Crazy Idea Mafia

[gac3]

Ignore this. Forgot I can't talk.

[Unavenger]

@Unavenger: If a person who started out town and was converted to cult dies, would we see that they were originally town, or would they just flip cult?

Yes, you will see that they were town.

[Elenna]

Yes, you will see that they were town.

Huh, okay, guess I was wrong about kgato starting out town, then. In that case, nevermind about Logan. For lack of a better suspect right now, I'm down to test Valmark's Duck999 theory.

[Apogee1]

Remind me of the theory? Was that the triple alliance thing or something more recent?

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Also ik in a game with so many PR it’s tempting to just wait for night on a bunch of things but daytime stuff matters too so the town can kill baddies!!

[Valmark]

Remind me of the theory? Was that the triple alliance thing or something more recent?

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Also ik in a game with so many PR it’s tempting to just wait for night on a bunch of things but daytime stuff matters too so the town can kill baddies!!

Yeah, it's really only that. It's not much to go on, honestly. But that Smasher kill gives me the feeling that the faction (either Mafia or Aliens we determined?) wanted to frame Caoimhin, so I don't want to vote for them. Even if it doesn't mean Cao isn't a wolf of any other faction.

I need to reread but there shouldn't be any major difference between who to vote among Duck/tltr/bc56.

[Duck999]

Okay so I'm up for killing either Valmark or JoyWonderLove for considering the "what if town doesn't exist" which is only a question that aliens, cultists, mafiites, and werewolves could not know the answer to. Anyone have any particular reason as to which one first?

This is Xihirli's first real vote this game. Day one was a vote on me to de-balance the tie vote. Day two was a joke vote on me that remained the whole day. As with the last game, I would say Xihirli is a jester if there was one. However, there isn't.

This isn't the strongest first real vote either, especially since Joy specifically said they had a feeling town did exist, which implies they are town. Valmark's remark was sketchy, but not to the point that justifies this being Xihirli's only logic so far this game.

Point is, Xihirli.

I need to reread but there shouldn't be any major difference between who to vote among Duck/tltr/bc56.

Then may I recommend we test it on one of the other two choices?

[Xihirli]

Me? Barely paying heed to logic for decision-making skills?
Absurd.

[bc56]

Ignore this. Forgot I can't talk.

*Gasp*
The dead speak!?

Necromancy!

Placeholder vote on Lord Athos for having a name that sounds like a necromancer's.

[Apogee1]

Wait the Necromancy and evil villians are supposed to be in the next game of mafia

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Bc56 what do you think of the Valmark Duck/Trtl/You theory while you are here?

[Aventine]

Gut reaction is that I don't like Duck's post there. It feels off. However, given the early wagons on him two days in a row, which both dissipated and ultimately didn't really come to anything, I feel like I'd try to focus attention back onto him if I were scum.

[Valmark]

Then may I recommend we test it on one of the other two choices?

You may (how haughty I feel) and...

*Gasp*
The dead speak!?

Necromancy!

Placeholder vote on Lord Athos for having a name that sounds like a necromancer's.

bc56, are you really making a joke vote now at day 3? Or there is an actual reason?

Also because as I said, there is no specific reason to target any of them that I can recall so this is a better reason then none.

[Elenna]

Yeah, it's really only that. It's not much to go on, honestly. But that Smasher kill gives me the feeling that the faction (either Mafia or Aliens we determined?) wanted to frame Caoimhin, so I don't want to vote for them. Even if it doesn't mean Cao isn't a wolf of any other faction.

I need to reread but there shouldn't be any major difference between who to vote among Duck/tltr/bc56.

I'm fairly certain at this point that smasher was killed by an alien mindslaving a mafia strongman. But it could also be that Cao is an alien and wanted to kill one of the people accusing them? I generally tend not to put much stock in looking at who the night-kills accused, because it's pretty WIFOM-y.

Also I'm super curious how aliens figured out the identity of a mafia strongman. Maybe they just got super lucky? Maybe they tracked the mafia killer N1? It's not even clear if aliens knew that their mindslaver was going to get a kill tonight, although it does seem like they did something N1.

*Gasp*
The dead speak!?

Necromancy!

Placeholder vote on Lord Athos for having a name that sounds like a necromancer's.

...Yeah, moving my vote to bc56 for the D3 joke vote completely ignoring all the actual discussion. Also the trio theory.

[Apogee1]

Also I'm super curious how aliens figured out the identity of a mafia strongman. Maybe they just got super lucky? Maybe they tracked the mafia killer N1? It's not even clear if aliens knew that their mindslaver was going to get a kill tonight, although it does seem like they did something N1.

There are plenty of ways I think from mind-slaving a cult spy or tracker to having a investigative or tracker themselves. Or getting lucky. Or some more convoluted mind-slaver-and-other-interactions information gathering chain I can't really think of but that might exist.

[Valmark]

I'm fairly certain at this point that smasher was killed by an alien mindslaving a mafia strongman. But it could also be that Cao is an alien and wanted to kill one of the people accusing them? I generally tend not to put much stock in looking at who the night-kills accused, because it's pretty WIFOM-y.

Also I'm super curious how aliens figured out the identity of a mafia strongman. Maybe they just got super lucky? Maybe they tracked the mafia killer N1? It's not even clear if aliens knew that their mindslaver was going to get a kill tonight, although it does seem like they did something N1.



...Yeah, moving my vote to bc56 for the D3 joke vote completely ignoring all the actual discussion. Also the trio theory.

Honestly, I feel like they either catched the Strongman by luck or because they scried them D1 (or watched)

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N1 I meant, actually.

[bc56]

C'mon people, seriously?
I posted a joke vote while I read through the discussion more closely.

But since you guys are gunning for me, I guess for now I'll move to the largest other wagon for now, which will be Valmark since he's targeting me, and I'm no wolf, which means he probably is.

[Aventine]

Smasher0404's role was Werewolf Doctor

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Spoiler: Spoilered for length

Show

If we're voting mostly blind, I'll vote for bc56 because only a guilty murderer person wouldn't want to look innocent, and they have fewer votes than AvatarVecna.

Joke vote. Potential that he voted for a scum-buddy to try to create cheap distance. Would be far from the first time that's happened. But that's not a strong argument by itself.

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Not sure why you would want to specifically vote for someone who has less votes? Looks sort of like you want to vote for them but don't really want them to be lynched.
(Also, wouldn't guilty murderers especially want to look innocent? )

Would normally vote them for this but I think this is smasher's first game here, and my policy is to not vote new players D1 unless they're super obviously wolfy.

Because voting for someone is more interesting than voting for a No Lynch , I'm guessing that a blind lynch will likely result in more friendly fire than not Day 1, since non-townies won't back a bandwagon that contains one of their members. Since that intention wasn't clear (if there is still time), I'm changing my vote to the still not very useful No Lynch

Called out by Elenna for looking like he didn't really want to lynch bc56. And he drops to No Lynch. Curious. And seems to simultaneously be arguing against voting No Lynch. Doesn't feel very natural, and honestly makes me suspect Elenna was right and smasher overreacted to being correctly called out.

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Valmark, I'm a little confused by your reasoning. bc56/trtl/Duck999 might be a faction, and so you try to lynch DukeGod who bc56 voted for? Wouldn't that conclusion make it LESS likely for DukeGod to be a non-town? Since we can assume that Day 1 there would be no reason for someone to vote to lynch someone from their own faction. Plus I don't actually see the reasoning behind lynching DukeGod (besides the reasoning we had from last time, which is piling on a vote onto an already full bandwagon). I'm going to have to put a tentative vote on you, Valmark, until I can some more explanation. Your accusations are making me a bit suspicious.

Voting for Valmark there is potentially interesting. If it was simply a pressure vote I would feel better about it, but that last bit there feels like trying to start building a case against Valmark

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Thing is, there are multiple factions. DukeGod and bc56 could easily be different factions, so the fact that one voted the other is kinda useless- for example, as far as mafia is concerned, wolves are roughly the equivalent of networked, kill-capable Town for winning the game.
And the reasoning on Duke is the same as last day, which I mentioned by quoting flat.

Thing is, assuming a roughly random distribution, the odds of DukeGod being a member of a non-Town faction goes down the more factions we rule out. He's less likely to be Cultist (if there are any left), because he voted for AvatarVecna before the fake Innocent reveal. He's not a part of bc56/Duck/trtl's hypothetical faction because bc56 cast their vote for DukeGod and the vote went down to the wire. That leaves 3 potential non-town factions of Mafia, Wolves, Aliens, and SK (depending on whether the trio's hypothetical faction is Mafia, Wolves, or Aliens).

That being said, I get the logic in regards to DukeGod jumping on the bandwagon day 1 makes a certain amount of sense (although, today makes sense, since he'd want to stay alive even if he was town).
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I'm going to very temporarily change my vote to No Lynch with the contingent that I'll almost certainly change it once I've made up my mind.

Continues trying to make his case, but backs down from voting for Valmark, who hasn't received any more votes so any attempt to build a case against him isn't looking promising. Overall between this post and the previous one, it feels like he was trying to build a case on Valmark as a reaction to Valmark's bc/trtl/Duck theory. OMGUS by proxy. I doubt all four of smasher, bc, trtl and Duck and scum-buddies, but smasher plus two of the three?

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...(long post)...

I mean a No Lynch vote won't happen, and I'm happy with the two leading wagons being the leading wagons. However, if I need to take a side, I guess I'll change my vote to you, CaoimhinTheCape. You had time to change your vote, and you chose No Lynch over AvatarVecna, leaving it much easier for a known false claim to avoid lynching (requiring only 1 vote as opposed to 2). First Instinct in that situation if you think someone is guilty would most likely be to think to vote for that person. You chose to change it to No Lynch, which seems a much more conscientious decision than you are letting on.

Considers Caoimhin switching to No Lynch to be a sign of scumminess. Which is amusing in hindsight. Feels like trying to build a case against Caoimhin more than actually scum-hunting.

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...(long post)...

Isn't current speculation that DukeGod is an Alien? That would eliminate the case of Caoimhin being scum-buddies with both (it's hard to be buddies with two different factions). My current opinion is that Caoimhin is a cultist. Caoimhin's current defense is that he didn't have time to think it through, and thus went with No Lynch as his first instinct. However, that doesn't make 100% sense to me as a FIRST instinct. Sure, there are tactical benefits to going No Lynch in that scenario for Town, but Caoimhin's own testimony implies a desire to have lynched AvatarVecna back then

The Day was about to end and the only options were AV or DukeGod. I wanted to put down a vote as quickly as possible and picked No Lynch. I knew there was no way a No Lynch would happen given the one or two minutes left in the day, but wanted AV to be the leading wagon. Looking back, I could have sealed it by voting AV but I wrote the first thing that came to mind. Glad I did, as the Day ended a minute later.

Now, it could be possible for Caoimhin is telling the truth, No Lynch was the first way to get AV in the lead that he thought of and he went with it. However, if his goal was to change the lead to AV, and he was hurrying to do so, my instincts tells me that he would have thought to vote for AV first. He didn't do that, which implies a certain amount of premeditation that his defense implies he didn't have time to do. I think he was bussing AV, but wanted to leave open the possibility of a switch in case someone else decided to last minute change their vote.

The strategy you outline below that making it easier to switch benefits town only works when there is time to both catch up to the thread, and make that decision-changing vote. Caoimhin submitted his vote literally a minute before the day officially ended. The only way for a switch to have occurred after Caoimhin's vote for No Lynch would have been for someone to be submitting a vote WHILE Caoimhin was casting their vote. (A very low probability outcome, but still higher probability of being able to still save AV). Either way, it looks like Caoimhin was distancing from AvatarVecna by switching who was in the lead, but, the last minute No Lynch vote gave AvatarVecna a stronger chance of surviving.

I already called out the big problem with the logic at the end there. More effort to build a case against someone he thinks he can get lynched, rather than trying to find scum.

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What? Your theory is that I'm a cultist? Me voting for DukeGod would have given AvatarVecna a 100% chance to survive. If I'm going to be obvious with a last minute vote to save an ally, I'm going to commit to that. Changing my vote to No Lynch caused AvatarVecna to die and (obviously) brought all sort of attention to me. Worst of all worlds.

I had no reason to distance myself from AvatarVecna, since I wasn't seen as supporting him before - my previous vote was on trtl, so it wasn't affecting the lynch at all. There was no connection between the two of us.

The only way it makes sense for me to be a cultist with AvatarVecna is if I saved him, which I would have been able to do.

You absolutely came out as supporting him Day 1

Is it weird that I think AV lying was still a town move? Saving themselves while not actually claiming their role? I'll vote Duke God to force a tie again, though I think that still means AV dies. AV's death gives more info immediately but I'm curious to see how night actions would revolve around AV.

You casted the tying vote for DukeGod AFTER AvatarVecna was caught lying. You only removed that vote AFTER AvatarVecna made his last ditch effort to save himself (a move that would have left him on the chopping block Day 2). While staying on the DukeGod wagon would have saved AvatarVecna from Day 1, unless the situation radically changed, he would have been lynched Day 2. I'd point to the wagons today, besides yourself, the only two players with any real number of votes between them were the leading wagons from yesterday. AvatarVecna dying before night 2 was a high probability event (to the point of almost certainty), saving him would have left you at higher risk of being lynched later on for that show of support. So you'd have two options to distance yourself Day 1, a direct vote for AvatarVecna, and a No Lynch vote. Both would distance you from him, breaking the tie when you cast your vote. But a No Lynch vote gives the highest possible chance for the best scenario: someone changing their vote to DukeGod or away from AvatarVecna, breaking the tie in the Cultists' favor.

More of the same...

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Conclusions:
-Neither Valmark nor Caoimhin are werewolves
-bc has a decent, but not exactly overwhelming, chance of being a werewolf
-Duck or trtl has a decent (but lesser) chance of being a werewolf

kgato next

[Valmark]

C'mon people, seriously?
I posted a joke vote while I read through the discussion more closely.

But since you guys are gunning for me, I guess for now I'll move to the largest other wagon for now, which will be Valmark since he's targeting me, and I'm no wolf, which means he probably is.

It doesn't make much sense to post a vote just to have it while you read. Not that it's something incriminating, though feels a bit weird.

And, uh, voting you doesn't really mean I'm wolf since on average it happens often for town to vote town since townie don't know each other.

[Aventine]

C'mon people, seriously?
I posted a joke vote while I read through the discussion more closely.

But since you guys are gunning for me, I guess for now I'll move to the largest other wagon for now, which will be Valmark since he's targeting me, and I'm no wolf, which means he probably is.

It is way too early in the day, and your wagon is nowhere near far enough out in the lead, for a self-preservation vote.

bc56

[Valmark]

It is way too early in the day, and your wagon is nowhere near far enough out in the lead, for a self-preservation vote.

bc56

Well, according to what they wrote it's not a self-preservation. It's a vote because only wolves vote a townie, which for obvious reasons isn't true.

[Aventine]

C'mon people, seriously?
I posted a joke vote while I read through the discussion more closely.

But since you guys are gunning for me, I guess for now I'll move to the largest other wagon for now, which will be Valmark since he's targeting me, and I'm no wolf, which means he probably is.

Well, according to what they wrote it's not a self-preservation. It's a vote because only wolves vote a townie, which for obvious reasons isn't true.

Not that I fully believe him, but you don't look too great trying to misrepresent what he said.

[Valmark]

I'm not misrepresenting then, given that they said that I'm probably a wolf because I'm voting for them right after the part you bolded. I'm not the only other "large" wagon (without their vote I was tied with Xihirli at 1) so the reason they gave is relevant.

It makes more sense to vote for me then for Xi to protect oneself since I'm already voting for them, but the reason stated isn't a good one, at least in my opinion.

[bc56]

Well, Valmark.
Let's go back to the discards, shall we?

It is a reasonable assumption that a player is unlikely to be either of the things on their discarded card. (It's not impossible, but the fact that you discarded those means you didn't want them. )

Valmark discarded Town Protective, which makes it unlikely that he is town or protective (although possible, given the chance of duplicates)

I, on the other hand, discarded Mafia Innocent, which makes me unlikely to be mafia or Innocent-looking. Just in terms of probability, I am less likely to be scum.

Furthermore, given the large number of town discards, I believe there are far more scum than townies, reducing the odds of townies voting for each other by a significant amount.
Therefore, I suspect the people who jumped on the wagon against me quickly on flimsy grounds of being a scum faction.
Valmark, Elenna, and Aventine, this means you.

[Aventine]

Kgato503's role was Cult Doctor

Dangerous night for doctors...

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Spoiler: Spoilered for "length"

Show

Yep, come for the comic, stay for the community.

I'll be honest, I did not expect to see quite that many greens discarded. 16 Town cards were discarded, 3 Mafia, 1 Alien, 1 Werewolf, and 2 Cultist (this is including Logic's auto discards). It is also interesting to note the number of duplicates discarded (For Town Roles there is 1 title that was discarded twice, 3 titles discarded thrice, and 1 title that was discarded five times)(None of the other sides had duplicate title discards within their sides). All this can probably tell us something more about the ratios (unless I missed that they were announced clear as day somewhere)...but I'm not up to trying to do the math right now . Also, tracking does not seem to be a very popular power.

For my D1 first vote pick I'll go with...Logan1996. First off, are you with us? Second, why did you discard the Town Seer card?! (Yes, I know gac3 and LoveWonderJoy did as well, but they have both made an appearance already).

Well I'm telling you now, don't let somebody else tell you how to play. I always tell kgato to play more, but ignoring me is working just fine for him.

You know, one of these days I might just imitate you, make half a million QTs, pull shenanigans, and see what happens . (Spoiler: I'll probably die quickly there after, repeatedly )

Day one vote for Logan. I'll say the same thing about possible cheap distancing I said about smasher and bc. Not much else there

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If there was a jester in this game, I'd be convinced it's you, but as is...

Thanks, Xihirli.

Also, @the Caoimhin wagon: I'm always suspicious of a vote for No Lynch, but I feel like it's been a while since I've seen an actual wolf make the mistake of voting No Lynch.

I'll second (or is that third at this point?) that last bit. Most wolves tend to know better, especially on this forum where it tends to inspire people to kill you (although things are a little more relaxed then they used to be). Honestly, Cape's posts feel townie to me (as compared to when we were wolves together last game). No, I can't articulate that better right now (Call id D2 instincts?). Just something about the phrasing and thought process (as presented) doesn't feel like Wolf!Cape.

DukeGod has me a bit suspicious. Their answers are not completely satisfactory to me, and something about it is tripping off my wolf-dar...Again, I cannot pinpoint exactly what right now, beyond some of the things already mentioned (the Alien roles train of thought definitely waved some flags for me, though). They are also in the lead for votes by a good margin if I am not mistaken.

Duck999 (curse you sudden but inevitable betrayal )(seriously, I have been trying not to let it color my judgement too badly) seems to be a repeat wagon with little basis (if I'm not mistaken, it started as retaliation for betrayal last game on D1, and on being a major wagon D1)...That being said, I haven't seen anything really note worthy in their posts. While they have been popular when it comes to votes, they haven't been in danger later in the day, and seem to not have made too strong a case for saving themselves (I'm not seeing a lot of analysis in their posts, unless I'm missing something).

(In other words, Cape=slight Town Lean; DukeGod=Not Town Lean; Duck999=*shrug*)

Since DukeGod is pretty well covered right now, I would like to pressure Duck999 a little.

If I am not mistaken, the vote count is as follows (yes, I'm being lazy right now and not putting who voted for who)(Disclaimer: I make no promises concerning accuracy
DukeGod: 6 votes
Duck999: 4 votes (including my own)
CaomhinTheCape: 3 votes

Well, my attempt to pressure seems to have fallen flat, so I'm changing my vote to DukeGod. While Cape's No Lynch vote was not the best choice no matter how you spin it, it seems more like a Townie mistake than not (for reasons already stated by others). Also, they are still not tripping off my scum-dar (now upgraded from just wolf-dar ). DukeGod, on the other hand, is still setting something off. That being said, let me ask the following:

@ DukeGod: Setting aside the whole Alien discussion, what are your thoughts on the game currently? If you weren't being bandwagoned, who wold you vote for, and why?
@ CaomhinTheCape: Same question, really. Setting aside the whole No Lynch issue, what are your thoughts on the game, as things stand (Yes, I know it is only D2). Who would you vote for (and why), if you weren't in a defensive position?

Could be defending a scum-buddy Caoimhin. I stand by my position that if Caoimhin is scum, he's not cult. (I mean, unless he's been converted, but that possibility is true for everyone still alive)

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Conclusions:
-kgato is too quiet
-possibility of Logan being a cultist
-possibility of Caoimhin having been converted to cult

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I'm not misrepresenting them

Well, according to what they wrote it's not a self-preservation

But since you guys are gunning for me, I guess for now I'll move to the largest other wagon for now

Yes, he had more than one choice for a self-preservation vote. No, the fact that he gave a bad reason for his choice does not make it not a self-preservation vote.

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Well, Valmark.
Let's go back to the discards, shall we?

It is a reasonable assumption that a player is unlikely to be either of the things on their discarded card. (It's not impossible, but the fact that you discarded those means you didn't want them. )

Valmark discarded Town Protective, which makes it unlikely that he is town or protective (although possible, given the chance of duplicates)

I, on the other hand, discarded Mafia Innocent, which makes me unlikely to be mafia or Innocent-looking. Just in terms of probability, I am less likely to be scum.

Furthermore, given the large number of town discards, I believe there are far more scum than townies, reducing the odds of townies voting for each other by a significant amount.
Therefore, I suspect the people who jumped on the wagon against me quickly on flimsy grounds of being a scum faction.
Valmark, Elenna, and Aventine, this means you.

Assuming Valmark is not town because he discarded a town card conveniently ignores the possibility of drawing two town cards.

I don't think you're mafia, I think you're a wolf. And, to be honest, arguing from a standpoint of it being unlikely to draw two town cards does suggest that you didn't.

People voting for you being more likely to be scum follows only trivially from the assumption of there being more scum. That is, that assumption causes the probability of everyone being scum to increase. Including you.

If you think my grounds for voting for you are flimsy, then go ahead and address them.

[Valmark]

Well, Valmark.
Let's go back to the discards, shall we?

It is a reasonable assumption that a player is unlikely to be either of the things on their discarded card. (It's not impossible, but the fact that you discarded those means you didn't want them. )

Valmark discarded Town Protective, which makes it unlikely that he is town or protective (although possible, given the chance of duplicates)

I, on the other hand, discarded Mafia Innocent, which makes me unlikely to be mafia or Innocent-looking. Just in terms of probability, I am less likely to be scum.

Furthermore, given the large number of town discards, I believe there are far more scum than townies, reducing the odds of townies voting for each other by a significant amount.
Therefore, I suspect the people who jumped on the wagon against me quickly on flimsy grounds of being a scum faction.
Valmark, Elenna, and Aventine, this means you.

It is a reasonable assumption only if you assume that it's not likely to draw multiple card of the same type. Not knowing the deck used, in my opinion it's more likely to be Town on average because it's more reasonable to have an higher number of Town cards, leading to higher chances of double or even triple draws of the same type of cards.

And for obvious reasons discarding Mafia doesn't mean you are likely to be Town, it means you are less likely to be Mafia. Could be Cultist, or Werewolf, or anything else besides Survivor and Serial Killer.

On the same basis I can't say I believe there to be more wolves then townies. I did entertain the idea, but there could be very well comparable numbers or more townies- especially after... 5 wolf deaths and a neutral, considering the SK a wolf? Of course with the cultists danger is hard to theorize.

Also, the reasons against were present from day 1- someone acted on them in day 2, more people joined on day 3. I wouldn't say quickly at all. You weren't even going to be targeted if you hadn't joke-voted, at least not so soon (something else could have happened more down the line, or nothing at all)

[Elenna]

C'mon people, seriously?
I posted a joke vote while I read through the discussion more closely.

But since you guys are gunning for me, I guess for now I'll move to the largest other wagon for now, which will be Valmark since he's targeting me, and I'm no wolf, which means he probably is.

Kinda confused by the idea of having a joke vote up for just a couple hours while reading through stuff, but okay, I suppose I can understand the desire to have a vote up given the backlash against No Lynch votes (although specifically saying that you want No Lynch is pretty different from just not having voted yet, especially early in the day).

More importantly, I agree with Aventine, it's really early to just jump to a self-preservation vote for the next biggest wagon. I honestly can't tell if this is meant to be a self preservation vote or if you just really think Valmark is a wolf - you say here that you're doing it "since he's targeting me, and I'm no wolf, which means he probably is.", which makes it sound like that's the reason for your vote, but then why bring up that he's the next largest wagon?
IDK, but if it is a self-preservation vote, it feels like you're using self-preservation as an excuse not to wolf-hunt. Got any thoughts on the two night-kills?

Well, Valmark.
Let's go back to the discards, shall we?

It is a reasonable assumption that a player is unlikely to be either of the things on their discarded card. (It's not impossible, but the fact that you discarded those means you didn't want them. )

Valmark discarded Town Protective, which makes it unlikely that he is town or protective (although possible, given the chance of duplicates)

I, on the other hand, discarded Mafia Innocent, which makes me unlikely to be mafia or Innocent-looking. Just in terms of probability, I am less likely to be scum.

Furthermore, given the large number of town discards, I believe there are far more scum than townies, reducing the odds of townies voting for each other by a significant amount.
Therefore, I suspect the people who jumped on the wagon against me quickly on flimsy grounds of being a scum faction.
Valmark, Elenna, and Aventine, this means you.

For most things, yes, if someone discarded that thing they are less likely to be it. But I expect there to be a lot of town:

Yes. The traditional deck used for Greater Idea/Greatest Idea has about 83 town, 22 mafia, 18 wolf, 9 alien and 2 cult roles in the list. This deck is being made by me to fit the number of players exactly and reduce variance to make it unlikely that one faction will automatically win the game, but I probably won't release the exact specifics of the deck being used.

That traditional deck has 132 cards, 83 of which are town. We used 21*3 = 63 cards, so if it's the same proportions, there would be 83/132 * 63 = ~40 town cards. If you assume nobody had 3 town cards because of Unavenger wanting to give everyone "a decent choice", that means that means maybe one person had only one town card. Mind you, Unavenger likely decreased the number of town cards to, again, give people a decent choice. But still, I figure it's quite likely that most people got two town cards.
(And yes, I know I implied earlier that I didn't think many people got two town cards. But that was before I actually looked at the numbers.)

Also, the possible low number of town decreases the odds of townies voting for each other, I guess, but only in the sense that it decreases the number of town votes total. It also decreases the odds of town voting for scum just as much.

Also, it sounds like you're suggesting that the three of us are the same faction? It seems super unlikely that three members of one faction would all immediately jump onto the same wagon? This really feels like you're tunnelling on the people who voted for you at the expense of finding actual scum.

[bc56]

Well then, maybe you can explain to me why a joke vote that I literally said was a placeholder in its post is such a big deal.

I think that at the very least Valmark, probably Aventine, and maybe you are scum trying to protect Lord Athos, since he's the one I picked while placeholding.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

kgato503

The Logan vote is a null read, since it is the first random-vote. Stays absent from the AV/DukeGod debate for obvious reasons.

Votes Duck for a little while on Day 2, for a half joking reason. Breaks the tie between DukeGod/Cao in my favor, even though DukeGod would have been lynched already based on tying rules.

Only thing I can draw is that I doubt Duck is a cultist with him.

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smasher

The vote for bc to start isn't as weird as moving off to the No Lynch when saying that's not interesting. Not sure it connects the two though.

Votes Valmark and then backs down quickly, votes me over DukeGod. Doubt Valmark is a Wolf with him.

---

Today's Stuff:

We think Aliens stole a copy of the mafioso kill then, and both mafia and wolves intended to kill kgato? That's what I got from the updated text.

It's possible the cultists are all gone? It depends on how many cultist cards were given but 4 are accounted for and if they were able to recruit on either night. On that same note, I don't think we can read into Unavenger's original stats for the deck at all, since that's twice the number of cultist cards already.

Werewolves are probably still around, but it's possible there was only one. We've only seen one Werewolf card discarded and one from a player though so I assume there are more.

If the mafia strongman volunteers to be lynched, I'd be fine with that. Aliens could theoretically turn a Mafia kill on the Mafia themselves if they keep controlling it.

---

I'm going to vote bc56, at least until he supports his case on Valmark a bit more or present a case on someone else. On Day 2 his only posts were to jump on the case against me, without any other thoughts on what was going on. Today, the joke vote and reactionary self-preservation vote. Also...

It is a reasonable assumption that a player is unlikely to be either of the things on their discarded card. (It's not impossible, but the fact that you discarded those means you didn't want them. )

Except...

In conclusion, I believe Caoimhin is a cultist, and either AV and Caoimhin, along with any other cultists that might be out there, made a goal of converting as many town as possible without regard to winning, or it was a panicked move by Caoimhin as a cultist without thinking about how it would be seen.

CaomhinTheCape discarded Cultist Protective

So bc's view on this changed for yesterday or felt I was an exception. Not sure this makes him bad, but pointing out that his view has changed.

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Vote Count

Valmark 2(Xihirli, bc56)
Xihirli 1 (Duck999)
bc56 4 (Valmark, Elenna, Aventine, CaomhinTheCape)


No Lynch 0 ()

Not Voting: Lord Athos, Apogee1
No Posts: Logan1996, trtl, BasketOfPuppies, JoyWonderLove, flat_footed

[Valmark]

Well then, maybe you can explain to me why a joke vote that I literally said was a placeholder in its post is such a big deal.

I think that at the very least Valmark, probably Aventine, and maybe you are scum trying to protect Lord Athos, since he's the one I picked while placeholding.

It was because there's no need to vote at all if you're just gonna read through. In any case the discussion did evolve from there.

And I know it's pointless to say it, but I'd have had the same reaction to anybody you voted as long as it was with that same wording (and I believe everyone else too, but I could be wrong)

Today's Stuff:

We think Aliens stole a copy of the mafioso kill then, and both mafia and wolves intended to kill kgato? That's what I got from the updated text.

It's possible the cultists are all gone? It depends on how many cultist cards were given but 4 are accounted for and if they were able to recruit on either night. On that same note, I don't think we can read into Unavenger's original stats for the deck at all, since that's twice the number of cultist cards already.

I'm going to vote bc56, at least until he supports his case on Valmark a bit more or present a case on someone else. On Day 2 his only posts were to jump on the case against me, without any other thoughts on what was going on. Today, the joke vote and reactionary self-preservation vote. Also...

So bc's view on this changed for yesterday or felt I was an exception. Not sure this makes him bad, but pointing out that his view has changed.

Yeah, that's correct on it being likely that the strongman kill got copied.

It's also likely there aren't other original cultists, imo. There again, there could have been some more cultists card or some converted townie.

Good call on the change in views. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's a discrepancy, which is more akin to what wolves fall prey to from what I learned (but not only them)

[Logan1996]

Hmm. I'll go BC56

[Lord Athos]

Honestly? I think the case on Bc56 is flimsy.

I don't know if a joke vote, and an admittedly weird reaction because of being called out for it is a good reason to vote for him.
I think that "change of opinion" is more him forgetting that Cao discarded Cultist.

Or am I missing something?

Can someone do a votes overview? Sorry, I'm at work, don't have much time to do it myself.