Raging Loop

[Cazero]

Cazero, explain why you voted AV over Ilven please?

I wanted to start a proper AV/Illven wagon duel so we would see who hopped where. People stayed on Zelphas for some reason.

[AvatarVecna]

Your analysis on Caz at the end of D1/beginning N1 seems like valid scumhunting to me, but I think it's more likely he's just slanking and posting at random periods. Not defending him, but I've seen it all too many times. He's neutral for me right now, and I think there are bigger fish to fry.

Are you an old hand at this? Weird, I thought you were new.

How many of the Zelph, AV, Blade, JL and snow group that voted ilven are scum? I'd say there has to be at least one here due to wagonomics. Are we thinking 3 scum, 1 badger? Or is that too OP in a flipless game? Wagonomics would also say that one of the 4 people in the Zelph group (Il, pers, LS, Taff) is scum too.[/quote]

I'm pretty sure it's 3 wolves and badger. 3 wolves and no badger is a lil UP but quite fine. 3 wolves and badger is a bit less balanced in the opposite direction but still quite viable for town. 2 wolves and 1 badger would be pretty bad for wolves, I think. They're barely better informed than masons at that point.

Since we've got a badger flip I'm inclined to think 3 wolves instead of 2. That's also just the safe assumption: assuming 3 when there's two is just a bit paranoid, assuming 2 when there's 3 means LYLO sneaks up on us.

[Taffimai]

The more I’m thinking about it, honestly the "No role reveals on death? I should counterclaim!" Sounds SO MUCH like Vecna to me.
So uh did anyone get any info on them? AvatarVecna can’t be too safe.

I agree with you, but I also think it's better to be safe than sorry, so let's leave her alive for a bit in case she messes up.

Snow is town.

Pocket denied.

bladescape says Snowblaze is town. Quite a bit of confidence there. Enough I'll assume there's a reason, and I fully support us not knowing the reason.
Xi sort of claimed Seer near the end of D1. I think it was a joke, but... well, Xi, if you really want me to vote AV, claim for real.
Given that all, I don't want to vote any of them (bladescape, Snowblaze, Xihirli) without some strong info against them.

So if Xihirli is Snake she should claim, but if it's Bladescape he shouldn't? I'm all for meta, but this seems a very unfair way to treat these two players who basically made similar statements.

Cazero voted AV D1, and then during Night called out that a wolf!AV would've been signaling Badger to join the wolves.
He is right that if AV is wolf, Illven was Crow, and the real Badger is around.
But I don't like him saying it at Night. That just increases the odds that Badger notices the signal. (Yes, a Badger in that case probably would notice regardless of Cazero's comment, but it still seems a bad comment to make at Night.) If you're town, wait to make that post until Day.
Let me try to think this through...

• If AV is Crow and Cazero is town, it was just a poorly-timed (well-reasoned but inaccurate) comment.
• If AV is Crow and Cazero is wolf, the vote on AV is confusing, but seems a safe move for a wolf to make to act participating. The night-talk is casting shade on Crow by showing how it could be a wolf lying.
• If AV is wolf and Cazero is town, it was just a poorly-timed (quite accurate) comment.
• If AV is wolf and Cazero is wolf, it was a bonus signaling to the real Badger, plus distancing between wolves.

So either it was a poorly-timed post, or Cazero is likely a wolf.

Cazero didn't need to signal to Badger bc Badger was always going to target AV last night for the 50/50 odds of joining the wolves, unless AV herself is Badger. If AV is Badger, then Cazero is likely a wolf.

Snowblaze, I would like to hear if you still think Zelphas looks iffy enough to start off voting him. But I'm going to start with Cazero.

This looks very partnered. If AV is town, I could totally see a Snow/JeenLeen world. Maybe with Serpentine? The thing is, if we had Crow/Badger yesterday, then from the wolves' perspective there must've been a brief moment of "omg what's going on" before the penny dropped. Both Snow and Serpentine could fit that "going quiet until they figure it out" scenario. But it's a big if.


I have no clue who I want to vote yet. I have only one townlean and I'm not telling.

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Are you an old hand at this? Weird, I thought you were new.

Reading first page OP

[AvatarVecna]

Reading first page OP

Ah, I see. Yeah it's possible I've not been paying as much attention as I should lol

[bladescape]

ftr I would like an explanation even though I know I'm probably not getting one.

I rolled on the Random Events Table and it came up with "Blade claims random townlean for no reason."

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Pocket denied.

It's okay I was pocketing Snow not you

[Snowblaze]

I rolled on the Random Events Table and it came up with "Blade claims random townlean for no reason."

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It's okay I was pocketing Snow not you

You do know you don't need to pocket your wolf partner, right?

And more seriously, since I have reached that point: bladescape is null on general principle, I don't feel like quoting all his posts and saying "NAI" a lot so I won't.

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Also I realised I was being stupid earlier, AV claiming Ilven was Badger does actually make sense as wolf!AV signalling to non-Ilven!Badger. Sorry Cazero. And shut up, tinfoil voice.

[JeenLeen]

In general, I'm not meaning to seer-hunt.

Xi made a probably-joke-thing and then voted the maybe-Crow; if she wants us to follow her on principals other than "AV is suspicious because she's AV", then I want more. I can definitely see the seer knowing AV is wolf at this state in the game, but not wanting to overtly say it... but I can also see vanilla!Xi doing this for fun or to protect the real seer... or wolf!Xi doing this for fun or some plot.
I can also see the seer (whoever it is) knowing AV is wolf and waiting.

bladescape is a wolf doing something odd, a townie doing something odd, or has a mechanical reason for it. I don't want him to say which.

I'm going to assume it's town reasons unless other evidence arises, at least D2, since we've other some stuff we can really analyze.

I wanted to start a proper AV/Illven wagon duel so we would see who hopped where. People stayed on Zelphas for some reason.

That does make sense for the vote. If it had really gotten to AV vs. Illven in debate and votes, we could analyze that a lot clearer.

Can you explain your Night post?

Honest question, do you always special-hunt like this? I also find it interesting that you have my two largest scum leans (Xihi and Taff) as town leans. Your analysis on Caz at the end of D1/beginning N1 seems like valid scumhunting to me, but I think it's more likely he's just slanking and posting at random periods. Not defending him, but I've seen it all too many times. He's neutral for me right now, and I think there are bigger fish to fry.

How many of the Zelph, AV, Blade, JL and snow group that voted ilven are scum? I'd say there has to be at least one here due to wagonomics. Are we thinking 3 scum, 1 badger? Or is that too OP in a flipless game? Wagonomics would also say that one of the 4 people in the Zelph group (Il, pers, LS, Taff) is scum too.

At this point, I would put money on the LS, Taff, Xihi group having at least one scum, and probably two. LS I need to look at more, but Taff and Xihi completely rub me the wrong way and LS makes sense given the context of the vote counts. However, I think it's much less likely that LS and Taff are scum-scum, because last nights vote would put too much of a target on them.

Not sure exactly what you mean by "special hunt". Is that hunting for power roles, or focusing on someone to hunt them specifically?
If power roles, not usually. I was trying to comment without saying anything the wolves wouldn't already be considering. What I really don't know is if Xi/bladescape (if town) are saying this honestly or spreading misinfo for the wolves. But I feel okay saying that since I'm sure the wolves are equally confused; Xi and bladescape often confuse.
And that's also part of why I don't feel inclined to vote Xi today. Yes, her logic is unsound: we shouldn't kill our possible Crow without evidence. But I think it's either Xihirli acting crazy/ignorant either for fun or to set up something good. Or, yeah, could be a wolf, but nothing implies that to me yet.

If you mean making my arguement to hunt Cazero... yeah? I guess maybe I should have held off on a strong accusation until a little later in the Day, but I feel okay so far with how it turned out.

I'm leaning 3 Wolves and 1 Badger. While flipless helps the wolves, the wolves don't have powers while Town does. Generally in games here, both teams have powers, and that makes 2 seem too low. I wouldn't rule out 4 starting Wolves as possible, but I think it extremely unlikely.

For my maybe-scumleans, I want to think through AV vs. Illven more, especially regarding Taffimai. I think Taffimai was either a legit townie or a wolf trying to accomplish something. I hope to get a better sense of what makes more sense once I build out some logic for interpreting D1. To be honest, I think my first priority is to build my analysis chart, then to reread parts of D1. (RL might prevent me from rereading this day, but hope to sometime this Day.)

---

I'm starting to build my 3-way analysis of AV, Illven, and Zelphas. I think the below are true or reasonable assumptions. If anyone sees a flaw, please point it out.

Illven and AV cannot both be wolves. D1 makes no sense in that case.
I am assuming that, if AV is a wolf, Illven is not Badger. (It's possible Badger!Illven fakeclaimed, and wolf!AV fake-counterclaimed, and realCrow stayed on the sidelines letting baddies destroy each other. But I think it's too unlikely to consider.)
I am assuming AV is not Badger. (Makes no sense and hurts my sanity building this chart.)
I am assuming Zelphas is not Badger. (This assumption is not really valid, and I'm using it mostly to help shorten my chart. BUT I don't think it impacts my analysis in the end. The wolves wouldn't knwo who Badger is, so they'd treat Zelphas like any other townie. So the analysis from Badger!Zelphas is the same as Town!Zelphas.)

Given those assumptions and basic if-else truths:
If AV is wolf, Illven is Crow. (No reason for Crow!Illven to lie.)
If AV is not wolf, AV is town and Crow.
If AV is Crow, Illven is Badger. (No reason for Crow!AV to lie about that.) Consequently, Zelphas is not Badger, but again, that's not really relevant for analysis.

So I'm contemplating these possible scenarios:
AV is wolf, Illven is Crow, Zelphas is town
AV is wolf, Illven is Crow, Zelphas is wolf
AV is town, Illven is Badger, Zelphas is town
AV is town, Illven is Badger, Zelphas is wolf

Again, let me know if you see a flaw or I'm missing a non-implausible scenario.

[Xihirli]

I would understand this sentiment if AV lasts until the final 3 or whatever, but not now. Innocent until counterclaim/proven otherwise.

There WAS a counterclaim, if you recall, and we still don’t know if it’s true.

[Snowblaze]

I can't be bothered to do proper ISOs so you get vague-thoughts-from-skimming instead.

So, let's talk about Squork. (Hey, it rhymes!)

I disagree with a lot of his reads but I think they make sense from the perspective of someone who doesn't know the people here and has a different approach to the game to me. There's some decent observations there, enough to make it seem like a real solving process, but my gut isn't really convinced he's town.

Eh. I don't feel like listening to my gut here. Townlean, pending more information.

(Tinfoil note: Squork is probably highly likely to suggest/encourage the Persolus N1. I think that kill can come from a lot of different wolfteams given dodging baner + he was one of the most active players and not widely suspected, though, so I don't think it's actually sufficient evidence to suspect Squork.)

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I knew I remembered someone doing this:

Cool, toss my name in there too.

Hmm
This is a puzzle. My gut is telling me NEITHER of you are wolves, because what a weird move for the non-crow to take.

If this was a newer player I would be snapvoting it, but it's Xihirli and I can't read Xihirli. Actually, no, I do think it's kind of wolfy. Maybe.

(Actual explanation: assuming Crow!AV/Badger!Ilven, wolves had two people claiming Crow neither of whom was a wolf, and are thus a lot more likely to discuss the possibility of town/town claimants since town would just accept as a matter of course it's imp...robable, remembering the Greiger mess last time round.)

The rest of Xihirli's stuff is just standard Xihirli being herself, with the possible exception of trying to wagon AV but considering that my tinfoil voice is refusing to be silenced I can understand that.

AV self-resolves in >90% of circumstances. Killing them is counterproductive. We shouldn't do it. I'll keep repeating that to myself for a while.

[Squork]

There WAS a counterclaim, if you recall, and we still don’t know if it’s true.

…and we have no reason to think it’s false until we’re provided with further evidence of such. Plus, I’m don’t think the trade of badger for crow either way is good for us in the long run, so I think we run the risk of thinking we got the badger and kept the crow for at least another night or two. The longer AV stays alive, the more sus I’ll be but that’s just how it goes with special claims.

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Let’s not forget that town il has no reason to claim a role with 3 votes against in the middle of D1!

[Snowblaze]

Let’s not forget that town il has no reason to claim a role with 3 votes against in the middle of D1!

I think regardless of Ilven's alignment she's unused to being a target of arbitrary pressure D1 and panicked as a result of it. Which is understandable.

[JeenLeen]

Some interesting posts from D1
In post 54 (after Illven claimed but before AV did), Snowblaze votes Zelphas and asks me to join her.
In post 56 (also before AV counterclaimed), Lady Ti votes Zelphas.
In post 57, Taffimai votes Cazero. (Not really relevant here but worth noting if he flips wolf.)
In post 125, Snowblaze votes Illven.


AV is wolf, Illven is Crow, Zelphas is town
Wolves wanted Illven lynched, and didn't care about Zelphas except that Illven was the better lynch candidate.

If this is the case, Lady Ti sticking on Zelphas looks towny. She had ever opportunity to switch to Illven if she were a wolf.

Likewise, Taffimai's arguements for keeping both AV and Illven alive are... maybe towny. It could be Taffimai is Badger and knew one of them was a wolf, so wanted both to stay alive to keep a possible contact alive, but I don't think it would have gotten that heated if such were the case. I could see wolf!Taffimai doing this to distance with AV, get Zelphas lynched as a bystander townie, and then hopefully have towncred when the seer or a Monkey-misread eventually outs AV... but seems unlikely; too dangerous to leave Illven alive. So towncred if this turns out true.

For Cazero... him voting AV instead of Illven looks towny at first glance. But I could see wolf!Cazero being nervous about putting another vote on the real-Crow wagon, and, seeing no votes on AV, thought this safe. At this stage, voting Zelphas was more the anti-AV move than voting AV herself.

AV is wolf, Illven is Crow, Zelphas is wolf
Lady Ti is almost certainly Town. She could have put the vote elsewhere than Zelphas. I heard Lady Ti has a reputation for bussing scumbuddies, so maybe she (if wolf) thought Zelphas would respond in a way to let her move her vote off him, but... pretty good towncred for Lady Ti in this scenario.

Taffimai is Town. Voting Illven is 100% the right move for wolf!Taffimai in this scenario.

Snowblaze voted Illven in the end, but rather late in the Day when Day might be ending any moment, so it sounds more sincere than a wolf trying to save a scumbuddy. All in all, my analysis of Snowblaze here is similar to my thoughts on Lady Ti. Not full towncred, but pretty good.

Cazero could be a third wolf.

AV is town, Illven is Badger, Zelphas is town
In this situation, we have almost nothing to analyze. Wolves were probably baffled and happy to let the townies fight amongst themselves.
Cazero or Lady Ti's votes make sense as something a wolf could do to look participating/active without really risking themselves. As someone already noted, the silence could be a wolf being confused at first.
The actions done by Snowblaze and Taffimai make sense as wolf or town, but the emotion with them rings towny to me. More towncred to Taffimai than Snowblaze in this scenario, but some towncred to both. ::paranoia rising:: though maybe a wolf would get heated, knowing it doesn't matter, wanting to try to get a non-Badger lynched if they realized one must be Badger... but, uh, I'll still give towncred.

AV is town, Illven is Badger, Zelphas is wolf
If this is true, Taffimai and Snowblaze are Town. Both were pushing to lynch Zelphas rather heatedly, while I think they'd rather a Crow claimaint die if they were wolf.
Lady Ti probably town, as I think she would have put her vote elsewhere than Zelphas.
Cazero's actions look as wolfy as in other scenarios.

If this was a newer player I would be snapvoting it, but it's Xihirli and I can't read Xihirli. Actually, no, I do think it's kind of wolfy. Maybe.

(Actual explanation: assuming Crow!AV/Badger!Ilven, wolves had two people claiming Crow neither of whom was a wolf, and are thus a lot more likely to discuss the possibility of town/town claimants since town would just accept as a matter of course it's imp...robable, remembering the Greiger mess last time round.)

The rest of Xihirli's stuff is just standard Xihirli being herself, with the possible exception of trying to wagon AV but considering that my tinfoil voice is refusing to be silenced I can understand that.

AV self-resolves in >90% of circumstances. Killing them is counterproductive. We shouldn't do it. I'll keep repeating that to myself for a while.

Good points.
Xi could be a wolf setting up a fakeclaim, or testing the waters to lynch the real Crow AV. And it's possible the wolves might try the gambit Illven tried, especially if Xi is one of those wolves. I can see someone wanting to vote Xi.
And, yes, wolf!AV will get caught and killed sooner or later. Either seer will catch her or she'll misread a Monkey.

[Cazero]

My intuition tells me that Xi just wants to enforce the no flip part of the game. Not sure if it's AI.

In retrospect, we should have kept Illven alive. As AV said, the fake Crow would have been caught in a lie sooner and later, and knowing what the wolves wants us to think could have been useful.

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Can you explain your Night post?

I was just making our two options explicit.
Either Illven was indeed Badger, in wich case her panicking and fake claiming with only two votes on her can be considered a missplay due to lack of coaching, or Illven was crow in wich case AV used the fake flip to signal to the real Badger.

[JeenLeen]

Can you explain your Night post?

My intuition tells me that Xi just wants to enforce the no flip part of the game. Not sure if it's AI.

In retrospect, we should have kept Illven alive. As AV said, the fake Crow would have been caught in a lie sooner and later, and knowing what the wolves wants us to think could have been useful.

I asked Cazero to answer this, and he still hasn't.
I can kinda see it getting lost in the other text I wrote, but I did quote him. Maybe I'm tunneling him, but I'm leaning on him purposefully "not noticing" to avoid drawing heat.

Cazero, can you give an answer?
I wrote up some stuff, but I'm saving it to Notepad for now until 1) you answer or 2) I have to leave and might not be online again until near end-of-Day.
Real life is looking extra crazy today and the weekend is bad for posting for me, so I got something I want to post in the next hour or so.

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Ninja'd by him posting. Will consider then respond.

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Follow-up question

I was just making our two options explicit.
Either Illven was indeed Badger, in wich case her panicking and fake claiming with only two votes on her can be considered a missplay due to lack of coaching, or Illven was crow in wich case AV used the fake flip to signal to the real Badger.

Why didn't you wait until Day to post?

[Cazero]

Why didn't you wait until Day to post?

I really didn't think a nothingburger like that would be a big deal. If the Badger's still alive, they would have noticed and planned on trying their luck on AV on two accounts already.

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Also just in case AV is indeed wolf : better keep that idea floating around before it's too late to reconsider.

[Squork]

Alright everyone.

Every winning lynch wagon within the first two rounds has had AT LEAST one scum in my experience. Last night, that wagon was Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, and Snow, so I think it's quite likely that there is at least one scum here. 1/5 in a game of 14. I know, gamebreaking stuff. Hear me out.

Il had 3 votes before freaking out and special-claiming, and that was from Zelph, AV and LS. However, LS switched AFTER the Il claim, but before the AV chaos began. This is something town and scum could both do, but that is also unimportant to my point. Any scum seeing the ensuing chaos would've realized that one of the two is 100% the badger, and that keeping BOTH alive would be the best case scenario to not make a mistake. *So the fact Blade, JL and Snow joined the wagon late looks really damn good for them.* Caz voted AV during the chaos, which helps his case.

What does this mean? Well...

1. The law of Wagonomics AND probability: One of Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, and Snow are bad
2. Voting Il or AV, especially right after the chaos started is much townier given the high badger potential
3. This protects Blade, JL, (Caz) and Snow, in that order. Snow is the most likely to be scum just given how long it took to join in, but I'll still TP lean for now.
4. AV is the acting Seer

THEREFORE

5. Zelph has to be scum

Zelphas

[JeenLeen]

I really didn't think a nothingburger like that would be a big deal. If the Badger's still alive, they would have noticed and planned on trying their luck on AV on two accounts already.

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Also just in case AV is indeed wolf : better keep that idea floating around before it's too late to reconsider.

If it's so obvious that Badger necessarily would have noticed, it's also so obvious that someone would notice and speak up D2. So there's not really a "too late to reconsider". Unless I misunderstand what you're saying.

Everything you said makes sense, in the sense it is something that both could be true and is reasonable from a townie.
But nothing you said makes me think it's less likely my wolf-read was accurate. Even your level of defensiveness is about right that it's hard to tell if legit towny trying to look town by not being too defensive, or wolf trying to defend themself without looking so defensive they out themselves. WIFOM.

That said, ::copying stuff from Notepad:: I was on scumteam with Cazero last game. Maybe some of his small and scattered posts that game were just posts to post, but they either felt like a calculated move to me or were explicitly noted as such in wolfchat. He might seem like he's not really participating much, but I can completely see a wolf!Cazero making those little posts as calculated stabs to subtly elicit the desired responses.
Some folk have a very different Town game than Wolf game, and maybe Town!Cazero makes those posts with less concern about looking wolfy (legitimate, most players are like that), but I'd think he would realize that Night post would look bad and know better than to make it.
Unless he's a town power wanting to look wolfy at Night so the wolves are more likely to kill a vanilllager than him -- legit possibility, and Cazero please don't admit such unless a big wagon forms on you -- then his Night post looks wolf to me.

::ending Notepad::

But him calling his post a "nothingburger" makes me think that's not the reason. (Not that I'd want him to say it explicitly or maybe even implicitly if that were the reason, but if it were, I wouldn't expect that to be his answer.)

Alright everyone.

Every winning lynch wagon within the first two rounds has had AT LEAST one scum in my experience. Last night, that wagon was Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, and Snow, so I think it's quite likely that there is at least one scum here. 1/5 in a game of 14. I know, gamebreaking stuff. Hear me out.

Il had 3 votes before freaking out and special-claiming, and that was from Zelph, AV and LS. However, LS switched AFTER the Il claim, but before the AV chaos began. This is something town and scum could both do, but that is also unimportant to my point. Any scum seeing the ensuing chaos would've realized that one of the two is 100% the badger, and that keeping BOTH alive would be the best case scenario to not make a mistake. *So the fact Blade, JL and Snow joined the wagon late looks really damn good for them.* Caz voted AV during the chaos, which helps his case.

What does this mean? Well...

1. The law of Wagonomics AND probability: One of Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, and Snow are bad
2. Voting Il or AV, especially right after the chaos started is much townier given the high badger potential
3. This protects Blade, JL, (Caz) and Snow, in that order. Snow is the most likely to be scum just given how long it took to join in, but I'll still TP lean for now.
4. AV is the acting Seer

THEREFORE

5. Zelph has to be scum

Zelphas

I like the argument you're making at a first glance, but I want to reread it and have time to think about it before I change my vote. Going offline soon. Hope to be online this evening, but should be able to get back on before Day ends even if I can't tonight.
In the meantime, folk can see my argument against Cazero and yours against Zelphas.

[Snowblaze]

So. Who's left? AV, Jeen and Taffimai. AV is self-resolving, Jeen is probably just town. I have a vague feeling that Taffimai D1 was taking stronger stances than wolf!her usually does, but I haven't played enough with Taffimai of either alignment recently to have a good handle on her meta. Add her to the "to go over properly tomorrow" pile.

Which leaves...

Either locktown or outed wolf: AvatarVecna
Townleans of various strengths: JeenLeen, Squork, Taffimai
Null: bladescape, Book Wombat, Armonia13
Slightly below null pending review: Lady Serpentine
Wolflean but for reasons I'm no longer sure are valid: Cazero
Wolflean but also it's Xihirli and I can't read her: Xihirli
Actual wolflean with slightly less hedge attached: Zelphas
Now only mostly clueless: Snowblaze

Eh, it'll do for now. Taking questions if people have them, though I probably won't answer for nine hours or so because sleep. Will actually vote once I've seen Zelphas's reads list.

[AvatarVecna]

Also I realised I was being stupid earlier, AV claiming Ilven was Badger does actually make sense as wolf!AV signalling to non-Ilven!Badger. Sorry Cazero. And shut up, tinfoil voice.

Scumlean on Snow for TMI.

EDIT: Hmmm there's a plausible townie explanation actually.

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bladescape is a wolf doing something odd, a townie doing something odd, or has a mechanical reason for it. I don't want him to say which.

If bladescape is a wolf doing something odd, I would personally appreciate if he'd announce it, even just as a goof. Openwolfing, all the kids are doing it!

I wouldn't rule out 4 starting Wolves as possible, but I think it extremely unlikely.

4 wolves and a badger would be very scumsided even if the game had role reveals.

D1: Starts 9-1-4, ends 8-1-4.
N1: Starts 8-1-4, ends 7-1-4.
D2: Starts 7-1-4, ends 6-1-4.
N2: Starts 6-1-4, ends 5-1-4.
D3: Starts 5-1-4.

Let's be realistic here: town can't take out wolves at night. D1, town almost always hits town. D2, town is pretty likely to hit town. N1/N2 baner is unlikely to block a kill, angeldodging is too easy, and in a 4 wolf setup, getting kills quick matters more than getting power roles. If badger hasn't already joined up with wolves N1 (or flipped), a wolf can stand up N2 and say "I am a wolf please join me". D3 probably starts with badger and wolves joining forces, making it 5v5. Assuming narrator doesn't just call it there, town will equivocate on whether to vote the person openwolfing just long enough for all the wolves to dogpile one townie. And ties break towards whoever reached the tied vote total first. Wolves can control the lynch at SoD3.

If there's 4 wolves and badger is alive, LYLO is right now. That's too early.

For my maybe-scumleans, I want to think through AV vs. Illven more, especially regarding Taffimai. I think Taffimai was either a legit townie or a wolf trying to accomplish something.

Way to narrow it down.

So I'm contemplating these possible scenarios:
AV is wolf, Illven is Crow, Zelphas is town
AV is wolf, Illven is Crow, Zelphas is wolf
AV is town, Illven is Badger, Zelphas is town
AV is town, Illven is Badger, Zelphas is wolf

Again, let me know if you see a flaw or I'm missing a non-implausible scenario.

IIoA. You're basically just listing every possible alignment combination without stating which one you think is more likely.

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Let’s not forget that town il has no reason to claim a role with 3 votes against in the middle of D1!

I mean, she wasn't town, but also it wasn't middle of D1. It was 75% of the way through D1, and for most of the remainder she was gonna be asleep. If you're trying to imagine what town!Illven would do, you could maybe plausibly say she might've waited to claim until she woke up and saw if the wagon was still on her, but that kinda depends on how busy her mornings are. Claiming a little early gives better odds of the wagon being removed, that's something that makes sense regardless of alignment.

[Lady Serpentine]

I don't see how what Snow said is TMI, since she was saying that in response to her earlier confusion, inspired by someone else. Also, that implies she has TMI that you're a wolf, which is a pretty weird statement. Can you elaborate on that?

With regards to the claim, Illven is also a new player, so panic's a thing from either side; Illven had no good reason to claim Crow as wolf either, given that this would be the likeliest outcome. Badger!Illven... Well, maybe she thought that dying was worth revealing Crow, and there's always the chance we'd have picked wrong and she ideally gets in contact with the wolves.

Today I actually have a wolf-lean on Squork. They know Persolus, and so would want him out of the picture as the only one capable of fingering them on grounds of personal cues. They also keep alternating between "I know a lot about these games and am only new to this forum" and "Very rookie mistakes" in a way that's making me think "experienced wolf trying to come across as a newbie because people don't know me here".

They also were trying to fly under the radar in terms of wagons the other day, with some typical wolfish waffling. Which is exactly what they're trying to call people out for. A bold move, but it did draw attention to that, so I'm inclined to say it was a slip on the whole (assuming I'm right about Squork being wolfy, that is).

[AvatarVecna]

I don't see how what Snow said is TMI, since she was saying that in response to her earlier confusion, inspired by someone else. Also, that implies she has TMI that you're a wolf, which is a pretty weird statement. Can you elaborate on that?

With regards to the claim, Illven is also a new player, so panic's a thing from either side; Illven had no good reason to claim Crow as wolf either, given that this would be the likeliest outcome. Badger!Illven... Well, maybe she thought that dying was worth revealing Crow, and there's always the chance we'd have picked wrong and she ideally gets in contact with the wolves.

Today I actually have a wolf-lean on Squork. They know Persolus, and so would want him out of the picture as the only one capable of fingering them on grounds of personal cues. They also keep alternating between "I know a lot about these games and am only new to this forum" and "Very rookie mistakes" in a way that's making me think "experienced wolf trying to come across as a newbie because people don't know me here".

They also were trying to fly under the radar in terms of wagons the other day, with some typical wolfish waffling. Which is exactly what they're trying to call people out for. A bold move, but it did draw attention to that, so I'm inclined to say it was a slip on the whole (assuming I'm right about Squork being wolfy, that is).

SR on Ti now

[Lady Serpentine]

Now, now. Show your work, please.

[AvatarVecna]

Now, now. Show your work, please.

It should be obvious if you think a few seconds. You're either not thinking about it at all or you're obfuscating, and neither is towny.

[Lady Serpentine]

Oh, I'm putting plenty of thought into things. But that's hardly the point - the point is for you to show your reasoning, and thus be firmly comitted to an argument. Or at least it is from my side; I can see why you'd much prefer being able to cherrypick the best arguments against me that I and the rest of the thread can provide with a nice little shield of "I said she was suspicious first and this is totally what I meant all along".

[AvatarVecna]

I scumread snow, I refuse to explain why, but asking me for an explanation is scummy. It's not always true but that's how it shakes out this time, and I'm pretty sure snow and probably blade will understand.

Lady Serpentine

[Lady Serpentine]

So, just to be clear, you're trusting your wolfread to understand why asking why they're a wolf is wolf-sided and agree with that assessment? Somehow, that logic seems a bit dubious.

[AvatarVecna]

So, just to be clear, you're trusting your wolfread to understand why asking why they're a wolf is wolf-sided and agree with that assessment? Somehow, that logic seems a bit dubious.

You're hearing but not listening and I can only assume it's deliberate.

- - - Updated - - -

If snow asks for an explanation I'll consider providing one, but otherwise I'm just gonna keep voting you.

[bladescape]

AV is wrong about Snow and possibly Ti. Haven't thought about Ti.

Xihirli should be voted out.

Snow already tipped on why but she's not confident enough in it to push.

(Hint: Xi knew that it was Badger/Crow cross before anyone else.)

[Zelphas]

Explain the vote?

I know myself in these games well enough to know that I get analysis paralysis and/or too busy right as the Days end, so I don't like making a post without a vote. As a quiet player without any real heat on them at the moment, Book Wombat is far from the best place for my vote to rest at the end of the day once things are more talked through, but they are a safe place for my vote to rest for town; if they become a point of discussion, it's almost certainly because they gave a tell as scum, and so my vote boosts a needed wagon. If they aren't mention, my vote won't be a part of any wagon, and therefore won't get in the way of the rest of town catching a wolf.

That being said, let's see if I can put together some ideas for what I actually think is going on.

Persolus - Dead town, according to AvatarVecna.

bladescape - As cryptic as ever. Possible soft snake claim, though that might just be their gut/deduction skills. Faint townlean, though I admit there's nothing to support this aside from vibes.

Xihirli - Stated at the bottom of page 1 her playstyle, and seems to be following it... which works just as well if she's town as if she's wolf. Null.

AvatarVecna - Counterclaimed Crow. Has been one of the most active players so far, with plenty of information and argument. I'm leery of trusting a contentious flip in this game, when we have no confirmation of kills aside from one person's word. This should be a townlean, but ends up as null due to paranoia.

Ilven - Dead Badger, according to AvatarVecna.

Zelphas - Town, no special roles.

Snowblaze - One of the most active players on the thread, who is currently tunneling on me. I think I always townlean Snowblaze, and that still holds true here.

Book Wombat - Has the same number of posts I had before this one... which is to say, three. Null; not enough information.

JeenLeen - Another one of the active posters, with lots of information in each post. I like information, and what they've posted seems solid. Townlean for the moment.

Cazero - Not a big poster at first, but more posts as time went by; though a lot of it is in response to JeenLeen's question. Slight wolflean, maybe just convinced by others' arguments; shifting my vote here.

Taffimai - Another major poster, giving good ideas and questions. Townlean for the same reason I'm townleaning JeenLeen.

Armonia13 - Still no posts. Null.

Squork - New but seasoned player, which is interesting. Lots of solid analysis (one of which puts me in a bad position, but there's not much I can do about my Day 1 vote at this point). Solid townlean.

LadySerpentine - Doesn't post as often as some (more often than many, myself included), but when they do post, it's nearly always lots of info. Their vote on Squork is mostly extrapolations and suppositions rather than solid facts, but it seems at least thought out. Townlean.


So, that's it from me at the moment, such as it is.

[Squork]

I don't see how what Snow said is TMI, since she was saying that in response to her earlier confusion, inspired by someone else. Also, that implies she has TMI that you're a wolf, which is a pretty weird statement. Can you elaborate on that?

With regards to the claim, Illven is also a new player, so panic's a thing from either side; Illven had no good reason to claim Crow as wolf either, given that this would be the likeliest outcome. Badger!Illven... Well, maybe she thought that dying was worth revealing Crow, and there's always the chance we'd have picked wrong and she ideally gets in contact with the wolves.

Today I actually have a wolf-lean on Squork. They know Persolus, and so would want him out of the picture as the only one capable of fingering them on grounds of personal cues. They also keep alternating between "I know a lot about these games and am only new to this forum" and "Very rookie mistakes" in a way that's making me think "experienced wolf trying to come across as a newbie because people don't know me here".

They also were trying to fly under the radar in terms of wagons the other day, with some typical wolfish waffling. Which is exactly what they're trying to call people out for. A bold move, but it did draw attention to that, so I'm inclined to say it was a slip on the whole (assuming I'm right about Squork being wolfy, that is).

I last played on CDC about a year ago, and it’s a completely different atmosphere there. Different names, different roles (never had a town role that wins with the scum before), and different mechanics. All kills and investigations are revealed at nightfall, unless you’re voted out or killed. Nightfall is a single time rather than a block, and the next day starts right away.

Forgive me if I haven’t had the most fluid of transitions, why do you think I’m taking notes?

- - - Updated - - -

I know myself in these games well enough to know that I get analysis paralysis and/or too busy right as the Days end, so I don't like making a post without a vote. As a quiet player without any real heat on them at the moment, Book Wombat is far from the best place for my vote to rest at the end of the day once things are more talked through, but they are a safe place for my vote to rest for town; if they become a point of discussion, it's almost certainly because they gave a tell as scum, and so my vote boosts a needed wagon. If they aren't mention, my vote won't be a part of any wagon, and therefore won't get in the way of the rest of town catching a wolf.

That being said, let's see if I can put together some ideas for what I actually think is going on.

Persolus - Dead town, according to AvatarVecna.

bladescape - As cryptic as ever. Possible soft snake claim, though that might just be their gut/deduction skills. Faint townlean, though I admit there's nothing to support this aside from vibes.

Xihirli - Stated at the bottom of page 1 her playstyle, and seems to be following it... which works just as well if she's town as if she's wolf. Null.

AvatarVecna - Counterclaimed Crow. Has been one of the most active players so far, with plenty of information and argument. I'm leery of trusting a contentious flip in this game, when we have no confirmation of kills aside from one person's word. This should be a townlean, but ends up as null due to paranoia.

Ilven - Dead Badger, according to AvatarVecna.

Zelphas - Town, no special roles.

Snowblaze - One of the most active players on the thread, who is currently tunneling on me. I think I always townlean Snowblaze, and that still holds true here.

Book Wombat - Has the same number of posts I had before this one... which is to say, three. Null; not enough information.

JeenLeen - Another one of the active posters, with lots of information in each post. I like information, and what they've posted seems solid. Townlean for the moment.

Cazero - Not a big poster at first, but more posts as time went by; though a lot of it is in response to JeenLeen's question. Slight wolflean, maybe just convinced by others' arguments; shifting my vote here.

Taffimai - Another major poster, giving good ideas and questions. Townlean for the same reason I'm townleaning JeenLeen.

Armonia13 - Still no posts. Null.

Squork - New but seasoned player, which is interesting. Lots of solid analysis (one of which puts me in a bad position, but there's not much I can do about my Day 1 vote at this point). Solid townlean.

LadySerpentine - Doesn't post as often as some (more often than many, myself included), but when they do post, it's nearly always lots of info. Their vote on Squork is mostly extrapolations and suppositions rather than solid facts, but it seems at least thought out. Townlean.


So, that's it from me at the moment, such as it is.

This is a very, very safe list and in line with what most people have said so far, so I’m going to ask you to go out on a limb here. What’s your biggest hot take?