Petty maths argument within
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Quote Originally Posted by Yuki Akuma View Post
Each die has just more than one third of a chance (2:5) to roll a 7, 8, 9 or 10. 10s don't score double successes, so each die gives you roughly two-fifths health levels.
Quote Originally Posted by Revlid View Post
The simplest way of getting averages in Exalted is to halve the number of dice thrown, since the Exalted (who you're generally playing as) get one success on a 7-9, and two on a 10. So on 100 dice, you'll get an average of 50 successes.

When rolling raw damage, you don't double rolled 10s (except without magic making it so). This reduces the number of successes rolled out of 100 from 50 to 40. Which is closer to a third than a half when you want to do quick-and-rough calculation.

Interesting, but not something I'd want to spend time on in a casual analysis of a fantasy kung-fu fight.
As I said, I've done the maths for this and I can tell you that if you roll ten dice, you will get slightly more than 6 successes, on average, even without doubling tens.
You have a 40% chance of a success on 1d10. On a second d10, you have a 40% chance.
You have a 60% chance of not getting a success on the first time. 40% of that sixty percent, you'll get one the second time.
(40% of 60 is 24, to save you the time)
Which gives you a 64% chance of getting at least one success on two dice.