Hello again, the detailed statistical analysis continues.

For those playing at home, I've decided to start with builds I can reasonably expect to see at the table and test them against one another.

Further, I excluded abrupt jaunt because it required rules adjudication.

results were interesting with wizard not coming out on top as often as I'd have expected.

Today I'll be addressing the issue of abrupt jaunt. Specifically that the GM needs to rule on how it works.

I considered a lot of rulings but decided to focus on just 2:

(1) abrupt jaunt is a perfect defence. wizard can talk their way out of flat footedness and perfectly dodge any attack

(2) flat footed stops abrupt jaunt but if activated, abrupt jaunt can dodge any attack

This ignores a lot of the common but less effective rulings such as 'Abrupt jaunt only dodges half the time' and 'abrupt jaunt doesn't stop you getting stabbed, you teleport then fall apart as fighter finishes sheathing their sword.' But just these two already give a lot of insight.

The only way fighter wins under option 1 is by saving against both castings of colourspray. This at least makes the maths easy.
Fighter (will save -1): 6% chance of winning
Fighter (will save +4): 25% chance of winning

Under the second scenario the fighter can either win initiative and get the kill or weather the spells. This means I need to break out my probability trees.
fighter (+2 init, -1 will): 46 % chance of winning
fighter (+6 init, -1 will): 58% chance of winning
fighter (+2 init, +4 will): 65% chance of winning

So there you go, even if wizard can talk their way out of being flat footed a bog standard fighter with iron will and a reasonable wis bonus can pull out a win 1/4 of the time.
Without that frankly generous ruling fighter can gain the advantage with either high initiative or a good will save and even your standard nothing special at all fighter still has near coin flip odds of winning.