The Jellicle Ball

[JoyWonderLove]

@AV: If a Town member is converted by the Cult one night, and then targetted by the Mafia another, are they reported as a Town-turned-Cult passing? Or exclusively as a Towny being targetted?

4) The game ends when only one non-neutral faction remains.

For Apopgee or whoever it was that claimed the bigger faction wins automatically: Not necessarily true. AV's first post does highlight the normal conditions for a team victory.

Sorry for the general radio silence over here! Also, I shall point at Book Wombat as well for the time being.

Posts saying very - very - little, votes without any clear reason, and then goes.

Ok let's look at the math calmly and slow enough I don't trip up.

WORLD A:Living (assume cult failed a recruit)

4 town 2 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral

After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:

4 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral, A
After night assuming cult doesn't miss and wolves miss cult: 2 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals, town looses this as cult and neutrals win together
After night if cult doesn't miss and wolves hit non leader cult: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals: town has a chance if they vote cult leader exactly
If cult doesn't miss and wolves hit a leader: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals. This is way up in the air and town could win

I guess Old Deuteronmy messes this up to an extent

If BW is not Macavity:
3 Town 2 Cult 2 Wolves 2 Neutral

Not going to case all of these but I think either cult or wolves win here the vast majority of the time. Let me know how town pulls this off if they do. Maybe a Old deuternomy shot onto either macavity or grizabella does it.

WORLD B: Living (assume cult got 2 recruits)

3 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral

After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:

3 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral: Unless wolves hit cult leader cult wins

If BW is not macavity

2 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral. IDK who wins but Old Deuteronomy would be the only town left so town looses

This is all assuming that Jeen (a confirmed Mafia member, that likely wants his 'team' to win) was being honest and the Mafia only has three members to start. I doubt it's true for that reason. Why have none of us questioned whether the Neutrals might be lying? From the start, I blindly assumed gac3 was being honest when he claimed to me in a quicktopic. But, late game, exclusively after we have gone after the most likely candidates for none-Town, and only if we're grasping for targets, I think it's fair to target flat_footed. He pretty much doesn't care enough to post or participate, and allegedly didn't even use his powers last night. All that points to a player that doesn't care if he's voted off (again, much later, we have bigger priorities right now). It's also a way to test if gac3 is lying without losing anyone talkative.

But, as I've already repeated, focus on the more likely Mafia and Cult first.

Also inb4 it's something like JWL macavity, logan and wombat cult and lol at us for fighting in that world.

But nah probably at least one of Valmark and Aventine is bad I just don't really know who

?

Valmark even pointed out my posted role matches (word for word) the real Vanillager text (that I made on the first page). Throw in the Aventine observations and your comments feel off.

Well that puts this into an interesting context:

Yeah, but "That VT was necessarily Macavity" was a BIT OF A STRETCH, don't you think? It seems as though the very fact that they scried as town was used as ammo for them not being, which doesn't make me very happy about it.

What I thought happaned was it was a spillover from the last Day's vote; those other posters claimed they were suspicious of Book Wombat specifically, even then. That night went by with TheCape being Mafia targeted. Then you posted TheCape's supposed PM suggesting "Macavity might be BW or JWL, maybe". Then it spilled over into the previous day's mistrusts of Book Wombat and Macavity's ability to change names. That's the superficial analysis. TheCape and I were actually talking in a "Towncore" first day, but it never really went beyond us. With him gone, and no other Town Core established (?), I'm speculating Jenny was hit by the Cult. Otherwise, she would have knit together the beginnings of another Core by now (or maybe I'm expecting too much of her).

So, Unavenger, I'll leave you to come to your own conclusions about who's being honest. Also, we have a few surprisingly quiet players that have said little to nothing.