Honestly I don't think you give the blue Elites enough credit and you give the Zealots a little too much. Blue Elites are just that, Elite. While they'd fall to concentrated las fire, they generally aren't deployed in squads, but as the leaders of Grunt and Jackal platoons and battalions. It's more or less like having a Space Marine or two with every IG Unit, and the effect would be that they'd help score some kills on the guardsman until their underlings were cut down.
I'd say Master Chief is more the equivalent of a Space Marine Special Character, though I don't think he's the equal of Marneus Calgar, more like The Emperors Champion or Captain Tycho (from the Blood Angels). That said, pretty much every chapter has a handful of these Master Chief level heroes running around, so I think it's fair to say that once the Adeptus Astartes intervene, the fight is over for the Covenant. If Master Chief is The Demon, just imagine how they might react facing down nearly a 500 or more such figures, better armed and better armored.
Which dovetails nicely into the point about Needlers. I don't think there's any reason to presume they'd be at all effective against power armored troops. I mean, they're still shrugged off by standard cover, so if the Space Marine is covered head to toe in inches thick plate armor, I think they'll be fine.
I think your best point though are the Brutes. Any brute pack is going to be at least the equivalent of a rowdy mob of orks and an assortment of nobz, which do pose a threat even to the Astartes in large numbers (and Brutes do seem more numerous than Elites even without the civil war). Still though, under armed and under armored, I can't believe there would be enough of them to truly threaten the Astartes, only challenge them.
I think that's a pretty fair comparison too, actually. A Hunter standing at full height is 12 feet tall, but hunched and covering themselves as you see in the game they are only 8 feet, the same height as a Space Marine. Admittedly they're bulkier, but just let that sink in in terms of how truly badass the Adeptus Astartes are.
Literally the only thing comparable to them in size and scale are the most rare and powerful members of the Covenant Military. They dwarf Brutes and Elites and are equipped head to toe in armor not even scratched by conventional Covenant or UNSC weaponry. They're faster, more numerous, and carry automatic weapons capable of downing most Covenant Vehicles under sustained fire.