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Thread: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
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2021-06-06, 01:25 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
If I weight the odds of the vig being a wolf, the vig being a town and shooting AV, the chance of the wolfkill being Xi and blocked, the chance of the wolf shooting AV, the chance of the wolfkill being anyone else and blocked somehow else?
Yeah, I don't know.
From how the vig claimed to me, and additional information they provided, I am very confident they are in fact the killing zeusling. This doesn't make them town, (though I think they have been towny) but I'm confident enough in them not being a wolf to not be interested in outing them today. If that's wrong, c'est la vie.
But I don't think that makes Xi necessarily a wolf either! I think the dichotomy being pushed here is bad, but again, how to resolve it?
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This seems about correct, yes.
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2021-06-06, 01:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
In that case, who are you planning to vote for Apogee?
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2021-06-06, 01:33 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
1: isn't corroborated in the end of day results.
3: some people are citing grace's responses as against this possibility
4
5: Hard to kill should have recieved that info the fact they are not bringing it up is a huge mark against this possibility
If healing waters knows if his target is attacked, hard to kill definitely deserves to know if they were.
6: same reasons as those two intention doesn't matter.
7
8: there is a theoretical unknown neutral so possible.
Overall yes number 2 does seem the most likely.
The Dichotomy in this case is a matter of possibility. Though there is a 9th possibility.
9) The Wolves didn't do a night kill.
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2021-06-06, 01:37 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
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- Germany
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
No need for me to write another reply for Xi. Apogee has made his decision and gave his reasons.
About the list:
Some posts before, I quoted Gacs statements about the interaction between a wolf power and the wolf kill.
Unless Gac is willing to even further clarify the interaction of lighting kill and wolf kill, I am confident that there are two killing powers.
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2021-06-06, 01:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Good question.
I have one or two questions regarding claims out that could in theory lead me to a better target.
I'm considering trying to find a third option, but that somewhat depends on if I can find one that feels good. Obviously Xihirli is, to some degree, a good option because of the roleblocking. Snowblaze is safer in that we wouldn't kill a member of the town approximately ever, but I'm pretty sure Snow is a neutral despite the whole parent name fiasco. There's a kind of /role parallelism/ with Jeen's role there. I guess I lean Xihirli if there isn't another name that I end up finding who looks just on the face wolfier.
Totadile I saw your above post, and a lot of that seems reasonable, but I guess I'm not fully ready to assume 1 and 5 aren't a reasonable degree of possibility.
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2021-06-06, 01:53 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
I hit the max number of quotes apparently.
A stronger town power is useless if the user doesn't cohordinate with Town.
And I'd rather lynch the Child of Zeus over potentially useful people.
This has been addressed later but still- rogue and AV weren't switched according to the vig.
This. So much this.
A) So yeah, let's kill the person actively contributing?
There is case (C) and (D)- none are wolves or both are.
This again, though I'm more suspicious of the vig.
She has, and wolves would be pretty dumb to push someone to act uncharacteristically.
Again, Xihirli and the vig don't implicate each other. And honestly Apogee1 not revealing the killer's identity is suspicious in itself.
This.
You were.
...you do realize you've contradicted yourself three times by now?
totadileplayz,you look like a wolf climbing on mirrors to justify themselves.
(More replies to follow)Last edited by Valmark; 2021-06-06 at 07:59 PM.
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2021-06-06, 01:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Yep for one simple reason. I dont know what to think I'm trying to sus things out figure out who the wolves are, and this causes me to try to analyze and reanalyze to try to figure out who the wolves are.
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Seriously you do realize I joined these games right because it's a lot easier to sus things out with mechanics then it is from my own jumbled up thought processes.
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2021-06-06, 02:11 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
To be fair, fake-claiming to the supposed town network would be a pretty dumb move.
I'm substantially confused by now- Xi's not actually acting differently. She has switched between "serious" and "jokey" modes pretty often in games (this isn't specifically against you, other said so).
And you're not going to share anything? Even the posts after this look pretty much like trying to not take sides without sharing (almost) any info.
And how does that mean you'll contradict yourself explaining the same thing repeatedly?
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2021-06-06, 02:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
But seeing they have come clear to apogee implies being willing to cooperate now. But just to be save...
@Apogee do you have a statement about the Vig willing to follow your advice now?
Again, Xihirli and the vig don't implicate each other. And honestly Apogee1 not revealing the killer's identity is suspicious in itself.
This.
You were.
...you do realize you've contradicted yourself three times by now?
totadileplayz, you look like a wolf climbing on mirrors to justify themselves.
(More replies to follow)There was no contradiction.
Tot is saying that they can not both be wolf.
So the options tot is considered are:
Xi is wolf, Vig is town
Vig is wolf, Xi is town
Both are town.
Wait, I think I was confused... I will have to read the quotes again and will come back afterwards.Last edited by Rogan; 2021-06-06 at 02:16 PM.
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2021-06-06, 02:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2021-06-06, 02:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
At different points in the day I will look at the evidence propositioned by xihirli mostly, and look at the situation saying okay what does this mean what does this imply? And I notice an interaction between the two at different points I see it and go between one possibility and the other as I look at it from one perspective and another, trying to ferret out the truth. Honestly, the possibilities pointed out by someone else was what allowed me to get out of that rabbit hole and actually see the possibilities as they truly are, and why the vig is only a possible option out of many. This is why I jumped onto it because I wasnt certain how it would shake out, because I couldnt be.
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If you want to lynch me, lynch me. I will never defend myself myself against this because frankly it is a merited point not one I'd do as a wolf, but it is an example of the confusion I was facing when I was trying to look at the xihirli situation.
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2021-06-06, 02:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Again, sorry. I got confused by the quote inside of a quote and mixed something up.
Here is the reply after getting the quotes myself, so I can use them while writing.
Tot is saying one being town means the other is (in his view) a wolf.
But one being wolf does not make the other one town.
So the only option ruled out by his post is "both are town" (so, the opposite of my previous post)
Now, this is a stance that blade seems to have as well AND you supported this post.
Last edited by Rogan; 2021-06-06 at 02:39 PM. Reason: being an idiot
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2021-06-06, 02:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
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2021-06-06, 02:33 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2021-06-06, 02:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
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2021-06-06, 02:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
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- Germany
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
So, Tots stance does not really shift but remains constant.
I am really getting sloppy right now. Sorry.
No, blade does not support the view.
Some small defense for me: currently back to mobile use, which makes organizing and multi quotes harder.
blade. Sorry for turning yourvoteswords around!
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So, as a kind of summary:
Rogan (that's me) is confusing himself.
Tots basic stance remains consistent. It shifts slightly on the amount of certainty.
Valmark is treating this as a contradiction.
I think it's minor enough to not really count.
Is this post correct in all regards?Last edited by Rogan; 2021-06-06 at 02:51 PM.
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2021-06-06, 02:49 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Also wanted to point out voting because you explained your logic is really weird too- tipically you vote someone if you want to, not because you explained why it'd be good.
You were explaining your previous post still- and even then it looks weird that you changed your opinion after a post you contested then for no reason went back to the previous one.
How does going from "One of them must be a wolf" to "Probably one of them is a wolf" to "One of them must be a wolf" mean remaining costant?Last edited by Valmark; 2021-06-06 at 02:50 PM.
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2021-06-06, 02:51 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Location
- Aiur, low orbit
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
3 straight days of rain last weekend resulted in my family rescheduling our Memorial Day get-together to yesterday. Burnt me out like a cheap match so I've been following best I can on mobile.
I don't like either main wagon atm.
•The day I can figure out Xihirli is the day I contact police to get a doppelgänger out of her house.
•I can scry Snowblaze tonight and see who their parent is. Settle the state of their claim.
Totadileplayz/Valmark/Rogan discourse feels like an unnecessary argument to fill space.
Adding my vote to the Valmark. Feels similar to some previous wolf games where he's been very active but wasn't contributing much substance.
Spoiler: Player listApogee
AvatarVecnaTown/Prophecy Child of Apollo(seer)
BatcathatNeutral/Child of Iris
Bladescape
BookWombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Elenna
EmmyNecromancerNeutral/Child of Nemesis
Flat-Footed
Jeenleen
Libro
Mornshine
Murska
Rogan
Rogue_Alchemist
Shal06
Snowblaze
Totadileplayz
Valmark
Xihirli
Zelphas
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2021-06-06, 03:34 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Spoiler: Quotes
@ Blades
Your question for gac was about a double kill being recognizable? I am not sure, so I thought I should ask for clarification.
Spoiler: For Valmark
For Valmark:
I tend to see this "must be a wolf" not as an absolute statement of fact, but rather of personal belief. Like "Unless I get additional info and a reason to believe otherwise, I am confident that at least one of them is wolf" but shorter.
But I can see you getting a different conclusion.
I promise, this is my last public reply about Val/Tot. I got a bad first impression of Vals post and jumped in to call him out. Now I don't think it's telling anymore. If anyone has additional questions about this whole affair, my inbox is empty.
I am willing to change my target (xi) if anybody could come up with another good target or bring evidence for another reason why the wolves got no night kill.
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2021-06-06, 03:55 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
They did, killed the Seer.
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2021-06-06, 03:57 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
About 4 hours left.
Some quick answers to some unquoted questions:
Again, all wolves get access to their normal role power. If they choose to use the kill, they have both powers.
Dionysus induce madness could choose to make someone target themself if they wanted to.
My intent was that passive powers such as the Ares powers would not be impacted by the Dionysus powers. But perhaps I should allow them to block it? Oh well, a discussion for the post game probably.
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2021-06-06, 03:59 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2014
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- Germany
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Last edited by Rogan; 2021-06-06 at 04:03 PM. Reason: wording
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2021-06-06, 03:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
By the by, I guess it's obvious but still, if the Child of Hades (resurrecting one) is Town they should bring back Seer AV.
Otherwise they better have a pretty damn good explanation.
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2021-06-06, 04:05 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
If anyone in this game gets to complain about repetition it is not you.
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2021-06-06, 04:08 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jul 2007
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- Whose eye is that eye?
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
It was pretty abundantly obvious that AV was very useful for Town with his significantly large and well-presented walls of analysis. I can't see any reason a Town vig would fire at someone who's either active and useful Town or a Wolf who's posting so much that they'll certainly incriminate not only themselves but their partners soon enough.
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2021-06-06, 04:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2012
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
This is my main issue with the "Zeusling must be town who accidentally shot town" thing. A wolf has no reason not to fire "blindly" and just luck into killing the seer, while a town vig in this game had the fledgling town network to fall back on to keep something like this from happening. The fact that they didn't make use of the network before firing is... odd.
Apogee's assertion that the Zeusling "seems town" to him is both encouraging and concerning at the same time. It's encouraging, because from the conversation on Day 1 it seems like Apogee's about as close to confirmed town as we can get barring a role flip, so his word is the most trustworthy at the moment. It's concerning, because this vig kill is strange enough that it feels like we need more answers than "the Zeusling shot by accident and swears they're town" to justify it, and the fact that Apogee cannot or will not supply these answers is jarring when placed against his position as the most confirmed town person.
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2021-06-06, 04:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2014
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- Germany
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Now, this is a real argument for a bad target of a vig. It does not state the obvious but irrelevant (they killed the seer) but instead put some focus on the target as AV.
My guess would be, the vig agreed with the observation that AV is skilled at leading town - for good AND for worse.
I am not going to search the quotes, but I am reasonably sure I had read something like that.
Apogee might know better, as he had some talk with the killer.
But there is more: we can kind of test the Vig by letting Apogee pick the target. This option is gone if we go for a kill now.
And we would still need an explanation for there being only one kill. Xi being a wolf is such an explanation. Not the only one, but I have not heard any argument that would rule it out.
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2021-06-06, 04:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
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2021-06-06, 04:48 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2014
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
You made these posts and I think I have replied to them.
But most of the time, you keep saying "They killed the Seer", a statement that is correct, but paints the act in the worst possible way. And you ignore the point that it could not be a deliberate decision to kill the seer.
You also ignore the plan I suggested (let Apogee direct the kill, lynch the vig if he does not comply)
So, would you concentrate on these points instead of repeating the old song of "They killed the seer"
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2021-06-06, 04:51 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Those don't merit a reply. But if you insist:
Why wait on killing a wolf?
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