Smugglers & Scallywags

[Elenna]

Some observations:

I said D3 that I thought Book Wombat was trustworthy because scum generally doesn't fake-claim baner due to the high chance of a counterclaim. But in retrospect, that doesn't make any sense for a cult game, because BW could be the actual baner who was recruited N2. Or, less likely, BW could be the original cultist who converted the actual baner and is now claiming baner instead of them for... some reason.

That being said, IMO, Book Wombat didn't look like a very attractive conversion target N2, so it seems unlikely that cult would have targeted them. And I don't understand why cultists would have someone fake-claim baner when the actual baner could just claim instead. So for now, I'm going to assume BW was town up until end of N3. I'm not going to assume they're trustworthy now, because they could have been converted and lied about baning themselves last night.

JeenLeen was almost certainly town on D2 due to getting Xihirli lynched. If we assume BW was town on D3, and was therefore telling the truth, then JL was also town until end of N3. As I said before, I think it's unlikely but not impossible that one of BW and JL was converted last night.

We currently have no way of knowing if the other mason was town at the start or whether they've been converted since.

If the other mason is still town

I still think this logic

My buddy did some analysis in our QuickTopic I haven't had the time to fully process, but it wound up with that either Cao, Libro, or Valmark would be the original cultist. This assumes that both he and I are true seers, and that I wasn't scum sacrificing Xi D2 for towncred.
Since Valmark got cleared, I'll go with Libro.

is incorrect, since it assumes that Xi wasn't the original cultist, but we have no evidence of that. Given that, I'll be focusing on finding the N1 convert, not the original cultist. As far as I can tell, all the people who could be original cultists could also be N1 converts.

That being said, in the case where the other mason is town, it doesn't actually matter. If Xi was the original cultist, then the possible candidates for N1 conversion are the above (Cao and Libro, since Valmark was cleared) plus the N1 scries (Outsider and Xi) since we don't know if scries come before or after conversions. But Outsider was re-cleared last night, and obviously Xi could not be the N1 conversion if she was the original cultist. So even if Xi was the original cultist, if we trust last night's scry on Outsider then it's still a choice between voting Cao and Libro.

If the other mason is now a cultist
At the very least, the Outsider scry from last night cannot be trusted in this case. So we need to consider the possibility that Xi was the original cultist and she converted Outsider on N1 (after the scry).

Beyond that, this possibility makes Caerulea more suspect since the scry on her isn't completely trustworthy. I guess it's possible Caerulea and the other mason could be the N1 and N2 converts, so technically Caerulea is an option for N1...

Conclusion
The possible original or N1 cultists are Caoimhin, Libro, Outsider if you assume the other mason is lying, maybe Caerulea, maybe Valmark is JL has been converted and is lying about their power usage last night.
The latter two seem unlikely, so I'm going to vote somewhere in the set {Caoimhin, Libro, Outsider}. I'll try to find some time to look for evidence tomorrow, but right now I don't really have a preference between them. Libro has been the least talkative and helpful, though.

[Grand Arbiter]

Libro-I’m a townie. I ain’t vanilla but that’s all you get for day 3

Seems like time to let y’all in on the secret; this port of ours isn’t a one-baner town. Two have been in service from the start with a mason connection, myself and Book Wombat.

While college work has actually been a factor in my silence, I embraced low participation since your suspicion made it unlikely for the cult to try to convert me. Why try to add a member to their ranks who is likely to die the next day? Thus I’ve been free to bane anyone the past two nights.

Assuming I understand everyone’s logic, CaoimhinTheCape is who we should be lynching today instead of myself.

[JeenLeen]

I want to wait to hear confirmation from Book Wombat before potentially switching my vote, but that sounds feasible.

Although it's also possible Libro is cultist, Book Wombat was converted N2, and they know they win tonight if we don't kill one of them.

- - - Updated - - -

Yo, The Outsider, you hinted you have a power. Anything useful to add?

- - - Updated - - -

Also, Libro, who did you bane each night?
Be good to know who we can trust more than less.

Watcher/trackers: if you exist, don't say anything if you saw Libro do anything until he says something first.

[Grand Arbiter]

Thus far I have alternated between baning Book Wombat and you, as I’m unable to bane the same target 2x in a row.

[JeenLeen]

Thus far I have alternated between baning Book Wombat and you, as I’m unable to bane the same target 2x in a row.

So, assuming you're honest, I'm confirmed Town and Book Wombat is confirmed Town.
Assuming I'm Town and assumptions about my power, Valmark is confirmed Town.

I definitely like your story and the conclusion it yields. I also think it's reasonable there's mason-pairs of other powers, and that makes me even more believe that my buddy is a true seer as well and was not the original cultist who's been playing me the whole Town. But I admit he definitely could be a cultist by now. On the other hand, your story is a very believable and very possible cult story if you are the original cultist and converted Book Wombat N2.

On a 'third' hand, two baners makes me really hope the cult failed a conversion at least once. I hope to do a re-do of my counts/lists shortly (whether in a few minutes or hours, not sure.)

[Book Wombat]

Ye, I lied a bit about my role so it would seem as if I could bane the same person even though it was me and Libro. Last night I didn't bane myself as Libro was going to do it (Elena was half-right).
My true banes are in order Libro, JeenLeen and Elena.
Voting CaoimhimTheCape.

My (hopefully) true role:

You are a townie, the switch baner. Every night, select one player: that player is either baned that night (immune to all other powers), or is daybaned the next day (and is immune to the lynch). You cannot target the same person two days in a row.

[JeenLeen]

EDIT TO FIRST SENTENCE: if you're honest, you're also Town. Also, I doubt a wolf!baner would have baned me last Night, when you could instead be protecting a cult-buddy from being read as scum. Watcher/trackers: y'all got anything to confirm/deny?

- - - Updated - - -

EDIT: was ninja'd by BW, but good to see the confirmation. And that Elenna is likely trustworthy. Will contemplate more later.

Cao, got anything to share?

[Book Wombat]

EDIT TO FIRST SENTENCE: if you're honest, you're also Town. Also, I doubt a wolf!baner would have baned me last Night, when you could instead be protecting a cult-buddy from being read as scum. Watcher/trackers: y'all got anything to confirm/deny?

I don't think anyone baned you last night, me and Libro were both on "cooldown".

[Valmark]

EDIT: was ninja'd by BW, but good to see the confirmation. And that Elenna is likely trustworthy. Will contemplate more later.

Cao, got anything to share?

Turns out I was wrong- I thought Caoimhin was your buddy and this was all a plot, but it seems weird that you'd ask him if he had stuff to share.
I'll unvote Libro for now, but I'd rather see first what Caoimhin says.

[JeenLeen]

I don't think anyone baned you last night, me and Libro were both on "cooldown".

Right. I misread that, but get it now. So hope y'all still trust me.


ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE BELOW
I'm a true seer
Scries detect conversions the night-of
Libro and Book Wombat Town
My buddy not trustworthy (as fool or convert)


N1 = scried Xihirli, Libro/Book Wombat baned
N2 = scried Elenna, JeenLeen/Book Wombat baned
N3 = scried Valmark, Elenna/Book Wombat baned
SO
Book Wombat = town as baned
Caerulea = NO trusted SCRY
CaoimhinTheCape = NO SCRY
Captain Cap = confirmed town via death
Elenna = town (confirmed by scry, then baned)
JeenLeen = esentially town. Killed Xi D2, and baned N2. I at least know was not converted.
Libro = NO SCRY but assuming not converted (reasonable as so quiet) and BW vetting him
PartyOfRouges = confirmed town via death
The Outsider = NO trusted SCRY
Valmark = confirmed town via scry last night
Xihirli = scried as scum N1, killed D2 and confirmed cult

So, by this, the original cultists can be
Caerulea, CaoimhimTheCape, Xihirli, or The Outsider. (Recall one of the assumptions is that Libro started Town, though, but we can believe that unless the cult got Book Wombat N2.)

[Valmark]

On N2 when Book baned Jeen and Libro had already baned Book who did Libro target?

I'm assuming Libro baned Book on N1 since Jeen being a Seer wasn't known yet.

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I don't think anyone baned you last night, me and Libro were both on "cooldown".

Also, if you baned Jeen on N2 why was Libro in cooldown? Did you bane the same target twice?

- - - Updated - - -

Right let me put the vote back on Libro until that is explained.

[Book Wombat]

Read my role carefully, I'm assuming me and Libro have the same role if they aren't lying. Libro daybaned JeenLeen on Night 2, I'm not sure why but according to them they...

I yolo’d and day-baned JeenLeen

EDIT: Unless they were cult from the beginning I'm inclined to think they're telling the truth. Entirely possible that cult has a voider but I dunno.

[Valmark]

Read my role carefully, I'm assuming me and Libro have the same role if they aren't lying. Libro daybaned JeenLeen on Night 2, I'm not sure why but according to them they...

Uh alright, they were both baned and day-baned. Makes sense.

[Book Wombat]

...
N1 = scried Xihirli, Libro/Book Wombat baned
N2 = scried Elenna, JeenLeen/Book Wombat baned
N3 = scried Valmark, Elenna/Book Wombat baned
...

It should be
N1 = scried Xihirli, Libro/Book Wombat baned
N2 = scried Elenna, JeenLeen day/baned
N3 = scried Valmark, Elenna/Book Wombat baned

This means I could've been converted N2 and am lying about baning Elenna.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Cao, got anything to share?

Funny if you got the wolves that paranoid! Cao = mason

JEEN

I also wanna comment on jeen's posts on their own. Sure they look townie, but there are other options too.

Might be a townsperson looking to get something going today. Another option is that jeen is a wolf with someone in trouble. Something weird about jeen's vote tally in post #24 with the "two main wagons" not mentioning captain cap being a close wagon too. Only was one vote less than the others (3 v 3 v 2) until jeen's vote made it 4v3v2. Not necessarily a wolf tell but there might be a connection between jeen and captain cap.

Basically, i wanted to put out the idea that jeen could be protecting a buddy with that vote. Ultimately doesn't change anything right now but gonna keep it in mind. Don't know what to make of the unvote either. Don't plan on changing my own vote right now. Yeah, i'm not on either of the two "main wagons" but those might get shaken up as we get closer to deadline anyway.

Or, for easier reading JEEN Is Mason Buddy




So. Yeah, I'm the other Seer.

Gotta figure out what the paired Baners mean. Conversion wise, I wouldn't expect either of them to be targeted. Their powers seem to have some limits that make sense (can't target someone two nights in a row) but it also feels weird that you either both protect someone at night, or both during the day.

That was my logic from last night that the only people not checked were myself, Jeen, and BW (who Jeen and I assumed were clean) and Valmark/Libro. Assuming both of us were true Seers, Valmark or Libro were the only choices for either the Original cultist or the N1 convert.





Given that role claim, I'm now doubtful that Jeen and I are both true seers. Easiest solution is that one is a Fool who always gets the wrong answer and the other is a true Seer. So maybe my investigations of Caerulea and Outsider weren't accurate? Or maybe I'm a Fool who gets random results and one is accurate but the other isn't?


I... don't know that I actually want to put down a vote on Libro right now. Need to reread and figure out my vote.

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Vote Count:

Libro (2): JeenLeen, Elenna,
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Libro, Book Wombat

Not Voting (2): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark, The Outsider, Libro

[JeenLeen]

Turns out I was wrong- I thought Caoimhin was your buddy and this was all a plot, but it seems weird that you'd ask him if he had stuff to share.
I'll unvote Libro for now, but I'd rather see first what Caoimhin says.

Eh... I was gonna let him decide and talk first, but I see he's going to have to publicly claim.
Cao's my buddy.

Here's our proof, in case the other one got killed by the mafia.

Funny if you got the wolves that paranoid! Cao = mason

JEEN

I also wanna comment on jeen's posts on their own. Sure they look townie, but there are other options too.

Might be a townsperson looking to get something going today. Another option is that jeen is a wolf with someone in trouble. Something weird about jeen's vote tally in post #24 with the "two main wagons" not mentioning captain cap being a close wagon too. Only was one vote less than the others (3 v 3 v 2) until jeen's vote made it 4v3v2. Not necessarily a wolf tell but there might be a connection between jeen and captain cap.

Basically, i wanted to put out the idea that jeen could be protecting a buddy with that vote. Ultimately doesn't change anything right now but gonna keep it in mind. Don't know what to make of the unvote either. Don't plan on changing my own vote right now. Yeah, i'm not on either of the two "main wagons" but those might get shaken up as we get closer to deadline anyway.

The starting capital letters in the first big paragraph spell MASON. For the second, BUDDY.
Cao was a lot more clever than me in putting a hint. I just figured nobody would quote my joke-post.

I've been stubbornly going with the assumption that I can trust him, but I think he's gotta make his defense to more than just me now.


Some thoughts
If Cao is still Town, me outting him is probably a bad idea, but the cult can likely deduce who my buddy is based on who is not cult and what I've posted. So I don't think I'm greatly increasing the likelihood of Town!Cao getting converted tonight, if he lives to tonight.

Also, if we kill Libro (and Libro flips vanilla cult), we know Book Wombat is cult. Though maybe at that stage we lose anyway since we can't lynch faster than they can convert.
Though it is possible Libro is cult and Book Wombat not cult.

...actually, if the baners ARE cult, haven't we lost anyway? Can anyone think of a way we can win if the baners are cult, in a game without a voider or vigilante?

In other words, I feel like either Libro or Cao must be cult. If Libro is cult, Book Wombat is probably cult. And if Book Wombat and Libro are cult, we lose. So... does that mean Cao is cult, since otherwise the game would essentially be over?
(Side, not-that-important conclusion: the original cultist was probably Xi. I figure it's reasonable we had a seer-pair and baner-pair. Though it could have been The Outsider. But I also doubt the cultist was one of the main wagons D1 or they would have done more to survive, so The Outsider was probably town D1.)

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja Note: I KEEP MAKING POSTS RIGHT WHILE SOMEONE ELSE MAKES RELEVANT POSTS!
I'll read Cao's response, and respond to it, later.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Also, if we kill Libro (and Libro flips vanilla cult), we know Book Wombat is cult. Though maybe at that stage we lose anyway since we can't lynch faster than they can convert.
Though it is possible Libro is cult and Book Wombat not cult.

...actually, if the baners ARE cult, haven't we lost anyway? Can anyone think of a way we can win if the baners are cult, in a game without a voider or vigilante?

In other words, I feel like either Libro or Cao must be cult. If Libro is cult, Book Wombat is probably cult. And if Book Wombat and Libro are cult, we lose. So... does that mean Cao is cult, since otherwise the game would essentially be over?
(Side, not-that-important conclusion: the original cultist was probably Xi. I figure it's reasonable we had a seer-pair and baner-pair. Though it could have been The Outsider. But I also doubt the cultist was one of the main wagons D1 or they would have done more to survive, so The Outsider was probably town D1.)

I agree that if Libro/BW is cult, the other is already Cult or will be Cult soon. One could have been converted and not had a chance to get the other yet (possibly, need to look back at when they used night powers).

If both baners are already Cult, then we've lost, unless Outsider has a power that would help.

I very much disagree that Libro and I are the only options. That doesn't take into account that either of us could be a Fool (myself who has gotten innocent every night) or you're a Fool (whose power is unreliable).

I probably won't have time to get my thoughts together and make a longer post till around 12 hours from now, but I don't like the suggestion that it has to be one or the other. You're cutting out way too many possibilities.

[Valmark]

Well, good to know the obvious proof was obvious- the only one who was online when you got your buddy's response was Caoimhin so I figured he was your buddy and went on Libro. Not that it matters now.


Aaaand... Uh. Uhm. I have no idea what to vote then. I'd really like to trust all four of you, but that can't be right? Caerulea, Elenna, Outsider and me were all scried as Town from N2 and N3 so someone must have been a cultist among Libro, Caoimhin, Jeen and Book on D2. Correct?

Yes, Jeen can be discarded since there was no need to bus Xihirli at the time.

- - - Updated - - -

And I'm discarding the idea that we have a Fool. Seems to me like AV made two pairs of equal masons, though that could be fooling us.

[JeenLeen]

I do see the possibility that cultists The Outsider and Caerulea are playing it quiet as we Town tear each other apart and tell them everything.

Caerulea seems to have ghosted, but she might be playing it quiet since getting converted. I really want to hear from The Outsider. Also it's possible just one of the baners has been converted thus far, and it's The Outsider/a baner or Caerulea/a baner.
I do lean strongly that Caerulea wasn't converted until after Xi died, though, based on how strongly she defended Xi. Be too risky for a scumbuddy.

So, yeah, there are more options as Cao is stating. But it seems more likely that it's Libro or Cao amongst the cult.

[Elenna]

Huh, gonna have to go through this and redo my logic after work. I do think Libro's telling the truth about being a second baner, though - makes sense to have a backup baner since they're the main thing stopping cult from automatically winning. And it seems unlikely that cult would convert Libro before this.

Switching to Caerulea, then, because I think now it's just Outsider and Caerulea that could have been Xi's buddy on D2? And Caerulea has been less active. Which would also imply that Caoimhin is either a fool or a lying cultist, I think, although I want to double check that I'm not missing any possibilities.

Well, good to know the obvious proof was obvious- the only one who was online when you got your buddy's response was Caoimhin so I figured he was your buddy and went on Libro. Not that it matters now.

I don't really like to base things on online status in general, since some people might have their accounts set to not show when they're online.
That being said, I also suspected by last night that it was Caoimhin, just from process of elimination. It was clear from what JL said that they hadn't scried each other, which eliminated all the living players except Valmark, Libro, and Caoimhin. JeenLeen had accused both Valmark and Libro, so it was most likely Caoimhin.
JL's first post today, where they said "Caoimhin, Libro, and Valmark were possible suspects and I scried Valmark so I'm voting Libro" made me completely sure.

[JeenLeen]

Aaaand... Uh. Uhm. I have no idea what to vote then. I'd really like to trust all four of you, but that can't be right? Caerulea, Elenna, Outsider and me were all scried as Town from N2 and N3 so someone must have been a cultist among Libro, Caoimhin, Jeen and Book on D2. Correct?

Yes, Jeen can be discarded since there was no need to bus Xihirli at the time.

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And I'm discarding the idea that we have a Fool. Seems to me like AV made two pairs of equal masons, though that could be fooling us.

Discarding the fool option, yes. Or, I think so.
Alternatively, it is possible (unlikely, but possible) there's 1 cultist if they got really unlucky hitting baned and Captain Cap. But I think we should assume otherwise.

Huh, gonna have to go through this and redo my logic after work. I do think Libro's telling the truth about being a second baner, though - makes sense to have a backup baner since they're the main thing stopping cult from automatically winning. And it seems unlikely that cult would convert Libro before this.

Switching to Caerulea, then, because I think now it's just Outsider and Caerulea that could have been Xi's buddy on D2? And Caerulea has been less active. Which would also imply that Caoimhin is either a fool or a lying cultist, I think, although I want to double check that I'm not missing any possibilities.

I feel like there's something to tease out between Elenna voting a third party, and that Book Wombat said Elenna was baned. Like, it increases my thought that Elenna is Town (since otherwise she'd jump on the non-cultist wagon), which makes me think Book Wombat is Town (since baned her), which makes me think Libro is Town.

Another bad thing towards Cao is that, in our QuickTopic, he suggested waiting to act on our scry results (during D2) until we had a better sense of which one of us was a fool. That sounded safe when we assumed a mafia. But looking back and knowing it's a cult, doing so would have delayed us a day figuring out it's a cult game. And that would've been really good for cult.

So, although I acknowledge there are other alternatives... Sorry, bud. CaoimhinTheCape

[Grand Arbiter]

Spoiler: Bit of my own logic, seems to get same results as Elenna atm

Show

Assuming our two sets of masons are unconverted thus far, through w/e means, we can cross out the following individuals for today:

Book Wombat baner
CaoimhinTheCape seer
Captain Cap dead wildcard
JeenLeen seer
Libro baner
PartyOfRouges dead villager
Xihirli dead cult

That leaves four people
•Caerulea
•The Outsider
•Valmark
•Elenna

Elenna/Valmark seem to be town atm, so that leaves Caerulea/The Outsider.

I'll toss a vote on The Outsider since Elenna is poking Caerulea atm. When they've spoken up the decision between them will be easier.

I don't really like to base things on online status in general, since some people might have their accounts set to not show when they're online.

I can support this ^.

I frequently read the forums while offline. I login to post when I have the time to compose my thoughts, sometimes copy-pasting from a blank file where I've already typed/edited my work.

[Valmark]

Well, one out of the four masons must be a cultist, so let's vote CaoimhinTheCape. I'd rather keep the double baners alive.

[Grand Arbiter]

I swear everyone in this thread has class levels in ninja @_@

[Valmark]

Spoiler: Bit of my own logic, seems to get same results as Elenna atm

Show

Assuming our two sets of masons are unconverted thus far, through w/e means, we can cross out the following individuals for today:

Book Wombat baner
CaoimhinTheCape seer
Captain Cap dead wildcard
JeenLeen seer
Libro baner
PartyOfRouges dead villager
Xihirli dead cult

That leaves four people
•Caerulea
•The Outsider
•Valmark
•Elenna

Elenna/Valmark seem to be town atm, so that leaves Caerulea/The Outsider.

I'll toss a vote on The Outsider since Elenna is poking Caerulea atm. When they've spoken up the decision between them will be easier.


I can support this ^.

I frequently read the forums while offline. I login to post when I have the time to compose my thoughts, sometimes copy-pasting from a blank file where I've already typed/edited my work.

Note that the four masons cannot be all unconverted.

Caerulea, Elenna, TheOutsider and myself were scried as Town on D3 and D4- this means that alongside with Xi on D2 there must have been a cultist out of Jeen, Caoimhin, Book and you or we'd have won.

[JeenLeen]

I'm trying to do a possibility tree to see what combinations of cultists seem likely. E.g., is it more likely Cao and Caerluea are cult or more likely The Outsider and Caerulea.
It's not really going well, but in the spoiler is what I got so far.

Spoiler: stuff I tried starting to write but not finished good

Show

At most, there are 3 wolves.

Valmark is not a wolf.
JeenLeen is not a wolf.
Elenna, if converted, was converted last night.
Cao, as a mason-pair, was not the original cultist.
I believe there's a baner-pair, like we had a seer-pair. So assume Libro/Book Wombat are not the original cultists.
The baners are mostly honest about who they baned. Assuming this because we could have a quiet tracker, and that's a risk I doubt they'd take.

POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS (assuming the wolves haven't played great distancing and WIFOM tactics)
D1 Possible Cultists: The Outsider, Caerulea, Xihirli
N1 Possible Converts: Cao, Caerulea, The Outsider, Xihirli
N1 Targets who would fail to get converted: Libro, BookWombat, Captain Cap
JeenLeen confirmed not converted since got Xi killed
D2 Known Cultist: Xihirli
D2 Possible Other Cultists: The Outsider, Caerulea, Cao
Xi killed
N2 Possible Converts: Cao, Caerulea*, The Outsider, Libro, Book Wombat
N2 Targets who would fail to get converted: JeenLeen, Captain Cap
I think it's highly possible they tried for Captain Cap, unless they thought he had too much towncred, but let's assume otherwise

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Note that the four masons cannot be all unconverted.

Caerulea, Elenna, TheOutsider and myself were scried as Town on D3 and D4- this means that alongside with Xi on D2 there must have been a cultist out of Jeen, Caoimhin, Book and you or we'd have won.

That... sounds right.
If Cao was converted N1 -- and if he is a cult, I think it's likely Xi was the original and Cao converted N1 -- then his scries aren't untrustworthy. I doubt he would have risked lying about who he targeted, though, since there could have been a watcher/tracker. So, actually, if Cao flips scum, I think it's likely the cult went for someone he targeted. That is, The Outsider or Caerulea.

So it's possible we know who the cult probably is if Cao flips scum.

To be clear: Valmark, by your reasoning, are you saying that Day 2 the cult must have contained one of the 4 masons?
I think the masons said they baned themselves D1, and me getting Xi killed basically confirms I was Town... so that leaves Cao.

[Valmark]

I forgot that the masons cannot have been Cultists right off the bat!

CaoimhinTheCape is the only one that could have been the cultist. A Jeen cultist hadn't a reason to bus Xihirli at the time and there is no reason to think that the baners didn't bane each other N1.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm trying to do a possibility tree to see what combinations of cultists seem likely. E.g., is it more likely Cao and Caerluea are cult or more likely The Outsider and Caerulea.
It's not really going well, but in the spoiler is what I got so far.

Spoiler: stuff I tried starting to write but not finished good

Show

At most, there are 3 wolves.

Valmark is not a wolf.
JeenLeen is not a wolf.
Elenna, if converted, was converted last night.
Cao, as a mason-pair, was not the original cultist.
I believe there's a baner-pair, like we had a seer-pair. So assume Libro/Book Wombat are not the original cultists.
The baners are mostly honest about who they baned. Assuming this because we could have a quiet tracker, and that's a risk I doubt they'd take.

POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS (assuming the wolves haven't played great distancing and WIFOM tactics)
D1 Possible Cultists: The Outsider, Caerulea, Xihirli
N1 Possible Converts: Cao, Caerulea, The Outsider, Xihirli
N1 Targets who would fail to get converted: Libro, BookWombat, Captain Cap
JeenLeen confirmed not converted since got Xi killed
D2 Known Cultist: Xihirli
D2 Possible Other Cultists: The Outsider, Caerulea, Cao
Xi killed
N2 Possible Converts: Cao, Caerulea*, The Outsider, Libro, Book Wombat
N2 Targets who would fail to get converted: JeenLeen, Captain Cap
I think it's highly possible they tried for Captain Cap, unless they thought he had too much towncred, but let's assume otherwise

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That... sounds right.
If Cao was converted N1 -- and if he is a cult, I think it's likely Xi was the original and Cao converted N1 -- then his scries aren't untrustworthy. I doubt he would have risked lying about who he targeted, though, since there could have been a watcher/tracker. So, actually, if Cao flips scum, I think it's likely the cult went for someone he targeted. That is, The Outsider or Caerulea.

So it's possible we know who the cult probably is if Cao flips scum.

To be clear: Valmark, by your reasoning, are you saying that Day 2 the cult must have contained one of the 4 masons?
I think the masons said they baned themselves D1, and me getting Xi killed basically confirms I was Town... so that leaves Cao.

Yes and ninja'd.

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@AvatarVecna: Can you say wether a powered role loses their power when they become a cultist?

[JeenLeen]

Since I'm quite sure Valmark is town -- e.g., I believe my scry would have read him as scum if he were converted -- I guess I'm sticking with Cao as a N1 convert.
If Cao flips wolf, I'll read through our QuickTopic to get a sense of who he recommended I look at, as those are probably not fellow cultists (at least as of the day before).

Also, I think we should privately think about what the best move for the baners is for the rest of the game. But discussing it openly is probably too dangerous unless there's some solution that guarantees a Town victory. In other words, we should probably wait until Night to talk about it, and only talk about it then if you think you have a 'game-win' scenario. (Though I definitely respect the desire to discuss it openly, for both fun and to check if there's gap in a 'game-win' scenario.)

As another thought: if the cult does have 3 members, they win if we mislynch today and they successfully convert anyone tonight. They'd control the vote. I still think we should assume 3 cultists for now, but that Cao didn't lie that he read a townie as scum makes me think they don't have enough members to control the vote if we mislynch.
So maybe we're not as bad off as we think.
...and now my toddler is tearing apart my office, so I shall puase my ruminations on this.

[Valmark]

@AvatarVecna: Can you say wether a powered role loses their power when they become a cultist?

Also, if someone Day-Baned gets lynched, is the lynch wasted or does it fall on the second in line?

[Grand Arbiter]

Ok, so if I understand correctly, the plan is now to test CaoimhinTheCape since it can't be the other known masons.

there is no reason to think that the baners didn't bane each other N1

We indeed covered ourselves.