Pelor the Burning Hate

[Elenna]

Not sure Requilac's argument is necessarily correct (I personally don't prioritize lynching stronger players D1 when I'm wolf/cult, because that just leads to the same people being D1 lynched every time, which is no fun). However, it was a good thought, and I appreciate the attempt to start some actual analysis. Which is why I find it sketchy that two people immediately voted Requilac after he posted it.

I'm not voting Aleph Null at this point because a) I don't like voting for complete newbies D1 and b) his Requilac vote seems to be at least partly an OMGUS vote, which isn't great but it's probably okay for a D1 like this with no analysis, and in any case OMGUS isn't particularly wolfy imo.

So, Xihirli, care to explain why you decided to move your vote?

- - - Updated - - -

I started writing the above 45 minutes ago, got interrupted by a work call, and got ninja'd with three different posts.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So, I'm leaning town on Requilac - they were comfortably on a two person wagon and didn't need to shake things up, but did anyway. Doesn't seem like a cult/SK play to me.

Today is deadline, so if either of the people up for lynch are a power role... this is probably the time to claim.

@JeenLeen Clarification on the lynch rules would be great, though I assume he won't be online to answer until it's time to lynch.

Still don't have posts from AV or Outsider :(

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Vote Count

Apogee1 (1): Elenna
AvatarVecna (1): Apogee1
Elenna (3): Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark
Requilac (3): Grek, Aleph Null, Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Captain Cap
Aleph Null (1): Requilac


Not Voting:
No Posts: AvatarVecna, The Outsider

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Dang I got ninja'd. Update in a bit.

[Elenna]

Sigh, I don't want to be lynched and I also don't want Requilac lynched. Anyone want to join me on Xihirli? Alternatively, I'm down to switch to AV if anyone else switches. (Probably obvious, but voting AV would be a pure self-preservation vote, I don't have any reason to be suspicious of them.)

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Game wise, AV's vote isn't super ideal with one vote already on AV, but that's AV for you. On an actual serious note, stay safe/warm.

I'll move my vote to Xihirli. Elenna as scum or Cult feels like they would vote Requilac from self preservation so I feel good about her too.

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Vote Count

AvatarVecna (2): Apogee1, AvatarVecna
Elenna (2): Book Wombat, Valmark
Requilac (3): Grek, Aleph Null, Xihirli
Xihirli (3): Captain Cap, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape
Aleph Null (1): Requilac


Not Voting:
No Posts: The Outsider

[Valmark]

I wouldn't mind another lynch if we can get at 4 votes (and thus ensure the lynch) so I'd likely be up to join in on AV's wagon (although it should be noted she's one of her own votes). I'm not particularly sold on anybody so anybody's fine by me (besides the two new ones, of course).

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja'd. One would think Pelor's the god of ninjas.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

For the record I don't have super strong suspicions of anyone, but would rather not vote Elenna/Requilac.

[Valmark]

Right, Xihirli.

[Aleph Null]

For the record I don't have super strong suspicions of anyone, but would rather not vote Elenna/Requilac.

I mean, it's only day 1. For lack of data I really can't pin anyone down yet; I do feel the "don't lynch people who haven't played so they get a chance to play" sentiment so I'm not opposed to basing the day 1 lynch on that.

[Xihirli]

so, xihirli, care to explain why you decided to move your vote?

blood for the blood god

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BUT SERIOUSLY, BECAUSE BOOKWOMBAT DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH votes to die. Caps lock was on, whoops.
Let's get at least a lynch day one, yeah?

[Elenna]

blood for the blood god

- - - Updated - - -

BUT SERIOUSLY, BECAUSE BOOKWOMBAT DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH votes to die. Caps lock was on, whoops.
Let's get at least a lynch day one, yeah?

I don't think there's a minimum number of votes to get a lynch?

[Requilac]

AvatarVecna. Texan, and I got bigger issues than a cult to worry about rn.

After consulting the town crier, it seems that that the Cult of Pelor has used evil magicks to shut down some kind of magic system called an "Electric Grid" in the Kingom of Texas. We had best act quickly, before the followers of Pelor extinguish all of our rushlights and seal off our privy pits.

Also, because I promised I would vote for this person on day one out of vengeance, and also because I don't want to die, I will be switching my vote to Xihirli. My accusation on Aleph Null was a massive stretch anyway.

[Xihirli]

Why would you kill Zarus's most beloved child?
Elf ear pokes out from the tape haphazardly put over it
Curses! My clever human disguise foiled!

[Apogee1]

Aleph Null

:Popcorn:

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obligatory reminder if you are the vig/guard please shoot tonight

obligatory reminder if you are the sk please also shoot tonight but only if you aim for the cults

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I will throw an unabashedly consensus take into the mix that Requillarc is town

I don't think his case on aleph null meant anything ai for null

I think null's reaction may have

[Aleph Null]

Aleph Null

:Popcorn:

----------------

obligatory reminder if you are the vig/guard please shoot tonight

obligatory reminder if you are the sk please also shoot tonight but only if you aim for the cults

----------------

I will throw an unabashedly consensus take into the mix that Requillarc is town

I don't think his case on aleph null meant anything ai for null

I think null's reaction may have

I mean okay, sure, you can find me sticking up for myself suspicious if you want, but I think it's pretty normal. I expect people to react more to a vote with a reason given than a randomly placed vote, and however shoddy his reasoning was it was there.

Unless, of course, you're saying that one has to be a cultist to not want to die, which is hogwash in my opinion.

On the other hand, I do see where people are coming from about Xihirli. Mostly because they haven't mounted a sound defense yet.

[Elenna]

obligatory reminder if you are the vig/guard please shoot tonight

I might be missing something, why do you think vig should shoot tonight?

[Xihirli]

Hm? Uh... I’m pretty.

[Grek]

AvatarVecna

As a fellow Texan, I am honour-bound to destroy him and absorb his power, Highlander-style.

[JeenLeen]

Day 1 Ends

OOC: sorry the post tally is so late. To clarify: if there is a tie, I will use RNG to determine who gets lynched. This is because I'm lazy and don't want to double-check who got the votes first, and aren't sure how to handle it if someone gets the most votes, then loses votes, then gets the most again.

VOTE COUNT (not necessarily in order)
Xihirli: Alpha Null, Requiliac, Valmark, CaoimhimTheCape, Elenna, Captain Cap
Aleph Null: Apogee1
AvatarVecna: AvatarVecna, Grek
Requiliac: Xihirli
Elenna: Book Wombat

No Vote: The Outsider


The villagers gather, armed with what weapons they can find. Accusations flare, and the oft violent Xihirli gets called into question for oft mentioning Zarus.
But, in the end, she is proven innocent. Well, of this.

Xihirli was lynched. She was vanilla town.

Night 1 Begins and will end 2 pm 2/18
Though, given my late Night-start, I may extend this if not everyone has posted Night powers and nothing seems to give away who has Night powers.

[JeenLeen]

Clarify: also, whoever has the most votes gets lynched. No need for 25% or any other minority/majority. If ties for most votes, RNG determines it.

[JeenLeen]

Night 1 Ends

The night passes with a foreboding silence. Nobody is seen out. Perhaps a few hear hushed whispers and sounds of struggle, but they keep it to themselves.

As day breaks, the village gathers to discuss what should be done. Perhaps cooler heads will rule today and avoid further bloodshed... but perhaps not. The sights of Captain Cap and Apogee1 dead in the street are good evidence for action. Sure, some people were happy the busybody would no longer trouble them, but this was perhaps one scenario where his snooping would have helped.

Captain Cap died. He was Town Gossip.
Apogee1 died. He was vanilla town.

Day 2 Begins and Will End Approx. 2 pm on Saturday 2/20


EDIT: QuickTopic is acting funky, at least for me. Having trouble loading pages, but I eventually got it to load and post messages to everyone who needs them. Just took a few tries.

[Elenna]

I find it ironic that Apogee might have been vig-killed after he called for the vig to shoot
Especially since I think it's a mistake for the vig to kill early game unless there's a strong suspect (which I didn't think there was).

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I find it ironic that Apogee might have been vig-killed after he called for the vig to shoot
Especially since I think it's a mistake for the vig to kill early game unless there's a strong suspect (which I didn't think there was).

My guess is that Apogee was the Vig shot, if Vig thought that they were one of the bad guys trying to speed along the game.

So, for the current state of things:

We got:
1 SK

1 Cult Leader
0-1 Cultist

6-7 Town including...
4 VT
1 Guard
1 Elder
1 Healer

But most of those may have been a convert last night.



Gonna look back at the thread and see if I can figure out who would have killed either of them, but no leads are jumping out at me right now.

[Grek]

Spoiler: D1 Voting Image

Show

I concur with the thought that it was probably the Town Guard who killed Apogee1. I'd also like to point out that The Outsider was a total no-show on D1, so in the interest of compelling them to appear, I vote for them to be sacrificed to Pelor next.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Spoiler: Apogee stuff

Show

The great lord RNGes - I mean, Pelor, has told me that Apogee1 is the guilty party.

Random vote on Apogee, not relevant.

That's not very nice I'm going to cast Symbol of Pain on you ... I mean, I am not going to cast such a spell because I am not a follower of an evil deity such as the burning hate hahaha nope.

Anyways AvatarVecna because I want Valmark to vote himself

Is that still a thing?

Apogee votes AV, random vote, ehh.

Aleph Null

obligatory reminder if you are the vig/guard please shoot tonight

obligatory reminder if you are the sk please also shoot tonight but only if you aim for the cults

----------------

I will throw an unabashedly consensus take into the mix that Requillarc is town

I don't think his case on aleph null meant anything ai for null

I think null's reaction may have

I mean okay, sure, you can find me sticking up for myself suspicious if you want, but I think it's pretty normal. I expect people to react more to a vote with a reason given than a randomly placed vote, and however shoddy his reasoning was it was there.

Unless, of course, you're saying that one has to be a cultist to not want to die, which is hogwash in my opinion.

On the other hand, I do see where people are coming from about Xihirli. Mostly because they haven't mounted a sound defense yet.

Hmm. So, minor points toward Requillarc not shooting Apogee. There's the possibility that Aleph (as either role) killed Apogee for the vote but I'm not sure enough on it to jump to any conclusions.

So, only person who has any connection to Apogee was Aleph, really, but assuming he killed Apogee is a stretch.

Spoiler: Captain Cap Stuff

Show

No one voting Xihirli yet? That's strange...

Random votes Xi. Obviously Xi killed Captain Cap in retaliation.

One vote. I mean, there wasn't really much for CC to say. Nobody voted CC either.





@JeenLeen what are the rules for autolynches?



I guess my thoughts on people so far:

Valmark - minor townie points for being talkative Day 1. Of course, that means a possible conversion target.
AvatarVecna - one post, IRL reason for not being here much. null.
The Outsider - no posts.
Aleph Null - I actually feel ok about Aleph? Reading over his posts they don't seem like scum in trouble. Bonus points for being an unlikely convert due to the attention.
Elenna - Got a town vibe after the pressure on her yesterday.
Book Wombat - One post. It was Day 1 but could have been scum happy to let these votes play out.
Requilac - Town lean, as explained Day 1. Possibly convert, but I could also see cult avoiding Requilac for having attention on them yesterday.
Grek - More posts than I expected, ends the day on an AV vote that was not going to affect anything.


Hmmm, going to start by voting Book Wombat. Have a few people I don't want to vote, of the ones I don't mind lynching I'll start here.

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Vote Count:
The Outsider (1): Grek
Book Wombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting: Elenna
No Posts: Valmark, AvatarVecna, The Outsider, Aleph Null, Book Wombat, Requilac

[Aleph Null]

Well, that was interesting.

Now, how much straight-up claiming do I want to do this early in the game, is the question?

I submit that it was the serial killer that killed Captain Cap. Take that as you will.

Sips tea

[Requilac]

Well, that was interesting.

Now, how much straight-up claiming do I want to do this early in the game, is the question?

I submit that it was the serial killer that killed Captain Cap. Take that as you will.

Sips tea

If what Aleph Null says here is true, than he must be the Serial Killer. In night one, the only person who could know who that was the Serial Killer themself. Guard, healer, or vanilla town couldn't figure what role someone was nor who they targeted. Elder could discover who was the Serial Killer, but they would have no way of knowing whether Captain Cap or Apogee was their target. Gossip could tell if someone targeted Captain Cap, but they couldn't tell what power was being used, and there could have been five different powers used on them that night. Priest could have converted the Gossip or Elder and learned one bit of this information, but not enough to confirm that both (a) who the Serial Killer was and (b) that Captain Cap was targeted by that person.

If Aleph Null truly knows this for certain, the only way he reasonably that is if he was the Serial Killer himself. The only other way to know this for certain on Day 2 would be if the Elder targeted the Serial Killer on Night One and the Gossip targeted Captain Cap on the same night and then they both shared this information with each other, which would require so many different things to occur that it would be a miracle.

Getting the Serial Killer lynched isn't as good as getting a cult, but it does give an advantage to the Town. In case the Cult Leader dies the Cult would need the Serial Killer to win, as there wouldn't be any other way for Cult to become greater in number than Town when no conversions are occurring, so if Serial Killer and Cult Leader are both dead and the game hasn't ended then town wins. Let's up our odds.

Now Aleph Null could also just be lying, but there really wouldn't be much advantage in intentionally making oneself seem like the Serial Killer. I guess he could be doing it to take the heat off of a more important role, but if that's the case then worst case scenario is that we lynched a Vanilla Town instead of a Power Role.

- - - Updated - - -

So, for the current state of things:

We got:
1 SK

1 Cult Leader
0-1 Cultist

6-7 Town including...
4 VT
1 Guard
1 Elder
1 Healer

It's got to be pretty safe to assume that there is another cultist in the field. The only way for there to not be another Cultist is if the Cult Leader tried to accidentally convert the the Serial Killer, which had a 9% (1/11) chance of occurring on that Night.

[Aleph Null]

If what Aleph Null says here is true, than he must be the Serial Killer. In night one, the only person who could know who that was the Serial Killer themself. Guard, healer, or vanilla town couldn't figure what role someone was nor who they targeted. Elder could discover who was the Serial Killer, but they would have no way of knowing whether Captain Cap or Apogee was their target. Gossip could tell if someone targeted Captain Cap, but they couldn't tell what power was being used, and there could have been five different powers used on them that night. Priest could have converted the Gossip or Elder and learned one bit of this information, but not enough to confirm that both (a) who the Serial Killer was and (b) that Captain Cap was targeted by that person.

If Aleph Null truly knows this for certain, the only way he reasonably that is if he was the Serial Killer himself. The only other way to know this for certain on Day 2 would be if the Elder targeted the Serial Killer on Night One and the Gossip targeted Captain Cap on the same night and then they both shared this information with each other, which would require so many different things to occur that it would be a miracle.

Getting the Serial Killer lynched isn't as good as getting a cult, but it does give an advantage to the Town. In case the Cult Leader dies the Cult would need the Serial Killer to win, as there wouldn't be any other way for Cult to become greater in number than Town when no conversions are occurring, so if Serial Killer and Cult Leader are both dead and the game hasn't ended then town wins. Let's up our odds.

Now Aleph Null could also just be lying, but there really wouldn't be much advantage in intentionally making oneself seem like the Serial Killer. I guess he could be doing it to take the heat off of a more important role, but if that's the case then worst case scenario is that we lynched a Vanilla Town instead of a Power Role.

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It's got to be pretty safe to assume that there is another cultist in the field. The only way for there to not be another Cultist is if the Cult Leader tried to accidentally convert the the Serial Killer, which had a 9% (1/11) chance of occurring on that Night.

You're forgetting a possibility, which is that I am the vigilante, and know that therefore the SK killed cap by process of elimination.
Requilac, you have been suspicious to me since day 1, but your response here confirms your affiliation in my book.

[Elenna]

It's got to be pretty safe to assume that there is another cultist in the field. The only way for there to not be another Cultist is if the Cult Leader tried to accidentally convert the the Serial Killer, which had a 9% (1/11) chance of occurring on that Night.

They could also have tried to convert whoever the Healer protected.
Or they could have tried to convert Apogee or Captain Cap - IDK if the role reveal would include that.

But yeah, probably safer to assume there's two cultists.

@JeenLeen: are autolynches happening?

[Grek]

It's got to be pretty safe to assume that there is another cultist in the field. The only way for there to not be another Cultist is if the Cult Leader tried to accidentally convert the the Serial Killer, which had a 9% (1/11) chance of occurring on that Night.

I think the more relevant figure is that based on what we know, there's eight people the Cult Leader could have attempted to convert (12 players minus three dead ones and the CL themselves) and eight that the Healer could have protected (12 players minus one that was already dead, two that died and the Healer themselves). Out of these there's eight pairings which involve the SK (who couldn't be converted) and six matches which involve the CL's target getting blocked. Subtract one for the case where the SK got targeted by the CL and the Healer somehow and you have a 13/81 = 16% chance for the current ratio to be 7:1:1 vs. a 84% chance for the ratio to be 6:2:1. That's nearly double the odds.

You're forgetting a possibility, which is that I am the vigilante, and know that therefore the SK killed cap by process of elimination.
Requilac, you have been suspicious to me since day 1, but your response here confirms your affiliation in my book.

...are you role claiming as the Town Guard, then? If so, could you explain why you decided to kill Apogee1? I have some thoughts on what I would do if I were a vigilante in this game, but I'd like to hear your reasoning before sharing.

[Aleph Null]

I think the more relevant figure is that based on what we know, there's eight people the Cult Leader could have attempted to convert (12 players minus three dead ones and the CL themselves) and eight that the Healer could have protected (12 players minus one that was already dead, two that died and the Healer themselves). Out of these there's eight pairings which involve the SK (who couldn't be converted) and six matches which involve the CL's target getting blocked. Subtract one for the case where the SK got targeted by the CL and the Healer somehow and you have a 13/81 = 16% chance for the current ratio to be 7:1:1 vs. a 84% chance for the ratio to be 6:2:1. That's nearly double the odds.

...are you role claiming as the Town Guard, then? If so, could you explain why you decided to kill Apogee1? I have some thoughts on what I would do if I were a vigilante in this game, but I'd like to hear your reasoning before sharing.

Well, because he told me to kill someone. I hadn't been planning on it, but he accused me and then said that, so I thought it would be thematically pleasing and also because I thought his behavior was a tad scummy.

EDIT: Yes, that is my claim