A fundamental mechanical problem I have with d20/D&D/PF

[Rhynn]

Have to correct the numbers...

Spoiler: Math

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At equal bonuses, you're going to have 5% draws and 47.5% victories for both.

At +0 vs. +4 (a 4-point difference), it's 4% draws, 30% for the lower bonus, and 66% for the higher bonus.

At -1 vs. +4, it's 3.75% draws, 26.25% lower, 70% higher.

At -2 vs. +4, it's 3.5% draws, 22.75% lower, 73.75% higher.

You basically forgot the draws, that's all.

For fun, +5 vs. +15 is 2.5% draws, 11.25% lower, 86.25% higher.

The solutions have been mentioned; multiple dice tend towards averages, etc.

For instance, if you use 3d6 instead...

Spoiler: Math again

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At +0 vs. +4, the odds that the +0 beats the +4 are 14.46%.

At -1 vs. +4, the odds are 9.65% for the weaker.

At -2 vs. +4, the odds are 6.08% for the weaker.

Those odds are lower, but they still look too high, don't they?

For funsies, +5 vs. +15 is 0.99% odds for the lower bonus.

I think Jay R is spot on here, ultimately: the only way you can model this sort of thing well is to not even roll for the average guy against the strongest guy. I really doubt that, over a statistically significant number of tests, we'd see an average guy win at arm-wrestling against a strongest guy even 1% of the time.

It comes down to what you want from the system. D&D 3E is not supposed to model realistic results in arm-wrestling matches with opposed Strength checks; that's not any kind of priority for the system.

Also, Airk is right about choosing better systems for yourself. Excuses are excuses; there's plenty of legally free RPGs, and plenty of RPGs worth money and time. (Also, if you can't spend $20 per book, how the heck can you buy D&D?)


Edit:

one well aimed kick in the groin

fingers in his eye socket (equivalent of one unarmed attack).

punching someone to unconsciousness

Dude, the example was arm wrestling. You either missed the whole point of the OP, or I really feel sorry for anyone who's ever arm-wrestled you.