Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

[Xihirli]

But... most people are not wolves. Voting at random will most likely help the wolves. Especially since they know who they are and can make even more sure that it's not a wolf who gets voted in. But not voting give us one more night to gather some sort of information to make a decent decision.

That is exactly what we want them to do. Move their votes to keep their wolf friends out of the fire. Because that's when we spot them, and that's when we kill them.

[Kinro]

So, you're saying that if Valmark gets killed and was not a wolf, one one the people who voted for him is definitely a wolf? Because if that's not true, if it's perfectly reasonable for 4 non-wolves to just kill someone at random, it sounds a lot like we're putting ourselves one step closer to failure in exchange for no new information.

[Xihirli]

Not definitely. If it were that easy we wouldn't bother playing.

[Apogee1]

But... most people are not wolves. Voting at random will most likely help the wolves. Especially since they know who they are and can make even more sure that it's not a wolf who gets voted in. But not voting give us one more night to gather some sort of information to make a decent decision.

There's a bunch of math I could get into on this

But pretty much not voting someone off increases the chance of the wolves winning more than voting someone at absolute random

Of course, the goal is to be at least a bit better than random

(Exceptions may apply in really PR heavy set-ups but you know let's stick with the general case)

(Yes I know this is a PR heavy set-up)

[Helgraf]

You *cannot* analyze trends without data. To do that, we need votes that do something. If we do not kill someone each day, we *are* handing the game to the wolves' night kill. We *are* failing to put any pressure on them that might make them slip up and give us the opportunity we need. We can't create situations where they have to respond if we do not engage the system - even though it (damn near always) means that some of our own will die. The day one lynch sucks most precisely because we need it to start building usable data and it will mathematically be more likely to kill a not-wolf than a wolf.

To hammer on a point. If we don't lynch our own, the night kills aren't going to provide useful data that will make future day lynches more useful. We need to see things like how people chose to react to the day 1; then look at day two. Ideally, after a few days the seer role will have managed to contact someone they can trust and start up a network, but the game can still be won without their input - it just makes networking more difficult since you don;t have quick verification.

Now, all this said? Am I saying Vallmark is an ideal choice for day one? No - we will have no idea on day one whom the ideal choice is unless someone does something incredibly stupid like wolfclaim. But someone *does* have to go up.

[AvatarVecna]

Town voting on D1 is random because we don't know anything about what's going on. Wolf voting on D1 is not random, but it's difficult to spot in the moment because there aren't really arguments to analyze. Yes, 99% of the time, the D1 lynch is a townie - this is the moment where there's the most villagers there's ever going to be. Even if the wolves voted completely randomly too, odds are that a villager would end up lynched, that's just statistical fact.

It doesn't matter. Yes, there's only like a 1% chance that we actually manage to lynch a wolf today, but if we refuse to lynch anybody, that changes to 0%. More importantly, there's like a chance that town lucks onto almost lynching scum, and the other scum have to maneuver their votes to keep their scumbuddy from dying. And that gives town info that we can look at 3 days from now - who moved to save this person, who moved because they were bored. Days from now, we can look back on D1 to try and figure out who wasn't voting randomly, especially if the vote goes weird with lots of jumping around.

[Xihirli]

So we haven't seen any new votes since the poke on Johnny, I'd really love to hear from our quiet people.

[Unavenger]

I'm going to keep my vote on AvatarVecna, because either AvatarVecna is lying through her teeth, or CaomhinTheCape is lying about AvatarVecna lying, and I know which one of those two things I believe more.

[JeenLeen]

I'm going to keep my vote on AvatarVecna, because either AvatarVecna is lying through her teeth, or CaomhinTheCape is lying about AvatarVecna lying, and I know which one of those two things I believe more.

When did Cao accuse AV of lying?

[AvatarVecna]

I'm going to keep my vote on AvatarVecna, because either AvatarVecna is lying through her teeth, or CaomhinTheCape is lying about AvatarVecna lying, and I know which one of those two things I believe more.

I can only assume Cao called me a liar in some private chat with you. Which, I mean, it's kinda fair cuz this was the last message I sent them:

I'm claiming Necromancer, but I'm not claiming it's an honest claim. Make of that what you will.

I do kinda wanna know for sure if the chat where Cao has called me a liar is one you can share with the class though.

[Apogee1]

QTs already going wild yup sounds about right

[Unavenger]

I do kinda wanna know for sure if the chat where Cao has called me a liar is one you can share with the class though.

Oh, sure, I guess one of us can make a new one:

https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/BBjymrdYq5AHi

So tell me, Avvie, why is everyone the thief? And how are you a dark knight/necromancer multiclass?

[AvatarVecna]

Oh, sure, I guess one of us can make a new one:

https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/BBjymrdYq5AHi

So tell me, Avvie, why is everyone the thief? And how are you a dark knight/necromancer multiclass?

Everyone isn't the thief. I am not a dark knight/necromancer combat, that would be absurdly unoptimal.

[The Outsider]

I'll second the "AV is taking shots in the dark" theory, since they said that I was the Beastmaster and they were the Hunter. Or possibly vice versa. Either way, I distinctly remember this happening the last time I played with 'em.

On another note, my attempt to get people talking has failed. Switching my vote back to Valmark.

[Kinro]

I am the Blue Mage. White Mage, if you heal me tonight and tell me who you are tomorrow, I will start healing you for as long as you heal me.

[Elenna]

Yeah, so I've been out of these types of games since ... 5-6 years ago. And I'm used to having erratic hours, so I post when I can to make sure I get a vote in. I have always believed that wasting a lynch favors only the wolves. We need 25% to get that. That's three votes. It's day one; we have amazingly little to work with, which always sucks - but surrendering a day, *especially* with a group this small to begin with is just not a good idea.

And so, I added my vote to ensure *someone* ended up in the rope once end of day arrives, in case we were still locked up and I was unable to get to my desktop when we're closed to actual end of phase.

Eh, I guess this makes sense, but 12 hours in still seems a bit early? Was there a chance you wouldn't make it back in the next 35ish hours? (Honest question, not rhetorical). Based on previous games I would be pretty surprised if there weren't two or three people around at EOD to shift their vote if necessary, but I guess I can understand wanting to be sure.

Regardless, this is a decent enough explanation and I prefer not to D1 lynch new players or people who haven't been here in a while unless I actually have reason to be suspicious of them, so I'm shifting my vote to Xihirli for the sake of creating a competing bandwagon and hopefully having something to analyze later.

Oh, sure, I guess one of us can make a new one:

https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/BBjymrdYq5AHi

So tell me, Avvie, why is everyone the thief? And how are you a dark knight/necromancer multiclass?

AV sent me "Hello Ninja. I'm the Paladin". AV, looks like I was right to guess you were fishing, lol.

[Valmark]

I am the Blue Mage. White Mage, if you heal me tonight and tell me who you are tomorrow, I will start healing you for as long as you heal me.

I genuinely don't get if this is bad wolf play (fishing for roles to watch out for) or just suspicious behavior.

On another note:
I highly doubt AV's a wolf and... Mh. That's all I've came up with since last time. Unavenger seems genuine but it wouldn't be the first time that's wrong.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I mean, I think my intent was clear enough now but I figured AV was lying to at least some people about the role they claimed. Like I said to Unavenger, that doesn't necessarily mean AV is Town or Wolf. People who have been around for recent games know AV usually makes claims early - I'm not putting any stock in the claims atm.

---

As for other stuff going on, I'm a little torn on whether or not to vote BookWombat/Johnny Patches. On the one hand, it's reasonable they're busy and just haven't be able to post. On the other, we had a player go afk last game and with no autolynches that can be a problem.

I'm going to keep my vote on Xihirli mostly so that someone else has multiple votes.

EDIT: I was Ninja'd by Elenna (and a bunch of others now), so now we actually have competing wagons.

---

After thinking about it more, I don't think Valmark's comment was wolfish. I'm not ready to say they're definitely town but Valmark's question to me seems reasonable, thinking that I made the comment because I had additional info (which, by extension, could mean Wolf with extra knowledge). I don't see myself voting for Valmark today.

---

I am the Blue Mage. White Mage, if you heal me tonight and tell me who you are tomorrow, I will start healing you for as long as you heal me.

This is actually a really interesting claim. I'm not sure how much I would want to read into it though, seeing as either role could be Wolf aligned.

---

The conversation about whether or not to lynch Day 1 didn't give me any reads on the people involved, but something to note this game is that if the Necromancer is Town, then a townie dying today doesn't necessarily remove them from the game. That player can still give their thoughts to the Necro, but can't use their ability or vote.

---

Vote Count (4 minimum to lynch)

Valmark (4): Apogee1, JeenLeen, Helgraf, The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): Unavenger
CaoimhintheCape(1): Xihirli
Apogee1 (1): Valmark
Xihirli (3): AvatarVecna, CaoimhintheCape, Elenna

Not Voting (1): Kinro
No Posts (2): BookWombat, Johnny Patches

[Valmark]

The conversation about whether or not to lynch Day 1 didn't give me any reads on the people involved, but something to note this game is that if the Necromancer is Town, then a townie dying today doesn't necessarily remove them from the game. That player can still give their thoughts to the Necro, but can't use their ability or vote.

Unless the lynched is the Necromancer.

[Xihirli]

Everyone isn't the thief. I am not a dark knight/necromancer combat, that would be absurdly unoptimal.

I like this quote. I’m excited to be a part of this game. I’ll check in more ASAP.

[Kinro]

If the White Mage is town and goes along with me, then we will form a pretty powerful block, one member of which may well still be hidden and attract wolves. And I can still be used to do things like confirm roles. Certainly, if anyone else said they are a Blue Mage, one of us would be lying and, therefore a wolf. And if I was a wolf, then it would be amazingly suspicious if the White Mage was to die after healing me. That's why I asked for the reveal to be tomorrow. Please don't tell me today, White Mage!

So, yeah, I'm I see a lot of positives, so I'm taking that bet, a strong alliance to help carry us through this.

[Elenna]

I am the Blue Mage. White Mage, if you heal me tonight and tell me who you are tomorrow, I will start healing you for as long as you heal me.

IDK, it's an interesting idea and having another person protected from night kills could be cool, but you could also be a wolf fishing for the identity of the white mage so I don't think they should actually go through with this plan.
Also, the white mage could be a wolf and kill you while you think you're protected, although a dead blue mage is probably less of a problem than a dead white mage. I also don't like publically deciding the white mage's target since then the wolves can kill whoever else they want without worrying, although the fact that the white mage can stop at any time somewhat negates that issue.

[Kinro]

If I was a wolf, knowing who the White Mage is on turn 2 doesn't help me, because I now couldn't let them die anyway. And, really, what are the chances of White Mage actually hitting the wolf's target at random?

Also, there's the bit where I don't have to actually say whether I was healed or not. No idea if White Mage actually likes my idea.

[Xihirli]

I say we leave this decision up to the White Mage.

Nobody ****s with the White Mage.

[Helgraf]

I'm going to keep my vote on AvatarVecna, because either AvatarVecna is lying through her teeth, or CaomhinTheCape is lying about AvatarVecna lying, and I know which one of those two things I believe more.

AvatarVecna also sent me one of these things to the effect of "Hello Paladin, I'm the White Mage."

Now whether they're a villager or a wolf, denying or aggreeing with their bait gives them data. It may be false data, but false data can be useful when it contradicts other data that comes up later.

It could be clever, but it can also put a big old bullseye on oneself.

[AvatarVecna]

It could be clever, but it can also put a big old bullseye on oneself.

These two things aren't as mutually exclusive as you might think. Making myself the epicenter of growing townie info (and potentially the hub of a full-blown townie network) could be me baiting wolves into killing me when that would be a mistake, but it could also be me betting that they're going to worry they're being baited and target somebody else, leaving my network to flourish.

I guess we'll find out come D2.

[Apogee1]

Poke inactives for a minute? BookWombat

Also w a g o n o m i c s

[The Outsider]

I tried that once, not sure if it'll get you anywhere.

For future reference, is it rude to try and lynch people who are inactive?

[Valmark]

I tried that once, not sure if it'll get you anywhere.

For future reference, is it rude to try and lynch people who are inactive?

It's rude the first day if I'm not wrong... Then it depends. Usually it's much preferable lacking a better option to lynch somebody not playing, and in case of auto-lynches lynching the inactive can get Town more time (again, if we don't already have a better target).

Though we don't have ALs this game.

[Xihirli]

These two things aren't as mutually exclusive as you might think. Making myself the epicenter of growing townie info (and potentially the hub of a full-blown townie network) could be me baiting wolves into killing me when that would be a mistake, but it could also be me betting that they're going to worry they're being baited and target somebody else, leaving my network to flourish.

I guess we'll find out come D2.

Or it could be a wolf making a gambit by putting a big target on themself but also gathering a bunch of info.