[WW/Mafia] Prison Escape IC

[Unavenger]

@unavenger, @Caerulea, your only contribution so far has been an RNG vote. Do you think the wolves would be more or less likely to use RNG as a smokescreen for their votes? Why, or why not?

Honestly, no clue. But I have no info, so apart from poking (and I'm keeping my vote on f_f to poke I think) there's nothing I can do other than hit up RNGsus. Sure, I think we should be suspicious if people start going "Oops, RNGsus says I should vote for this same person as the last three people did!" but... *Shrug*.

[Xihirli]

I'll go with unavenger, since I don't think he has any votes on him yet and I don't want to build a wagon.

This sounds a lot like "I want to be inconspicuous" to me. I'm switching to flyinglemur, but I may have to pick a wagon in a bit.

[DeTess]

This sounds a lot like "I want to be inconspicuous" to me.

I mean, that's almost literally what they said. It feels to blatant to be a wolf though, unless its a really inexperienced one. Is Flyinglemur a regular here?

[Unavenger]

I mean, that's almost literally what they said. It feels to blatant to be a wolf though, unless its a really inexperienced one. Is Flyinglemur a regular here?

It's also possible that it's a jester (win-if-lynched neutral), if they are being blatant. But I just read it as "We don't have evidence and I'd rather poke people than actually risk lynching anyone." TBH it feels like everyone's playing mindgames I'm not familiar with.

[Caerulea]

@unavenger, @Caerulea, your only contribution so far has been an RNG vote. Do you think the wolves would be more or less likely to use RNG as a smokescreen for their votes? Why, or why not?
…
Anyway, I'm going to put a vote on Caerulea. The inclusion of the actual proof for them using RNG feels a bit off to me. This vote is not set in stone though.

About the wolves using rng as a smokescreen, well, I don't know. Perhaps? I suppose they could choose anyone and try and build a wagon. I included a screen capture because that's just how I do things.
Anyway, I don't belive that Justicar has any votes for them, and they haven't voted.

TBH it feels like everyone's playing mindgames I'm not familiar with.

I very much agree. To everyone, I've played 2 games so far, so don't read to much into votes / what I say.

[JeenLeen]

Regarding mind games, new players, and voting harmlessly: this is my second game, and last game I thought it made a lot of sense for a Town to vote innocuously when they had no strong evidence towards anybody. That -- and stating that was my intention -- led to my death by a soldier-type (e.g., a Town that has a night kill power. Armed Rioter, in this game.).

I still think it makes sense for Town to say "I don't have good evidence, so I'll vote for somebody with 0 votes in hopes I don't draw attention to myself for inaction or for causing a lynch", but that seems to be considered Wolf action. I kinda get why, as it makes senses wolves would want to avoid attention, but at the same time it seems a completely logical Town action to me, especially Day 1 and possibly Day 2.

Thus, I'm going with the light evidence I currently have instead of trying to vote harmlessly. I could see switching which of the RNGers I voted for, but feel comfortable enough where I am right now. (Plus I'm a bit busy and forgot who has 2 votes and who doesn't, and don't feel like counting it up again.)

[DeTess]

Regarding mind games, new players, and voting harmlessly: this is my second game, and last game I thought it made a lot of sense for a Town to vote innocuously when they had no strong evidence towards anybody. That -- and stating that was my intention -- led to my death by a soldier-type (e.g., a Town that has a night kill power. Armed Rioter, in this game.).

I still think it makes sense for Town to say "I don't have good evidence, so I'll vote for somebody with 0 votes in hopes I don't draw attention to myself for inaction or for causing a lynch", but that seems to be considered Wolf action. I kinda get why, as it makes senses wolves would want to avoid attention, but at the same time it seems a completely logical Town action to me, especially Day 1 and possibly Day 2.

I think the reason more experienced players tend to dislike people trying to stay safe is in the fact that it generates very little information. Someone committing to a suspicion or joining an established wagon, especially when there are multiple competing ones gives far more info than someone staying on the side-lines. That's not to say that I don't understand why newer players don't really want to commit like that, as it can feel wrong to cut someone out of the game early on without a good reason, but staying on the sidelines until proper suspicions can be formed hurts other people's attempts to form an opinion on you, which is not good for the village.

[The Outsider]

I'm going to second the vote on Justicar, just because I want to see them speak. (Hear? See?)
And for the record, Xihirli, I don't have a backstory. I appeared one day in a puff of narrative contrivance.

[Xihirli]

What a symphony of well-crafted character we have here! As if some master storyteller, off the top of her head, invented narrative joy for us all to indulge in!

[The Outsider]

Trust me, being this wonderful is a curse. Everywhere I go, people are falling in love with me and proclaiming that I'm the best at everything. It's nice, but it's also exhausting since I care so much about everyone and just want to make their lives better.

[Xihirli]

How odd. I have a complicated backstory, violent tendencies and obvious flaws, but people always seem to have the opposite reaction to me.

Wait, am I the villain?

[The Outsider]

Villain? Of course not, don't talk like that! If people have a bad reaction to you it's their fault, not yours. You just need to make them admit that they're being mean to you because they're jealous. After all, what other reason could they have?

[Grand Arbiter]

@Libro, apart form those needing poking, has anyone else stood out to you?

I wish. Neither enough posts for me to get a read on anyone, nor enough phases to have voting data to work with.

Wait, am I the villain?

Don't be absurd. You're not *the* villain, you're *a* villain, like the rest of us. That's why we're all trying to get outta here.

[Xihirli]

You're not *the* villain, you're *a* villain, like the rest of us.

...

^{there can only be one}

[Unavenger]

...

^{there can only be one}

If someone nightkills Libro n1 we know who it was.

[flyinglemur]

I’ll be honest I was voting mostly to get the poke off my back, and avoid inactivity. There didn’t seem to be any real evidence that could be used for the day one vote, besides maybe the Caerulea case, and at the time DeTess said this

That having been said, I see no reason why the elims would want to risk an early pile-up like that, unless they where trying to draw heat off of the outsider. And even then, there are better ways to try to do that than trying to push a counter-lynch based on RNG.

I’ve only played one game of this before, so I figured I should listen to the analysis of the more experienced player, and not vote Caerulea. Unavenger seemed like as good a player as anyone to vote for.

[DeTess]

I’ll be honest I was voting mostly to get the poke off my back, and avoid inactivity. There didn’t seem to be any real evidence that could be used for the day one vote, besides maybe the Caerulea case, and at the time DeTess said this

I'd be very careful about following the lead of seemingly more experienced players, especially if that player is me. I've been wrong far more often than I've been right (and I have some rather spectacular losses to my name because of that), and any pretense to skill and expertise is merely the result of being rather public and long-winded in my analysis.

And that is, of course, working under the assumption that I, or any other experienced player you might follow, even have the village's best interest at heart :P

[Xihirli]

Very true. I could be pushing for activity in order to keep the village alive. Or I could be pushing for activity to get role slips out of town PRs so I can kill them in the night.

[Unavenger]

All this is why I prefer starting with N1 rather than D1, because no-one actually has any info on D1.

[DeTess]

All this is why I prefer starting with N1 rather than D1, because no-one actually has any info on D1.

Yeah, but this way we do have info D2. Otherwise we would start D2 with no info :P

Though I did play a game once that started with a prologue, a full cycle in which no actions could be taken or vote could be made, and where everyone was just encouraged to just talk, RP and discuss the rule-set. I think that did help jump-start discussion on D1 a bit.

Anyway, this probably going to be my last post this day, so lets get a quick vote tally and some closing remarks.

Vote tally:
Kgato(1): Elenna, Caerulea
The outsider(1): Xihirli
Xihirli(0): JeenLeen
flat_footed(1): Unavenger
Elenna(1): JeenLeen, Kgato
Unavenger(1): Flyinglemur
Basketofpuppies(1): libro
flyinglemur(0): libro
Justicar(2): Caerulae, the outsider
Caerulea(2): DeTess, kgato

Currently Caerulae and Justicar are tied. I feel like there's something here, actually, but I'll keep my speculation to myself until the night cycle starts.

Apart from that, I've got a mild village gut-read on JeenLeen. There's a certain earnestness to his posts that's fairly hard to fake.

I'm also somewhat weary of Xihirli. I don't suspect her, but I am getting the impression that she's someone who has managed to homogenize her village and wolf play-styles quite well, meaning that she'll be difficult to figure out. I'm not certain what caused this impression, I think it's something about the tone of her posts?

[Elenna]

I'm also somewhat weary of Xihirli. I don't suspect her, but I am getting the impression that she's someone who has managed to homogenize her village and wolf play-styles quite well, meaning that she'll be difficult to figure out. I'm not certain what caused this impression, I think it's something about the tone of her posts?

Sounds accurate, yeah

Also, I'm moving my vote off kgato, now that I no longer need it for self-defense purposes.
Not sure how I feel about the Caerulea-Justicar tie. Right now, Caerulea is going to be lynched (pretty sure it's based on who gets to that number of votes first?) which is fine with me, since I wouldn't be surprised if Justicar is going to be autolynched or replaced with a backup anyways.

I think I'll opt to stay out of that and poke flat-footed a bit more.

[JeenLeen]

Not sure how I feel about the Caerulea-Justicar tie. Right now, Caerulea is going to be lynched (pretty sure it's based on who gets to that number of votes first?) which is fine with me, since I wouldn't be surprised if Justicar is going to be autolynched or replaced with a backup anyways.

I think I'll opt to stay out of that and poke flat-footed a bit more.

I don't think we have any backup players, though I could be wrong. Wouldn't an auto-lynch be more likely to help the wolves, since town outnumber wolf? I get why we'd want an inactive player replaced with an an active one -- though I wouldn't be too hasty to consider someone inactive for just missing the first day or night (real life day, that is, not game Day), but it seems something likely to benefit the enemy.

In other words, why isn't your thought support of you being a wolf?

---

Though I do admit I would prefer someone with evidence against them to be lynched instead of someone who has provided no info either way. Though perhaps providing no info could be a wolf being defensive.

I'll move my vote to Caerulea. Here's hoping she's wolf. (To be honest, I'm rather hesitant to do this, lest she be discovered Town, and folk think I'm Wolf for voting for her. At least she was already set to be lynched, so I'm more solidifying her lynching than causing it.)

Apart from that, I've got a mild village gut-read on JeenLeen. There's a certain earnestness to his posts that's fairly hard to fake.

My analysis might not be supported by a lot of experience or skill, but it is earnest.

[Caerulea]

I'll move my vote to Caerulea. Here's hoping she's wolf. (To be honest, I'm rather hesitant to do this, lest she be discovered Town, and folk think I'm Wolf for voting for her. At least she was already set to be lynched, so I'm more solidifying her lynching than causing it.)

Please don't, it's worse than normal for the town. I don't like doing this Day 1, because I feel like claims should wait until later, but I am blood brothers with Xihirli.

Analysis before I die / after I am dead:

kgato503: No evidence towards wolf from votes. Retaliation vote makes perfect sense.
DeTess: I don't know. Far more experiance, and as such, I can't add much. Only reason given is 'inclusion of proof of RNG feels off'.
JeenLeen: 'Hey, I'm going to ensure Caerulea gets lynched, but I don't know if she's town, so don't think I'm a wolf if she is town.' Possible wolf, possibly just nervous.

[JeenLeen]

Please don't, it's worse than normal for the town. I don't like doing this Day 1, because I feel like claims should wait until later, but I am blood brothers with Xihirli.


JeenLeen: 'Hey, I'm going to ensure Caerulea gets lynched, but I don't know if she's town, so don't think I'm a wolf if she is town.' Possible wolf, possibly just nervous.

Nervous. Okay; I'll move it back to Elenna.

If we have an Armed Rioter, maybe Bane one of the two of them?

- - - Updated - - -

Actually, that still leaves the Blood Brothers both dead, doesn't it?

...okay, moving it to Justicar.

Analysis:
I'm a tad fearful both our supposed Blood Brothers are wolves, using this as cover. Or C is a wolf, hoping to make us think X is as well if she dies and the lie is revealed. It seems odd to say who one is a blood brother with, since that doesn't really help one's claim. A Baner could protect her, without having to protect both.

But I'm willing to think it an earnest mistake.

So:
if nobody dies tonight, it likely means we have a Baner who managed to protect whoever the wolves killed. Or the wolves decided to lose a night kill to maintain the lie about C and X. Seems good for the Town either way.

if X or C die tonight by Wolf, then the wolves killed who we would be killing for them if I left my vote on C. Seems still a safer move.

If somebody else dies tonight... well, probably means C is lying to some degree, though it could mean the wolves are hoping we vindictively kill C and thus off the both of them for the wolves.

...I feel less confident now about moving my vote off C, but still gonna. Here's hoping for honesty.

- - - Updated - - -

FYI: meaning final vote to be on Justicar. I didn't realize the forum did that "---edited----" thing if I do a follow-up post quickly. Hope that's commonly known behavior and not confusing.

[kgato503]

Please don't, it's worse than normal for the town. I don't like doing this Day 1, because I feel like claims should wait until later, but I am blood brothers with Xihirli.

Until proven otherwise, I will accept that reveal.

I am changing my vote to JeenLeen (reason coming in a moment)

[Justicar]

Sorry for not communicating since *looks at thread* Post 4. I'm in the Reserves and we are doing a "Super" drill weekend for four days of 12 hours shifts. Should be done Tuesday night. Doesn't give me much time to read forums before I have to crash for the night.

However, from the quick glance at the votes... I think I will throw my vote towards Caerulea since I think we are tied for the most votes. No reason beyond self-preservation at this point. *G*

[kgato503]

Sorry, wanted to change vote before end of day was called.

Reason for voting for JeenLeen: Repeated vote changes are something I have seen in wolves before. Admittedly, when I first changed my vote, they hadn't updated their post yet, and them pointing out that a Lovers Claim (aka Blood Brothers) could be easily collaborated by the Wolves does read as a Villager move...Oh well. Unless I have a compelling reason, I probably won't change off of JeenLeen (no offense, but I don't have any strong reads yet, and I needed to get off of Caerulea).

I'm not happy with the idea of lynching someone for inactivity/low activity at this point, which is why I haven't voted for Justicar. Especially where there were at least a few of us that were surprised at the start time of the game (some of our quiet players may have had conflicting plans/obligations)

Currently the only person not to vote is flat_footed (I think). I don't suppose they care to comment?

[Elenna]

I don't think we have any backup players, though I could be wrong. Wouldn't an auto-lynch be more likely to help the wolves, since town outnumber wolf? I get why we'd want an inactive player replaced with an an active one -- though I wouldn't be too hasty to consider someone inactive for just missing the first day or night (real life day, that is, not game Day), but it seems something likely to benefit the enemy.

In other words, why isn't your thought support of you being a wolf?

Thought process was partly that it seems a waste of a lynch if the person is going to die anyways, and partly that if we lynch someone who hasn't said anything we basically have nothing to analyze once we find out their role.

That being said, Justicar. I don't like the idea of lynching a new player who happened to be busy (actually I kind of hate it), but also I don't want two townies to die. (It's weird that Caerulea revealed their blood brother's identity, but I'm inclined to believe her unless we get a counterclaim.)

[AvatarVecna]

I'm of the opinion that starting on D1 gives town something to analyze on following days that they wouldn't have if they started on N1. It also gives town a slight advantage in the action economy of the game. Sometimes, though very rarely due to the lack of information/coordination on town's part, weirdness on D1 can actually catch a wolf in the crossfire (although thus far in my experience it's about 50-50 between "town being cleverer than wolves expected" and "oops the wolves accidentally lynched one of their own").

End Of Day One

Tensions were high as the group first encountered one another, all spouting off allegiances and suspicions and waving around improvised weapons. Eventually, however, one of them noticed that Justicar was staying rather quiet...and that they had some folders with them. They'd been snooping in the file rooms...and basically nobody but the guards had access to that place right now. Mob justice descended upon Justicar, who went to their grave insisting they were innocent. A quick perusal of the files on hand, and it turned out that was even more true than most realized: Justicar had been imprisoned here for a crime they didn't commit, framed by a corrupt cop who's later joined the guard here in the prison.

Almost nobody noticed the far more taciturn flatfoot hanging back.

Justicar was lynched. They were the Innocent.

flat_footed has not posted. If they haven't posted by the end of the next Day Phase, they will be auto-lynched, and replaced if a replacement can be found.

Night One Begins
(ends in 48 hours)

Spoiler: Votes

Show

flat_footed: Unavenger, Elenna
Unavenger: flyinglemur
BasketOfPuppies: Libro
Caerulea: DeTess, Justicar
flyinglemur: Xihirli
Justicar: Caerulea, The Outsider, JeenLeen, Elenna
JeenLeen: kgato503

[Caerulea]

Analysis:
I'm a tad fearful both our supposed Blood Brothers are wolves, using this as cover. Or C is a wolf, hoping to make us think X is as well if she dies and the lie is revealed. It seems odd to say who one is a blood brother with, since that doesn't really help one's claim. A Baner could protect her, without having to protect both.

But I'm willing to think it an earnest mistake.

Actually, saying Xihirli and I are the blood brothers is more convincing. Humans are more likely to believe a story with more details, so providing more details means it might be more convincing. Also, when Xihirli responds to me (either here or in the QT) and maybe claims as well, then it adds credibility. Furthermore, I'm not sure if there is a scryer, but they can get both of our sides in one night. The downside, which I had totally not realised, is that we both die to one night kill.

So:
if nobody dies tonight, it likely means we have a Baner who managed to protect whoever the wolves killed. Or the wolves decided to lose a night kill to maintain the lie about C and X. Seems good for the Town either way.

if X or C die tonight by Wolf, then the wolves killed who we would be killing for them if I left my vote on C. Seems still a safer move.

If somebody else dies tonight... well, probably means C is lying to some degree, though it could mean the wolves are hoping we vindictively kill C and thus off the both of them for the wolves.

...I feel less confident now about moving my vote off C, but still gonna. Here's hoping for honesty.

Don't worry, I haven't lied in this game yet.

Analysis (ignoring that my claim is true):
If I die tonight, and Xihirli doesn't, she is likely town. A wolf wouldn't kill me, because the town is likely to lynch me if I don't die this night, saving them a kill.

If Xihirli dies, and I don't, I'm almost certainly wolf, using this claim to buy an extra night. I would also immediately be lynched the following morning.

If we both die during the night: I am telling the truth, and the town loses that round. However, the other villagers are safe.

If neither of us die: we are either both town (telling the truth or not) or both wolves. I would say not to lynch us, as the wolves could then simply not kill us at night to get two free town lynches. I would say this outcome is the most likely, because of the increased suspicion put on us.

Edit: well, so much for all that. Here's hoping Xihirli and I survive.