The more I look at this situation, the less in Poland's favor it seems. Yeah, they have a 3-1 numerical advantage, but there's a huge amount of rebel territory to contend with. I suppose it'll come down to how smart the AI is about keeping its armies intact and how willing the Poles are to wage a protracted war - much like the real life American Revolution.

I also wonder how the people running Poland are going to react to this. It all seems a little out-of-nowhere, and though I'm sure future historians will find plenty of warning signs its possible the people in the moment haven't seen any of them.

Also, given Aleksander's hands-off approach to government, I wonder if this rebellion is even necessary. How would the High King have reacted if the Voivode had simply asked for increased automony? Is that even possible in the game mechanics?