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Thread: Smugglers & Scallywags
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2021-01-19, 02:31 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
- Gender
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Personally, in the absence of strong suspicions, I think we should take out the quieter ones. Even if they're Town, in the future is going to be hard to notice changes of behaviour from their very few interventions and thus tell if they've been converted or not, and this makes them a liability.
Book Wombat said they "might post something" today, so I'll start with Libro.
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2021-01-19, 09:26 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
There's 11 players, right?
Assuming 1 cultist to start and that conversions were successful each night:
D1: 1 cult, 10 town --> 1 cult, 9 Town (killed PoR, villager)
N1: 1 cult, 9 Town --> 2 cult, 8 cult
D2: 2 cult, 8 Town --> 1 cult, 8 Town (killed Xi, cultist)
N2: 1 cult, 8 Town --> 2 cult, 7 Town
I'm leaning that Xi is the original cultist. We don't have much clue who she would have recruited, except it probably wasn't one of the quieter players (Libro, Book Wombat). If we go with an idea that powered characters can't be recruited, that also rules out me, my buddy, and maybe Book Wombat and The Outsider. I'm leaning towards that interpretation, based on the fact that otherwise Town is pretty screwed: we need a potential towncore that can't be converted. Maybe the cult even knows who the powered ones are, but let's hope not.
This also assumes both me and my buddy are true seers, so that clears Elenna and Caerulea for now.
I hope to go through the list of players and try to figure out who would make a good N1 conversion and a good N2 conversion.
Note: if this theory is right, there's no harm to us powered Town claiming. But I have no evidence it's right beyond it's a possible escape from what looks like an unwinnable game at first glance.
That's true. It's not evidence against them being Town, but neither is it evidence they are Town. I meant that it could be a Town honestly hinting at powers, or a wolf trying to look like a powered Town to buy time.
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2021-01-19, 09:27 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
This plan is interesting, as long as town is in agreement on who to lynch it would be interesting to see. But if no one came up guilty I'm not sure that'll happen. Would you or your buddy consider investigating AV if we don't get to test it today?
Normally I'd agree but we're also playing a Cult game. I'm not sure the quieter players are ones who I would put high on my list of conversion targets. If Libro started the game as Cult, then yes but I would imagine cult would want more talkative players to guide the discussion.
Other thoughts:
In the vote yesterday, Caerulea and Libro were the only ones who didn't vote Xi. Libro didn't post since Jeen's claim and Caerulea's vote didn't seem particularly cult-ish (plus, the seers say she came up innocent). So I don't know that we can really learn much from the vote yesterday.
Possible Townie points to Valmark though, seeing as he voted Xi before any of this came out.
I have to think before I put down a vote. If we trust Jeen and his read last night, I won't be voting him or Elenna. If we trust the second seer (which I'm not as sure of) I won't vote Caerulea. That leaves 5 people as possible cultists (technically 6, but I'm also not voting myself).
Vote Count:
Avatar Vecna (1): The Outsider
The Outsider (1): JeenLeen
Libro (1): Captain Cap
Not Voting (6): Caerulea, Valmark, Elenna, Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape, Libro
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2021-01-19, 09:28 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
But I'm willing to assume The Outsider is Town. He was cleared by N1 scry, he looks townish, and there's multiple reasons to think the cult didn't convert him N2.
I'll move my vote later, after I have more time to think about a better target.
- - - Updated - - -
EDIT/add-on: I meant for the above to be added to my last post. Got ninja'd by Cao.
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2021-01-19, 09:45 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
No matter what, I'm really drawing a blank on who to lynch. I'm somewhat suspicious of CC because of him defending Xi and viceversa though, and I have no better ideas sooooo I guess Captain Cap it is.
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2021-01-19, 09:59 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
- Gender
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I profoundly disagree: it's true that Town needs villagers immune to conversion (or at least reliable ways to stop it) to have any hope of winning, and while it's reasonable to assume that there are some powers around that specifically grant an immunity, that ANY power could grant it (without being explicitly stated so) is not only a stretch, but a dangerous line of thought that could make us blind toward various possibilities.
Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-01-19 at 10:27 AM. Reason: quote correction
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2021-01-19, 10:09 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
That's very true. It is a dangerous assumption, but I can't believe that anyone would be told they were immune to conversion, since the game being a cult game was a secret. So I don't think those immune would know they are immune.
I fully admit I'm also making the dangerous assumption of trusting my mason-buddy. I feel like it's time for us to be bold enough to say who we are, but I want his agreement first. Likewise, I think The Outsider and Book Wombat should claim, but that could be unwise; e.g., not asking them to now, just stating I have a gut feeling it's a good idea.
I'm willing to voteCaptain Cap. He'd have been a good candidate for conversion, hasn't been checked by seers, and it might yield insight into Valmark's alignment.Last edited by JeenLeen; 2021-01-19 at 01:22 PM.
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2021-01-19, 10:15 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Spoiler: Analyzing Seer results
PoR removed as he is confirmed town. Xi removed from N2 convert for being dead.
Spoiler: Original CultistBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 1 ConvertBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 2 ConvertBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Now, remove Jeen from Original and N1 (for getting Xi). Going to trust Jeen N2 and his Elenna read as well, assuming Jeen was protected in some way N2.
Spoiler: Original CultistBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 1 ConvertBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 2 ConvertBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Now we have to go more out on a limb. If we trust the second seer's results, that means Outsider was good through Night 1 and Caerulea is good through now. If we're trusting all this info, we would be trusting the second seer too, but we don't know who that is.
Spoiler: Original CultistBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 1 ConvertBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 2 ConvertBook Wombat
Caerulea
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Elenna
JeenLeen
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
So, based on the Seer results, this is who I see as possible cultists. (thought process above)
Spoiler: Original CultistBook Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Libro
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 1 ConvertBook Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Libro
Valmark
Xihirli
Spoiler: Night 2 ConvertBook Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
Libro
The Outsider
Valmark
Really, the only difference with N2 is bringing back the original round of investigations. And one of those was dead anyway. Xi is confirmed to be the original or the N1 convert.
So, possible votes are Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape, Captain Cap, Libro, or Valmark. Not gonna vote myself. Book Wombat and Libro are possible original cultists, but they were quiet on Day 1, so I'm not sure if either would be picked Night 1.
That leaves my options as Captain Cap or Valmark. Val makes a good point that Captain Cap seemed to defend Xi on Day 2, before Jeen's claim. Val voted Xi before the claim also. Possibly distancing but based on Val's other posts I don't see Val voting a fellow cultist unless it was necessary.
So, Captain Cap seems like a good place to put my vote.
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2021-01-19, 10:15 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
- Gender
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2021-01-19, 10:21 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Just want to point out that your quote is from Jeen Leen, not me. Was super confused since I didn't say anything like that.
- - - Updated - - -
Vote Count:
Avatar Vecna (1): The Outsider
Libro (1): Captain Cap
Captain Cap (3): Valmark, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape
Not Voting (4): Caerulea, Elenna, Book Wombat, Libro
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2021-01-19, 10:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-01-19 at 10:28 AM.
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2021-01-19, 01:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I know this game has less players than most have lately, but it's also been quieter than most games even with low players, rights?
Libro, Book Wombat, got anything to add?
still suspicious of Captain Cap, but I want some talking
I'll reiterate that AV refused to confirm whether it takes place before or after conversion. So we really don't know. But I'd prefer to assume it hits a convert on the name of conversion, since, well, otherwise we're a lot closer to screwed.Last edited by JeenLeen; 2021-01-20 at 09:01 AM.
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2021-01-19, 01:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
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2021-01-19, 03:07 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-01-19 at 03:13 PM.
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2021-01-19, 03:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I got no feedback about if I was baned or not, but those baned normally don't.
Book Wombat, what did your power description in the QuickTopic say? I'm wondering if the exact wording help us ferret out anything particular about the cult.
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2021-01-19, 03:36 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
This is the gist of it.
"You are a townie, the baner. Every night, select one player: that player is baned that night (immune to all other powers)."Every day...
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2021-01-19, 03:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
That is in line with a baner preventing conversion, while not revealing that it's a cult game. (Good choice of wording, AV.)
Also glad we didn't scry you last night.
You don't happen to be masons with The Outsider, do you? A pair of baner masons and a pair of seer masons could be a good counter to a cult.
I guess I don't have more to say until the other players talk some. Libro? Caerulea?
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2021-01-19, 03:49 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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2021-01-19, 03:52 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I still think it's a mixed bag. Book Wombat basically said they have a power during the Night. And he can still bane someone (himself or me, or another if a good reason) tonight, and the cult won't know who is baned. Even if the cult can convert powered town, they have at least a 50% chance of choosing someone baned.
If Book Wombat was converted N2, I reckon it might say he did something else, so that heat might get put on me today as a possible cultist. So I'm pretty sure he's currently Town.
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2021-01-19, 03:59 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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2021-01-19, 09:52 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
So, if scries don't get the new convert that night, we know Xihirli was the/an original Cult member. My list of Day 2 suspects becomes the Day 1 suspects. So it doesn't change much.
I'm willing to believe this. But maybe we cool it on telling the Cult info for now?
I don't have much more to say. I like a Captain Cap lynch better than a Libro lynch, and I don't think we have a clear enough target that we can afford to vote AV.
Caerulea and Libro haven't posted at all today, but I'd at least like to see a vote from the other two. Libro just doesn't make sense as a convert to me, so he would have to have been the original.
I suppose Libro isn't a terrible lynch but I'd rather not.
Vote Count:
Libro (3): Captain Cap, JeenLeen, The Outsider
Captain Cap (2): Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape
Not Voting (4): Caerulea, Elenna, Book Wombat, Libro
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2021-01-19, 10:10 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Yeah, that's fair. The baner does make it less likely that powered Roles are immune to conversion, so it's more dangerous to claim.
So, I guess any other powered: unless you have info that will swing the vote today, or are the person up for lynch, no reason to claim.
Book Wombat, don't say who you plan to bane; we should make tonight's conversion choice difficult for the wolves.
To those who haven't posted/voted: if you don't have strong feelings towards Captain Cap or Libro, please vote for AV or some pirate-joke-name (Davy Jones, Jack Sparrow, etc.) so we maximize info gained at Day's end.
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2021-01-19, 11:06 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
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2021-01-20, 12:52 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
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- Aiur, low orbit
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Not enough other people RP’ing that I’m going to continue with it.
First time playing a cult game so I’ve been floundering about what I can do/say. Toss in start-of-the-semester fun and this game is *interesting*.
For now I’m going to go down the player list and state reads:
Book Wombat-Baner, town
Caerulea-Maybe town based on scry result; uncertainty due to possibility of fool scry.
CaoimhinTheCape-Town in my book. Could be a helluva charade but I don’t picture a cultist acting as they do.
Captain Cap-Obviously I’d rather not be on the chopping block, but I’m going with a gut feeling for my vote here. Something feels fishy.
Elenna-Probably town based on scry result and Jeen seeming to be a seer rather than fool.
JeenLeen-Seer (or fool), also mason. Partner unknown.
Libro-I’m a townie. I ain’t vanilla but that’s all you get for day 3
PartyOfRouges-villager
The Outsider-I think town. Not very familiar with their playstyle as of yet, but going for quiet players is typically a town POV.
Valmark-Posts are middle-of-the-road atm; neither filler nor driving the conversation. Null read but watching closely.
Xihirli-Cultist
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2021-01-20, 02:39 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Well, people, it would have been better if the Cult didn't know about my power yet, but I guess you leave me no choice but to claim.
This is the message from AvatarVecna:
You are a townie, the Wild Card. You are immune to all powers. Additionally, the schemes you're constantly weaving through make it particularly difficult for the dishonorable pirates to predict: if you are targeted by the scum faction power, not only does it fail that night, but it's unavailable the next night as well, and they are not informed of that.
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2021-01-20, 03:55 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
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- Ithilien
- Gender
Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I don't think voting Outsider would give us much information on JL's buddy.
- If Outsider flips wolf, at least we get a wolf, and we know not to trust JL's buddy's scries, but we don't know if they're a fool or a lying cultist, and we don't know if they're always wrong.
- If Outsider flips town, we've lynched a townie and we know absolutely nothing. We still wouldn't be able to trust the other seer's scries, because fools can be right and even cultists can choose to tell the truth sometimes to seem more trustworthy.
So at best, Outsider's lynch gives us the information "don't trust those scries", but it's nearly the same as if we don't lynch Outsider and just keep on not trusting the other mason's scries regardless.
Of course if people think Outsider has a higher-than-average chance of being a wolf independently of the seer results, then lynching them could be a good idea just to kill a wolf, the same reason we would lynch anybody else. This is why I end up voting Outsider below. But I don't think it's a good information lynch.
(Note: I know I said D2 that Outsider would be a good lynch for information. That was when I was looking at connections between players on D1. Given that there was probably only one cultist D1, there doesn't seem to be much use anymore in looking for connections there.)
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I think it's somewhat more likely that scries happen after conversions, just because it seems like if scries can't even be assumed to be true the next day, it severely decreases the value of seers. Although maybe that's why we have two seers? IDK, I think it's unlikely that someone scried as town can be converted the same night, but I do want to keep the possibility in mind for the future.
That being said, JeenLeen's scry on me ought to be trusted implicitly.
I'm inclined to believe BW is telling the truth - there wasn't any particular pressure for them to claim, and I don't think a cultist would fake-claim a role like baner that's very likely to be counterclaimed. In that case, JeenLeen is still currently trustworthy.
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Okay, so assuming we don't vote BW (for being baner), JL (for being seer), or Caerulea and I (for being scried as town), here are the possible targets for today:
- CaoimhinTheCape
- Captain Cap
- Libro
- The Outsider
- Valmark
I think Libro's an unlikely conversion target given his activity level. Could be WIFOM, or he could be the original cultist, but I don't think it's a good idea to vote him right now. Especially since he's talked now, so a poke vote isn't really applicable.
Valmark gets townie points for voting Xi D2 before JeenLeen's claim. Not voting him today either.
Between CaoimhinTheCape and The Outsider, I don't really see much reason to be suspicious of either, but if forced to pick one of them to lynch I'd pick Outsider because Cape has longer and more helpful posts. Based on a quick ctrl+F, I don't think either of them has interacted with Xihirli at all (besides voting her after JL's claim, which is NAI).
Xi voted Captain Cap D1, and then briefly voted them again D2, but then CC defended Xi and Xi switched off and said CC got town points. I could definitely see this as the interaction of two people who just because buddies, and I'd definitely be down for the Captain Cap lynch if it weren't for his claim.
On one hand, if Cap's claim is true, then that would be a valuable power to keep alive in a cult game, although less so now that cult knows not to target him. On the other hand, it's a good fake-claim for a cultist to make - unlikely to be counterclaimed, impossible to prove, and makes it really obvious why he shouldn't be lynched.
Thinking I'll vote forThe Outsiderfor now, but I'd still be fine with a Captain Cap lynch tbh.Last edited by Elenna; 2021-01-20 at 09:57 AM.
I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2021-01-20, 06:47 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
I really can't bring myself to trust CC's QT message. It seems like it checks out- but when compared to the Cultists' QT message the wording is off (he has half power up front, text, other half-power while cultists have first the text, then the mechanics talk) and we can't even scry him in the first place.
It would make sense to have the best weapon against the Cultists be someone that Town cannot confirm, but there again he's also now functionally a vanillager (I strongly doubt the Cultists would target him now) so he went from being a great asset to being a better mislynch then anybody else... Aside from the fact that any mislynch is doubly bad for Town, this being a Cult game, so one can't really be at ease when lynching a less useful power role then a more useful one if they are still Town.
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2021-01-20, 07:12 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Are you saying that a villager that can't be converted whatsoever, and thus a permanent +1 to town ranks (lynching aside), is an asset not more useful than a vanillager? I can get why you're suspicious of my claim, but saying that my role is useless now doesn't seem a particularly objective judgment.
Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-01-20 at 07:14 AM.
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2021-01-20, 07:53 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-01-20 at 07:57 AM.
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2021-01-20, 08:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Smugglers & Scallywags
The fact that the Cultists know this means that they will just target someone else- in practice it's not actually different from a Townie that doesn't get targeted at all through the game (which can and has happened).
Not only that but it's tecnically not a permanent +1 to town ranks- because we don't know if we can trust you and we can't prove that.
Even if you are an uncovertible Town member you're the only one who knows that- this makes it less useful then if we all could rally around a publicly confirmed one.
I mean, it's not like I know it's wrong. I just don't trust it.