Priest at the time, and didn't think that might be what set off Popo until a couple days later - I thought that even if it was a fake-claim, nobody would claim Priest regardless of their alignment. It wasn't until later that I remembered that Popo didn't actually know where the Priest was the way I did, and so he might've read Supagoof's post as a priest claim, which is why I called the argument out and shot it down as a potential scumslip.

4) Rogan. Regardless of alignment, I think Rogan saw five guard-claimants and knew he was a guard, so this would be an easy way to get town to lynch somebody. If he's town, he might think that only scum lies about their alignment and he's helped catch a wolf; if he's scum, he knows that counterclaiming gets him some easy towncred and gets town lynching one of the other guard claimants.

(I wanna clarify: this list isn't in order of "scummiest to towniest" of the guard claimants, it's a "pants-on-fire-o-meter". Rogan could be telling the truth as scum, Supagoof could be lying as town. I just think there's potential explanations besides "Xihirli lied for unclear reasons because she's a wolf".

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[COLOR=Green]BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.

Why not Popo? Handmaid can't block King.

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Oh wait I see, it's because of gac's Baron power on Popo and gac, that's the reason BW couldn't have baned Popo N1. Nvm

[Rogan]

By the way, I have pointed out that there has to be a lying guard and it's more likely to be Xi than anybody else before.
I didn't vote right away to give Xi a chance to defend herself and to check my reasoning.
Xi can still try to defend herself and there could be strategic reasons for voting someone else first, even if we think Xi is guilty. The Baron power can't be used for evil if you are aware of it, after all.

[Batcathat]

BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another.

I mentioned it in my ISO on Xi, I checked if she was the Princess N2. I'm the first to admit this probably wasn't the most optimal use of the power either, but I'm having trouble finding good ways to use it and I figured "Xi might be jokingly imply she's the Princess while actually being the Princess" seemed possible. I could have checked some claim, but with most roles being of either alignment I wasn't sure how helpful it'd be.

[Xihirli]

...had a realisation. Xihirli is a wolf.

Emmy wouldn't have self-targeted in worlds where the discard pile contains two Guards, because she gains nothing from that.

Since we know Emmy did self-target from AV's tracking, we can therefore conclude that the discard pile didn't contain two Guards.

We know Emmy got a Guard night one, because she flipped Guard. Which means the other person claiming to have become a Guard night one, Xihirli, must be lying.

We can also plausibly infer that the second Baron, the one who connected me with Xihirli, is scum. Because why would a town Baron connect the one who's been flying under the radar and the one who's likely to die tomorrow because she's widely suspected?

And we know that the Baron is likely in the group of guard claimants. So what makes most sense is that Xihirli is a lying wolf and also the Baron.

There's also no evidence that there was a second QT night one (please correct me if someone else was QTed night one) which implies that the Baron was an unused role night one.

...either that or I've made a large mistake somewhere.

My bad on the name of the role you gave me, I am baron. Whichever one lets ne set up two people talking like I did tonight. But why is being the baron bad?

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And I’d be happy to communicate my reasons for connecting us tonight, Snowblaze, when we can converse more privately.

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There are a lot of names and mechanics to keep track of, okay?

[Batcathat]

My bad on the name of the role you gave me, I am baron. Whichever one lets ne set up two people talking like I did tonight. But why is being the baron bad?

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And I’d be happy to communicate my reasons for connecting us tonight, Snowblaze, when we can converse more privately.

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There are a lot of names and mechanics to keep track of, okay?

The mechanics are tricky and currently I'm very open to alternative explanations to what seems like a smoking gun for some reason but this does not convince me, Xihirli.

[Rogan]

4) Rogan. Regardless of alignment, I think Rogan saw five guard-claimants and knew he was a guard, so this would be an easy way to get town to lynch somebody. If he's town, he might think that only scum lies about their alignment and he's helped catch a wolf; if he's scum, he knows that counterclaiming gets him some easy towncred and gets town lynching one of the other guard claimants.

I know there are multiple reasons to lie. See Jeen in Crazy or PJ, night 1 each. Or town!Mr Popo here, regarding the countess.
If I catch someone lying, I want an explanation. Sometimes I can guess this explanation, sometimes it remains a mystery.

I would not claim for my own good. My actions could all be lies, based on believing the previous claims. Part of the limits of my role, I guess. Which is also why I can feel Bats frustration. What are you going to do with this kind of scry? It's more useful for the wolves, they will want to know who the maiden is or who could track them. For town? It is only helpful to back up someone else's claim.

To clarify why I think Xi is the most likely lier:

For there to be a Baron from day 1, they would have to be either wolf or very unlucky. Or perhaps not grasping the whole situation.
There is only one Baron power usage confirmed/claimed for n1 right now. So either, the Baron power failed - wolf or stupid town. (Hitting a Handmaid target and not telling us while BCH is on the chopping block for claiming an action on the most likely Maid target.)
The other possibility is, there was a new Baron. In this case, the only thing that makes sense is, Xi is the new Baron. She admitted to being Prince'ed. She is one of the QT targets.

[AvatarVecna]

I know there are multiple reasons to lie. See Jeen in Crazy or PJ, night 1 each. Or town!Mr Popo here, regarding the countess.
If I catch someone lying, I want an explanation. Sometimes I can guess this explanation, sometimes it remains a mystery.

I would not claim for my own good. My actions could all be lies, based on believing the previous claims. Part of the limits of my role, I guess. Which is also why I can feel Bats frustration. What are you going to do with this kind of scry? It's more useful for the wolves, they will want to know who the maiden is or who could track them. For town? It is only helpful to back up someone else's claim.

To clarify why I think Xi is the most likely lier:

For there to be a Baron from day 1, they would have to be either wolf or very unlucky. Or perhaps not grasping the whole situation.
There is only one Baron power usage confirmed/claimed for n1 right now. So either, the Baron power failed - wolf or stupid town. (Hitting a Handmaid target and not telling us while BCH is on the chopping block for claiming an action on the most likely Maid target.)
The other possibility is, there was a new Baron. In this case, the only thing that makes sense is, Xi is the new Baron. She admitted to being Prince'ed. She is one of the QT targets.

Scroll up, she's claiming she got confused on mechanic and brainfarted when posting. Idk how easy it is to forget your own rolename though - maybe easier when you've been Prince'd, but it still NAGL. There's some plausible lies that can be pro-town, but "I lied by accident because I forgot what my role was called" doesn't seem like one of them. It really feels like Xihirli is either coasting along playing super-casually, or wants to look less checked-in than she is.

[Snowblaze]

...okay.

Being the Baron is bad because you were previously claiming to be something else.

On the one hand... "oops, sorry, I claimed the wrong role" is exactly what I did in Percy Jackson. On the other, I don't necessarily see why wolf!Xihirli would do that???

Will think about it.

[Rogan]

I mentioned it in my ISO on Xi, I checked if she was the Princess N2. I'm the first to admit this probably wasn't the most optimal use of the power either, but I'm having trouble finding good ways to use it and I figured "Xi might be jokingly imply she's the Princess while actually being the Princess" seemed possible. I could have checked some claim, but with most roles being of either alignment I wasn't sure how helpful it'd be.

Ah so it was hidden there. Good to know I didn't imagine seeing it.
This use of action is mechanicaly about as bad as the first, IÂ’m afraid. Asking for the princess will basically never get a 'Yes' as long as the countess is alive. The countess would not want to let an unknown know they guessed right. So you either get No, if the countess is not protected for two nights in a row, without the wolves taking advantage. Or you get an invalid target. The last thing might let you speculate about the meaning about your result, but other than that? It's wasted.

My bad on the name of the role you gave me, I am baron. Whichever one lets ne set up two people talking like I did tonight. But why is being the baron bad?

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And IÂ’d be happy to communicate my reasons for connecting us tonight, Snowblaze, when we can converse more privately.

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There are a lot of names and mechanics to keep track of, okay?

No good reason given. I think, this is terribly ironic. Xi is using a Snows gambit on Snow. (Hey, I have mixed up the name)

But okay let's see if this is possible to come from a Villager...?
What kind of reason would Xi have to claim guard, while at the same time setting up a QT with Snow? It seems like a terrible move. Can anybody see a reason that won't turn into WIFOM?

Most guards were known. Wolf!Xi would not want to bet on not being called out as an imposter. Town!Xi would gain nothing from a fake.

What about faking not!Baron?
Town!Xi would not want to do this. Wolves would know Xi is lying, they would gain additional info to use against her.
Wolf!Xi has no reason to fake it either. Not after she included herself in the QT.

So, in conclusion, Xi had nothing to gain, regardless of alignment.
There is only one problem. It assumes Xi would play this straight. She could do it to gain the option to get into exactly this kind of situation she is right now, simply because it's funny.

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Scroll up, she's claiming she got confused on mechanic and brainfarted when posting.

I was Ninja'ed. And I made a post addressing this When I saw it.

[Batcathat]

Ah so it was hidden there. Good to know I didn't imagine seeing it.
This use of action is mechanicaly about as bad as the first, IÂ’m afraid. Asking for the princess will basically never get a 'Yes' as long as the countess is alive. The countess would not want to let an unknown know they guessed right. So you either get No, if the countess is not protected for two nights in a row, without the wolves taking advantage. Or you get an invalid target. The last thing might let you speculate about the meaning about your result, but other than that? It's wasted.

Sure, I mostly really wanted to have someone (besides Libro) I knew I could trust completely and was lacking in other ideas.

It's funny how it seems like this lynch might come down to "which one honestly screwed up and which one is a lying lier". I suppose there's a chance Xi's innocent too, but that just seem too lucky (or possibly clever) on the part of the wolves.

[Supagoof]

Skimming through... It appears my role has been outed.

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Until Mr. Popo told me that they were going to die as if it was gospel truth, I wasn't going to use my power on me last night.

I didn't out you, I asked if you could be outed, because I
a. Used my power on you night 2
b. Was successful in my guess on you night 2.

As for revealing me, eh. At this point I was on the fence about just saying it anyways. Now I don't have to decide.

My action night 2 was tho check that Gac3 was the Baron. I was successful, so I will confirm this.

Night 1 - I forgot to send an action in. I wasn't blocked or interfered with, I just plain forgot. That's on me, as I was away from checking the thread from Thu afternoon to Monday morning (CST time.). If this is the prime reason why I'm still getting cast shades about being a wolf, so be it. I'll be less defensive now about you guys always putting me as "Wolfish" instead of "Townish", and for other reasons.*

Since I can only see advantages to claiming at this point - I am the Guard. My role hasn't been switched.

*Other reasons - this weekend, I'll be AFK again as I'm taking my boys camping. Tonight IRL - I'll be taking my wife out for our anniversary. (16 years!). So I doubt I'll be posting as much. If Caoimhin is ok with it, I'll send a night action in early. I shall try to reveal said results of scry via my phone whilst I'm camping.

[Mr Popo]

All that said, one of them is definitely lying for some reason. If I were ordering the claimants from most likely lying to least, it'd probably be:

1) Xihirli. I'm still pretty sure that the QT was set up by one of the two of you, and if it was Snowblaze, Popo would know and would've called Snowblaze out for lying about being Prince.

2) Batcathat. They're already lying about rolescrying Libro N1, so why not lie about both things? Remember, this was done D2 when there were a lot fewer people claiming or dead, it was a much safer fakeclaim at the time.

3) Supagoof. The post where he claims, he wasn't the main person in line for the lynch and Popo called out like half-a-dozen suspicious behaviors in that. Speaking of, this is why I assumed Supagoof was claiming guard instead of Priest at the time, and didn't think that might be what set off Popo until a couple days later - I thought that even if it was a fake-claim, nobody would claim Priest regardless of their alignment. It wasn't until later that I remembered that Popo didn't actually know where the Priest was the way I did, and so he might've read Supagoof's post as a priest claim, which is why I called the argument out and shot it down as a potential scumslip.

4) Rogan. Regardless of alignment, I think Rogan saw five guard-claimants and knew he was a guard, so this would be an easy way to get town to lynch somebody. If he's town, he might think that only scum lies about their alignment and he's helped catch a wolf; if he's scum, he knows that counterclaiming gets him some easy towncred and gets town lynching one of the other guard claimants.

(I wanna clarify: this list isn't in order of "scummiest to towniest" of the guard claimants, it's a "pants-on-fire-o-meter". Rogan could be telling the truth as scum, Supagoof could be lying as town. I just think there's potential explanations besides "Xihirli lied for unclear reasons because she's a wolf".

Xihirli

Which makes me immensely sad. Next, hit BatCatHat, and then I think Supagoof is suspect if either of the before 2 flips town. Snow seems fine to me now. Gac is always town to me based on our interactions in that thread. AV is always town. Libro always town mechanically.

It sucks to suck and I don't get to have a game that is a shiny sparkling example of great solving on my resume here, but I have absolutely no shame about reversing, and I absolutely enjoy actually getting fooled once in a while.

Rogan does not ping me as scummy, and I love Snow's approach to the game, despite thinking the end result of her initial idea would be not great.

Xi and BatCat are two players I have felt great about before today, yet had fewer and fewer actual reasons to town read and said so on day 2.

Wanting to be right and lingering beliefs explains why I kept tunneling elsewhere. I also thought Goof literally claimed handmaiden and that should be a wolf claim based on how it happened, but that is literally not correct.

Sorry, guess I am mediocre to bad this game. This happens sometimes. I found the inactive scummo because I put in the effort, but that isn't exactly a hard read, and if I miss the other two, it's always a bad game, not a good one, since I put em both in my town.

I used to call myself the Roomba, because I do bump into scummy townies and accuse them a lot, then reverse the read when I have reasons. I eventually get there if I stay alive.

This is the 0 for 3 game, which doesn't happen a lot, but I always expect it will happen this game, every game.

I do not have good instincts, I have a process that helps me get there despite bad initial gut reads, particularly on day one.

Roomba gonna Roomba. I don't care if it looks like flailing incompetence and frantic blind guesswork, because that is what the game literally is all about. As long as, in the end, all the mafia are dead.

Dead and buried. And then we win as a team more instead of me finding all the scums or all minus one, which is a delight.

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I have to go to work.

I have not done a full and complete process on either Xi or Batcathat.

Most of my processes have been stalled due to family emergency, 30 hours of no sleep, then switching to a day sleep and work night schedule, and work and sleep and travel has sucked up all my time, and the 3 hours I had to solve this AM were mostly garbage due to constantly needing to help the kiddo.

I couldn't do any deep dives all I could do was state my surface level thoughts.

I hate to hit Xi without a full and complete process, I hate to hit Bat without a full and complete process.

Bat is basically outed for lying I believe, and if that is somehow wrong, then hitting outside of Bat increases the odds of hitting scum anyway.

So Bat is a trivial future yeet or today yeet if people disagree on Xi.

Xi is the one who, if mafia, will be the hardest to bring down, and it risks the most credibility capital aka Popo funbucks when wrong.

I gotta do it because the game is trivial if it is Xi and Bat, because Bat is basically outed, and Xi being doomed and flips wolf ends the game pretty well.

I am always looking for the shot that kills the wolf team as opposed to just the lowest hanging wolf.

However, that's a strategy, and if town consensus cannot get there, "a Cat is fine as well."

Sorry I keep bumping into walls. Game setup is confusing to me in the extreme and not my forte, and I am in another game, and real life is taking a massive dump on my solve strength.

Excuses no, facts yes. I am still responsible for my wrongness where and when I am wrong. In case that's not clear.

AV, I completely read your iso of me because none of the townies ever will.

I was amazed at how annoyed I got during the first 2 parts, because you are never a wolf here, and I am not a wolf, and your ability to frame everything I did as wolfy was remarkably persuasive. As in, if I do not know I am town, if you kept going and believed in that belief, I dunk that guy.

That looks like a wolfy mastermind at work.

When you finally reached all the stuff that breaks away from it and leaves only the town version of me remaining as possible, I breathed a sigh of relief.

There is a level of wolfy I am capable of, and it's any level you can think of. Level 9, we'll call it.

But there's also a level of villagery I am capable of, and it's one level higher than that, so I can get clear.

And by level of villagery, I don't mean accurate. I mean, "this guy is not a wolf ever." Not my focus this game, but a direct side effect of killing wolves faster than is viable for any wolf.

And kudos on all your solving because it was leagues more fact-finding than mine was. Mine was more pressure and town-finding, and a bit too eager on the town finding. Wanting to narrow it down to the exact team too quickly, forcing town reads instead of letting them naturally develop.

If the wolves were Goof or Blaze, that pressure always kills them.

Blaze reacted the best to it, and Goof... is completely the chillest guy. So chill.

I cannot clear him for it because I already used the chill under fire towntell on gac3 and Vecna.

It's trivial to fake here if you try hard enough.

At the same time, I lost my best evidence against goof since he never claimed handmaiden.

[Rogan]

<Snip>

Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim. Xi changed claim to Baron, mixing up role names.

BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another. N2 action to guess Xi is Princess. Answer no. Bad decision from mech standpoint. But in line with the other explanation.

Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.

Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 to guess gac as Baron. Answer Yes. No contradiction, but no new info either.

Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

RA is Princes. No action possible.
BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.

Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim

---

Updated the list. New things in bold. I made a new post for it in order to allow quoting, if necessary.

Xis change of claim strengthens the Guard claims. That's Goof, Bat and Me.

Xis original claim makes no sense for either alignment, at least not in my mind. So it was either a mind game, or an honest mistake.

Goof has RL reasons for being quiet. Frustrating, but probably true.
I will have problems being active myself the next ig day.
Sunday is a family gathering, monday is work day. I try to be active near EoD.

---

Goof, why did you pick gac and Baron? What made you pick this combination?
What did you hope to learn night 1?

[Mr Popo]

Because my process is so drastically not complete on either suspect, please feel free to consolidate onto Xi and Bat, but feel free to strongly second guess either suspect, and put one of them up against whoever your personal top suspect is.

I will be back before end of round, barely. only just barely.

Please create and maintain a current vote tally so I can vote competently when I return, without having to dig for the votes.

- - - Updated - - -

Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim. Xi changed claim to Baron, mixing up role names.

BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another. N2 action to guess Xi is Princess. Answer no. Bad decision from mech standpoint. But in line with the other explanation.

Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.

Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 to guess gac as Baron. Answer Yes. No contradiction, but no new info either.

Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

RA is Princes. No action possible.
BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.

Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim

---

Updated the list. New things in bold. I made a new post for it in order to allow quoting, if necessary.

Xis change of claim strengthens the Guard claims. That's Goof, Bat and Me.

Xis original claim makes no sense for either alignment, at least not in my mind. So it was either a mind game, or an honest mistake.

Goof has RL reasons for being quiet. Frustrating, but probably true.
I will have problems being active myself the next ig day.
Sunday is a family gathering, monday is work day. I try to be active near EoD.

---

Goof, why did you pick gac and Baron? What made you pick this combination?
What did you hope to learn night 1?

This is basically an instant snapshot of my current head state.

It's the claims, the claims are truly bad.

Handmaiden is a wolfy thing for town to have 2 of. Altering your role claim under pressure. Therefore Xihirli. And an iso where I am reading Xi as a wolf reads wolfy legitimately. My reasons to town read Xi vanished on day 2 and I still maintained the belief purely based on good feelings alone.

Batcat's claim is wildly wolfy, as bad as Emmy's.

Goof's is still iffy because it should have been easy to guess that gac was the one who baroned me.

And the wolf team may have been able to confirm it with a guard power as well, why not.

So those are my top wolves. All of which were townread by me day one, so it is the zero for 3 game.

I only redeemed myself as not straight up garbage by personally finding Emmy due to her being active and not talking versus Rogan being inactive.

I didn't talk about it explicitly, because I wanted others to use their townie brains and figure it out, and then, if they do, they can have a town read.

Wolves usually react by resisting it, because it wasn't well argued. Deliberately so.

- - - Updated - - -

These post edits I keep making are either typo corrections or editing out bad language that may not be allowed on this site.

My apologies. Just letting everyone know.

- - - Updated - - -

AvatarVecna shouldn't be the priest, that got stolen from me by a wolf, and AV isn't a wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

Please quote this for me.

All of that should be incorrect, as in all of that is literally not something that can have happened.

Blades is a priest and began as priest and is dead, and I began as priest.

AV can't have gotten my priest power N1 and used it to target Emmy, because there are only 2 priests, and mine was stolen N1.

I know for a fact that gac targeted gac and me on N2.

So where is all of this coming from?

Again, AV should be never a wolf by cold read.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: AV Priest quote

Show

Pre-game, I get the Priest card. I'm not fond of playing watcher, because I tend to die early, and I would've preferred to be Baron and get a few private chat shenanigans going, but whatever, gotta deal with the cards I'm dealt. I'm gone for most of D1 and come in to be a bit solvy while there's still daylight. A player I'm unfamiliar with (Mr Popo) seems to be very good at the game, in a way I'm used to being on the other side of. He's townreading me based on "not flailing when a few people are voting me", so I suspect pocketing a little bit...but because he's so good, I'd have to be stupid not to suspect him at least a little bit regardless of what's going on, so that goes on a backburner.

N1, we get a little ways through and Mr Popo is claiming that he wants to kill an inactive D2, preferably Emmy because "she should've been here". I go look at the activity of the two inactives, and sure enough, rogue_alchemist hadn't bee on the forum in days, while Emmy had been on earlier in the night phase. Up until now, I wasn't really sure who to Priest, and had been waffling between bladescape, Xihirli, and Popo (players I'd be particularly worried about because of my difficulty in reading them). But this gave me something substantial to test:

If Emmy was actually inactive, then Priesting her wouldn't come up with any information. She's probably just having a rough time with life again, so I could try and dissuade the wagon the next day. I expect to die early anyway, and we've got a backup watcher, so I might even survive N2 if I claim D2 to protect Emmy. On the other hand, if she uses a power and doesn't speak up N1 or D2, Popo and I pushing the wagon should be enough to get her lynched because our momentum is too strong for most players. And if the usual nonsense of "why are you lynching an inactive, she hasn't even done anything, stop wasting the lynch on somebody who's gonna end up being town and actually hunt for wolves" comes up, I can respond with "actually, I'm town watcher, and I saw Emmy use her power last night". Plus, I do kinda suspect her of being scum for that weirdness in her activity, so if it turns out she targeted (for example) Xihirli, and then when we kill her she flips Scum!Guard, I know that Xihirli is probably innocent because scumteam was spending a role-scry on her from a player nobody should've known was in the game at that point.



This is the post that killed my plans to claim D2 if it became necessary to get Emmy checked. I'm now the only remaining town watcher in a game that has no seers. There's no way in hell I'm claiming unless my life is on the line or I feel not claiming would be handing scum victory somehow. I will explain why I think not claiming today would've been a mistake.

I saw Emmy target target herself. Princess and Countess don't have targeting powers. King would target one person, so that could be it. Prince could be it . Handmaid couldn't be it - Handmaid only targets one person, sure, but then my Priest power wouldn't have worked. Baron couldn't be it, they target two people. Priest couldn't be it - Priest only targets one person, sure, but both priests are accounted for. Guard could be it. So our options are that Emmy is the King, Prince, or Guard who self-targeted N1 for some reason. My best guess at the time: King and Guard make no sense for anybody to target themselves with under basically any circumstances, but I could see somebody with Prince using the power on themselves to get a different power...especially if they know what powers are available in the unused pile. I take this as further implication that Emmy is on scumteam.

Of course, at this point I can do jack all with that information except push for people to lynch Emmy, since I can't share any of this. I join her wagon and hope for the best.

...the best did not occur.

Oh, Popo voted emmy in the next post, sure, and our endorsement of the wagon in the night and at SoD made it the main wagon pretty early, and Emmy died and flipped scum. But this is the one that made game a nightmare for me:



In my head, there are two possible situations that actually occurred:

1) Popo is telling the full truth, and what happened is that bladescape started as town!king, king'd Popo in the night, and got killed...flipping as priest. Popo freaks out and assumes the mafia kill would've prevented the King power from being used (which isn't how the action resolution rules work).

2) Popo is lying. Popo is scum, and knows scum didn't have King role and doesn't have Priest role, so Popo speaks up and says "whoever stole Priest from me must be scum". This is scum!Popo fishing for the final town!priest to counterclaim, the same way Popo somehow got the countess to counterclaim D1 and somehow didn't get lynched for it.

...I assumed Popo knew how the action resolution stuff worked, because he was such a good player, and that meant he was scum. But I was still convinced Emmy was scum and couldn't fathom why he would bus her. Either I was wrong about Popo, or Popo was one crazy wolf...and Popo seemed pretty crazy.

I keep putting work in for ISOs during D2/N2/D3. I put off the Popo ISO on purpose. I started the ISO on D3 partially hoping one of us would die and resolve it, and partially because I wanted to have a rock-solid case against him, otherwise he'll twist stuff around on me and scum would get town to lynch their last watcher. And I didn't claim, because there were few enough claims and dead bodies and scum players that there's no way they knew where I was. I just kept quiet, kept my suspicions of Popo on the backburner, and kept ISOing everybody, hoping I could figure out enough to pin him.

When I finally ISO Popo, I go in looking for reasons to scumread him. I find townie explanations and scum explanations for just about everything. I stop the ISO on the post I linked above, giving a theoretical explanation for how maybe the remaining Priest isn't scum because I still really don't wanna claim publicly, and then I end the ISO, claiming I got too tired of it to continue. It seems that Popo might've been right about nobody reading my ISOs, though, because nobody asks Popo why he didn't consider that possibility - I know that if I ask him directly, it might effectively be outing myself to scumteam if I harped on that one point, while it's possible that most of town would completely miss the real reason I'm asking the question.

...but I can't bring myself to scumread Popo. I know how to play wolf well enough, and bussing Emmy makes no sense. Regardless of how many scum there are, it makes no sense to intentionally lynch your own inactive player instead of letting them autolynch, even if you get towncred for doing so (and Popo tried to insist that nobody should get towncred for Emmy's flip, since her getting lynched was a foregone conclusion before the night is over).

And then Popo says that mass-claiming might make sense here, and it gives me pause. The princess is dead, the countess is outed, and there's been a whole bunch of claims. Scum knows if there's a lie in the web of claims (even if they're not 100% sure on where the lies are), they know what the unused roles were all game (and Cao confirmed that Prince targets have their old power go to the unused pile again), and scum has had two nights of a couple powers to work with. Scum might be fakeclaiming, but they know what their own roles are. How much could they have put together?

...so I make the chart, and there's not a lot of holes in it. There's almost certainly enough claims even just D2 that scum could put together a mostly complete map of who's who on D2. Book Wombat was killed either because they saw the BW claim (or maybe they just saw me essentially out BW with my vague accusation in the night), or just because scum was firing into the pool of unknowns. Maybe they knew I was priest, maybe they didn't. But why am I not dead? Why isn't Popo dead? I'm about 95% sure Popo is town at this point, so why is scumteam letting us both live?

...so that we tunnel each other. The further Popo and I get in the game together, the more likely it is Popo maths out the claims, figures out who's lying, and realizes I'm the Priest. And if I don't explain myself, Popo will hound me to the ends of the earth and distrust everything I've ever said and get me mislynched. And because of that post up there, they had to know that Popo post would sound to me like scum!Popo trying to bait me into a counterclaim. Scum left two dangerous players alive, because they got lucky: bladescape was the only person who super-distrusted Popo coming out of D1, and so bladescape roleblocked Popo. Scum saw Popo set himself against the remaining priest, knew the priest wasn't among the scum, and decided to leave Popo alive. Maybe they knew I was Priest N1 (lucky guard power?) or maybe they've just gained enough clues to piece it together, or maybe they just saw me soft-claim that BW was handmaid and decided baner takes precedent over me.

But at this point, with everything that's out here right now, I can't not claim. This argument and potential mislynch can't happen on LYLO; if it's going to happen, it needs to happen when we can afford for it to happen.

Will go put together a vote count now.

- - - Updated - - -

Batcathat 4 (AvatarVecna, gac3, Xihirli, Supagoof)
Xihirli 4 (Snowblaze, Batcathat, Rogan, Mr Popo)
Not posted: Libro.

Also, Mr Popo, you need to cross out your BCH vote.

[Rogan]

Quotes, as requested.

Spoiler: To save space

Show

...you're right.

Spoiler: Claims

Show

These are the remaining players and roles. Two of them are scum, but not necessarily lies.

	AvatarVecna	Batcathat	gac3	Libro	Mr Popo	Rogan	Snowblaze	Supagoof	Xihirli	Unused	Unused
Countess	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
King	----	----	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----
Prince	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----
Prince		----	----	----	----		----	----	----
Handmaid		----	----	----	----		----	----	----
Baron	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
Baron	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----
Priest		----	----	----	----		----	----	----
Guard	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
Guard	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----
Guard		----	----	----	----		----	----	----

...you're right. That chart is too full. Scum knows if their own claims are fake, they know which roles have been cycling through the two unused slots, and if townies are fakeclaiming, scum probably has enough info to know there's a lie in the web of claims, and they have enough info to track it down. They either already know or they find out tonight, so no point hiding it. I'm the Priest, and I've never not been the Priest, but I don't have a way to prove that.

I'll write things up from my perspective and y'all can decide if it's worth a thunderdome.

Pre-game, I get the Priest card. I'm not fond of playing watcher, because I tend to die early, and I would've preferred to be Baron and get a few private chat shenanigans going, but whatever, gotta deal with the cards I'm dealt. I'm gone for most of D1 and come in to be a bit solvy while there's still daylight. A player I'm unfamiliar with (Mr Popo) seems to be very good at the game, in a way I'm used to being on the other side of. He's townreading me based on "not flailing when a few people are voting me", so I suspect pocketing a little bit...but because he's so good, I'd have to be stupid not to suspect him at least a little bit regardless of what's going on, so that goes on a backburner.

N1, we get a little ways through and Mr Popo is claiming that he wants to kill an inactive D2, preferably Emmy because "she should've been here". I go look at the activity of the two inactives, and sure enough, rogue_alchemist hadn't bee on the forum in days, while Emmy had been on earlier in the night phase. Up until now, I wasn't really sure who to Priest, and had been waffling between bladescape, Xihirli, and Popo (players I'd be particularly worried about because of my difficulty in reading them). But this gave me something substantial to test:

If Emmy was actually inactive, then Priesting her wouldn't come up with any information. She's probably just having a rough time with life again, so I could try and dissuade the wagon the next day. I expect to die early anyway, and we've got a backup watcher, so I might even survive N2 if I claim D2 to protect Emmy. On the other hand, if she uses a power and doesn't speak up N1 or D2, Popo and I pushing the wagon should be enough to get her lynched because our momentum is too strong for most players. And if the usual nonsense of "why are you lynching an inactive, she hasn't even done anything, stop wasting the lynch on somebody who's gonna end up being town and actually hunt for wolves" comes up, I can respond with "actually, I'm town watcher, and I saw Emmy use her power last night". Plus, I do kinda suspect her of being scum for that weirdness in her activity, so if it turns out she targeted (for example) Xihirli, and then when we kill her she flips Scum!Guard, I know that Xihirli is probably innocent because scumteam was spending a role-scry on her from a player nobody should've known was in the game at that point.



This is the post that killed my plans to claim D2 if it became necessary to get Emmy checked. I'm now the only remaining town watcher in a game that has no seers. There's no way in hell I'm claiming unless my life is on the line or I feel not claiming would be handing scum victory somehow. I will explain why I think not claiming today would've been a mistake.

I saw Emmy target target herself. Princess and Countess don't have targeting powers. King would target one person, so that could be it. Prince could be it . Handmaid couldn't be it - Handmaid only targets one person, sure, but then my Priest power wouldn't have worked. Baron couldn't be it, they target two people. Priest couldn't be it - Priest only targets one person, sure, but both priests are accounted for. Guard could be it. So our options are that Emmy is the King, Prince, or Guard who self-targeted N1 for some reason. My best guess at the time: King and Guard make no sense for anybody to target themselves with under basically any circumstances, but I could see somebody with Prince using the power on themselves to get a different power...especially if they know what powers are available in the unused pile. I take this as further implication that Emmy is on scumteam.

Of course, at this point I can do jack all with that information except push for people to lynch Emmy, since I can't share any of this. I join her wagon and hope for the best.

...the best did not occur.

Oh, Popo voted emmy in the next post, sure, and our endorsement of the wagon in the night and at SoD made it the main wagon pretty early, and Emmy died and flipped scum. But this is the one that made game a nightmare for me:



In my head, there are two possible situations that actually occurred:

1) Popo is telling the full truth, and what happened is that bladescape started as town!king, king'd Popo in the night, and got killed...flipping as priest. Popo freaks out and assumes the mafia kill would've prevented the King power from being used (which isn't how the action resolution rules work).

2) Popo is lying. Popo is scum, and knows scum didn't have King role and doesn't have Priest role, so Popo speaks up and says "whoever stole Priest from me must be scum". This is scum!Popo fishing for the final town!priest to counterclaim, the same way Popo somehow got the countess to counterclaim D1 and somehow didn't get lynched for it.

...I assumed Popo knew how the action resolution stuff worked, because he was such a good player, and that meant he was scum. But I was still convinced Emmy was scum and couldn't fathom why he would bus her. Either I was wrong about Popo, or Popo was one crazy wolf...and Popo seemed pretty crazy.

I keep putting work in for ISOs during D2/N2/D3. I put off the Popo ISO on purpose. I started the ISO on D3 partially hoping one of us would die and resolve it, and partially because I wanted to have a rock-solid case against him, otherwise he'll twist stuff around on me and scum would get town to lynch their last watcher. And I didn't claim, because there were few enough claims and dead bodies and scum players that there's no way they knew where I was. I just kept quiet, kept my suspicions of Popo on the backburner, and kept ISOing everybody, hoping I could figure out enough to pin him.

When I finally ISO Popo, I go in looking for reasons to scumread him. I find townie explanations and scum explanations for just about everything. I stop the ISO on the post I linked above, giving a theoretical explanation for how maybe the remaining Priest isn't scum because I still really don't wanna claim publicly, and then I end the ISO, claiming I got too tired of it to continue. It seems that Popo might've been right about nobody reading my ISOs, though, because nobody asks Popo why he didn't consider that possibility - I know that if I ask him directly, it might effectively be outing myself to scumteam if I harped on that one point, while it's possible that most of town would completely miss the real reason I'm asking the question.

...but I can't bring myself to scumread Popo. I know how to play wolf well enough, and bussing Emmy makes no sense. Regardless of how many scum there are, it makes no sense to intentionally lynch your own inactive player instead of letting them autolynch, even if you get towncred for doing so (and Popo tried to insist that nobody should get towncred for Emmy's flip, since her getting lynched was a foregone conclusion before the night is over).

And then Popo says that mass-claiming might make sense here, and it gives me pause. The princess is dead, the countess is outed, and there's been a whole bunch of claims. Scum knows if there's a lie in the web of claims (even if they're not 100% sure on where the lies are), they know what the unused roles were all game (and Cao confirmed that Prince targets have their old power go to the unused pile again), and scum has had two nights of a couple powers to work with. Scum might be fakeclaiming, but they know what their own roles are. How much could they have put together?

...so I make the chart, and there's not a lot of holes in it. There's almost certainly enough claims even just D2 that scum could put together a mostly complete map of who's who on D2. Book Wombat was killed either because they saw the BW claim (or maybe they just saw me essentially out BW with my vague accusation in the night), or just because scum was firing into the pool of unknowns. Maybe they knew I was priest, maybe they didn't. But why am I not dead? Why isn't Popo dead? I'm about 95% sure Popo is town at this point, so why is scumteam letting us both live?

...so that we tunnel each other. The further Popo and I get in the game together, the more likely it is Popo maths out the claims, figures out who's lying, and realizes I'm the Priest. And if I don't explain myself, Popo will hound me to the ends of the earth and distrust everything I've ever said and get me mislynched. And because of that post up there, they had to know that Popo post would sound to me like scum!Popo trying to bait me into a counterclaim. Scum left two dangerous players alive, because they got lucky: bladescape was the only person who super-distrusted Popo coming out of D1, and so bladescape roleblocked Popo. Scum saw Popo set himself against the remaining priest, knew the priest wasn't among the scum, and decided to leave Popo alive. Maybe they knew I was Priest N1 (lucky guard power?) or maybe they've just gained enough clues to piece it together, or maybe they just saw me soft-claim that BW was handmaid and decided baner takes precedent over me.

But at this point, with everything that's out here right now, I can't not claim. This argument and potential mislynch can't happen on LYLO; if it's going to happen, it needs to happen when we can afford for it to happen.

[Batcathat]

For the first time since AV's initial case against me, I have some hope to actually survive the day. Which is nice, even if I suspect I'll probably get lynched D4 instead, whether or not Xi flips wolf.

If she does flip wolf, at least I can trust Snow again. Not even my paranoid mind can think of an explanation for why she would create a very strong case against a fellow wolf out of nowhere and for seemingly no reason (if that's the case, I've gone from town reading Snow when she was a serial killer to wolf reading her when she's town. That's some questionable progress but I can live with that).

My suspicions against Goof are pretty much unchanged, regardless of Xi and Snow. He probably is a wolf and the only reason I can see myself not voting for him D4 (assuming Xi's lynched and flips wolf) is some sign that there's another wolf and who that is. Unless Goof's a lot more active behind the scenes than he is in the thread, he's probably not the most dangerous wolf (assuming he's not the last wolf and most dangerous by default, of course).

I'll still try to look over my ISOs before end of day, in case I get lynched, but with both Goof and Xi posting fairly little I doubt there's much I can find.

[Mr Popo]

Spoiler

Show

Pre-game, I get the Priest card. I'm not fond of playing watcher, because I tend to die early, and I would've preferred to be Baron and get a few private chat shenanigans going, but whatever, gotta deal with the cards I'm dealt. I'm gone for most of D1 and come in to be a bit solvy while there's still daylight. A player I'm unfamiliar with (Mr Popo) seems to be very good at the game, in a way I'm used to being on the other side of. He's townreading me based on "not flailing when a few people are voting me", so I suspect pocketing a little bit...but because he's so good, I'd have to be stupid not to suspect him at least a little bit regardless of what's going on, so that goes on a backburner.

N1, we get a little ways through and Mr Popo is claiming that he wants to kill an inactive D2, preferably Emmy because "she should've been here". I go look at the activity of the two inactives, and sure enough, rogue_alchemist hadn't bee on the forum in days, while Emmy had been on earlier in the night phase. Up until now, I wasn't really sure who to Priest, and had been waffling between bladescape, Xihirli, and Popo (players I'd be particularly worried about because of my difficulty in reading them). But this gave me something substantial to test:

If Emmy was actually inactive, then Priesting her wouldn't come up with any information. She's probably just having a rough time with life again, so I could try and dissuade the wagon the next day. I expect to die early anyway, and we've got a backup watcher, so I might even survive N2 if I claim D2 to protect Emmy. On the other hand, if she uses a power and doesn't speak up N1 or D2, Popo and I pushing the wagon should be enough to get her lynched because our momentum is too strong for most players. And if the usual nonsense of "why are you lynching an inactive, she hasn't even done anything, stop wasting the lynch on somebody who's gonna end up being town and actually hunt for wolves" comes up, I can respond with "actually, I'm town watcher, and I saw Emmy use her power last night". Plus, I do kinda suspect her of being scum for that weirdness in her activity, so if it turns out she targeted (for example) Xihirli, and then when we kill her she flips Scum!Guard, I know that Xihirli is probably innocent because scumteam was spending a role-scry on her from a player nobody should've known was in the game at that point.



This is the post that killed my plans to claim D2 if it became necessary to get Emmy checked. I'm now the only remaining town watcher in a game that has no seers. There's no way in hell I'm claiming unless my life is on the line or I feel not claiming would be handing scum victory somehow. I will explain why I think not claiming today would've been a mistake.

I saw Emmy target target herself. Princess and Countess don't have targeting powers. King would target one person, so that could be it. Prince could be it . Handmaid couldn't be it - Handmaid only targets one person, sure, but then my Priest power wouldn't have worked. Baron couldn't be it, they target two people. Priest couldn't be it - Priest only targets one person, sure, but both priests are accounted for. Guard could be it. So our options are that Emmy is the King, Prince, or Guard who self-targeted N1 for some reason. My best guess at the time: King and Guard make no sense for anybody to target themselves with under basically any circumstances, but I could see somebody with Prince using the power on themselves to get a different power...especially if they know what powers are available in the unused pile. I take this as further implication that Emmy is on scumteam.

Of course, at this point I can do jack all with that information except push for people to lynch Emmy, since I can't share any of this. I join her wagon and hope for the best.

...the best did not occur.

Oh, Popo voted emmy in the next post, sure, and our endorsement of the wagon in the night and at SoD made it the main wagon pretty early, and Emmy died and flipped scum. But this is the one that made game a nightmare for me:



In my head, there are two possible situations that actually occurred:

1) Popo is telling the full truth, and what happened is that bladescape started as town!king, king'd Popo in the night, and got killed...flipping as priest. Popo freaks out and assumes the mafia kill would've prevented the King power from being used (which isn't how the action resolution rules work).

2) Popo is lying. Popo is scum, and knows scum didn't have King role and doesn't have Priest role, so Popo speaks up and says "whoever stole Priest from me must be scum". This is scum!Popo fishing for the final town!priest to counterclaim, the same way Popo somehow got the countess to counterclaim D1 and somehow didn't get lynched for it.

...I assumed Popo knew how the action resolution stuff worked, because he was such a good player, and that meant he was scum. But I was still convinced Emmy was scum and couldn't fathom why he would bus her. Either I was wrong about Popo, or Popo was one crazy wolf...and Popo seemed pretty crazy.

I keep putting work in for ISOs during D2/N2/D3. I put off the Popo ISO on purpose. I started the ISO on D3 partially hoping one of us would die and resolve it, and partially because I wanted to have a rock-solid case against him, otherwise he'll twist stuff around on me and scum would get town to lynch their last watcher. And I didn't claim, because there were few enough claims and dead bodies and scum players that there's no way they knew where I was. I just kept quiet, kept my suspicions of Popo on the backburner, and kept ISOing everybody, hoping I could figure out enough to pin him.

When I finally ISO Popo, I go in looking for reasons to scumread him. I find townie explanations and scum explanations for just about everything. I stop the ISO on the post I linked above, giving a theoretical explanation for how maybe the remaining Priest isn't scum because I still really don't wanna claim publicly, and then I end the ISO, claiming I got too tired of it to continue. It seems that Popo might've been right about nobody reading my ISOs, though, because nobody asks Popo why he didn't consider that possibility - I know that if I ask him directly, it might effectively be outing myself to scumteam if I harped on that one point, while it's possible that most of town would completely miss the real reason I'm asking the question.

...but I can't bring myself to scumread Popo. I know how to play wolf well enough, and bussing Emmy makes no sense. Regardless of how many scum there are, it makes no sense to intentionally lynch your own inactive player instead of letting them autolynch, even if you get towncred for doing so (and Popo tried to insist that nobody should get towncred for Emmy's flip, since her getting lynched was a foregone conclusion before the night is over).

And then Popo says that mass-claiming might make sense here, and it gives me pause. The princess is dead, the countess is outed, and there's been a whole bunch of claims. Scum knows if there's a lie in the web of claims (even if they're not 100% sure on where the lies are), they know what the unused roles were all game (and Cao confirmed that Prince targets have their old power go to the unused pile again), and scum has had two nights of a couple powers to work with. Scum might be fakeclaiming, but they know what their own roles are. How much could they have put together?

...so I make the chart, and there's not a lot of holes in it. There's almost certainly enough claims even just D2 that scum could put together a mostly complete map of who's who on D2. Book Wombat was killed either because they saw the BW claim (or maybe they just saw me essentially out BW with my vague accusation in the night), or just because scum was firing into the pool of unknowns. Maybe they knew I was priest, maybe they didn't. But why am I not dead? Why isn't Popo dead? I'm about 95% sure Popo is town at this point, so why is scumteam letting us both live?

...so that we tunnel each other. The further Popo and I get in the game together, the more likely it is Popo maths out the claims, figures out who's lying, and realizes I'm the Priest. And if I don't explain myself, Popo will hound me to the ends of the earth and distrust everything I've ever said and get me mislynched. And because of that post up there, they had to know that Popo post would sound to me like scum!Popo trying to bait me into a counterclaim. Scum left two dangerous players alive, because they got lucky: bladescape was the only person who super-distrusted Popo coming out of D1, and so bladescape roleblocked Popo. Scum saw Popo set himself against the remaining priest, knew the priest wasn't among the scum, and decided to leave Popo alive. Maybe they knew I was Priest N1 (lucky guard power?) or maybe they've just gained enough clues to piece it together, or maybe they just saw me soft-claim that BW was handmaid and decided baner takes precedent over me.

But at this point, with everything that's out here right now, I can't not claim. This argument and potential mislynch can't happen on LYLO; if it's going to happen, it needs to happen when we can afford for it to happen.

Holy bananas.

I never saw any of this.

I wish I had more than 15 minutes to process this out, but AvatarVecna is ridiculously villagery by cold read.

Like, sickeningly villagery by cold read.

I never ever hit there unless it is basically a stone cold lock to be a wolf by mechanics, and this is not that.

However, Gac3 absolutely targeted me and Gac, and made a chat between us.

So whatever said that or whoever said that is incorrect, because otherwise, gac3 and I would not be able to claim having a chat together.

This is a claim that "makes no sense" that should almost always be a villager, not a wolf. This is like the 1 in 20 example of a claim that doesn't add up on the surface which a wolf is dumb to claim and AV isn't dumb.

And because it is absolutely the truth when AV is town, AV is able to look for ways it can have happened.

And found one that I cannot disprove.

So when I weigh that against his iso which is cold read super town, I can't ever endorse hitting there.

Not unless the only possibility is that he is lying, which we would find out when our other suspects are all town or only contain 1 wolf, and we get closer to endgame.

Goof, Xi, and Bat, the current suspects, and not in that order.

I basically refuse to kill Vecna this game.

And this explains why he put infinity hours into doing an iso on me that no one read. I thought it was just villagery for thoroughness due to respect and fear of a player, but if there was legitimate reasons to scum read me along the way, WOW.

That's never not a villager. It has to be a villager. That explains why the attempted forced scum read of me, which I thought was just a hypothetical solving process, as so dogged.

Somehow, AV literally did think I was a probable wolf that entire time.

Holy jebus. That's amazing and I am truly fortunate to have joined this game to play with Vecna.

You were absolutely not this strong when we played together way back in the day when I was under Askthepizzaguy main account.

True, I think we only played a couple games together. And one of them, you straight up left the game because others were making you angry.

You have gotten so strong since then.

All the blue stuff in that quote is amazeballs and I cant believe ever comes from a wolf. I have to be forced to scum read that as the last remaining possible option for me to ever hit that.

7 minutes before I go.

Let me just say, I continue to be pleasantly surprised and impressed by the players here.

I would have been straight up sad if it was gac3 and Jeen and wombat, wolfy mechanics focus, bad suspects, and almost no solving.

If that had been the wolf team, I wouldn't have felt like there was a challenge to the game.

Instead, there is not only a serious challenge but the solve is a bit beyond me mechanically and at least 2 wolves straight up punked me good.

That makes me a happy pizzaguy.

- - - Updated - - -

Quotes, as requested.

Superb, but I still did not see where anyone said AV claimed that Gac3 targeted gac and AV, rather than gac and myself.

To put it in meme format:

I am the one who gacs!

Crossing out my other vote. Xi vote stays, Batcat is recommended counterwagon, Goof as the tertiary counterwagon in the event you determine one of the other two is lock town in my absence.

3 minutes.

[Rogan]

Spoiler: AV Priest quote

Show

Snow can quote :smalgrin:

Will go put together a vote count now.

- - - Updated - - -

Batcathat 4 (AvatarVecna, gac3, Xihirli, Supagoof)
Xihirli 4 (Snowblaze, Batcathat, Rogan, Mr Popo)
Not posted: Libro.

Also, Mr Popo, you need to cross out your BCH vote.

Assuming no lies regarding role, this would mean BCH will die. Libro if you think BCH should die, you might want to consider not voting. A tie will give us slightly more info.

[Mr Popo]

Batcathat dies today always

Last edited by Mr Popo; Today at 04:59 PM. Reason: crossing out vote, because Xi before also guilty BatCatHat



And now, I take my leave.

It's been a remarkable experience so far, and we should be able to discuss and puzzle it out in Night even if this somehow misses.

If you think it is a miss, it's simple:

Spoiler: If Xihirli should be town? Then......

Show

- - - Updated - - -

Good night, and keep maintaining that tally, keep looking for reasons either can be town, continue solving.

This is why, because when your suspects keep looking townie, you havent solved anything yet. Solve until the last wolf flipped wolf and the game ends.

Solve for townies on every single suspect forever until the last second of every round, if they are town, they need the time to convince you of that, or an alternative correct solve.

[Rogan]

Speaking of "useful information", I said I had no way to prove that I'm Priest at all, let alone prove that I was priest N1. Well on N2, I targeted gac3, and gac3 targeted gac3 and AvatarVecna...which I would've learned regardless of being Priest because I'm the one the QT was made with and gac3 was later outed as Baron.

Here is the quote about gac and his actions.

[Supagoof]

Hmmm...trying to make the game more fun and sparkly. Oh - back to roleplay.

Fun
Sir Goof spotted through the castle window the princess. She was watching and smiling, but then her face went blank and she fell. She disappeared from view, and this worried Sir Goof, as his only point with jousting was to gain her favor. His confidence dropped as doubt crept into his mind.

From the tower window, the town crier shouted the news. The princess had fainted from a mild poison.

The roar of the crowd went silent. Sir Goof refocused his attention again. His target was still ahead of him, still flying that banner of red and black. Now an evil smirk across his face. Who would be happy about such news. The brought the rage in Sir Goof's heart. He forcibly dropped his helmet. Grabbed and steadied his lance. The flag hadn't yet dropped, but Sir Goof dug his heels into the mare just the same. And was off.


Sparkly

Spoiler: Song!Wake me up - Artist!Wham

Show

Jitterbug
Jitterbug
Jitterbug

[Verse 1]
You gathered suspects right from the start
Your confidence and posts showed you are smart
"Is he lying" got into my brain (Yeah, yeah)
Goes a bang-bang-bang 'til my feet do the same

[Pre-Chorus]
But then you shaded me
Something ain't right
My suspicions rose after that first night
Left me guessing' in my head
I thought you wolfin' but I should've trusted you instead

[Chorus]
Another post, please Mr Popo
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
Another post, please Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunting tonight
I wanna get it riiiiiight
Yeah, yeah

[Verse 2]
You take the instincts out of the way
You made the accusations both night an day
Made a network into this game (Yeah, yeah)
Though I wasn't in it, didn't feel the same
'Cause you're a Genie, I'm no fool
It drove me crazy when you acted so cruel
Come on, Popo, let's not fight
We'll go hunting, everything will be alright

[Chorus]
Another post, please Mr Popo
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
Another post, please Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunt scum tonight
I wanna get it riiiiiight
Yeah, yeah

[Post-Chorus]
Jitterbug
Jitterbug


[Bridge]
Buckle up, maybe you got it right
Town be dancing tomorrow night
It's cold outside, but it's warm in here
We can dance, and will without any fear
Jitterbug

[Chorus]
Another post, please Mr Popo
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
Another post, please Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunt scum tonight
Another post, dear Mr Popo
(Don't you dare, to leave me hanging on like a yo-yo-yo-yo-yo)
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
(Let's go hunt scum)
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
(A boom-boom-boom-boom, oh)
Another post, dear Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
(A boom-boom-boom-boom, yeah, yeah, yeah!)
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunt scum tonight
Yeah, yeah

[AvatarVecna]

You were absolutely not this strong when we played together way back in the day when I was under Askthepizzaguy main account.

Oh. OH. I have played with you before! I think in one of those games you randed wolf and convinced town to give up the D1 lynch? And I think that was the same game where scumteam refused to target based on mech, and instead targeted people by alphabetical order of the second letter in each username?

True, I think we only played a couple games together. And one of them, you straight up left the game because others were making you angry.

*winces*

Still kinda a bad habit at times. I got real angry a few games back in deadchat, and once this game is over I get to find out if that drove a new player away from our little community. I also kinda did this in tourney. Working to get better about it but still. >.<

There's something good to come out of my old habit of voting myself tho: I'm basically never afraid to make the sacrifice play, and on occasion it's actually useful.

Superb, but I still did not see where anyone said AV claimed that Gac3 targeted gac and AV, rather than gac and myself.

I will clarify: I claimed that gac targeted gac and AV on Night 2, which happened. Of course, for some reason, I thought you had outed gac earlier as a baron, so I thought this wasn't entirely new info for town as a whole. It seems to be working out so far, but I'm still kinda sheepish about outing gac by accident. >.>

We're reaching a point where scumteam should almost have town's number, so you were right: the best move is full transparency, and now it looks like we've got two liars to lynch.

- - - Updated - - -

Altho FWIW I still think we should lynch BCH first. Xihirli lying is weird but has potential non-scum explanations (including "she's Xihirli"). BCH is still claiming that the baner didn't bane the outed Countess, even though most reasonable alteratives are disproven by mech. The plan where Libro refuses to vote to see which of the guard claimants is lying is irrelevant, because Xihirli has changed her claim to baron with a brainfart explanation. The number of claims should now be accurate, we just need to dig into the possible reasons Xihirli might've lied in the first place and then lied about forgetting, as opposed to the possibility that Xihirli just forgot.

[Supagoof]

Goof, why did you pick gac and Baron? What made you pick this combination?
What did you hope to learn night 1?

I picked Gac as Baron to give a solid read to the priest with solid information to be verified in game. I hadn't seen anyone state what role Gac was.

I also thought that other actions N2 may interfere with other people I would have targeted. Like, picking someone who would have been handmaidened (Libro, AV, Popo), or picking someone who'd have been switching roles (Pretty sure Popo would get rid of his Kingship asap.) - so why bother with those of higher profile.

Night one, I missed - I hadn't put much thought into who would have been what role. When I returned on day 2, I just a list of suspects in my head from the time on day 1 that I did read at that point, that I wanted to know more about. Gac3 for pointing at me D1, Snow just because she's usually a power player, you because curious and hadn't played with you. So when I said you on my list when I returned on day 2, it was just because of curiosity. I had not at that point seen the wonders that Mr Popo had posted or had other hairs on the back of my head raised yet.

[Batcathat]

Altho FWIW I still think we should lynch BCH first. Xihirli lying is weird but has potential non-scum explanations (including "she's Xihirli"). BCH is still claiming that the baner didn't bane the outed Countess, even though most reasonable alteratives are disproven by mech. The plan where Libro refuses to vote to see which of the guard claimants is lying is irrelevant, because Xihirli has changed her claim to baron with a brainfart explanation. The number of claims should now be accurate, we just need to dig into the possible reasons Xihirli might've lied in the first place and then lied about forgetting, as opposed to the possibility that Xihirli just forgot.

I might be biased but if I had to pick between someone who definitelylied (possibly unintentionally, possibly for some very unclear but good and/or funny reason, but definitely lied) or someone who might be entirely truthful as long as someone else used a less than optimal strategy I know who I'd pick...