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2021-01-13, 03:55 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2015
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2021-01-14, 09:22 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2006
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- Raleigh NC
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
It seems the human cost of the epidemic is far greater than merely lives lost. Native American elders , typically living remotely with little access to medical care, are being decimated by the disease. We're losing a great deal of tradition and culture which was kept in their memory and will now be lost forever :(.
Respectfully,
Brian P."Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
-Valery Legasov in Chernobyl
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2021-01-14, 10:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
IIRC, there's been a drive for years to record those traditions and cultural knowledge, because people recognize the weakness of oral traditions - you need the holder of those traditions to actually vocalize them. And the population was aging.
There's a reason why a few NA nations tried to shut down highways going through the reservations...May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-14, 03:47 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2014
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- Ontario, Canada
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
And now apparently the first person in Quebec to get the vaccine subsequently developed Covid.
Of course, she the vaccine is just as likely to fail with her as anyone else, and she seems to have recovered (which may suggest it reduced her symptoms, though that's mere speculation), but this will certainly only add fuel to the fire of those who are rejecting the shot.
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2021-01-14, 04:13 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2010
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Last edited by NichG; 2021-01-14 at 04:16 PM.
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2021-01-14, 05:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2014
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- Ontario, Canada
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
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2021-01-14, 05:42 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2010
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
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2021-01-14, 06:00 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2016
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
{scrubbed}
Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-14 at 09:30 PM.
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2021-01-14, 06:55 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2011
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- Calgary, AB
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
{scrubbed}
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It looks as though I'm going to be waiting a while for mine, as I'm not in any of the at-risk groups thankfully. Looks Like I'm young enough to also be out of the running for the second major part of the roll-out (after all the high risk and front-line healthcare etc.), as it looks like it might be aimed at those of 30+ age. Which in a way makes it easy to choose, because I'm gonna be after all the initial data is in and it's proven effective across the wider population. Dangit, I'm trying to put my money where my mouth is and be responsible! Stop making me wait for others to get it first!
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2021-01-14, 06:55 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
She got the Pfizer vaccine, which has a lower initial protective effect from the first dose.
"The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen," the researchers wrote. "Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2.""May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-14, 07:42 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-14 at 09:33 PM.
Interested in MitD? Join us in MitD's thread.There is a world of imagination
Deep in the corners of your mind
Where reality is an intruder
And myth and legend thrive
Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est
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2021-01-14, 09:18 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2014
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- Ontario, Canada
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Anti-vaxxers used to be a relative fringe group, largely dismissed by society. Even the recent measles outbreaks don't really show them as being a very significant proportion of the overall population, given how few people need to reject the vaccine for such a virulent disease to take root again.
Over the course of the last year or so, however, misinformation and distrust have built to the point where a very sizable chunk of the population now has serious doubts about the vaccine.
Maybe it won't convince many people to change from a yes to a no, but there are a lot of people who are in the camp of "wait and see what happens", and I don't doubt this event (exaggerated or stretched to the point of falsehood) will be responsible for swaying a good number of them - if only for the coverage of it being the very first person vaccinated in the region.
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2021-01-14, 09:33 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2008
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Spoiler: I'm a writer!Spoiler: Check out my fanfiction[URL="https://www.fanfiction.net/u/7493788/Forum-Explorer"here[/URL]
]Fate Stay Nano: Fate Stay Night x Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha
I Fell in Love with a Storm: MLP
Procrastination: MLP
Spoiler: Original FictionThe Lost Dragon: A story about a priest who finds a baby dragon in his church and decides to protect them.
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2021-01-14, 09:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2016
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
*scrubbed*
Last edited by flat_footed; 2021-01-14 at 10:20 PM.
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2021-01-14, 10:10 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Last edited by flat_footed; 2021-01-14 at 10:20 PM.
Interested in MitD? Join us in MitD's thread.There is a world of imagination
Deep in the corners of your mind
Where reality is an intruder
And myth and legend thrive
Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est
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2021-01-14, 10:22 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2008
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Hah! Truth is like a lion indeed. If it isn't protected it'll be wiped out by humans.
Do you have any proof? Cause I've got 2 million dead worldwide that says you're wrong. And it wouldn't be hard to confirm COVID deaths if you really cared about doing so. Check the obituaries, crosscheck will daily reported deaths. And if that's not enough you could even phone the families involved or check their Facebooks.Last edited by flat_footed; 2021-01-14 at 10:29 PM.
Spoiler: I'm a writer!Spoiler: Check out my fanfiction[URL="https://www.fanfiction.net/u/7493788/Forum-Explorer"here[/URL]
]Fate Stay Nano: Fate Stay Night x Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha
I Fell in Love with a Storm: MLP
Procrastination: MLP
Spoiler: Original FictionThe Lost Dragon: A story about a priest who finds a baby dragon in his church and decides to protect them.
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2021-01-14, 10:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Moving back a few posts, which I hope is okay since it's moving to something less heated/scrubbed.
One thing I've been really surprised to learn (or realize, maybe) is that a vaccine doesn't make you fully immune, nor does having a disease. Like, I thought the reason you get a flu vaccine each year is that the flu mutates so, even if you're immune to the strains that were around last year, it's new ones this year. Or that if I got strep throat a second time, it was a different strain of the strepococcus bacteria that must be causing the infection. Since, if it were the exact same virus or bacteria, my body would know how to fight it since it's been exposed.
But I've learned, at least in some cases, the body 'forgets'. I guess I always knew that since tetanus vaccines don't last forever, but it really hit me with thinking about COVID vaccines.
Do we know why our body 'remembers' for some diseases and not others? Like, we don't get chicken pox twice, and it sounds like the measles vaccine really stops you from getting measles. Or -- at least to a layman's eyes -- it is basically "random" (not truly random, but hard to explain/predict) and we don't know how long a vaccine lasts until we learn it empirically?
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2021-01-14, 10:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Yes, let's do that. That's a good idea. I approve of dragging me by the collar away from the likely ire of mods.
I recommend watching the video I posted a page ago for Brian. Simplifying, our "memory" of diseases is a specific type of immune cell which, instead of being sent off to the front lines, is retained in the immune centres, asleep, until it is needed in the next infection. But (and feel free to chant along, or pelt me with tomatoes for sounding like a broken record) biology is really messy, so it is possible that not enough of those cells were stored away after getting the infection the first time (for example, because your first line of defence was enough to repel the virus, so it never got around to generating antibodies), or were malformed, and they don't actually generate the right antibodies, or have died since, or any number of other issues.
Since the length of protection tends to be well understood and be broadly identical across the entire population, I suspect that the last one - limited lifespan of the memory cells - is likely the cause. But I don't actually know; I'll try and remember and ask a good friend of mine who happens to be a microbiologist, and (probably like all doctors) has spent the last year fielding questions about this. Note to self, speaking of: remember to buy them a bottle of good wine.
Grey WolfLast edited by Grey_Wolf_c; 2021-01-14 at 11:05 PM.
Interested in MitD? Join us in MitD's thread.There is a world of imagination
Deep in the corners of your mind
Where reality is an intruder
And myth and legend thrive
Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est
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2021-01-15, 08:53 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2011
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
My sister recently got her second dose of the vaccine (although I'm not sure which manufacturer it was), and she said it was much worse than the first dose. She needed a two-day recovery.
Last edited by Lord Torath; 2021-01-15 at 08:54 AM.
Warhammer 40,000 Campaign Skirmish Game: Warpstrike
My Spelljammer stuff (including an orbit tracker), 2E AD&D spreadsheet, and Vault of the Drow maps are available in my Dropbox. Feel free to use or not use it as you see fit!
Thri-Kreen Ranger/Psionicist by me, based off of Rich's A Monster for Every Season
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2021-01-15, 09:48 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Probably the Moderna one, then. It's been noted the second dose side-effects are ... a little more extreme than the first dose.
For now, my side effects have more or less subsided (mostly it felt like Evander Holyfield decided to give me a 'friendly' jab in the deltoid), save one that's a bit odd.
My nose seems to be a lot clearer. No joking, my sense of smell seems to have been supercharged. And taste.
And given my love of things that have cayenne, habanero, ghost pepper...Last edited by sihnfahl; 2021-01-15 at 09:48 AM.
May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-15, 11:58 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
I guess I should have expected this. We have a new form of medical tourism: people crossing state lines to get vaccinations.
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2021-01-15, 12:28 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Given the haphazard method of distribution, it was predictable.
Some places were inevitably going to be getting more doses than they could distribute at a time. Some places, too few.
And people wanting the vaccine will go where they can to get them, once they hear the vaccinations are available.
Which, depending on the area, might not even get out, leading to vaccine spoilage and disposal.May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-15, 12:40 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
The lack of a national level distribution plan is really evident, isn't it? How is the rollout going in non-U.S. countries?
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2021-01-15, 12:59 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2006
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- Raleigh NC
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Before I review the earlier thread, I would like to present a pair of dueling studies on the effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) or "lockdowns" as they are colloquially known.
The first is from Imperial College and was conducted in June.
Originally Posted by Imperial College
Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden that implemented only lrNPIs (Spain had a non‐significant effect). After subtracting the epidemic and lrNPI effects, we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country. In France, e.g., the effect of mrNPIs was +7% (95CI ‐5%‐19%) when compared with Sweden, and +13% (‐12%‐38%) when compared with South Korea (positive means pro‐contagion). The 95% confidence intervals excluded 30% declines in all 16 comparisons and 15% declines in 11/16 comparisons.
Conclusions
While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.
So .. what to make of this?
Are they really in disagreement? Imperial seems to be saying that any NPI is more effective than the 'herd immunity' strategy, while Stanford seems to be addressing a more fine-grained difference in the kind of NPI employed. In other words, getting people to mask and social distance gives you most of the benefit while additionally going so far as to restrict travel etc. gives little additional benefit.
Or is there a fundamental difference in their modeling and assumptions which brings about a disparate result? If so, can anyone here put an easy finger as to what the difference between the two studies is that generates such different interpretations between the two?
Or, as in my first paragraph, is this not an apples to apples comparison? Are the studies actually in agreement that A) NPI is beneficial but B) that doesn't mean you need a stay-at-home-essential-travel-only NPI to get the benefit?
Another possibility is the factor of time in the studies: Perhaps if you intervene at the very start of an infection you can save millions of lives, but if you wait until you're in the middle of one there's little benefit to locking the barn after the horse is gone. Is that a reasonable conclusion to draw from the two studies?
Respectfully,
Brian P.Last edited by pendell; 2021-01-15 at 01:11 PM.
"Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
-Valery Legasov in Chernobyl
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2021-01-15, 01:10 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
My first remark is to examine to make sure they're covering the same time frames. The difference in issue dates tells me before I read the articles I'm likely to find the Stanford one extends into the late-summer/early-autumn when numbers started spiking because people stopped obeying most of the lockdown rules due to COVID fatigue.
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2021-01-15, 01:15 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2006
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Easy enough to check. Stanford covers March-May 2020 while Oxford covers February-May. They are overlapping the same time period . So I was wrong about one bit -- both studies are covering the initial outbreak in Spring of 2020. In terms of time frame, the comparison is apples to apples.
Respectfully,
Brian P."Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
-Valery Legasov in Chernobyl
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2021-01-15, 01:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2010
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
I suspect the devil is in the details. The Stanford paper talks about subtracting the effect of lrNPIs and the general course of the virus but they use two hand-picked countries to create that baseline: South Korea and Sweden.
They say in the case of SK that they did not implement mrNPIs but instead relied on extensive contact tracing and testing. But since the countries they're subtracting SK from didn't use as extensive contact tracing and testing, any sort of advantage from that would be attributed against mrNPIs.
On the other hand, they may be using Sweden and SK to bracket the extremes since it looks like they do pairwise comparisons.
Will look in more detail later.
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2021-01-15, 01:37 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
The difference is based entirely on how they find their data.
In order to actually know the effect of any given measure, you'd need to know how things turn out both with and without that measure being in place. Without time travel, this is impossible. So, both studies looked for reasonable ways to estimate the effects.
The first essentially measured case growth for an individual country before and after each restriction was put in place.
The second simply compared countries that did employ harsh measures with those that didn't.
This alone would account for discrepancies, but unfortunately doesn't really answer the question of who has the more accurate estimate; they both have flaws.
Personally, though, I'd say the second method has more fundamental flaws; first, because it only uses two countries that did not undergo lockdowns as a comparison, and because each country implemented their measures with differing levels of effectiveness. South Korea, for example, had a very efficient contact tracing program that seems to have been as effective as a lockdown. However, that's not the same as saying that a lockdown would have no additional effect, nor does it imply that other countries would have the same success if they went a similar route.
Edit: The last line you quoted even says as much: "Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions."
That is to say, there's a benefit, but it could also be achieved other ways. The question then becomes whether those ways are feasible in other cultures, what the cost associated with them is compared to a lockdown, and what the combined effect of doing both would be.
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2021-01-15, 02:06 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2010
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
It occurs to me that a better way to estimate the effect of lockdowns would be to look at increases in R following the ending of lockdowns and matching those against decreases in R when lockdowns are initiated. Basically, mismatch between those is the collective effect of everything else going on. Best to do it at city or county level than country level as well, when that's possible.
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2021-01-15, 07:02 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2005
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- Santa Barbara, CA
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Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
For the Corona anti-vaxxers (who seem to be somewhat different but overlapping the pre-Covid antivaxxers) I agree they will be using any evidence, even marginal stuff, to confirm their pre-existing beliefs. . . Humans being human really...
The 23 deaths in the elderly (out of a total of 33K administered doses) in Norway is honestly more concerning. it may be an artifact, a run of luck, a bad batch, etc but I'd say there is both a reason to be concerned as a real data point and a hangup for people to use to confirm their beliefs.
As for the Stanford vs Imperial studies.
meh if you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything. -R.H. Coase
So there is the question of asking the question in such a way as to get the answer desired...to avoid politics I'll leave it at that but gives an idea
Also how are they getting their counterfactual models in the Imperial study....there are a fair number of assumptions in there that SWAG's.
Stanford is calling very different systems (S Korea and Sweden) effectively in the same boat because they both avoided 1 particular family of tactics (lockdowns of various sorts). Which, yes does come from the small sample size of countries that didn't but are also not very analogous.
To be fair both seem pretty open about these issues.
Also I'm not sure people are having the Covid fatigue and are following the guidelines less on a large scale...sure I bet it is happening in some places. But anti-mask demonstrations, people complaining about those not wearing masks etc seems to be at a lower level than the spring. Sure christmas gathering finger-wagging has replaced spring break finger wagging but travel and grouping issues hold. People were still denying covid was real on a fairly large scale during these studies data collection periods. So I'm not sure a wide brush "compliance was better then" can be assumed.