Results 211 to 238 of 238
Thread: The Thing
-
2020-12-21, 06:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
I'm a bit confused by the lists... Initially I thought they were objective (at least the statistic) but they clearly aren't or untested people would have higher chances... I think. But then you speak of them as if you're looking at facts and not your own thoughts and that just confuses me.
-
2020-12-21, 07:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Changing my vote to The Outsider & Valmark, simply to make it less likely that we end up wasting a test on Apogee1, who is relatively unlikely to be a Thing out of the available candidates.
-
2020-12-21, 07:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Apogee was maybe the N1 conversion. That's a possibility I can 100% acknowledge. But who looks at everything that happened D2 and would then choose to convert Apogee N2? Same goes for N3, Apogee is an awful choice because they're definitely going to be on the chopping block - it's frankly a wonder they didn't get tested N2.
Similarly, let's assume that Apogee was the N1 conversion, and had to pick the N2 conversion. D2 was focused entirely around testing the untested. Apogee is currently untested. Does he pick a second untested as the N2 conversion? If he does that, and town continues only testing untested people, there's a 50% chance Things lose the whole thing on D3. This goes for if Elenna or Grek was the N1 conversion as well - none of those three would've converted one of the others N2. And I'm inclined to think that scumteam would be nervous about converting any of the three of them N3 either - even knowing that town is thinking about these things, it's still a risk converting the untested.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
-
2020-12-21, 09:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Thing
I again (for the third consecutive day) am feeling AV as not a thing.
So I feel goodish? on TO and Grek as containing one.
Well it does for sure unless Elenna is a thing.
Maybe I should see if I think that's the case.
-
2020-12-21, 09:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: The Thing
Upon rereading, I can see the argument against Apogee1. I'll switch my votes to Grek and Valmark. As was noted, I unwittingly advocated for voting the already-tested earlier while keeping my votes on the untested. This was a mistake. Someone who was retested has most likely been converted. I've already given reasons why Valmark might have been the N2, and I'm sticking with it. Meanwhile, Grek has not only been putting out good analysis, their activity has risen recently. We were supposed to look for behavioral changes, so I'm going to go with that one for the moment.
As far as my actions go, I did this already. As you might have noticed, I'm having a hard time with this game. My actions are inconsistent, weakly reasoned, and generally seem shady. That being said, the last time said actions got me voted I was clean. I'm clean now as well, and I don't think I'll be converted for at LEAST another night (though now that I've said something, I might get proven wrong). The reason is, I work much better for Things as a scapegoat and a waste of votes than I do as a member of their team. All they have to do is wait for me to speak, and I'll probably provide a way to split votes off from the real Things. It might be counterintuitive, but think about it this way: why convert someone who has already been proven to constantly attract suspicion while innocent?
So in short, don't vote for me. I've helped the Things waste enough of the Town's time as-is.
-
2020-12-22, 01:50 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Alright, I'm awake now. Let's start with the obvious- JeenLeen posted twice since last time I examined them, announcing their time offline after Night 2. As such, at the time of their first post they could have been converted (they weren't).
In their second post they look... Neutral. Kinda. They voted for two Town members but that doesn't say much and talked about how they found unlikely the Things converted some tested people.
Then they got tested and turned up Town, so we have a confirmed Town member going inactive into N3/most of D4.
I have strong doubts that they got converted instead of any notably active player- I would be wary of JL N4 though.
- - - Updated - - -
Spoiler: Little enough posts to quote themInitially this could have been two Things pooling their votes but we know Jeen wasn't a thing. Maybe Outside just jumped on an easy wagon?
One thing we disagree on is the fact of voting a wagon that is already going strong- I was going to be voted anyway (if I recall correctly) so that vote was effectively "wasted". It's an easy thing to do for a... Thing and actually not something I consider Town would/should do. But it might be just a disagreement like I previously said.
They hadn't yet switched votes here, getting convinced about Jeen afterwards- it could be just a Townie considering the possibilities when their top picks flip Thing (at least one of them) but could also be a Thing looking for a reason to change (unlikely but it's there).
Look above.
Nothing to say, everything checks out and is coherent with previous day.
You advocated for testing the re-tested and voted both untested and re-tested both toDay and last Day. That... Confuses me.
Also agreed on why you wouldn't be a Thing.
Actually seeing it like this I'm not so sure you wouldn't be a Thing- there's certainly reason for it, albeit shaky. I'd probably vote for you it Apogee1 flips Thing but from the looks of it you're getting tested while Apogee1 isn't, so nothing to do here for me (since it's pointless to vote you atm).
- - - Updated - - -
Thank god Grek's posts are easy to spot while scrolling. Also these are notably less posts then I thought, again. Grek looks much more partecipative then she is.
Spoiler: GrekSo, first off we have her skepticism about AV supposedly not being a Thing because she wouldn't have let Cao put her in the middle of the list- without giving a reason for that skepticism.
Ignoring the confusion on AV's odds (which everybody could have had. I did) she talked about the probability of everybody and about how AV isn't actually likely to be a Thing compared to the others, then voted her nonetheless (but aknowledged that).
My only doubt is if I'm misunderstanding her argument at the end, so hopefully Grek will clarify that.
Nothing to say. I agree with the first part.
Town would prefer clearing up mistakes, but this is enough small that a Thing would've done it.
Explanation here too. Thank you for that again.
I think you explain later why it can't be AV/The Outsider, for example.
Also with my headcanon that Apogee1 is a Thing and knowing that you considered them a priority this might look like you're defending them. Pending the explanation.
Saying ahead of time that you'll be confused by people not being Things looks in some way like you're preparing the ground for being wrong- or at least this is a reasoning I once heard (applied to me).
I don't agree, but I'd like to point it out.
You explained it afterwards.
Alright, everything here makes sense and self-voting on what might be the last Day helps nobody.
Maybe I missed it but why would Town be "dead sure" by voting those two specific combos? Especially the latter- last time I checked you were advocating for Valmark/Book Wombat/AvatarVecna being the most unlikely (while voting the last one nonetheless) and I didn't see anything changing that? The argument for retesting people would work for me but not for Book, who should have been an even more unlikely chance and not one of the priorities.
Legit.
I've noticed several incongruencies- especially in the end. Grek has never considered BW a plausible lynch as far as I see it after they got tested, so them and me together being sure to cstch a Thing seems... Extremely dubious.
-
2020-12-22, 03:05 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
AvatarVecnahas too many posts to quote all of them.
So, D3 we know she was Town, so everything she posted checks out. Obviously. In addition to this you know what I think about putting in extra work (which is why I'm not overly convinced Grek's a Thing or Town- she puts in the extra work, but I don't know her well and some things she wrote are suspicious in hindsight and presentsight) so I can't say anything bad about her.
On D4 she kept it up and there was something I didn't get, which she explained in a way that makes sense to me- I have no reason to vote for her when I have better candidates for my votes.
- - - Updated - - -
Apogee1 time! And they actually look less Thingy then I thought they would.
Spoiler: Apogee1Besides voting for Jeen for 'vague' reasons and disagreeing with me there's nothing that jumps to mind here- and disagreeing with me isn't a Thing move. Especially since Apogee wasn't implied where we disagreed.
To be fair, I haven't seen bad responses from them either.
The post showed up waaaaay afterwards, nothing else to say here.
Apogee1 voted congruently on their words from even the earlier day and asked some questions to push people's reasoning- that's actually pretty Towny.
Nothing to say here besides that you forgot Elenna.
Coherent, you remembered Elenna this time.
You still haven't talked about Grek, besides that... I don't feel as strongly about your Thinginess as before but currently I can't use my vote on you for anything useful so I'd rather keep it on you to have people pay attention when going back to check this Day.
- - - Updated - - -
Book Wombat
I don't actually have anything to say on this, an incorrect vote count and voting.
It looks like BW went back through the thread before voting so presumably they had some thoughts- would like to see them.
- - - Updated - - -
In fact since voting Apogee1 is currently useless let me switch to Book Wombat and Grek, so that when in D4 there will be a vote pointing to the issue.
-
2020-12-22, 03:40 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Sorry, was going to post more stuff today but then Stardew Valley update 1.5 came out and ate my free time.
Re: AV's list of possible combos: If Apogee was the N1 convert, he would be picking someone N2 while knowing that he was under a good deal of heat and there was a strong chance his conversion would be the only Thing come N3. Given that, I can't imagine Apogee picking Book Wombat, who was clearly very confused about what was going on. That's not someone you want as your only living team member. So in the world where Apogee is the N1 convert, I think either Outsider or Valmark is the N2. I could maybe see BW as the N3 convert.
I'm less sure about this, but I don't think N1-convert!Outsider would have picked BW either, I think Outsider would want someone on their team who's more confident in their ability to do analysis, since Outsider has said that's not their strong suit.
Given that Grek and Valmark are tied for votes right now, it's interesting that AV thinks Grek but not Valmark was getting too much heat to be a reasonable N3 conversion. AV, were you surprised by the wagon on Valmark today? Looking for people who mentioned suspecting Grek or Valmark on D3:
- JeenLeen listed myself, Grek, and Valmark, in no particular order but maybe leaning slightly towards Valmark, as their third-place picks for the lynch
- Valmark voted Grek but didn't seem to have strong suspicions on them, and then switched to JeenLeen for a retest.
- Outsider says Valmark would have been his pick for a conversion
- Apogee voted Grek because "should be fairly obvious why". He also mentions that he didn't like one of Valmark's posts.
- AV has a long back-and-forth with Grek, but I understood that as AV trying to explain their reasoning rather than AV being suspicious of Grek (at the time).
Kinda looks to me like there was about the same amount of suspicion on both of them. Yes, converting Grek would mean converting another untested person, but after AV argued convincingly for re-testing on D3 (and then turned out to be town), Things might expect us to do more re-testing, which might lead them to convert un-tested people. IMO either Grek and Valmark are both possible candidates for N3 conversion, or neither is. (I'd say both.)
Speaking of which,
I don't think Apogee ever answered this, unless I missed something?
Using this as a framework to look at Apogee, Outsider, and Grek, the only possible N1 conversions from my POV, and to explain why I'm rethinking this and switching to Grek + Outsider.
Voting Apogee + Outsider:
- In the world where Apogee is a Thing, I have a 100% chance of catching a Thing (Apogee) plus a 50% chance of catching a second Thing (based on the above logic that Apogee would convert either Outsider or Valmark).
- In the world where Apogee isn't a Thing, I have a 50% chance of catching a Thing (because either Outsider or Grek is the N1 conversion in that world).
- Note: Both those 50% chances are somewhat larger than that in reality, because I think Outsider is more likely to be a Thing than Grek or Valmark. Also there's the possibility Grek was converted N1 and then converted Outsider N2, which increases the second probability a little. But I'm ignoring that to simplify this math.
- So Apogee + Outsider gives me an average of x(1.5) + (1-x)(0.5) = x+0.5 Things caught, where x is the probability that Apogee was converted N1.
Voting Apogee + Grek is clearly worse than the above because it gives a 0% chance of catching a second Thing if Apogee is a Thing. That's basically a special case of AV's reasoning that we shouldn't vote two untested people.
Voting Grek + Outsider:
- In the world where Apogee is a Thing, there's a 50% chance this catches a Thing (again, assuming Apogee would convert either Outsider or Valmark). Plus a chance of catching two Things, because as mentioned above I think there's a chance of Grek being the N3 conversion, but I'm going to ignore that because it makes the "average number of Things caught" math more complicated and I don't feel like writing out a bunch more math.
- In the world where Apogee is not a Thing, this has a 100% chance of catching a Thing because one of them must be the N1 conversion, plus a chance of catching two Things if one of them converted the other one. Based on AV's chart, the chance that one of them converted the other one is 25%. I think it's slightly larger than that, because I think Grek could have been the N3 conversion and I don't think Outsider would have converted Wombat, but we can go with 25%.
- So Grek + Outsider gives an average of x(0.5) + (1-x)(1.25) = 1.25 - 0.75x Things caught - again, x being the probability Apogee is a Thing.
So from my POV (worth pointing out that this all takes for granted that I'm not a Thing, which is obviously not something that anyone else can know for sure), Grek + Outsider is a better pair of votes than Apogee + Outsider if x + 0.5 < 1.25 - 0.75x, or 1.75x < 0.75, or x < ~45%. That is, I should vote Apogee over Grek only if I think the chance that Apogee is a wolf is about 45% or more.
If we ignore analysis and assume pure random chance, Apogee, Grek, and Outsider all have 33% chances of being the N1 convert. I think Apogee's a more likely N1 convert than Grek or Outsider, but I'm not sure they're that much more likely. Plus it doesn't look like an Apogee wagon is going to happen today, so I might as well move my vote somewhere where it can actually be useful, if only for future vote-analysis purposes. Hence, switching to Grek and Outsider.
Current vote count:
Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee, Valmark, AV, Grek
Grek (4): Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, Elenna
Valmark (3): Outsider, AV, Grek
----
A couple responses:
FWIW I did observe that the "Apogee was protected by a scumbuddy" theory makes me look suspicious as well as making TO and Grek look suspicious. I'm just not calling myself out because I know I'm not a Thing.
Yeah, that makes sense re: AV and Apogee. I think I didn't make that connection earlier because I was also defending Apogee, so it didn't occur to me to think about why a Thing!AV might be making that argument because in my mind it was a reasonable townie argument.
I don't agree about JeenLeen and Outsider, though. AV's argument was basically that the Things wouldn't both be untested, i.e. at least one of the two Things at the time had already been tested once. If JeenLeen flipped Thing, then we would already have found the one already-tested Thing, so I don't think there would have been a reason to favour doing another retest.
Anyways, doesn't really matter now since neither of them flipped Thing.
- - - Updated - - -
Ninja'd by Valmark. Here's the correct vote count:
Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee, AV, Grek
Grek (4): Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, Elenna
Valmark (3): Outsider, AV, Grek
Book Wombat (1): ValmarkI'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
-
2020-12-22, 03:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Spoiler: ElennaEverything seems to check out- I especially agree on Apogee1. It's also coherent with another post that I'll point out in a bit.
She pushed for explainations, which is always good, and we know she wasn't protecting them since AV and Jeen flipped Town.
Good points I had forgotten about Apogee- doesn't change my thoughts on Apogee. Notably though seeing how it looked like Apogee1 would -finally- get tested this could be distancing too. If Elenna or Apogee turn up Thing I'd test the other.
Also pushing for explanation.
Clearing up an apparent misunderstanding and pushing for explanation.
Elenna like Grek looks more active then she is.
There's a general acting Townie feel and in addition she's been coherent from D3 to D4 by jumping on Grek and TO when AV and JL turned up Town (those four were who she wanted to check).
I'd keep an eye on her, since she's been basically flying under the radar, but hasn't said anything that makes me want to test her. That... Might be a dangerous combination if she's a Thing.
-
2020-12-22, 04:01 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
No, I was not surprised. I did the math for that table as soon as the night ended, and came to a few conclusions - among them were which that BW, TO, and Valmark were the names showing up in the most viable combos. Given that BW is only on the list for being a poor choice but not (IMO) a disastrous one, I think BW would be less likely to get targeted for a conversion than Valmark. And while Grek is similarly suspicious in terms of behavior, the longer the game has gone on the worse I think of them as a conversion target, just because they're untested.
Using this as a framework to look at Apogee, Outsider, and Grek, the only possible N1 conversions from my POV, and to explain why I'm rethinking this and switching to Grek + Outsider.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
-
2020-12-22, 04:04 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Oh great a giant post while I'm reading yours.
(This sounds more sarcastic then it is).
No, Apogee1 hasn't offered anything about Grek.
-
2020-12-22, 04:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
Spoiler: Some QuotesBolded/underlined for emphasis.
Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.
Bolded/underlined for emphasis.
Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.
Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.
Bolded/underlined for emphasis.
I wasn't in their shoes at the start of today, the way I was yesterday, so I forgot the situation they're in for a second. Put yourself in TO's shoes for a second:
You're a townie. You know that for absolute sure. And based on TO's last post, you're accepting that the Apogee argument looks a lot less solid than you thought previously. So that's Apogee as very-probably-not-scum. You look back at the N1 conversion. There's only four people it could be - Apogee1, Elenna, Grek, and The Outsider. Since you know it can't be TO, and you're pretty sure it can't be Apogee1...obviously you vote Elenna/Grek, to guarantee catching at least one scum so that town doesn't auto-lose today. You probably won't catch two unless you're lucky/scum is stupid, but you just have to catch one.
You read through those posts I quoted, and you can see - The Outsider doesn't seem to be thinking about the N1 conversion at all. It's the strongest argument he could make in his own defense, and instead he's voting Valmark. He's just going along with one person I said to vote, instead of pointing out (what should be, from TO's PoV) an obvious flaw in my voting plan.
...let's see how the others hold up.
Apogee is thinking about the N1 conversion, and doesn't have much else to go on so far, so he's just voting with his gut from that list of three. That checks out - scum could do that too, but doing it is way less scummy than not doing it.
Elenna had a big analysis post about the N1 conversion and who she thinks is the likely candidate. This is the kind of effort I really wanna see from town on this kinda thing, and it clearly shows this has been on her mind.
Grek starts out citing the N1 conversion hunt as the reason behind her votes, and then...forgets about it and changes her votes to exactly match mine? The general impression I've gotten from throughout this game is that Grek is pretty solid on analysis, I don't see her forgetting how far we've got the N1 conversion narrowed down. So why deflect off of it when she should be pushing the exact same point that Elenna just pushed, that I'm pushing now?
Grek and The Outsider. I could maybe believe that one of them honestly forgot, but both of them, when they're in the final four of the N1 conversion candidates? No. Grek/The Outsider is guaranteed to catch at least one wolf, and my gut is telling me we've got a solid chance at catching two. In the case that they both flip Thing, I'm also clearing Valmark - no way they'd both throw him under the bus like that, they were just going along with an easy lynch that got set up by me.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
-
2020-12-22, 06:12 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Gender
Re: The Thing
At the time I decided to flip, the vote count looked like this:
The Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee1, Grek, AvatarVecna
Apogee1 (3): Elenna, Valmark, The Outsider
Grek (2): Apogee1, Valmark
Valmark (2): The Outsider, AvatarVecna
Elenna (1): Grek
Look at that bolded bit from my perspective. I know that the statistically best votes to avoid LYLO are either Book Wombat/Valmark, Elenna/Outsider, Outsider/Grek or Grek/Elenna. I know that I'm Town, so that eliminates the last two options from my consideration: I want to make today's vote be either Book Wombat/Valmark or Elenna/Outsider if there's any way to make that happen. Unfortunately, as things stand, neither is a serious possibility and sticking with my initial vote means that the ultimate vote is going to be Outsider/Apogee1. A mixed strategy like Valmark/Outsider is less good than a pure strategy, but still statistically better than Outsider/Apogee1. Seriously, check the math on it:
Spoiler: MathApogee/Outsider avoids a Thing if Elenna was the N1 convert (1/3) and Outsider was not the N2 convert (4/5) for a total of 11/15 (73%) that the Town gets at least one thing.
Conversely Outsider/Valmark avoids a Thing only if (2/3) TO wasn't picked N1 (2/3), neither was picked N2 (2/4) and Valmark wasn't picked N3 (3/4), for a total of 36/48 (75%) that the town gets a Thing.
Both of these are inferior to Outsider/Elenna (which requires (1/3) followed by (2/4) for a total of 10/12 aka 83% chance of getting a Thing), but as previously noted Outsider/Elenna wasn't something that I could make happen.
Outsider/Valmark was, so I went for it.
Unfortunately, that has apparently resulted in us ending up at Outsider/Grek. Which is just as good from the perspective of non-Grek Town as Outsider/Elenna (good!), but known to me from my perspective to include at least one wasted vote (uh oh). So while I like that everyone is going for one of the logical voting options now... please reconsider?
- - - Updated - - -
Wombat/Valmark isn't guaranteed to catch a Thing. Rather, the logic behind that vote pairing is that you two the only ones who seem like plausible N2 AND N3 conversion targets, making for a mirror of the N1/N2 situation with Elenna/Outsider/me. The raw stats are better going by AV's numbers, but again as you've noted those are AV's numbers and are premised on the Things definitely not double-converting untested people. If we allow for a small chance that they did double convert untested people, either through scum error or as a weird WIFOM ploy, you're basically back down to even odds with Elenna/The Outsider, Elenna/Grek or Grek/The Outsider as a vote. Hence why those four were my possible considerations in the post above.
This is overall a very weird post. While the actual vote is a mirror of my own for their position, it doesn't look like TO arrived at it by the same logic that I did. Instead justification is that I've been more active than usual and do good analysis. That doesn't seem like a good reason to me. The rest of the post is arguing that we shouldn't vote for them because everyone things TO is scum in this game, even when they're not. But that's exactly why the Things would have converted him. He's been previously tested and has a built in excuse for looking suspicious and for making weird calls. I am overall pretty confident in Outsider as a vote, which is why I'm not in Full Panic Mode over the current vote going after me - we'll probably get a Thing in TO and then jump onto the obvious other Thing from there. (Not posting just yet who I think the obvious other Thing is, you'll see once I'm cleared.)
Side note: Everyone keeps noting that I seem like I post more than I do. Which, yeah, fair cop. I'm a fairly terse writer and struggle to spell out my thoughts explicitly. But my analysis has been consistently useful, as people have noted, and that makes it so that the stuff I do post has an outsized impact on the conversation. I don't feel like that should be a scum tell so much as a 'Grek is just like that' tell.Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-22 at 06:15 AM.
-
2020-12-22, 11:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: The Thing
Originally Posted by Grek
Originally Posted by Valmark
Originally Posted by AvatarVecna
I'm kind of panicking here. Because I know I'm Town, and if Grek is unexpectedly telling the truth then we might just be about to lose the game the way this vote is shaping up.
-
2020-12-22, 01:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Apologies I’ve been driving a lot these last few days.
But let’s talk Grek.
- - - Updated - - -
So I could continue on with Grek and like d1 and why he’d fit as a conversion and all that and might go back and do so.
But like, can we just think about this list for a second. I’m not really sure how to describe what I think is thing-y about it, but I think it is thing-y if that makes sense? Like a bunch of small things. The placing of himself 6th. The reasons on Jeen and TO like, feel thin? Obviously at least 3/4 of the bottom 4 are wrong but town are wrong plenty as well so that’s more an aside. I think him pivoting off me so fully on the basis of AV’s read is strange.
- - - Updated - - -
Hmm.
I guess like, there’s some weird team with like, Elenna and 1+ of AV/Valmark we are losing to right now.
But I don’t think? That’s the case. Guess it’s worth a last minute thought
- - - Updated - - -
Anyways also regarding Grek — I remain convinced self-voting Cao is going to mention/shade a partner while going down. Grek like, falls right there. And like, he fits all the markers for an n1
-
2020-12-22, 02:32 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: The Thing
Haven't had time to read up, but posting to avoid the autolynch in about 30 minutes.
I didn't see my autolynching previously, but if I missed it and shouldn't be posting, sorry.
-
2020-12-22, 02:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
I think you're good. Very long story short, vote The Outsider and either Grek or Valmark. I keep flip-flopping between those two in my head, but I'm feeling super-solid on TO. EDIT: At least part of that is, I'm sure enough that TO is about to get caught out, that even if Grek or Valmark isn't a Thing, it'd be good to get them confirmed trustworthy. This is extra-true of Grek, who's made a lot of arguments and has a lot of analysis. But if it's just gonna catch a second Thing, as I suspect, that's even better.
Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-22 at 02:49 PM.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
-
2020-12-22, 03:10 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Oh I see, makes sense voting BW then.
Saying how you seem to be posting more is less of a Thing tell and more of an alert sign- and can be a tell if summed to other things (something like two things being a coincidence and three being a scheme).
I was told multiple times how I make a lot of noise with little substance, so I kinda have the opposite problem (although I don't think I was terribly active this time around).
My confusion was because you've voted one tested and one untested on the previous Day too (switching from two untested)- so I don't see how it was a 'mistake'.
Nah, haven't been auto-lynched.
-
2020-12-22, 03:15 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: The Thing
The day ended (about 15 mins ago). I have to go tally, but no more votes.
Final vote count:
Grek (5): AV, Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, and Elenna
Outsider (4): AV, Elenna, Apogee, Grek
Valmark (2): Outsider, Greg
Book Wombat (1): Valmark
Not voted: Book Wombat or JeenLeen
Grek and Outsider both get tested. Neither one of them is a Thing. BOTH are normal.
@JL: you would have been fine because you voted D3, so it was N3, D4, N4 before you would have been lynched on D5 with no activity.
2 town not voting really hurt because it was 3 Things vs 3 town instead of 3v5.
With Christmas around the bend and going into tomorrow being 4v4 (assuming BW actually shows up to vote). I am going to call this for the Things. All they have to do is coordinate all of them votingthe same2 people at beginning oddly tomorrow and it is won, so rather than drag that out, I decided to end it.
Elenna, Valmark, and AV were the things (recruited in that order).
The thing qt is hereLast edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-12-22 at 03:29 PM.
-
2020-12-22, 03:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Geez, I actually got fairly worried towards the end because I wasn't sure I could make a case against Grek for AV to use (Elenna did it, luckily).
Having two Townie disappear at the end really pushed the odds towards us though.
-
2020-12-22, 03:48 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Go Things!
Congrats on being sort of correct?
- - - Updated - - -
Something that amused me: Because rogue_alchemist didn't include the names of the Things in the starting post of the Thing QT, and Cao didn't post until a little later, Caerulea thought they were the only Thing when D1 started. Which means they really didn't think about where their partner was on that alphabetical list - it's just coincidence that their partner didn't get moved closer to the start of the list.I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
-
2020-12-22, 04:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Thing
I find it amusing that just like in the theorycrafting dice game I did, I get converted at the last second to join the winning team.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
-
2020-12-22, 04:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Location
- six feet under
- Gender
Re: The Thing
Well played everyone else. This game has certainly been a learning experience, but I had fun. Sorry Thing team for throwing so hard day one. At least it all worked out in the end.
- - - Updated - - -
Dead Chat.
Non caerulea sum, Caerulea nomen meum est.
Extended Signature.
I'm not not a humanoid. Come not not be one too.
Answer trivial questions in the OOTS trivia thread!
she/her
-
2020-12-22, 05:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Gender
Re: The Thing
I REALLY should have gone ahead and posted my Elenna/Valmark/Outsider scumteam theory. It was 2/3rds right.
-
2020-12-22, 05:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
-
2020-12-22, 06:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
-
2020-12-22, 06:37 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: The Thing
Well, bummer. I'm sad I didn't get a chance to read up and vote, but I probably would have voted for Grek (no change) and AV (a Thing, but not enough votes to matter.) So I guess it didn't matter.
-
2020-12-22, 10:53 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: The Thing
This was definitely a different type of game, I enjoyed it but it really changed the way I was thinking about strategy. It was kinda weird that the safest play for things was to heavily bus one another if someone is seen as suspicious, so you avoid the extra vote. I figured Elenna would have to bus me, so really good job with doing that and staying out of people's focus.
We mentioned it in the dead chat, but Book Wombat randomly got both of the original things with RNG and then I think Apogee listed the exact team of Things, but luckily they were able to make it through the end of the day.
I'm also kind of glad I was dead for all of the math heavy posts, I am not a math person and not sure how I would have reacted to them as either side.