Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Rogan]

Sorry, this took longer than expected/ planned. I'm a bit distracted and on mobile.

Huh, I remember reading it too just didn't mark it down. Reflected below.


As the person in question, I prefer a non-lethal method myself. I'm sure there's a non-lethal method we can use overnight to check/confirm.

Again, this is a biased perspective but I'm not sure how much it'll shine light on other players? I got 4 votes against me but Meta didn't seem committed and AV hasn't said anything about me after the random vote.

Spoiler: Read list

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AvatarVecna - Mostly jokes and stuff, until saying they have a kill. Even though AV could be bold enough to claim they have killing power as SK, I don't think she is. Though, 3 kills going around at night will be a lot.
Captain Cap - asks about the setup and says there's the implication of SK and Survivor. Does not have strong feelings about wagons.
Snowblaze - Has helped drive discussion. Even if the wagon is on me, she's at least trying to get something going. Town.
Batcathat - Talks a lot in the first two pages, but there's something I don't like about his comment on the ominous powers. The first part: "If the whole "ominous presence" bit is something more than just flavor..." seems weird. Overall seems like a lot of talking but very much hedging bets/not making waves.
Taffimai - Has been engaged in the game, nothing that seems wolfy but not enough for me to confidently read town.
gac3 - I don't like gac3 right now. Just a comment of something that may be wolfy, but doesn't say it.
Book Wombat - Have completely changed my mind from last post. My original impression was that BW was around a lot, but looking back it's mostly jokes/talking about stuff outside the game.
Fext - Apparently helpful in finding the SK, bold statement for Day 1. Would like to see a vote down though.
Moonfly7 - Engaged in discussion of setup, fine for now.
Xihirli - Would like to see more.
BladeScape - Again, I want to see more, especially a vote. But at least gave an opinion on Snow and Rogan.
Elenna - Only a couple posts but engages right away. Town ish lean for now.
Metastachydium - Engages throughout the day, discusses wagons, shares opinions. Town.
Rogan - Seems town to me. Is helping drive discussion and asking lots of questions.
SupaGoof - hasn't shown up yet, but rarely posts on weekends.

TL;DR
Metastachydium, Moonfly7, Fext, Taffimai are new and I wouldn't vote them anyway.

Rogan, Snowblaze have done a lot to push discussion forward. Off chance that Wolf!Snow pushed my wagon to protect a buddy with votes (Rogan, Xihirli, or BCH at the time) but I'd lean Town trying to help (even at my expense).
Elenna has only a couple posts but engages right away, so that's find.
SupaGoof has no posts.
AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Captain Cap will survive through the Day, but would love to know any opinions.
BladeScape gave an opinion on Snow and Rogan, but hasn't put down a vote.
Batcathat, Book Wombat have a deceptive amount of posts. Worried about them.
gac3 should come back and tell us what he's thinking.


Also, @Bladescape and @Fext I'd like to see votes from you two, too.

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Spoiler: Vote Count

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BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Taffimai
Batcathat (1): Moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Rogan
Taffimai (1): gac3
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext, BladeScape

I wouldn't put much weight on the mistake at the vote count. The first count WAS correct, after all. Gac voted later. It's something to keep in mind, but I don't see an advantage of faking the count in this way.

Are you sure about some role being able to check you because you have some secret info? Last U-Pick had a player with the roles list, if I remember correctly.

If you flip town, the players voting you should be checked for a hostile motive and everyone should keep an eye on me to see if I have too much information.
If you are scum, everyone you could have pushed to 3 votes should be checked for a possible team. Yes, this includes myself. I know I am town, but everyone else can't be sure.
And, as Snow mentioned (see below) if you flip scum, Elenna is very unlikely to be in your team. Same for AV and Meta. They could easily change their vote, since they didn't have much reason to vote for you.
Flipping you will only prove your alignment, but it will give hints for multiple other players.

Regarding the read list, many entries are short compilation of info without a read. That's not surprising, since there are not many things to go by and if I had to do a read list, many entries would be "no idea" as well.
But along with the TL;DR part, it looks a bit like you're trying to make up for the lack of real contributions with a lot of empty words.
I like the observation about BCHs ominous presence comment. Bat do you still doubt the warning had a mech meaning? If yes, why?

This immediately felt off to me. This is what I had previously commented on. The wording of "you usually live long, would you mind getting lynched day 1" seems to imply that we should try to lynch off of some kind of fairness and not based on "looking for wolves".
The reason I was hesitant to mention this is two fold. 1. It might just be a stupid reason. Lots of stupid reasons are given in the first round of votes and it probably wasn't meant to be taken seriously. 2. I have to question whether the wording would have stood out if it wasn't me being named in red.



I don't know whats up with the second part with "bat you really want to kill me?" It feels like the statement, "even if I am a wolf, you shouldn't kill me." But idk.


I'm not sure I support the logic for giving me town points here. Because, yes I did try to avoid calling them out, but if I was a wolf, I probably wouldn't have mentioned it at all. Hard to say for sure. I haven't been a wolf in so so long.



This has already been corrected but i quoted this one to point out that I had voted. So the assertion that I hadn't stands out. Especially since I had so little posts to reference.



This is a major logical fallacy unless I'm completely missing something. "It's better to let people know there is one than to hunt them from relative safety.

So you told us day 1. Yet if I remember right, we will get fluff for kills. So unless the kill is blocked we will know by the start of day 2. How much could we possibly do to hunt them in that amount of time? Meanwhile you presumably could have actually used your powers. I find this to be very SUS logic.



I had the same thought but given my above point, I'm still not convinced they definitively aren't the serial killer.



Wait a second... What are the odds that two town members would get specific references to the serial killer in their QT? I originally thought AV was just referencing Fext but it seems like they also are confirming the serial killer. This is a genuine confusion. I wasn't in the last UPick. So what are the odds that two townies would get serial killer targeting powers and confirmation and that one of them isn't a serial killer?

Well, when there is no good reason to suspect someone as wolf, voting for a fair distribution of the lynch sounds like a good enough reason. Sure, it's only slightly better than random, but what do you expect from the first post of the game?
So, thinking about it some more, I think I should not give you town points for not voting me with a OMGUS, explanation. Maybe even a slight scum lean, since it could be a subtle way to accuse me which didn't work out. Opinions, anybody?

The "Bat do you really want to kill me?" was a joke reply to a vote I don't take terribly serious. But your reading is partly right. I think I am bad at hiding my allies. See love letter. When my joke / distance vote for AV suddenly gained traction and put her in the lead, I was getting nervous. So keeping wolf!me alive might be more helpful than lynching me immediately.

Gac, do you think the mistake stands out in a negative way? What do you think would be the reason to fake it?


I'm not sure if I understand your line of thought correctly. You say Fext didn't use an optimal strategy, so he is scum? The same logic was used by AV last game to push a misslynch. In addition, let's assume Fext has a way to survive a night kill (or every kill by the killer). By going public when the topic of SK was discussed, he doesn't lose much, but gains some support by town. Sure, it could be a trick, but it would be quite bold.


Somehow, I am getting the impression you are suspecting everyone and everything... AV might still be the killer? Why would AV tell us she has some special knowledge about the killer while she is the killer herself? Sure, she gains a bit of town cred, but she gains even more attention. Seems like a bad risk/reward ratio.


Now, those are good questions. I think, there is currently the hypothesis that every killing power has a line about the SK. It would be nice to get confirmation for this, but this would require yet another killing power to be active.
My own vague impression is, Fext and AV had different sources. I could speculate some more, but I am not sure if this would be helpful.

Morning. My QT appears to be working.

In other news: yeah, Fext is almost certainly a neutral trying to kill the Serial Killer. Would still appreciate confirmation, though. Also, Fext, if you are a neutral, what happens to you if the SK dies before endgame?

Noting for future reference: Elenna/Caoimhin not w/w, but if Caoimhin flips town suspect Elenna (fourth vote could be seen as opportunistic/piggybacking off my fairly weak reasoning).

That being said, I’m not really a massive fan of Caoimhin’s reads list. A good portion of it is kind of IIOA-y and the read on me is just. Caoimhin should know that I’m perfectly capable of “helping drive discussion” as a wolf. Feels like TMI.

Leaving my vote where it is, then, unless a better option presents itself.

I second Snows questions for Fext.
The parts about Cao are included in my post above. Mostly quoting this since I referenced it already.

I absolutely intend to try and get AV lynched at some point (if they are one of the hostiles, that's gonna hurt; also, I'm not sure I'm comfortable with them having a kill power, even if its use sounds conditional and limited), but not quite yet. They can be a useful asset, and the real risk lies in letting them live to the endgame.

The general notion of this post is easy to understand. I was paranoid about AV in PJ as well, which resulted in a killed Seer. Okay, AV got back from the dead and helped town win the game but this was not planned.
The problem I see is the specific plan. You want to get her lynched. Not checked. I'm totally in favor of checking, but simply lynching AV out of principle is a bad move I am not willing to support. See also Snows reply (not quoted, I have nothing to add)

Anything you wanna ask about?

I'm an open book.

You might be, but I don't speak the language this book is written. But maybe I can learn this language...
I noticed you ask many questions. Why?
Do you have any reads? Any people you don't want to die for other reasons?
And all the questions asked by Meta.

That's me, the wombat you all love (and maybe hate).


Maybe it was a general addendum to all kill powers? Dunno.

So you don't have a killing power?
Oh, and are you The Three Investigators (Die drei ???, in German)? This would be a hilarious way to hide that you added your role to your Sig.

I'm just worried about AV. They are too good to trust, that's all.
Also, I might have started the wagon on the Cape, but it's hardly my original joke reason that has folks pile up on him like that.



Yup. What are those "reasons"? Why do you suspect the Wombat? What's this "I had a thought about voting, but then I decided not to" business about? Stuff like that.



I kind of doubt that. What purpose would that serve?

You seem to be a bit defensive here. It's not your fault people are voting for Cao. But you are still doing so yourself.
Do you think he is a wolf? Why / Why not?
If you don't think he is a wolf, why are you still voting him?

Please note I can imagine a reason or two to vote for Cao, so I don't want to say you are wolfy for doing so. But I want to hear your reasons in your own words.

For you, the question as well:
Do you have a killing power?

[Captain Cap]

I'm willing to confirm there's a serial killer unless my kill power is lying to me.

Okay, I 99% don't believe this statement: it wouldn't be new for AvatarVecna to claim something false at the beginning for whatever reason. Are they a baddie? Are they trying to draw the baddies' attention for tonight? I have no idea, but I see absolutely zero reasons to believe their words or for them to come out as a vigilant at this point of the game if they truly are.

They can be a useful asset, and the real risk lies in letting them live to the endgame.

And then the "useful asset" gains trust by simply being useful, people stop questioning their true motives and once the inconvenient truth comes to light it's too late to actually do anything about it.
I'm sorry, but given what happened in the last Upick, I think the "useful asset" argument is not a good reason by itself to keep a potentially dangerous opponent alive.

[Snowblaze]

I mean, just before my wagon happened I was thinking "gamestate feels kind of stagnant, maybe wolves don't care that Caoimhin is likely to die".

Then the gamestate stopped being stagnant.

There's definitely a world where bladescape is trying to save his buddy Caoimhin, but that way lies confbias and paranoia.

I'll ISO Caoimhin, see where that gets me.

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO

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I've already explained my thoughts on the initial BCH vote (speaking of BCH, they seem a bit quieter than usual. Any particular reason?)

The reasons for voting BCH are understandable. Not so much a fan of "isn't putting out a random vote the townie thing to do?" especially since iirc Rogan was randomly voting at the time, and just wasn't ready to seriously vote Cao.

The early reads are fine, so is pressuring bladescape for a vote.

I get the "I don't see how it would shine light on other players" thing. That's definitely a thought processes I've had as town.

I already mentioned my issues with the reads list, but another thing I kind of feel is that there's a lot of reads that don't say very much and then the tl;dr kind of just repeats a lot of what was there. Yes, there are a lot of people who haven't done very much AI stuff yet, but in that case why make a full reads list?

*shrug* I'm allowed to agree with someone on some points and still think they're a wolf.

Also there's been a bit of a theme of poking people for content rather than actually having and voting wolfreads. Which I'm not too much a fan of, it suggests a wolf struggling to find a plausible push.

tl;dr I'm okay with my Caoimhin vote rn, I feel like they have a decent chance of flipping wolf.

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Got to go. Will hopefully be able to at least check in before EOD. Please don't lynch me ;)

[Captain Cap]

I'm still not sure about this Cao matter, but given the amount of conversation it has spawned, mafia or not his death would be a pretty decent source of intel at this point.

[Book Wombat]

So you don't have a killing power?
Oh, and are you The Three Investigators (Die drei ???, in German)? This would be a hilarious way to hide that you added your role to your Sig.

Pffft, ein drei-für-eins Deal. Wäre schön lustig.
But no, I do not have a killing power.
A question for you, are you a "LIE DETECTOR" or something similar?

[Metastachydium]

The general notion of this post is easy to understand. I was paranoid about AV in PJ as well, which resulted in a killed Seer. Okay, AV got back from the dead and helped town win the game but this was not planned.
The problem I see is the specific plan. You want to get her lynched. Not checked. I'm totally in favor of checking, but simply lynching AV out of principle is a bad move I am not willing to support. See also Snows reply (not quoted, I have nothing to add)

…
You are very correct (and now I wonder why Snow and especially Captain Cap, who posted after you, didn't point that out). We should check AV, the sooner the better. In case we lose the seer(s?) early, however, I'll begin to advocate not letting AV and their kill power anywhere near the endgame.

You seem to be a bit defensive here. It's not your fault people are voting for Cao. But you are still doing so yourself.
Do you think he is a wolf? Why / Why not?
If you don't think he is a wolf, why are you still voting him?

Please note I can imagine a reason or two to vote for Cao, so I don't want to say you are wolfy for doing so. But I want to hear your reasons in your own words.

Yes, I am. The defense he put up was a bit lackluster, and more importantly, I have no clear enough wolfreads to start moving my vote around. I don't like what bladescape is doing, but if it's not some harmless trolling… Well, it would be a really bold move, audacious, even, to make his posts stink that bad if he was with the dogs. As for Snow, she's being more useful than Caoimhin right now, so I'm in no hurry to kill them.

For you, the question as well:
Do you have a killing power?

No.
Speaking of which, I'd like to hear Xihirli's answer to the same question.

I'm still not sure about this Cao matter, but given the amount of conversation it has spawned, mafia or not his death would be a pretty decent source of intel at this point.

I concur. (Which is another reason why I'll probably stay on Cao unless something big happens before the day ends.)

[AvatarVecna]

…
You are very correct (and now I wonder why Snow and especially Captain Cap, who posted after you, didn't point that out). We should check AV, the sooner the better. In case we lose the seer(s?) early, however, I'll begin to advocate not letting AV and their kill power anywhere near the endgame.

Plural. And the one I already mentioned can't hurt anybody except SK.

[Metastachydium]

Plural. And the one I already mentioned can't hurt anybody except SK.

Hm. Logically, that should be Fext (or someone with the role Fext claims to have). How do you know this?

[Batcathat]

I'm still not sure about this Cao matter, but given the amount of conversation it has spawned, mafia or not his death would be a pretty decent source of intel at this point.

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at too. I'm not sure I quite understand the case against Cao, but I can't see any better ones and him flipping should indeed give us something more to go on.

I like the observation about BCHs ominous presence comment. Bat do you still doubt the warning had a mech meaning? If yes, why?

I didn't really mean that I doubted it much, just not ruling out the possibility that it didn't (I don't know about Unavenger, but if I ran I game I'd probably be open to making some unfounded warning just to see people freak out about it ). But I do agree that it most likely did have some reason behind, whether in relation to a serial killer, some wolf power or some other hostile role.

[AvatarVecna]

Hm. Logically, that should be Fext (or someone with the role Fext claims to have). How do you know this?

What? No, I'm talking about this, and I'll clarify what I'm saying better:

We should check AV, the sooner the better. In case we lose the seer(s?) early, however, I'll begin to advocate not letting AV and their kill power anywhere near the endgame.

Not "kill power". "Kill powers". Plural. And one is only anti-SK. I don't expect to get to use either of them, though.

[Metastachydium]

What? No, I'm talking about this, and I'll clarify what I'm saying better:

Not "kill power". "Kill powers". Plural. And one is only anti-SK. I don't expect to get to use either of them, though.

I thought the first half of your comment referred to the seer/seers thing.
Also, two kill powers, one of which would look better on Fext unless they are lying? I like this less and less. We'll need you, and for that matter, Fext checked, preferably this night.

[Book Wombat]

Not "kill power". "Kill powers". Plural. And one is only anti-SK. I don't expect to get to use either of them, though.

That seems kind of... limited? It could make sense for some kind of revenge/beast role I guess? Dunno.

Question for anyone who wants to answer, does anyone have a role with something other than one passive and one active power?

[Rogan]

So much waffle.

Needs some syrup.



Here, let's number them for convenience:

1. Reasons are reasons. Pretty easy.

2. Wombat's posting has been mildly in what I think is wolfish.

3. I had a thought about voting. But then I decided not to.

Seems like all of them are fairly self-explanitory.

Blades, my gut says you are not a wolf. My brain is saying you are deliberately unhelpful. I hope this will change tomorrow.

So I'm new, and I think that means that day one you should take what I say with a grain of salt. But this above post feels very fishy to me. The bit about caoimhin knowing they're "perfectly capable of helping drive a discussion" rubs me the wrong way in ways I can't explain. It's a perfectly reasonable thing to say but it feels almost to vague, a good deflect that isn't gonna be questioned but just feels WAY to artificial to me. I don't have anything concrete though, just a newbies gut feeling, so take that as you will.


Yeah AV and Fext have rocketed up on my suspicion meter. I might change my vote to one of them later.

Also I just want to say: for whatever it's worth, I don't think it's Cao. The reasoning he posted felt like the logic of someone wanting to catch the wolves, or at least solve a mystery. He didn't seem like he was trying to protect himself to me, which honestly he should have been. Either he's got a death-activated power, and/or he's not a wolf or SK and wants to catch them above survival.

Just my two cents on that though.

I know your position very well. I had similar feelings about AV in my first game.

Snow is a skilled player and very good at avoiding the lynch, even if the lynch would be deserved. She is also right when she said that she is capable of driving the discussion as a wolf.
Your gut feeling can still be right, but I would not put too much emphasis there.

For AV and Fext, I would advise against a vote today. Their public claim let's them stand out, but it seems a bit too obvious for a wolf to do so.

If you want me to elaborate, feel free to ask.

A death activated power is unlikely. There was something in the OP about roles that win by getting lynched being forbidden.

Pffft, ein drei-für-eins Deal. Wäre schön lustig.
But no, I do not have a killing power.
A question for you, are you a "LIE DETECTOR" or something similar?

Do you really want me to answer this?

[AvatarVecna]

I thought the first half of your comment referred to the seer/seers thing.
Also, two kill powers, one of which would look better on Fext unless they are lying? I like this less and less. We'll need you, and for that matter, Fext checked, preferably this night.

Sounds good to me.

[Captain Cap]

(and now I wonder why Snow and especially Captain Cap, who posted after you, didn't point that out).

As for me, it seems AvatarVecna is currently at no risk of getting lynched, so discussing about keeping them alive or not is relatively pointless right now. Besides, I'm not really advocating for their death (my vote is still on them mainly because none of the main wagons attract me), I'm simply saying that I don't trust them and that we shouldn't decide the fate of a possible enemy basing only on their potential usefulness (which is usually proportional to their danger).

[moonfly7]

That's good. I like fish.

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Reasons:

You might have dipped in red paint.

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Information Instead of Analysis.




I mean. I was partially seeing what would happen if I said that.

Results inconclusive.

But do you know what is conclusive?

Snowblaze

I'm going to prod and see what pops out.

(Quick! Here's your chance to say "Blade is bandwagoning" and vote me! Sale ends soon!)

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Last two town games I called her as town correctly.

Slight ego makes me sus her because I am not calling her as town yet.

While I appreciate the concurrence I don't think Snow is Conclusive, just suspicious enough that I think we need them out.

Okay. I have a wagon now. Duly noted.

I quite liked Moonfly's recent posting (even though I disagree with it!) so if there's a wolf voting for me I'd say it's bladescape. I don't particularly have any reasons to wolfread him, though.

(Also, last two town games? I'm fairly sure I've only played with town!you once.)

Doing family stuff late afternoon/early evening so I don't know how much longer I'll be around, but I'll try and get some proper reads/thoughts/general stuff in thread in the next hour or so.

Honestly the fact that you aren't wolfreading me when I come out of left field rapidly defending someone I haven't mentioned after almost a whole day of minimal posting is suspicious. New guy suddenly rapidly posting defense of someone with stupid confidence would set off MY wolf alarms. Once again, zero hard evidence but every comment puts me deeper in suspicion of Snow.

Oh yeah one of those games I was a wolf in, wasn't I.

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This is a surprisingly accurate description of my "Mysterious" play.

Though I will straight up say that Elanna vote had nothing to do with power or role.

It was entirely me poking fingers.

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I wanna say Moonfly is just town too.

Can go in my little box of townies.

Fair enough, the Elena guess was me throwing a wild guess. And I appreciate the vote of confidence.

Snowblaze's posts feeling vaguely suspicious just means Snowblaze is being Snowblaze. In my experience, there's nothing Snow has said that is out of the ordinary for Town!Snow.

I can't take that at face value or as any evidence at all. I have neither the experience with Snow or any reason to trust you to take what's basically conjecture as a reason to back down. Granted I also don't have much more than gut instinct on this either, but I'll trust my gut over a vague "they're just like that" any day.

I'm still not sure about this Cao matter, but given the amount of conversation it has spawned, mafia or not his death would be a pretty decent source of intel at this point.

Not disputing but legitimate question: how does the death help? Do we get a role reveal when they die? If not how on earth could it help? Beyond reactions to the death I can't see lynching them, or anyone for that matter, being an investigative tool. If someone could explain it to me that would be great, because I'm sure I'm missing something on this since I'm new.

…
You are very correct (and now I wonder why Snow and especially Captain Cap, who posted after you, didn't point that out). We should check AV, the sooner the better. In case we lose the seer(s?) early, however, I'll begin to advocate not letting AV and their kill power anywhere near the endgame.




Yes, I am. The defense he put up was a bit lackluster, and more importantly, I have no clear enough wolfreads to start moving my vote around. I don't like what bladescape is doing, but if it's not some harmless trolling… Well, it would be a really bold move, audacious, even, to make his posts stink that bad if he was with the dogs. As for Snow, she's being more useful than Caoimhin right now, so I'm in no hurry to kill them.



No.
Speaking of which, I'd like to hear Xihirli's answer to the same question.



I concur. (Which is another reason why I'll probably stay on Cao unless something big happens before the day ends.)

I don't agree with that assessment of cao and snow, but I agree that AV is a danger but one we deal with later, but not TOO much later.
All snow has provided is defenses for themselves and lack luster evidence or concurring with other people. Cao's recaps, lists, and debates have helped create a better picture of what's going on for me, at least. And while I disagree with a lot of what he said I think he's still providing more than Snow, especially because that one REEKS deception to me.

Plural. And the one I already mentioned can't hurt anybody except SK.

So you say that, but it's convenient that no one can confirm you aren't a threat, isn't it?

Personal theory time:

AV and Fext are not both possessing anti SK roles. Ones the Serial Killer, and the other is the Anti SK. Just a thought, but a potent one in my mind.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Are you sure about some role being able to check you because you have some secret info? Last U-Pick had a player with the roles list, if I remember correctly.

If you flip town, the players voting you should be checked for a hostile motive and everyone should keep an eye on me to see if I have too much information.
If you are scum, everyone you could have pushed to 3 votes should be checked for a possible team. Yes, this includes myself. I know I am town, but everyone else can't be sure.
And, as Snow mentioned (see below) if you flip scum, Elenna is very unlikely to be in your team. Same for AV and Meta. They could easily change their vote, since they didn't have much reason to vote for you.
Flipping you will only prove your alignment, but it will give hints for multiple other players.

Regarding the read list, many entries are short compilation of info without a read. That's not surprising, since there are not many things to go by and if I had to do a read list, many entries would be "no idea" as well.
But along with the TL;DR part, it looks a bit like you're trying to make up for the lack of real contributions with a lot of empty words.

I do not have a roles list.


So, last UPick Game I was lynched because "it would provide info". Gonna follow out your logic and see what y'all would learn.

If I flip Town:
Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna are checked for hostile motive. Keep an eye on Rogan.

If I flip Evil:
Check everyone I could have pushed to 3 votes for scum. That includes: Xihirli, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape. Clear Elenna, AV, and Meta.

Either way, no info on Book Wombat, Captain Cap, Batcathat, Taffimai, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape. For the most part they are passively OK with me getting lynched. Moon has recently defended me, slight points to Blade who have actually made recent votes.

Spoiler: count at the time of my vote

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gac3 (1): Rogan
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (2): Moonfly7, CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting: Snowblaze, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape

Is that the info you're happy to learn when I flip? Cause I see 8 players who haven't commented on me at all. If I flip Town on the lynch, it'll look suspicious in that they avoided talking about me while letting my lynch happen. If I flip Scum on the lynch, it'll look like they had no route to save me and stayed quiet (barring maybe a Snow lynch now?)


You're wrong about me not giving info on the reads list. Maybe I could have said it more plainly but here's the list below:

Rogan, Snowblaze have done a lot to push discussion forward. Off chance that Wolf!Snow pushed my wagon to protect a buddy with votes (Rogan, Xihirli, or BCH at the time) but I'd lean Town trying to help (even at my expense).
Elenna has only a couple posts but engages right away, so that's find.
SupaGoof has no posts.
AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Captain Cap will survive through the Day, but would love to know any opinions.
BladeScape gave an opinion on Snow and Rogan, but hasn't put down a vote.
Batcathat, Book Wombat have a deceptive amount of posts. Worried about them.
gac3 should come back and tell us what he's thinking.

Translating that to reads:
Rogan, Snowblaze as Town (I don't know that I could be more clear on that).
Elenna as Town lean, not as strong as Rogan/Snow.
SupaGoof as No Info. (literally nothing)
AV, Xi, Captain Cap as Neutral. (lack of useful content)
Blade was a small Wolf Lean.
BCH, Book Wombat as Wolf lean.
gac3 vote (implying I think he's Wolf).

I guess I didn't need to reiterate my thoughts but I wanted to order them from Towniest to Wolfiest. I have no info to go on for my Neutral reads, seeing as there's so little info. I gave you 3 people I lean town on, 3/4 I find Wolfish. And the newer players I left out, seeing as I won't vote them today.

[AvatarVecna]

If I flip Evil: Clear AV.

I bussed all my scumbuddies last round. You flipping scum doesn't clear me.

[Batcathat]

Not disputing but legitimate question: how does the death help? Do we get a rope reveal when they die? If not how on earth could it help? Beyond reactions to the death I can't see lynching them, or anyone for that matter, being an investigative tool. If someone could explain it to me that would be great, because I'm sure I'm missing something on this since I'm new.

I'm assuming that's a misspelled "role reveal"? If so, yes, we should get that. So since we'll know for sure whether Cao's town or wolf, we can analyze his interactions with everyone else and hopefully get some clues.

[Rogan]

…
You are very correct (and now I wonder why Snow and especially Captain Cap, who posted after you, didn't point that out). We should check AV, the sooner the better. In case we lose the seer(s?) early, however, I'll begin to advocate not letting AV and their kill power anywhere near the endgame.




Yes, I am. The defense he put up was a bit lackluster, and more importantly, I have no clear enough wolfreads to start moving my vote around. I don't like what bladescape is doing, but if it's not some harmless trolling… Well, it would be a really bold move, audacious, even, to make his posts stink that bad if he was with the dogs. As for Snow, she's being more useful than Caoimhin right now, so I'm in no hurry to kill them.



No.
Speaking of which, I'd like to hear Xihirli's answer to the same question.



I concur. (Which is another reason why I'll probably stay on Cao unless something big happens before the day ends.)

That's a fair and sensible position to take. AV is hard to read and good at manipulation. Not trusting her on reads alone is something I can get behind.

I also can understand your position regarding Cao. It seemed important to me to make sure you are at least a bit committed instead of only voting there as a joke.

Sorry, I didn't remember you already claimed not killing. Thanks for repeating.

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at too. I'm not sure I quite understand the case against Cao, but I can't see any better ones and him flipping should indeed give us something more to go on.



I didn't really mean that I doubted it much, just not ruling out the possibility that it didn't (I don't know about Unavenger, but if I ran I game I'd probably be open to making some unfounded warning just to see people freak out about it ). But I do agree that it most likely did have some reason behind, whether in relation to a serial killer, some wolf power or some other hostile role.

Thanks for your answer as well. It's something to remember in case I join a game hosted by you.
I won't clear you for this, but I don't think I should suspect you in particular either.

What? No, I'm talking about this, and I'll clarify what I'm saying better:



Not "kill power". "Kill powers". Plural. And one is only anti-SK. I don't expect to get to use either of them, though.

So, you have multiple powers, at least two are killing? Wow, you really know how to formulate your role concepts!
Since I only have one power, which is kind of situational, it makes me think you are more likely to be non-town. Not necessarily evil, but not town. Of course your powers could also have some serious limits... can you comment?

That seems kind of... limited? It could make sense for some kind of revenge/beast role I guess? Dunno.

Question for anyone who wants to answer, does anyone have a role with something other than one passive and one active power?

I have one situational active power and something redacted.

[moonfly7]

I'm assuming that's a misspelled "role reveal"? If so, yes, we should get that. So since we'll know for sure whether Cao's town or wolf, we can analyze his interactions with everyone else and hopefully get some clues.

Yeah it is misspelled, fixed that now. Also, I'm now understanding why everyone wants to lynch cao. I still don't agree mind you, but I get it.

That seems kind of... limited? It could make sense for some kind of revenge/beast role I guess? Dunno.

Question for anyone who wants to answer, does anyone have a role with something other than one passive and one active power?

In danger of sounding suspicious or giving away too much, I do.

[Captain Cap]

Not disputing but legitimate question: how does the death help? Do we get a rope reveal when they die? If not how on earth could it help? Beyond reactions to the death I can't see lynching them, or anyone for that matter, being an investigative tool. If someone could explain it to me that would be great, because I'm sure I'm missing something on this since I'm new.

In general, it puts all the votes and discussions in a new, more informed light. In our specific case, if Cao flips town, the fact the arguments used against him are not particularly strong could suggest some hidden motives: perhaps there were too many 2-vote wagons wolves and wolf!Snowblaze decided to take the matter on her hand; or maybe Snowblaze motives were genuine and some wolves simply decided to pile on a safe target. If Cao flips mafia, the recent speed wagon on Snowblaze might turn out to be an attempt by the wolves to save their companion and in any case it would merit our attention.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm still not sure about this Cao matter, but given the amount of conversation it has spawned, mafia or not his death would be a pretty decent source of intel at this point.

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at too. I'm not sure I quite understand the case against Cao, but I can't see any better ones and him flipping should indeed give us something more to go on.

See my post above. I especially don't like that it would give no info on either of you. You're endorsing my lynch without voting me, which seems like you don't want to get blood on your hands.

As for me, it seems AvatarVecna is currently at no risk of getting lynched, so discussing about keeping them alive or not is relatively pointless right now. Besides, I'm not really advocating for their death (my vote is still on them mainly because none of the main wagons attract me), I'm simply saying that I don't trust them and that we shouldn't decide the fate of a possible enemy basing only on their potential usefulness (which is usually proportional to their danger).

High-Key don't like Captain Cap saying my death would be a source of intel but none of the main wagons attracted him.

If I flip Town:
Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna are checked for hostile motive. Keep an eye on Rogan.

If I flip Evil:
Check everyone I could have pushed to 3 votes for scum. That includes: Xihirli, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape. Clear Elenna, AV, and Meta.

Either way, no info on Book Wombat, Captain Cap, Batcathat, Taffimai, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape. For the most part they are passively OK with me getting lynched. Moon has recently defended me, slight points to Blade who have actually made recent votes.

I bussed all my scumbuddies last round. You flipping scum doesn't clear me.

You said it, not me. That only makes my lynch less helpful.

[moonfly7]

In general, it puts all the votes and discussions in a new, more informed light. In our specific case, if Cao flips town, the fact the arguments used against him are not particularly strong could suggest some hidden motives: perhaps there were too many 2-vote wagons wolves and wolf!Snowblaze decided to take the matter on her hand; or maybe Snowblaze motives were genuine and some wolves simply decided to pile on a safe target. If Cao flips mafia, the recent speed wagon on Snowblaze might turn out to be an attempt by the wolves to save their companion and in any case it would merit our attention.

Makes sense, although if Cao does flip wolf I'm not going to have a good time. I petitioned hard for snow and argued for Cao to be saved, looking like he won't make it now sadly. But I'm pretty confident he isn't mafia, if he is I'll be the first to acknowledge that I both messed up, and look very suspicious.

[Captain Cap]

I do not have a roles list.


So, last UPick Game I was lynched because "it would provide info". Gonna follow out your logic and see what y'all would learn.

If I flip Town:
Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna are checked for hostile motive. Keep an eye on Rogan.

If I flip Evil:
Check everyone I could have pushed to 3 votes for scum. That includes: Xihirli, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape. Clear Elenna, AV, and Meta.

Either way, no info on Book Wombat, Captain Cap, Batcathat, Taffimai, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape. For the most part they are passively OK with me getting lynched. Moon has recently defended me, slight points to Blade who have actually made recent votes.

Is that the info you're happy to learn when I flip?

Why not? No flip is ever going to give insight on every player, especially in the first days, when there's not much to form strong opinions on. Besides, 50% of the player base is involved in some way or another in this matter, so it doesn't seem bad at all to me for Day 1.

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High-Key don't like Captain Cap saying my death would be a source of intel but none of the main wagons attracted him.

If Snowblaze overtakes you, we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other.

[moonfly7]

Why not? No flip is ever going to give insight on every player, especially in the first days, when there's not much to form strong opinions on. Besides, 50% of the player base is involved in some way or another in this matter, so it doesn't seem bad at all to me for Day 1.

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If Snowblaze overtakes you, we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other.

I do get what he's saying about you agreeing but not voting either way. Just conjecture, but if I wanted someone dead but wanted to keep myself above suspicion I would do that, exactly. Persuasive, passive, "they're looking very suspicious lets be smart and learn something". But I wouldn't vote, not voting keeps me looking impartial and like an island of reason. I don't think that means your wolf, but I do think your trying to keep your hands clean for your own reasons, because if you really wanted that information you'd cement a vote for the one you thought would answer the most questions.

[Captain Cap]

More importantly, Cao, I see you're rallying against the arguments for your lynching (and reasonably so), but you're failing to give a good reason we should lynch someone else in your place.

[AvatarVecna]

So, you have multiple powers, at least two are killing? Wow, you really know how to formulate your role concepts!
Since I only have one power, which is kind of situational, it makes me think you are more likely to be non-town. Not necessarily evil, but not town. Of course your powers could also have some serious limits... can you comment?

I don't recall saying I had non-kill powers, just saying that I have two kill powers. Not saying I don't have others, either.

"Ywtgiykehconcptfh, aalomoytia."

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So, last UPick Game I was lynched because "it would provide info". Gonna follow out your logic and see what y'all would learn.

If I flip Town:
Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna are checked for hostile motive. Keep an eye on Rogan.

If I flip Evil:
Check everyone I could have pushed to 3 votes for scum. That includes: Xihirli, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape. Clear Elenna, AV, and Meta.

Either way, no info on Book Wombat, Captain Cap, Batcathat, Taffimai, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape. For the most part they are passively OK with me getting lynched. Moon has recently defended me, slight points to Blade who have actually made recent votes.

Why not? No flip is ever going to give insight on every player, especially in the first days, when there's not much to form strong opinions on. Besides, 50% of the player base is involved in some way or another in this matter, so it doesn't seem bad at all to me for Day 1.

AV is saying they shouldn't be cleared for this and with how they bus, that's fair. That means AV is suspicious no matter what. Rogan himself said that people should keep an eye on him either way.

So you get reads on Meta, Snow, Elenna, and Moon (adding in because of recent defense). You maybe get info on Xihirli.

My problem is you're saying this is preferable to dealing with the large group that doesn't seem to care about this lynch one way or the other.

High-Key don't like Captain Cap saying my death would be a source of intel but none of the main wagons attracted him.

If Snowblaze overtakes you, we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other.

Wait, what? You're saying that you don't prefer my wagon over Snow? I'm confused at this.

[Captain Cap]

I don't think that means your wolf, but I do think your trying to keep your hands clean for your own reasons, because if you really wanted that information you'd cement a vote for the one you thought would answer the most questions.

But why? He's already the top wagon, and the second wagon is equally good to me. Do I have to put a vote on one of them just to look good?

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Wait, what? You're saying that you don't prefer my wagon over Snow?

Matter of fact I don't. You can pretty much flip the conclusions you would get in the two cases.

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My problem is you're saying this is preferable to dealing with the large group that doesn't seem to care about this lynch one way or the other.

And how do you deal with them? What's your proposal? This is pretty in line with my previous point:

More importantly, Cao, I see you're rallying against the arguments for your lynching (and reasonably so), but you're failing to give a good reason we should lynch someone else in your place.